It’s a short-sighted move and borne from disregard or ignorance of modern analytics.

1. [...]]]> The era of Aroldis Chapman closing for the Reds is here. Like all Reds fans, I thoroughly enjoyed watching Chapman secure the last three outs today against the Yankees. But I can’t abide by the discouraging decision that put him there.

It’s a short-sighted move and borne from disregard or ignorance of modern analytics.

1. Sean Marshall has been great this year (really).  Sean Marshall is pitching more than well enough to keep his job as closer. He has the thirteenth highest strikeout rate (13.19 K/9) and the ninth best strikeout-to-walk ratio (7.0 K/BB) in all baseball. That’s this year and doesn’t take into account blowing away Robinson Cano on three pitches today. That’s elite stuff. His track record at getting important outs is longer than anyone else’s in the bullpen.

When you remove luck, Marshall and Chapman have pitched equally well this year. Chapman has a better K/9 but Marshall’s rate is also extraordinary. Marshall has a lower walk rate (1.88 vs. 2.95) and superior ground ball percentage (60% vs. 41%) than Chapman.

The main difference between the two has been luck. Advanced metrics offers statistics that measure luck – Batting Average on Balls in Play (BABIP), home runs as a percentage of fly balls (HR/FB%) and stranded runners (LOB%) are three. Marshall has the second highest BABIP of all 349 pitchers in the major leagues. His HR/FB% and LOB% are also both extremely high.

What’s important for fans (and organizations) to understand is that all three of these factors are largely out of the pitcher’s control.  One statistic that evaluates pitchers and removes these luck factors is called “expected fielding independent pitching” (xFIP) which is calibrated to the same scale as traditional ERA.

xFIP – Chapman (1.43), Marshall (1.53).

Sean Marshall’s xFIP is lower than any other current closer in the major leagues.

If an organization is strongly committed to incorporating modern analytics into their decision-making, they would evaluate pitchers based on the parts of their performance they can control, not luck.

2.  Starters >> Closers.  Starters pitch 180-200 innings per year instead of 60-70. Closers enter many games with two or three runs leads, sometimes against the weakest part of the other team’s order. In those situations, research shows almost any pitcher can be effective.

My favorite statistic that demonstrates the relative unimportance of closers concerns Mariano Rivera. It’s pretty much uncontested that Rivera is the greatest closer of all time. From 1997, when Rivera became the Yankees closer, to 2008, the Yankees won 97.3% (!) of all games they entered the ninth inning with a lead. So obviously, having a lock-down closer makes a huge difference. Right?

Consider this: From 1951-62 (another 11-year period of dominance for the Yankees, in the pre-closer era, when many pitchers finished games for teams), the Yankees winning percentage when they entered the ninth inning with a lead — 97.3%.

Surprising, but revealing.

The Reds have other pitchers besides Chapman who could be the closer. Chapman has pitched the best so far, but both Logan Ondrusek and Jose Arredondo have pitched brilliantly all year. They are also more accomplished than Chapman from the standpoint of pitching multiple days in a row.

Closers — at their best — simply don’t help a team nearly as much as a starting pitcher. In his 17 seasons with the Yankees, Rivera averaged 2.3 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). Drew Stubbs and Mat Latos have averaged more than that. Rivera has posted four seasons with 3 or more WAR. Mat Latos has already achieved that twice.

The move to the closer role dramatically reduces Chapman’s value to the team. He’ll pitch mostly when the team is already ahead, in situations where other pitchers could essentially fill the same role. Modern analytics again, make this clear.

3. Mismanaging Chapman, Part III.  Moving Chapman to the closer role is probably the only decision that could actually worsen the organization’s mismanagement of Chapman’s talent.

As Dusty Baker’s closer, Chapman will pitch even fewer innings than he does now. So far, Sean Marshall has been used less than every other member of the bullpen, including Alfredo Simon. Last year, Coco Cordero threw 69 innings. Travis Wood, Edinson Volquez, even Dontrelle Willis threw more.

The move solidifies Chapman’s role in the bullpen, unfortunately moving him farther away from joining the starting rotation. At the start of next year he’ll be half way through his 6-year contract with the Reds having contributed a total of only 130 innings. To make matters worse, if the Reds do move him to the rotation in 2013, he’ll be on an innings limit.

—–

Moving Marshall out of the closer role after only fourteen, largely successful innings, gives off a whiff of panic that is surprising for Dusty Baker, who usually sticks with his closers through thick and thin. What happened to the manager who didn’t waver an inch in his support for Cordero even once in four years?

Maybe Baker is simply seizing a way to cement Chapman’s presence in the bullpen. That’s a struggle he’s waged with GM Walt Jocketty for at least a year.

Installing Aroldis Chapman as the closer is a rash decision based on obsolete metrics and flawed reasoning. It’s the opposite of smart, well-informed baseball decision-making. Use whatever adjectives you want for that.

My friend Mike Maffie, who helped me with this post, points out: As the thinking of baseball moves forward, the Reds move backward. Dustyball is the opposite of Moneyball.

The movie ‘Dustyball’ would undoubtedly be shot with a Super 8 camera on black-and-white film.

FINAL Cincinnati Reds 5 New York Yankees 2 W: J. Cueto (5-1) L: C.C. Sabathia (5-2) S: A. Chapman (1) Box Score

POSITIVES —-Johnny Cueto. What can you say at this point? he gave up 2 runs over 7+. His ERA is 1.97. I still don’t know how he [...]]]> Let’s recap today’s titanic struggle….

FINAL
Cincinnati Reds 5
New York Yankees 2
W: J. Cueto (5-1)
L: C.C. Sabathia (5-2)
S: A. Chapman (1)
Box Score

POSITIVES
—-Johnny Cueto. What can you say at this point? he gave up 2 runs over 7+. His ERA is 1.97. I still don’t know how he does it.

–Nifty defense today. I know the Reds’ defense hasn’t been exactly what we’ve wanted it to be, but today it was excellent. The double plays, in particular, contributed to Cueto’s good day.

–Ryan Hanigan does not hit a lot of home runs, so it’s good that he timed his first one so well.

–Other Ryan (that would be Ludwick) drove in three runs today and was 3-5. That’s his best day as a Red so far, right?

–The bullpen. I don’t like Chapman as a closer because I think he should be starting, but you could do a whole lot worse in the 9th.

NEGATIVES
–I could put Heisey here. He has a rough day at the plate, but, you know, C.C. Sabathia is good. This was a well-played game by the Reds. No legit complaints here.

NOT-SO-RANDOM THOUGHTS
–The Reds went 4-3 on a road trip against the Braves, Mets, and Yankees. You’ll take that every time. Four more coming up against Atlanta and then the schedule lightens up a bit (12 straight games against teams under .500) after what has been a pretty difficult stretch.

–I hope Dusty doesn’t turn Marshall into a LOOGY. That would be a giant waste. Similarly, I hope the Reds don’t make Chapman a permanent closer. That would also be a giant waste.

–Cards play the Dodgers tonight, if the lose, the Reds will be half a game out of first. If they win, Reds are a game and a half out. Not bad.

Here’s your game preview. Go Redlegs.

Minor League Player of the Day: Bakersfield Bullpen: The Blaze’s bullpen reeled off 10 scoreless innings of relief work.

AAA

Louisville 9 – Lehigh Valley 2

Chris Valaika went 3 for 4 with a HR and a BB. Kris Negron went 3 for 6 with a HR and a SB. [...]]]> Games Played on 05/19/12

Minor League Player of the Day: Bakersfield Bullpen: The Blaze’s bullpen reeled off 10 scoreless innings of relief work.

AAA

Louisville 9 – Lehigh Valley 2

Chris Valaika went 3 for 4 with a HR and a BB. Kris Negron went 3 for 6 with a HR and a SB. Neftali Soto went 2 for 5 with a HR. Dan Dorn went 2 for 3 with 2 2B and a BB. Bill Rhinehart went 2 for 5.

Sean Gallagher, 5.48 ERA, got the win as he went 6 IP and allowed 1 R on 4 H and 4 BB with 5 K. Carlos Fisher added 1 IP of scoreless relief.

AA

Pensacola 6 – Jacksonville 5

Ryan LaMarre went 3 for 4 with 2 2B and a SB. Joel Guzman went 2 for 4 with a HR and a BB. Brodie Greene went 2 for 5 with a 2B. David Vidal went 2 for 5.

Kyle Lotzkar, 1.10 ERA, got no decision as he went 4 IP and allowed 0 R on 2 H and 4 BB with 7 K. Mark Serrano got the win while allowing 2 R over 2.1 IP of relief. Curtis Partch (1.1 IP) and Donnie Joseph (1 IP) each added scoreless relief outings. Joseph picked up his 9th save.

High A

Bakersfield 4 – Lake Elsinore 2 (16 Innings)

Travis Mattair went 4 for 7 with a 2B. Theo Bowe went 2 for 3 with 3 BB. Redleg Nation Spotlight Player Tucker Barnhart went 2 for 5 with 2 BB. Jaren Matthews went 2 for 7 with a 2B. Donald Lutz walked three times.

Justice French, 1.06 ERA, got no decision as he went 6 IP and allowed 2 R on 6 H and 0 BB with 3 K. The Blaze’s bullpen then reeled off 10 scoreless innings of relief work. Pat Doyle, Brian Pearl, Daniel Wolford, Chris Joyce, and Michael Griffin all chipped in. Griffin picked up the win.

Low A

Great Lakes 14 – Dayton 3

Ryan Wright went 2 for 4 with a 2B. Juan Perez went 1 for 2 with a BB.

Radhames Quezada, 3.65 ERA, got the loss as he went 4.1 IP and allowed 6 R, 5 ER, on 5 H and 2 BB with 2 K.

“Hopefully, he gets back,” Reds manager Dusty Baker said. “He’s such a big part offensively, defensively and even baserunning. [...]]]> Recently, we speculated as to whether it was time to say goodbye to Scott Rolen. Now Jon Heyman and Dusty Baker seem to be pessimistic about the chances that Rolen will make a full return:

“Hopefully, he gets back,” Reds manager Dusty Baker said. “He’s such a big part offensively, defensively and even baserunning. I can tell ‘em what to do to. But he can tell ‘em and show ‘em what to do.”

Pressed as to when Rolen might return, Baker said, “I really don’t know.” Others around the team suggested the return is not certain at any date.

Make of that what you will. None of us know whether Rolen will return. Dusty doesn’t seem optimistic, but let’s not read as much into his comments as Heyman did. All I know is that if Rolen returns, but he’s the Rolen we’ve seen the last year and a half…well, I don’t think that Rolen can help this team on the field.

But hey, I’ll take the Rolen of 2010 pre-All Star Break. Gimme that guy.

Finally, I’ll submit this portion of the Heyman article, without comment:

It’s a big loss for Baker, who likes to have great veterans to help with a team that relies on a lot of young players. New Jersey product Todd Frazier entered today’s game hitting .298 with three homers, including two in New York at Citi Field. But Frazier doesn’t do for this team what a healthy Rolen would do.

FINAL

Cincinnati Reds 6 New York Yankees  3  4  5 WP: Bailey (2-3, 4.34 ERA) LP: Nova  (4-2, 5.69 ERA) S: Arredondo (1)

Boxscore Video Highlights PitchFX for Homer Bailey

POSITIVES

• What, me worry? The Reds are now, in fact, 3-3 on the road trip. They look to win the series against the [...]]]> Let’s recap today’s titanic struggle…

FINAL

Cincinnati Reds 6
New York Yankees  3  4  5
WP: Bailey (2-3, 4.34 ERA)
LP: Nova  (4-2, 5.69 ERA)
S: Arredondo (1)

Boxscore
Video Highlights
PitchFX for Homer Bailey

POSITIVES

• What, me worry? The Reds are now, in fact, 3-3 on the road trip. They look to win the series against the Yankees tomorrow at 1:05 with Johnny Cueto on the mound.

• Joey Votto (MVP) rose to the occasion and drilled a three-run homer to right center, giving the Reds a 5-2 lead in the 5th inning.

• Homer Bailey had another quality start, giving up 3 ER in 6.1 innings. He struck out seven and walked only one. After giving up a home run to Jayson Nix in the 6th inning, Homer didn’t implode or meltdown, didn’t lose his composure or his concentration. He struck out Curtis Granderson with a brutal split finger. Then he struck out Robinson Cano and Alex Rodriguez. Guess he found his out pitch.

• Dusty Baker made all the right moves with the pitching staff today, including pulling Homer Bailey and Sean Marshall when that needed to occur.

• Devin Mesoraco called a strong game, had a double, scored a run and threw out a runner attempting to steal second base. Chris Heisey had two hits in the leadoff role. I’d like to see him stay there tomorrow when Zack Cozart returns.

• Logan Ondrusek and Aroldis Chapman dominated the Yankees. Jose Arredondo was real and spectacular getting the last two outs, for his first major league save.

• Mike Costanzo got his first major league hit and later in the game drove in an insurance the game-winning run with a sacrifice fly.

• The Reds as a team walked four times (Drew Stubbs twice, Votto, Bruce) in forty plate appearances (BB = 10%), leading to one run. What was our margin of victory?

NEGATIVES

NOT-SO-RANDOM THOUGHTS

• All you need to know about the Reds bench is that our DH today was a player who didn’t have a major league hit and who was in an independent league two years ago. This is the Reds’ worst bench ever. And don’t forget Willie Harris was so bad that he already has been demoted.

• If the Reds give up for now on Sean Marshall as the closer, they could turn to either Ondrusek or Arredondo and be in good hands. Moving Marshall to set up gives Dusty Baker another lefty for that role, greasing the wheels for Aroldis Chapman moving to the starting rotation. Just sayin’.

• Top game thread comment (CP): Dusty manages like he’s captaining a huge cruise ship. It takes a while for him to change directions but even he will change eventually. You just hope in the mean time, that the boat doesn’t hit an iceberg.

Discuss the game here. Go Redlegs.

Minor League Player of the Day: Bakersfield SP Tony Cingrani: He got no decision as he went 6 IP and allowed 1 R on 5 H and 0 BB with 12 K.

AAA

Rochester 5 – Louisville 3

Felix Perez went 3 for 4 with a HR and a SB. [...]]]> Games Played on 05/18/12

Minor League Player of the Day: Bakersfield SP Tony Cingrani: He got no decision as he went 6 IP and allowed 1 R on 5 H and 0 BB with 12 K.

AAA

Rochester 5 – Louisville 3

Felix Perez went 3 for 4 with a HR and a SB. Cody Puckett went 1 for 3 with a BB.

Jeff Francis, 4.45 ERA, got the loss as he went 5 IP and allowed 4 R on 8 H and 1 BB with 6 K. Scott Carroll added 1.1 IP of scoreless relief.

AA

Pensacola 2 – Jacksonville 1

Yordanys Perez went 2 for 3. Joel Guzman went 2 for 4 with a SB.

Tim Gustafson, 4.05 ERA, got the win as he went 5.2 IP and allowed 1 R on 2 H and 3 BB with 5 K. Justin Freeman (1.2 IP) and Donnie Joseph (1.1 IP) each added scoreless relief outings. Joseph picked up his 8th save.

High A

Lake Elsinore 6 – Bakersfield 3

Donald Lutz went 2 for 4 with a SB. Theo Bowe went 2 for 4 with 2 SB.

Tony Cingrani, 0.78 ERA, got no decision as he went 6 IP and allowed 1 R on 5 H and 0 BB with 12 K. Brooks Pinckard got the loss allowing 5 R in 1 IP of relief.

Low A

Dayton 3 – Bowling Green 2

Ryan Wright went 2 for 5. Juan Silva walked three times.

Dan Jensen, 2.43 ERA, got the win as he went 6 IP and allowed 2 R on 4 H and 2 BB with 4 K. Carlos Contreras added 2 IP of scoreless relief. Kyle McMyne got his 1st save with 1 IP of scoreless relief.

FINAL Cincinnati 0 New York (AL) 4 W: A. Pettitte (1-1) L: B. Arroyo (2-2) BOX SCORE

POSITIVES –Bronson Arroyo was really good for 7.2 innings. Then he got tired, and:

A terrible showing tonight, Redlegs. Just awful. Milton is disappointed.

Squaring off on the mound tonight is the surprising rebound of Bronson Arroyo (2-1, 3.25 [...]]]> The Cincinnati Reds (19-18) kick off a weekend series against the New York Yankees (20-18) tonight at 7:05. This will be the first time the Reds have played in the House Next Door to the House That Ruth Built.

Squaring off on the mound tonight is the surprising rebound of Bronson Arroyo (2-1, 3.25 ERA, 3.34 FIP) versus the surprising return of long-time Yankee Andy Pettite (0-1, 5.68 ERA, 7.85 FIP).

The Reds lineup of mostly right-handed bats:
1. Zack Cozart (R) SS
2. Drew Stubbs (R) CF
3. Joey Votto (L) 1B
4. Brandon Phillips (R) 2B
5. Jay Bruce (L) RF
6. Chris Heisey (R) LF
7. Todd Frazier (R) 3B
8. Miguel Cairo (R) DH
9. Ryan Hanigan (R) C

Versus the Yankees lineup of mostly left-handed bats:
1. Derek Jeter (R) SS
2. Curtis Granderson (L) CF
3. Robinson Cano (L) 2B
4. Alex Rodriguez (R) 3B
5. Raul Ibanez (L) RF
6. Nick Swisher (S) 1B
7. Eric Chavez (L) DH
8. Dewayne Wise (L) LF
9. Chris Stewart (R) C

There’s not much more to say that Steve hasn’t already addressed in his excellent series preview. Play ball!

Photo: Steve Mancuso

Over the last decade, the New York Yankees spent $1.3 billion (billion!) more on player payroll than the Cincinnati Reds. That affords them five extra Joey Vottos (fully priced @ $25m/year) [...]]]> My high school debate coach used to say, “Whether you’re rich or poor, it’s good to have money.”

Photo: Steve Mancuso

Over the last decade, the New York Yankees spent $1.3 billion (billion!) more on player payroll than the Cincinnati Reds. That affords them five extra Joey Vottos (fully priced @ $25m/year) in pinstripes every year.

Defenders of MLB’s financial structure – a group comprised largely of Yankees fans, private equity buyout specialists (note the overlap) and Bud Selig – will make the misleading argument that this spending has bought brought only one World Series championship to the Bronx in the last ten years. They ask disingenuously, how unfair could the current system be?

Extremely unfair. The gross inequity is disguised by a post-season format that poorly rewards the best teams. Joe Posnanski has explained how short playoff series tend to randomize the World Series outcome, and how this structure hides the impact of payroll inequities. To win the World Series, it turns out the most important factor is reaching the playoffs.

So, back to that $1.3 billion question … how unfair?

The New York Yankees have made the playoffs 16 of the past 17 years, winning five World Series over that time. My debate coach was right. She usually was.

RANT OVER, NOW THE SERIES PREVIEW

This weekend, your Cincinnati Reds (19-18) take on the fourth-place New York Yankees (20-18) in Yankee Stadium, Friday (7:05), Saturday (1:05) and Sunday (1:05). The Reds play for the first time in the House Next Door to the House That Ruth Built.

The aging Yankees stagger home from a two-game bloodbath in Toronto. They were held to two runs and eight hits by Blue Jay future Hall of Famers Kyle Drabek and Drew Hutchinson, while being outscored 12-2.

As always, the Yankee line-up is loaded with All-stars. But human ACLs, MCLs, obliques, shoulders and elbows have taken a toll on their roster, particularly their bullpen.

My little town blues may be melting away.

Plus, with interleague play starting, Dusty Baker can add sluggers Ryan Ludwick (.183/.280/.329) or Mike Leake (.333/.333/.333) to the line-up. The Reds are 5-4 all-time against the Yankees in interleague play. And don’t forget a certain four-game sweep in the 1976 World Series.

PROBABLE STARTING PITCHERS

• Fri: Andy Pettitte LHP (0-1,  5.68 ERA, 7.85 FIP) vs. Bronson Arroyo (2-1, 3.25 ERA, 3.34 FIP)
• Sat: Ivan Nova RHP (4-1, 5.44 ERA, 4.93 FIP ) vs. Homer Bailey (1-3, 4.35 ERA, 4.70 FIP)
• Sun: CC Sabathia LHP (5-1, 3.77 ERA, 3.10 FIP) vs. Johnny Cueto (4-1, 1.89 ERA, 3.30 FIP)

Kinda hard to take your eyes off the Sunday matchup.

(Reminder: FIP stands for ‘fielding independent pitching’ and is a measure of what an ERA would look like assuming a normal outcome for balls put in play. It is regarded by many in the advanced-metrics world as a better predictor of future ERA.)

The Yankees pitching staff ranks second in K/9 (Reds are 10th) and 14th in BB/9 (Reds 8th). The Yankees’ ERA and FIP are in the bottom half of the league (Reds in the top ten). The Reds have an edge overall in pitching, although take into account the Yankee pitchers have competed against line-ups with designated hitters, not pitchers.

39-year-old Andy Pettitte faces the Reds tonight in his second start. He spent the 2011 season in retirement and preparing to testify in the perjury trial of his former teammate, which he did last week. In Pettitte’s first start, a loss to the Seattle Mariners, he gave up four ER in 6.1 innings. Ivan Nova (25) sprained his ankle in his last start against the Baltimore Orioles and there was a question whether he would pitch against the Reds, but as of now he’s listed as the probable starter. On Sunday, Carsten Charles Sabathia (31) will face the Reds. His five-start winning streak was snapped Tuesday night by the Orioles in a game where Sabathia gave up four ER.

STARTING POSITION PLAYERS AND LIKELY LINEUPS

The Yankees are eighth in MLB in runs scored (Reds are 20th) and fourth in on-base-percentage (Reds 27th!). The Bronx Bombers are second in home runs, trailing only Josh Hamilton.

Captain Derek Jeter, leads the team in AVG (.363) and OBP (.409). Curtis Granderson leads in home runs (13) and Nick Swisher leads in RBI (26). 37-year-old Alex Rodriguez is the only Yankee with more than 2 stolen bases (he has four), so they aren’t a big threat to run. Second baseman, Robinson Cano, who was named after Jackie Robinson, has heated up recently.

The Yankees infield is full of Gold Glove winners: Jeter (5), Teixera (4), ARod (2, at SS), Cano (1) and DH Eric Chavez won six times at third base, most recently in 2006. The Yankees best defensive OF, Brett Gardner, is on the disabled list.

THE YANKEES BULLPEN

One area where the Reds appear to have a decided advantage over the Yankees is the bullpen. Two weeks ago, not so much. Then, tragically, this happened to the greatest closer of all time. And then this.

Yankees closer, Mariano Rivera, was injured shagging fly balls before a game and is now out for the season. A week later, David Robertson, who is one of the best set-up relievers in MLB and slated to take Rivera’s place, landed on the DL with an oblique strain. Lucky for the Yankees, they pay $12 million/year to Rafael Soriano, formerly a successful closer for the Tampa Bay Rays who had been relegated to pitching the 7th inning for the Yankees. He’s their closer now. (Remember that thing about how it’s good to have money.) After Soriano, New York’s bullpen quality drops off. So getting to the bullpen early is extra important in this series.

Start spreadin’ the news.

NEW YANKEES

• Hiroki Kuroda - SP signed for one year, $10 million
• Raul Ibanez - LF Signed for one year, $1.1 million.
• Michael Pineda - SP acquired in trade from the Mariners for DH/C Jesus Montero and SP Hector Noesi.

YANKEES ON THE DISABLED LIST

• Mo Rivera - Best closer of all time, out for the year, torn ACL.
• David Robertson – Rivera’s replacer, stud set-up reliever, 15-day DL with oblique strain
• David Aardsma – Reliever, 60-day DL with Tommy John surgery
• Joba Chamberlain – Reliever, 60-day DL with MCL surgery
• Michael Pineda - Starting pitcher, out all year with labrum surgery
• Brett Gardner – Starting LF, 15-day DL with right elbow injury

Minor League Player of the Day: Cody Puckett and Josh Smith both had notable days, but the player of the day goes to Dayton Dragons starter Jacob Johnson, who returned to action after a long absence for shoulder surgery. Johnson allowed just 1 run on 3 hits in 5 innings.

The Reds paid $225 million to keep Joey Votto, and $72.5 million to keep Brandon Phillips.

They’re willing to spend money. Even so . . .

What exactly is this team doing with a $30 million setup man?

It’s not that [...]]]> Over at CBS Sports, Danny Knobler has an interesting piece on Aroldis Chapman:

The Reds paid $225 million to keep Joey Votto, and $72.5 million to keep Brandon Phillips.

They’re willing to spend money. Even so . . .

What exactly is this team doing with a $30 million setup man?

It’s not that Aroldis Chapman isn’t worth the money. By this year’s evidence — no runs allowed in 19 1/3 innings, with 34 strikeouts and a .296 opponents OPS — he may worth every penny.

He may well be the best pitcher the Reds have.

Or the best pitcher anyone has.

So . . . what’s he doing pitching the eighth inning?

The Reds, from general manager Walt Jocketty on down, believe that the 24-year-old Chapman’s future is as a starter — a dominant starter. They all say that he will be a starter, and everyone around the Reds says that Chapman wants to be a starter.

There’s a lot more; go read the entire piece. It’s a decent examination of how we got where we are: with one of the greatest pitchers in the world in the bullpen, while nearly everyone contends that he’s heading to the rotation at some point.

On a related note, I really think we need to do an in-depth study on Aroldis Chapman’s drop in effectiveness when he pitches more than one day in a row. If you saw him today, you know he was human (as opposed to super-human, as usual). He wasn’t awful; there weren’t any balls hit particularly hard, and he was victimized by the Drew Stubbs error. But he wasn’t sharp, and he wasn’t the same pitcher we have grown accustomed to seeing.

If Chapman really can’t pitch more than one day in a row (and I don’t know, based on all available evidence, whether he can or he can’t), the Reds will need to get serious about getting him in the rotation. Soon. Given the hole that would create in the bullpen, however, I’m not sure the Reds will be able to make that move in the near future.

(We desperately need Bill Bray and Nick Masset to get healthy.)