2014 Reds / Game Thread

Reds at Cards (April 8, 2014)

Another game with the Cardinals.  Another game against the “neck-tattoo”.  I can not stand the Cardinals.  Losing to St. Louis may be worse than anything right now.  Please Reds, beat St. Louis tonight!

Please Homer Bailey, you’re our only hope! Here’s the lineup:

1. Billy Hamilton (S) CF
2. Brandon Phillips (R) 2B
3. Joey Votto (L) 1B
4. Jay Bruce (L) RF
5. Ryan Ludwick (R) LF
6. Todd Frazier (R) 3B
7. Zack Cozart (R) SS
8. Devin Mesoraco (R) C
9. Homer Bailey (R) P

 

381 thoughts on “Reds at Cards (April 8, 2014)

  1. cards pitcher Choate.. that’s how the relief pitching is done… Reds on the other hand, have no one … had Bell… Ond****k… partch…. what a combo. Tuning off for today. tired. watching Reds game recently is a pain

  2. I understand that Ondrusek had a bit of bad luck, but it is just tiring to see these B-list releivers get into and then try to work out of trouble. Price was supposed to be DIFFERENT with his approach to the bullpen, but he has been far too similar to Dusty. It is important to beat a division rival, and I just haven’t seen Price manage with that kind of urgency.

    • Agree, but he’s working with a half of a major league bullpen. Every team clearly has injuries they have to work around, but four of the best six arms in bullpen are either on the DL (chapman, broxton, marshall) or reassigned due to other injuries (simon). broxton is back tonight, but it’s as if he isn’t there practically speaking. Hard to judge price when he only has a AAA bullpen at his disposal.

      In related news: JJ looks like he belongs in AAA

      • Agree. If Latos is back perhaps that is Simon pitching in the 6th or if Chap,an were healthy it might have been LeCure.

  3. Did the work on it for you Steve…

    Even if the Reds win tonight, they will be 4-9 when Bailey gives up 4 or more runs. That’s roughly a .307 W%. How does that not take your team out of it?

    In the starts Homer Bailey allowed 4 or more runs, he averaged 5.1 innings pitched. So lets just say 4 allowed runs. We don’t even focus on the “or more” part of it. The Reds bullpen last year was 4th in the NL with a 3.29 ERA, or .365 earned runs allowed per inning pitched. The Reds averaged 4.29 runs per game last season offensively (3rd in NL).

    If a pitcher allows 4 runs in 5.1 innings, that means now the bullpen has to cover 3.2 innings of work. With the 4th best bullpen in the NL, that’s 1.34 or so runs allowed by the bullpen in 3.2 innings.

    5.34 versus an average of 4.29 offensive runs scored.

    You’re not giving your team a good chance of winning at all. That’s based off of just four runs, not the “or more” part, and using the 3rd best scoring offense and 4th best bullpen in the NL. Not even using the NL averages which I am sure would make that look much worse.

    • Some pitchers when they give up a run in the inning bear down and increase their intensity and prevent the crooked number. Others lose some composure and that leads to big numbers for the other team. The thing with Homer I have seen is that, like Lance Lynn was mentioned earlier…if Homer starts out well, he is lights out…score early on him and he’ll give up 4-6 runs before being pulled in the 5th

    • The majority of those games are 4 runs, not “or more” and the Reds score more than four runs per game, even with the hitting they had last year. You’ve changed your claim now to say 4 runs “not giving your team a good chance of winning at all” instead of “taking your team out of it” which you said before and I said was an overstatement. Some of Homer’s 4 run games are when he was allowed to stay in games later, unlike other pitchers like Leake or Cingrani. Your own stats show that in those games the team isn’t “taken out of it” since they won four of them.

      I don’t know what Homer Bailey ever did to you, but you’ve been a consistent and one-sided critic of his for years here. You said he got hurt all the time until he didn’t. You said he couldn’t strike people out, until he did. You said he wasn’t mentally tough, and that’s ridiculous, too. Your latest thing is this “gives up four runs” argument, which you beat to death last year.

      Homer’s stats are what they are. He was a top 25 pitcher in the major leagues (not just the NL, in all the majors) in a bunch of statistics that are better indications of how he actually pitched than the number of runs that scored.

      • Won four of them was assuming they won today because you said it was looking likely.. now they’re behind 7-5. That’d put them at 3-10 when he allows 4 or more runs, or a .230 W%.

        As for Leake, yes, his outings when he allows 4 or more runs have been shorter than Bailey, by .1 innings on average. 5.1 innings vs 5.0 innings is hardly enough for the extra runs to be explained away by going deeper into games than others.

        I have been just as overly negative as you have been overly positive of Bailey. He was a top 25 pitcher in the major leagues in stats that don’t always work. If it the stats think so lowly of Cueto and Arroyo despite them both being very good pitchers, then it stands to reason it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Bailey can be overvalued by those stats despite him not being nearly as good as they say.

        This is a baseball site, where people discuss opinions. My opinion is he’s not very good. I am even using stats to back up my argument so it’s not like I am just being contrary for the sake of it. If someone tells me he’s a Top 25 pitcher, and a borderline ace, then I am going to tell them I don’t buy it.

        He has improved over the last few years, but when it all comes down to it, he allows more big games than anyone else on the pitching staff. I think in an effort to go even deeper with the numbers in sabermetrics, people sometimes push away a perfectly good one because it’s too simple. You say FIP and xFIP and such are better indications of how he actually pitched, but I think ERA is still a very solid stat. Baseball is all about scoring runs. If you allow more, you lose. People who allow less are better Homer Bailey has a lot of games where he allows a lot. Sometimes it’s just that simple.

      • Need to look any further for the ERA point? Cueto has 2 starts, 14 innings, 8 hits, 3 earned runs, 4 walks, 17 strikeouts…. now which is a better representation of his season thus far?

        ERA: 1.93
        FIP: 3.41

        Fancier/more complex calculations aren’t always better.

  4. Is it possible Price was in control of the bullpen management all along? You can make a strong argument LeCure is our best pitcher down in the ‘pen, and he’s thrown 1 inning all season. 1.

      • Dusty always said that Price was his pitching coordinator just like an offensive or defensive coordinator in football; so it would figure he chose the next man up and Dusty decided when the time was to make the change.

  5. Reds bullpen is just awful. I realize a bunch of guys are hurt.
    Wasn’t JJ Hover supposed to be the closer of the future?
    How in the world do you throw Molina a cookie up 0-2?

  6. I’m done. Effing hate the Cardinals. Buckle up, boys and girls… gonna be a LLLLOOONNNGGG season.

  7. Can we just fast forward through April and see where things are? Bailey – BAD. Bullpen – ATROCIOUS. Manager? Puzzling. And Latos has elbow irritation. This is no fun at all right now.

  8. If we can’t come back, this will be the hardest lost of all. Finally come out of the gate guns blazing and then just lay a big old egg.

  9. Well, no blame to bullpen. All bullpen money had paid to Bailey’s balloon contract, brining Reds blowing away 4-run lead right after 1 inning, and now securing Cardinals W in the last 3 innings.

    • Look Homer is the Reds #4 possibly #5 starter, he will have games like this. Yeah, he is good but is overrated by a lot of people. He did hang tough and the pen, for the most part, just can’t help much right now. Price isn’t exactly putting on a clinic either. Things will look up soon enough.

      • Charlotte, I sure hope so – or else its going to be a very, very long season. Price to this point looks lost.

  10. Face it folks . St. Louis is just a superior organization from top to bottom. And the Reds aren’t catching up anytime soon.

  11. That inning could have been a whole lot worse. Let’s see if we have some runs still in those bats. Someone wake up Jobu.

  12. On the subject of Jobu, I read today this is the 25th anniversary of Major League. I am feeling very old.

  13. Until I remembered the Reds were on FoxSports1 tonight, I was concerned about whether my provider (DISH) had the alternate FoxOhio channels set up so I could see the BlueJackets tonight. Then I wondered, what??? I prefer any hockey game over the Reds?????

    What I’ve seen since the end of the hockey game (CBJ win in OT) has reminded me why I was more interested in the CBJ than the Reds.

  14. First of all, I despise the Cards. From the LaRussa years et. al. Here’s the main reason the Cards own us. The Brawl from a few years back. We used to have a swag and an open distaste for the Cards. We were starting to own them! Even Votto was giving out the hate with Phillips on Twitter. Then, Molina(with a little coaxing from LaRussa) dusts it up with Phillips knowing he love taps his shin guards. After the brawl, the Reds withdrew. They backed down. They cowered. Now, the Reds give way too much respect to the Cards. It’s not really a rivalry in a sense because the Cards have the swag now. All those shots of the Cards pitching staff with cocky Wainwright leading the way during the game tonight just pisses me off!!! Cards are more concerned with the Pirates now. It’s pretty sickening…

  15. Maybe the game will be rained out tomorrow so they can get out of St. Louis and avoid the broom – Not very impressed with Price thus far – bullpen has been a disaster

  16. At least Cardinal Nation had to suffer through Thom’s ramblings tonight. That’s some payback.

    • Your absolutely right, tomorrow is a new day. And if I’m not mistaken, there’s still a few games left in the 2014 season. And yes, I for one will be here rooting for my Redlegs. Go Reds!

    • Charlotte, don’t know about you but I have been there for the Reds for nearly 50 years (I have fond memories of the Reds well before 1967 (Jim O’Toole, Jim Maloney, Vada Pinson, Alex Johnson etc. come to mind) but for whatever reason I pick 1967 as the year I became enthralled with the Reds – maybe because I got Pete’s autograph at Crosley Field that year – and have been in the saddle ever since. But this version of the Reds is a mess – they will come to regret not hiring a bolder manager. They needed a little fire – and they didn’t get it. My man continues to be ex-Red Clint Hurdle – and the Reds could have hired a clone in David Bell. So where is Bell now everyone may be asking? With these Saint Louis Cardinals after being in the Reds farm system last year. Good grief, stop the bleeding now ….

  17. We can only hope that the Reds lumber has awoken from its slumber. Leake is pitching tomorrow, the Reds lumber had better have awoken from its slumber or they’re going to get swept like they were swept up by a pooper scooper. C’mon Redlegs lets get em tomorrow. Go Reds! Adios Amigos.

  18. No fight. No leadership. Bullpen in shambles. Manager looks like he’s in over his head. I’m afraid that this team as currently assembled has little or no chance of winning this year.

    • Been saying so ever since the season began. Reds needed an enforcer for a manager – instead they picked Mr. Lillywhite. Bad, bad move – one they will surely come to regret. As Marty likes to say it’s going, going …. gone. But this time, we are not talking about a HR but the Red’s season. Can the Red’s renig on Homer’s contract? Sorry Steve, but your man blows.

      • So is it worse to have given up 4 runs first or to have allowed 4 runs after the other guy had done the same.

        And in the end Homer held serve except for the one inning while the Lynn eventually gave up what could have been the deciding run.

        So essentially, this game was decided by the pens. The Cards gave up zilch, The Reds 3.

        • After being given a 4-0 lead, you would think a $100M pitcher would just settle in and dominate. Homer – forget it. Bad, bad move, one that will haunt the Reds for years to come. 2014 will be a 3 team race in the NL Central – Cards,, Pirates and wait for it – the Brewers. Reds will be sadly left in the dust.

        • Must have missed it. Did the Cards starting pitcher just sign a $100M contract?

    • Can a manager be sent down for a couple of weeks to clear his head and get his bearings? Just kidding, I think.

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