Game Thread

Brewers at Reds (May 1, 2014)

Seeing the Brewers record in the standings, I can’t help think of my favorite lyric from my favorite song:

“I’ve this creeping suspicion that things here are not as they seem…”

Maybe I’m wrong, but there is no way the Brewers are the best team in the NL Central.  Also, I don’t believe the Reds are a team that will continue to play sub .500 ball.  I feel the law of averages will eventually play out and the Reds will climb over .500 while the Brew Crew will inch closer to the mark.  I could not think of a better time for that to happen than tonight!

So discuss the game here, Reds fans… And hopefully we’ll be singing another favorite lyric of mine tonight… “Celebrate we will…”

Lineup:
1. Billy Hamilton – 8
2. Joey Votto – 3
3. Brandon Phillips – 4
4. Jay Bruce – 9
5. Todd Frazier – 5
6. Ryan Ludwick – 7
7. Zack Cozart – 6
8. Tucker Barnhart – 2
9. Homer Bailey – 1

286 thoughts on “Brewers at Reds (May 1, 2014)

    • The thing I’m really encouraged about is that it wasn’t just by the long ball. They scored a variety of ways and ran the bases smartly.

    • No… I agree. What’s he doing out there, unless it’s just a “gettin’ work” issue. Can’t remember what he’s done lately.

    • I’d use him. He was ready. He won’t be in this situation much longer. He’s getting stronger. We want to make a statement. Slam the door.

      You said “Brox” and “huge” in the same post. Heh.

  1. How about Cozart, rough calculation I have any at .297 with a .350 obp in last 11 games, maybe he is a 2 hole hitter after all

  2. BP with a GIDP and a K in big situations. Votto’s BB’s don’t look so bad now do they? :) I kid. A little. Great inning. Way to get back to old time in beating the Brewer ‘pen.

  3. Was away earlier, didn’t get to post my obligatory: I loathe Carlos Gomez comment. Done and done. Good job Reds. Let’s get ‘em all.

    • Solid start, Ace material if he can deliver starts like that, no homers for Homer few walks, needed an innings eater and he delivered for the most part

      • That was not an “ace” start but a very solid “good” start. To see an “ace” start, go have a look at any of Cueto’s. This is where the unrealistic expectations for Homer start.

  4. Broxton threw more warm-up pitches than what he threw in the 9th, thank Brew crew he should be fresh for the weekend

  5. Echoing what I posted earlier, if you are willing to sac your 3 hole hitter in the 7th, you need a new one… time to make a change

  6. W-L is the greatest stat ever… Cueto with 47 IP, 1.15 ERA: 2-2… Bailey with 34.1 IP, 5.50 ERA: 2-2.

    • I do not care what any body says, show me a pitcher with over 15 wins and less than 10 losses over multiple seasons who is not very good…
      wins indicate something

        • Can we get back to this in October?

          Records since 2010:
          Cueto 12-7, 9-5, 19-9, 5-2
          Bailey: 4-3, 9-7, 13-10, 11-12

          Those seem about right as far as their individual abilities.

      • I agree. I like the advanced stats and they are helpful but when Homer has an xFIP of ~ 3.10 and question a tick below 3.00, there is a problem there. To me Advanced Stats are what accounting is to making money,- they count it but they have nothing to do with making it.

        • question = Cueto. Don’t know where I got that. Apologize for any confusion.

        • The only problem with your analogy is that xFIP has been shown by research (like real studies with data etc.) to be a better predictor of future ERA than past ERA. Homer’s low xFIP comes from all the strikeouts, few walks and normalizing home runs. ERA is a purely backward looking stat – how many runs did the pitcher give up. But if you want to know how the guy is pitching to predict how he’ll pitch in the future, the non-run-based numbers (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) are most accurate. I have issues with xFIP for certain pitchers because over time I think they do give up more home runs than average based on their fly ball rate. Mike Leake, for me, was in that category for a few years. But that’s only in comparison to FIP, not ERA.

        • I guess, but I have a real problem when xFIP has Cueto and Bailey where they are at in relation to each other. If I was a conspiracy junkie, I would suspect xFIP was developed by Homer’s agent. At least with this example, I bet I can predict with decent accuracy that Homer will be at 3.25 to 3.50 and Johnny 2.35 to 2.70, actual ERAs. Advanced stats are the accounting in the money making process.

        • ERA is the old guy at your office who swears based on anecdotes that he knows best, even though the data doesn’t support it. FIP/xFIP/SIERA are the sharp new employees armed with studies showing concretely what works to make your business more profitable in the future. :-)

        • Yep but I’m the old fart those young upstarts work for. So there’s that. Maybe their smarter but I’d like to think I’m wiser or I would be working for them.

        • I guess but when I look at ERAs of 2013 pitchers their records corresponded pretty well with their ERAs with the top producers. Regardless of the team:
          Fernandez 12-6, 2.19, Miami
          Harvey 9-5, 2.27, Mets
          Iwakuma 14-6, 2.66, Mariners
          Bumgarner 13-9, 2.77, Giants
          Lee 14-8, 2.87, Phillies

          There are a couple of exceptions: Sale & T., Wood but on the whole it’s pretty consistent: if you have a low ERA, you have a winning record.

          My pitching stats are ERA and WHIP. All others have relevancy but in general those two tell me the story.

        • Charlotte, we are drawing lines again – why does it seem we are always on the same side – unless as stated earlier great minds think an awful lot alike

        • We do. The Saber guys bring a lot but I find sometimes the number crunching has warped their instincts and practical sense. Woods from the trees kind of thing. Again, the example today is Cueto and Homer. I’ll take Cueto with the Reds lineup, Steve can have Homer with the same and I will beat him 8 of 10 times. Cueto is just a far superior pitcher.

          Another example is your guy, Trout, versus JV. JV is very good player but he is not in the same class as Trout. I would take Mike Trout over any other player in MLB and it is for a variety of reasons. Votto may have him on OBP but without looking, I would guess that Trout has him on every other “major” stat. This doesn’t even include general base running (sans steals) and fielding. I don’t need to read statistics to know this, I watch both play.

        • Uhhh…I got news for you. Trout is widely considered as having two of the greatest seasons of all time by sabers. In fact, sabers were pushing for him to win the MVP over Cabrera, despite Cabrera winning the Triple Crown.

        • See and I didn’t even have to look that up. Sabermetrics may reinforce my opinions, they will not form them. Back to the Cueto/Bailey example.

        • Maybe, but people like you, people that rely on the baseball card stats, are the reason Trout didn’t win the MVP despite putting up one of the greatest seasons in MLB history.

        • As far as MVP, there really should be two awards: Best Player and Most Valuable Player. I can’t form a reasoned argument for Cabrera not getting the MVP because he was on a playoff team and Trout was on…..well the Angels. As I said, Trout is my first pick in the ultimate baseball draft. I don’t have a close second.

          Unfortunately, JV is dropping rapidly – certainly out of the top 10. No base running speed and a crappy fielder. On top of it, he takes a complete snooze every now and then. Still love him but those are my thoughts.

    • And Jay Bruce, how about him – .206 BA zero HR 4 RBI last 10 games. That will win you a lot of games – especially coming out of your 4 hole hitter.

  7. Leave Cozart right where he is – he is fine – already experienced him near the top if the order – don’t need to go there again

  8. Brandon Phillips’ night: A meaningless single with two outs and the bases empty. A groundout. An inning ending GIDP with Heisey at third. A sacrifice bunt from the 3 hole because Price has such confidence in his bat. And a strike out with runners on 2nd and 3rd and one out. Let’s stop the move Billy to the 9th slot, and focus on getting Phillips out of the 3rd spot in the order. Please.

    • Not a big fan of Dat Dude but a single is never meaningless. The Brewers had a two out single that led to two runs.

      • I understand your point, but you’re missing the forest for the trees. First of all that single was meaningless since it did not lead to runs in the first (unless you want to get into a butterfly effect about more pitches, turning the lineup over, etc.) Second, ignore the situations if you like and just assess his stratomatic line – single, groundout, GIDP, bunt out, strikeout. Not a good night for any major league hitter, let alone one who hits third in the lineup.

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