Titanic Struggle Recap

Game 48: Sunday Night Knothole Baseball

Final R H E
St. Louis Cardinals (28-22)
4 11 0
Cincinnati Reds (22-26)
0 6 2
W: Adam Wainwright (8-2)   L: Mike Leake (2-4)
Box Score | Play-by-Play | Stats | Depth Chart | FanGraphs Win Probability

The Good

Another terrific pitching performance tonight from Mike Leake, who hung in there for 6 innings, surrendering 2 runs and 7 hits, while collecting 8 Ks and walking 2.

Billy Hamilton made a spectacular diving catch on the warning track reminiscent of a catch I saw Ryan Freel make against Albert Pujols in August of 2006. I was at the game and Freel got several standing ovations from the GABP crowd that night.

J.J. Hoover pitched a strong 8th. He’s now faced 22 batters in his last five appearances without giving up a run and allowing only one hit.

The Bad

Yes. It was Wainwright on the mound. Nevertheless, the first four batters in the lineup went hitless tonight with one walk.

The Ugly

Put the Reds in a close game with the St. Louis Cardinals and eventually they will wet the bed. Sugar coat it any way you want, but this team finds a way to wilt when they see St. Louis take the field. Relievers will melt. Runners will trip. Fundamentals will go out the window. Tonight,  Mesoraco threw a ball away and Manny Parra ran Matt Holliday into Zack Cozart before throwing a seed at Zack from 5 feet away, handcuffing the sure-handed shortstop.

Cue up the calliope music.

Not so random thoughts …

Adam Wainwright was masterful tonight and this was not a game the Reds were going to win. Still, instead of finishing strong, they wore the dunce hat with their poor play late in the game.

The club now jumps on a plane and heads west to face the 4th best starting staff in the NL, just behind the Reds with a team ERA of 3.27.

There are 114 games left in the season. Mat Latos looked great today in his first rehab assignment. That’s the best I can do tonight.

The Daily Billy: Again, a brilliant catch by Hamilton in CF tonight. But at the plate, he was simply overwhelmed by Wainwright at the plate.

72 thoughts on “Game 48: Sunday Night Knothole Baseball

    • The talk of specific tests that must be passed before Votto can return; and, the fact he made it clear the decision was out of his hands conjures up thoughts of attorneys reviewing whatever salary insurance coverage they have on Votto’s contract to make sure they don’t fritter away a possible big $$$ claim.

        • Who knows? First it is speculation on my part that they have insurance on his salary but from what I’ve read and heard over the years, I would suspect they have at least partial coverage on a contract that large and long. From there it is between the team and the underwriter what level and degree of stop loss coverage is the team prepared to pay for once the actuaries grind out the numbers.

          I’ve often wondered whether MLB has some sort of shared risk catastrophic pool for really big contracts like Votto’s. not that what he has now would begin to qualify for that now.

      • That seems like a leap. He was just talking about the trainers’ tests – the same agility tests you saw Bruce going through. The same way you see pitchers long throwing before they’re allowed to throw off a mound.

        • Have you read the Fay article (linked below) or some of the other similar pieces? There is a wholly different attitude coming from the player since they moved forward with putting him on the DL with no real optimism or speculation of when he might be back, only when he passes the tests and “they” say it is OK for him to play.

        • I read the Fay article and I didn’t really take anything away from it than I have from any other player talking about an injury. I don’t know the context of how the questions were being asked – I’m assuming you’re referring to his “That’s none of your business” quote which was a LITTLE odd, but I can also totally imagine a flock of reporters annoying Joey Votto. I just don’t know where you made the leap from that to lawyers and salary insurance. Again, “they” means the trainers and that’s how things work with any professional athlete. I think you’re looking for zebras. It’s just horses, man.

  1. The recaps this year are so quick to post. It’s like they’re being mass produced, a week in advance. Never seen the like, in over four years on the site.

  2. Richard, thanks as always for your blunt assessment. Sugar coating things never has made me feel better. Same with Chad on the Game Thread. You guys are first class.

    • Agreed. Wanted to let you guys that run the site know you do a great job in all aspects. I very much enjoy reading every day. Also, I really enjoy the podcasts. For us diehard Redleg fans, it’s great stuff. Keep it coming fellas. Go reds!

  3. If I were the Reds I’d trade Jay Bruce and Johnny Cueto right now. This team as presently constituted is going nowhere fast and they’d get a REALLY good return on those two guys.

    • Who would we get that would make this team better. And why do you want to trade away guys if we have rooted for for the last decade? Its more than just rooting for the laundry.

        • I disagree strongly with the premise that we should trade Jay Bruce, but it’s pretty clear no trade the Reds made involving those 2 would make the team better this year. Any trade would be to make the team better in 2015 and beyond.

          That said, the Reds reluctance to let go of aging stars has proven to be a thorn in the side of the organization.

        • CP, yes to all points made here. Do not trade Bruce, he is having a miserable season and I would to see him on a rehab assignment. Within a season, Jay Bruce is as streaky as they come but year to year it is hard to imagine a more consistent player. That player is very good too. He hustles, can field, hit with power, and run the bases well. He should be a pillar in the Reds foundation for the next 3 to 5 years.

          If the Reds are realistically out of the hunt in the next 2 to 4 weeks, any trade should be aimed at improving the teams fortunes in 2015 and beyond. The worse thing that they could do is hang on to its aging stars if there are any decent options available.

          If Cueto stays healthy, he would bring more back in a trade than any other player on the team. We can’t afford another $20 mil/year player and probably can’t afford the one we already have. A little more Oakland A’s and a little less NY Yankees.

      • Something needs to be done to shake this offense. No sacred cows as far as I’m concerned. And with their team-friendly contracts, Bruce and Cueto would bring in a fairly spectacular haul of prospects AND major-league ready talent.

      • I agree with this post, but disagree slightly with your next one. There is a window now, but it wasn’t fully open even before all of the injuries. Building a strong organization and acquiring and keeping prospects is the only viable way for Reds to have windows now or in the future. That said, I wouldn’t trade Cueto or Bruce, either, for the reasons you suggest. They are ageing, of course, and so is every other person on the planet. But they aren’t old.

  4. “Put the Reds in a close game with the St. Louis Cardinals and eventually they will wet the bed.”

    So, so true. If there was ever clubhouse material to post & motivate, even though it won’t, this is it. SO true. And, yet, every Reds fan knows it to be true.

    • Sean Marshall would be right there with Bruce if one presumes there is anything left on Marshall’s arm to be recovered.

        • Yep and he is owed about $3.85M for the rest of this year and $6.5M for 2015. They must be hoping he can catch a little lightning in a bottle and somebody will be desperate enough for a LOOGY to take on a significant portion of the money outstanding on him.

    • Gotta remember that Jay, uninjured and not coming off the DL, is really streaky. Might this not be a cold streak?

  5. I think Lincoln had, like, over an hour to write the Gettysburg Address, on the train ride from Washington, D.C. Price has quite a few more hours, on the plane ride out to LA, to come up with something to rededicate his team to the cause. Of course, he might be distracted by trying to figure out where to place Neftali Soto in the lineup. Or, on the field.

  6. Actually I thought Billy Hamilton showed signs he is learning how to become a better all around hitter with the at bat against Wainright when he battled very well against Wainright before being called out on strikes by a bad call by the ump. Hamilton is doing everything you want a rookie to do as far as learning and growing as he goes along. There is no shame in being shutout by Adam Wainright, but there is shame in poor fundamentals, and losing your composure. The lack of fundamentals is a direct reflection of having a rookie manager that has yet gained the confidence to take his players to task for poor play. Price showed signs of perhaps he’s the type of manager that runs a tight ship when he had the supposed butt kicking meeting in the dugout a few days ago. Losing is bad enough, but looking fundamentally inept while losing is inexcusable.

    • Have to disagree about Price’s role in all of this. The Reds starting eight can field with the best, despite a coupe of ugly games the last week. The Reds problem is the starting eight is collectively below average hitting the baseball. It was true last year and it is true this year. The Reds are essentially the same team this year with a noticeable drop off in the lead-off spot; as the GM did nothing again to address the dire need for right handed punch in the line-up.

      • What should he have done? Traded Leake? Then we could have had Jeff Francis in the starting rotation all year.

        • Tried? Are you serious? The GM does not get paid to try. He gets paid for results. This is a painfully boring team to watch and the person most responsible for that is the GM. Add to that the fact there is nothing in the upper levels of the system to help and you have a team that is in trouble.

  7. Just last week a number of posters on this site said only 3 Cards at the most could start for the Reds. I thought it odd at the time and now that the Cards have won another series from the Reds I wonder if any of the Reds who started tonight would start for the Cardinals. (slight exaggeration to make the point the Reds really aren’t that good)

    I actually thought the Reds had chances to even the game against Wainwright but again their inability to hit got in the way.

    I realize I’ll get criticized for saying it but truth be told the Reds are a very boring baseball team. This is not pushing any panic button or reacting just to another beating by the Cards. I sat through the debacle last week in Washington and the win the next day and have seen most of the other games this season on TV and this club is just plain boring. And it this was true last year. It is a team without a personality and a leader and frankly one lacking in talent.

    I feel bad for Castellini because he has put his money where is mouth is and attempted to put a team on the field that will compete for the grand prize, world series title, Unfortunately, this team is not built for that run. Great starting pitching and not much else. There just isn’t a ton of talent and there isn’t much to get fans excited about.

    I hope at some point the GM is held somewhat accountable for the inability to put a team on the field that can hit and produce runs. So how does that Scott Rolen trade look now?

    • Sadly, all this is true. The 2012 Reds, without Joey Votto & then Dusty Baker, were a fun team to watch. Passion. Energy. Enthusiasm. Last year, they went through the motions, and this year, it feels like they’re all waiting at the DMV, for their number to be called. Again, first-year manager & zero help from your GM will all lend itself to this. I really believe WJ conceded this season. I wonder what he has up his sleeve next year?

      • I don’t think anything was conceded. I think the Reds have done such a poor job distributing their money and developing talent that they have little in the way of money to sign needed offensive help and they have very little talent in the minors to call-up or to use as trade bait. Those issues fall to the GM

        • This discussion occurs after most losses. It’s hard to argue that the Reds don’t need serious upgrades in LF and the bullpen, but the first question is: Who was (is) available who would actually be an upgrade? Second question: Whom do we trade to get this unnamed savior? An upgrade at one position certainly requires weakening another–in this case, in all probability, starting pitching. Add one good, if unnamed, bat to the lineup and trade a starter, and likely, a good prospect or two, and can you honestly say that the Reds would be making a serious run for the championship? It is highly unlikely that WJ “sat on his hands” all winter. It’s more likely that the deals he could have made had a price too high to pay. Absent the abnormal number of injuries to key players, the Reds would, in all probability, be in the hunt right now. Patience.

      • Highest payroll in the division hardly seems like a concession to me. I just think he hasn’t put together a very good team and hired the wrong manager.

        • The manager has had a few missteps but he is not to blame for the current position of the Reds. Injuries and lack of talent are the main culprits. One assumes the injuries are just bad luck, but the lack of talent is an issue that should be addressed. Who is responsible for evaluating that talent and compiling the roster? The GM.

        • Price, to me, has done the best he can with the resources he has at his disposal: An injury list a mile long, and an organization that sat on their hands during the winter. For what they are, given everything that has happened, a 22-26 record is better than most expected I’m sure.

          He has shown he is not afraid to shuffle the lineup (not quite to the tune of Joe Maddon pulling names out of a hat to put his lineups together), but he has been doing things that Dusty Baker never would have (batting catcher second, fifth etc.), and shuffling around to try and find something that works.

          I don’t think they hired the wrong manager, I just think that the organization should have done a better job of putting together a team that he could use to win (barring injuries of course). WJ is too content to wait until FA’s hit the bargain bin instead of being more aggressive.

        • I don’t think they hired the wrong manager {Price}, I just think that the organization should have done a better job of putting together a team that he could use to win (barring injuries of course).

          Another way of looking at this is that the manager’s skills and skills/ personality of the roster assembled for him may be mismatched, just like a lot of other pieces about this team..

          I think it is fair to ask whether they would have hired the same manager if they knew then what they know now about injuries and player disabilities/ availability and whether proper due diligence was done concerning whether the likes of Latos, Marshall, Broxton, and Votto would be “100%” for the start of the 2014 season as all of these situations existed to varying degrees when the managerial decision was made,

  8. Real talk: who is the LF-of-the-future? Shouldn’t “he” already be here? Isn’t this a major issue with this offense?

    Just asking… Thanks.

  9. DFA : ONDRUSEK, BERENADINA, SANTIAGO

    BRING UP JUMBO, NELSON, AND GOTAY. AND WHY’S LUTZ UP HERE TO RIDE THE BENCH?

  10. I abandoned ship when Parra got in trouble … what was the story on Leake getting pulled? Not that it would have mattered, but I was surprised he wasn’t back out there, especially considering what we know of this bullpen and no off day today.

  11. Nice write up Richard. It was fun to look back at that Freel game. Is it too ironic that Eric Milton pitched in that game?

  12. The Reds may not win this year; it happens, sometimes, even without having lots of injuries. But it’s ridiculous to conclude at this point that Price is a terrible manager, and the evidence for dumping on Jocketty isn’t that strong, either.

    Wainwright is probably the best pitcher in baseball right now. Being helped greatly by the umpire–go look at the 1st pitch strikes called on our #2 and #3 hitters leading off the 6th for evidence of some very inconsistent strike calling–made it even easier for him.

    If we don’t win this year, it will probably be because our middle relief continues to let us down. I believe we’ll hit when healthy–and I think you guys are reading way too much into Votto’s comments–but Marshall doesn’t currently have what it takes to get the job done, the light refuses to come on for Ondrusek, and Parra is OK but not great especially against RH bats. I’m guessing Cingrani goes to the ‘pen, not because I think Simon can keep it up, but because we need a LHP and we don’t need a starter who has trouble going deep in games.

    • Great comments. If the Reds get their butts handed to them on the west coast, I would be okay with taking steps toward 2015:

      I hope you are right about Votto but if he played for another team, I would think the guy is on a step slope downward. Because he plays for our guys, I would like to suspend this way of thinking but don’t know. In sober mode, I think we have every reason to be concerned. What is going on with his knee?? My inclination would be to shut him down for the rest of the season and pray that he can return to Joeyness in 2015.

      I would look to do a trade for Simon. My take is, he vastly underrated by many here at the Nation and is worth quite a bit to a team like the Yanks that have serious starting pitching issues.

      I would put Brayan Pena on the market as I believe his value is probably never going to be higher than it is at the deadline. We all fell in love with this guy for great reasons but would it be better to cash his value in for a prospect(s) and let the kid (Barnhart) get some MLB experience? The Reds a better understanding what his future may look like along with Lutz. If Joey has a long stay on the DL, it would be nice to see what this kid has in talent.

      Both these deals would not shake the foundation of the team and should bring back young talent that could start helping the club as soon as next year.

      • Votto’s on a steep downward decline after having a top 10 offensive season last year. O.o

        The Reds have bad contracts (Ludwick, Broxton, Marshall, to name a few) but Votto isn’t one of them. The organization failed to provide any depth, kept the same disastrous bullpen intact, counted on a LF who has had one good season in six years to provide middle of the order production, then suffered a tremendous amount of injuries right out of the gate.

        • Albert Pujols wasn’t on the steep decline his last year in St. Louis either. A chronic health condition can do that to a player. To blindly believe this couldn’t be the the case, would be folly. If it is, I would shut him down for the rest of 2014 because he has not been Joey this year. Sometimes when there is smoke, there is actually a fire and when 20% of the teams resources are tied to one player, it would be wise to do everything possible to protect its interests.

        • At some point even good contracts based on reasonable expectation of return become bad contracts for a specific team if so much of the team’s salary pool is tied up in them that the team is unable to support the good contracts with reasonable complimentary players and holes are created in the line up, rotation, and/ or defense. Might not the Reds be in such a situation (even if it is because of the inherently poor contracts)?

        • Votto is 30 years old. His contract values him at an average of about 4-5 WAR for the life of the contract. In 2012 before the injury he was headed for something a lot closer to 10 and he still ended up at 6 even missing almost a third of the season. Last year while basically rehabbing he put up 6.4. So assuming this injury is as advertised (and I’m not yet buying the conspiracy theories) He should be good for at least 5 this year. If he can average 5-6 over the next 3 years and then decline into the 3-4 for the next few years after that then the contract will be, on face value, just fine. Add in the inflation of the market over the next decade and it should look even better.

          The problem with the contract, as is the problem with a possible Cueto contract, is that we’re paying market value for wins. By doing it with Votto, we’ve pretty much excluded ourselves from doing it with anyone else long term…But we’re also doing it with BP and we just did it with Homer. We have to find a way to start getting discount wins below market value now – think Bruce or Cueto’s current deals. Leake, Frazier, Mes, Cingrani. Sadly, 2012 was probably our real shot with this current group of talent. We’re at the point now where we have to start dismantling a bit and building from the foundation again or we just won’t be able to keep up financially.

        • Eric you are dead on. The ship has sailed on this roster. 2012 was the year and without Cueto’s injury it’s possible the golden ring would have been the Reds that year. It’s not jumping ship or being negative to acknowledge this team is not championship caliber. Frankly they may finish fourth. Lots of mistakes on contracts, lack of depth in the organization and a ton of injuries so its no surprise the team is in decline.

        • He did have a top ten season last year, but also showed a decline in power–specifically doubles and homers. I believe that is related to this very persistent injury, and worry that his knee will never again be 100%. Is he still a valuable hitter? Of course. Is he more dependent upon other players to drive him in? Of course. Is he, if his injury is chronic, in decline? Of course.

  13. Tons of injuries + very little depth + counting on offensive production from the wrong guys = 2014 disaster.

    It’s just not our year.

    • Very little depth? Only a handful of teams have a 6th starter as good as Simon has been. Even people who don’t like Heisey agree he’s an excellent 4th outfielder. And Schumaker appears to be a pretty good backup, too. How many teams have a better backup catcher than Peña? I agree we’re weak at backup SS and 2B, but we haven’t needed depth there.

      Sorry, but this “weak depth” argument just doesn’t fly…except in the bullpen. And unfortunately, we’ve really needed depth there, especially with injuries to both our RH and LH setup guys as well as our closer. But not many teams could get through that unscathed.

      Honestly, between the brutal schedule and injuries, it’s pretty impressive we’re only a few games below .500. I still believe that with health and maybe one more good arm in the pen (Cingrani?) we are capable of a run.

      • I’ve banged the drum on Heisey being a “great 4th outfielder” for a while, but he’s not even living up to that this anymore. Fact is his OPS+ has been declining steadily for 4 years. It’s only been over 100 since 2011. I think the Chris Heisey experiment is over. It was one thing when he could hold his own at around a 90 OPS+. That’s pretty good for a 4th OF. But now he’s in the low 70′s and that doesn’t even deserve a bench spot for an OF. If he could play an IF spot it would be different. I don’t see him in a Reds uniform next year.

  14. Sadly, I was pretty resigned to a season like this before it ever started. I never expected this many injuries, but we’ve had some very lucky (yes, lucky) starting pitching and that has mostly evened things out. I think at full strength with regular luck we probably wouldn’t be that much better off in the W-L column than we are now.

    Which isn’t to say this season is a disaster. The closer we get to the break and the further we get from actually contending, I’m starting to hope we fall out of it a bit sooner than later. Three reasons:

    1. Take the pressure off Billy Hamilton. He’s actually been pretty good for a rookie who was rushed through AAA. If the team is no longer pushing for a championship he can hopefully relax a bit and take this year as the much needed experience it is. I’d expect a much improved second half of the year and a big jump next year.

    2. Take the pressure off Bryan Price. Basically see #1. Price’s job is secure – no one could blame a poor season on him given the injuries. So spend the rest of this year figuring out the finer points of managing. There have been hiccups, but those don’t matter as much when you’re out of it.

    3. Restock the farm. For the last 4-5 years we have always been in contention at the deadline. As such, we’ve always been buyers on the market (if active at all) and it’s pretty easy to see the effect that’s had on the farm. You keep up that strategy long enough, eventually guys get hurt (Votto, Latos) or they get old and ineffective (Ludwick, Marshall) and those things tend to happen in bunches. So hopefully this year we can make some moves at the deadline to bring in some offensive prospects. Simon should be a valuable trading chip, as might Cueto depending on your opinion of how likely or smart it would be to give him a Verlander-esque contract. Bruce might also be a possibility as he’s due to get much more expensive in not too long. If Brandon brings his numbers up a bit more there might be some renewed interest there. And of course there’s always Chapman, though I doubt he has much value since he’s basically a free agent after this year but you never know what contender might want a door closer for the rest of the season.

    I’m not hoping for a complete fallout. I’ll be thrilled if we go out west and snap off a 7 game winning streak and find ourselves right back in it. But that’s starting to look more and more unlikely. Just trying to find the silver lining. We didn’t take any positives away from 2011 and that was a mistake. Hopefully Walt learned a lesson. I don’t think he’s used to seeing his plan not work out – it seems like he’s never really had to adjust. Well, it’s time to adjust, Walt.

  15. Given the offensive insufficiency of this team and the over-priced, ineffective bullpen, when do you guys think the Reds should begin unloading unproductive players? I’m not talking about Votto, Bruce, etc. but the high-priced dead weight on the team. Either trade them or DFA them and bring up some of the young minor league talent – not the dead weight at AAA but the prospects at AA. Would the offense be any worse? Doubtful. I sometimes get the feeling the Reds keep their top prospects in the minors too long. Lutz, Winkler, Rodriquez, etc. can’t be worse than Ludwick, Heisey, Bernadina, etc. Reds management and many in the media often point out that Homer Bailey was rushed to the big leagues, which hurt his development – this seems to be used as an excuse to keep guys in the minors longer. Was Homer’s development really hurt or is he simply a very talented pitcher who at best is a .500 pitcher capable of the occasional gem? (not meant to dump on homer but Chris Welsh always points out that he was rushed to the majors) I would be fine watching the young guys develop at the major league level – we would take our beatings along the way but we’re doing that anyway. Get what you can in trades now to replenish the farm system and go with our young talent. Even if Votto gets healthy (a BIG if), does this team have a championship run in it? See what we can get for Pena, Chapman, Heisey (and a few others), bring up the young guys, and sit Votto for the year so he can get healthy – give Lutz and extended look at firstbase. While it is still early and we do have a small sample size, it’s almost June and the sample size gets bigger everyday. I’m not sure it’s as early as we think. Can anyone see this team putting togehter 8-10 wins in a row or winning 12 out of 16, etc? With each each passing game I find myself less optimistic. I don’t really have the time or the expertise to crunch all the numbers but I wonder what you guys think?

  16. Cardinals know how to win, Reds don’t. Haven’t we read this book before? Just hang around untll the All-Star break and try not to get more than 10 games out. No offense is getting old. Paging Brook Jacoby? Went to the SF Giants game yesterday. That is quietly a good team. Wish we had Morse.

    • Yes they are. I doubt the Reds would bite off the $6M that Morse is making this year. To give you an idea what $20M gets you with the Giants: Pagan $10.25 & Morse $6M + $4M to sign a FA or trade for an upgrade for the bench. Morse $6M & Hunter Pence $16M. I wouldn’t endorse signing or trading for any of these guys because they are on the wrong side of 30 but it gives you some idea what $20M will get you in established quality players. Morse could be a monster in LF at GABP.

        • You are correct and I never said they were. If they try to extend a healthy JC,I’d guess they have two 20+ guys in two years. Can a team with a $100 to 120 million dollar payroll, afford to pay two guys a 1/3, or more, of the total payroll? That is my question for you.

  17. BHam certainly looked “overmatched” at the plate last as nearly every Red did. The first time against Waino, he was 0-4 with a Golden Sombrero. Last night he 0-3 with three Ks but a walk. Opening day against W he saw 17 pitches, last night 21. Even with a dismal night, he looked better at the plate and at least walked.

    I’m sure he will face Wainwright again this year and it will be interesting to see if he can cut back his walks further and actually put a ball in play. Baby steps, he is a rookie against a Master Pitcher.

    • Wow, that’s digging deep to find a positive: one less strikeout :-) Last night was the perfect time for him to at least make a serious attempt to bunt his way on, and aside from one bunt that he popped foul I don’t recall him making a serious attempt. (Similarly, I thought Bruce had a couple of chances to bunt into the shift in game situations where it made sense.)

      • Yes indeed, wasn’t easy to find a positive for young Billy at the plate (LOL). AW obviously has his number it would be a great sign if Billy can put the ball in play next time around.

        Whether it’s bunting, or something else, the Reds need to try a different approach with Wainwright. Certainly was man against boys last night.

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