Redleg Nation

Game Thread: Pirates at Reds (2013.06.19)

Chris Wilson — Wed, 19 Jun 2013 22:00:13 +0000

Since I clearly jinxed the Reds yesterday by mentioning Latos’ undefeated streak, I will keep today’s game thread short and sweet by using two little words….

GO REDS!

Down On The Farm – A Ball All Star Edition

Tom Diesman — Wed, 19 Jun 2013 05:47:25 +0000

Games Played on 06/18/13

Minor League Player of the Day: Louisville 3B Neftali Soto: He went 3 for 4 with a HR.

AAA

Louisville 5 – Durham 2

Neftali Soto went 3 for 4 with a HR. Emmanuel Burriss went 3 for 5. Nevin Ashley went 2 for 3 with a 2B and a BB. Denis Phipps went 2 for 4 with a 2B.

Yohan Pino got the win as he went 6.2 IP and allowed 2 R on 7 H and 2 BB with 4 K. Zach Duke notched his 2nd save with 2.1 IP of scoreless relief.

Pensacola – No game scheduled.

High A

Bakersfield – No game scheduled.

Carolina League All Stars 12 – California League All Stars 2

No Blaze players saw action in the All Star game. Pitchers Carlos Contreras and El’Hajj Muhammed were the only players on the All Star roster.

Low A

Dayton – No game scheduled.

Midwest League East All Stars 6 – Midwest League West All Stars 5

The following Dragon’s saw action in the All Star game.

SS Zach Vincej went 1 for 2 with an RBI. LF Jesse Winker went 0 for 4.

Sal Ramono (1 IP), Ben Klimesh (0.1 IP), Alejandro Chacin (0.1 IP), and Sean Lucas (0.1 IP) each added scoreless relief outings.

Down On The Farm – Also Tardy Edition

Tom Diesman — Wed, 19 Jun 2013 03:54:58 +0000

Games Played on 06/17/13

Minor League Player of the Day: Louisville 3B Henry Rodriguez: He went went 2 for 4 with a 2B.

AAA

Durham 16 – Louisville 3

Henry Rodriguez went 2 for 4 with a 2B. Kris Negron went 2 for 3. Chris Heisey went 2 for 4. Corky Miller walked twice.

Pedro Villarreal got the loss as he went 1.2 IP and allowed 8 R on 8 H and 1 BB with 1 K. Jose Arredondo added 2 IP of scoreless relief.

Mobile 11 – Pensacola 1

Travis Mattair’s solo HR in the 2nd inning was the Blue Wahoo’s lone hit in the game.

Josh Smith got the loss as he went 6 IP and allowed 4 R on 7 H and 3 BB with 5 K. Loek Van Mil added 1.2 IP of scoreless relief.

High A

Bakersfield – No game scheduled.

Low A

Dayton – No game scheduled.

Titanic Struggle Recap:

Chad Dotson — Wed, 19 Jun 2013 02:32:21 +0000

Let’s recap tonight’s titanic struggle….

FINAL
Pittsburgh 4
Cincinnati 0
W: C. Morton (1-1)
L: M. Latos (6-1)
BOX SCORE

POSITIVES
–The Reds had four hits; Joey Votto had two of them, including a double (Cincinnati’s only extra-base hit).

–Manny Parra struck out two of the three batters he faced in a perfect inning. JJ Hoover did him one better, striking out the side in the ninth.

–After the first inning, Mat Latos was pretty good…

NEGATIVES
–…unfortunately, Latos’ first inning was bad. Mat gave up three runs in the first, which were the only three he permitted all day. Latos went five innings, giving up three hits and three walks, while striking out nine.

–The Reds had only four hits.

–Curtis Partch gave up a run on a hit and three walks in two innings.

NOT-SO-RANDOM THOUGHTS
–What can I say? Not much of a game.

–That was the first loss for Mat Latos since last August. Latos had won 21 consecutive starts before this one.

–Pirates starter Charlie Morton hit Shin-Soo Choo with a pitch in the first, satisfying the Pittsburgh fan base/dugout’s blood lust. Can we get back to baseball now?

Source: FanGraphs

Game Thread: Pirates at Reds (2013.06.18)

Chris Wilson — Tue, 18 Jun 2013 22:00:42 +0000

BOMBS AWAY!!!!

The Reds hit some absolute bombs last night, especially those off the bat of Cozart, Frazier, and Bruce. It was nice to see some big blasts and some outstanding pitching turned in last night by Leake, LeCure, Cingrani, and Chapman. I think the Reds are setting up for a big series here with the Pirates.

Why do I say that? Because tonight the Reds send Mat Latos to the mound to face Charlie Morton. Mat Latos may never lose another start in his career while Mr. Morton is making only his 2nd start of the season. The odds are in the Reds favor tonight. It is time for the Reds to go, and GO they will! Discuss the game here!

A darker strain of Chapmania

Steve Mancuso — Tue, 18 Jun 2013 17:45:15 +0000

A toxic narrative has developed that the Reds assigned Aroldis Chapman to the bullpen because of the pitcher’s mental weakness, a condition that disqualified him from being in the starting rotation. It’s a scurrilous notion that needs to be examined and, in my opinion, flatly rejected.

The root of the theory comes from a single statement the pitcher made through a translator that he enjoyed the excitement of closing. From there, some analysts (and then fans) immediately inferred that Chapman was communicating a reluctance to be a starter. It then followed that if the Reds assigned Chapman to the starting rotation he’d be uncomfortable with it. Chapman’s statement became viewed as a call for help, and people have come to darkly question whether Chapman has the “mental makeup” to be a starter.

New conventional wisdom: “The Reds know a deep secret about Chapman’s mental state that dictates he remain in the bullpen.”

But Aroldis Chapman didn’t say that he didn’t like being in the rotation. In fact, a couple months earlier, he said the opposite. Here, straight from the Missile’s mouth:

“I enjoyed being a closer, and I’m going to miss it, but I still like to be a starter,” Chapman said at the Reds’ fan fest. “I would love to do both, but my career is so short, and I always enjoyed being a starter. That’s what I want to do.”

Chapman subsequently expressed a preference for coming out of the bullpen. Fair enough. But if the “Chapman is mentally unfit to start” theory is premised on the idea that he didn’t like starting, then it’s pretty easy to demonstrate as false.

Second, are we to believe a pitcher has the mental makeup to be a closer, but not a starter? Please explain that. If anything, the closer potentially confronts more compressed, pressure-packed situations. Starters develop more routinized schedules and know well in advance whom they will face and the circumstances.

It’s certainly possible for a pitcher to have physical limitations (only one pitch, etc.) that warrant them being in the bullpen instead of the rotation. But it’s really hard to imagine a credible theory for a mental barrier.

Third, the theory of his unfitness for the rotation is belied by the plain fact that Chapman has been the best starter on the club in at least the past two spring trainings. Moreover, he was a successful starting pitcher in Cuba, for an authoritarian government that puts an intense spotlight on its baseball team. The idea that Chapman somehow doesn’t have the mental makeup for being a starter doesn’t really pass the smell test, based on his own history.

Finally, Chapman is just 25 years old. If a club isn’t sure whether a young pitcher has the sufficient maturity to be a starting pitcher all that means is that the pitcher is normal. So you send him out there and give him a reasonable trial period and find out. Then you give him another chance. And another. Especially when an athlete has the obvious potential that Aroldis Chapman has.

You know what you don’t do? You don’t give up on him being a starter at age 24 or 25 based on maturity or mental makeup. See: Homer Bailey and Mat Latos and Johnny Cueto and virtually every other successful starting pitcher who began with less maturity than they eventually developed.

Bottom line: The Reds organization simply calculated that Aroldis Chapman had more present value as a closer than as a starter. You can legitimately agree or disagree with that. But to take it a step further and say that the pitcher has an irremediable mental weakness is, like most speculation about the psychological makeup of athletes, complete nonsense.

And a quite unappealing brand of Chapmania.

Down on the Farm – Tardy Edition – But good day for Reds pitching

Bill Lack — Tue, 18 Jun 2013 17:17:26 +0000

For games played on June 16, 2013 (My apologies for not getting this up yesterday.)

Minor League Player of the Day: 22 year old Dominican 2B, Juan Silverio, had a big day for the Blaze in their 12-3 win. He went 3-5, hitting 2 homers (his 6th and 7th) and drove in half of the Blaze’s runs. He hit a 2 run homer in the 1st and a grand slam in the 7th. Silverio was originally signed by the White Sox organization and is in his first year with the Reds. This is his 3rd year at High A. His slash line for ’13 is .280/.298/.433/.731. He’s walked 5 times and struck out 59 times. In 6 minor league seasons, his career OBP is .307.

Very strong pitching day for the Reds organization, as 3 of the 4 teams threw shutouts, and the Blaze held their opponent to 3 runs.

AAA

Louisville 1 – Norfolk 0

Second straight day the Bats got outstanding pitching. Chad Reineke pitched 6 shutout innings, allowing only 3 hits (but 3 walks) and struck out 4. Scoreless innings by Jose Arredondo and newly signed, Zach Duke. Nick Christiani picked up his first save, with 2/3 of an inning.

Billy Hamilton went 2-4 with a homer (4) and a SB (43). Nevin Ashley went 2-4 with a double.

Pensacola 4 – Mobile 0

Shaun Ellis went 6.1 shutout innings, allowing only 4 hits, walking 1 and striking out 2. Drew Hayes threw 1.2 shutout innings and Trevor Bell pitched a scoreless 9th.

The Wahoos only had 5 hits, no one had more than one and there were no extra base hits.

High A

Bakersfield 12 – Modesto 3

Carlos Contreras started for the Blaze, going 3 innings, allowing 1 run on 3 hits, 2 walks, and 3 Ks. Carlos Gonzalez picked up the win (2-0), going 3 innings, allowing a run on a homer. Brooks Pinkard and Kyle Lotzkar threw scoreless innings.

Juan Silverio went 3-5 with 2 homers (6,7) and drove in 6 of the Blaze’s 12 runs. Yorman Rodriguez went 2-4 with a double, triple, and a walk and Juan Perez went 2-4 with a walk.

Low A

Dayton 2 – South Bend 0

Ismael Guillon threw 6 innings of 3 hit, shutout baseball. He walked 2 and struck out 7. Tony Amezcua and Sean Lucas (S, 10) threw scoreless innings.

Junior Arias went 2-3 with a triple and a walk, Zach Vincej went 2-3 with a walk, and Daniel Pigott and Sammy Diaz both went 2-5.

Titanic Struggle Recap: A homer for you and a homer for you and a homer for you and…

Chad Dotson — Tue, 18 Jun 2013 03:47:29 +0000

Let’s recap tonight’s titanic struggle….

FINAL
Pittsburgh 1
Cincinnati 4
W: M. Leake (7-3)
L: F. Liriano (5-3)
S: A. Chapman (18)
BOX SCORE

POSITIVES
–It was a night filled with solo homers. All four Cincinnati runs scored via the solo shot, including upper deck blasts by Zack Cozart and Todd Frazier. Frazier’s homer gave the Reds a lead they would not relinquish.

In the eighth inning, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce got in on the action with homers of their own.

–Mike Leake pitched an outstanding game, allowing only one run on six hits over seven innings. Leake is now 7-3 with a 2.64 ERA.

–Tony Cingrani struck out two hitters in the eighth, in a very tense and important situation (in his first relief appearance of the season). Probably the most exciting point in the game. Sure, Aroldis Chapman got the save (and Aroldis pitched well), but Tony Cingrani collected the most important outs in the game.

NEGATIVES
–None.

NOT-SO-RANDOM THOUGHTS
–The mighty Redlegs are now fifteen games over .500, at 43-28. That’s good.

–The win means the Reds move a game and a half ahead of the Pirates in the tight NL Central race.

–Leake is 7-3 with a 2.64 ERA. Raise your hand if you predicted that before the season. I couldn’t be happier for Leake, who (like Homer Bailey) has often been maligned among Reds fans.

–Aroldis Chapman came up and in to Neil Walker in the ninth inning, nearly hitting the Pittsburgh second baseman. I’m sure the Pirates will get their underpants all twisted up over the errant pitch, whether it was intentional or not. The Pirates seem to be really insecure when it comes to nonsense like this, always wanting to prove a point, to show that they belong. It’s a desperation that is palpable.

The truth, most likely, is that they secretly know what the rest of us know: they are pretenders and they’ll be also-rans in this pennant race soon enough. (Although I certainly concede that this is an organization that is set up nicely for the next few years. Not yet, though.)

Joey Votto just got a thumbs up from Pete Rose after that homer. Guess the Reds are going to cover the spread.

— Chad Dotson (@dotsonc) June 18, 2013

Cingrani seems like a guy who drives hitters nuts. All FB, not overpowering MPH, no pinpoint control. All floppy movement & effectively wild

— Chris Garber (@cgarber8) June 18, 2013

Time for Aroldis Chapman to protect a 3 run lead against the Pirates' 7-8-9 hitters.#closermyth

— Chris Garber (@cgarber8) June 18, 2013

Source: FanGraphs

Game Thread: Pirates at Reds (2013.06.17)

Chris Wilson — Mon, 17 Jun 2013 22:00:17 +0000

Well hello there Pittsburgh. You’re so cute! You hang around in the standings, giving your fans hope. But we all know who you really are. Time to trend that record back to under .500 like we know you will by October. What better time to start that downward trend than tonight in Cincinnati!

The Reds now begin a stretch of 16 consecutive games against winning teams. Eight of those are at home and eight are on the road. This will be a true test of where this team stands as we head into July and the All-Star Break. Mike Leake gets the stretch started tonight by taking the mound for the Reds.

Go Reds!

The Fierce Urgency of Now

Richard Fitch — Mon, 17 Jun 2013 17:30:34 +0000

He sets his jaw and fixes his gaze plateward. If there is fear, you will not detect it. If there is doubt, only he will know it. His apprenticeship is still a work in progress. Without a doubt, the arm needs more versatility, more seasoning. Man cannot live by fastball alone. The mental part though, seems more than ready.

Anthony Michael Cingrani is a young man in a hurry. Hopping, skipping and jumping from Billings to Bakerfield to Pensacola before pausing in Louisville to catch his breath, he has fast-tracked his way to the majors with all the certainty of the morning sun rising to take its place in the noonday sky. Bad luck for Johnny Cueto and the Reds has meant opportunity for the youngster from the outskirts of Chicago. Precious work in the big leagues has helped identify the blank spaces on his pitching portfolio. A spot in the rotation is awaiting him once Bronson Arroyo takes his leave for more moneyed pastures and one last big league payday. At least, that’s the plan that’s been penciled in for 2014.

All that is on hold now. In a perfect baseball world, Cingrani would head back down to Louisville, continue to work on his secondary pitches and serve as insurance should Cueto’s body continue to betray him. Instead, the Reds must deal with a pitching staff that has fallen from grace, from a time when all five starters blew through a season without missing a start and one of the best bullpens in Baseball dominated from the 7th inning onward. This year, the baseball gods are exacting their pound of flesh. The Opening Day starter made only his 7th start of the season yesterday, Nick Masset has been a no show, Sean Marshall continues to be MIA, with Jonathan Broxton the latest casualty—and Aroldis Chapman is locked away in in Dusty Baker’s panic room with a sign that reads, “IN CASE OF 3 RUN LEAD IN NINTH, BREAK GLASS.”

There’s no question Tony Cingrani remains in Cincinnati for now. The question is, should he stay when Marshall returns? Reluctantly, that answer is yes. Unequivocally, yes. Can anyone objectively look and the road ahead and under even the best of circumstances NOT see the Cardinals’ lead doubling to 5 games by the time the Reds finish with the Pirates on July 21st?

REDLEGS	o/u .500	REDBIRDS	o/u .500
Pirates (4)	+13	Cubs (4)	-11
DBacks (3)	+6	Rangers (3)	+7
A’s (2)	+12	Astros (2)	-18
Rangers (3)	+7	A’s (3)	+12
Giants (4)	+3	Angels (3)	-8
Mariners (3)	-7	Marlins (3)	-26
Brewers (3)	-12	Astros (2)	-18
Braves (4)	+12	Cubs (4)	-11
– All Star Break –
Pirates (3)	+13	Padres (3)	—

I believe the Cardinals will come back to earth. It’s really hard to see it happening in the next four weeks. And if they don’t, it’s easy to see them sprint out to a lead that will paint the Reds into a corner faster than you can say “Sherwin-Williams.” Baker has managed his team—and especially his bullpen—to get him to September. I don’t believe that strategy works any longer. Not with the schedule in front of both teams. And forget the Pirates at your peril. They have remained on the Reds’ heels all season. The assumption that they will fade based on past seasons is just that—an assumption. Teams have been known to defy run differentials (see, e.g., 2012 Baltimore Orioles).

The Redlegs need to find the bullpen mojo they had last year. Now. Cingrani’s presence in the bullpen for the rest of the season gives the best chance of accomplishing that feat. When Marshall does return, he will almost certainly be used gingerly and will take on even more the look of a LOOGY than he already has under Dusty’s grand plan. Tony C. gives the bullpen the legitimate lefty option that is currently missing in Manny Parra. He has the versatility to be used in long relief, as well as any high leverage situation that occurs, no matter who stands at the plate. He can also act as stress relief for LeCure and Hoover, who must now feel as if they need to be nails each and every trip out to the mound. He makes a healthy and effective Jonathan Broxton less urgent. In short, he has the potential to make everyone in the bullpen better in much the same way that Votto makes the hitters around him better. And his weaknesses—his pitch inefficiency and secondary pitches—are minimized.

The other option, a trade, is fraught with complications. The extra wild card will keep more teams thinking they are still in the race, meaning fewer suitors with which to bargain. The price will be high. Who really wants to give up prospects for bullpen help of all things? Bullpen help that cannot possibly have the impact of young Cingrani?

Does it complicate Cingrani’s future? Yes. But, if you believe in this season, it must be done. Creatively manage his innings in the pen so that he finishes with an acceptable innings total heading into next year, if you have to. But make this happen.

Is it a gamble? Yeah. Could Cueto go down again? Absolutely. But, Cueto is healthy today and Sean Marshall and Jonathan Broxton are not. If either remain in DL limbo or come back and prove ineffective, the Reds will continue to falter late in games and waste precious time on the calendar. It’s a roll of the dice the Reds must take. The Angels lost their chance at making the playoffs last year all the way back in April, when a slow start and the decision to leave a guy named Mike Trout in the minors doomed their season. This should be an object lesson to the Reds now as the season nears its midway point. Simply put, the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few.

Don’t look back. Don’t look to simply hang close ’till September. Time to play with the fierce urgency of now.

Pirates of the Allegheny: The Battle for Second Place

Steve Mancuso — Mon, 17 Jun 2013 13:00:17 +0000

The decidedly undead Pittsburgh Pirates’ ship sails into Great American Ball Park this week for a four-game series, starting tonight. The Pirates have been raising the Jolly Roger plenty this season and are fresh off series wins over the Dodgers and Giants. At the end of May, they took three of four from the World Series-favorite, Detroit Tigers.

This is the third series between Pittsburgh and Cincinnati in 2013, but the first played on the banks of the Ohio River. The Pirates swept the Reds back in April and only Sunday Bullpen Meltdown II prevented the Reds from returning the favor in early June.

The Reds are off to their fastest start since 1995 and have the second best record (42-28) in baseball. Yet, they enjoy only a half-game edge over the Pirates (41-28).

Tonight’s titanic struggle marks the start of a perilous stretch of The Big 162 for the Reds. That makes the next four games Use-Chapman-in-the-Eighth-Inning-to-Face-Garrett-Jones-with-Two-Outs-and-a-Runner-On important.

PIRATES’ HITTING: Dread Man’s Chest

The Pirates offense ranks in the bottom half of the NL. Even worse, in the past thirty days, they have been next-to-last in runs scored and on-base-percentage. The Reds pitchers shut them out twice in the June series.

Possible lineup (stats through Saturday):

Player	Bats	Pos	Age	AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	SB	oWAR	dWAR
Starling Marte	(R)	LF	24	.289	.357	.426	6	20	1.4	0.8
Travis Snider	(L)	RF	25	.238	.303	.365	3	1	-0.1	0.2
Andrew McCutchen	(R)	CF	26	.298	.367	.464	7	15	2.6	0.9
Garrett Jones	(L)	1B	31	.260	.310	.427	6	1	0.6	-0.7
Russell Martin	(R)	C	30	.247	.340	.419	7	3	1.6	1.2
Pedro Alvarez	(L)	3B	26	.212	.283	.443	14	1	0.6	0.1
Neil Walker	(S)	2B	27	.259	.353	.397	5	1	1.2	0.1
Clint Barmes	(R)	SS	34	.198	.231	.265	2	0	-0.6	0.6

Andrew McCutchen is one of those players you love to watch play even though he’s wearing the opposing team’s uniform – and not just because of the dreadlocks. McCutchen combines speed (20+ SB) and power (31 HR in 2012) on offense with Gold Glove (2012) defense. While he hasn’t repeated his MVP-level performance of 2012, “Cutch” has overcome his slow start and hit .348/.434/.478 in June. He also has his own TV show.

Starling Marte has emerged as an extremely impressive young player. He and Shin-Soo Choo may be the two best leadoff hitters in the National League. Marte has been sidelined for the past four games with a strained rib cage. He did play in yesterday’s game against the Dodgers as a defensive replacement in left field in the sixth inning, ending speculation that he might be headed for the DL with an oblique injury. It’s unclear if and when he’ll start against the Reds.

PIRATES’ PITCHING: The Curse of the DL

AJ Burnett, ace of the Pirates pitching staff, recently landed on the disabled list with a right calf injury. Jay Bruce’s personal Blackbeard, Wandy Rodriguez, is also on the shelf suffering from the ever-ominous “tight forearm.” James MacDonald has been struggling with a shoulder injury for months. Pitchers Jeff Karstens, Jared Hughes and Jeanmar Gomez are also out. The Pirates have weathered the downpour of pitching injuries so far. But as trips to the disabled list mount, DL could come to mean Davy Jones’ Locker for their post-season chances.

The Reds will also miss Pirate phenom Garrett Cole, who got a win against the Dodgers yesterday. Cole drew 30,000 fans to his first start at PNC Park last week. But even without Barnett, Rodriguez and Cole, the Pirate starters in this series not named Cumpton present a considerable challenge for the Reds.

Start Time	Pitcher	ERA	FIP	FBV	BABIP	K/9	BB/9	WAR
Mon 7:10 pm	Francisco Liriano (L)	2.36	1.94	92.8	.319	10.5	3.6	1.4
Mon 7:10 pm	Mike Leake	2.76	3.54	90.2	.305	6.5	2.0	1.3

Tue 7:10 pm	Charlie Morton	3.60	3.46	93.9	.438	9.0	1.8	0.1
Tue 7:10 pm	Mat Latos	3.08	3.35	91.8	.293	7.7	2.3	1.7

Wed 7:10 pm	Jeff Locke (L)	2.19	3.81	90.0	.233	6.6	3.9	0.8
Wed 7:10 pm	Bronson Arroyo	3.27	4.14	86.9	.269	5.1	1.4	0.8

Thu 12:35 pm	Brandon Cumpton	5.40	1.66	91.4	.412	9.0	1.8	0.2
Thu 12:35 pm	Homer Bailey	3.80	2.68	93.3	.302	8.7	2.3	2.4

In 2006, the Cy Young award winner in the American League was Johan Santana of the Minnesota Twins. That season, the Twins moved a rookie pitcher into the starting rotation in mid-May. Over 15 starts, he compiled a record of 11-3 and a major league leading ERA of 2.16. The rookie had a higher strikeout rate, a lower home run rate, a lower ERA and a lower FIP than Santana did in his Cy Young year. That 23-year old was Francisco Liriano.

Liriano had Tommy John surgery on November 6, 2006 and missed the entire 2007 season. He’s struggled since then, with all-too-fleeting periods of success. Over 60 starts in 2011 and 2012, his ERA was a garish 5.20. Liriano has never really been the same pitcher he was that summer of 2006. Until maybe now. He began the 2013 season on the DL but since his first appearance on May 11, Liriano has had five excellent starts out of seven, including one against the Reds on June 1, when he gave up four hits, one run and struck out eleven in just six innings.

Has Liriano really entered a time warp back to 2006, or is he simply teasing Pirates fans as he has those of the Twins and White Sox in recent years? The odds say the latter. However, if you see him take a jump to the left and then a step to the right …

Charlie Morton’s start last week against the Giants was his first of the season. He gave up two earned runs in five innings, while striking out five and walking one. Morton also hit three batters (look out Shin-Soo!). Two years ago, Charlie Morton was utter kryptonite to the Reds. But Votto and crew did beat him twice last season before he went on the DL to undergo Tommy John surgery.

Jeff Locke is a young (25) left-hander who is off to an excellent, if a bit lucky, start to 2013. His record (6-1) and ERA (2.19) are sparkling, but they are belied by underlying peripherals. His strikeout rate (6.6 K/9) is low and way too similar to his walk-rate (3.9 BB/9). He BABIP shows he’s also been lucky with balls in play.

It will be interesting to see how Dusty Baker lines up the hitters against the two lefties who take the mound for the Pirates this series, particularly given Shin-Soo Choo’s profound struggles vs. southpaws.

Brandon Cumpton (24) will start the second game of his major league career on Thursday. His first was Saturday against the Dodgers. Cumpton is far from one of the Pirates top prospects and his minor league numbers scream more Pedro Villarreal than Pedro Martinez. He’s walking the plank against the Reds because of the aforementioned injury parade.

And, oh yeah, the last time Homer Bailey took the ball against the Pirates it worked out OK.

PIRATES’ BULLPEN: At Game’s End

Overall, the Pirates bullpen is middle-of-the-pack (still ahead of the Reds) but their eighth- and ninth-inning specialists have been, well, quite special.

Jason Grilli (RH) has been the best closer in baseball this season. Not the best in the NL Central or the National League. The best in both major leagues. He’s converted all 25 of his save opportunities and surrendered a run in only three of his 33 appearances. His ERA is 0.88 and his FIP is half that.

Grilli’s strikeout-rate (14.9) barely trails Aroldis Chapman’s (15.6), yet his walk-rate (1.8) is well below that of his Cuban counterpart (3.6). Keep in mind that Grilli is a 36-year old journeyman (the Pirates are his sixth organization) who has never closed before this year. His success is further proof that clubs do not need “established” closers or to sacrifice infinite-ceiling starting pitchers simply so they can swaddle their narrow-minded managers in a ninth-inning security blanket.

Grilli faced the Reds once in the June series, striking out Zack Cozart, Joey Votto and Jay Bruce in order.

Eighth-inning pitcher Mark Melancon (28, RH) has been virtually as valuable as Grilli to the Pirates. His ERA is 1.05 and FIP is 1.71. Melancon’s strikeout rate is 10.0/9 innings and his walk-rate is even lower than Grilli’s. He’s allowed one home run this year, to Joey Votto back in April. Melancon has given up runs in only four 0f his 35 appearances. He came to Pittsburgh via the Yankees, Astros and Red Sox, all stops where he was at some point the “closer of the future.”

With Grilli and Melancon so dominant, the Pirates won’t match-up lefties with the Reds’ left-handed bats in the last two innings. Prior to the eighth, look for Justin Wilson (25, LH) in high leverage situations.

Strap in for the next four weeks

Steve Mancuso — Mon, 17 Jun 2013 00:30:07 +0000

The All-Star break is four weeks away.

The stretch between now and then could easily define the 2013 season for the Reds. As of today, the local team (42-28) stands 2.5 games behind the St. Louis Cardinals (44-25).

The challenges offered the next 28 days could not be more starkly different for the two NL Central rivals.

The Cardinals play 24 games, 12 at home and 12 on the road. They play only six against teams with winning records, three at home against the Texas Rangers and three on the road against the Oakland A’s.

Over the same four weeks, the Reds play 26 games, only 11 at home. Starting with the Pirates tomorrow, the Reds play 16 straight games against teams with winning records – four against Pittsburgh at GABP, then on the road for three vs. first-place Arizona, two against first-place Oakland, three against second-place Texas, and back home for four against the second-place San Francisco Giants (remember how it went the last time the Reds played the Giants in GABP?).

After those 16 games, the Reds face the Seattle Mariners for three games then three more against the Brewers. In the final series before the All-Star break, the Reds head south for a four-game series against first-place Hotlanta.

It should go without saying that anything could happen. The Reds could get white-hot and the Cardinals’ young pitching could begin to show its age.

That said, it’s not hard to imagine the Reds going 12-14 during the next four weeks, although they’d have to improve their record against winning teams to do it. If the Cardinals go 16-8, as we settle in to watch the All Star Game at the Mets’ Citi Field, the Reds would be 7.5 games out of first place.

Titanic Struggle Recap: Heeeeeeeere’s Johnny!

Chad Dotson — Sun, 16 Jun 2013 22:42:24 +0000

Let’s recap today’s titanic struggle….

FINAL
Milwaukee 1
Cincinnati 5
W: J. Cueto (4-0)
L: W. Peralta (4-8)
S: A. Simon (1)
BOX SCORE

POSITIVES
–Johnny Cueto was very effective in his return from the disabled list, going six innings and allowing just one run on five hits. He also drove in a run with a suicide squeeze that was brilliantly-executed. Good day for the Reds’ ace.

–Zack Cozart and Joey Votto were each 2-4; Cozart had a double and a run scored. Jay Bruce hit a solo homer, his twelfth of the season. Jack Hannahan was 1-3 with a double and walk.

–Donald Lutz had a big pinch-hit single that drove in two.

–Phil Mickelson holed one out for an eagle on #10.

–Alfredo Simon pitched three shutout innings for the save. Wait, a multi-inning save? Is that even legal?

NEGATIVES
–None.

NOT-SO-RANDOM THOUGHTS
–Reds win two out of three, and I’ll take that every single time.

–Juan Francisco made an error for the Brewers. I’ve never seen him do that before.

–Okay, Pittsburgh comes to town now. It would be nice for the Reds to show the Pirates what a real contender looks like.

Source: FanGraphs

Game Thread: Brewers at Reds (2013.06.16)

Chris Wilson — Sun, 16 Jun 2013 16:00:42 +0000

Johnny Cueto returns to the mound today to try and ensure the Reds take another series victory against the Brewers. Cueto’s health (everyone’s health) and winning series are the keys in my opinion to the Reds eventually catching and passing the Cardinals within the division.

Happy Father’s Day to all the dads out there. Hopefully you can sit back with your dad and son today and enjoy a Reds game and Reds victory. Even if the Reds don’t win, enjoy the day with your family. Go Dads and Go Reds!

Down on the Farm

Bill Lack — Sun, 16 Jun 2013 14:16:32 +0000

For games played on June 15, 2013

Minor League Player of the Day: 24 year old, Travis Mattair, went 3-4 with 2 doubles and drove in a run. Mattair was the 2nd round pick of the Phillies in 2007. He came to the Reds organization before the 2012 season and played last season in Bakersfield (.274/.344/465/.809), this year he’s in Pensacola (.217/.300/.335/.634).

AAA

Louisville 2 – Norfolk 1

Josh Fellhauer went 3-4 with an RBI and Felix Perez was 2-4.

Greg Reynolds ran his record to 8-0. He went 6 innings, allowing only 1 run on 8 hits, walking 3 and striking out 1. Logan Ondrusek threw 2 hitless innings, striking out 2. Jose Diaz picked up his 2nd save with a hitless 9th.

Mobile 6 Pensacola 2

Travis Mattair had 3 of the Blue Wahoos 6 hits (2 doubles).

Daniel Renken’s record dropped to 1-5, he went 3 innings allowed 4 runs on 2 hits and 6 walks. Wilken De La Rosa threw 2 scoreless innings, Josh Ravin threw a scoreless inning, and Loek Van Mil threw 1.1 scoreless innings.

High A

Modesto 6 – Bakersfield 4

Juan Silva was 2-4 with a double.

Mike Dennhardt took the loss, going 7 innings, allowing 6 runs (4 earned) on 7 hits, 0 walks, and 5 strikeouts. Kyle McMyne threw a scoreless inning.

Low A

South Bend 5 – Dayton 4

The Dragons had a 3-0 and 4-2 lead, but could hot neither.

Daniel Pigott was 2-4 and Seth Mejias-Brean was 1-4 with a homer.

Drew Cisco threw six innings, allowing 4 runs on 8 hits, 2 walks, and 4 strikeouts. Wandy Peralta threw a scoreless innings.