2013 Reds / Titanic Struggle Recap

Titanic Struggle Recap: The Return of Aaron Harang

Let’s recap tonight’s titanic struggle….

FINAL
Seattle 4
Cincinnati 2

W: A. Harang (4-7)
L: M. Leake (7-4)
S: O. Perez (2)
BOX SCORE

POSITIVES
–Joey Votto was the only Red with two hits, one of which was his fifteenth homer. Devin Mesoraco reached base twice in three ABs, with a single, a walk, and a run scored. Shin-Soo Choo and Todd Frazier each doubled.

–Curtis Partch, Manny Parra, and Sam LeCure combined for four scoreless innings of relief.

NEGATIVES
–Mike Leake had a rougher outing than we’ve become accustomed to seeing, allowing four runs on five hits and a walk over five innings.

–The Reds offense mustered just six hits against an old teammate.

NOT-SO-RANDOM THOUGHTS
–Not a good start to the series. The bats looked suspiciously like the ones we saw on the most recent road trip.

–Our old friend Aaron Harang pitched well in his first start against the Reds at Great American Ballpark. Harang threw six innings, and gave up just two runs on six hits.

–Can you imagine how strange it was for Harang to warm up in the visitors bullpen, after all those years as the ace of the pitching staff for the Reds? The Nation wishes Harang nothing but success for the rest of his career; after all, he was a wonderful Red during his time here, both on the field and off.

All the same, however, I’d appreciate it if Harang wouldn’t beat the Reds anymore. I’m just saying….

Source: FanGraphs

16 thoughts on “Titanic Struggle Recap: The Return of Aaron Harang

  1. Some stats:

    Reds, BA with RISP, 2 outs: .178
    Reds, BA with RISP, 0 or 1 out: .306
    Reds, BA with RISP, overall: .248
    Reds, BA overall: .248

    What does that mean? Nothing. But Baker’s up late worrying about the 2 out number. I guess he feels he’s successfully coached the team when there are 0 or 1 outs.

    Reds, success rate at getting runners home from 3rd, < 2 outs: 53% (tied for *first* in the NL)

    Reds, success rate at moving runners from 2nd to 3rd when there are 0 outs: 58% (tied for 4th in the NL)

    Reds, success rate on sac bunts: 78% (tied for 5th in NL with Cards). Note that league wide sac bunts fail 25% of the time—something for Baker to consider? (not in a million years)

    Reds BA of pinch hitters: .285 (*first* in the NL). Honestly, I wouldn't believe that myself if baseball reference didn't say it. All I can figure is that the Reds bench players are even more terrible than can be believed when they start games.

    Basically, the above contradicts just about everything that comes out of Marty and Thom's mouths in a given broadcast. People who consistently post that the Reds are terrible at all of these "little ball" things should check the numbers. One can have his own opinion about whether they should play little ball, but the fact is, the Reds are good at little ball.

    • @Hank Aarons Teammate: It’s odd that, after a game in which the Reds got almost all of their hits with 2 outs, Dusty said: “We’ve got to start getting hits with 2 outs.” Seems like the main problem was not getting hits until there were 2 outs.

    • @Hank Aarons Teammate: Thanks for the myth-busting analysis. As for little ball, though, the Reds don’t seem adept at other aspects of it, such as baserunning, stealing, bunting, hit and run. Considering that a number of their hitters are not especially productive or streaky or both, it seems to me that appropriately deployed small ball might be helpful. But what do I know?

    • @Hank Aarons Teammate:

      What your stats don’t indicate is how many times we get guys on 3B or 2nd and 3rd. It isn’t often enough to overcome the failure of the weak links of the lineup.
      We should look at the ave w/RISP of Cozart, LF, Frazier and Catcher. I bet those are god-awful. This team may get the last wild card spot but no hope for anything meaningful with four or five automatic outs in the lineup.

  2. Based on Steve M.’s excellent series preview, I felt the Reds HAVE to win 2 out of 3. Not facing their 2 best starters, their road record, etc. That becomes a problem when you lose the first game, which is why I hate feeling you HAVE to win 2 out of 3.

    Oh well, it still might happen.

  3. Here’s a stat we can all feel good about:

    Reds, Players on Team Named Charlie Furbush: .000

  4. I know other lineup slots were also hitless last nite, but the LF combo of Paul/Robinson has really been struggling of late. Dusty admitted that Heisey has looked better since his return. So why not give him a shot to be the stopgap ?

    Thankfully it looks like Ludwick might be returning sooner than expected.

  5. I can’t believe I’m typing this, but Oliver Perez would look good in a Reds uniform down the stretch and in the playoffs.

    • @Drew Mac: We might need him today, since Dusty decided to overuse Parra instead of–for example–getting Chapman some work in the 9th inning of a close game. With all the LH hitters in Seattle’s lineup, this series really calls for some flexibility in thinking about how to use Chapman. Especially now that Parra will be unavailable today and probably tomorrow.

  6. Forgive this unorthodox post: I’m saying it here because probably nobody would see it otherwise, but thanks to all of you guys who responded helpfully to my question about rbi. I get that part of it now, and it makes sense.

    • @greenmtred: An addendum: I get that there is a very high correspondence between obp and runs, and that does make sense. It was pointed out, though, that Votto and Choo, because of their high obp’s are largely responsible for BP’s rbi’s. Again, I understand. But since the same poster pointed out that Votto and Choo are not among the league leaders in runs (or rbi), it would seem to reinforce my thought that obp can’t be considered in isolation: to be valuable it needs to correspond to runs in a specific instance, as in for the 2013 Reds. Again, I’d value reaction–this is not me being argumentative (perish the thought!), but me seeking information. Thanks.

  7. Votto is fourth and Choo is sixth in the league in runs scored.

    No one variable, including OBP, should be considered in isolation and I doubt anyone has said that it should. That said, studies have consistently shown that teams should pay more attention to OBP than to AVG. There was even a recent study that, if you only had to look at one thing, OBP is more important than power.

    Obviously, you want both on base skills and power for the best offense.

    The best single — and again, no reason to look at a single measure — measure of the overall effectiveness of an offense is runs scored. At this point, the Reds are third in the NL in runs, behind the Cardinals and Rockies, who are both well ahead of the Reds.

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