2012 Reds

Homer Bailey contract status

Homer Bailey (26) is entering his second of three arbitration years. He is eligible to become a free agent after the 2014 season. Homer has submitted a 2013 salary proposal to the arbitrator for $5.8 million and the club has filed for $4.75 million. Either way, the 2004 first-round draft pick from Texas is set to receive a big raise, having made $2.4 million last year. Pitching a no-hitter can’t hurt. Arbitration hearings are scheduled between Feb. 4-20 and the arbitrator chooses one of the two amounts and that’s a binding decision.

Frequently, clubs reach agreement with players in the period between filing and the hearing. Once the two numbers are set it’s pretty easy to find the mid-point. Agreements also avoid what can be an unpleasant experience as the clubs generally present evidence as to why the player has less value than he thinks. The Reds haven’t gone to an arbitration hearing since 2004.

Mark Sheldon had a chance to talk with Homer Bailey in Hamilton at the caravan stop this weekend. They discussed the pitcher’s contract status, both short term and longer. It sounds like both Homer and GM Walt Jocketty expect to reach an agreement on 2013, possibly this week.

In a few weeks, representatives for the club and the player could be locking horns during arbitration. But both Bailey and Jocketty were hopeful that it wouldn’t come to that.

“The Reds had seven guys going through arbitration this year so it’s been a slower process,” Bailey said. “I can’t tell you a lot of details about it. It’s more between myself and the organization. It’s going to get done. We’re in no real hurry. It will all work itself out.”

Of greater interest to Reds’ fans are the prospects for a longer deal that would include some of Homer’s free agent years. On that topic, it sounds like not much progress has been reached to this point. But Homer seemed open to the possibility.

“Nothing has been mentioned at all,” Bailey said. “If it happens, it does. I don’t know what their thoughts on it are. If it was ever brought up or brought to the table to us, it would be something to consider. I haven’t really heard anything. I’m just getting prepared for the season. It’s all I can do.”

Read the entire piece by Sheldon, it includes a lengthy discussion with Homer about his 2012 season and new diet/training regimen and more of his thoughts about staying with the Reds long term.

41 thoughts on “Homer Bailey contract status

  1. I am an unabashed Homer Bailey fan. He got rushed, and staggered for a few years as a result, but he showed multiple flashes of brilliance last year. His home/road splits are a concern–road opponents slugged .296, but .526 at GABP. But he was great in September, allowing only a .463 OPS.

    Homer had a .760 OPS with Mesoraco catching, and .639 with Hanigan, which may help explain his September surge. (In case anybody has missed it, Ryan Hanigan is a great, great defensive catcher. Resigning Hanigan should be a major priority.)

    I’m all in for signing Homer for an extension. While there is always an injury risk with pitchers, Homer seems to understand the conditioning/nutrition commitment he needs to make, and, assuming the money works, he is as safe a risk as the Reds are likely to find.

  2. @Big Ed:
    I feel the same as you, maybe even moreso about Homer Bailey. I think he excelled most of last year. Finally got over the hump. The trade for Latos made Bailey step up his game and he responded well. I think the Reds can afford a 4 yr/ $29MM deal for Bailey. That would cover two years of arbitration and two years of free agency eligility. That would be fair to both sides. It would break down to approx. $5.25MM in 2013, $6.75MM in 2014, $8MM in 2015, and $9MM in 2016. There would be a nice raise for each year. This wouldn’t break the Piggy bank. Then turn the attention to a Latos extension. If the Reds wait until next year to extend Latos, they also potentially will have to address Cueto’s contract situation at the same time. And if the Reds wait on signing Latos long-term, if he has another good year pitching, he’ll be more expensive next winter. I’d like to see both Bailey and Latos extended soon.

  3. I would be shocked if both Homer and Latos don’t have deals in place for 4-5 years before opening day. I think our owner sees where this franchise is and what it takes to win. You add to that the increased revenue they are getting from the new MLB TV deals, plus the new deal the Reds will be getting on local tv games in a season or two and I think there is no question both will get inked soon.

  4. @WVRedlegs: I don’t think that 4yr/$29M gets it done though. Looking at the deal that Texas made with Harrison, I think it raises the bar for contract extensions to arbitration eligable starting pitchers. Harrison is LH and that works in his favor. His track record is also a little better than Bailey’s. That said he is a year further removed from free-agency than Bailey. Cueto’s deal from 2011 was 4/$27M… I’m not an expert but I expect the number would be more like $36M to $40M for a four-year extension for Homer.

  5. So far, in my opinion, the “Most Insane Free Agent Contract” award goes to the Dodgers and their signing of Zach Greinke to a 6yr/$147-Million deal. Greinke is a pretty darn good pitcher but that’s $24.5-Million for a guy that doesn’t quite crack my top 10 starting pitchers in MLB. I’d be salavating if I were Kershaw’s agent right now. I’d be asking for 6yrs/$180-Million.

  6. @WVRedlegs: I think your 4/$29M breakdown sounds fair to me. 4/$40M would only work if you assume a significant performance improvement. I wouldn’t be surprised if Homer improves dramatically in the coming years, but given that a) he’ll be 27 this year, and b) he’s generally inconsistent, I certainly wouldn’t assume it.

  7. I was looking at Homer’s numbers from ’11 and ’12 and expected to see a big difference, but other than ERA and the numbers you’d expect to increase due to throwing about 70 more innings, his numbers were very, very similar. His WHIP, P/PA, P/IP, P/GS, K/9,BB/9,OBP,SLG were all nearly the same from ’11 to ’12.

    Very consistent….not sure why he had such a dramatic drop in ERA.

    • I was looking at Homer’s numbers from ’11 and ’12 and expected to see a big difference, but other than ERA and the numbers you’d expect to increase due to throwing about 70 more innings, his numbers were very, very similar. His WHIP, P/PA, P/IP, P/GS, K/9,BB/9,OBP,SLG were all nearly the same from ’11 to ’12.Very consistent….not sure why he had such a dramatic drop in ERA.

      Bailey’s ERA went down 0.75, but his FIP only went down 0.09 from his 2011 FIP. His xFIP actually increased 0.19 over the previous year. I think the question here is really why his ERA in previous years were so high relative to his FIP and xFIP. Those figures have had him in the high 3’s low 4’s the past couple of seasons.

      As for why it didn’t help his home/road splits…I think a couple of things. One, his park does have an impact on it. He pitched 5 games in GABP where he allowed 2 or 3 homeruns in a game. All other games 0 or 1. Outside of GABP, he only had 1 multi-homerun allowed game (in Yankee Stadium.) In those 5 games at GABP (15% of his starts/13% of his innings), he allowed 12 of his 26 homeruns (46% of his HR.)

      Two, I think some of it is luck/small sample size. He did have good games at home and bad on the road. It seems that during his good stretches, he had more road games than home goames, and vice versa.

  8. Homer is a good pitcher, no doubt. I think he can be a #1. But currently he is good for 5-7 blowups a year. Plus, he is an average pitcher in his home park.

    Cueto 2010:
    12-7 Record, 3.64 ERA, 31 Games, 185 Innings, 56 BB, 138 SO, 112 ERA+, 1.276 WHIP, 8.8 H/9, .9 HR/9
    Bailey 2012:
    13-10 Recrd, 3.68 ERA, 33 Games, 208 Innings, 52 BB, 168 SO, 115 ERA+, 1.240 WHIP, 8.9 H/9, 1.1 HR/9

    Other than innings, they have nearly the same numbers in their pre-arb years. Bailey and Cueto both arrived in AA at roughly the same time. Yet Cueto arrived at arbitration 2 years ahead of Bailey. Both arrived at the arbitration process being considered by most as a #3. Johnny got a 4 year $27M (3.4, 5.4, 7.4, 10) contract.

    A 4/40 contract for Bailey is an insult to Cueto and inflates Latos’ contract to an unreasonable number. Bailey should get a similar deal as Cueto. The 4/29 makes sense to me.

  9. Over the past year Homer Bailey has, in my opinion, gone from extremely underrated (he’s so bad, they better trade him away for anything they can get!) to pretty overrated (he’s a #1 guy!). I hope they pay for what he does, which I think that 4 year, $29 suggestion might cover, rather than pay for an expected improvement. Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey have both had trouble with staying healthy, which should be factored into a contract – Bronson Arroyo’s inning totals are a big part of why he gets paid so much. Even if Bailey can keep up his 2012 level of production I have questions about his inability to stay healthy.

    Why is it that every season every player seems to have worked out harder in the offseason than ever before or discovered a new diet/training regime?

    • Over the past year Homer Bailey has, in my opinion, gone from extremely underrated (he’s so bad, they better trade him away for anything they can get!) to pretty overrated (he’s a #1 guy!). I hope they pay for what he does, which I think that 4 year, $29 suggestion might cover, rather than pay for an expected improvement. Johnny Cueto and Homer Bailey have both had trouble with staying healthy, which should be factored into a contract – Bronson Arroyo’s inning totals are a big part of why he gets paid so much. Even if Bailey can keep up his 2012 level of production I have questions about his inability to stay healthy.Why is it that every season every player seems to have worked out harder in the offseason than ever before or discovered a new diet/training regime?

      I do agree, Homer isn’t a #1. He may have showed a dimension last year that he could be, but that is a far cry from actually being a #1.

      Cueto hasn’t had the problem staying healthy that Bailey had had. Bailey’s has been much worse, but both were fine last year.

      Bronson gets paid that much because of his prolonged success, as typical anywhere else. I believe it was something like from 2007-2009 (or something like that, without looking them us), Bronson was suppose to be one of the top 5 in the league in wins for all 3 years total.

  10. If Bailey had not been rushed to the major league roster, I agree with TC’s evaluation and comparison regarding the efficacy between Cueto and Bailey. Unfortunately, Bailey was rushed and therefor started his ARB clock a year too early for a direct comparison with Cueto, but Cueto still provides probably the best comparison available taking into account the ARB difference and salary inflation for starting pitchers. A 4 yr/$29MM contract may be a little low, but not much. A 4 yr/$32MM contract ($5MM,$7MM,$9MM,$11MM) with a club option at $11MM and a $1MM buyout might be a more valid contract (in essence a 4 yr/$33MM contract).

    I think Bailey’s example of rushing a starting pitcher to the major leagues and starting his ARB clocj too early serves as a good example for handling the starting pitchers coming up through the Reds’ minor league pipeline right now. The Reds will need them available to fill in behind Arroyo, Cueto, Bailey and Latos when the Reds lose player control of those pitchers.

  11. Like I said, I’m no expert. Good stuff on this thread. It will be interesting to see if the Reds are able to extend him at a price-point they feel comfortable with or if they will settle on a one or two-year deal.

  12. @Shchi Cossack: Your $33M is probably in line with what he WILL get. But I don’t know if I agree that’s what he SHOULD get.

    I agree he was brought to the majors before he was ready. That’s on the Reds management. I think he’d would be worth a lot more now if they’d given him another year (or more) to mature in the minors. I can’t imagine how that would be a factor in contract negotiations though.

    Unfortunately, Bailey was rushed and therefor started his ARB clock a year too early for a direct comparison with Cueto

    I don’t understand. You’ve earned the benefit of the doubt so I’m probably just missing a step in logic.

    • @TC:

      I don’t understand. You’ve earned the benefit of the doubt so I’m probably just missing a step in logic.

      I thank you for your very generous consideration regarding the benefit of the doubt. My somewhat convoluted point is that Bailey made $2.5MM in 2012 because his ARB clock started earlier that it should have. Cueto made $0.5MM the year before he signed his extension, so the starting point for Bailey’s extention will be increased accordingly from Cueto’s starting point.

      • @Shchi Cossack: Yup. I missed a step. Thanks, Steve.

        I thank you for your very generous consideration regarding the benefit of the doubt.

        I know you’re kidding with me, but you are an excellent poster. I was certain you were coming from somewhere.

  13. As far as Homer Bailey being rushed, I don’t think it’s a matter that the Reds have learned anything from it or they regret their decision, they did it out of necessity. Homer Bailey was rushed to provide something for fans to be optimistic about, somebody to sell tickets, somebody who could perform badly and still be better than the AAA-caliber guys he was competing with for a rotation spot. I think it’s important to recognize how much the rotation around Homer Bailey has improved since his arrival (which is completely unrelated to him).

    The Reds seem to have their rotation pretty well filled for the next several years and probably won’t be in the same situation again, needing to rush a pitcher to fill a spot. That’s just a matter of the pitching staff getting better, not that they learned something. Robert Stephenson and Tony Cingrani, for example, the Reds no longer have a desperate need to promote them ASAP (unlike when Bailey was promoted), rather they need to find a way to open a rotation spot whenever either is ready.

  14. I was reading the USa Today article on the A-Rod story and that South Florida clinic doctor passing out HGH, testosterone cream and other PEDs. Yasmani Grandal’s name has surfaced again in yet another PED investigation. That may mean a 100-game suspension for him now. Good riddance WJ, good riddance.

    • I was reading the USa Today article on the A-Rod story and that South Florida clinic doctorpassing out HGH, testosterone cream and other PEDs.Yasmani Grandal’s name has surfaced again in yet another PED investigation.That may mean a 100-game suspension for him now. Good riddance WJ, good riddance.

      Um, for all we know that clinic is where Grandal got the stuff that he’s currently suspended for. The story today is about circumstantial evidence – guys names were found in a database of sales – which is different from violating the drug policy. Gio Gonzalez’s dad apparently bought some creams from the clinic, Gio’s possible involvement is suspicious but I doubt he’ll be suspended unless he tests positive for something.

      I think the most important thing to come out of today’s news story is a cloudy of uncertainty and skepticism over Gio Gonzalez’s career, much like with Ryan Braun.

  15. @redsfanman: To elaborate, I don’t mean that Ryan Braun was charged with anything today, but his incident last year of testing positive and avoiding a suspension on a technicality has always seemed suspicious. Innocent or not, I suspect Ryan Braun of using performance enhancing drugs, as do many other people. The same is probably now true with Gio Gonzalez.

    Most of the other names mentioned today – Melky Cabrera, Alex Rodriguez, Bartolo Colon, Yasmani Grandal – they didn’t strike me as surprising. Gio Gonzalez, I don’t think anybody saw that coming.

  16. As an Investigator I feel the there has to be a common denominator with these names listed in this article.
    Cabrerra, Colon, and Cruz are Dominicans.
    Gonzalez and Grandal are Cuban and both went to High School in the Miami area. Grandal went to college there too.
    A-Rod is American.
    Oakland A’s had Colon, Gonzalez and Grandal. Cabrerra was across the Bay in San Fran.
    Texas Rangers had Cruz and A-Rod.
    What do Texas and Oakland have in common??
    Jose Canseco.
    And where does Canseco live? Miami.
    Who is the one player that is eyeball deep in the baseball/PED storyline? Jose Canseco.
    Where does A-Rod live in the off season? Miami.
    Time to start connecting the dots. I want to see the list of players’ names from the 2003 list MLB has. Time to make that public.

    • As an Investigator I feel the there has to be a common denominator with these names listed in this article.
      Cabrerra, Colon, and Cruz are Dominicans.
      Gonzalez and Grandal are Cuban and both went to High School in the Miami area.Grandal went to college there too.
      A-Rod is American.
      Oakland A’s had Colon, Gonzalez and Grandal. Cabrerra was across the Bay in San Fran.
      Texas Rangers had Cruz and A-Rod.
      What do Texas and Oakland have in common??
      Jose Canseco.
      And where does Canseco live?Miami.
      Who is the one player that is eyeball deep in the baseball/PED storyline?Jose Canseco.
      Where does A-Rod live in the off season?Miami.
      Time to start connecting the dots.I want to see the list of players’ names from the 2003 list MLB has.Time to make that public.

      WVRedlegs~ Please tell me that your post was sarcasm? I laughed out loud…it’s brilliant logic. http://redlegnation.com/wp-includes/images/smilies/icon_biggrin.gif

  17. @WVRedlegs: Balco was based in California, I believe. This group in Florida. Connect the dots from Florida to California and the whole US is involved! Toss in the Dominican Republic and you can make a weird shaped triangle!

    Seems like pretty flimsy evidence to suggest that Jose Canseco is the head of some big ring tempting people with drugs, which it seems like you’re implying.

  18. Doesn’t Votto live down in Florida during the offseason? As I’m sure many many other players who aren’t involved in PEDs. I think thats a big jump that shouldn’t be made and is way too inclusive and all encompassing. I’m sure there is some other connecting factor that we just don’t know or see.

  19. @JAMinPA:
    It was half and half. I was just listing some commonalities. I did err about Grandal and the A’s. Don’t know what I was thinking on that. I know he went to SD.
    But the whole PED thing needs to be unraveled. No more secrecy from MLB. I wasn’t saying, as redsfanman sugessted, that Jose Canseco is a ring leader. Jose Canseco was the first thread that came undone. Just like on a sweater, pull that thread until it unravels. He knows more than what was in his book or what he has said publucly.
    Yes, BALCO was located in the San Fran/Oakland area. If you look at the list of names of players suspended for PED use since MLB adopted its new policy, a majority of them are from the Dominican Republic. Granted, most are minor leaguers. Where is the biggest Winter League located for baseball players?? The Dominican. There is no negative stigma or laws againt PEDs in The Dominican. It is almost encouraged there to take PEDs.
    Maybe MLB should adopt a policy in its PED rules that a player that tests positive and is suspended, SHALL and MUST tell MLB investigators all the details about where, how, and from whom they purchased their PEDs before they are re-instated. I don’t think this is in the rules now. I think a player that gets caught just denies, denies and denies, does his 50-game suspension and then goes right back into baseball.
    If we are ever going to get to the bottom of this PED thing, it is past time to tighten the screws on those getting caught to supply more information to investigators.
    Just wait until the NFL steps up and starts testing for HGH. That will become a nightmare.

  20. USA Today baseball web page has some decent to good articles on the PED issues. One was How to Rid Baseball of PEDs.

  21. @WVRedlegs: “Maybe MLB should adopt a policy in its PED rules that a player that tests positive and is suspended, SHALL and MUST tell MLB investigators all the detail about where, how, and from whom they purchased their PEDs before they are re-instated?” That’s like suggesting murders should be forced to give all the details about the crime. Much easier said than done, especially if they are in denial. We all know it took guys like Pete Rose and Lance Armstrong years just to admit to any wrongdoing.

    After already adding in-season blood testing for HGH after the Hall of Fame announcement (or lack thereof) it seems like the only direction to go is to increase the duration of suspensions. Melky Cabrera is the finest reason. He got suspended for 50 games but got a 2 year, $16m contract out of it? A 50 game suspension is a small amount to risk if it can net you ~$16m. Full season (or 162 game) suspensions for the first positive test seems like the way to go. Now it’s up to the MLB Player’s Union.

  22. @redsfanman: We also can’t forget that Braun came from University of Miami, whose strength coach was among the names listed on the Biogenesis list for purchasing PEDs.

  23. @redsfanman: Why should the players union agree to harsher penalties?

    Also, it seems to me that it’s possible to have an accident. I’m not an expert in exactly what’s banned and so on, but in the NFL, you take Adderall and forget to get the doctor’s script, you’re out 4 games. Considering it’s possible (not saying likely, but possible) to accidentally take a supplement that has something banned, if you made it a year that’d be catastrophic. Same thing would be the case in baseball. I’m trying to imagine what the stakes would have been in the Braun case had the punishment been a whole year.

  24. @redsfanman: There is no doubt in my mind that Bailey is currently overrated by many people here.

    I like him and all, he did a good job last year, but he’s not a great pitcher.

    • @redsfanman: There is no doubt in my mind that Bailey is currently overrated by many people here.

      I like him and all, he did a good job last year, but he’s not a great pitcher.

      Thanks HAT.

  25. @Hank Aarons Teammate: Why should the MLB Players Union agree to harsher penalties? The players are facing another disgraceful scandal. They thought this mess was behind them, but it isn’t. The offseason – with this recent incident, the Hall of Fame selection (or lack thereof), and Melky Cabrera’s contract – has largely been defined by embarrassing reminders of baseball’s drug problem, and we’ve only been left with questions about whether they’re doing enough. The Players Union tried to offset the Hall of Fame situation by announcing in-season drug testing but that consent has been largely ignored by the media in favor of discussions about new penalties to discourage drug use once it’s been discovered.

    Will the Players Union agree to a stricter penalties? I don’t know, I doubt it. If their goal is to protect/support clean players who compete fairly they would. If their goal is to convince the fans that they are doing all they can to prevent drug use they would.

    Regarding players having ‘accidents’, I guess stricter penalties would make it worth their while to be more ‘careful’. MLB players have plenty of trainers and doctors to talk to before applying any mystery creams, taking any pills, or eating special foods. Some people survive without being able to eat nuts or gluten, I assume people can also get by without testosterone cream and HGH getting slipped into their diet.

  26. @redsfanman: All unions, in any job, work to protect their members—even if the members are doing things that reflect poorly on the group.

    How about this: why not ban a player found to have taken a banned substance for life? If you want to increase from 50 to 162 games, why not just go all the way?

  27. @Hank Aarons Teammate: Yep, the Players Union, like any other union, works to protect their members, but they’ve already been forced to agree to a lot of concessions regarding drug testing in recent years to combat their drug problem. Sometimes it’s required government involvement, more recently it (the announcement of in-season blood tests for HGH) resulted from nobody being selected into the Hall of Fame because of drugs. The Players Union is known to make concessions when everyone seems united against them, like they are now.

    162 game bans vs lifetime bans, I think the point should be ensuring that the risks don’t outweighs the benefits of using drugs and I think full season 162 game bans accomplish that. A second positive test could be a lifetime ban. Melky Cabrera wouldn’t have gotten such a big contract if he was going to be suspended for half of 2013.

  28. Ugh, I am so tired of the PED discussions. MLB Tonight on the MLB Network has pretty much had non-stop coverage on it. Seems the pundits are talking about harsher suspensions as a way to discourage use but the penalties for subsequent failures are a full 162 game suspension for a 2nd failure and a lifetime ban for a 3rd failure. 50 games for the first failure isn’t exactly a slap on the wrist either. Perhaps an increase to 81-games? That would be half a season.

    Back to the subject at hand though. This is an interesting story from ESPN speculating about how pitchers are going to cash in big time when they hit the open free-agent market. It is from our *Sarcasm alert* favorite GM but I see exactly where he’s coming from. Enjoy:

    http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=8884196

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s