2013 Reds / Game Thread

Game Thread: Brewers at Reds (2013.06.16)

Johnny Cueto returns to the mound today to try and ensure the Reds take another series victory against the Brewers.  Cueto’s health (everyone’s health) and winning series are the keys in my opinion to the Reds eventually catching and passing the Cardinals within the division.

Happy Father’s Day to all the dads out there.  Hopefully you can sit back with your dad and son today and enjoy a Reds game and Reds victory.  Even if the Reds don’t win, enjoy the day with your family.  Go Dads and Go Reds!

170 thoughts on “Game Thread: Brewers at Reds (2013.06.16)

  1. Simon can pitch 3 innings, but Chapman can never pitch 2 because he’s called the “closer.” Makes perfect sense, doesn’t it?

  2. JC is such a stud that when he pitches a great game, he doesn’t even get a mention on RLN.

  3. “Simon can pitch 3 innings, but Chapman can never pitch 2 because he’s called the “closer.” Makes perfect sense, doesn’t it?”

    All pitchers are not the same. All arms are not the same. Simon and Chapman are not the same.

    • @Mutaman: Baker’s only argument has been “Chapman is my closer, and closers don’t pitch more than one inning.” Got nothing to do with arms.

        • @Mwv:

          Isn’t Dusty’s point really that he wants to be able to (in theory) use Chapman 3 days in a row if consecutive save situations present themselves. He is not as concerned about Simon being available tomorrow or the next day.

        • @CaptainTonyKW: Yeah, I’m afraid that’s his point. He’s more concerned about a hypothetical 3 run save situation two days from today than he is about nailing down today’s 1-run lead in the 8th inning. This hypothetical situation never actually seems to occur, but apparently it’s worth blowing several 8th inning leads just to be on the safe side. Because, of course, nobody else in the bullpen is capable of pitching the 9th inning with anything less than a 4 run lead.

        • @Mwv: There are
          “exact”quotes, there are paraphrases, and there is stuff you pick up on twitter. You don’t put quotes around anything that is not an exact quote.

          But I understand the mentality. Pitch Chapman, all the time. Its the NFL. Its a sprint not a marathon. And Baker’s stupid if he doesn’t do this. (That’s a paraphrase).

        • @Mutaman: I do put quotes around things that aren’t exact quotes. So apparently you’re wrong about that.

        • @Mutaman: I think you’re mistaking me for someone else. I’m not the one being emotional or snarky here. The other fellow pointed out that Dusty prefers closers to only pitch a single inning. He was correct. You then wanted a quote to that effect. You were being sarcastic of course but I just googled a bit and sure enough Dusty has been quoted in the media expressing those opinions.

          Then you decide to go with a straw man, implying that we want Chapman to be over-used. That isn’t the case at all from 90% of the folks here. We want Chapman used wisely. He’s the best arm on the team coming out of the pen. We want him used in the highest leverage situations as often as possible without damaging him.

          Is your contention that Dusty is doing this and we’re just bellyaching?

          Set aside the emotion and the attacks, I just want your honest opinion in comparison to others here. Is Dusty using Chapman wisely?

          If that’s how you feel then I understand an we just disagree, nothing wrong with that. Some friendly back and forth over the game we love is always fun.

  4. I was paraphrasing. Sometimes quotes aren’t meant to be taken literally. If you prefer an actual quote, here’s one:

    “I’m not going to use Chapman in the eighth. It’s too early. Something happens to Chapman, you’re stuck with the people everybody wants you to stay away from. The days of the eighth and ninth inning closers… that’s kind of by the wayside. ”

    http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20130614/SPT04/306140201/

    Notice, what he didn’t say is “Chapman’s arm is different than Simon’s. Simon’s arm can handle three innings, but Chapman can’t handle two.” Notice he did NOT say that. Or even imply it. Or even hint at it.

  5. To say that Lutz was the right call is ridiculous. That means that the right call is completely dependent on the outcome.

        • @Hank Aarons Teammate: It worked, and really that’s all that matters. Good game for the good guys. After the ugly game yesterday, giving Todd the game off was a good call. People seemed to forget about the 3-5 hole hitters when questioning where the runs would come from.

        • @RisingRed: I didn’t say anything about Frazier sitting, anything about losing, those were other people.

          “It worked and that’s all that matters” is typical, I suppose. So if Baker had put up Chapman to hit and he gets a hit, I guess that would have been the right move, correct?

        • @Hank Aarons Teammate: Tomorrow’s box score will read (2) RBIs for Lutz. It was a correct move for that instance and that place. I don’t see how in the world it can be argued. Facts are facts; troublesome to many but they are what they are.

        • @Hank Aarons Teammate: Tomorrow’s box score will read (2) RBIs for Lutz.It was a correct move for that instance and that place.I don’t see how in the world it can be argued.Facts are facts; troublesome to many but they are what they are.

          So, if you are 50 yards away, 2 seconds left, 4 points down, with an All-Star QB and All-Star receiving core, and you decide to run the ball for a score, even if it works, that means running the ball would be a good call? That’s stretching it way too much for most the world. That simply means the team was fortunate enough for the play to work, that the team would win “in spite of” the coach’s decision, not “because of” the coach’s decision.

  6. Also, the idea that your best relief pitcher should be pitched an inning so that he can go three days in a row if necessary is stupid. I realize that many (most) managers subscribe to this, but it’s stupid.

    Take the Reds in 2012. They had 56 saves. Let’s just say that they blew 5 in the 9th or later. That’s 61 save opportunities, i.e., ones where you want your closer in the 9th under modern day managing.

    So the chance of a save opp in a given game is 61/162, which is about 38%. Then, multiplying this by itself two more times, you get a 5% chance of save opps 3 days in a row. I know there is a formula to figure out how many times you’d expect saves 3 days in a row to happen, but I don’t remember it. It’s got to be perhaps 2 or 3 times per season. (And, note that there is some chance that when it happens, there’s an off day somewhere in between.)

    This year, for example, Chapman has had that situation once so far. (And, it was invented by Baker because each game was a 3 run lead, AND there was an off day after the first save.)

    So, saving your stopper from going more than one inning just to allow your stopper to pitch 3 days in a row in save situations is a completely terrible use of your best reliever. For any team.

      • @zab1983: Scott Williamson. They pitched him the way some folks here advocate Champman ought to be used. He blew his arm out after one year and was never heard of again.

        • @Mutaman: Try looking at his baseball reference page. What you just wrote is a complete fabrication. Unless, I guess, you are merely trying to point out he had an arm injury and think that lying about everything else is ok.

    • @Hank Aarons Teammate: First off, kudos to Walt for sticking with Leake, who btw leads their starters in era so far this season. Not only is it working out well for the rotation, but the bullpen would be rather bad shape without Chapman. I get what Dusty is doing with Chapman and that is trying his best to make sure he will be available all season long and in the postseason.

      • @RisingRed: There is not one bit of evidence to support the idea that pitching fewer times but more innings each time is more injury risk than pitching lots of 1-inning stints.

      • @RisingRed:

        @Hank Aarons Teammate:First off, kudos to Walt for sticking with Leake, who btw leads their starters in era so far this season. Not only is it working out well for the rotation, but the bullpen would be rather bad shape without Chapman. I get what Dusty is doing with Chapman and that is trying his best to make sure he will be available all season long and in the postseason.

        But you don’t understand Dude, its the NFL. Its a sprint not a marathon. These guys are all the same. I know, I looked it up in a book at the library.

    • I realize that many (most) managers subscribe to this, but it’s stupid.

      Now on one hand we have jim Leyland, kirk Gibson, Terry Francona, Joe Girardi, Davey johnson, etc, etc. On the other hand we have “Hank Aaron’s Teammate”. Now who should the adjective “stupid” apply to?

      • @Mutaman: Maybe you should go back and look at your last lie about Scott Williamson. I’m sure you won’t respond.

        You really are obviously RedsFanMan, trying to get banned again I see with personal insults to other posters. Not much has changed.

        In terms of managers who won’t use their relievers more than one inning, yeah, it’s always clear that people who manage teams and who are general managers are correct. After all, nothing has changed in the last 30 years about the way they do business, right? And 30 years ago, you’d have called me “stupid” were I to have said that OBP was more important than BA, because, after all, most managers and general managers subscribed to the idea that BA was most important at that time.

        My point was strictly the following: if managers are pitching guys one inning only because they want their closer available 3 days in a row, that’s stupid because it almost never happens that you need a closer 3 days in a row. That point is not stupid, it is indisputable.

        • @Hank Aarons Teammate:

          My friend you’ve been monopolising this site with your constant Baker bashing and your insults to others for too long. Its time somebody stood up to you. I’ll be checking in periodically. Guide yourself acordingly.

        • @Mutaman: Ya know, the reason Baker said the days of Fingers and Gossage have gone by the wayside is because Fingers and a Gossage actually did exist. And the reason we’ve heard of them is because they had really good careers even though they weren’t used the way Baker is using Chapman. Go figure.

        • @Mutaman: HAT’s not bad for a Cardinal fan. Pretty well harmless but outside of a very few, every Red is somehow below average in his view. If that is the case, than Dusty Baker is the greatest manager in Red’s’ history. He’s a plant so don’t let it get to you.

        • @Hank Aarons Teammate: @Hank Aarons Teammate: Yeah, “Hank Aarons Teammate,” you are the one who keeps insulting people who do not hold your views. I guess I am stupid, along with nearly all the other practicing managers today because I hold the “stupid” opinion that “your best relief pitcher should be pitched an inning so that he can go three days in a row if necessary.” I’m with Mutaman; time to stand up to you.

        • @standage: With you but you got to understand that the hated Cards are HAT’s team. Just go through the Game Threads and Recaps. It use to get to me but ‘ve figured it out and just brush off his negativity. The Cardinals are about to be knocked from there lofty perch and he knows it and it makes him sad.

        • @standage: This site is filled with posters like him. I think it was Chad Dotson who a couple weeks ago said something like “99% of all Reds fans really don’t understand how great Joey Votto is”. Narcissistic statements like that makes me shake my head. I guess we are in the presence of some of the brightest, best, and enlightened baseball fans on this green earth. We are lucky to just be in your presence. :roll:

  7. Im not sure that Chapman would be best suited going 2 innings at time. In the past it seemed that when he would go multiple days in a row, he would loose some velocity on his fastball. So they may be limiting him to 1 inning to keep him at his best. The Reds organization(from GM to Manager) as a whole seem to agree with me. Why else would they spend the dough to keep Broxton? You don’t really need a setup guy if your closer can go 2 innings(I am curious as to which closers have consistently gone 2 innings this year).

    Also the point HankArronsTeammate about throwing more pitches doesn’t increase your injury risk. I disagree big time. While there may not be stats to back it up, I think its almost common sense. If you use something more(almost applies to anything), you have a greater chance of that thing breaking.

  8. Wow, Simon must be really mad at Baker right now. Apparently Baker doesn’t care about his health or long-term success.

  9. Wow, I’m a Cardinals fan now! I’m sure glad “we” won the World Series in 2011, I guess.

    • @Hank Aarons Teammate: I just knew you would come out of the closet, sooner or later. Tell me that isn’t a load off your mind. It is okay, admitting you have a problem is the first step in recovery. Praying for you.

      • @CharlotteNCRedsFan: Thanks for the prayers. I have to admit that life would be easier as a Cards fan, what with their bunch of WS titles in my lifetime. But the thought of that is still kind of sickening, like being a Steelers fan, sure, you win a lot, but that team just makes me sick.

        I will admit there is one Cards player I like…the Carpenter kid. Seems to shut his mouth and play good ball. Then there’s the rest of those guys.

        • @Hank Aarons Teammate: HAT, love you man but I ain’t buying. You have a very funny way of expressing yourself about a team “that makes you sick”. Better to be open about your devotion to one team than a traitor to another.

        • @CharlotteNCRedsFan: You seriously think I like the Cardinals? I don’t have the time to troll a board.

          I’ve been a diehard fan of the Reds for an awfully long time. I was a fan when Wayne Krenchicki played 3B. When Brad Lesley was the closer. When Alan Knicely was great for about 3 weeks. Etc.

          Oh, yeah, and when the Reds won game 7 in 1975 and then killed the Yanks.

    • @Hank Aarons Teammate: I can’t tell if all this is serious or not. HAT isn’t a Cards fan based on his posts here. There are many many many posts of his that talk about strengths of the team as well as his critiques of the weaknesses. He’s grouchy at times but he’s also really direct about what he finds fault with and usually backs it up with facts. Seems respectable to me.

      • @Mwv: We just differ in opinions Mwv. Honestly, I do believe he is a Cards fan. Look back, he can’t praise them enough. Ever see a Yanks fan talk so highly of the Sox? Or vice-versa? I’ll give the Cards their due if they win the WS. Until then, not on your life. Are the Cards a good team? You betcha but it is far from a certainty they are superior to Reds over a 162-game schedule. And being Reds’ fan, I say hell no they are not on the Reds’ level.

        • @CharlotteNCRedsFan: Well, could just be different opinions then on what makes one a fan in the first place. Some people think it means to support the team positively no matter what happens. Other people think it means you follow them and ignore any bad thing that happens and focus only on the good. Other people get more into focusing on what could be improved, different choices you could make, etc. From my vantage he’s no less a Reds fan than anyone else around here. Some people are so negative that it gets to me at times but when I step back I realize it’s probably just disappointment speaking and not what they really think.

        • @Mwv: Sheesh, I’m not the one posting doom and gloom. I think this is an excellent Reds team. I’m frustrated with aspects of management and sometimes at Jocketty. Overall, Jocketty has done a really good job. I don’t like Baker, but I guess that disqualifies me as a fan. I’m not the one either saying he costs them 10 games per year because I know that’s untrue.

          I guess if you think the Cards are better it makes you a Cards fan. I do think they have a superior outfit, but also I’ve said that the Reds are up there, no one is as good overall as the Cards organization. It just is. I don’t like it, it just is.

        • @Hank Aarons Teammate: Nope, I’m with you on this one. I find your commentary fine though I did get a little irked the other day when you were leaving the short little comments that just stated Baker was an idiot. I happened to agree with you but I try pretty hard personally to just avoid the keyboard when Dusty makes me that frustrated. You’re getting a bum rap from a lot of these guys in my view. You are pretty fair down the middle on your negative/positive comments and the thing I like is that you back them up with stats.

          Keep on keeping on is what I say, these boards don’t suffer from your contributions. Now I’ll step down off my soap box and go out and finish mowing the lawn.

  10. “Ya know, the reason Baker said the days of Fingers and Gossage have gone by the wayside is because Fingers and a Gossage actually did exist. And the reason we’ve heard of them is because they had really good careers even though they weren’t used the way Baker is using Chapman. Go figure.”

    Did’t Chuck Bednarik used to go both ways? Boy is McCarthy stupid for not playing Rodgers at safety when hes not on offense.

    • @Mutaman: I keep hearing how baseball players used to take pride in not striking out, and now when they strike out it’s no big deal. Managers rarely complain about it. Guess that must mean it’s better to strike out more often, since, you know, it’s all the rage nowadays.

    • @Mutaman: As you probably know, it was La Russa who basically invented the concept of closers only being able to go one inning, and he did it for one and only one reason: he had a guy who’d pitched something like 12 seasons as a starter and he thought he could continue being successful if his innings were limited. This doesn’t apply to Chapman whatsoever. Other managers have mindlessly acted as if this concept must apply to everyone closing games, but this doesn’t automatically make it “smart.” One of the primary lessons of Moneyball is that just because most teams do X doesn’t mean X is actually the best way to win games. Managers often copy each other because it helps them deflect criticism (as illustrated by this discussion); it doesn’t mean they’re doing the right thing.

      • @Baseclogger: Don’t care about ‘Moneyball”. I saw Gossage pitch on numerous occassions. He had a rubber arm and he was strong as a horse. Chapman is not Goose Gossage. I’d like him around for the post season. You just don’t realize that its a 162 game season and athletes are not machines.

        • @Mutaman: Right. I’m sure if Chapman occasionally got four or five outs instead of three, he’d be completely unable to pitch by the end of the season. That would crank his inning total up from perhaps 70 to perhaps 75, and of course asking a pitcher to throw 75 innings would be ludicrous. Mariano Rivera pitched 107 innings his second year, and 17 years later he’s starting to experience some arm troubles. The correlation couldn’t be clearer.

        • @Mutaman: Right. I’m sure if Chapman occasionally got four or five outs instead of three, he’d be completely unable to pitch by the end of the season.

          The devil’s in the details. You don’t mean “Occasionally”, you mean “consistently”.

        • @Mutaman: Trevor Hoffman had seasons early in his career where he threw 90 innings, 88, and 81 innings. None of those seasons seems to have ruined his career. Lee Smith’s third year he threw 117 innings, followed by 103, 101, and 97.

          In fact, take a look at ANY closer who had a long successful career, and I think you’ll find seasons where they surpassed 75 innings. Chapman, at this rate, will never see 75 innings. What evidence is there to support this theory? Dusty Baker’s hunches, as far as I can tell.

        • @Mutaman: Trevor Hoffman had seasons early in his career where he threw 90 innings, 88, and 81 innings. None of those seasons seems to have ruined his career. Lee Smith’s third year he threw 117 innings, followed by 103, 101, and 97.

          In fact, take a look at ANY closer who had a long successful career, and I think you’ll find seasons where they surpassed 75 innings. Chapman, at this rate, will never see 75 innings. What evidence is there to support this theory? Dusty Baker’s hunches, as far as I can tell.

          Chapman piched 70 innings last year, despite losing time to a sore arm and was at close to 100% for the post season. Case closed.

  11. I guess this is one of those cases that closes when someone says something that doesn’t make any sense.

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