2013 Reds / Titanic Struggle Recap

Titanic Struggle Recap: Unhappy Birthday

Let’s recap today’s titanic struggle….

FINAL
Milwaukee 6
Cincinnati 0

W: Y. Gallardo (6-6)
L: H. Bailey (4-5)
BOX SCORE

POSITIVES
–Jay Bruce and Ryan Hanigan were each 2-3. Bruce had the Reds only extra-base hit, a double in the ninth.

–JJ Hoover pitched a perfect inning of relief.

NEGATIVES
–Homer Bailey was not good: he gave up six runs on eight hits and a walk, in seven innings.

–Joey Votto was picked off first in the first inning. TOOTBLAN.

NOT-SO-RANDOM THOUGHTS
–That was only the third time all season the Reds have been shut out.

–Homer Bailey is now 1-6 lifetime against Milwaukee.

–Our old friend Juan Francisco drove in three runs with a homer and a sac fly.

–I was kinda hoping the Reds would celebrate Johnnie B. “Dusty” Baker’s 64th birthday with a victory.

–What can I say? The Reds were never really in this game. Still have a chance to win the series tomorrow, however. Looks like Johnny Cueto will be making his return to active duty.

Source: FanGraphs

59 thoughts on “Titanic Struggle Recap: Unhappy Birthday

  1. Ha. Not just losing on Dusty’s B-Day, but not even showing much of an interest. I though Dusty, at the very least, was a manager his players actually like playing for?

    • @preach: This one had Milton written all over it from Votto getting picked off first, to Phillips not running out a ground ball, to multiple wild pitches from Homer. The best thing about baseball is it requires a short attention span to be successful and put days like this behind you.

  2. Looks like they partied all night long after Bruce’s walk off. It happens over the course of a season. I rather loose this way sometimes than blowing an 8th inning lead. Those are hard to take.

  3. So, I didn’t watch. Francisco’s homer, was it on a fastball (again)?

    Because for a team that had the guy for a couple years and knew he could only hit fastballs and was absolute garbage against down and away breaking pitches, the Reds have had a pathetically bad track record against him. A pitcher should never throw a fastball in any at bat that Juan has. Simple as that. Stick to that and he looks goofy.

    • @ToddAlmighty: Ryan Hanigan is no Yadier Molina. Not even close (but, who is?). Blue collar work ethic will only take you so far, then natural talent has to kick in, at some point. Sorry, but it’s true. And, albeit, including injuries: 2013 Hanigan < 2012 Hanigan.

    • @Jason1972: Agreed – whether you’re among the “idiot in the dugout group” (which I think I founded back in the Corey Patterson leadoff days) or the “we’ve won a lot of games” apologist group, can’t blame today on managing – the players simply didn’t perform, and we got thrashed. It happens. Let’s get ‘em tomorrow!!!

  4. Reds win tomorrow? I hope so, but Sundays have been cruel days for reds fans over the last month.

  5. This not enough data to be sure of anything, but Bailey has had three high pitch games recently, two of which were ones in which there was no reason other than “toughening him up” to pitch him as many pitches as they did.

    After each of these games, the following start, Bailey did not have his best stuff. The first time, he did pitch 7 shutout innings, but with only 3 Ks and most everyone here said he didn’t have his good stuff. The second time, he got bombed by Cleveland. And today, he clearly didn’t have his best stuff.

    Just saying. Something to keep an eye on.

    • @Hank Aarons Teammate: Good call, the last two times he threw over 115 pitches in a game, he’s followed it up with 7 earned runs and 6 earned runs.

      Honestly didn’t even think about that until you brought it up.

      • @ToddAlmighty: Looking at the 2012 data, I don’t really see a pattern…it depends if you make the cutoff 110 or 115 pitches. No games at 120 pitches last year either.

        Maybe I’m overthinking it. I’m just going to keep an eye on it.

    • @Hank Aarons Teammate: If possible, why not add a day to Bailey’s rest after he has a high pitch count game? or maybe don’t let Bailey go 100+ pitches? Did the same thing happen last season?

      • @jessecuster44: You’re talking about a team that knew for multiple days Cueto didn’t felt sore and still didn’t make sure Cingrani could fill in the start.

        As for Homer though, he’s passed 115 pitches three times this year after 3 starts into June. At this point last season, he had thrown zero starts of over 115 pitches. He didn’t throw a game with more than 115 pitches last year until September, which he did twice.

        Games following a start with over 115 pitches:

        2013: 3 games (May, May, Jun), 17.2 IP, 13 ER, 3 BB, 12 K
        2012: 2 games (Sept, Sept), 14.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 BB, 8 K
        2011: 2 games (Aug, Sept), 10 IP, 7 ER, 4 BB, 13 K
        2010: 1 game (May), 4 IP, 7 ER, 5 BB, 3 K
        2009: 3 games (Sept, Sept, Sept), 17 IP, 6 ER, 10 BB, 12 K

        So with 11 starts following a start with over 115 pitches, Homer has a total of 63 IP, 35 ER, 26 BB, 48 K throughout his career.

        Career averages after over 115 pitches:
        5.2 IP/start
        5.00 ERA
        3.7 BB/9
        6.8 SO/9

        Career Averages:
        5.2 IP/start
        4.38 ERA
        3.0 BB/9
        7.3 SO/9

  6. Sometimes when a decent pitcher is somewhat on his game, it can look like the team facing him is just mailing things in.

    For the Reds today I also suspect we saw some of the results of playing more than 3 and a half games in around 54 hours (14 innings+10+9). And in the middle of that they had to get on a plane and fly home, losing an hour in the process.

    The adrenaline and urge to put the ugliness of Thursday behind them probably helped carry the day on Friday but today the accounts became due.

  7. This was one of those games.

    Francisco’s HR? Opposite field slice that dinged the foul pole. What can you do?

    I do not like DatDude not running out ground balls. He did the same thing in Chicago a couple of times. Add Votto getting picked off, and I’d say that this team is mentally tired.

    Hopefully the Reds shake it off, refocus, and play better for the rest of the homestand.

  8. At the end of the pregame show with Dusty, Marty asked whether Cingrani was going out when Cueto is activated tomorrow, and Dusty’s answer was something to the effect of, we’ll deal with that tomorrow. You don’t think …

    • @vegastypo:

      Please say it ain’t so. Initially, this may be a good thought (Cingrani as the LOOGY) as a stop-gap measure until Marshall returns. But we all know that Dusty will fall in love with his new LOOGY and then we end up overpaying to bring back Arroyo for a few years while Cingrani’s development as a mainstay in the rotation is blunted. No thank you.

      • @YorktownRed: That’s exactly what I bet will happen.

        As you say, Cingrani should be in the pen for the playoffs…maybe September. That’s it.

        What has Parra done wrong in terms of getting out a single left handed batter? He has done the job for the most part. He’s terrible, but as a LOOGY, he’s ok, and Cingrani will be used as a LOOGY if he’s in the pen. It’s a terrible idea.

    • @vegastypo: The entire context of that segment was that Dusty put forward that they had a plan to “protect” Cueto “and some other guys”. It was suggested by someone on this site that Greg Reynolds seemed to be the hottest starter in Louisville right now and might figure in such plans. However Reynolds started and threw six (strong) innings for Louisville tonight, so he would seem to be out of the immediate picture. To me that leaves Cingrani or a trade but why would they wait over night to announce a trade>

    • @MarvinBakerDustyLewis: Not to say Arredondo necessarily (he’s struggled at Louisville, but at least has considerable experience), but Villareal? 21-40 with a 4.44 ERA in the minors – have to think there must be a better choice…

        • @OhioJim: Ummm, that could be (and should be) fixed in about two seconds. Switch them.

          It’s ridiculous that Villareal, who’s done nothing impressive in the minors, is on the 40 man, and Arredondo, who at least contributed to the Reds for a couple years, isn’t.

    • @MarvinBakerDustyLewis: I’ll be really surprised if Villarreal isn’t gone on Sunday with Cueto taking that roster spot.

      The real question I think is does Cingrani stay up and work out of the pen or is there something else working?

      BTW, it has been suggested that Greg Reynolds might be brought up to be the long man. For what it is or ins’t worth, he started tonight and pitched 6 innings for Louisville in a 2-1 win for the Bats. So, he would not seem to be an immediate call up.

      • @OhioJim: That people are dying to call up this Reynolds guy displays the mess that is the Reds depth/farm system right now.

        • @Hank Aarons Teammate:I do not disagree. But i suppose Reynolds is probably better than Zach Duke :)

          And I agree that between the guys traded and guys brought up the last two years, the cupboard is bare both in terms of immediate help and guys with trade value to bring immediate help.

        • @OhioJim: And if Marshall is out most if not all the rest of the year or comes back and has to try and pitch cutesy because of an ouchy shoulder, giving up Wood for him then rolling him over is about as big of a disaster as the Madsen situation was.

          There is a case to be made that Chapman is where he is today because of the Madsen situation in 2012 and because they knew Marshall was ouchy and iffy coming out of camp this year. On top of the money involved that is an even steeper price.

      • @OhioJim: Wow, I looked up Greg Reynolds and I am asking myself “what changed”? Guy was horrible in the two years he’s managed to get in the majors, and not even good in the minors since he went above AA level ball.

        Now all of a sudden he’s 7-0 with a 2.51 ERA in 13 appearances/12 starts spanning 86 innings. So I can only ask myself what changed when he turned 27? Did he reinvent his pitching style like Dickey? Develop a new delivery style like Cueto? I feel like 12 starts is long enough to say it’s not sheer coincidence that his ERA is 2.05 lower than his minor league career average.

  9. Was at the game today, games like today happen. One real issue I have is off the field. Sorry but this ain’t NY, Boston or even Chicago, yet prices are equal to them. I can remember back when gift shop prices and game used items and concessions were reasonable…not any more. A used lineup card from the dugout sells for $75. WTH, I have 2 that I bought from the Reds back when the gift shop was in downtown….cost $10 for two.

    A souvenir cup soda $10? A Reds ST hat $42? I guess this is how we are paying Joey’s salary….

  10. I’m thinking beyond Dusty (whenever that age begins). Why waste Cingrani, a promising future starter? You can already flush Aroldis Chapman down the toilet, with a kiss of ty-D. Baker-bol. But why do we have to destroy what little we have left of our farm system to accommodate the ineptitude of the front office?

    • @wildwestLV: Consider where the Reds were a few years ago and where they are now: this does not speak of front-office ineptitude. I think that it is nearly inevitable that a small-market team, in becoming a contender, will have to deplete its minor league talent temporarily. From the hand-wringing angst on display at RN, a casual observer would have to conclude that the Reds are having a dreadful season–maybe 13 games UNDER .500.

    • @wildwestLV: I’m not so sure this is a bad thing. You are going to lose better than a third of your games no matter what and this was one of those. All around poor performance by the Good Guys. The sooner they forget about this one, and get going tomorrow, the better. Not too often are the boys out of it from the get-go and they sure were today. Just hate it was a Saturday afternoon home game.

  11. Season is still so young! Brew Crew could still win this thing! Not the Cubs though obviously…………

  12. Reds as a team are slugging .398. Hasn’t been that low since 2009 .394. In 2010 the Redlegs had a monster year slugging .436.

    • @zab1983: Isn’t that almost solely due to the Reds bench? Hannahan/Izturis/Heisey.. then add Hanigan. They’re slugging .261, .194, .293, and .261 respectively in a combined 322 AB. That’ll make any team average look bad.

  13. We lost by six runs, but that’s no reason to let a good gripe go by: what in the world was Dusty doing PHing Lutz in the 7th? He can’t hit a six run homerun, so why not let Robinson (or Mesoraco) PH to keep the line moving? Lutz was –literally–almost a guaranteed strikeout vs a LH specialist. Sure, we were probably going to lose, but why do that? If I’m Walt, I see that and think he’s only doing it to show me up for not having a better RH bat available. Which is probably correct since baseball strategy can’t explain it.

  14. Went to the Bats game in Norfolk here last night. Two thoughts…
    Reynolds is solid, but not a MLB pitcher IMO. I think fastball topped off at 90 mph.

    Bats were stealing bases and hit and running…Hamilton single handly manufactured a run. Chopped it over 1st basemens head. stretched it into a double…stole 3rd….ect. He is very dynamic.

  15. Great to see that JC is going to take the hill today. He is without a doubt the Big Dog on this block and a true #1 starter. Mat is a solid #2, Homer a #3 boarding on a #2, Leake is a superior #4 in anyone’s rotation, and Bronson the same as the 5th starter.

    But, Johnny is the man and God knows they need him. If he stays healthy, the Reds should be in 1st by the ASB.

    • @CharlotteNCRedsFan: In terms of the Reds catching the Cards by the ASB, I’ll agree that the Cards appear to have leveled off for now. But the Reds matched them game for game for 5 weeks or so and also seem to be leveling off soe in the last week. I’m not sure the injection of Cueto by itself is enough to power the Reds onto a run to make up 3.5 games in a little less than a month when the difference in the loss column is -4 and the Cards have a game in hand,

      • @OhioJim: I see your point but the Cards seem to be returning to earth and maybe it’s just me but the other starting pitchers seem to perform better when he is in. For instance, I don’t believe that Latos is comfortable being the “man” at this point. IMO, JC stabilizes the rotation. Really looking forward to today’s game.

  16. Sunday’s line up posted, as per Mr Fay:
    Derrick Robison cf
    Zack Cozart ss
    Joey Votto 1b
    Brandon Phillips 2b
    Jay Bruce rf
    Xavier Paul lf
    Jack Hannahan 3b
    Ryan Hanigan c
    Johnny Cueto p

    Also Mr Fay says:
    “It’s just a day off for Shin-Soo Choo”……

    “The Reds did not announce the roster move. But Baker said left-hander Tony Cingrani is available to back Cueto up.”

    • @OhioJim: The roster move about has to be Cueto in the spot formerly filled by Viiarreal (unless there is another injury we weren’t aware of)

      Also while Choo is supposedly just getting a day off, I would say this is probably the Reds best defensive line up which might also aid Cueto some. (apologies to the Frazier fans but Todd’s defense hasn’t been that great in the last couple of weeks).

      • @OhioJim: Not sure I agree about TF in the field lately as I haven’t observed a drop-off but he looked like crap at the plate yesterday. Same with Shin-soo so I’m happy they are getting a breather before the Pirate series. Be nice to see JV get rolling today.

    • Sunday’s line up posted, as per Mr Fay:
      Derrick Robison cf
      Zack Cozart ss
      Joey Votto 1b
      Brandon Phillips 2b
      Jay Bruce rf
      Xavier Paul lf
      Jack Hannahan 3b
      Ryan Hanigan c
      Johnny Cueto p

      Also Mr Fay says:
      “It’s just a day off for Shin-Soo Choo”……

      “The Reds did not announce the roster move. But Baker said left-hander Tony Cingrani is available to back Cueto up.”

      I do not doubt that Choo could use a day off but why not against one of the lefties the Reds are facing in the Pirates series?

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