Game Thread

Padres at Reds (May 14, 2014)

Is there any lineup that Price can throw together tonight that may score the Reds more runs than the opponent? Or at least not lose by a 1-run margin?

Johnny Cueto takes to the mound tonight with a polished 1.43 ERA but a mediocre 3-2 record to show for it. You can thank his offense for the poor modest record. Let’s hope the good guys can generate some offense while Johnny Cueto continues being Johnny Cueto.

Lineup:
1. Billy Hamilton CF
2. Skip Schumaker RF
3. Brandon Phillips 2B
4. Joey Votto 1B
5. Todd Frazier 3B
6. Ryan Ludwick LF
7. Brayan Pena C
8. Zack Cozart SS
9. Johnny Cueto P

Wednesday

42 thoughts on “Padres at Reds (May 14, 2014)

    • I think when Cueto’s other stats are all so stellar quoting the mediocre W/L record is a way of saying just how inept this team has been when Cueto has been on the mound. How does a pitcher pitcher go over 7 inning a start with other stats Cueto has compiled and have a record like Cueto’s unless the offense is totally bad.

      • How in the world do Ian Kennedy & Johnny Cueto have the exact same xFIP and SIERRA? What value do these stats provide? Every series they are posted and they appear to be totally disconnected from reality. Advanced stats have value but they have crater size holes in them. Just one man’s opinion.

        • First of all, Ian Kennedy is a good pitcher. You can see he strikes out the same percentage as Cueto and walks fewer. His swinging strike rate is about the same. So don’t discount him. Cueto has been great, but he’s been really lucky too if you’re just looking at the runs he’s given up.

          You ask what value they provide. That’s a great question. They provide a prediction, based on the parts of performance that pitchers can control, of how well the pitcher will do in the future.

          If you’re simply looking at one thing – how many runs a pitcher has given up in the past – then ERA is the stat for you.

          Answer this Charlotte: At the end of the year, do you expect Cueto’s actual ERA to be closer to 1.43 (current ERA) or 2.67 (current xFIP and SIERA)?

        • I will project 2.35. I’d really like to see who is more accurate at the end of the year.. But what are you telling me than is Kennedy and Cueto will have the same ERA? Yea, Cueto has been lucky for quite a few years after a while it is no longer luck in my opinion. When healthy, he is one of the very best pitchers in all of baseball if not the very best.

          In 8 seasons the great Kennedy has a 3.96 ERA. Last 3 years ERA: 4.24, 5.23, 4.91 and you want me to think he is going to have a 2.68 same as Cueto? Like I said I don’t really know what xFIP and SIERRA are supposed to tell me.

        • Those stats tell you – based on strikeouts, walks, ground ball percentage (SIERA) – how those pitchers have pitched this year and how that extrapolates to a future performance. It’s put on an ERA scale out of convention. Kennedy has pitched as well as Cueto so far this year, in terms of factors that pitchers control. His strikeout, walk and swing-miss rates are right there to see. Those aren’t anything fancy.

          I think what most people have a hard time grasping is that the number of RUNS a pitcher gives up is one of the least meaningful stats (within a certain range) at indicating how well a pitcher has actually pitched and how well he will pitch in the future. Studies show that these other stats, that ignore RUNS, are better indicators.

          There are studies proving that ERA from the first half of the season is a lousy predictor for ERA the second half of that same pitcher’s season.

        • Kennedy may regress just like any other player might not keep up a strong start. But in terms of how he’s pitched so far this year, looking at the variables a pitcher can control, he’s pitched as well as Cueto. Looking at his history, I doubt he’ll keep that up. But the numbers are what they are.

  1. Reds just announced they don’t expect the game to start on time. I’m not at the game tonight. It poured in the northern suburbs about an hour ago, but it’s stopped for now. Weather forecast for downtown is 100% chance of rain for a couple hours. Gonna be a long night.

    • I’m almost never this definite about something so unpredictable as the weather…

      …but this time I’m saying there’s no way they’re playing tonight.

      • Being it’s San Diego, they will do everything possible to get it in. Might be a 2 am in the morning finish but it will take buckets of rain, hour after hour, to postpone this baby. Otherwise, I would think we get a daytime doubleheader tomorrow.

        • Yeah, even with the scheduling considerations, I don’t see any Reds baseball tonight.

        • Not necessarily doubting you, just that they will pull out all the stops to get it in; given the circumstances.

        • Ren, I nominate you for the official weather guru. You called it and I could not have been more wrong.

  2. Makes you wonder how Steve Carlton managed 27 wins on one of the worst teams in baseball at the time.
    Weather we like it or not a pitcher will be judged on the Won and Loss columns.

  3. Bet Cozart is happy that he has no pressure for his job and can run on the field on a nightly basis with a sub .200 average – testament to the non-urgency we have see entirely too much within this organization – talk abot head-scratchers !!!??

    • We’ll see comments on here. like “We have no one else available.” or “They need time to work it out.” or “If we send them down to AAA it will shake their confidence.”
      The funniest replies you’ll see is this one: “By Cozart is a legit power threat.”

      All lame excuses. Cozart is into his third year in the majors I believe.

      • Cozart is a threat to :
        1 – ground out to 3rd or short
        2- ground out to 3rd or short to start a double play
        3- weak popup to infield or shallow outfield
        4 – last ( but certainly not least) strikeout

      • This is at least the third time I’ve seen you comment about Cozart. At the risk of you saying “Ha! I told you so!” what would you do about the situation? Who would you give his playing time to that would provide as much value? It’s easy to look at a guy who is struggling and say “He’s terrible!” and lambast the organization for still running him out there. You’re the Reds skipper, what do you do to give your team the best chances of winning? Not the GM, not the owner.. the manager. What’s your call?

    • Yes, I’m sure that Cozart feels that way. He’s not feeling any pressure to perform at all. I’m surprised he’s not giggling on his way back to the dugout.

  4. Reds.com reporting Bruce already jogging and taking batting practice. That’s kind of a crazy recovery pace. I’m still going to be realistic and expect a noticeable power outage for him the rest of this year, but it still sounds like he might be back in the lineup sooner than I was thinking.

  5. Nobody said he’s not trying – HE IS NOT PRODUCING AND HAS NOT BEEN !- yet , the reds appear to have no other options – that IS the job of the GM to figure out , not mine- so yes, I’m tired if seeing the same old thing out of Cozart – would rather have more offense and less glove out of that position at this point

    • Calm down. Zack Cozart is now and has always been a below average major league hitter. That’s just what you pay for with him. His ceiling is an 80 OPS+ guy and it’s starting to look like that might not be realistic. It’s not his fault. The organization has to decide if there’s a move that makes sense to upgrade or if they can live with his defensive contribution with that kind of offensive production. To try and insinuate that Cozart isn’t “trying” is just trolling.

      • Who insinuated that ? I have never insinuated that Cozart isn’t trying – but you are exactly right in your assessment that the Reds have to decide if they can live with Cozart as is – because at this point he is what he is -

        • Sorry I might have unintentionally lumped you in with some of the nastier comments above. I hate any suggestion that a professional athlete who is on television for every second of his career might simply “not care” and go count his money without trying to help his team. I can’t imagine a guy like that surviving in a pro locker room.

        • Cozart’s woes wouldn’t be see so noticeable if the big boppers on this team were doing their job. (Votto/Bruce/Ludwick). It’s the guys you’re expecting to produce and aren’t that are the ones letting the offense down

  6. Not surprisingly, the game has been postponed to tomorrow. It is a little surprising that it’s not a traditional DH, so that they can get the Padres out of town earlier for their FRI game in Denver. Instead, it’s a day/night DH, with the second game starting at 6:05.

    • Its all about $$$$. if the Reds play it as a traditional DH, they lose a gate which is 1/81 of their home schedule. This way is 2 separate gates. I believe they have already forfeited one gate on the rescheduling of the Chicago rainout into a DH in July. I’m not that familiar with the rules but I believe that the suspended game completed the next night may have also cost them a ticket gate but of course they still got all the concession, souvenir, and parking money from the first night.

      • The Cubs makeup game is a DH with two separate gates.

        I know that IDEALLY they won’t lose any home games, but sometimes there isn’t much of a choice, if it causes undesirable travel concerns for one of the teams. I guess starting the game at 6:00 instead of 7:00 was enough of a compromise.

  7. To Eric NYC: You’re right such a guy wouldn’t survive a pro locker room, and he wouldn’t make it to the major leagues in the first place, unless he has a freakish level of talent.

  8. The Cardinals sure know how to use the rules: with a beat up bullpen and a struggling team, they called today’s game a few hours before it was supposed to start and instead of scheduling a DH tomorrow they rescheduled the game as part of a DH on August 30. By then, the Cubs will have been stripped for parts, and the Cardinals may not be struggling so much.

    • That is what I’m talking about. Maybe, just maybe, tomorrow is the start of the Reds first real winning streak. I look forward to Schu back in the #2 hole – not a savior but it will give the lineup a better chance to score runs.

  9. Any theories why the Reds are determined to push Simon back and start Francis? And can anyone explain why Francis was already called up prior to the first game (thereby leaving us with 24 players for that game) instead of waiting and adding him prior to the 2nd game as allowed by the “26th man” DH rules? I’m sure there are reasons; I’m just not sure what they are.

    Thanks in advance to anyone with plausible explanations.

  10. See new thread on starter speculation. Francis isn’t the 26th man. They haven’t announced yet who that is. Christiani was sent down. Latos was moved to 60-day DL to accommodate Francis being added to the 40-man roster. So they burned that move instead of using it to add Jumbo Diaz to the bullpen.

  11. in all honesty, This offense is too bad to contend. Not to upset the Votto worshipers but…clean up? No way. He is a 2 hole hitter at best, if not 7th. His inability to anything at all with runners on base(rest of the team included), is grounds for something different. Super Todd should have the 3 or 4 spot by now. Heisey wants to prove he is an every day player. He’s not. He has proven again and again he belongs on the bench to hit when needed. It is so frustrated watching other teams/ offenses do things that our guys won’t or can’t. Even our announcers have made comments about other teams batters adjusting their swing during an at bat when it’s obvious they are not going to get the pitch they want. Our guys do exactly what they are expected to do. Some guys pull, some guys go the other way, but they do it exclusively. They STILL go out there hacking at every first pitch, fall behind in the count early, then make and easy out. I was hoping this would all change with a new manager and a hitting coach. They say you can tell if a manager will be efficient by looking at the win loss record in one run games. Enough said. Need to blow this team up, salvage what we can, Trade for prospects even if it means giving away one of our starting rotation guys. Sad but true. Because non of our high paid players have any kind of trade value.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s