Central Intelligence

Week 13: NL Central June Review

nl central

NL Central Power Rankings Week 13

*please note: all stats outside of team records only include games played through 6/28/14.

1. Milwaukee Brewers (last week 1):

51-33, 1st Place, 383 RS, 343 RA (+40)

The Brewers are still playing great baseball.  They have won 8 of 11 games, and have now extended their NL Central lead to 6.5 games.  That is the largest lead over a second place team in any division in baseball.  The Brewers have a 79% chance of reaching the postseason, and a 65.7% chance of winning the NL Central according to Fangraphs.

The Brewers pitching was a little shaky in June.  Their team 3.95 ERA was 19th in the MLB, and their 1.27 WHIP was 17th best in the MLB.  The Brewers offense was terrific however in June.  They scored 148 runs (1st in the MLB), posted a 114 wRC+ (tied for 2nd best in the MLB), and their position players 6.4 WAR was the best in the MLB in June.

The Brewers 36 year old third baseman Aramis Ramirez is having a great season.  He is hitting .292/.345/.495 with 11 HR, 40 RBI, 133 wRC+, and 1.8 WAR.  This coming from a guy who was only predicted to be worth 1.3 WAR according ZiPS.

Starting Pitchers in June

brew sp

Who’s Hot (month of June)

  • Jonathan Lucroy: .364/.434/.606, 6 HR, 20 RBI, 187 wRC+, 1.7 WAR
  • Scooter Gennett: .397/.447/.692, 4 HR, 13 RBI, 215 wRC+, 1.6 WAR
  • Aramis Ramirez: .352/.387/.648, 6 HR, 19 RBI, 189 wRC+, 1.4 WAR

Who’s Cold (month of June)

  • Jean Segura: .196/.239/.294, 20 for 102, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 14 K, 38 wRC+, -0.2 WAR

Injuries (click to expand)

brew hurt

Upcoming Schedule

  • Tues (1:07), Wed (12:37) at Toronto
  • Fri (7:10), Sat (4:10), Sun (1:10) at Cincinnati

2. Cincinnati Reds (last week: 3):

43-38, T-2nd Place, 6.5 GB, 323 RS, 301 RA (+22)

The Reds are absolutely rolling.  They have won 5 consecutive games, 8 of 9, and are 14-4 in their last 18 games.  The Reds now are tied with the Cardinals for second in the NL Central, and are in a 3-way tie for the 2nd wildcard spot with the Cardinals and Nationals.  The Reds now have a 49.9% chance of reaching the postseason according to Fangraphs.

The Reds pitching has been pretty good in June.  They have posted a 3.67 ERA (13th in the MLB) and 1.23 WHIP (12th in the MLB).  It has been the Reds offense that has been mainly responsible for their MLB best 18-9 record in June.  The Reds 131 runs scored are the 2nd most in the MLB in June (behind the Brewers).

The Billy Hamilton show continues to roll in Cincinnati.  Hamilton hit an impressive .333/.355/.510, with 3 HR, 17 RBI, 14 SB, 140 wRC+, and 1.6 WAR in June.  On the season, Hamilton is hitting .282/.313/.404 with 34 SB and 97 wRC+.  While I’m sure Reds fans would love to see Hamilton’s OBP move up a little higher in the leadoff spot, his 2.9 WAR has him tied for 19th best in all of baseball.  A good portion of his high WAR comes from his 9 Defensive Runs Saved (most among MLB CF, and 8th most among all position players).

Starting Pitchers in June

reds sp

Who’s Hot (month of June)

  • Billy Hamilton: .333/.355/.510, 3 HR, 17 RBI, 14 SB, 140 wRC+, 1.6 WAR
  • Todd Frazier: .308/.364/.561, 8 HR, 18 RBI, 7 SB, 157 wRC+, 1.4 WAR
  • Jay Bruce: .323/.369/.581, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 4 SB, 160 wRC+, 1.0 WAR
  • Devin Mesoraco: .247/.337/.534, 6 HR, 15 RBI, 140 wRC+, 0.7 WAR
  • Ryan Ludwick: .309/.356/.509, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 141 wRC+, 0.2 WAR

Who’s Cold (month of June)

  • Skip Schumaker: .216/.226/.275, 11 for 51, 11 K, 32 wRC+, -0.6 WAR
  • Brayan Pena: .116/.174/.140, 5 for 43, -16 wRC+, -0.5 WAR

Injuries (click to expand)

reds hurt

Upcoming Schedule

  • Mon (10:10), Tues (10:10), Wed (3:40) at San Diego
  • Fri (7:10), Sat (4:10), Sun (1:10) vs Milwaukee

3. St. Louis Cardinals (last week: 2):

44-39, T-2nd Place, 6.5 GB, 307 RS, 289 RA (+18)

The Cardinals have gone 13-7 in their last 20 games, yet have still fallen to 6.5 games back in the NL Central, and allowed the Reds to tie them for second place.  The Cardinals have had a recent injury bug, as pitchers Wacha, Kelly, Garcia, and Siegrist are all on the DL.

Despite all the injuries to the Cardinals pitchers, they still posted a 3.09 ERA (4th best in the MLB) and 1.21 WHIP (10th in the MLB) in June.  The Cardinals offense however has really struggled.  They have scored just 89 runs in June (3rd fewest in the MLB), and had an 89 wRC+ (20th in the MLB).

Starting Pitchers in June

cards sp

Who’s Hot (month of June)

  • Matt Adams: .328/.339/.707, 6 HR, 16 RBI, 187 wRC+, 0.9 WAR
  • Jhonny Peralta: .259/.340/.447, 2 HR, 12 RBI, 121 wRC+, 0.8 WAR
  • Matt Holliday: .253/.371/.414, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 128 wRC+, 0.5 WAR
  • Jon Jay: .319/.382/.377, 2 RBI, 121 wRC+, 0.4 WAR

Who’s Cold (month of June)

  • Kolten Wong: .103/.103/.231, 4 for 39, -18 wRC+, -0.4 WAR
  • Oscar Taveras: .176/.216/.206, 6 for 34, 17 wRC+, -0.3 WAR
  • Yadier Molina: .205/.276/.295, 16 for 78, 11 K, 61 wRC+, 0.1 WAR

Injuries (click to expand)

cards hurt

Upcoming Schedule

  • Tues (10:15), Wed (10:15), Thurs (3:45) at San Francisco
  • Fri (7:15), Sat (2:15), Sun (2:15) vs Miami

4. Pittsburgh Pirates (last week: 4):

42-40, 4th Place, 8.0 GB, 335 RS, 344 RA (-9)

The Pirates are just another hot team in the NL Central.  They have won 7 of their last 9 games, yet still sit 8.0 games back in the division.

The Pirates pitching was much improved in June, as they posted a team 3.44 ERA (11th in the MLB) and 1.18 WHIP (5th in the MLB).  The Pirates offense has also been good in June, as they have scored 123 runs (5th in the MLB), and posted a 114 wRC+ (2nd in the MLB).

Brandon Cumpton has really turned in an impressive month of June for the Pirates: 2.97 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 20 K, 8 BB, 0.7 WAR.  For a team that has struggled for the majority of 2014 with starting pitching, the Pirates desperately needed what Cumpton has given them in June.

The Pirates also traded away their struggling once closer Jason Grilli to the Angels for another struggling reliever Ernesto Frieri.

Starting Pitchers in June

bucs sp

Who’s Hot (month of June)

  • Andrew McCutchen: .343/.410/.686, 8 HR, 25 RBI, 5 SB, 204 wRC+, 1.6 WAR
  • Russell Martin: .271/.440/.357, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 3 SB, 142 wRC+, 1.0 WAR
  • Josh Harrison: .320/.362/.464, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 132 wRC+, 1.0 WAR
  • Starling Marte: .296/.367/.408, 1 HR, 10 RBI, 6 SB, 124 wRC+, 0.6 WAR
  • Pedro Alvarez: .289/.392/.434, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 134 wRC+, 0.5 WAR
  • Gregory Polanco: .299/.379/.390, 2 HR, 10 RBI, 4 SB, 124 wRC+, 0.5 WAR

Who’s Cold (month of June)

  • Ike Davis: .164/.321/.245, 11 for 67, 15 K, 75 wRC+, -0.5 WAR
  • Gabby Sanchez: .211/.250/.289, 8 for 38, 11 K, 51 wRC+, -0.2 WAR

Injuries (click to expand)

bucs hurt

Upcoming Schedule

  • Tues (7:05), Wed (7:05), Thurs (7:05) vs Arizona
  • Fri (5:05), Sat (4:05), Sun (1:35) vs Philadelphia

5. Chicago Cubs (last week: 5):

34-46, 5th Place, 15.0 GB, 303 RS, 317 RA (-14)

The Cubs have actually gone 14-12 in June, but with the success of everyone else in the division have fallen all the way to 15.0 games back (only the Astros at 16.0 GB are further back in any division).

The Cubbies month of June has been pretty typical of their season: good pitching and bad offense.  The Cubs team ERA of 3.38 in June is good for 8th best in the MLB, and their 1.24 WHIP is good for 14th.  The Cubs offense has scored 96 runs (22nd in the MLB), and posted a 76 wRC+ (26th in the MLB).

As ESPN’s Jesse Rodgers pointed out on Sunday, it’s all about the prospects for the Cubs in 2014.  The recent success of Jake Arrieta gives the Cubs a bunch of arms to trade at the deadline if they chose to do so.

Starting Pitchers in June

cubs sp

Who’s Hot (month of June)

  • Anthony Rizzo: .307/.386/.594, 7 HR, 16 RBI, 167 wRC+, 1.2 WAR
  • Starlin Castro: .295/.345/.514, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 133 wRC+, 0.8 WAR
  • Luis Valbuena: .284/.323/.466, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 116 wRC+, 0.5 WAR

Who’s Cold (month of June)

  • Mike Olt: .057/.132/.143, 2 for 35, 21 K, -30 wRC+, -0.5 WAR
  • Ryan Sweeney: .204/.220/.245, 10 for 49, 21 wRC+, -0.4 WAR
  • John Baker: .189/.259/.208, 10 for 53, 17 K, 24 wRC+, -0.4 WAR
  • Nate Schierholtz: .179/.217/.295, 14 for 78, 21 K, 34 wRC+, -0.3 WAR
  • Emilio Bonifacio: .189/.231/.270, 7 for 37, 26 wRC+, -0.1 WAR

Injuries (click to expand)

cubs hurt

Upcoming Schedule

  • Mon (7:10), Tues (7:10), Wed (7:10) at Boston
  • Fri (11:05a), Sat (4:05), Sun (1:35) at Washington

 

NL Central Players of the Week

  • Matt Adams, Cardinals: .360/.385/.760, 3 HR, 8 RBI, 224 wRC+, 0.5 WAR
  • Mike Leake, Reds: 8.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 12 K, 1 BB, 1.13 ERA, 0.62 WHIP, 0.2 WAR

NL Central Players of the Month (June)

  • Andrew McCutchen, Pirates: .343/.410/.686, 8 HR, 25 RBI, 5 SB, 204 wRC+, 1.6 WAR
  • Jake Arrieta, Cubs: 6 GS, 31.2 IP, 38 K, 5 BB, 1.14 ERA, 0.79 WHIP, 1.4 WAR

See previous players of the week here

16 thoughts on “Week 13: NL Central June Review

  1. Finally, the Reds are starting to look like a team that deserves to be #2 in the power rankings. Great to see.

    I’m a bit surprised to see Arrieta get the nod for pitcher of the month over Simon. Yes, his WHIP and WAR are better… but Simon pitched an entire extra game (9 inn) compared to Arrieta in the same number of starts. Both had great months. Any reason in particular you went with Arrieta?

    • Simon certainly would have been deserving, but his ERA (2.66) was much higher than Arrieta (1.14). Plus Arrieta had 38 K to 5 BB (Simon 26/6). I know that Cubs manager Rick Renteria hasn’t been pushing Arrieta, Samardzija, or Hammel late into games, as they are all on the trade market too.

  2. Hey, if you have to have ‘cold’ players, I guess non-starters are the best place to have them.

    • Dale, the national press is all over BHam too. The Kid just keeps getting better and better. Outside of possibly Trout is there a more exciting player to watch? Reminds me a lot of Eric Davis’ first complete season.

  3. Uh, not sure why this is a surprise about the Reds. They finally have everyone relatively healthy (knocking wood). When healthy, this is a good team.

  4. This is a test post for spacing.

    Someone who I haven’t seen on any prospect list (Prospect Digest Top 10, John Sickles Top 20)
    Steve Selsky; Birthdate: 7/20/1989 (24 y, 11 m, 11 d) Bats/Throws: R/R Height/Weight: 6-1/205 Position: OF
    Drafted: 2011 June Amateur Draft – Round: 33, Pick: 24, Overall: 1015, Team: Cincinnati Reds
    (http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa526361&position=OF)
    Why am I interested, his numbers show learning and progress at each level, or at least by my interpretation. If RLN has written about him, I missed it, but just in case you haven’t found him, I will elaborate.
    Steve has been in the system about 3 years since drafted
    Rookie Ball 89 PA, BABIP .339 , wRC+ 172
    2012 Split season
    Reds A 246 PA’s, BABIP .343 , wRC+ 102
    Reds A+ 307 PA’s, BABIP .402, wRC+ 164
    2013 Split season
    Reds A+ 394 PA’s,, BABIP .352, wRC+ 134
    Reds AA 99 PA’s, BABIP .234, wRC+ 45
    2014 Split season
    Reds AA 205 PA’s, BABIP .383, wRC+ 124
    Reds AAA 11 PA’s, BABIP .353, wRC+ 86

    In Reds A he hit 3 HR, and had 26 RBI, and he had 49 SO and 12 Walks in 228 PA
    In Reds A+ he hit 28 HR’s, and had 132 RBI, and he had 141 SO, and 63 Walks, in 701 PA
    In Reds AA he hit 1 HR, and had 33 RBI, and he had 62 SO, and 39 Walks, in 304 PA
    Observations
    In A+ ball (West Coast) it is believed that power numbers are suspect.
    In 2013 on being promoted to AA his numbers dipped, the learning curve started,
    In 2014 starting at AA his numbers went back up, Learning being out into practice.
    In 2014 on being promoted to AAA his number are slipping again (see Chart on link) but if he is learning again they should show improvement by year end.
    For a June 2011 draft pick to be at AAA in 3 years shows me Walt thinks he has something special and he is keeping it to himself.
    So if history repeats sometime mid-season or later next year we just may see Steve Selsky at GABP Play a corner OF spot

  5. another test post

    Rookie Ball 89 PA, BABIP .339 , wRC+ 172

    2012 Split season
    Reds A 246 PA’s, BABIP .343 , wRC+ 102
    Reds A+ 307 PA’s, BABIP .402, wRC+ 164

    2013 Split season
    Reds A+ 394 PA’s,, BABIP .352, wRC+ 134
    Reds AA 99 PA’s, BABIP .234, wRC+ 45

    2014 Split season
    Reds AA 205 PA’s, BABIP .383, wRC+ 124
    Reds AAA 11 PA’s, BABIP .353, wRC+ 86

  6. Rookie Ball___ 89 PA, BABIP .339 , wRC+ 172
    2012 Split season
    Reds A _____246 PA’s, BABIP .343 , wRC+ 102
    Reds A+ ____307 PA’s, BABIP .402, wRC+ 164
    2013 Split season
    Reds A+ ____394 PA’s,, BABIP .352, wRC+ 134
    Reds AA _____99 PA’s, BABIP .234, wRC+ 45
    2014 Split season
    Reds AA ____205 PA’s, BABIP .383, wRC+ 124
    Reds AAA ____11 PA’s, BABIP .353, wRC+ 86

  7. another test post

    Name Team Age PA AVG OBP SLG OPS wRC wRAA wOBA wRC+
    Xavier Paul Orioles (AAA) 29 152 0.251 0.303 0.456 0.759 19 1.2 0.338 107
    Chris Dickerson Pirates (AAA) 32 173 0.329 0.411 0.509 0.919 31 11.5 0.413 158
    Paul Janish Rockies (AAA) 31 140 0.221 0.266 0.252 0.518 7 -11.5 0.242 37
    Adam Rosales Rangers (AAA) 31 212 0.278 0.354 0.417 0.771 29 1.3 0.347 105
    Chris Valaika Cubs (AAA) 28 190 0.291 0.361 0.426 0.786 26 1.6 0.349 106
    Kristopher Negron Reds (AAA) 28 136 0.276 0.336 0.447 0.783 19 2.9 0.355 119
    . Here are five “Blasts from The Past” that many of you may have seen play for our beloved Reds. Current as of 6/6/14.

    Name ______Team_________Age_____PA___AVG_____wRC+
    Xavier Paul_____Orioles (AAA) 29______152__.251______107
    Chris Dickerson__Pirates (AAA) 32______173__.329______158
    Paul Janish_____Rockies (AAA) 31______140__.221_______37
    Adam Rosales___Rangers (AAA) 31______212__.278______105
    Chris Valaika____Cubs (AAA) 28______190__.291______106
    Kris Negron_____Reds (AAA) 28______136__.276______119

  8. Name __________Team_________Age_____PA___AVG_____wRC+
    Xavier Paul_____Orioles (AAA)___ 29______152__.251______107
    Chris Dickerson__Pirates (AAA)___32______173__.329______158
    Paul Janish_____Rockies (AAA)__ 31______140__.221_______37
    Adam Rosales___Rangers (AAA)_ 31______212__.278______105
    Chris Valaika____Cubs (AAA)____ 28______190__.291______106
    Kris Negron_____Reds (AAA)____ 28______136__.276______119

  9. another test post

    Name __________Team_________Age_____PA___AVG_____wRC+
    Xavier Paul_____Orioles (AAA)___ 29______152__.251______107
    Chris Dickerson__Pirates (AAA)___32______173__.329______158
    Paul Janish_____Rockies (AAA)__ 31______140__.221_______37
    Adam Rosales___Rangers (AAA)_ 31______212__.278______105
    Chris Valaika____Cubs (AAA)____ 28______190__.291______106
    Kris Negron_____Reds (AAA)____ 28______136__.276______119

  10. Need A left fielder try this one from up the road.
    Michael Brantley – Cleveland Indians
    Birthdate: 5/15/1987 (27 y, 1 m, 11 d) Bats/Throws: L/L Height/Weight: 6-2/200 Position: OF
    • $25m / 4 Years (2014 – 2017) + 1 Option Years (Edit)
    o signed by Cleveland Indians on 2/10/2014 (Avoided Arbitration)
    o 2014: $1.5M, 2015: $5M, 2016: $6.5M, 2017: $7.5M
    Results MLB
    2012 MLB PA 609, Rbi 60, Avg. .288, wRC+ 106, WAR 2.7
    2013 MLB PA 611, Rbi 73, Avg. .284, wRC+ 104, WAR 1.7
    2014 MLB PA 320, Rbi 53, Avg. .325, wRC+ 162, WAR 2.9

    2008 AA wRC+ 127, Avg. .319, BABIP .332
    2010 AAA wRC+ 127, Avg. .319 BABIP .312
    2014 MLB wRC+ 162, Avg. .325 BABIP .331

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s