2013 Reds

Cincinnati’s 2013 ZiPS Projections

A couple of weeks ago, Jason mentioned the FanGraphs Fan Projections. Well, now my favorite “upcoming season projections” have been released for your Cincinnati Reds: Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections.

No big surprises, but there are lots of interesting nuggets within the numbers over there. Votto, Bruce, and Choo are projected to have big offensive years. On the mound, Cueto, Latos, and Chapman look like a nice top three in the rotation, and Sean Marshall’s projection, if it comes to fruition, will lead to another year as the most underrated Red. Speaking of the bullpen, if Broxton can reach the projected numbers, I’ll be very happy indeed.

Unfortunately, all isn’t rosy. Ryan Ludwick’s projection is kinda ugly for a starting left fielder. Choo’s defense looks to be pretty bad in center field. Logan Ondrusek is probably going to be Logan Ondrusek. Again.

Anyway, go check them out for yourself. In the absence of actual baseball, this is all we are going to get for a while.

17 thoughts on “Cincinnati’s 2013 ZiPS Projections

  1. Count me as one who did not like the ludwick deal. I thought they overpaid for a player who was in obvious decline the three previous seasons. His OPS+ in 09,10, and 11 were 105, 104, and 90. I believe the 128 from last season was an aberration and that he will go back to around league average again this season and decline further after that.

    • @gosport474:

      I thought they overpaid for a player who was in obvious decline the three previous seasons. I believe the 128 from last season was an aberration and that he will go back to around league average again this season.

      Even if your evaluation is correct and Ludwick regresses back to league average ibn 2013, the contract Ludwick signed is for league average and also includes deferred payment making it less than league average. I think the projection of a 104 OPS+ for 2013 might be a little low for Ludwick, but I do expect something significantly less than the 128 OPS+ from 2012.

      I think Frazier will probably regress to league average for OPS+, but he may surprise me in 2013 and just keep pounding the ball.

  2. Dan Szymborski project 9 SB & 5 CS for Votto in 2013. If Votto even attempts 1 SB in 2013, somebody should fine him his entire 2013 salary and donate it to the charity of his choice!

    The OBP projection of 0.369 OBP for Choo and 0.326 for Phillips looks pretty solid. The projection of only only 35 2B for Votto looks very low. If Votto has that many baserunners on base in front of him, he will blow the RBI projection of 87 out of the park, especially if his projected HR total of 26 hold true.

    Here’s hoping the reduction from Frazier and Ludwick does not come to fruition, but such a reduction might very well happen. If so, we will probably see DB again move Phillips into the #4 hole and move Cozart into the #2 hole…ugh.

  3. The RBI and WAR for Votto is too conservative. I mean, he matched his 2013 projection in 2012 while playing hurt. Color me skeptical.

    @gosport474: Considering what other (lesser) outifielders received this offseason, the Ludwick deal can only be described as a win for the Reds. You won’t find better production for the money on the open market. And given the Red’s unwillingness to rush Hamilton, what choice did we have?

    • The RBI and WAR for Votto is too conservative.I mean, he matched his 2013 projection in 2012 while playing hurt.Color me skeptical.

      @gosport474: Considering what other (lesser) outifielders received this offseason, the Ludwick deal can only be described as a win for the Reds.You won’t find better production for the money on the open market.And given the Red’s unwillingness to rush Hamilton, what choice did we have?

      That would only be if Ludwick has the same numbers he had last year, or if he goes back to the numbers he had in the previous couple of years. He said it takes time for him to get use to his new surroundings. He said he was use to his new surroundings now. So, there should be no reason why the numbers won’t be there, except if last year was just an aberration. We won’t know that until after the season, though.

  4. I’ve got a lot of confidence that Ryan Hannigan and Devin Mesoraco will not going to combine for 732 plate appearances. And that Joey Votto will have more than 35 doubles.

    There are varying amounts of voodoo in projections like these, but offensively we need somebody (Bruce, I hope) to do substantially better than the projections.

  5. @TC: I prefer CHONE slightly over ZiPS as far as forcasting is concerned. ZiPS in general projects mean outcomes from which a range of values are possible above and below the mean. It is generally a conservative system and therefore isn’t usually drastically off from what a player does. Keep in mind though that all projection systems are projections and not a prediction of what a player is going to do. That’s why you’ll see the PA numbers that don’t make sense. ZiPS doesn’t really factor in playing time. You will see projections of 400 PA for a AA player who may get a cup of coffee if he’s lucky.

    For good info on Projection Systems, this is a good read: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/the-projection-rundown-the-basics-on-marcels-zips-cairo-oliver-and-the-rest/

  6. I don’t know anything about the methods here, but I have to ask… in what world do Frazier and Mesoraco project to be basically equal as hitters? How does that make any sense?

    I also agree that Votto’s doubles are WAY too low. He was on pace for like 60 doubles before his injury.

    Anyway… sorry to nitpick. Still fun to see concrete projections like this.

    3 weeks til pitchers and catchers report!

  7. One reason the Votto raw number projections look low is that the projection essentially sees him missing 35 games. If you divide the projected PAs by 4.5, you get 128 games.

  8. Wait, were they predicting that Ryan Ludwick was returning to Petco Park? I mean, he’ll be returning to GABP with his new contract, right?

  9. Considering how much Cody Ross and Nick Swisher got paid, if Ludwick can hold close to what he did last year, he will be a bargain.

  10. @Dan: In what world do Frazier and Mesoraco project to be comparable hitters? Mesoraco entered 2012 as one of the top catching prospects in the game, Frazier entered last season as a nobody (despite being a supplementary first round pick and former top prospect by Baseball America) who some people were projecting as a utility player. Frazier had a much better 2012 season offensively than Mesoraco but Mesoraco is younger and has a much higher ceiling. I think it’s way too early to write Mesoraco off as a bad hitter -they’re projecting a .245 average, .316 OBP, and 14 homeruns which, in my opinion, isn’t unreasonable.

  11. They project Bronson Arroyo to pitch 164 innings? I’ve got a problem with that – where on earth did they pull that number from? He’s pitched between 199 and 240.2 innings every year since 2005, ~200 inning from Arroyo seems like a pretty safe bet. I don’t understand how you can look at his numbers and predict that he won’t.

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