Game Thread

Padres at Reds (May 15, Game 1)

The Reds take on the Padres in the first game of a day-night doubleheader. They face San Diego pitcher Ian Kennedy, who has pitched well this season so far, as this chart indicates. He’s had virtually the same strikeout rate as Johnny Cueto and a lower walk rate. That’s not to say he’s a better pitcher than Cueto (remember we’re dealing with a sample size of 8 games here), only that so far, based on those metrics, he’s pitched well. The offensively challenged Reds could once again have their hands full.

Wednesday

Bryan Price sends out this lineup. Apparently the Brayan Peña batting second experiment is over. Peña went hitless in his twelve at bats in the second spot. I’m not a fan of Joey Votto batting fourth. His OBP is valuable at the top of the lineup and he’d get about 35 fewer at bats hitting fourth over the course of a season compared to hitting second. It’ll be interesting to see what happens when Devin Mesoraco returns, presumably this weekend.

1. Billy Hamilton (S) CF
2. Skip Schumaker (L) RF
3. Brandon Phillips (R) 2B
4. Joey Votto (L) 1B
5. Todd Frazier (R) 3B
6. Ryan Ludwick (R) LF
7. Brayan Pena (S) C
8. Zack Cozart (R) SS
9. Johnny Cueto (R) P

331 thoughts on “Padres at Reds (May 15, Game 1)

    • Please keep in mind the greatest hitters in the history of the game are only successful 1/3 of the time. Hitting a baseball at this level is very.very hard.

        • Just trying give it all a sense of perspective, not meant as an insult. Game is 0-0 and the best pitcher is throwing for our team. Look around, there are a ton of very low scoring games.

      • It is one of the better stats are you kidding me? Shows a players true value. How well do you hit with runners on second and third and you think that isn’t a good metric to track? Please.

        • It’s an interesting stat to track, but what is difficult to understand that at the end of the day, a players avg. with RISP is going to be very close to his overall avg. It’s just simply not something that statistically speaking, gets better or worse for a player just because of the situation.

    • and spot on with the Reds inability to score runs. Thanks for the link Ellis. Yeah the past two years he has fallen off of a cliff for driving in runs.

    • I like to see a study that shows the top 100 RISP ers of all time, minimum of 1000 ABs or whatever, then compare to their lifetime stats
      then take the top 100 obp of all time and compare their RISP with the top 100, I would suspect you would not see much difference outside of a few outliers. If Votto is one of teh outliers then maybe some have a point.

      • I think the point is clearly obvious. Compare 2008-2012 Votto against 2013-2014 Votto. Even in 2012 you can see an increase in OBP and a decline in SLG. His approach changed, and it has affected his hitting with RISP & 2 outs. It’s quite possible that the league has adjusted to Votto’s approach at the plate after recognizing his selectivity and willingness to take the walk. Pitch him off the plate, don’t give him a chance to drive the ball and hope he chases a pitch out of the zone.

  1. Baseball is a funny game. If Cueto gets the bunt down earlier, Alonso is at his normal defensive spot and that’s an easy groundout and the inning is over. Because he wasn’t, now we have runners at the corners for Phillips.

  2. This offense is so terrible. This team sucks. The season is over.

    Oh wait, it’s 3-0 Reds in the 5th inning of a game in May.

  3. It’s time for a whole lot of “I Told You So’s” from those of us in the BP cheering section. I am so glad we didn’t give away my favorite player.

    • Phillips has had a good couple weeks, but that’s not out of line with generally being in decline. His numbers outside of batting average still aren’t that great. He does seem to hit better after days off, which isn’t surprising for an older player.

  4. With how Cueto has pitched so far this season that may be enough…

    BTW anyone notice what kind of crowd is there for those of us stuck in our offices today…

    • Yeah. It would have been much better if he had just struck out so we could get the next inning started.

        • Yeah really. I would take some unproven prospects over one of the top players in baseball any day of the week.

          Once we dump the dead weight that is Joey Votto, we can go ahead and book our World Series tickets.

      • Yeah, what’s he doing even swinging? Doesn’t he know nothing good ever comes from swinging a bat?

        • I don’t know. I think he might should have swung the bat more that first at-bat when he walked. I mean, he was thrown 5 pitches, none of which were in the strike zone, and he only expanded his zone to swing at one of them. He’s being paid the big bucks to swing at everything.

  5. But don’t you guys think that this is just classic BP? He has basically hit like this his whole career…He’s a lot like Bruce without the reputation: He’ll hit like a mad man for about two weeks, then go cliff diving. Repeat. It’s awesome while it happens, but he still ends up back down at .270 and less power.

    • I will say this about Phillips. It sure seems he has cut down his strikeouts over the last couple weeks. He’s putting the ball in play a lot more, and he’s driving the ball with power. Hopefully he stays hot for a good long while.

      • It seems like he is taking more pitches and I am almost sure he has walked more after that game off than he did all season

  6. we got the lead as long as we win I don’t care about the who is hot and who is not. Let’s hope Dr. Cueto shuts down the Padres for the rest of the game and walks away with a shut out.

  7. I am of the camp that BP was going to rebound a bit but the “BP in decline” argument has merit. I’m just glad to see him on a roll right now and I’m glad he’s still a Red because I didn’t like the other options. I like BP but that doesn’t mean he’s not in decline. We’ll see at the end of the year. I love what he’s doing right now though. Maybe he needs a day off every now and then when he’s struggling? That really seemed to help. He’s been money since.

    • Exactly. It’s a big picture issue, not a two week sample. There’s a lot of ball to be played before any assessments can be fairly levied.

      • I suspect he has an undisclosed health issue. He has almost no ability to drive the ball like he used to. Yeah he had two homers in two games and that was fantastic but he is playing like he is on fumes and the tank is empty or something is nagging at him.

    • And he’s not just had that one off day when the Reds played, but he’s had three scheduled off days and one rainout day over that time. Sounds like it might be interesting to see if he’s hit better all year after days of not playing.

  8. “I’m just glad to see him on a roll right now and I’m glad he’s still a Red because I didn’t like the other options”.

    This.

    It’s similar to the BHam thing with me. I didn’t think he was ready for primetime, thought if he was going to be in the lineup he needed to bat at the end, but our other options at the top of the order were…….lacking. If he was going to be an everyday player, he had to be leadoff, IMO. Ride Brandon til he drops, give him a couple days off and hope we can ride him again.

  9. I agree about the rest observation with BP. Maybe Price needs to try to get him a day off every 10 games or so. Just hopefully not always on a Sunday.

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