Series Preview

The Marlins Again

It’s the Cincinnati Reds Hall of Fame induction weekend. Ken Griffey Jr., Dave Parker, Ron Oester and the late Jake Beckley will be inducted as the newest members of Cincinnati Reds Hall of Fame. The Reds have activities planned for every day of the series. Find the full list here: Schedule of events for Reds HOF Induction Weekend.

The Cincinnati Reds (59-56) and the Miami Marlins (55-59) play three more games this weekend in Cincinnati after a four game series last weekend. These two teams were tied with 53-54 records before the first game of their last series, but their stories diverge from there. The Reds won 3 out of 4 in each of their series against Miami and Cleveland while the Marlins have only won two of their last seven games.

Jason covered the Marlins last week in his excellent series preview. However, Miami has since been hit with several injuries on their pitching staff. Henderson Alvarez was scratched from his scheduled start last Sunday with a shoulder injury and is still on the DL. Jacob Turner, who filled in for Alvarez last Sunday against the Reds, has been designated for assignment. Jarred Cosart was supposed to start last night against the Pirates, but was scratched from that start with an oblique strain. He’s expected to just miss one start and will not appear this weekend against the Reds. Reliever Dan Jennings was hospitalized after getting hit in the head with a line drive last night and will likely be placed on the DL.

WHERE TO WATCH
If you cannot attend any of the games in person, all three games will be on Fox Sports Ohio and Fox Sports Florida in their respective television markets.

PROBABLE STARTERS

FRIDAY, 7:10pm

PITCHER ERA xFIP WHIP HR/9 BB/9 K/9
Nathan Eovaldi 4.22 3.95 1.22 0.7 1.9 6.2
Mike Leake 3.46 3.41 1.24 0.9 1.9 7.0

Eovaldi started the only game that Miami won last weekend, limiting the Reds to one run over seven innings. Last Saturday’s start against Cincinnati was a bit of an outlier for Eovaldi, as it was the best start of his season and ranked as the 4th best GameScore of his career (69 starts.)

SATURDAY, 7:10pm

PITCHER ERA xFIP WHIP HR/9 BB/9 K/9
Brad Penny (career) 4.26 4.27 1.37 0.9 2.9 6.0
Alfredo Simon 3.07 4.07 1.12 1.1 2.3 5.5

This is Henderson Alvarez’s/Jacob Turner’s rotation slot. Alvarez is on the DL and Turner was designated for assignment. The Marlins haven’t named an official starter for Saturday’s game yet, but all signs point to Brad Penny getting activated to be the Marlins 13th different pitcher to make a start this season. Penny was signed to a minor league contract in June and has made seven starts between two minor league affiliates.

Penny didn’t play anywhere last season, and spent the first half of this season as a free agent after getting released by the Kansas City Royals during spring training. The numbers listed above for Penny are his major league career numbers over 1,899 innings.

SUNDAY, 1:10pm

PITCHER ERA xFIP WHIP HR/9 BB/9 K/9
Brad Hand 4.03 4.44 1.42 0.5 3.6 5.6
Johnny Cueto 2.04 3.06 0.91 0.7 2.4 9.0

Brad Hand is the one starter that the Reds missed last weekend. The 24-year-old lefthander will be making his 10th start and 24th appearance of the season. He’s thrown a quality start in each of his last four games and has a 2.28 ERA in those games.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
The Reds offense has finally been hitting lately against weaker opponent pitching, and we’re hoping that they continue that trend against the ailing Marlins pitching squad this weekend. You don’t want to give the Marlins any reason to think they are back in this wildcard race, and the Reds have their own short distance to cover in the NL Central division race.

14 thoughts on “The Marlins Again

  1. The Reds seem to have a fairly solid advantage in pitching matchups in all three games. Plus the Marlins are skidding. A much needed Cincy sweep doesn’t seem out of the question, though I’d be satisfied with another series win.

  2. Tonight’s lineup:

    CF Billy Hamilton (S)
    RF Jay Bruce (L)
    3B Todd Frazier (R)
    C Devin Mesoraco (R)
    1B Brayan Pena (S)
    LF Skip Schumaker (L)
    2B K. Negron (R)
    SS Zack Cozart (R)
    P Mike Leake (R

    In his last start against us on Saturday, Eovaldi allowed only two hits and Skip had one of them. He also went 1 for 3 against the Marlin starter in one other appearance while Ludwick doesn’t have an AB against him. Rest of the lineup is as expected.

    • Figured Skip for Luddy was something like that. Improves our defense ever so slightly in LF. I like the line-up overall, especially the way the middle infield has played.

      • Schumaker doesn’t improve the defense anywhere he plays……ever. As I posted the other day, Ludwick’s OPS vs. RHP is considerably higher than Schu’s, though neither is over .700.

        Or, just go get Rios. He cleared waivers and is owed <$4mil for the rest of the season. If we throw in a prospect (somewhere in the 10-20 range) I bet the Rangers would be willing to eat the majority of it.

        The lack of a deal truly makes me question Castellini's commitment, especially after what we saw coming out of the all-star break.

  3. I had seen yesterday that the Marlins were likely to start Brad Penny on Saturday.

    To which I responded, “Hey, isn’t he retired?” I guess not.

    • I’m actually going to the game on Saturday, so hopefully we can score a few and send Penny back to the retirement home

  4. You look at those pitching match-ups and think the Reds would have to try not to win at least two.

    Brad Penny will be a fish out of water and Brad Hand will feel like a fish on a hook with Johnny Beisbol as the expert wrangler.

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