2013 Reds

Morning Briefing

Happy Labor Day!

Reminder that the game today vs. the Cardinals starts at 1:10 p.m. ET and is being broadcast on the MLB Network.

 Four weeks remain in the regular season. The next ten games are in the win-friendly confines of Great American Ball Park. The home stand includes four with the Cardinals, three with the Dodgers and three with the Cubs.

The Reds are 3.5 games behind both the Pirates and the Cardinals. In terms of the second wild card slot, the Arizona Diamondbacks are six games behind the Reds and the Washington Nationals trail the Reds by 6.5 games.

According to various projections, the Reds’ odds of winning the division range from 5.5% (FanGraphs) to 14.1% (Baseball Prospectus). The projection by Cool Standings falls in between, at 7%. Their estimates of the Reds qualifying for one of the two wild card slots and the wild-card play in coin flip are 82% (BP), 84% (CS) and 85% (FG). You would add those two numbers together to find the total percentage chance that the Reds will be playing at least one game after September 29.

The Reds are 15 games over .500. They were 14 games over .500 on June 1. Coincidentally, the 15-game margin comes from playing the two worst teams in the NL, the Cubs and Miami Marlins, against whom the Reds are exactly 15 games over .500. Against the rest of major league baseball they are exactly a .500 team.

• The Reds face Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller and Lance Lynn in the four-game series against the Cardinals. Wacha is the 22-year-old rookie who held the Reds scoreless for four innings after he replaced Wainwright in the Reds 10-0 win last week. The Reds have announced their starters as Mat Latos, Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo and Greg Reynolds. Tony Cingrani is eligible to come off the DL on September 5, the date of the final game of the Cardinals’ series.

Looking ahead to the Dodgers series, the Reds will likely face Zack Grienke, Clayton Kershaw and Ricky Nolasco. The Reds rotation would be Leake facing Grienke, Latos against Kershaw and Bailey vs Nolasco in Sunday night’s nationally televised game.

Billy Hamilton will be in the Reds’ dugout today, along with new call-ups infielder Neftali Soto and catcher Corky Miller. Yesterday, three players joined the Reds in Colorado: pitcher Curtis Partch, outfielder Derrick Robinson and second baseman Henry Rodriguez. Miller’s presence as a third catcher will allow Dusty Baker to use Devin Mesoraco and Ryan Hanigan more broadly in pinch-hitting roles. Partch pitched yesterday and gave up a home run and two other hits in 1.1 innings of work. Derrick Robinson made the final out of yesterday’s game.

32 thoughts on “Morning Briefing

  1. Is Bronson not pitching in either series? If Latos goes today, would he not go Saturday instead of Friday? I’m really confused.

  2. Wait, does that mean Cingrani probably won’t pitch, or is it a procedural thing to not list a guy on the DL as the probable pitcher?

    • @Eric the Red: Don’t know. But Reynolds is listed now instead of TBD. There’s been nothing published recently about Cingrani. Even though Reynolds pitched great against Colorado (and I wouldn’t mind seeing the Reds skip Leake and use Reynolds on Friday) I’d rather see Cingrani start against St. Louis.

      • @Steve Mancuso: I’d second that … Leake is struggling as a starter right now. He probably won’t be a post-season starter at this point, so give him a break and go with Reynolds and Cingrani if he’s available.

        • @msanmoore: I would go with Cingrani since St. Louis has struggled big time against LHers, which is why Chapman has to be part of the rotation next year. Imagine having two LHers to throw against St. Louis.

        • @Y-City Jim: Agree with all of this comment. With Cingrani, if he’s still hurt he’s still hurt. Just so long as Dusty isn’t thinking “Cingrani pitched great against the Dodgers last time, so I’m gonna save him.”

    • @Eric the Red: Maybe Marshall has experienced another “setback” and Cingrani is ticketed to finish the year in the pen????

      If Reynolds is going to pitch like he has the last two times, there would be worse things to have happen. Don’t see it as a “demotion” for Cingrani. See it as putting him where he can do the most to help the team win.

      • @OhioJim: As of yesterday, the word was positive on Marshall, who threw a bullpen session. Let’s hope it’s just a matter of waiting to see how Cingrani does in his last workout before re-activation. The Reds can’t afford to waste another elite power-arm left-handed pitcher rotting in the bullpen waiting for a match-up. The Reds just went an entire road trip without Aroldis Chapman pitching.

        • @Steve Mancuso: I’m not talking long term, as in after the end of the 2013 season.

          In the here and now they need somebody (besides Chapman) who throws hard and misses bats to bolster the pen.

      • @OhioJim: He can do the most for the team as a starter. If you need a strong matchup lefty in the bullpen, use Chapman and let someone else close. Cingrani should definitely start in the postseason ahead of Leake, and probably ahead of Arroyo. The one silver lining in Leake’s struggles is that I hope it forces Dusty to not use him as a starter. You know he wants to, and that he’d use the bullpen argument and the “veteran” argument to start him over Cingrani if at all possible.

    • @Eric the Red: I’ve been worried since the back trouble began that we wouldn’t see Cingrani again this year. The track record of this staff getting players healthy and ready is very shoddy to say the least. It’s a shame because Cingrani is one of the few who seems to genuinely give a crap about winning. I think he’d be great in high leverage situations out of the pen, but I would feel much more confident with him on the mound every fifth game than Reynolds even given Reynolds recent success. In a one game must win scenario Cingrani might be 2 on my list of who I want starting behind Latos. Dude just flat out wants the ball in my opinion.

      • @Y-City Jim: @Eric: We just have differing realities.

        I see all the games that have been lost in the 7th and 8th inning and the thing that impresses me is that another arm which throws hard and misses bats would almost certainly stop that bleeding.

        Hoover and Sam LeCure have not been the answer. In my mind they have enough depth at starter that it is an affordable opportunity cost to put Cingrani into the pen for the rest of the season.

        • @OhioJim: The equation might come out differently if Cingrani consistently pitched into the 8th. However at this point he is a 6+ inning pitcher.

  3. Barring a sweep of the Angry Birds, I’d say we need to plan on playing #163. Let’s just hope it is at GABP or PNC rather than in St. Louis.

    • @jas_428: Nope. Probably the soonest would be when the beat reporters interview Baker before the game. But they might not ask. And Baker might not be completely forthcoming. He doesn’t like to let the other team know when a player isn’t available.

    • @jas_428: Looks like Heisey might be OK. Not the same hamstring as before.

      From John Fay in the paper version of the Cincinnati Enquirer: Chis Heisey left Sunday’s game after breaking up a double play in the eighth inning. “When I tucked my leg to slide, my hamstring cramped,” he said. “I stretched out. It’s OK. They wanted to take me out as a precaution. I’m sure I’ll be all right.” It was Heisey’s left hamstring. He missed seven weeks with a strained right hamstring early this year. Heisey had gone 4-for-4 at the plate.

  4. Cardinals lineup posted. Carlos Beltran not starting (back tightness). Possibly available to pinch hit.

    1. Matt Carpenter (L) 2B
    2. Jon Jay (L) CF
    3. Matt Holliday (R) LF
    4. Allen Craig (R) RF
    5. Yadier Molina (R) C
    6. Matt Adams (L) 1B
    7. David Freese (R) 3B
    8. Daniel Descalso (L) SS
    9. Adam Wainwright (R) P

  5. Reds Lineup posted:
    Choo 8
    Phillips 4
    Votto 3
    Bruce 9
    Ludwick 7
    Mesoraco 2
    Frazier 5
    Cozart 6
    Latos 1

  6. It will be interesting to see if Dusty will pinch run for a catcher late in the game if one gets on base. With the extra catcher, it would allow them to pinch run with Hamilton for the catcher.

  7. I just read Dusty’s comments about the play where Votto was thrown out at home. I’m not saying he has to throw Votto under the bus, but come on: if he seriously thinks that was the correct play then he should 1) Criticize Mark Berry for putting up the stop sign and 2) Have his head examined. If that play was the “right” play in the Manager’s eyes, it’s no wonder we are so TOOTBLAN-tastic.

  8. The Reds (that is Dusty) plainly stated that Cingrani would be back on Thursday, September 5th, the day he’s reactivated, and would start against the Cardinals.
    I did not hear a statement that the plan had changed.

    The announced pitcher – 3 days in advance – isn’t necessarily who will pitch.
    They might not want to announce Cingrani until they’re sure he’s ready to go.

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