2013 Reds

Late Night Snack: Stanton to the Reds?

A friend just sent me the link to this article. It makes the case that there is a strong fit between the Reds and the Miami Marlins in a trade that would bring Giancarlo Stanton to Cincinnati. It’s from Robb Hoff, a Yahoo! contributor. While I don’t think the Reds would make this deal, it’s hard to argue with this:

Regardless of how much the Reds would have to give up, the acquisition of Stanton would make an expected contender like the Reds flat out dominant.

Sandwiched between lefties Joey Votto and Jay Bruce, Stanton would enable the Reds to move Brandon Phillips up in the order behind leadoff hitter Shin-Soo Choo and give the Reds a lefty-righty Murderers’ Row lineup that would strike fear in the hearts of pitching staffs throughout the game.

I just don’t see the Reds giving up on their plans with Ryan Ludwick. But while we’re in fantasy land, one possibility for 2014 would be to move Jay Bruce to CF and then play Ludwick and Stanton at the corners. We’d have to say a painful good-bye to Shin-Soo Choo.

85 thoughts on “Late Night Snack: Stanton to the Reds?

  1. they could have whatever they wanted

    Heisey, Hamilton and Stephenson for all i care

    throwing in Heisey so they could have someone to play now…and 2 top prospects

    the biggest impact would be getting a non-hitter out of the #2 spot. it would NOT be the addition of Stanton’s bat…the biggest impact would be forcing Dusty’s hand away from doing the biggest thing that hurts the offence.

    anything we can do to take Dusty out of the equation the better

  2. I’d give up any player named in that article for Stanton, but Stephenson or Travieso would hurt a little. I don’t see how they’d land him without giving up Hamilton, although the deal as outlined by this writer would send a lot of pitching talent to Miami.

  3. Agreed. I’d give up every prospect we have to get him, but I can’t envision a world where this actually happens.

    • @aweis09: I wouldn’t give up all of our prospects for ANY player. You get Stanton. What if he gets hurt? What if you can’t resign him? Small market teams such as the Reds seem most likely to be competitive by building from within, emphasizing pitching and defense, and cultivating enough timely hitting, small-ball offense to stay alive.

        • @Hank Aarons Teammate: I got that, but even as a figure of speech, I wouldn’t do it. It would take a lot to get Stanton–prospects and probably players currently on the team. It took a long time for the Reds to rebuild, and it will again the next time they have to do it; giving up a bunch of pieces of the rebuilding for one guy has too much potential to send us back to the wilderness.

  4. Whatever the likelihood of the Reds getting Stanton, I am not sure the Reds have the luxury of waiting around for their LF situation to work itself out.

    The Reds need to get on their game and stay there at least until there is some sign of a slow down by the Cards who have won 6 in a row and have the Cubbies coming up for two. Off of the Cubs they go home to face the Rockies, Metz, and Brewers for 10 games. Then they hit the road for 3 versus the Pads. They could easily win 12 of those 15. If the Reds stumble over the period, the NL Central race could be defined at least through the All Star break.

    • @OhioJim: I think this a bit over the top. They’re 2.5 games ahead. I’m a believe that the Cards are for real, IF healthy, which is a kind of a big if.

      I look at it more from the point of view of what would this do for the Reds, as opposed to keeping up with the Joneses.

        • @CP: That’s certainly true. Reds fans seem to think the Reds are going to be dominant over the next 5 years or so, and they haven’t checked out the Cards’ system. The Reds’ system isn’t even in the same zip code.

        • @CP: I guess what I’m trying to say is that the Reds are a good organization overall, but the Cards are a great organization overall. There’s no comparison, unfortunately. It makes me ill. Can’t they go to another division?

        • @Hank Aarons Teammate: The Cards always seem to have a plan, and a manager willing to implement that plan.

          It’s no accident that Tavares will be MLB-ready by next year, just in time for Beltran’s contract to expire. And there is no doubt that the Cards won’t be implementing the Devin Mesoraco plan.

          Although, something to keep an eye on are Trevor Rosenthal and Carlos Martinez…perhaps even the Cards will fall into their own Aroldis Chapman trap.

      • @Hank Aarons Teammate: It has been a couple of decades since I done my “follow the lead” analysis where I tracked “the lead” in a given division game by game regardless of which team held the lead and also track each team in the division individually game by game.
        However for any year where I’ve done it, the team that wins a division generally does it with a couple of strong spurts on the order of 12 of 16 wins while the competitors are mired at .500 or even worse over the sane periods.

        Starting from 2.5 ahead if the Cards win 12 of 15 which is very doable given their schedule while the Red go .500 (I’ll even make it 8-7 for the Reds), then the Cards would would be 6.5 games up at the end of the period. We’d be talking the AllStar break before the Reds could make that up unless they went on a similar run of their own while the Cards “slumped” at ~.500 over the period.

  5. Trading prospects for Giancarlo Stanton is something that winners do.

    You don’t trade all your prospects of course, but you trade a lot of them. Like Allen Iverson would say (paraphrase), “They’re prospects.”

  6. The deals the Yahoo contributor threw out is pretty preposterous. So basically 1 top prospect would be dealt (and LOL @ lumping in Corcino with Stephenson & Travieso), then a bunch of scrubs. Stanton is likely more valuable than Gio or Latos trade-wise, and the prospects were MUCH better.

    • @CP: Yeah, a pitching prospect or two, a close prospect, and some guy who hasn’t even thrown a pitch for the Reds’ organization. I don’t think so.

  7. The Cards are stacked. The Reds need to model that organization. Sad but true. What they have in the minors is amazing. #1 minor league system in most experts opinion. They don’t rebuild, they reload.

  8. Regardless of how good or great the Carda are, the fact is the Reds are a team to be reckoned with in their own right. Over the next 3 years, most of our players will be hitting their primes and should (theoretically) be posting the best numbers of the careers, including Bruce Frazier, and Votto.

    Boy, I tell ya, I wish Hamilton could still play SS. I would love to trade Lutz, Cozart, Travieso, and Henry Rodriguez and get Stanton in return with BHam taking over at SS and keeping Choo in CF. Just imagine this lineup opening day 2014:

    CF Choo
    2B Phillips
    1B Votto
    LF Stanton
    RF Bruce
    3B Frazier
    C Mesoraco
    SS BHam
    P

    I would hit BHam lower to put less pressure on him to begin with, plus with pitchers usually bunting anyway, he can get on, steal second and possibly even third, then get bunted home by the pitcher. The dude is THAT fast.

    I know this would never NEVER happen, but it sure is fun to think about. I’d love to keep Choo and somehow work BHam into the lineup as well as get a true righthanded powerbat like Stanton. But I realize the reality is probably 1 of 3 scenarious:

    1. Choo is a one season rental, and he’s gone next year with BHam in CF.
    2. We keep Choo, slide him to left and BHam is in CF.
    3. We keep Choo and trade BHam for someone like Stanton in LF.

    Of those, I can’t honestly say which one is most likely to happen, although most would say #1.

    We’ll see. But boy, that scenario with BHam back at SS sure is fun to dream about…..(at least offensively)

    • @CI3J: The organization decided Hamilton couldn’t handle SS. I wanted him to stay at SS also.

      The largest problem with your scenario is that Lutz, Cozart, Travieso, and Rodriguez aren’t even close to a package that could bring Stanton. If I were the Marlins, I’d tell you no and then change my phone number!

      • @Hank Aarons Teammate: Hamilton wasn’t moved to CF because he couldn’t play SS, he could and was very good. He was moved because Didi and Cozart were already playing SS and KO Stubbs was in CF.

  9. Amir Garrett?! . . . The Marlins would be lambasted for making the deal according to the author’s scenario. However, this is not to say there is not a deal to be made. How about Chapman, Hamilton, Lutz, and Rodriguez for Stanton, Mike Dunn (LOOGY), and Ryan Webb (RH reliever for depth)?

  10. Stanton seems a lot more likely to be a Cardinal than a Red. Meanwhile, Didi Gregorius is playing like Honus Wagner, although in only 30 ABs.

    You just never know with prospects. Nobody really knew that AA Joey Votto would turn Joey F. Votto as a major leaguer, and there are is a long line of ballyhooed prospects who have journeyman careers. I’d hate to deplete the system for three expensive years of Stanton.

    • @Big Ed: It’s not common for players who don’t hit at all in the minors to hit well in the majors. It happens, but rarely.

      Sure, there are lots and lots of good/great prospects who amount to nothing.

      In terms of Gregorius, I’m going to say that a minor league OPS of sub .700 in 2000 plate appearances is what I’d look at, instead of 30 plate appearances in the bigs. He also has 1 walk in 54 plate appearances in his career.

      Zack Cozart had an .811 OPS in his first 38 plate appearances. And while it’s true that Votto has been better as a major leaguer than minor leaguer, he was really good in the minors.

    • @Big Ed: For a team in a market this size, the next three years are probably going to be the best window in a generation to bring home a ring or two. Yes, Joey will keep us competitive for a good 5-6 years beyond that, but with Joey, BP, Bruce, and Santon in their primes along with a rotation of Cueto, Latos, Cingrani, And Bailey and a bullpen anchored by Marshall and Chapman, this is a team that can win it all a couple times. That’s more than a mid market team like the Reds can hope for more than once every couple decades. If the opportunity is there, you have to take it and you worry about rebuilding later.

      • @eric nyc: It’s by no means certain that we’ll be able to keep Cueto or Latos, and that really is the point: You stay competitive by developing good prospects and bringing them up as needed. Trade some, sure, but giving up the best of the farm system for one guy (who also would be hard to sign long term) doesn’t guarantee a championship and probably does guarantee years of irrelevance after the current guys are past their prime.

  11. Stanton just recently went on the 15-day DL with a hamstring issue. If a deal is to be made, I doubt it’s before Stanton shows he’s healthy for a couple of weeks. That puts a possible trade into June.

    What is the ETA on Ludwick returning?

    • @Greg Dafler: Ludwick said July or August recently. Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he didnt suit up again this year. That’s worst case scenario obviously, just wouldn’t surprise me. One setback and we’re talking about late August or September and is that really when you want to be mixing things up with a guy who hasn’t played a full game in almost a year?

      I’ve been floating a Stanton trade since the moment Ludwick went down. It makes too much sense all around. Year after year we watch teams like St Louis and San Francisco make big moves in season. We scoff and say “Oh look at them throwing all those prospects and money away” and then we sit at home while they win championships. This would be a smart move and I wouldn’t have any problem throwing in Hamilton to make it happen, especially if it meant keeping more pitching talent in house. Hamilton doesn’t look like he’s going to be an even average OBP guy in the majors. His speed will still make him a plus WAR player when coupled with his defense in CF, but that’s not enough to keep him locked in the “untouchable” glass case we’ve had him in for the past two seasons. Stanton makes this team terrifying right away and keeps it that way for three years. Plus, trading Hamilton would probably force us to look at seriously extending Choo. So the 2018 Reds might not make the playoffs. Ill settle for a couple rings now.

      • @eric nyc: I agree with a lot of what you say, but the determination that Hamilton is not going to be a high OBP guy in the majors is completely off base. His career OBP is .357, and he’s struggling this year, as a 22 year old in AAA, in 117 PAs. Far too early to decide what you are claiming.

        • @Hank Aarons Teammate: You very well might be right – he could be the next Ricky Henderson. But right now he’s just a prospect. I just don’t think he should be viewed as untouchable the way Walt has regarded him so far. Stanton is crazy young, too, and has already proven his worth in the majors. I’m not itching to trade Hamilton, I just don’t think it would be a tragedy if we did.

    • @Greg Dafler:

      Stanton just recently went on the 15-day DL with a hamstring issue. If a deal is to be made, I doubt it’s before Stanton shows he’s healthy for a couple of weeks. That puts a possible trade into June.

      What is the ETA on Ludwick returning?

      And had a shoulder or back problem before that that kept him out a week. And when the Marlins were in Cincinnati, he was absolutely immobile in RF.

      • @Bill Lack: Should only drive his price down. Even if he’s not 100% until after the AS break, he’d still be the best power hitter the Reds have had since Dunn in his prime.

  12. I’m 100 percent in favor of trading for Stanton for the right package (read: just about anything.) However, the fear of the Cardinals on this thread is ridiculous. Yes, they’re a great organization, but we are too right now. In fact, we just won the Baseball America organization of the year award last year. We too could have a great minor league system, but we chose to trade prospects for proven major leaguers like Choo and Latos. How many times during the Bowden and later years did we hear that we were a couple years from competing, reinforcements were on their way, only for those players to not work out? Trade for Stanton because it helps the Reds for the now and the remainder of his team-friendly contract, not to keep up with the Cardinals

    • @90reds: I disagree. The Reds are a good organization, the Cards a great one. Look at the injuries that the Cards have suffered over the past couple years, and look at how they seem to get better each time. What if the Reds lost Cueto for the year. Can they compete? I hope we don’t have to find out.

  13. After the Marlins series this year I cooled quit a bit on Stanton. But that said, I think a package with the following players would be great:

    Chris Heisey
    Ismael Guillon
    Nick Travieso
    Henry Rodriquez
    Justin Freeman
    Kyle Lotzkar

    I’ll rent a minivan and drive them to Miami myself if it means bring back Stanton.

    • @TC: With Stanton’s injuries last season and this season, I think his trade value for the Fish has declined. They missed the boat to get a maximum return in a trade, unless his value is reestablished, and that clock is ticking right now.

        • @zab1983: If it were 2008 I’d agree with you, but this team is built to win right now and for the next few years. With the Dodgers and Nats and Phillies and soon the Cubs of the NL, that’s all a team in this market gets. You can’t constantly be thinking about how your roster is going to look in 5 years.

        • @eric nyc: No, if you told me stanton meant winning a ring guaranteed then i’d be on board. Also, if money is never going to be a factor for Big Bob then i’d be on board too. In a short playoff type of series i’d almost rather have a guy like dejesus anyway because Stanton probably rocks garbage pitching and hacks at good pitching. lol did that make any sense?

        • @ajswartz888: They also sign the occasional Carlos Beltran and Lance Berkman. If they find themselves in a shootout with us come the trade deadline, don’t be surprised to see them pull off a monster trade with a bunch of that minor league talent. Just not sure why everyone wants us to be so conservative. We’re not going to be the late 90′s Yankees. We have a window and we need to take advantage.

        • @zab1983:
          That’s why the Reds won’t ever get on the Cardinals level. They gut the farm system for their needs. The Cardinals don’t. That’s why they are set up to contend year in and year out for the next decade. Walt Jocketty was always known for that though. Trade the prospects and also just sign free agents. Got run out of STL because he wouldn’t change his attitude.

        • @ajswartz888: You’d rather we didn’t have Mat Latos and Shin Soo Choo right now? You’d rather Alonso was rotting on the bench and Grandal was playing in Louisville? Prospects are just that – prospects. You don’t know the Cardinals are going to contend for the next decade with their prospects. Half of them could flame out. And they’re going to be in a constant arms race with us for the next few years so expect that herd to get thinned with some trades of their own.

        • @eric nyc:
          You are correct. They may trade some of them and thin them out. The thing with them is, they will just replace them with more. That’s what they do. That’s what the Reds need to do. And they can. No reason they can’t do that too.

        • @zab1983: I like Dejesus, I’d hate to see the Reds waste prospect capital on a trade that really only has to be made because Dusty keeps running Cozart out to the two-hole.

          I guess what I’m saying in an either/or situation is: Stanton is a killer move if it were to happen. Dejesus would be be mild escalation and at what cost?

        • @Matt WI: What i’m saying is that Stanton might be a difference maker in a season on a team not destined for playoffs. Reds are going to make playoffs with or without stanton and in the playoffs i want the guy like Dejesus who will generally do the right thing at the plate

        • @zab1983: I hear you. I agree the Reds ought to plan for the playoffs, but I’d still take a guy that makes them legit contenders: A slugger like Stanton, or another great pitcher.

          Dejesus just moves the needle up a bit in what is otherwise a crapshoot anyway. Certainly, no guarantees either way. But, like you said, all depends on the asking.

          As for your question about what to do with Ludwick… I’m not sure Dejesus would be any happier sitting… I’d try to trade Ludwick for some minor league something or other. Nothing against Ludwick, just bad luck with his injury, and if there is an upgradable OF spot, it’s always been his spot that would be upgraded (thanks to Choo being in CF now).

        • @Matt WI: and if you go get stanton and then ludwick comes back healthy what do u do with the extra OF? IF u make the trade for Dejesus i think he would slide nicely into the 4th OF/First pinch hit guy off the bench in postseason. OR if Ludwick doesn’t come back healthy then Dejesus would be a fine fill in out in LF IMO

  14. I’m very dubious of Stanton’s health. Ken Griffey was healthy when he arrived, and you see what it’s like when the basket holding all the eggs is dropped.

    Here’s what Joe Sheehan wrote about this in his newsletter the other day:

    It’s appropriate, then, that the biggest effect of the Stanton injury may not be on the Marlins. The seeming inevitability of a Stanton trade to an MLB team may have been lost. Stanton will certainly have to prove his health, both that of his hamstring and perhaps of that balky shoulder. He’ll miss time, on the heels of missing a month in 2012 to knee surgery. Perhaps all of these things are unrelated, but if you’re a team considering trading three top prospects for Stanton and then having to make him the kind of contract offer that is standard for young stars of his ilk, this track record has to give you pause.

    Something to think about. And subscribe to Sheehan’s newsletter here: http://www.joesheehan.com/

    • @Chris Garber: I agree with this and those who have expressed concern about Stanton’s defense. Stanton has to prove his health (and defense) before the Reds should trade for him. If the Reds are looking for a power-hitting LF, Josh Willingham would be considerably cheaper from a player standpoint and possibly even more reliable than Stanton.

      • @Steve Mancuso: I’m all for Willingham, but Stantons’ ceiling is an MVP and he could hit that ceiling in a Reds uniform. As far as trade chips, I’m not sure Willingham would be THAT much cheaper.

        • @eric nyc: Willingham is under team control only through 2014. Stanton is through 2016. Willingham is already being paid fully, where Stanton is league minimum through the end of this year. I bet Willingham will be traded for one top prospect. With Stanton, load up the bus.

        • @Steve Mancuso: Really? Just one prospect for a very good, cheap player signed for 1.75 more years?

          I’d be surprised. And if you’re right, he’d be a Red tomorrow if I were in charge.

        • @Hank Aarons Teammate: I wouldn’t say he was cheap. The Reds passed on $21/3 million when Willingham was on the market the last time. They were in negotiations. Instead the Reds signed Ryan Ludwick for $2 million/1 year and that worked out well.

          Willingham signed with the Twins in December 2011, just before the Dodgers sale to the Magic Johnson group in March 2012. My theory is that the Dodgers sale (March 29) was what triggered the recent spending spree by the Reds’ ownership. Right after that the Reds extended Votto (April 3) and Phillips (April 10).

          If the Willingham negotiations had occurred after the Dodgers sale, I think he’d be a Reds player right now.

      • @Steve Mancuso: I like Willingham, but not for $14M next year, plus prospects.

        The prospects I have listed would probably not be missed (except perhaps Travieso, but I’m not a fan of that kid).

        Chris Heisey
        Ismael Guillon
        Nick Travieso
        Henry Rodriquez
        Justin Freeman
        Kyle Lotzkar

        • @TC: That’s right. They would not be missed, which means they would not be welcomed by any other team…

        • @Hank Aarons Teammate: Just listing players in that article. I was SHOCKED it didn’t include names like Lutz, Hamilton, Cingrani, et al. The only two names that would be missed are Robert Stephenson and Amir Garret, who I think are the two pitching prospects on the farm.

  15. great insight Steve. Thanks

    Funny comment Hank: “If I were the Marlins, I’d tell you no and then change my phone number!”

    I would still like to see Mesaraco play some LF on days that he is not catching. I am really liking his approach at the plate this year and do not like our line up as well when he is on the bench.

    • @reaganspad: I had considered that possibililty also, but simply rejected the idea since Dusty would not be able to wrap his arms around the possibility. Although Meso has never played any defensive position other than C in his professional career, I think he has the athletic prowess to handle LF and it would give him more consistent plate appearances this season while Ludwick is out. I think structuring his LF appearances against LHP so XP continues to get his appearances against RHP with Meso catching his 1/5 or 2/5 games against RHP (although a more even split would be ideal) once Hanigan comes back would be best, but that would also upset Dusty’s cathing rotation where Meso can only catch certain pitchers.

      • @Shchi Cossack: Interesting. I’m actually really disappointed with Mesoraco’s results. I like that he doesn’t swing at everything…a lot. But he’s showing no pop. His SLG is .315. I mean, I want him catching half time when Hanigan’s back, but he must do better.

  16. St.Louis certainly is a large market with 30,000 plus in the park for Monday to Thursday games. The Reds have solved the leadoff position and cleanup hitter is all that’s needed to make them a dominant team. They should do what they have to do to get either Stanton, Willingham or Dejesus.

    • @Redsfanx: I didn’t catch the totals in Chicago, but the Cubs didn’t look like a big market team. And a quarter of the fans in the seats wore red. GABPN.

  17. Thanks Shchi Cossack,

    The other thing I would explore is playing Leake in Left Field some days. You use him as a pinch hitter and a pinch runner, I would try to get more out of him like a college team would.

    He is a great hitter and a terrific athlete. I am just not sure his best use is starting pitcher.

    But he is a great baseball player and right now I would be trying to utilize that.

    I know Lutz is not raking right now, but he can move and I do like watching him also. I am just thinking being down 2 major league left fielders, I would want more options if I were managing

  18. The comment that the Cards don’t gut their farm system and the Reds do…is totally out of line. The Cards have a WAY better system, to the extent that when they need something, the guy at AAA is often better than what they could get on the open market!

    I mean, really. If you’re the Cards and Beltran goes down and you need an OF, do you trade, or just bring up the best hitting prospect in the game (Oscar Taveras)? Do you sign Lohse for a lot, or just pitch Miller/Lynn? Do you trade for a pitcher if, say, Wainwright gets hurt, or bring up Carlos Martinez, who was a top 5 prospect a short time ago?

    The Reds had no top-shelf pitching prospect anywhere near the majors when they made the Latos deal. That’s why they did it.

    What the Reds really need is to draft better and sign better. The Cards just make better selections along with Latin American signings.

  19. The Reds should do almost anything they can to make this trade. I don’t think they’ll trade Billy.

  20. Also, the trades for Latos and Choo are totally dissimilar. They emptied the top prospects for Latos because he’s under team control for a while. Choo’s gonna make 15 million next year, so he’s a rental. The Reds did not trade any top prospects in the Choo deal. I don’t care if Gregorious is hitting a thousand right now.

  21. After seeing how disenterested Stanton looked here a couple weeks back when Miami was in town, i am not as hot on him as a player. I think he made like 4 errors in the field that series. Guy was totally mailing it in and not playing like a pro who has a shot at a 100 million dollar payday.

    • @earl: Yup. Like I said earlier, I really cooled on him when he was in town. He looked horrible. But I’d still give up the 6 players I listed, none of whom will likely pan out to be major league starters (except Travieso).

    • @earl: In his defense, playing for team and a franchise like the Marlins is probably pretty deflating. I know he’s a professional but I can understand that combined with some of his injuries maybe his motivation just isn’t there.

      I think the biggest worry is still his health. I wouldn’t be surprised if, assuming he’s in good health, he starts hitting like the Stanton everyone expects wherever he is traded.

  22. One more time, if we get Stanton, then what happens with Ludwick once he comes back. I don’t see the Reds benching $7 million in Ludwick. I don’t see us benching Stanton. Regardless of the prospects which would have to be included, which will probably have to be a bundle, a deal would probably have to include Choo or Bruce. I don’t see us trading for a LF before Ludwick comes back, only in case of the need for a “last minute” attempt and need, unless it was to include Choo or Bruce.

  23. Calling my shot now… Chapman and Ludwick to either the Dodgers, Yankees, or some other team that spends an absurd quantity of money who won’t be too hurt by the attachment of Ludwick to Chapman, in exchange for some prospects.

    The Reds then use that cash saved ($5m from Chapman, $7m from Ludwick) to cover the cost of re-signing Choo, who we hope loves winning and playing ahead of Votto enough that he takes a small discount to stay in Cincinnati at like ~$12m/yr for 3 years (OBP isn’t something that really dies with age, right?).

    Then the Reds then aren’t paying 3 closers, we won’t have to worry about Dusty continuing to waste one of the best arms in baseball, as well as they get to keep Choo for LF if Hamilton is indeed ready to come to the majors next league (even though he’s hitting worse than Cozart this year).

    • @ToddAlmighty: interesting. So’s this: the Red Sox just had their closer go down with an injury. Not sure they don’t have someone at Pawtuckett, but still.

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