2013 Reds / Titanic Struggle Recap

Titanic Struggle Recap: Two Out of Three Ain’t Bad

Let’s recap today’s titanic struggle….

FINAL
Cincinnati 6
Washington 3

W: J. Cueto (1-0)
L: S. Strasburg (1-1)
S: A. Chapman (2)
BOX SCORE

POSITIVES
–The Reds won a second series in a row against a tough team.

–Another 2 hit day for Jay Bruce. I believe he is officially up and running.

–Reds also saw two hits each from Choo, Phillips, and Paul.

–Johnny Cueto did not have his best stuff today, but he still ended up with a very solid start to garner his first win of the year.

–For the first time, we got to see the Marshall-Broxton-Chapman combo. It went well.

NEGATIVES
–While the three relievers pitched well, it would have been nice if the Reds didn’t have to use all of them as it would be nice to have them around for St. Louis.

NOT-SO-RANDOM THOUGHTS
–Under no circumstances do you expect to be 4-2 after playing these two teams. You just don’t. Even if you are as good as the Reds figure to be, you hope for .500. Winning both series is an excellent early sign.

–Joey Votto is still very clearly not hitting on all cylinders, but he’s still getting on base. Once he does get going, this team might be scary for a while.

–The Reds scored 27 runs over the last three days. They are currently averaging 6 1/3 runs per game. I told you they’d hit better this year.

–It was awfully, awfully good to see Sean Marshall pitch and pitch well today. I look forward to seeing more of him in St. Louis.

–Now it’s on to St. Louis for a renewal of what has been a very good rivalry. If the Reds win 2 of 3 there, they will be off to a truly fantastic start.

 

 

Source: FanGraphs

67 thoughts on “Titanic Struggle Recap: Two Out of Three Ain’t Bad

  1. Boy, this looked like a good game; I wish I didn’t have to work on Sunday. I like to look past the W or L, even though that is first priority. Past winning, I loved to see we scored 6 runs without hitting one home run “and” against a top pitcher.

  2. Actually, I’m glad the game I went to this weekend was the middle one. Even though they lost, the game was a blast.

    I only caught the second half today. Robinson may be this year’s XP. We’ll see.

    • @TC: We were able to make it down for the whole series and really enjoyed every game, but I agree with you that despite the loss the second game was the most outstanding. I told my wife that I think it’s the best game that I’ve ever seen in person.

  3. Pitching and defense are truly important. Cozart has looked very solid in the field and I couldn’t be happier with Choo. Given what the national writers were saying about his defense, I was expecting a one-legged Dave Kingman in CF. . . . I’m hoping that XP gets starts in games 2 and 3 of the WLB series.

  4. Yesterday I said to Dusty that Reds were lucky not to face Strasburg since ‘10. He said, ’he’s lucky he didn’t face us.’ Dusty was right.

    — ctrent (@ctrent) April 7, 2013

    This is awesome.

  5. Great game. Lots of heroes. Derrick Robinson is fast. I’m not sure if it mattered, but on the pitch before his hit, Robinson squared to bunt, which brought Zimmerman in closer to the plate. Maybe that enabled Robinson’s slash hit to get through.

    Dusty Baker played Xavier Paul today. According to Marty, it was on a hunch that he’d be able to handle Strasburg’s fastball better. Paul’s first hit was a grounder back to the mound (on a curve ball) that Strasburg deflected and the 2B had no play. XP scored a run on Jay Bruce’s double. Paul singled in his second AB off of a 96-mph fastball. He made an out his third AB. In his final AB vs. Strasburg, XP hit a double-play ball to the 2B, but Espinosa had to throw home to try to cut off the go-ahead run. Paul did make one great play in the OF, late in the game. All-in-all, probably a successful move by Baker, and I’m glad to see Paul get a chance to play. But let’s not go overboard (as Marty did) that this move proved to be brilliant.

    Baker also pinch hit Robinson to lead off the decisive 6th inning. This move, unambiguously, paid off. Nice call by Baker, there.

    • @Steve Mancuso: Not that bold of a move. Lefties had more than a 100 point better average against Strasburg last year. It’s why Robinson pinch hit instead of Heisey most likely.

      • @eric nyc: Agreed. I was trying to say something nice about Dusty.

        I would like to see XP get more opportunity against RHP, though. Heisey just hasn’t been that impressive (only four games caveat duly noted) to dictate that he should play against the platoon splits.

        • @Steve Mancuso: After briefly exhibiting a more selective, professional approach to hitting in his early AB, Heisey looks to have reverted to his ubiqutous, swing from the heals approach to hitting, or his earlier selectivity may have just been illusory. I have been a pretty strong Heisey supporter, at least for a significant utility role on the major league roster, but Heisey is a dead red hitter and has not adjusted to major league pitching as the pitchers have adjusted to his hitting. Heisey is still fairly young (28) and has 3 years of player control remaining, so he may have some limited value. It may be time to move on to another option, especially with significant playing time available even in a straight platoon situation with XP. If the Reds could get a return for an older, RH OF with a more drastic split and less team control to get through 2013 with a LF platoon, that might be a beneficial consideration.

    • @Steve Mancuso: It looks on the replay like Zimmerman would have caught Robinson’s ground ball if he hadn’t moved in. It’s nice to see speed put to good use.

      I’d have no problem with seeing more use of Xavier Paul.

    • @Steve Mancuso: Derrick Robinson has the speed that Dusty tends to associate with a leadoff hitter, and we saw in this game what that can accomplish. He showed the ability to go from first to third on a long single, to score on an infield groundout, and probably the speed to steal bases. In his debut he barely reached on a fielding error that would’ve been an out for anybody else on the Reds. As a result I think we can expect to see Robinson lead off innings (as a pinch hitter) a lot. Fine with me.

      The other lefties, Jack Hannahan and Xavier Paul, seem to be trusted more to pinch hit with runners on base. It seems nice for Dusty that this year’s bench can be better split into ideal roles rather than a category of guys who can hit (Heisey, XP, Navarro) vs guys who can’t (Cairo, Valdez, Harris, so on).

    • @Steve Mancuso:

      Great game. Lots of heroes. Derrick Robinson is fast. I’m not sure if it mattered, but on the pitch before his hit, Robinson squared to bunt, which brought Zimmerman in closer to the plate. Maybe that enabled Robinson’s slash hit to get through.

      It definitely had an effect. From my seats, if Zimmerman hadn’t moved in following Robinson’s fake bunt, he fields that ball fairly easily (for him). The fake bunt had a HUGE effect on the inning, IMO.

  6. Marty said on the radio after the game that Baker had told him that if he had to use either Broxton or Chapman today, that those players would have to be held out of the first game against the Cardinals. The Reds had a three-run lead heading into the eighth inning and Baker used both Broxton and Chapman, who presumably will now not pitch tomorrow. Chapman was used to save a three-run lead.

    Statistics from the past fifty years show that teams with three-run leads going into the ninth win 98% of the time. I wish Baker had used someone else in the bullpen – anyone, really – or Broxton for a second inning instead of Chapman. If the Reds have a one-run lead or a tie game tomorrow in St. Louis, Chapman would be far more valuable then.

    Not really blaming Baker for that. My guess is the vast majority of managers would have brought their closer in that situation. That doesn’t make it right. It just proves how terrible strategic decisions are dictated by the statistic of the save. Teams with four-run leads win 99% of their games. If the Reds would have had a four-run lead, I guarantee that Chapman wouldn’t have been called on.

    • @Steve Mancuso: There is no doubt. Simon was warming. Frazier’s ball goes out, Simon’s in.

      Well, at least the Cards’ series isn’t important. No problem having Chapman sit out there.

      On the other hand, if Chapman didn’t pitch in games with a 3 run lead in the 9th, he’d only pitch 40 innings per year.

    • @Steve Mancuso: And of course, Broxton was re-signed to close games when Chapman couldn’t, but they’re both out of the picture for Monday…. Would Dusty trust Marshall to close a game? Back to Hoover?

    • @Steve Mancuso: Not questioning your recounting of what Marty said; but, I suspect there was “Dustish” language somewhere in the exchange.

      Neither Broxton nor Chapman worked Friday; both worked Saturday and Sunday. Thus, I’d suspect what Dusty was trying convey was that if both worked today, one of the two would not be available Monday (because he would hold him back for possible duty on Tuesday)

    • @Steve Mancuso: I’m with Jim, I didn’t hear what Dusty said, but I don’t believe that Broxton is unavailable tomorrow. He’s only thrown a few pitches in each of the last 2 games, his arm is healthy again, why would he be unavailable.

      I would not have had a problem with using Broxton to pitch the 9th today to save Chapman. Overall Dusty goes with the “one reliever per inning” thing way too often.

      I would have had a problem with Simon coming in. I don’t believe that leaves the Reds with a 98% chance to win, not with the Nats lineup. Suzuki was murdering the ball all day, and once he got on base against Chapman, all that was needed for Werth to come up as the tying run was for Span, a good OBP guy, to get on base.
      Why give the Nats a chance come back ?

  7. I wonder if Baker (or someone in the organization) would have gotten a call from Chap’s agent if he was not used in a save situation when he was available? I wonder about such things, I do, and the perverse incentives they create…

    • @RC: I sort of try to follow such things too. But I doubt it this as this incentive is not in his contract.

      However, I wouldn’t doubt Chapman’s agent was involved in the decision to return him to closing because Chapman needs the full year of MLB service time to make make himself arbitration eligible at the end of this year which busts his contract by making his agreed to 2014 salary into a bonus and stipulates he becomes an arbitration candidate for 2014. So, it wouldn’t have been a good thing if he ended up back in Louisville working on his starter skills.

      Note that nothing changes about how long he remains under team control if the contract is busted after this season. He just becomes much more expensive by being arbitration eligible for the next 3 years instead of locked into his original contract until after the 2015 season.

  8. I really liked that opposite field double Jay Bruce hit in the first, especially with two strikes. I’m taking that at bat as a sign he is paying a bit of attention to Joey Votto and probably a sign that extreme shift some clubs put on him might be shifting away.

    Strasburg didn’t want ANYTHING to do with Joey Votto, especially in that first at bat.

  9. I missed the game to my lifetime hobby of competitive paintball in Louisville, but I was checking my phone quite often.

    Only worry from me is that Cueto has already given up two HRs to guys who aren’t really power hitters. Maybe he is just shaking off the rust, but he still owns a 2.7 something ERA so I can’t complain.

  10. Loved going to the game today (my first of the year!). Great weather and great baseball. I’d agree that one of my favorite parts of the game was Bruce’s opposite field double. I was somewhat shocked (pleasantly so) to see him hit the other way!

  11. I brought this up in the game thread and no one repied. I really doubt Votto will hit even 20 homers this year.

  12. Great homestand… and the team was close to being undefeated. If this team takes 2 out of 3 against the Cards with Votto clearly not at the top of his game, they are going to be amazing when he kicks it in gear. Gotta love the start from this team already.

  13. It was a great series! I’m so glad we were there for it and that the weather was simply spectacular. GABP is really a great place for a family!

    Three great games for sure. The only quibble from today was that I was surprised we didn’t dust Harper. Seems to me that the message should be very clear that you don’t throw at Joey MVP and not get your best on his backside very soon. Maybe Dusty’s just patient – like with that clown from Cleveland last year!

  14. Anyone notice Frazier’s start? This popped out to me!
    Frazier began Sunday’s game hitting .500 (11-22) with three homers, two doubles, five runs scored and eight RBIs. Good to very good defense plus these numbers. How much did Todd learn from Scotty? If he turns into an above average third baseman, the arc of this team just got a lot higher. He will come down to earth some day, but I’m enjoying the ride so far

    • @SFredsfan: Noticed and its exciting! But Sadly … there was a really obnoxious fan yelling down at Bryce Harper today during the 8th about how Frazier is better than him and that he, being Harper, sucks.

  15. Was at the game today… (Bleacher seats way up on the Left field side)… Was amazing weather and day at the ballpark! Love seeing the park so full.

    I know I wasn’t very close up.. but Votto did not seem to be facing Strasburg very well. He only got on base when the Nationals went to their Bullpen with a walk. Does he have a bad track record vs him?

    Nationals defense was pretty lousy. I was kind of surprised that more of those bobbles that ended up with Reds runners on base or extra bases did not count as errors. I saw someone make a twitter comment about how Nationals should have “BobbleHands” instead of “Bobbleheads” .. I would have to agree after watching today’s performance.

    I also liked the fact that all the runs scored today were without HRs. So Friday’s game shows Reds can play long ball .. and today’s game showed they can win playing small ball.

    Overall, really exciting for my first game of the year. :)

    • @Love4Reds: Nice account of your great time at the game. I believe Strasburg had only pitched once before against the Reds so there’s no real history between him and Votto.

  16. Took my son to his first game today. Little guy was so tired, he slept in my arms through the last two innings until the fireworks started shooting off. I can’t wait to take him back for another game.

  17. Btw, since no one else pointed this out… Dusty batted XP between Choo and Votto. Three lefties straight in a row. How unlike him.

    • @Love4Reds: Dusty might rightly argue that it wouldn’t matter today because the Nats didn’t have any lefties available in the bullpen. Duke is their only LH reliever and he threw 60 pitches in the blowout.

      • @Abel: I’m sure that was his rationale. Still nice to know its based on “something” as opposed to just absolute resolution to never bat lefties in a row.. let alone 3 of them.

  18. Great win today for the Reds. Cueto made the one mistake to Sizuki. Great job of Reds collecting hits and driving runners in when they were in scoring position. This is the 6th quality overall start for the Reds. Leake a little shaky, but overall not bad. Leake does not throw real hard, so his ball needs to have some movement and he needs to keep the ball down, down, down, especially at a hitter friendly park like Great American Park.

    • @JEFFMO: Cueto was really extremely shaky today. 10 baserunners in 6 innings, it wasn’t just one bad pitch.

      Also, nitpick: Leake’s start wasn’t a quality start.

  19. I would like to see Mes start catching Latos tomorrow. We know he’ll never catch Arroyo and Bailey seems to be a different pitcher w hangman, so to get Mes some ABs, Latos makes sense to me

    • @RiverCity Redleg: Agree with you that if Meso is to get two days a week on a regular basis, the second guy he catches is going to have to be Latos. Arroyo/ Hanigan seemed to be etched in stone; they aren’t going to mess with Cueto; and Bailey seemingly looks more like a top ace every time he and Hanigan are paired.

      • @OhioJim: We’re guaranteed to hear about how Mes can’t hold runners then, because teams can run at will on Latos, regardless of who is catching.

        Still, any playing time for Mes is a good deal, particularly if he gets to catch the #2 pitcher. I suspect Hanigan will be losing some starts here and there anyway. Talent wins out in the long run, and Mes has already flashed a skill set that Hanigan can’t match in the limited at bats he’s got. He hits the ball with authority w/good on-base skills. If his defense is as improved as it looks, it’s just a matter of time.

        • @CP: Yes, One person’s drop (if there would be one with Latos/ Meso) is another’s learning curve. And, if they are going to risk that, the #2 slot seems a good spot to do so since Bailey pitches like a 1b to 2++ when he is with Hanigan in the 4 slot versus maybe going all down hill after the 2 slot.

        • @CP: Hah Hah, hah hah, hah, hah. There’s no way it’s any matter of time. Hanigan will be the regular catcher this year, even if Mesoraco tears the cover off the ball and plays good defense. Remember Rolen vs Frazier last year?

        • @Hank Aarons Teammate: I didn’t say it would occur quickly…

          But I think it’s reasonable that Mes gets 3/5 starts by the end of the year. It’ll take a lot of production from Mesoraco (or extremely little from Hanigan).

        • @CP: Or an injury which certainly wouldn’t be unusual for a catcher. Even a relatively minor thing but severe enough to put Hanigan on the DL for 2-3 weeks could open the door if Meso really is ready to pounce.

        • @Hank Aarons Teammate: Mes only started 48 games last year, but for a few months he was catching 2 of 5 starters. One was Leake, the other was Homer. Then Homer pitched better with Hanigan.

          Hanigan wears down catching 4 of 5. Mes will be catching 2 of 5 at some point, unless he gets demoted again (unlikely) so it’s an interesting question as to who the other starting pitcher will be.

  20. OK, I just got home from spending the weekend in Cincinnati taking in the Reds/Nats series and watching the Super Todd show. The head-to-head sophomore battles of Todd Frazier vs the two 2012 ROY are now complete.

    For the 3 game series involving the Reds’ Todd Frazier against the Halos’ Mike Trout…

    Mike Trout:
    .267/.313/.400 with 5 SO, 0 HR, 0 RBI, 2 R, 0 SB

    Todd Frazier:
    .333/.333/.667 with 3 SO, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R, 0 SB

    For the 3 game series involving the Reds’ Todd Frazier against the Nats’ Bryce Harper…

    Bryce Harper
    .214/.214/.385 with 3 SO, 1 HR, 2 RBI, 1 R, 0 SB

    Todd Frazier:
    .615/.667/1.154 with 1 SO, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 3 R, 1 SB

    ESPN, and every other national sports media outlet, can go choke on a big, sour, dill
    pickle.

    Now, someone please explain to me why Todd Frazier can’t hit cleanup and please don’t give me some gobblygook about being too young or too inexperienced. In the first 6 games, Frazier had a total of 6 LOB, that’s total for all 6 games! During those same 6 games he had 9 RBI. Frazier is not going to maintain an OPS of 1.439 for the season (I mean, he can’t, can he?) and BP has had a very good start also with a .913 OPS. Bruce is also starting to find his hitting stroke. I’m just trying to imagine what Todd Frazier would do with Choo (.516 OBP), BP (.357 OBP) & Votto (.467 OBP) hitting in front of him and Bruce hitting behind him.

    On another note, how do the Nats get by with throwing AT Votto, without Harper or Zimmerman being absolutely drilled? I mean, Dusty is suppose to be old school and believes in the old school way of doing things, right? I’ll even give the Nats the benefit of the doubt in hitting Choo, although I think that those were message pitches too, since Choo now takes getting on base as righteous gospel and will gladly accept a HBP. We didn’t see Cozart or Hanigan get drilled. We saw Choo and Votto get drilled.

    • @Shchi Cossack: On the dust off pitches…. I was wondering the same; but, I also felt Tim McClelland sent a pretty loud message when he sent Votto on down to first base because the replay seemed to show very clearly that the pitch missed him by a couple of inches at least. When Votto was still on the ground and McClelland was point to 1B, it looked like Joey was say “it hit me??” not “it hit me!!!”.

      Excuse the reference for those who hate soccer but I saw McClelland’s action as a preemptive yellow card equivalent saying his wasn’t going to have that in his game.

      BTW, per the replay the pitch did hit Choo.

    • @Shchi Cossack: I believe that entering the season many of us had concerns that Todd Frazier might regress a bit – maybe he couldn’t hit as well again. Maybe Dusty had that same concern over the winter.

      On the other hand the offense has been excellent since Phillips moved to the cleanup spot (although Phillips’ effect on that is debatable) – they’ve been on a roll – and I don’t think it seems logical (or likely) for Dusty to mess with what’s working. For now, even with his great start, Todd Frazier seemingly needs to wait until Dusty sees a need for lineup tinkering. Frazier has been great and just needs to wait for a chance that should arise eventually.

      On a related note, Dusty apparently told reporters that he wanted to give Frazier a day off on Sunday (and start the lefty, Hannahan, against Strasburg) but he changed his mind because Frazier was hitting so well. That seems like a vote of confidence in Frazier.

    • Cossack: ESPN, and every other national sports media outlet, can go choke on a big, sour, dill pickle.

      You’ve got that right. The Reds and their players will only get their fair share of attention by winning a World Series. This year would be a nice one to do it.

  21. And speaking of Choo, would a 3 year contract at $13.5MM per year and a 4th year club option for $15MM or a $4.5MM buyout be doable for the Reds and enough to keep him with the Reds?

  22. “Johnny Cueto did not have his best stuff today, but he still ended up with a very solid start to garner his first win of the year.”

    This is something I love about Cueto. When he doesn’t have his best stuff/command, he battles. After the bad 2nd inning, it was a challenge for him to go 6 and only allow 3 today. He did it, as he almost always manages on a “bad” day.

    • @pinson343:

      Johnny Cueto sure has come a long way from the tempermental, easily-flustered knucklehead who needed 100 pitches to get through 4 innings, hasn’t he?

      In a way, the same can be said about Homer Bailey, although I remember the biggest offenders being Cueto and Volquez. Thankfully, we kept the good one of that pair when we made the trade for Latos.

  23. It remains to be seen, but I am wondering if Hamilton will be ready by next year, and how good he will be? I hate to see Choo go somewhere else…..

    • @JEFFMO:

      I’m a fan of keeping Choo. You simply can’t let a known commodity like that get away.

      To tell you the truth, I’m starting to wonder if moving Hamilton to the OF was the right move. Wouldn’t it be a lot better to look at trading Cozart, putting Hamilton at SS, and then filling LF with a power hitter?

      But failing that, I’m ok with Hamilton being CF, Choo in LF and running this lineup out there:

      LF Choo
      CF Hamilton
      1B Votto
      3B Frazier
      RF Bruce
      2B Phillips
      SS Cozart
      C Hani/Mez
      P

      Hamilton can bunt for hits to move Choo up, and if Choo doesn’t get on, Hamilton is free to use his speed on the basepaths. This is assuming that Dusty wouldn’t consider batting Choo directly ahead of Votto and having Hamilton lead off, which would probably be more ideal.

    • @JEFFMO: Every season BHam has his detractors who question his ability to perform at the next level and every season he has made the necessary adjustments, quickly, and simply excelled. The 2013 spring training was an eye opener for BHam, especially after all the hype during the past year.

      Hey Reds fans, don’t look now, but after 3 games (he sat out 1 game with a gimpy shoulder) & 11 AB in AAA, BHam is hitting .364/.364/.727 with a robust 1.091 OPS, oh and 3 SB in 3 attempts. He has only 1 SO in 11 AB, which was his major problem early in ST.

  24. Heard on the Nats broadcast that in 3 games, the Reds only had two true 1-2-3 innings. (There was another when Heisey hit into a DP on Friday) I know it’s early but that is a huge difference from last year. If they can keep that up it’s going to result in a lot more runs.

  25. Ah, the national media. Jay Jaffe over at Sports Illustrated has a post up talking about how “aces” performed on Sunday. In his chart and article he mentions 14(!) pitchers but somehow fails to squeeze in a mention of Mr. Cueto. Johnny’s going to have to go undefeated, strike out 250, and lead us to the WS before he sniffs a Cy Young.

    Here’s the post if you want to go leave comments:
    http://mlb.si.com/2013/04/07/sunday-bloody-sunday-for-many-a-frontline-starter/?sct=hp_t12_a6&eref=sihp

    • @Eric the Red:

      It’s actually kind of a good thing Cueto didn’t get mentioned, because the point of the article was frontline starters who got beat up yesterday. Cueto turned in a quality start, so he misses the ‘got beat up’ distinction.

      • @CI3J: Except later in the article he talks about aces who didn’t get beat up, like Verlander–who also gave up three runs in the second. Cueto, who has been one of the best pitchers in the NL over the past two years, should certainly have been mentioned. Maybe noting that he battled on a day he didn’t have his best stuff, saving the bullpen and turning in his second quality start (I hate that stat, but writers like it…) against one of the best teams in MLB. That’s an Ace start, right there. Oh, and that’s two quality starts against two of the top offenses in MLB, in GABP. It’s ridiculous how little attention is paid to Cueto.

  26. First game yesterday of my “Baker’s Dozen”…(ugh, it hurt me to buy THAT package of games ), couple of thoughts:

    – Cueto wasn’t sharp, but he was “grinding”. It seemed like he couldn’t put guys away when he had them 0-2 and seemed like he gave up a number of hits on 3-2.

    – You can already make the statement that the Reds bench this year is heads and shoulders better than last years.

    – I love Choo…he’s a gamer. And he may not be Drew Stubbs in CF, but I personally think he has a better arm than Stubbs.

  27. All I really want to know right now is who did the Reds tick off in the MLB offices to earn this schedule this month? Two presumptive division leaders and the arch rival on their Opening Day? Walt lose some sort of bet to somebody? And yet… they are kicking tail. Keep it up.

    • @Matt WI:

      Better to get the tough stretch out of the way early before any big injuries happen. One reason the Reds were able to do so well last year was because they lost Votto during an easy stretch of games. Had they lost him with the schedule they have this month, they probably wouldn’t have fared as well.

      Of course, the Reds have already lost Ludwick, but I think they will be just fine without him. If not, they could always make a trade before they fall in too big of a hole, right?

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