2013 Reds / Game Thread

Game Thread: Reds at Brewers (2013.08.16)

I have decided that today I do not care the process in which today’s Reds game plays out as long as at the end of 9 innings the team in red has more runs on the board than the team they are playing.

Mike Leake, you do a good enough job to keep Milwaukee’s runs as low as possible. Guys on offense, do enough to score at least 1 more run than the Brewers. Thank you, and have a nice day.

Fans of the team in red, discuss how things play out here and cheer for the Reds to have that one run more than Milwaukee!

440 thoughts on “Game Thread: Reds at Brewers (2013.08.16)

  1. A big positive for this game are the ABs from Heisey and Frazier. If they can stay hot for at least a couple weeks this will be a different team than it has been.

  2. When Phillips quits trying to go deep on every swing as the “cleanup hitter” he’s dangerous.

  3. Heisey with 2 ribeyes, Frazier with 4. The lineup construction possibilities are endless for Dusty. They both seem to be “going” now. So tomorrow we will see Izturez in the two-hole, XP hitting sixth, and Hannahan hitting seventh.

    • @RedTitan19: yea, but I like the upside, as the Reds would be so much more formidable if they could get Frazier, Mez, Cozart and Heisey going. Even though Reds lost tonight, some very valuable signs came out of tonight’s ballgame. Hope that quartet can keep it going – the Reds need them.

  4. The Angels get the Doofus Award for 2012 by trading Jean Segura for about 14 starts from Zachary Greinke.

  5. Dear Dusty:

    How many runs does an average MLB team score with a runner on First and no outs? The answer is 0.93 runs. Now let’s bunt and suppose the bunt succeeds. Now we have a runner on second base and one out. How many runs does an average major league team score in an inning with this situation? The answer is 0.71 runs. Therefore the “success” of the bunt has cost our team – 0.22 runs. This should make it clear why the bunt is usually a bad idea.

    • @abox03: I was working on this before the walk off, but…

      Let’s take 10 situations and look at what would happen.

      – A bunt is successful about 76% of the time (good bunters) so we will say 8 in 10.

      So 8 times (.71 runs) = 5.68 + 1 time not advancing (.52 runs) + 1 time double play (.01) =

      Total of 6.21 runs potentially scored in those 10 innings with bunting

      Now, not bunting…let’s assume you have an average hitter so 2 out of 10 times he gets a hit. 2on and no outs (1.75 runs x 2) = 3.50
      He grounds into a DP about 10% of the time so 2 outs and no one on (.01 run x 1) = 0.01
      The other 7 times we are left with 1 out and runner on first (.52 x 7) = 3.64

      So a total of 7.15 runs potentially scored in those 10 innings WITH OUT bunting

      So over 10 situations/innings you can score almost 1 full run more on average. Over the course of the season, that adds up to a lot of runs!

  6. Not a good beginning for Chapman. I sometimes wonder if he comes in too amped up and overthrows trying to get the mph up.

  7. So we have our answer. He can’t get Lucroy with a ton of fastballs. Chapman’s limit is 4 appearance in 5 days. 5 appearances in 6 days will not work. JHC.

    If the Reds didn’t have bad luck they wouldn’t have any luck at all.

    • @prjeter: What did “luck” have to do with it? Leake, Simon and Chapman were off (or just bad), and the bats other than Heisey and Frazier didn’t do enough – altho 6 runs should be enough.

  8. Problem with Chapman I have noticed….when players see several pitches in the AB, they seem to time him well and hit him HARD.

    • @abox03: The real issue seems to be (i) no effective true off-speed pitch and (ii) not really able to locate the pitches he does have, that is, where they hit in the strike zone appears largely accidental and not by any design. So if he is a little slower or a little flatter on his pitches, for whatever reason, the likelihood that he will get squared up for a long ball before a strikeout happens increases significantly.

    • @abox03:
      That’s not just a Chapman issue… These are major league hitters. Throw the same pitch over and over they will eventually adjust and hit it a long way.

      • @NYredfanatic: Definitely agree, NY – now if only Dusty would learn to mix it up, ala Jeff Brantley’s suggestion. Dusty’s way too set in his ways – so we should simply expect Dustyisms because he sure is not going to change. Checkmate!

  9. 80mph slider that didn’t slide… hate to get beat on that pitch but he wasn’t in triple digits tonight. We’ll get them tomorrow.

  10. Dusty is a scourge. Cincy Reds fans – this helps us to learn to our love of the team so when playoff time comes around we aren’t so heart broken and devastated. And by no means was I the only one to call his most recent blunder. Really can’t wait for him to move on!

  11. Imagine if I told you this at the end of the 2012 season:

    Chapman will have a higher ERA as the closer than Cingrani has as a starter. Heck, Cingrani’s ERA is still lower even if you add in his relief pitching innings too.

  12. Brantley said at the start of the inning that it’s hard to come in and face the same three guys you got out the night before.

    Chapman gave up the home run, but there shouldn’t have been anyone on base. The Reds have to get that out on Segura, it was a relatively routine ground ball for professionals. Bad throw, bad pick. Game winning run.

    • @Steve Mancuso: Not sure if I would have called that relatively routine. As they said on TV, even if Votto holds onto that ball, Segura is still safe. It’s not like Hanigan was running down the first base line. We’re talking about a 23-year-old who has stolen 35 bases so far this season. He’s pretty fast.

      • @ToddAlmighty: He’s fast and the play was close (I don’t agree that Segura would have been safe, that’s an easy thing for the TV announcers to say to take the blame off the players). The play still needs to be made, safe or out.

  13. Also can’t help but wonder what would have happened if Dusty didn’t tell Hanigan to bunt after Cozart led off the inning with a single. Runner on 1st, no outs turned into nobody on two outs. Inning essentially over.

  14. GOOD GRIEF! (when Chapman blows it, it’s just like Lucy moved the football). Oh well, Cards get shutout (actually spanked) by the Cubs. It’s baseball. Nuts.

  15. You gotta be kidding me, that freaking kick in the LuGroin guy beat us. Not going to criticize Dusty for bringing in Chapman, he’s the closer after all. But a lot of managers would have left Hoover in for the experience of closing, especially the way Hoover was pitching tonight. A manager that would leave Hoover in is the type of manager that recognized that Hoover was dominate and no move was really necessary, especially considering giving your closer a day off was probably beneficial. Back at em again tomorrow, can’t win em all. If the Reds win the next two I’ll be a happy camper. Go Reds! Adios Amigos.

    • @Sergeant2: Dusty thinks that :
      a) he’ll be back next year
      b) Chapman will be back next year (as closer, of course)
      and
      c) Hoover, who? (rookie going to be moved…somewhere, next year, (got to learn the “book’s” rules)

        • @Hunt4RedsOctober: @wildwestLV: Hey wilde, real good to hear from you.And my thoughts exactly. I wonder how Dusty is going to affect the team in the next 2 months?More Dustyisms coming – we can sure count on that.

          Let’s just hope Dusty keeps them to a minimum and lets the boys play, warts and all.

  16. Stop with the closer stuff. The closer is an overpaid reliever and isn’t even the most valuable man in the bullpen.

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