2013 Reds / Titanic Struggle Recap

Titanic Struggle Recap: Milton

Let’s recap tonight’s titanic struggle….

FINAL
St. Louis 9
Cincinnati 2

W: A. Wainwright (9-3)
L: M. Leake (5-3)
BOX SCORE

NOT-SO-RANDOM THOUGHTS
–Devin Mesoraco had two hits, including a double. That was the only sliver of a bright spot to be found tonight. Given the opponent, I’m not sure the Reds could have played a more disheartening game.

–But it was just one game…

–I plan to forget about the Reds and go back to watching the US vs. Jamaica in this World Cup qualifier. Much more entertaining.

A terrible showing tonight, Redlegs. Just awful. Milton is disappointed.

A terrible showing tonight, Redlegs. Just awful. Milton is disappointed.

46 thoughts on “Titanic Struggle Recap: Milton

  1. No plate discipline and horrible pitch recognition, no patience at the plate, no making pitchers work and throw strikes. The Cards are a better team, they give you professional AB’s up and down the lineup. We have a better defense, but St Louis’ offense, rotation and bullpen are much better than the Reds. Hopefully we come to play tomorrow, but like I said before the 6 game homestand started, we’d be lucky to go 1-5.

  2. Most wouldn’t expect Leake v Wainwright to end well too often. Much more telling will be tomorrow’s game. But all that being said, the bullpen…. Woof!

  3. Honestly, I’m having a hard time getting upset over this. I really just don’t see the Reds winning the Central, so really, these games aren’t as important as playing the teams that are competing for the wildcards.

  4. Here’s a question: how much would you pay to see the Cards win 115 games, the Reds win a WC and the WC game, and then the Reds to knock off the Cards in the NLDS?

    • @Hank Aarons Teammate: Nice thought but the more I see the Cards, the more it is clear that they are the best team in the Central. Heck, they are probably the best team in baseball. They may be one of the best teams in history. Our Reds may well win 93-95 games this year and lose the Central by 10 games.

  5. Ondrusek and Parra have NO business on this team, the prob is we have ZERO depth and ZERO options in AAA. I can see why Jocketty drafted a couple of bullpen arms that will move quickly in the first 10 rounds of the draft so far.

    Along with the pen problems, Cozart in the 2 hole is killing this offense. Also, we lack a true # 4, a RH power hitter who scares the opposition.

    • @Josh: The Paul/Robinson rotation should be batting #2. Robinson’s OBP is .421, Paul’s is .378 both of them being able to take 4 balls… and between the two playing for better matchups, that could be a quality #2 batter. Not to mention since they share the same position, there’s no lineup reconstruction based off of which one is starting that day.

      • @ToddAlmighty: I agree with this. The time has come and gone to play it like Paul and Robinson are just keeping the spot warm for Heisey. Who knows when Heisey may be back; and, besides these two have given the Reds a stronger effort that he would have anyway.

        Unless Walt pulls the trigger on something really big that puts BP back at #2, the LF platoon needs to be there with Cozart dropped down.

      • @ToddAlmighty: It boggles the mind. You face Wainwright, you’re happy as can be if some lefty comes into replace him to face Choo/Paul/Votto. And, you pinch hit Robinson for Paul. I really see no downside to doing what you say. In every game, but especially against a Cy Young righty…why are we worrying about relievers?

  6. And I wonder what Cardinal fans were saying after the Reds spanked them 13-4 in the 1st head to head game of the season back in April?

    The Cards outplayed the Reds by 1.5 games over the first 5 weeks of the season. They teams played even for the next month and now the Cards have picked up 2.5 on the Reds in 3 days.

    I’ll repeat what I said back in early May, the Reds need to be careful or the Cards could create some meaningful separation that could be tough to close. The Reds rose to the challenge over the last month. Hopefully they will catch their collective breath and do so again.

    • @OhioJim: The Cards are 4 games up, which is not a big deal. However, looking at the teams, the Cards appear to me to be better. Also, something overlooked IMO is that Mitchell Boggs is now mostly in a mop up role. He cost the Cards a number of games this year, and that’s not going to be repeated from here to the end of the season. The Reds have no such player that caused a bunch of losses and is now basically gone.

      You combine a 4 game lead with being better, and having more depth, and I’d say the Cards have a very good chance to stay ahead of the Reds.

      • @Hank Aarons Teammate: I was mildly surprised the Reds stayed as close as they did over the last month given how well the Cards played. That said, having done it for the last month, I see no reason they can’t reload and do it again, a major point being that neither team (and includes the Pirates too) are likely to play as well over a stretch as long as month.

        Over time, the Reds starting pitching and defense should emerge as stronger than the Cardinals in those areas. The Cardinal wunderkinds are going to be learned about by the league. They are also likely to wear down. In total they don’t figure to be able to maintain what they have done to date. Conversely, barring further injuries, there is a history that indicates the Reds starters can maintain or come very close to maintaining their performances to date.

        I agree the Reds are not going to match the Cards offensively every night; but, I’m not sure the Cards offense has another level to give if their starting pitching comes back to earth.

        We may not know until the last day or two of the season which team wins the division.

        • @OhioJim: The thing is, as far as I am concerned, the Cards offense is already at a level higher than other’s.

  7. Despite my previous remarks I think something is not quite right with this team currently.

    Obviously BP is probably something less than 100%. I couldn’t help but wonder if a truly healthy BP wouldn’t have snagged that rally starting grounder in the 4th.

    I’m wondering also just how healthy Votto is. Last weekend in Pittsburgh, the TV caught what looked to be an interesting exchange between Votto and Baker after Votto had come all the way around to score fro, first on a double. Votto had just spoken with one of the trainers then walked over and had a short exchange with Baker. The inning ended; and, I expected when they came back from commercial that we’d find Votto had left the game. And then there is the fact he was totally disconnected mentally that day and has gone from one of his absolute tears to a serious slump so suddenly.

    • @OhioJim: Recently Votto’s been off mentally, presumably just tired, hopefully the day off on Thursday will help.

      His base running has been tentative and conservative all season. He’s run the bases like a pitcher, either because his knee is not 100% and/or because he’s still nervous about sliding, stepping on a base not quite right, etc.

      Interesting your mention of the play where he scored from first on a double. That was the first time all season I saw him run hard to score.

      • @pinson343: With Votto, the entire thing may be that he’s tired and needs a rest. I can’t help thinking that part of it is when Baker admonished him for dropping the F-bomb during a game. With that, Baker wasn’t letting Votto be the player that he is, I believe. And, with Baker’s public encouragement of players on opposite teams fighting and throwing at each other who have arguments to settle, Baker has no “respectability” (lack of better word) to base his statement on with Votto. Baker’s statement could have very well just got Votto concentrating on him “public image” rather than playing baseball.

        I said before, if Votto was giving the fingers to the fans after each AB or something, then yes, I do believe Votto would deserve admonishment. But, for just letting go an F-bomb? Baker has a lot more problems to worry about than that as a major league manager.

        • @steveschoen:Yeah I was also thinking the same thing. After every bad pitch he gets, it seems like he wants to say something, but no Dusty won’t let him. That has to be doing something, to his slump.

        • @steveschoen:Yeah I was also thinking the same thing. After every bad pitch he gets, it seems like he wants to say something, but no Dusty won’t let him. That has to be doing something, to his slump.

        • @steveschoen: Joey’s so-far brief slump is the manager’s fault? Because the manager mildly admonished him for yelling swear words so audibly that the tv broadcast picked it up? He’s brooding now because he can’t swear when he takes a bad swing?

        • And I wonder what Cardinal fans were saying after theReds spanked them 13-4 in the 1st head to head game of the season back in April?

          The Cards outplayed the Reds by 1.5 games over the first 5 weeks of the season. They teams played even for the next month and nowthe Cards have picked up 2.5 on the Reds in 3 days.

          I’ll repeat what I said back in early May, the Reds need to be careful or the Cards could create some meaningful separation that could be tough to close. The Reds rose to the challenge over the last month. Hopefully they will catch their collective breath and do so again.

          And I wonder what Cardinal fans were saying after theReds spanked them 13-4 in the 1st head to head game of the season back in April?

          The Cards outplayed the Reds by 1.5 games over the first 5 weeks of the season. They teams played even for the next month and nowthe Cards have picked up 2.5 on the Reds in 3 days.

          I’ll repeat what I said back in early May, the Reds need to be careful or the Cards could create some meaningful separation that could be tough to close. The Reds rose to the challenge over the last month. Hopefully they will catch their collective breath and do so again.

          @greenmtred: Sounds like a heck of a reach to me too.

        • @LWBlogger: Sorry about the block quote. Wasn’t even replying to that post. Ugh, bad things happen when I try to comment using my phone.

  8. Robinson or Paul should definitely be hitting 2nd. Robinson’s speed is a no-brainer but we all know how that story ends. I just have zero faith in Dusty during meaningful games. Yes, Votto needs a day off. Four games out is nothing in June but the Cardinals simply own us. It’s amazing.

    • I don’t think the Cardinals are as good as they have been playing.

      And we are? The Reds are the team that have padded their current W/L record vs the Marlins and Cubs, not the Cardinals. After they sweep this series 21 of the Cards next 30 games are vs the Marlins, Cubs, Mets, and Lastros while in that same time span leading up to the ASB the Reds have 20 games vs the Pirates, @D-backs, @A’s, Giants, @Rangers, and @Braves. It would take quite an imagination to think we won’t lose several games in the standings during this time.

  9. An ugly loss indeed but let’s not place too much importance on a single game. I think it’s a bit early to concede the NL Central crown at this point. Overall, the Reds seem to be playing at a sustainable level thus far, while the Cards are not.

    Here are the MLB leaders in team batting avg with RISP for recent years:
    2013 St. Louis .342
    2012 Detroit .286
    2011 St. Louis .290
    2010 Minnesota .285
    2009 LA Angels .297
    2008 Minnesota .305
    2007 Detroit .311

    Anyone see an outlier here? What the Cards are doing at the plate is not likely to be sustained, and it would be surprising if they weren’t a few games ahead at this point.

    • @GeorgeFoster: But, that doesn’t mean they are going to fall off the face of the Earth with RISP, either. As it shows, even batting 286 with RISP would still be very respectable. And, that’s 56 points lower than where they are now.

  10. Reds bullpen ERA is a poor 3.78. They have 18 save and 7, yes 7, blown saves.
    I know the minors are empty of prospects but they need to find at least a couple of decent relievers.

  11. If we are willing to accept that players go through slumps, why can’t the same be said about the bullpen?

  12. I dislike the Cardinals more than any other team and I don’t really know why. They are a good team and a good organization. I have always thought they are the luckiest team I’ve ever seen. They always seem to get hot at the right time. Are they in the Reds heads? It sure seems that way. Reading these comments actually made me feel better about last nights game. I love this site and the posters – the negative and positive ones.

    • @Just A Fan: They’re like the Yankees in that regard (luck). But they’re somewhat more respectable in that they don’t buy winning teams. You have to admire the organization, how deep they are. I respect them, but I still despise them (and their arrogant fans). But, while the Reds are a very good team, they are just not as good as this Cardinals team this year. There’s really no argument. Besides our injuries, the bullpen isn’t as good as last year, and the offense strands too many runners to effectively compete with St. Louis. They win in starting pitching too (debatable with a healthy Cueto, making consistent starts). Plus, there’s the Dusty handicap added into the mix. The Cardinals pitching and hitting may level off at some point, but probably not much. Reds fans may also just have to accept that this is (yet again) their year. I heard many of the same arguments about how the 2011 Cardinals were going to cool off/ somebody had their number/they’ll come back down to earth/their luck will run out, etc.

  13. If people think that the Cards can’t maintain their pitching performance but the Reds can, think again.

    Yes, it’s certainly very likely the Cards pitching will degrade. But, consider this:

    Cueto, ERA+ 190, career 118, last 3 seasons 112, 171, 151
    Leake, ERA+ 140, career 100, last 3 seasons 96, 102, 92
    Bailey, ERA+ 107, career 94, last 3 seasons 91, 89, 114
    Arroyo, ERA+ 121, career 105, last 3 seasons 105, 78, 112
    Latos, ERA+ 140, career 115, last 3 seasons 126, 102, 120

    I’d say Bailey is likely to improve his ERA, maybe even a lot, and the other 4 are likely to degrade between a little bit (Latos) to a modest amount (Arroyo) to a lot (Cueto [given his health especially], Leake). So let’s be fair about this.

    • @Hank Aarons Teammate: Your point is well taken. I’m glad that Leake is pitching well, obviously, and hope that it represents what he’ll do in the future, but that’s far from a given. As is Cueto’s durability.

  14. Didn’t see the game (dinner company), but checked in periodically until nausea threatened to overtake me. I will attempt to change the Reds’ fortunes by one of two strategies: 1)Boycott tonight’s game (works sometimes) or, 2), break out my old Reds hoodie with Wily Mo, #26 on the back. This has been effective, but the sample size is small and the garment in question really needs washing.

  15. I will be at the game tonight. I’m in 433 or 436, I don’t remember. I hope they play better tonight to set up a rubber match tomorrow.

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