2013 Reds / Joey Votto is Perfect

Something to Think About

Joey Votto has reached base 316 times this year.

According to Fangraphs, there have been 16,288 major league players since 1871.

22 of them have had at least one season where they reached base more than Joey Votto has this year.

Twenty-two.

This season, Joey Votto reached base more than the best seasons of 99.86% of every other player ever in major league history.

I will acknowledge that Votto wasn’t as good as he has been this year. And this is still what he did.

I still believe we will all be telling our grandchildren we saw him play.

71 thoughts on “Something to Think About

  1. Excellent point, an enigma. His strikeouts seem more painful this year though just slightly above his average. His defense was definitely more painful. Still, something isn’t right.

  2. That was my big take away from today, Joey Votto’s record breaking season. Not that the Reds’ “All-In” season ended with a third place finish, with some of the most uninspired baseball most Reds fans have ever seen. Maybe this accomplishment is a big deal (and the fact is any time you do something that has never been done in the game of baseball it IS a big deal), but it doesn’t feel like it today.

    • @GolfGuy75: You mean the season where they lost their Opening Day left fielder, starting pitcher, and catcher, and their best setup guy for a majority of the season and still made the playoffs?

      • @GolfGuy75: You mean the season where they lost their Opening Day left fielder, starting pitcher, and catcher, and their best setup guy for a majority of the season and still made the playoffs?

        They were the only team with injuries? They lost Votto last year for a long, long time and found a way to win 97 games.
        Forgive me if I am not willing to say that a full season for Ludwick would have been the answer to all the Reds’ problems. Cingrani was stellar in replacing Cueto, far, far better than anyone could have expected.
        The bullpen, I will agree with you, but again, injuries are part of the game.

        • @GolfGuy75: Reds didn’t get to play nearly as many games against the Astros this year.

          Injuries are part of the game. But if I told you in April that Cueto and Marshall would make a combined 26 appearances, you would not have expected this team to be anywhere near contention.

        • @vanwilder8: Nobody in the NL-C had many games against the Astros this year. The scale is constant on that. I think the loss of Broxton and Marshall did impact the bullpen down the stretch — more than we currently realize. But as pointed out, all pitching staffs in the NL-C took a hit. Milwaukee the hardest.

        • @GolfGuy75: They are, but there are injuries and there are injuries, and the fact that most teams suffer doesn’t mean that they lack impact. One thing smaller market teams usually have to cut corners on is bench strength. Add to that the depletion of the upper level minor league talent by the Latos trade, and you have a team more vulnerable to injuries than many.

  3. I’d be more interested in the number of times on base per game, many of those players played during shorter seasons.

    • @ManhattanProject: That’s really a bit of hair splitting, isn’t it? Basically, you’re looking at 1.9 or 2.0 times on base per game. Going from 154 to 162 games isn’t going to change it that much. Might move Votto down a few spots. But then, the competition is a lot stiffer now that they let everybody play. I think it probably balances out in the long run.

    • I’d be more interested in the number of times on base per game, many of those players played during shorter seasons.

      Get a calculator.

  4. That is a very impressive feat. In the last discussion on Votto, someone posted the percentage of his hits that were singles, doubles, etc. His singles percentage was up to around 67% of his hits. I think the disappointment some have in him this year comes from his drop in extra base hits and probably the corresponding lower RBI total. Hearing that he has not been at full strength sure brings hope for another great year from Votto next season.

  5. Ooooooooof. Yes Joey Votto had had the greatest season in the history of the great sport of baseball. Anyone who disagrees is an ignorant heretic who doesn’t understand simple math. The end. Is it April yet?

    • @eric nyc: I think you are missing the point. Everyone (the editors of this site included, I think) agrees Votto has had an “off year” by his lofty standards.

      To have an “off” year and accomplish what is written in this post is special. I don’t know why you feel the need to disparage that. He’s not the player YOU want him to be, that’s obvious. Frankly, I don’t care. You can continue to bash him and he’ll continue to contribute to winning Reds’ baseball.

      Your silly example of a statue for ball 4 is interesting. Who leads the team in hits? Who leads the team in slugging? Walks are just gravy.

  6. Seriously though, if the Reds never win a ring with Votto do you really think I’ll tell my grandkids about some guy’s amazing OBP? I completely understand how valuable that can be to a team but do you think someday 30 years from now there will be a statue outside of Bob Castellini Jr. Ballpark that immortalizes Joey Votto taking that crucial ball 4?

    • @eric nyc: I can say this… no player in Reds history had a more mediocre career than Joe Nuxhall … but his contributions are measured in different ways. Not that this has anything to do with Votto, but it’s funny how time changes our perspective on people who are entrusted with being role models.

      • @Johnu1: Joe Nuxhall mediocre? Here’s how he ranks on the REDS all-time records list:

        1) Youngest player to ever appear in an MLB game
        2) 8th for REDS for most games started
        3) 9th for REDS for most career wins
        4) 6th for REDS for most career innings pitched
        5) 3rd for REDS for most career strikeouts
        6) 21st for REDS for most career complete games
        7) 10th for REDS for most career shut-outs

        I only wish I had had such a mediocre MLB career!

  7. I love me some Joey Votto. This is a player who recognizes his limitations and adjusts. He just might be the best hitter of his generation. I hope the knee is right next season.

    I have no explanation for his bad fielding and foolish baserunning this year, except that he is human.

    If the Reds get a true cleanup hitter, look out.

    • @666wolverine: awesome… so what does that have to do w/ much of anything?

      he’s a good player.. prob a top 20 player in NL… did not have the best of year… just hope it is not a sign to come.. he’s too young for decline… next year, we’ll see if this year’s an aberration or a norm.

      CHOO has also over 300 on base this year… not too shabby, and he’s a fighter… getting hit by two dozen pitches, steals some bases, runs hard on any hits (unlike our BP who just gives up), and despite playing CF for the first time, has filled in admirably.

      Bruce is Bruce… timely home runs and hits, and really gold glove like fielding this year..

      These 2 are my MVPs this year.. Votto is votto w/ his OBP, but quite frankly as a baseball fan (don’t care for stats all that much… at least not as much as Votto does), but he had a “good” to better than good year for baseball standard, and “average” year to less than average for Votto standard.

      Problem I have is Dusty #1 #2 #3… then the lack of leadership, accountability, fundamental play, etc… all this though ties back into manager of the team

      Dusty is an aweful manager

  8. Votto has had an awesome season, it’s just a different kind of awesome than you are used to when judging by eyeball tests and RBI.

    Basically, if RBI or BaRISP are anywhere in your criteria for judging a player’s season, you’re on the wrong side of mathematics. It’s ok to believe that if you want, just like it’s ok to believe that the earth is flat or that diseases are spread through beams from people’s eyes, but you’re not going to be taken seriously by those who have accepted modern advances.

    • @Jason1972: I believe that this is true of the team as a whole, actually. The Reds are 1st in the NL in walks, and 2nd in OBP. In fact, the Reds have 50 more walks than the Braves, who are #2 in that category. This has allowed them to be 3rd in runs scored while only ranking 7th in HR, being 8th in doubles, and having the 5th most strike outs. The Reds offense is not eyeball-friendly, but they have been productive thanks to their ability to walk.

      • @BenL: One more quick point about eyeballing the Reds offense(with credit to sometimes-RN-poster AndyS, who pointed this out to me a month or two ago): Scoring is down around the league, so to our eyes it seems like the Reds offense is worse than past years, but relative to the competition, they are not much worse. If the Reds score 4 runs today, they will be at 700 runs even on the year, and likely will still be ranked 3rd in the NL. In 2010 700 runs would have had them ranked 9th in the NL, not third. What would have been a middle of the road offensive showing three years ago now puts us near the top of the NL.

      • @BenL: The Nation has taught me to be less trusting of what my eyes tell me, and I appreciate that. But I need to point out that there may be a disconnect, since in spite of gaudy metrics, the Reds are barely alive for the post-season. This doesn’t discount the validity of metrics, but does suggest to me that they are, as a method for evaluating baseball, a work in progress.

        • @greenmtred: I see what you are saying, but the Central is a really tough division this year. There are three teams over 90 wins. It’s easy to argue that in a different year or division this team would have several more wins and a much easier path to the postseason.

    • Given the numbers, shouldn’t Votto be our leadoff hitter next year and for the foreseeable future?

      This is my thinking. I wouldn’t want him leading off, but all his best stats say he’s a phenomenal #2 hitter. But, he’s Votto, so nope.

      • @tpteach: Well, yes, I agree, but we shouldn’t assume that past (this season) is prologue. He seems to have indicated that he’s not fully healthy this year, so if he were to return to full health next year, he’d be a remarkable #3 hitter again.

      • @tpteach: Actually, there is a lot of lineup analysis that has been ongoing lately that suggests that the best hitter on the team should bat 2nd. So, even in Sabermetric circles, there are a lot of folks out there who would agree that Votto should hit 2nd. I’m more old-school in that I still feel your best hitter should hit 3rd, but as the studies continue, I could be convinced that 2nd is the right place.

    • @dn4192: You’re question assumes that there is actually a prototypical “leadoff” hitter.

      The truth is that Joey Votto is the Reds ideal #1 hitter. He’s also the ideal #2 hitter, #3 hitter, #4 hitter, and so on. Joey will be Joey regardless of where he’s hitting.

      In 2014, the Reds have to bring in some new talent, unless they just want to pray that BP & Ludwick have bounce back seasons & Hamilton can somehow fill Choo’s shoes, which is highly unlikely.

      • @CP: It seems to be received wisdom that BP is having a poor year, and I suppose that in some ways he is. He probably never is much of an OBP guy, and his average has dipped as well. He HAS driven in a lot of runs, though, and I’ll revisit the ongoing discussion: I know that RBI as a stat is highly dependent upon the performance of one’s teammates. But to drive in runs, you need both runners on base and, usually, hits with runners on base. For portions of the year BP was pretty much the only guy doing that with any regularity, and his BA with RISP (another discredited stat, but how do you account for it?)showed it. I wonder whether he, like Joey, is dealing with lingering effects of his injury. Finally, I’m really hard put to think of any stat which proves much in isolation; OBP means little if nobody on your team can drive you in.

  9. I think another long thread about the passion we have for Votto’s statistics defies the reality that, if I am watching a game, please do not turn to me and spout out his “statistics” and tell me I ought to adore him because he’s in the top 10 of anything.

    If you keep leaning on this and demanding that people approve, it’s easy to see that casual fans are turned off by it. NOT VERY MANY fans care much about sabrmetrics. Many newer fans find the science fascinating ( I find it tedious, probably informative if I don’t get a headache trying to remember what the initials mean ) but to continue to shove it down their throats and ridicule people who still understand BA, RBI, and ERA, strikes me as somewhat over-the-top brow-beating. OPS is two numbers added together.

    This thread is a continuation of the last 10, all saying the same thing — all intended to promote some sort of hero worship that is barely justified. Team stats is about the Reds, not about one Don Quijote image who is bearing the burden alone.

    What’s worse about that is I find that the Reds are in the top 3 in runs scored. It’s that “entire body of work” that we are so fond of leaning on — and it’s no different from the advance metrics on Joey Votto. A slump is a slump is a slump.

    If you haven’t said enough about how wonderful Joey Votto is, when do you get to the real point of this?

    • I think another long thread about the passion we have for Votto’s statistics defies the reality that, if I am watching a game, please do not turn to me and spout out his “statistics” and tell me I ought to adore him because he’s in the top 10 of anything.

      If you keep leaning on this and demanding that people approve, it’s easy to see that casual fans are turned off by it. NOT VERY MANY fans care much about sabrmetrics. Many newer fans find the science fascinating ( I find it tedious, probably informative if I don’t get a headache trying to remember what the initials mean ) but to continue to shove it down their throats and ridicule people who still understand BA, RBI, and ERA, strikes me as somewhat over-the-top brow-beating. OPS is two numbers added together.

      This thread is a continuation of the last 10, all saying the same thing — all intended to promote some sort of hero worship that is barely justified. Team stats is about the Reds, not about one Don Quijote image who is bearing the burden alone.

      What’s worse about that is I find that the Reds are in the top 3 in runs scored. It’s that “entire body of work” that we are so fond of leaning on — and it’s no different from the advance metrics on Joey Votto. A slump is a slump is a slump.

      If you haven’t said enough about how wonderful Joey Votto is, when do you get to the real point of this?

      If you don’t want to be brow-beaten by all the fancy book learnin’ then don’t continue to tell us the Earth is flat cause your eyes don’t lie. It’s pretty simple to suggest that everyone just smile and accept the outdated notions that are being used to justify incorrect conclusions.

      • If you don’t want to be brow-beaten by all the fancy book learnin’ then don’t continue to tell us the Earth is flat cause your eyes don’t lie.It’s pretty simple, really, and rather cowardly to suggest that everyone just smile and accept the outdated notions that are being used to justify incorrect conclusions.

        Facts… They are stubborn things.

        • @Kurt Frost: Stubborn and sometimes not clearly identifiable. I repeat that, based on metrics, it would seem that the team should be playing better. And if Dusty is so bad, wouldn’t that be reflected in the metrics (if they are the only valid way to evaluate a team or player)?

      • @Jason1972: Here’s what you are doing. You are propping up a fever and pretending that nobody in entirled to have an opinion about it.

        When they offer one and it doesn’t meet your expectations, you ridicule them for being “flat earth” or “luddites.” Frankly, the notion that you think people who don’t sit around analyzing data are somehow like cavemen — not sure but I think that’s rather self-absorbed arrogance.

        Almost nobody disagrees with the data — but the idea that people can introduce the “eyeball test” and be dismissed as ignorant or backward — that’s just wrong.

        The premise has been stated over and over and over again and anybody who decides to have an opinion is ridiculed. Nobody has ONCE dismissed the facts here. But the idea that somebody can have a “feeling” about a baseball game is being mocked off the board. If you don’t want alternate opinions, just boot people who don’t agree with you and you will have an ice day.

        And I won’t mock you for having one.

        • @Johnu1: I was at the game Friday night and had a feeling that Marlon Byrd was going to hit a homerun. Instead it was a double that looked like a homerun off the bat.

          I wish I had a feeling about Tuesday’s game.

    • @Johnu1: If you don’t like the sabermetric tendencies of our posts, you have the option of reading other materials. Why would you come to a site to complain about what they write? No one is forcing you to read the posts, let alone “demanding that you approve” or “shove it down your throat.” How can it be “brow beating” when you voluntarily choose to come here and read it? Nice dramatics, though. While I’m amused by people who decry the advance of science, what you term “science” is really just different statistical categories than you’re used to, not something qualitatively different. You seem to be valorizing team statistics (although I’m not really sure what you’re saying), yet fail to realize that the main contributor those runs is the high OBP of Choo and Votto.

      Please don’t waste the comment space complaining about the topics we choose to post about. Thanks.

      • @Steve Mancuso: The topics generally are fine but I think it’s also fair that when there are diverse opinions offered, that contributors aren’t summarily dismissed as “flat earth.”

        • @Johnu1: I did want to add that I have no reason to disagree with advance metrics. I have never been a big “RBI” or “RISP” fan. If the implication is that I am from some “old school” point of view, that was missed.

        • @Johnu1: I get where you’re coming from, but the problem with this line of thinking is that it introduces a kind of relativism where every opinion is equally valid. They aren’t.

          A long time ago, people believed that cranial size corresponded with intelligence. It doesn’t. We’ve known that for ages, but by your reasoning, if I want to take the “old school” view that it is, then my opinion should be taken seriously.

          Some of us can be dismissive about “old school” guys at times. That’s because we’ve had this argument a million times and it goes like this:

          Us: We think this. Here is a mountain range of evidence to support it.

          Old School: We disagree. We don’t like your evidence.

          Us: Do you have evidence for your view?

          Old School: You are a math nerd.

          Can you have a feeling about a game? Sure. Should I feel compelled, in the face of mountains of evidence to believe that your feeling necessarily represents how things are? No.

          Also, the question needs to be asked how much feelings are driven by past narratives. I suspect that is getting on base were regarded as more important than RBI (the evidence suggests it is), then the feeling would be different every time Votto walks.

          I could be wrong, but most of us are susceptible to “how it’s always been” syndrome. Just because something has been one way for a long times, that doesn’t mean it’s the best way. Sometimes humanity is dumb for a long time.

        • @Jason Linden: I think this horse is in the barn but I will just say that, and this is not to be construed as being in either “camp” on sabrmetrics. I happen to not disagree with them and that seems to be where the rub has been. I’ve been cast into that “old school eyeball test” group. All I contend is that people who don’t fall over in defense of the data aren’t always just “stupid.”

          Compare this to visiting an art gallery. You see a painting you like. You don’t go asking how the artist evolved the paint components or the medium or the humidity or how did he manage to mix two separate forms of paint — you just like the painting. You might NOT like the painting but it’s interesting.

          Some folks who watch baseball don’t care about these advanced metrics — the want to see the base hit, the long ball, the thrilling play. They aren’t rolling over on this and saying, after our star hitter goes down on strikes — well, that’s OK, he’s leading the league in RTxF2 …

          I don’t attack people who are “math nerds.” I was an English “nerd” and I hate bad grammar. I abide it because not everybody likes to write.

          To me, the ongoing assault on the “old school is old-fashioned” is just not fair. Some people just like to see a ballgame for what it’s worth, not because it produces a massive amount of statistics. I probably owned, at one time, more baseball reference books than my library … still appreciate a grand 5-6-3.

          I am a casual baseball fan. It’s not fair to accuse me and others like me of having dinosaur attitudes just because I want Votto to get a base hit, not lean on a body of work that suggests his chances of reaching base are .410. I want him to be on base every time. When he’s not, I don’t go hiding behind the data. I am disappointed.
          No harm is being done here other than the attempt to downscope people who just like the painting, not the story on how it was painted.

        • @Jason Linden: I don’t know Jason. I don’t really think you can have one and not the other to tell you everything there is to know about a player. For example, my fairly trained eyes told me, watching Votto the whole year, that he seemed to look uncomfortable at the plate more than I’d ever seen him. He had more bad/defensive swings than I ever recall him having. He also seemed to just miss some good pitches to hit, pitches that he hit hard in the past.

          Did he still have a very, very good year? Yep. The metrics and my eyes also tell me that he’s still easily one of the top 3 or 4 hitters in the NL. One can’t ignore the fact that his OBP and his SLG were both very good. His K% wasn’t much higher than before. Maybe with a little more luck on his side, his RBI total would have been solidly in the 80s and that’s taking into account who was hitting in front of him.

          I’m happy Votto is on our team. I don’t feel he is overpaid. I don’t feel he should have had 100+ RBI this year. I don’t feel he underperformed. I do feel that he didn’t have his best year based on those uncomfortable ABs and those pitches that he just missed.

    • @Johnu1: This.

      I became a baseball fan in the RBI, BA, RISP, ERA time and those are the stats I understand. I’m not saying sabremetrics are incorrect. I guess in some people’s opinion I’m a flat earther. Whatever.

      Joey Votto is an excellent ballplayer. I’m glad he’ll be a Red for the rest of his career. My eyeballs tell me that.

  10. I only hope the Reds organization doesn’t fall into the trap of blaming this year’s injuries for the year’s dissapointing season. I’m guessing they will since there is little they can do to improve the team with a minor league system that is bare and a payroll that is hamstrung by Votto’s contract. I’m guessing we’ll hear ownership blame the injuries and talk about how the team will be better next year with everyone healthy and then do nothing to improve the team. It has been obvious since 2010 that this team needs a big bat in the middle of the line-up (and Votto is not that guy) and yet nothing has been done to address that need. Then again at the trade deadline this year, when the Pirates reloaded the Reds stood pat. (I understand they stood pat in part because they have nothing to trade and won’t spend the money)

    Marlon Byrd would have been a huge addition to the team. Far better than waiting for Ryan Ludwickl to return.

    The Cardinals have had more than their share of injuries and they had no problem going to their own farm system for help. The Reds did not come up short because of their injuries. They have no team speed. They have no big bat in the middle of the line-up. They have no organizational depth. They have an aging second baseman who is far mor concerned about himself than he is his team. They have a number of players who don’t seem capable of making adjustments at the plate. And finally they don’t have the ability or the desire to play with intensity and a sense of purpose when they need to. Look what the Indians are doing. What if the Reds had come off that sweep of the Dodgers and gone on a run like the Indians have done? Didn’t happen and won’t happen if changes aren’t made. Complacency? Maybe? To my way of thinking there is far too much of the “162 game” long grind, can’t get too worked up attitude on this team.

    Everyone is back and “healthy” now. How did the Reds perform with everyone back? The window is closing on this team.

    • @robby: Maybe the Reds stayed pat at the trade deadline because they need the money to resign Choo during the offseason. That’s what I’m telling myself anyway. Trying to stay positive because I really want Choo back.

  11. Marlon Byrd is a cheat. He got caught last year, and his stats this year suggest he’s gotten better…at hiding his cheating. I wouldn’t want him on my team.

    Dusty continues to play Ludwick even though he has better options, and he continues to play Hanigan even though he has a better option. That’s 25% of the bats, 40% of the RH bats. He justifies that choice based on Hanigan’s better defensive abilities and Ludwick’s veteran presence. Those things may exist, and whether they do or don’t the fact is Dusty has made a choice to prioritize those things over offense. The result is predictable–teams can pitch around our offensive threats, and pick on our weak spots. (Bruce not batting cleanup, even against RHP and even though it was working is another choice.). These choices are crippling us offensively; please don’t tell me “it’s up to the players!” Dusty’s job is to put his team in the best position to succeed, and voluntarily sacrificing that much offense isn’t getting the job done.

  12. Eric,

    Who is a better option than Ludwick on this roster? Heisey? Paul? Robinson? Hamilton? They don’t have a solid left fielder on the roster. Soriano was another option. Make a move. The point was the Pirates got better. The Reds stood pat with less than a good hand. Just as they did in 2010 and 2012. Think Cliff Lee would have helped in 2010?

    Johnu1,

    I forgot!

    • @robby: Byrd is a cheater. I’m glad we didn’t get better that way.

      As for “who is better than Ludwick?” All the people you mention except for XP are a significant upgrade defensively. I’d start Heisey. I’d have bitten the bullet and done it two weeks ago when it became apparent Ludwick had zero power and zero chance it would come back this season, so Heisey could get used to playing again. Also, even if Dusty insists on playing Ludwick, he should A) put him down in the order; B) Recognize that his choice means we can’t afford to also play Hanigan. Managing is hard; with a limited Ludwick Dusty should ADJUST and realize he now has to weigh the offensive contribution from our Catcher differently than he would in a perfect world. Instead, Dusty decides to compromise the offensive contribution from both C and LF at the same time–which has a ripple effect on the rest of the batters since we have so few threats.

  13. Well, lets see if Votto, Bruce, or Choo get hurt today for a meaningless game made even less meaningful by Ludwick batting 2nd, Izturis starting, and Greg Reynolds getting a start.

    This is the Pirates we’re talking about, with the most HBP in the league… in a game that’s meaningless for them since they already got home field advantage for Tuesday. You think they’re not going to take the chance to plunk a player or two now that there’s absolutely nothing for them to lose from doing so? Settle up on all their “revenge” that they couldn’t dole out in games that mattered earlier in the season.

  14. And to the point of the original post. When you tell your grandchildren you saw Joey Votto play you know what they will say? They will say Joey who? Just like my kids say Joe who? now when I tell them I saw Joe Morgan play.

  15. Reds very inconsistent all year. Can’t hit when they really need to. Strike Out too many times. Even if they win at Pittsburgh on Tuesday Night, I cannot see them getting past the Braves, Cardinals, or Dodgers at all. Choo can’t hit left handers. Ludwick not all the way back from injury, Votto will get walked for teams to take their chances with the rest of the lineup. Phillips can’t do it all the time. Bruce is up and down…very very inconsistent. Frazier and Cozart won’t produce much of the time, and are pretty much dead outs…especially Cozart. Mesaraco is a batter bat than Hanigan, but Dusty will play Hanigan, who is not much of a bat this year. Cueto and Latos will lose 1-0 or 2-1 games. Bailey is also inconsistent, and Reds pitchers give up too many home runs in Great American Ballpark. Owner Bob C and Walt J should make changes…but probably will keep both Dusty B and Brooke J around another year, but should tell them both…improvement needed next year or both get fired after next year! Reds fans should not attend games, except once in a while for fun…until this organization serious about making changes for the better. Both the Cardinals and Pirates have gotten better, and will continue next year. Reds need to make changes in order to avoid being in 3rd place next year!

  16. After going down on the second pitch of the playoffs last year in S.F., I think Cueto will turn it around and the Reds will advance to the N.L. Division Series.

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