Maybe the offense will continue to slug away, and the Reds will continue their inexorable march toward first place in the National League Central division. Discuss it here….

The “Little Things”…

We keep hearing that the Reds “don’t do the little things well,” but did you know the average for National League teams last year was 47 sacrifice flies (or about two every seven games) and 65 sacrifice bunts (two every five games), and that the Reds were only one below the sac-fly average and plus-8 on the sac-bunt average?

There’s a reason they’re called “the little things.” They don’t affect the outcome of a team’s regular season as much as the big things (getting on base, which directly affects total runs scored).

Our managers managed by “the book”…which means bunting, seemingly, at every opportunity.

TALE OF TWO SEASONS

How about these numbers on Aaron Harang through his first eight starts:

2007 - 5-1, 5.04 ERA (55 runs of support from team)

2008 - 1-5, 3.09 ERA (22 runs of support from team)

Is there anybody out there who still wants to insist that the best gauge for evaluating starting pitchers is their won-loss records?

Yet, there are people that talk as if Harang isn’t pitching well. He’s steady and usually very good, bordering on spectacular and does not get nearly the credit he deserves from the baseball media. His W-L record (at least thus far this year) won’t help this situation either.

JAY, NOT LENNY

The biggest reason 21-year-old Jay Bruce is still in Louisville is that the Reds brass - including the development people - want him to get his on-base average closer to 65-70 points above his batting average to show he has the discipline to hit in the majors. Right now, Bruce’s on-base average (.343) is only 23 points higher than his batting average (.320). This isn’t to say Bruce has to get his OBA into that plus-65-70 range to get called up, but he has to be moving in the right direction.

He’s drawn only seven walks compared to 30 strikeouts. Roughly 5 percent of his plate appearances go for walks.

The NL average walk rate for a non-pitcher this season is 9.7 percent. If Bruce can’t match that rate in Triple-A, he’s going to have a hard time against quality major-league pitchers.

By the way, Brandon Phillips ‘ career OBA is only 44 points above his career BA. That’s tolerable if you’re blasting a lot of long balls, but if you’re not …

This doesn’t explain why Corey Patterson is still on the Reds roster. I can understand the thinking that if Jay’s not being selective enough at Louisville, it’s a stretch to believe that it’ll be better at the next level, but how much longer is Reds management willing to send Patterson out there to soak up outs?

THE BATTING ORDER

Pundits (including us, in this space last week) tend to over-analyze the rationale in explaining why a specific batting order should be utilized. All you need to know is this: Bat your high on-base guys 1 through 3. We strongly recommend Jeff Keppinger, Adam Dunn and Edwin Encarnacion, respectively.

Runs come from hitters getting on base and the hitters behind them (Joey Votto, Phillips, Ken Griffey Jr.) getting them home.

Batting Encarnacion anywhere but 1-4 is a waste of his .360 OBA, which is 102 points higher than his batting average (.258). We think his BA (and, thus, his OBA) will climb with the season.

This tidbit is in keeping with John’s seeming belief (shared by most “stats guys”) that OBA is the key to teams being productive offensively. (More on this later in the article.) I do like what he says about EE.

Along with that thought, I was very vocal about how I felt that Dusty was the wrong manager for this team. My belief mostly centered around his handling of young players but he’s been pretty darn outstanding in his dealings with EE, Votto, Cueto, and Volquez. He’s exhibited none of the tendencies that had me so concerned (other than his seeming “man crush” on Corey Patterson). I respect the job he’s done in dealing with the young players on the Reds roster.

GET ‘EM ON, GET ‘EM IN

Over their careers, almost everybody hits within 10 points of their batting average (either way) with runners in scoring position. With runners in scoring position, Tony Perez - regarded as one of the great clutch hitters in history - hit only five points higher than his overall batting average with RISP (.284, .279).

Did you know the 1976 Reds hold the major-league record for most runners left on base in a season - and yet they scored the second-most runs in franchise history?

Why? They also had a franchise-record .357 on-base average.

I’d love to see more data on this. I have problems with phrases like “almost everybody”. It’s very interesting to read this about Perez (who is often remembered as being an incredible “clutch” hitter). This is more proof of the belief in OBA being all important.

HIT DUNN NO. 2

It is simply untrue that Adam Dunn (below right) is not a good 2-hole hitter.

Though conventional wisdom says a 2-hole hitter must make contact and spray the ball around, the facts don’t support it. It’s more important to get on base because that’s what best leads to scoring runs. Hitting behind the runner might look good and fit “the book” approach, but sac-bunting and swinging away are a break-even proposition.

Look at it this way: Whether to sac-bunt or swing away is a matter of managing risk. If you sac-bunt, you’re less likely to get on base, but the outs you generate are not as bad because you advance the runner. If you swing away, you’re more likely to get on base and advance the runner additional bases, but you’re also more likely to generate a “bad” out that doesn’t advance the runner or, even worse, results in a double play.

On balance, sac-bunting and swinging away average out, just as Dunn’s approach to hitting averages out.

He makes considerably less contact than the average 2-hole hitter (he’s high-risk), but he’s high-reward because of all the bombs he hits - and he has an excellent on-base average, which means that even though he’s whiffing a lot, he more than offsets it with his high on-base average from walking a lot.

At No. 2, a .380 OBA guy who strikes out and is slow is better than a fast .315 OBA guy. Especially if Mr. .380 OBA hits 40 bombs.

Batting Dunn No. 2 gets him to the plate 50 more times in a season than batting him No. 5.

And why is such a big deal made about the 2-hole hitter advancing the runner, anyway? Last year, the Reds’ No. 2 hitter came to bat more than half the time (56 percent) with nobody on base.

Did you know that over the last two seasons Dunn has been right in line with the league average in terms of advancing runners from first base? (League average: 40 percent; Dunn, 39.7 percent)

The only Red with a comparable number of opportunities who advanced runners at a significantly higher rate was Encarnacion (45 percent), while Phillips - who might look more like a traditional 2-hole hitter to some - actually has advanced runners at a lower rate (38 percent) than Dunn.

And did you know that in only 35 more at-bats than Dunn with a runner on first, Phillips has hit into 24 more double plays?

Boy, there is a lot of good information in this section. Punches a big whole in several “theories” holes in Adam Dunn’s offensive game, explains why OBA is more important than being a contact hitter, and even shows a little why Brandon Phillips isn’t a big favorite of the “stats guys”.

Wanted to list the last line in the article also…

Joel Luckhaupt, Justin Inaz and Greg Gajus contributed.

AAA

Louisville 10 - Richmond 7

Jolbert Cabrera went 3 for 5 with 3B. Andy Green was 3 for 5 with two 2B. Jay Bruce an Paul Janish both went 2 for 4 with a HR. Andy Phillips was 2 for 5 with a 2B.

Homer Bailey got roughed up going 4.1 IP allowing 7 R, 6 ER, 11 H, and 2 BB while striking out just one batter. Danny Herrera, Gary Majewski, and Jon Adkins all pitched scoreless relief.

AA

Chattanooga 1 - Carolina 0

B. J. Szymanski, .281/.322/.500/.822 continues his push to arise from suspect to prospect at AA by going 2 for 4 with a 2B. Craig Tatum tripled to knock Szymanski in for the games lone run.

Sam Lecure gets the start and the win going 5 IP giving up 0 R on 6 H and 2 BB while recording 7 K. Derrik Lutz, Carlos Fisher, and Josh Roenicke were unscored on in their releif appearances.

High A

Sarasota 5 - Daytona 1

Juan Francisco went 4 for 4 with 2 2B. Todd Frazier went 3 for 4 with a HR and a 2B. Justin Turner went 2 for 4 with a 2B. Chris Heisey also 2B.

Jordan Smith gets the win going 8.2 IP giving up 1 R on 5 H and no walks while striking out 4 batters. Sean Watson recorded the final out of the game with a strikeout.

Low A

Dayton 7 - Great Lakes 6 (7 Innings, DH Game 1)

Redlegnation Spotlight Player Logan Parker hit a grand slam HR in the first inning. Keltavious Jones was 2 for 2 with 2 BB. Denis Phipps was 2 for 4.

Luis Montano gets the win going 5 IP giving up 5 R, 8 H, and 3 BB while striking out 2. Jeremy Horst gave up a run in 1.2 IP of relief giving up no hits and walking 3 batters. Joseph Krebs gets the save going .1 IP giving up a hit and retiring the final out of the game.

Great Lakes 5 - Dayton 2 (7 Innings, DH Game 2)

Brandon Menchaca and Denis Phipps were both 2 for 4 with a 2B. Brandon Waring was also 2 for 4.

Scott Carroll takes the loss after letting a 2 - 1 Dragons lead slip away in the final inning. He went 6.2 IP allowing 3 R on 6 H and a BB getting 4 K. Joeseph Krebs pitches in both games of the DH, allowing 2 R without recording an out in this game. Terrel Young strikes out the final batter in his .1 IP outing.

All “Reds trivia” posts come from Greg Rhodes and John Snyder’s fabulous book, “Redleg Journal” (see link for purchasing) and are used with Greg’s permission.

Thanks again to Greg Rhodes for permission to use his material.

Any way you look at it, the offense is picking up…and didn’t it happen right around the time Ryan Freel began leading off more often?

So, what do you think? Are the hitters waking up? And shouldn’t we be justifiably excited, since the pitching (other than Belisle) continues to be pretty solid?

Discuss the game here….

UPDATE: Use this thread for game two, as well….

AAA

Richmond 2 - Louisville 0

Paul Janish went 3 for 4 with a 3B and a 2B. Chris Dickerson was 2 for 4.

Jestin Lehr got a tough loss after starting and putting up 7 IP with 1 R, 4 H, 1 BB, and 4 K. Todd Coffey gave up a run in relief innings.

AA

Tennessee 3 - Chattanooga 2

Tonys Gutierrez and Cody Striait both had a 2B and a BB. Chris Valiaka doubled also.

Ben Jukich pitched 7.1 IP allowing 2 R on 5 H and 4 BB while striking out 5. Derrik Lutz gave up no runs in two thirds of an inning in relief. Robert Manuel tossed the final inning giving up an unearned run.

High A

Daytona 10 - Sarasota 3

Chris Heisey went 3 for 4 with a 2B. Michael DeJesus was 2 for 5 with a HR.

Travis Wood went 4 IP giving up 6 R, 3 ER on 8 H and a BB while recording 3 K. Camilio Vazquez, 2.2 IP, and Ruben Medina, 2 IP, both pitched scoreless relief.

Low A

Great Lakes at Dayton (Postponed due to rain.)

All “Reds trivia” posts come from Greg Rhodes and John Snyder’s fabulous book, “Redleg Journal” (see link for purchasing) and are used with Greg’s permission.

Thanks again to Greg Rhodes for permission to use his material.

Comment: Both Braggs and Bates would late earn a place in Reds team history for actions during the playoffs and World Series in 1990.

Is this year’s schedule the strangest one you’ve ever seen? Earlier, we had back-to-back two-game series’, and now we have a three-game homestand followed by an equally short road trip. Bizarre.

Either way, the Reds need a good outing from Matt Belisle to get this series started the right way. Discuss it here….

Today’s Baseball America Hot Sheet has Jay Bruce ranked #8.

One could be forgiven for wondering how it is that the best prospect in the land could hit .325 with power in Triple-A at age 21 and not sniff the Hot Sheet. Well, wonder no more. Bruce has produced steadily all season—without having that one knockout week—but the sum of his accomplishments can no longer be ignored….

Drew Stubbs shows up on the “Not so hot” part.

The middle of the order for Sarasota was pretty devastating when it contained Chris Valaika, Juan Francisco and Stubbs. But Valaika was called up and Stubbs plummeted this week…

Baseball America also has a feature on Johnny Cueto and Edinson Volquez. (subsription required). Justin Upton and Orlando Hudson had some nice things to say about Cueto.

“He was unbelievable two years ago and he’s even better now,” Upton said. “He’s got great stuff. He pounds the strike zone with it. He’s just a great pitcher.”

“He was Jake Peavy-like,” Diamondbacks second baseman Orlando Hudson said, referring to the Padres ace and defending National League Cy Young Award winner. “His stuff was that good.”

Volquez talked about his maturity on the mound.

“I’m older now,” Volquez said. “I don’t get upset about stuff. I just concentrate on pitching and getting people out. Coming to the Reds has been a good thing for me. It’s something new and I’m really enjoying myself here.”

Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus goes over his April awards for the top pitchers in each league in the minors (Subscription required). Homer Bailey (AAA Louisville), Darryl Thompson (AA Chatanooga) and Luis Montano (Low-A Dayton) all get consideration.

Bailey was given a bit of a mulligan for a disappointing 2007, and so far that seems like the right decision, as he’s been absolutely electric so far in 2008. The Reds might be awful this year, but pitching wins ballgames, and they’re lining up one of the best rotations around.

…Thompson is a guy who the Reds (and the Nationals, before he was traded to Cincy) have always had high hopes for based on his stuff alone. Still just 22, Thompson throws strikes with a plus fastball and solid secondary stuff, and everything has been clicking so far in 2008, as he has a 1.45 ERA in seven starts and 44 strikeouts against just seven walks in 43 1/3 innings.

(Nate) Starner is another off-the-radar guy, but he’ll likely stay that way. An undrafted lefty who turned 24 at the end of the month, he’s definitely the kind of polish over stuff pitcher who’s a longshot to get there. The same could be said for Montano, as the 23-year-old Dominican righty controls the strike zone well, but doesn’t blow hitters away.

Jayson Stark goes over the Josh Hamilton/Edinson Volquez trade in his Rumblings and Grumblings.

But Volquez, whom Texas initially force-fed into the big leagues at too young an age, has been writing a spectacular comeback saga himself. He leads the league in ERA (1.06) and lowest slugging percentage allowed (just .238). And he has become the first Reds pitcher since the 1912 invention of earned runs to start a season by allowing no more than one earned run in each of seven straight starts.

He also discusses a potential Griffey trade and a scout criticizes one of Dusty’s choices.

“You know what was [Dusty Baker’s] biggest mistake? His highest-energy guy is Ryan Freel. But what was the first thing Dusty did? Sit him on his butt to play Corey Patterson. And it didn’t sit well with that team.”

The Bats scored all 8 runs in the 5th and 6th innings to capture their 3rd straight win over the Tide.  The 6 run 5th inning was capped by Andy Phillips’s grand slam.  That is Phillips’s 3rd homerun in 3 straight games.  Ryan Hannigan went 3-4 in the game with 3 singles.  Luis Bolivar, Jay Bruce, and Chris Dickerson each added 2 hits apiece.  Dickerson had a double and drove in 2 rbis.  Bruce added an rbi and a double while Bolivar scored twice.

Adam Pettyjohn remained undefeated and improved to 3-0 with the win.  Adam allowed 5 runs on 7 hits and a walk while striking out 2 in 5 innings pitched.  Gary Majewski picked up his 2nd save of the season, but it was not a smooth inning of work.  Gary gave up a run on 2 hits and a walk while striking out 1.

Tennessee 6 - Chattanooga 4

The Lookouts had only 8 hits, and Tonys Gutierrez had 3 of them.  Tonys went 3-3 with 3 singles in the game to bump his average to .337 on the season.  Chris Valaika went 2-4 with 2 runs scored and a homerun in his first game at Double-A.  He hit .363/.393/.585 in 32 games at Sarasota before getting called up to Chattanooga.  Cody Strait hit a homerun of his own, his 5th of the season, in a 2-5 game.  He added a double.

Pedro Viola, Carlos Fisher, and Josh Roenicke combined to pitch 4 scoreless innings in relief for the Lookouts.  They combined to allow 4 hits and a walk while striking out 1.

Sarasota 3 - Daytona 2

Chris Heisey went 2-2 with a double, run scored, an rbi, and 2 walks in the game to help the Reds to a 3-2 win.  Todd Frazier and Jason Louwsma each had 1 rbi.

Daniel Guerrero improved to 2-2 on the season by going 7 scoreless innings, scattering 4 hits and striking out 6.  This was by far Guerrero’s best start of the ‘08 season.

Great Lakes 9 - Dayton 6

Matt Klinker go the start in this one and didn’t have his best game.  Matt allowed 4 runs on 7 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings pitched.  He struck out 3.  He received a no-decision. 

Keltavious Jones, Zach Cozart, Denis Phipps, Brandon Waring, and Logan Parker each had 2 hits in the game.  Parker had a homerun, 2 runs scored and 2 rbis while Jones hit a homerun as well.  The Reds #1 draft pick from last season, Devin Mesoraco, made his debut last night in Dayton.  Mesoraco went 1-4 with a walk, rbi, and 2 strikeouts.

Shaw, who had been selected as the Reds only representative to the All-Star game, appeared in teh game on July 7 at Coors Field in a Dodgers uniform. This was was the first time that a player had made his first appearance for a team at an All-Star game. The Reds wound up with a player in the game when Bret Boone was named to replace an injured Sammy Sosa.

All “Reds trivia” posts come from Greg Rhodes and John Snyder’s fabulous book, “Redleg Journal” (see link for purchasing) and are used with Greg’s permission.

Thanks again to Greg Rhodes for permission to use his material.

Andy Phillips had not had a homerun all season until 2 days ago.  Now he has 2 in 2 days.  In yesterday’s game, he went 2-4 with a homerun, run scored, and 4 rbis.  Kevin Barker hit his 5th homerun of the season, going 1-5 with a run scored and 3 rbis.  Jay Bruce went 4-5 for the Bats while Jolbert Cabrera and Paul Janish had 2 hits each.

Matt Maloney improved to 3-2 on the season by allowing 2 runs on 7 hits while striking out 2 over 7 innings pitched.  Bill Bray struggled in his first outing since being sent back down to AAA. Bray allowed 2 runs on 2 hits and 2 walks in .1 innings pitched.  Jon Adkins picked up his 5th save of the season by recording the final 2 outs of the game.  Adkins now has a 0.87 ERA in 20.2 innings pitched.

Tennessee 15 - Chattanooga 7

The Smokies scored 5 runs in the 7th and then 6 more in the 9th to blow the game open late.  Derrick Lutz pitched .1 innings, allowing 5 runs (3 earned) on 2 hits and 2 walks to get the loss.  Justin James did not help matter any.  James pitched 1 inning, giving up 6 runs (2 earned) on 3 hits and 4 walks. 

Michael Griffin, Tonys Gutierrez, and Craig Tatum each had 2 hits in the game for the Lookouts.  Tatum added a double and 2 rbis.  Jerry Gil hit his 2nd homerun of the season and drove in 3.

Sarasota 5 - Daytona 1

Michael DeJesus led the Reds in hits by going 3-4 with a double and an rbi.  Jason Louwsma went 2-4 with an rbi and Juan Francisco had 2 rbis and hit his 5th homerun of the season.

Rafael Gonzalez picked up his 2nd win of the season by going 5 scoreless innings, scattering 4 hits and 1 walk while striking out 4.

Dayton vs Quad City

This game was postponed

I just saw this on the news. Luckily, the good folks at Bugs & Cranks had already posted it to YouTube.