2013 Reds / Game Thread

Game Thread: A’s at Reds (2013.08.07)

Can the Reds make it back-to-back wins by taking today’s matinee matchup against the A’s?  It feels like forever since this team actually won two games in a row.  If you’re keeping track at home, it was exactly two weeks ago today that the Reds won two consecutive games.  To get that second win, the Reds will have to defeat Bartolo Colon, something that has only happened three times this season.  Perhaps Homer Bailey is up to the challenge.

It is a day game so tell your boss to shove it because you need to watch game 2 against the A’s.  Of course if your boss was a good boss, they’d take the day off with you to cheer on the Reds.  And if they were an exceptional boss, they would join in with our favorite cheer… Let’s!  Go!  Reds!

381 thoughts on “Game Thread: A’s at Reds (2013.08.07)

  1. Sam! Would have been nice to see him brought into the game on Sunday while it was still in doubt.

  2. Man, how is it that all of the Reds pitchers other than Bailey can look so good even when Mesoraco is catching? I think Bailey is such a headcase that he’s convinced himself that he doesn’t pitch well when Mesoraco catches, so he doesn’t pitch well.

    LeCure threw a couple nasty pitches there. Also put that strike three right where Mesoraco was calling for it.

    • Man, how is it that all of the Reds pitchers other than Bailey can look so good even when Mesoraco is catching? I think Bailey is such a headcase that he’s convinced himself that he doesn’t pitch well when Mesoraco catches, so he doesn’t pitch well.

      Probably. There is a lot of evidence that Bailey has a very fragile ego, he’s just worked to cover it up in recent seasons.

  3. You really gotta credit the Reds for paring down the repertoires of Simon and Parra, which has led to the success we’re seeing from them.

  4. Bailey—he had a rough go of it for many years–rushed to the bigs, multiple coaches/managers, trashed by the media. You can build up a lot of resentments over that time. I think that’s part of the reason he marches to his own drummer and his trust level isn’t as high as some other guys. While I hope he re-signs, I could see from his point of view wanting a change of scenery…..especially with all the free agent money sloshing around.

    • @Sultan of Swaff:

      He’s a pretty decent player, and if he does re-sign it would save the Reds the trouble of having to scramble to find a replacement for him, which would be hard to do.

      However, there is no room for egos on this team. If Bailey thinks he can do/deserves better than the Reds, I hope the front office realizes it and trades him before other teams catch on.

  5. I think it’s worth noting that Bailey gave up 2 runs in the first 3+ innings, and it would have been at LEAST 3 runs were it not for a great throw by Bruce. So I’m not convinced Mes’s presence had anything to do with anything. Bailey just didn’t have it today. These things happen.

  6. These claims that Homer is a “head case” or has a “fragile ego” where is the support for them?

    Homer has pitched really well this year, by any measure. In more than half his games this year, he’s given up two or fewer runs. Did everything just go right in those games? Homer strikes me as having a lot of fortitude. He’s continued to excel this year despite historic levels of non-support from the offense.

    Regarding his compatibility with Mesoraco, again, that’s entirely speculation. Does anyone have any quotes from Homer or anyone else about it. Mes has caught Homer four times this year before today and over 20 times last season. Why in the world is “ego” involved in the catching situation today?

    I really wish fans would keep their psychological characterizations of players out of it. None of us really know anything about who or what these players are personally, either good or bad.

    • @Steve Mancuso:

      It’s not speculation, Steve, there are media reports of Bailey taking subtle digs at Mesoraco. There is enough to it that people have noticed it. What, you think we’re all out just to bash Homer Bailey?

      • @CI3J: Got any links to those media reports? What the heck is a subtle dig?

        Anyone who makes a comment about Homer or any other player being a “head case” or “fragile ego” is yes, just out to bash a player. Yes. You think it would be the first time that *totally uninformed* fans got something wrong about a player.

        And then these things take on a life of their own through repetition, if left unchallenged.

    • @Steve Mancuso: His historic levels of non-support from the offense is in no small part due to the fact that he’s refused to pitch to the catcher with a 91 OPS+ and instead continues to pitch instead to the 55 and 41 OPS+ catchers. Combine that with the fact that he’s not really a great batter (career negative OPS+) and that’s already 2 black holes normally per game, 3 if you want to count Cozart.

      I don’t know if there’s a stat out there that measures how many times a pitcher mentally collapses in a game, so I don’t have any numbers to provide to you on that matter, I just know he’s always seemed to let things effect him and snowball out of control. Now granted he’s been better than he used to be, but I still wouldn’t put him in the same mentally tough category as say Tony Cingrani.

      As for the ego aspect, correct me if I am wrong, but wasn’t Homer Bailey one of the last two players in all of MLB to avoid arbitration before this season? I know for awhile it looked like they weren’t going to be able to avoid it. That tells me he thinks he’s worth a whole lot more than maybe the team thinks he is. Ego.

      • @ToddAlmighty: There’s no evidence that Bailey has “refused” to pitch to Mesoraco. And it’s only been in the past couple weeks that Devin’s bat has mattered. The difference in catcher hitting on the Reds is, in fact, a *small part* of the overall offense.

        I’ll type this slowly: In Homer’s 10 losses, the Reds have scored 11 runs. That’s Bruce, Votto, Phillips everyone – has scored 11 runs in those games. That’s not on Hanigan’s shoulders.

        “Mentally collapse.” Please. Whenever a pitcher gives up more than four runs has he suffered a “mental collapse?” If not, please let me know how you can tell otherwise that Homer has suffered from one. Can you read his face? Please tell me what measure you use to compare Bailey and Cingrani’s mental toughness? The scowl on their faces?

        If he has all these “mental collapses” how do you explain all the successful starts, the no-hitters, the nearly perfect post-season game, the six shutouts this year, etc.

        Earlier in his career – like back in 2008 and 2009, it looked like he got flustered when things went wrong. But that’s just simply an out of date comment.

        Regarding ego. My guess is that most professional athletes have a pretty healthy one. Being one of the last two players to reach arbitration might have had to do with (a) agent, (b) order the Reds processed the cases, (c) the length of time that they may have been negotiating a longer deal, etc. And the fact that he did settle, if he had such a big ego – wait, I thought it was fragile – is it big or fragile – or both? Poor Homer Bailey and his ego. Anyhow, he signed.

  7. Not sure if this has been mentioned already, but I think the scoreboard operator for MLB Network is drunk. There are constantly mistakes and delays in the ball-strike count, which has made it very difficult for me to score this game.

    Anyway, back to the ol’ scorebook. Go Reds!

  8. WHHHHHHHHHHHATTTT? Marty just said Dusy is on record as saying “we’re at the time of year now where I’ll bring Chapman out in the 8th inning”

    • @Matt WI: Yeah, twice now Dusty has said after the fact he was ready to do it, but ended up not needing to. Sounds like lip service to me, though. The first time was on the West Coast road trip.

  9. Marty just observed that now would be a good time for a four out save. Sigh. We’ve gotten to the point where it’s obvious to Marty.

  10. See, this Dusty’s new game. He warms Chapman up in the 8th to show how “flexible” he is.

  11. One positive this year has been the attendence. In past yrs a day game like this would get maybee 20,000 at best. Today it looks like about low to mid 30,000’s.

    • @Bruuuuuce: Hard shot to right-center. Choo and Bruce approached, Bruce laid down to avoid a collision, Choo made the catch. Ball was hit hard.

  12. I like Homer but I would be willing to deal him right after his next no-hitter or near no-hitter. There are some that just flat overrate the guy. If they start using FIP when counting runs he would be a top-10 pitcher but in the meantime, he just isn’t. For whatever reason. I’m not here to sort out the reason(s) why.

    • @CharlotteNCRedsFan: Good afternoon Charlotte. Thanks for your level-headed comment about H Bailey. And I definitely agree, the Reds should have tried to trade Bailey and Chappy for a solid if not spectacular bat (maybe at 3rd) at the trade deadline. What would the Marlins have wanted to Stanton – other teams pick up upcoming superstars (Detroit did). Why can’t the Reds?

  13. Dusty operates at a much higher level than we do. He knows that by getting Chapman warmed up in the 8th, he’s sending a message to the guy at the plate: “this is your team’s LAST chance to win, because if you get a hit, I’m bringing in my best pitcher.” It puts so much pressure on the batter — and he wilts. Chapman shuts down the opposition in the 8th without even throwing a pitch. Genius.

  14. Is it me or does it feel like the Reds have dominated this game yet they only have a 1 run lead.

  15. Was shocked to see that Hoover’s ERA is now below 3 and took a look at his game log. I did not realize he has not given up a run in 2 months (since getting hit hard against St. Louis in that extra inning blowout).

  16. The following 10 NL starting pitchers have easily been better than Bailey in 2013. As it is, it would be very difficult to put Homer in the top 20 at this point in time:

    1. Clayton Kershaw
    2. Matt Harvey
    3. Patrick Corbin
    4. Jeff Locke
    5. Jose Fernandez
    6. Adam Wainright
    7. Madison Bumgarner
    8. AJ Burnett
    9. Mike Minor
    10. Shelby Miller

    Second Ten:
    M Leake, J Teheren, S Strasburg, Ryu, C Lee, J Zimmerman, K Lohse, M Latos, J De Larosa and G Gonzales.

    And why do some posters need to take it personal when another poster doesn’t agree with their preposterous statements? Definitely uncool…

    • @cincyreds14:

      To put this into some kind of context, it would be nice to know what kind of criteria you used. Is this just opinion, or did you take the top 20 ERA pitchers?
      Bailey is much better than what you want to give him credit for.

      • @WVRedlegs: Bailey a top 10 SP – hardly:

        Criteria #1:
        Top 10 pitchers on the list have ERAs under 3.00 (with Shelby Miller’s the highest of the 10 at 2.89).

        Criteria #2:
        Sabermetrics

        Criteria #3:
        Wins

        Others on this Board make statements w/o support – ask them about their criteria (and no hitters are definitely a thing of beauty – but they don’t carry a lot of weight in the trade market. If so, why wouldn’t the Fish take the earlier proposed trade (Chapman and Bailey for Stanton) and another poster say it would take a lot more than Chapman and Bailey to acquire Stanton?

        • @cincyreds14:
          1. ERA is a good measure. FIP is better – it weeds out the effects of fielding and luck.

          2. “Sabermetrics” lol

          3. Wins are a terrible way to measure how well a pitcher has performed. It may be the worst. Depends too much on offense.

        • @Steve Mancuso:

          @cincyreds14:
          1. ERA is a good measure. FIP is better – it weeds out the effects of fielding and luck.

          2. “Sabermetrics” lol

          3. Wins are a terrible way to measure how well a pitcher has performed. It may be the worst. Depends too much on offense.

          Earned run average (ERA)
          “You’ve definitely seen this one before. It’s one of the most useful ways to determine a pitcher’s level of success. But did you also know that it’s a sabermetric?

          Earned run average is among the most important statistics in baseball, as it measures the number of earned runs a pitcher gives up per nine innings. The pitchers who allow the fewest earned runs are the ones who are considered most dominant as they allow the opposing team the fewest chances to score. Out of the past five AL Cy Young winners, how many led the league in ERA? All five of them.

          Fielding independent pitching (FIP)
          There’s a very good chance that you have not heard of this one before. FIP is an advanced sabermetric statistic as it measures what a pitcher’s ERA should really look like in regard to four primary statistics found in any pitcher’s line score: walks, hit by pitches, strikeouts and home runs allowed.

          FIP is calculated by multiplying the number of home runs allowed by 13, adding walks and hit by pitches and multiplying the sum by three, then adding these two numbers up and subtracting the number of strikeouts multiplied by two before dividing the total of those calculations by the number of innings pitched.”

          It sure sounds like FIP and ERA are both sabermetrics. And you scoffed at them?

          Maybe ML Baseball 101 is a good starting point for you – it sure seems like you have a lot to learn – not only about baseball but also about proper consideration and etiquette.

        • @Steve Mancuso:

          @cincyreds14:
          1. ERA is a good measure. FIP is better – it weeds out the effects of fielding and luck.

          2. “Sabermetrics” lol

          3. Wins are a terrible way to measure how well a pitcher has performed. It may be the worst. Depends too much on offense.

          No FIP does not – it doesn’t even factor in the # of hits (other than HR) or ER the pitcher has allowed.
          Simply put, a purely ancillary stat – not one to truly judge a pitcher’s -overall- performance.
          Now how many runs has the pitcher allowed (ERA) – that is the REAL question. And FIP does not even take that stat into consideration.

        • @cincyreds14: Because the reason the Marlins would want to trade Stanton is for many premier, CHEAP prospects, not two guys whose salaries are about to rise.

      • @Steve Mancuso: yup, just after he castigated and personally judged my comment. Stop directing personal judgments and comments at a poster and everything would turn out fine. As it is, you began this with directing a personal comment in my direction and hopefully this ends it. Please keep your comments directed at the Reds and not posters. Appreciate it!

        • @cincyreds14: I was careful in my response to you to call your comments ridiculous and unsupported. I didn’t call you any names. Those aren’t the same thing. You’re the one who seems to take criticism of anything you say personally. It’s not even logical that I would take “personally” something negative you wrote about Homer Bailey.

  17. Reading the comments, I want to take an impromptu poll.

    Question (unscientific): Does Homer Bailey have a big ego

    Next: Should the Reds extend Bailey or should they extend Latos?

    Final: Which would bring more should the Reds be forced to trade them, Bailey or Latos?

    • @rhayex: Probably but I’m guessing only a handful of MLBers don’t.

      Bailey

      Depends on who you trade him to. If it is to Steve’s team, I say Bailey. All others, Latos.

    • @rhayex: Ignoring the rest of it, I think they should extend Latos. He’s 18 months younger, is working on his 4th straight season of sub-3.5 ERA, 180+ innings pitched, 30+ games started.

      Bailey is older, and is trying for only his second season ever of 30+ starts, and under 4.40 ERA, as well as this season’s only the second time he’s pitched at least 140 innings in a season.

      Latos is simply more consistently good. I know there’s FIP and K/9 and all that which I never mentioned, but I would much rather sign a guy who I have faith will start 30 games, throw for over 180 innings, and get an ERA under 3.5 every year. Person can be as talented as they’d like, but it doesn’t matter unless you have faith they can do it game after game, year after year. With Latos, I do.

  18. These guys are driving me crazy with their Joey Votto hitting more HRs obsession. Also now I suppose RBI obsession.

    • @ToddAlmighty: Some may be struggling that JV is a 20-23 HR, 75 RBI guy. I say put him in the #2 hole and quit worrying about it. He is who he is. Ted Williams? Naw. More like a George Brett and that ain’t too bad.

      • @CharlotteNCRedsFan: I never really imagined Votto to be a 40 HR type guy, personally. That was more who I viewed Bruce as. The only way I could see Votto as a 40/100 type guy is if he had someone constantly getting on base ahead of him and a good batter behind him. Otherwise, why would an opposing pitcher ever want to give him anything good to swing at?

        Instead he’s sandwiched in between whomever Dusty is trying to get going (normally someone who has no business batting #2 like Cozart or Izturis), and Phillips who has been spectacularly average this season. .261/.313/.403, 92 OPS+, on pace for like ~20 GIDP. I’d throw Votto junk pitches all day.

        I think Votto’s much better than Brett. I also think the Reds are better off with someone like Votto, who’s game doesn’t revolve around HRs. I recall the Reds trying to build HR-reliant teams in the past. They didn’t have very good records. Votto is a career .317/.419/.547 hitter. Who could possibly find fault in that?

        • @ToddAlmighty: Much better? Hmmmm. Go have a look at Brett’s numbers during his prime – I think I nailed it actually. Sure his career numbers don’t match Votto’s numbers “now” but let’s see what Joey’s look like at the end of his career. Brett played until he was 40 years old and after his 30th year his numbers were fairly pedestrian by mortal standards. Don’t be shocked it we see similar things with JV at that point too.

          George Brett was a first ballot HF’er if I’m not mistaken so I certainly do not believe it is a rundown to compare Joey to him.

        • @CharlotteNCRedsFan: Absolutely agree- if Joey is favorably compared to G Brett, that would be an incredible complement to JV. As you clearly stated, Brett was a first ballot HOF, can’t do much better than that!

    • @ToddAlmighty: One of the more annoying themes those two mediocre idiots dwelt on for the game.

      The simple reason BP has more RBI’s is that Joey is in front of him and gets on. If BP were still batting 2nd like the plan said, Joey would have more RBI’s. Their HR obsession as “that’s what you are paying for” is absurd. I want to see our Reds pay to field winning teams – period.

  19. I just read Votto’s lips: he cursed. Better tighten that up (although I don’t think Dusty could hear him).

  20. 103mph!

    OK, that’s 2 in a row. Let’s start stacking up wins now. We got the Padres, Cubs, and Brewers. Gotta make hay NOW.

  21. The Reds next 17 games are the Padres,Cubs,Brewers, and D-Backs if they want to make a move now is the time.

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