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Thoughts about this base-clogging Opening Day lineup? Here’s Chad’s podcast to get you started.
- Choo RF/CF
- Phillips 2B
- Votto 1B
- Ludwick LF
- Bruce RF/CF
- Frazier 3B
- Cozart SS
- Hanigan C
- Cueto P
With this (!) starting pitching rotation:
- Cueto
- Latos
- Chapman
- Bailey
- Arroyo
And this bullpen:
- Broxton
- Marshall
- Massett
- Hoover
- Simon
- Arredondo
- LeCure
And this depth:
- Mike Leake SP
- Logan Ondrusek RP
- Chris Heisey OF
- [Update per comment] Xavier Paul OF
- Jason Donald IF
- Devin Mesoraco C
- [Update per current events] Jack Hannahan 3B/1B
Still to acquire for the final Opening Day roster:
- Left-handed reliever
In Walt We Trust. . . . Also, how nice is it to have ownership who is committed to winning but intelligent in it’s approach to doing so?
5th OF is XP. Reds will keep him on 25 man after what he showed them last year, barring an abysmal ST. Donald is a Utility IF/OF, and I can see them signing Hanahan to be the second.
Please stop Choo-sing to put bad puns in your articles.
LHP, maybe Bray comes back if he is healthy. Rafael Perez formerly of the Indians also has health issues, but if the doctors give him a thumbs up those issues could make him a cheap one year fix.
5th outfielder, I think Paul has earned first dibs at that. Need a LH bat on the bench.
Utility Infielder, I think Hanahan is going to be too expensive given the market at 3B. Rolen is a great guy, but is he a utility player? Can he even spell Votto at 1B? Someone with a little more flexibility would be nice.
Boy, isn’t it nice to be discussing filling out the bench, as opposed to say where we were 5 years ago?
I’m sorry, I realize this is an opening day thread, but I can’t get over this talk by Kevin Towers that Didi Gregorious reminds him of a young Derek Jeter. It’s just preposterous. First of all, Jeter probably has never been the kind of defensive SS that Gregorious is. But hitting…what’s he saying? At age 22 Jeter had a .370 OBP and .430 SLG. At age 22, Gregorious had a .324 OBP. Oh, and Jeter was playing for the Yankees, Gregorious for AA and AAA. Gregorious has a career .323 OBP in the minors. Jeter had .386.
I guess he thinks Gregorious is going to develop power; he said as much. Well, Towers has his convictions…no one else seems to think so.
Long time reader first time commenter:
Rolen doesn’t have to spell Votto at 1st. Frazier can play first if Rolen covers him at third. The better question is whether Dusty can be trusted to keep Rolen on the bench if he has him on the roster. If we could guarantee that, I would be all for bringing him back. But if not, better to make him a coach.
@bhrubin1: Welcome!
Your inaugural comment raises a common Baker-era Reds theme: Dusty-proofing vs. Better lineup otherwise.
Aww, I didn’t get a welcome?
/Sadface/
Belated welcome to you Rhayex! Nobody welcomed me either, I think they were annoyed to have me actually
@bhrubin1:
Many of us were like that. I read this site for 2 years before making my first comment. Hope you become a regular.
@rhayex: Good call on XP. I forgot him. Will make the change.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: Yeah, Towers comes out of this looking pretty bad. Even if he does believe that Didi is the next Jeter (which is a highly suspect claim for all the reasons you point out), no one else things that, so he still didn’t get close to market value for Bauer. What a weird way to do business.
Pulling off this Choo trade is masterful. Just incredible, IMO.
@bhrubin1: good point about Frazier at first…but as far as I’m concerned, Rolen can come back and do whatever he wants. Having his bat off the bench would be super. Play him every third day at third.
I have a question, if they acquire a lefty reliever, who’s left off the roster from the 7 bullpen arms listed. I don’t see a weak link. So, if they do, I’d prefer to see Hoover work on starting in AAA.
Another way to look at the notion that the Reds traded a guy in Stubbs who could rebound…What if Choo “rebounds” to his 2008 numbers. OPS+ of 151, 14th in the MVP voting in the AL.
My point is that if we’re going to think of Stubbs’ performance next year in a likely range of somewhere between his 2012 numbers and his 2010 numbers (which I think is reasonable, with a small chance that he reverts to 2010), then we need to figure that Choo will be somewhere in the range of his 2012 season to his 2008 season (he had one down year in 2011, but his 4 others are very good to great). There’s a probably small but not *that* small chance Choo completely goes off next year.
If Choo repeats 2008, the Reds have a 20 million dollar player in 2013 for an effective price of about 5.5 million dollars.
Minor note for Steve: The utility infield candidate’s name is Jack Hannahan, not Hanahan.
The Reds also need to acquire a minor league/third string catcher and AAA depth. It’ll be interesting to see who they find.
@GRF: I’m pretty sure that Bill Bray already signed with another team – the Nationals, I think. Jack Hannahan has an opening with a contender if he comes to the Reds, and he might value that.
@rhayex: Why can’t you see Hannahan joining Donald on the Reds’ bench? Donald is a right handed shortstop, Hannahan is a lefthanded 1b/3b. I think that, at least on paper, they fit in well together.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: I think this is a good opportunity to point and laugh at Kevin Towers. AHHH ha ha ha ha.
This is the most effective, balanced Reds’ lineup I have seen in a very long time. CF concerns me but that will work itself out this spring. If Choo struggles or can’t handle CF, then Im sure Bruce will handle CF effectively.
The starting rotation is simply scary good. Chapman must be moved to the 5th starter position and put on a strict innings/pitch count per start with his start skipped when off days permit and everyone else moved up a day. The Reds do not want a Strasburg situation facing them come playoff time.
Heisey & XP are the 4th & 5th OF. Donald is 1 utility IF with the 2nd utility IF still needed. A LOOGY is definitely needed for the bullpen or Dusty will never make it through the entire season. Meso will probably back up Hanigan again rather than going to AAA and regaining his mojo.
That’s the 25 man roster as it stands right now. That leaves Leake & Ondrusek outside looking in. I hope Hannahan is not too expensive. He’s a LH bat that hits equally well against both RHP & LHP. That provides a LH & RH bat in both the OF & IF utility/PH roles.
@TC: tough question…if they were willing to have Leake start in the pen last year had chapman made the rotation, I wonder what they would do this year? I’d be surprised if they come out of the spring unscathed from injury but should they…hmmm…I guess I would send down whomever had options. That would be Hoover and Leake. I’m guessing Simon and Lecure have more prominent roles in the pen this year. Now if we could get Pierzynski to back up Hannigan and keep Mesoroco busy in his development in Louisville…I’d chuckle until I peed my pants.
I’m still a bit concerned about starting pitching depth..
I don’t see it as a likely problem. Currently Mike Leake is #6, if Chapman starts. I’d venture to say that Mike Leake is one of the better #6 starters in the league. If they lose two guys, say, it probably would be June by then. I say trade for a #5 if you need to at that point. Getting a #5 isn’t that much of a problem, especially if you’re willing to take on a little bit of payroll.
I assume you’re joking. The only think keeping Tony Cingrani from entering the rotation is a lack of open jobs.
The Reds get their leadoff man. And a good one at that. One thing I find hard to believe in all this, is that Mike Leake is still a Red. Especially after hearing Arizona was involved as a third team. However, the Reds still need a legit #4 clean up hitter. Ludwick, by no stretch of the imagination, is a legit #4 hitter. Frazier, Bruce and Phillips are not legit #4 hitters either. The only one on the roster would be Joey Votto and Dusty (or maybe Votto refuses)refuses to bat him anywhere but third. I’d insert Cozart in the second hitting spot and just drop Phillpis to third. I would not worry about batting Votto and Bruce back to back. It would really only matter late in games that are close 1 or 2 run games. The Reds hopefully wouldn’t find themselves in that position very often in 2013 with this lineup.
1. Choo
2. Cozart
3. Phillips
4. Votto
5. Bruce
6. Frazier
7. Ludwick
8. Hanigan
9. P
Thats a lineup that can bring a pennant and World Series title to Cincinnati.
As far as guys being left out, what about Todd Redmond? Does he have any use other than as trade bait? Is there even a AAA rotation spot for him anymore?
A lefty specialist would be nice but I don’t think it’s terribly important – Jose Arredondo could be asked to fill that role.
I posted some of these thoughts on the other thread, but I’ll reiterate them here.
This is a good deal, don’t get me wrong, but I think we have good reason to worry about the OF defense. The idea that Bruce can play CF and Choo play RF overlooks that Choo is absolutely horrible in RF. (Like–historically bad. Look it up in Fangraphs.) Perhaps Ludwick plays RF, with Choo in LF and Bruce in CF. I don’t know.
But, yes, the lineup is now scary good. WVRedlegs: having Ludwick at clean-up is much preferable to having Cozart bat 2nd.
He definitely had a poor 2012 in the field. But most seasons he has had positive defensive ratings. Keep in mind the defensive ratings are still evolving and using any one year to measure a player is really fraught with potential for error. I think it’s more accurate to say his defensive ratings were horrible in 2012, not that Choo is horrible in RF.
@WVRedlegs: I think Ludwick is a legit cleanup hitter. He started off slow in 2012 but hit over .300 in the second half – lets see what we get out of him. Votto won an MVP with Scott Rolen hitting behind him and Pujols won an MVP ahead of Ryan Ludwick.
I think being able to move Cozart to the bottom of the order was a good thing, a success for the Choo trade, rather than something they should work hard to avoid.
@WVRedlegs: Ah, WV, I politely but strongly disagree with your assessment of Ludwick. He most certainly can hit cleanup effectively and legitimately, especially at GABP. Last year he would have ranked top 10 in the NL in SLG and OPS had Dusty played him all year. That’s not just effective, it’s downright good and certainly legitimate. Could the Reds do better that Ludwick at cleanup? Sure, but that would mean a player like Braun, Stanton, Cutch, Wright, Headly, etc.
@redsfanman: Agreed on Ludwick for the cleanup spot. He earned it. Or if nothing else, between Ludwick and Bruce the Reds have a legit clean-up anyway. Hall of Fame? No. Legit, yes.
This trade is just super. I cannot wait for April. The biggest concern now IMO is everyone staying healthy, but even then our depth is pretty solid. Bring it WLB’s!
Oh and here’s a bonus: Reds not having to play AGAINST Choo! Granted he wasn’t in our division and we didn’t have to play against him all that often but man when we did he was a Reds killer! I would be interested in finding out the his stats against us but I swear everytime we played him he hit a home run, sometimes 2. I guess if you can’t beat him….
That’s another brilliant aspect of this trade. For once, the Reds are telling the division: Come get us. Your move next, try to keep up.
So much better than chasing to catch up after a Cards transaction.
@VottoManCrush: Happiest man on the planet: Bronson Arroyo.
What about this:
1. Put Leake in the bullpen as the long man.
2. Limit Chapman to 4-5 innings/start, and then just assume you are putting Leake in for 3 on those days.
3. On all other days, if the starter makes it past inning 5 (no long man needed), you pull Leake out of the bullpen and put him on the bench to be used as a PH.
That gives you a fifth bat off the bench (six if you count Meso/Hanigan), without taking up an extra roster spot, and let’s face it, Mike Leake is a better hitter than Cairo or Valdez, and it looks like he could very well be better than this Donald character. It also limits Chapman’s innings without limiting his starts, his fastball’s exposure, or stretching the bullpen. And finally, Leake’s off speed stuff will never play better than it will against batters that have just spent their last two PAs trying to adjust to Chapman.
Several of us have suggested that. That’s what I would do.
One caveat to all the justifiable gooshing following the aquisition of Choo & Donald:
I like the team chemistry set up from this trade and the potential of the team now in place, but WJ could still pull another rabbit out of his hat to strengthen the team even more, for both 2013 and for the long term. He is still dealing from a position of strength.
Just saying…
Cingrani will start the season in the bullpen. The bullpen will consist of players based on what they did in 2012 and what they do in Spring Training 2013. What did Masset do in 2012?? Sat on the DL all year with a lame shoulder in his throwing arm. Then had surgery near the end of the season. Masset will have to pitch his way onto the 25-man roster. I don’t see that happening. Come March 30, when it becomes apparent that Masset cannot pitch his way onto the roster, he will be given his unconditional release with the theme that the Reds did so so that Masset could possibly hook up with another team before all teams solidify their 25-man rosters. I don’t think there is 1 team out there that would trade for Masset, not even at the end of spring training. That will be $3.5MM that WJ will have to eat. That sum could have played an important part in paying for putting a solid bench together.
@beens999:
Is this a sarcastic comment? If it is then I apologize, but the Reds have the kind of starting pitching depth that most teams would give anything to have. If Chapman pans out, they have 3 high impact ace-type arms at the top of the rotation. They also have a guy in Bailey who seems primed for a breakout and the ever dependable Bronson Arroyo to round out the top 5.
As far as depth is concerned, the Reds have a three year vet in Leake who is still young and has a pretty decent track record. He’s not great, but you can count on him to be league average and give you innings. Pretty good for a 6th starter. They also have a pair of good pitching prospects in Corcino and Cingrani at AAA. These guys are both top 100 prospects in all of baseball. Oh yeah, and there’s also Todd Redmond kicking around just in case.
Injuries happen and none of these guys will be able to replace a Cueto or a Latos, but this is a very deep pitching staff. I’m glad Jocketty was able to get his lead off hitter without gutting it.
@WVRedlegs: Just out of curiosity… why Cozart in the 2 hole?
I know Cozart’s numbers in the two hole were very good, but I’d think that’s much due to the guy in the on deck circle, an effect that would be partially lost if that guy was Phillips. Plus, I’d dearly love to see what Phillips could do with a year’s worth of “for Jeebus’ sake, don’t put this guy on” pitches…
For the very reason you stated. That Cozart’s numbers as a #2 hitter were very good. Those numbers weren’t from the leadoff spot. Phillips’s numbers will be good no matter where he bats.
@WVRedlegs:
I strongly disagree with Cingrani. Last season he got a September callup but that didn’t somehow doom him to the bullpen permanently, just like how Didi’s callup didn’t move him to the bench (HA, look at Arizona). Based on what he did in 2012 I expect he’ll return to the Louisville rotation.
I think it’s way too soon to write off Nick Masset. If he’s not ready to pitch well he can start on the DL but I doubt they’ll release him after waiting a year for him to recover.
I believe Cozart benefited from a hot start and a small sample size when it came to hitting second. I think Phillips will also benefit from hitting second but he’s just a better hitter. Start Cozart in the bottom of the order and move him up if he earns it, or if a spot opens up.
@RC: What’s even better: “for Jebus sake, don’t put this guy on also ” because Choo will be on a lot already. Excuse me while I wipe the drool from my keyboard.
@beens999: Hilarious! If the starting pitchers get through ST unscathed it’ll be interesting to see what happens with this incredible depth we have. I don’t know how many SP depth charts can claim to have each and every pitcher more than capable of contributing to a shutout each and every night. No easy match-up for any opponent.
@redsfanman
I DID say that Hanahan and Donald could be on the Reds together. I specifically stated that I could see the Reds getting Hanahan as well.
The other great thing is Choo is a doubles machine. I know previously many did not like the idea of Phillips at #2 because of the amount of DP’s he grounds into. But, with Choo on 2nd it becomes not as big of an issue, and Votto still gets a chance with a RISP.
It’ll be interesting to see if Cleveland doubles means homeruns in Cincinnati with a lower outfield fence.
Talk about removing the sting from last year’s postseason! Here are all the things we can be thankful for this offseason (and it’s still early December!)
1) Vottomatic will be back to full strength next season
2) Chapman is in the rotation
those alone are worth endless superlatives… plus:
3) resigning Ludwick to hit cleanup for under market value and only a 2-year contract
4) trading for not just a serviceable leadoff hitter (which would have been an upgrade), but an excellent leadoff hitter
5) improving the bench
6) maintaining our excellent pitching depth
Unreal.
Stubby’s numbers were better in the two hole, too (not nearly Cozart’s, but still better). I don’t believe that there’s magic in hitting second, I believe there’s magic in having an MVP-caliber player swinging a bat in the pitcher’s peripheral vision.
Oh, and two other things:
I, too, am a bit surprised that we’ve done all this and still have Mike Leake. I still have hope that Leake can develop into a better pitcher, and maybe the absolute best thing that could happen for the guy is a year in AAA to work on his pitches in games that don’t actually count. Although… he could be effective as Chapman’s 3-inning caddy, too. Hard to imagine a more different pitching approach for hitters who’ve just tried to hit Chappy twice.
As far as XP goes, he did a fine job for this team last year, and deserves every shot at the 5th OF spot. BUT, let’s remember this is the same guy who got cut loose mid-season by the Nats. We may get that guy next year, and we’d better have a plan B in mind.
Aw, who cares? I’m so happy about yeterday, I’m sure it’ll all work out. Pitchers and catchers report tomorrow, right?
@bhrubin1:
I love the idea of Leake being the a) “6th starter”/long man b) decent pinch hitter option. Whether it works may depend on whether Leake is up to it; that would be a big change for how he’s normally been worked. Let’s see if Dusty has the guts to try it.
If we had any Manager besides Dusty, I’d welcome Rolen back. He’s still a good candidate to fill-in as late inning Defense at 3B or spell Votto at 1B. However, knowing Dusty, he’ll play Scotty way too much. Please no! It’s time to move on. Will make a good Coach but playing days are over! I’m sure Dusty will role out a lineup where we all shake our heads. He just can’t help himself. You know it’s true. It’s coming.
People tend to forget we made our run last year with solid starting pitching all year! Same starters since Day 1 is unheard of. IF we encounter injuries or Chapman upsets the status quo, we might have other issues besides offense. Not being a negative nanny but cautiously optimistic.
All studies I’ve seen show that “lineup protection” is way overblown if not an outright myth. I don’t think Cozart was better in the 2 hole last year because of who was batting 3rd; it was just a sample size mirage. Overall, the Reds are much better off putting the better hitter there and that is clearly Phillips over Cozart.
What I would like to see:
1. Choo
2. Phillips
3. Votto
4. Bruce
5. Frazier
6. Ludwick
7. Cozart
8. Hanigan
9. Pitcher
What we will see:
1. Choo
2. Phillips
3. Votto
4. Ludwick
5. Bruce
6. Frazier
7. Cozart
8. Hanigan
9. Pitcher
Either one works for me.
As for the rest of the roster – I’d like Meso to be in AAA starting most of the games and ready to go for injury. A.J. Pierzynski would be a great addition as a back-up catcher. Rolen would be welcome back if Dusty uses him correctly. If not, a left handed IF would be Dusty’s preferred choice (I hear Willie Harris is available(JOKING)) Heisey and Rolen as late game defense replacements would be almost lights out. A left handed reliever is probably unnecessary right now and can be had at any time via trade for cheap. I would rather go in with the best group of relievers possible than leaving someone out for just a lefty only guy.
What happens if Rolen returns and Frazier has a sophomore slump? The main problem I have with Rolen returning is that there’s likely to be a ton of complaining by fans. I don’t think there’s any correct way for Dusty to manage him. If Rolen hits and fields better and wins the 3b job from Frazier lots of people will be angry, and blame Dusty. Whenever Rolen plays we’ll hear about how Dusty is foolishly favoring the veteran. It’d just be a mess. I hope the Reds sign Jack Hannahan to settle the matter. Rolen’s job and roster spot would be gone, no hard feelings.
Think i just heard Hannahan is now a Red…
One thing that I have picked up on that could be an (at this point anyway) intangible reverberation of this trade is Choo’s attitude and work ethic. From what I understand, this guy is a very hard working, hustling type of player who is all-out, all the time. Now, I don’t think that Reds have a problem in this area, as we know about Votto, Arroyo’s conditioning, Cueto’s stair running, BP’s hustle in the field, etc. However, it is nice to have this kind of scrappy player at the top of the lineup.
@Drew Mac:
I also like the idea that maybe watching Choo at the top of the lineup will help the rest of the lineup develop more plate discipline. Other than Votto and Hanigan the Reds lack in this regard.
Mr. Mancuso has the lineup down pat, without question.
I like the idea of Chapman as the 5th starter to limit his innnings.
Not too excited about Jack Hannahan. Would rather keep Rolen, and have Frazier spell Votto at 1B when necessary. Rolen gives you quality defense, a veteran presence, quality AB’s, and some pop in his bat.
To repeat what I said on the other string, the bench could be: Rolen, Donald, Heisey, a LEFTY OF’r, and Meso. Heisey gives you a competent backup in CF and in the corners.
We could be saying goodbye to Xavier Paul, who had a career year last year for the Reds. Was it a one time thing for him? Do you need more pop out of a lefty bench player? Either way, you need a lefty on your bench.
This bench is already better than last year’s. You upgrade that lefty OF’r, and you have a QUALITY BENCH.
The Reds with quality starting pitching, a quality lead-off hitter, a quality lineup, and a quality bench? I must be dreaming …
Look how far we have come in the last 5 or so years. Management has really turned this franchise around.
I don’t really see what Jack Hannahan brings to the Reds. He’s a good defender which is nice, but Rolen could have done that if he was willing. He doesn’t have great splits against RHP. Admittedly, he’s better than the Cairo and Valdez gave them last year.
I guess WJ is just doing his best to Dusty-proof the roster.
What does Hannahan bring?
1. A lefthanded bat off the bench, last year he hit .270 with a .331 OBP in 215 ABs against RHPs.
2. A platoon candidate at thirdbase, if necessary.
3. A way to justify severing ties with Scott Rolen.
4. A guy who can keep Todd Frazier at 3b full time without shifting to first.
I think he’s a good investment.
@redsfanman:
Good points. When I first looked at Hannahan I was concerned with a low OBP, but it is better when you look at his stats vs RHP.
Looks like the bench is set. Hannahan, Donald, Heisey, Meso, and Xavier Paul. Two lefties, and with Donald, Heisey, and Frazier you have a lot of flexibility with substitutions.
I agree. I’m disappointed in his signing. Seems like a lot to spend on a weak hitting backup corner IF. Think Xavier Paul playing 3b/1B, their ML slash lines closely resemble each other. I like the ideal of a LH hitting backup IF, but I think what we needed more was a LH PH with some pop. I was thinking more along the lines of Dallas McPherson type, who is a Minor League FA by the way. With Hannahan signed for decent money already, it’s hard to see him not on the team. So if they do chase a LH bat for the bench with some pop now, I can see Xavier Paul’s spot being in jeopardy.
Yes, Hannahan is now a Red. For $2M, it may be a bit much to spend, but a good pick up. From here on out, the Reds are just picking up minor pieces.
@TC:
Where are you seeing this?
@earmbrister: http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/reds-to-sign-jack-hannahan.html
@Steve Mancuso:
I understand your point but it’s hard to find anyone out there who thinks he a good outfielder. (I’ve read several articles this morning about him and none claims he’s even average.) Maybe last year was a sample size mirage. But, his cumulative career numbers show him as a negative defensive player (although that is mainly based on how bad those numbers were last year).
https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/278897839499800576
@redsfanman: Thnx.
Hannahan’s career splits versus RHP: 233/.318/.363
Yes, he hit .270/.331/.381 last year. But he shouldn’t even be the 2nd pinch hitter off the bench. Heisey & and Xavier Paul both hit RHP better than him.
I’m a bit baffled by the Hannahan move, but I’ve no idea who else was out there. Anyone?
I guess Rolen’s retiring, huh?
@per14: Several of my Cleveland area friends say Choo is a little lost both on defense and on the basepath. On the running the bases part, he’ll fit right in!
WV, I agree that cingrani is the lefty in the pen
redsfanman, If Rolen choses to come back, it will be because he is healthy. He will not come back for an injury plagued swan song. He is not that guy. If he is healthy, I would have him on my team and see what happens. He is glue in the clubhouse.
I think the idea of piggybacking Leake for 3 every day that chapman throws 5 is a great idea until the all star break. That presents another trade opportunity for whatever might be needed, and that would be 12 Chapman starts where you could shave 25 innings off his total. Then let Chapman do what he does in the second half if you do trade a starter
Hannahan is signed for $2 million per Rosenthal and MLBTR.
I am guessing there will be competition between Burris and Donald for utility IF.
Now trade Redmond for a veteran lefty reliever so Baker has his “LOOGY”.
Most of the pieces I have read have Jay moving to CF by opening day. He won’t be great out there, but, hopefully, he could be slightly below average. Maybe playing 81 games at GABP will hide the deficiencies a bit, too. Most seem to think that Choo will be historically bad in CF.
I like that we only have one red headed step child versus three (Willie Harris, Cairo, Valdez).
Dusty will probably prefer Burriss to Donald because he use to be a Giant and could bring in a “winning” attitude, or some sort of BS like that.
STILL! One bad egg, but this one has some speed and potential.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: Cairo or Rolen.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: I liked Rolen more than Hannahan. Did the Reds decide that they cannot rely on Rolen to stay healthy throughout the season?
Hey Steve,
I am curious how the salary is shaping up with the estimated amount for Choo plus the $2 million for Hannahan. When you have time, could you update the salary chart?
It will be very appreciated.
@rfay00:
Baseball Reference has the payroll at $96.2 after Choo, so would Hannahan make it $98.2 for 2013?
@Hank Aarons Teammate: Not much via FA, but I assume someone like Hannahan can be traded for pretty easily.
In the end, it’s a lateral move between Rolen and Hannahan, with the secondary benefit of ensuring Frazier gets the majority of starts. The real improvement to the bench comes from finally having a rationally organized roster instead of a bench where one guy (Rolen) can only play 3B, another (Cairo) only really plays 3B/1B-albeit poorly, and the utility guy (Valdez) plays below average defense AND is completely useless at the play.
Per Danny Knobler on twitter:
Rolen saying he thinks he wants to return. Where would he fit? I know Hannahan *can* play elsewhere, but he’s noted for his excellent d *at third* and I’m not sure signing Rolen would be smart. Unless he plays for, say, eleven bucks an inning? I love Rolen, and I would like to see him back for his leadership…but NOT if he’s taking Frazier’s playing time away. Rolen is nothing more than defensive replacement and pinch hitter at this point.
To a man, Rolen has said he isn’t sure if he’s gonna play. The Reds have a job to do, so they filled the hole as best they can. I think that sends a pretty strong message to Rolen. Or more likely, I think he’s told them privately he’s done.
Rather than feel bad for Rolen, I feel for HRod. I think he could’ve produced every bit as much as Hannahan, and for the league minimum. That said, the Reds have been pretty adamant in recent years about prospects working their way up the ladder slowly, so this doesn’t suprise me. Hannahan had interest from other teams, so we could flip him if HRod is banging on the door.
@Sultan of Swaff:
My dear Sultan, I was also pulling for HRod to get a chance at the utility IF/PH role. I think the thing working against him was his relative lack of experience playing SS (and the fact that he’s a rookie and the reds don’t use rookies to fill utility roles). Put him in Louisville this year and plant he rear end at SS with occasional appearances at 2B & 3B. Let him prove to everyone once again that he is going to have a long, successful career in the Show (probably in a supersub IF utility role, right Cairo?) and the Reds better make a spot for him in 2014.
Maybe after another year in AAA the Reds can trade Henry Rodriguez to Arizona for a top pitching prospect. Stranger things have happened.
Yeah, just tell Towers that H-Rod is the next A-Rod and he will send over Upton and pay all his salary.
@hermanbates: That’s garbage IMO. I mean, it’s the middle of December, but Rolen still isn’t sure he’s playing?? For a guy who’s a ‘leader’, try leading yourself to a decision before we commit $2mil to someone else.
Too late, pal. The train has left the station.
@Sultan of Swaff: I agree completely.
Me, too. I don’t necessarily begrdge Rolen some time to make a decision, a contending organization can’t afford to sit on it’s hands while available players for need positions keep getting snapped up.
He should have let ‘em know by now.
@WVRedlegs: I was thinking of this the other day… I’m not particularly happy that the Reds’ cleanup hitter is Ludwick. He had an admirable season as a whole, but his first half was pretty awful. I’m not saying that there were better options available for WJ, perhaps not, but there is a real chance Ludwick does not match last season’s numbers
I think it’s important to recognize that Jack Hannahan is NOT competing for quite the same role as Scott Rolen, although he took Rolen’s job and roster spot. In Rolen’s case there’s always a chance he’d take over and play regularly, Hannahan is like a platoon option for Frazier who can’t take Frazier’s everyday job.
Henry Rodriguez can still get promoted if somebody gets hurt. I think he could use some more time in AAA and I don’t think he should feel held back by this. Hit well and he can earn a spot.
The Reds went from valuing former Cardinals to valuing former Indians (Choo, Donald, Hannahan). Did the front office hire somebody important out of the Indians organization?
Sorry, been kinda busy with some other stuff today. Haven’t had a chance to read all the comments carefully, so someone probably already said this, but Hannahan is a left-handed bat and can play 1B as well as 3B so nice utility. This almost certainly ends the Reds’ flirtation with Scott Rolen’s return.
The Burriss/Donald competition will be a classic titanic struggle. Neither one hits for power, neither one walks. Burriss had a negative dWAR last year, Donald was 0.0. Burriss had exactly one extra base hit (a double) in 150 plate appearances. If Donald is signed to a major league contract (not sure about that) it might give him an edge over Burriss who is just on a minor league deal.
Maybe Jocketty isn’t done with the utility players yet. Maybe both Donald and Burriss are organizational depth. Maybe Jocketty was sick of who we rolled out there last year.
Reds have to be the favorites to win it all this year.
Find me a team that is better built, top to bottom?
Hannahan’s walk-rate is 10.3% – more base clogging!
Not at the top of the order though! I expect he’ll be a 6 or 7 hitter when he’s in the lineup. He won’t clog the bases as much if he’s used against LHPs!
@RedForever: Lots of tough teams in the NL this year. Washington added some pieces, plus Strasburg and Storen all year and they had more wins that us last season. The Dodgers are the best team money can buy. The Giants are defending World Series champs. The WLB will be good this year, too. And that’s just the NL.
But I agree, I love the way our roster is shaping up. Keep going, Walt!
Here’s an interesting note about Jack Hannahan – his splits are strange:
2012: .167 average/.259 OBP in 72 ABs against LHPs, .270/.331 in 215 ABs against RHPs.
2011: .296/.367 in 108 ABs against LHPs, .226/.314 in 212 ABs against RHPs
One year he could only hit RHPs, the previous year he was better against LHPs than RHPs? In the past two years it balances out to a .244 average/.323 OBP against LHPs vs .248/.322 vs RHPs. Basically the same. I wonder how he pulled that off.
The Reds might be a 100 million dollar team this year…
@rfay00:
Don’t forget the $3.5MM that Cleveland kicked in to the deal to offset Choo’s salary.
That will offset the $3.5MM that the Reds will be throwing down a rat hole on Nick Masset.
I like the Hannahan pick up. He’s played well for Cleveland the last two years and he’s played a lot. I also like the Donald pick up in the Shoo trade. Donald had a rough 2012 season, but he played well for Cleveland during his 1st two years at the major league level and he played well through the minors. There is no competition between Burriss & Hannahan or Donald. Burriss is headed to Louisville after spring training while Donald and Hannahan will be in Cinncinnati.
From what I understand Donald is pre-arb still. So that appears that he would have options left.
It looks like the bench is set: Heisey, Paul, Hannahan, Meso, and backup SS TBD in ST. Kind of wish we had Janish back to back up SS.
HRod only had a handful of AB’s in AAA last year and was still recovering from a broken thumb at that. He can definitely use some more seasoning in AAA and if any of our bench bast struggles he’ll be ready. Also in AAA we’ll have at least 4 solid SP for depth in Corcino, Cingrani, Villarreal, and Redmond. Leake may end up there as well as the BP is already full.
The interesting battle will be the BP. You would have to think that at least 5 of the spots are locked up between Broxton/Marshall/Hoover/LeCure/Simon. Only Hoover has options out of that group (maybe LeCure). Simon could be the long man, and piggyback on Chapman. This could work out because you know the opposing manager will stack RH hitters against Chapman and then Simon comes in as a righty. After that Arredondo would appear to have a spot if no LOOGY is signed because he’s better against lefties anyways. He just makes me nervous because he walks a ton of guys, and that’s a horrible quality to have as a LOOGY.
Then the last position would likely come down to Ondru/Masset/Leake. From what I’ve read, it sounds like the Reds have about two weeks into the season to send Leake down or he loses his option for the year. To me, it would seem that keeping him starting in AAA would be the way to go. The Reds are in on Masset for too much money to just let him walk. If he’s healthy I fully expect him to be on the opening day roster. Ondrusek can work on stuff down in AAA.
For once the Reds have a really balanced and talented roster. I would still like to see a LH for the BP over Arredondo, and a better option for back up SS, but compared to last year’s roster I’m just being nit-picky.
Here’s a good question – who will have a better starting rotation in 2013 (assuming they all faced major league hitters), the Houston Astros or Louisville Bats? I would choose the Bats.
Notably, injured Scott Rolen (.716 OPS) still had a better statistical 2012 than Jack Hannahan (.654 OPS).
@Shchi Cossack: Good point, but there are still a ton of players not signed. Latos, Bailey, Paul, Heisey, Mesoraco, LeCure that are arbitration eligible, so who knows what their salaries end up being.
There might be a few more that I missed on that list too.
LOL Masset.
I’ve never seen so much hype about a marginal setup man. He was pretty good 4 years ago, decent 3 years ago, lousy 2 years ago, and didn’t pitch last year. He’s as relevant as Jimmy Haynes.
@Chris Garber:
I kinda prefer Josh Fogg over Haynes. Or Jack Armstrong, the All American Boy.
Man, the Reds have had some atrocious pitching over the last 20 years …
Wonder if the Dodgers will take Masset in a trade for a loogy in their pen? They like to spend money.
@hotto4votto: If a player on the 40 man roster is sent to the minors at any time, spring training, mid-season, whenever, the team has to use one of the players 3 options. A team uses 1 option per player per year, so it doesn’t matter if they send them to the minors several times in a year. I believe that Leake has only gone to the minors in one year, so he should have 2 option years left.
I think Leake should be the long man, now that LeCure has proven himself as a good late inning guy. I would skip a Chapman start every 4th or 5th time and let Leake start, to keep Chapman’s innings down. In games where it’s clear the long man won’t be needed, Leake can pinch hit too.
The addition of Choo makes this the best Reds team I’ve ever seen, on paper.
Choo had a down year last year, and if he repeated it with us, he would have been as good as Frazier or Ludwick were last year. Both vital parts of our team. But just a few years ago, he was one of the best outfielders in the game. If he gets close to those numbers, he’s like adding another Phillips or Bruce, or better.
I can easily see a scenario where he’s the second best hitter on the team this year.
Plus, they finally have another lefty in the lineup. He makes the lineup so balanced, with a lefty hitting 1, 3, and 5, and righties 2, 4, and 6.
He also has a career 1.400 OPS at GABP.
Like just about everyone else, I love this move. I’m also interested to see how Cingrani could figure in to this team. He seems talented, and as a lefty, I would think he’s a natural plug-in for Chapman throughout the season. I’m not sure what the smartest way to manage a roster spot would be for him, though. Any chance we use a six-man rotation for some part of the season?
Wow! Told my wife not to go crazy over my X-mas present as the Reds have gone all in.
Can’t wait until Spring Training starts. Might even take a trip to AZ to catch a few games.
Hanahan was signed to a two year contract, per John Fay. According to first reports, his first year he’ll receive 2 Mil. Second year the same?
Wouldn’t it maybe be a bit better idea to leave Chapman in AZ and allow him to better prep himself with workouts and such and bring him north say around May, then he can go until the end of the season. Have Leake start out as Number 5 and then move to the pen in may.
Actually I expect Arroyo to be worried – he gives up so many fly balls to the outfield, balls that he expects to be caught. He’s the guy whose numbers are likely to suffer as a result of this trade. That’s not to say that I regret the trade as I feel that Choo’s ability to leadoff more than offsets the fielding deficits.
I think the whole point of starting Chapman is getting him more innings and handling that by keeping from pitching seems silly. In my humble opinion they should start him. If he shows signs of wearing down replace him in the rotation, maybe with Tony Cingrani or Mike Leake.
@redsfanman: I hear you but I still think Bronson has to be thinking: I just dropped a quarter=point of my ERA.
@CharlotteNCRedsFan:
Or he might be thinking, I’ll be pitching with a lead alot this year.
Or … he might be thinking, is this the best chance I’ll ever have to get a WS ring?
I dunno. I won’t be surprised if Dusty gives Bronson his own “personal centerfielder” to go along with his personal catcher.
@earmbrister: He’s already checked that off his bucket list… he was with Boston in ’04 when they took the ring.
Whoops. Good job by Bronson. Well, this is his chance to win the World Series as the important veteran on the pitching staff rather than the irrelevant young guy who a team would trade for Wily Mo Pena.
And the Bosox picked up both airfares if I heard the story right…..
@CP: I have no problem with Arroyo choosing his own catcher and nobody (that I know of) has objected in the past. Hanigan hits better than Mesoraco but effectively they are interchangeable – they’re getting days off, it’s just a matter of when. Benching Choo, Ludwick, or Bruce (and moving Choo to LF or RF when Ludwick or Bruce are out) during Arroyo’s starts would be much more noticeable and controversial. Starting Heisey and bringing in Ludwick or Choo in a double switch when Arroyo leaves would be odd. Interesting situation for Dusty to manage.
@earmbrister: He might be thinking that he’ll be a part of a lot of high scoring games in his best chance to win the World Series. I expect Arroyo will win 15 games again, the same as I would have predicted before the trade. It’ll be interesting to watch.
WJ on radio:
Rolen pt if he comes back;
Choo in CF;
Bruce to play CF in ST “just in case”;
Chapman may start season in bullpen, then start, I assume to limit innings.
NO NO NO NO NO a thousand times NO!
He needs to be stretched out to somewhere in the vicinity of starter’s innings in Spring Training, because I don’t believe that they will do so during regular season games after his “stint” as a reliever. A “stint” which you KNOW certain people will look for every excuse to extend.
NO WALT, NO! BAD WALT!
@seat101: What does “Rolen pt if he comes back” mean? pt=Part time, as in part time starting 3B?
@BenL:
Yeah, part time is how WJ phrased it, I think. He didn’t say ‘bench player’ or ‘reserve’ or ‘sub’ or ‘backup’ if I heard right.
Maybe he would start day games after night games……something like that. WJ has a bigger man-crush on Rolen than I do!
@RC:
I agree!
Once in the pen, DB won’t let AC out.
Haha, put Jocketty in time out!
I said all along, if they were serious about converting Chapman they would trade a starter to make room. Instead they were careful to hold onto them all, including Leake and Tony Cingrani. If they were serious about Broxton closing he wouldn’t have had to clarify that he might be a setupman after signing. If the Reds were confident in Chapman’s ability to convert Arroyo wouldn’t have spoken out about it. If Jocketty expected Chapman to leave the bullpen he would have added a lefty reliever.
Chapman is going into spring training as a starter, like last year – to satisfy the fans – he’ll drop out of the running once they have justification or a news story to bury it behind. Fine. Strongest bullpen in the NL.
The whole organization is looking for reasons to justify returning Chapman to the closer role, it’s not just Dusty. If Jocketty only leaves one door open – a door to the bullpen – it’s not something he seriously expects Chapman to get out of.
@rfay00: I really doubt Rolen will return. That doesn’t mean they have to be rude and say that they don’t ever want to see him back with this team. If they want to be respectful, fine.
Why would they bring Rolen back now? They already have Burris, Hannahan, and Donald.
That deal just DOES NOT need to happen!!!
If Chapman starts the year in the pen, I would only hope it’s for what he started last year as…the two to three inning guy who comes in to get out of a tight jam with one out and pitches until his spot is up to bat.
@seat101: If Chapman starts the season in the bullpen, I’m not sure he’ll ever start.
The only feasible scenario would be to have Cingrani start at AAA, and Chapman in the bullpen for the Reds. At midseason, Chapman moves into the Reds rotation and Cingrani moves to the Reds bullpen. It doesn’t work with Leake because he can’t relieve.
A lot has to go right for that to happen even–individual health and performance being first, team health and performance being the second.
Color me skeptical.
@rfay00:
If he’ll not supplant Fraser, he could do a lot for the team.
But if he is anything but a bench player, and barring injury, starting more than 16.2 games, it is not a good idea. It’s Fraser’s time. It’s Fraser’s turn.
@Sultan of Swaff:
If it were almost anyone but Dusty, it might be a good idea…..
@wally mo: I get that options are for a full year. I also know that service time eventually negates options. Just like Votto doesn’t have options even though he was never optioned after he was called up. From what I was told, when I asked specifically about Leake, was that after two more weeks of service time Leake’s accumulated would negate his last option available. I don’t understand how it all works, but that’s what I was told from a guy who knows about this stuff.
I don’t see where Rolen fits in after Hannahan is signed. Rolen only plays one position and battles injuries half the year. We will have a backup SS. So we’ll have Rolen at the expense of an OF which is poor roster construction.
@hotto4votto: Rolen for Hitting Coach. Get it done, Walt.
I am playing Devil’s Advocate here. I think a team like the Cubs or Astros could use his skillsets on and off the field.
Rolen on the bench gives us depth in the minors, a “Charlie Hustle” attitude/example, a backup third baseman, a great guy to have in a fight if the WLB’s start feeling their oats again, and an extra reason for Hoosiers to come to GABP.
Scott Rolen has said many times that he does NOT want to be a hitting coach or manager when he retires. I doubt he’s changing his mind in the next few months.
If his goal is to end his career with dignity going to the Cubs or Astros is a step in the wrong direction. He won’t be earning much in a one year contract relative to what he’s earned in his career. I hope he retires and accepts some job in the Reds’ organization, like a scout, roaming hitting or fielding coach, or ‘special assistant to Walt Jocketty’, whatever that last job actually means.
@redsfanman:
I put more weight on DB’s side of the scale for the final decision the final decision on AC .
As you point out, WJ could have mooted the point by trading a starter or two, but took another tack. This makes it possible for th on-field manager to make the final decision.
I believe that WJ did the club long term good by keeping all the pitching that he did. This probably means AC stays in the Bullpen. Whether WJ actually desired this is debatable. We take opposite sides. In a friedly debate!
@redsfanman:
Rolen could be the “grand Old Man” on a team of youthful under acheivers. Sorta like Walter Matthau in “the bad News Bears” (or the Bosox) without the swearing , smoking’, and drinking.
A friendly debate that I’m enjoying.
I think Jocketty knows what decision Dusty Baker will make. Currently Dusty has two doors, two paths to follow (and something behind the ‘bullpen’ door smells nice) – if Jocketty disagrees he’s perfectly able to remove one door, like he did with leadoff by adding Shin-Shoo Choo as an obvious choice. He can remove a door by trading a starter or talking to Castellini.
If the Reds enter spring training with six (or more) starters Jocketty is the guy who set that up. If Chapman goes to the bullpen it’s just as much Jocketty’s fault (although I think it’s the right decision) as Dusty’s.
Hey, we don’t know what Rolen does in his free time. I think that as long as Rolen is on the team he’ll start some games. That’s the respect he’s earned around MLB. Joey Votto’s interview where he talked about what Rolen meant to his career was moving, and I doubt they leave a guy like that in a utility role.
“Chapman is going into spring training as a starter, like last year – to satisfy the fans – he’ll drop out of the running once they have justification or a news story to bury it behind. Fine. Strongest bullpen in the NL.”
If Chapman is again the best pitcher this coming spring like he was last spring, they will have no choice but to start him, because that is what they said they would do.
Who would your rather take a chance on for 2013; Leake or Chapman in the rotation.
No brainer. get ready to see Chapman extended. Leake remains an average pitcher, and this team is rolling the dice for greatness.
Leake can be traded breaking camp as easily as he can be traded today. The advantage of having him break camp is that you make sure you have 5 healthy starters before you trade him. Teams always have pitching needs when they go north.
@reaganspad:
Last year the Reds would have no chance but to start Chapman if he did well. You know what? He did well, but he still found his way back to the bullpen. The Reds seem far less dedicated to his conversion this year.
Who would I rather take a chance on in 2013? For what? The rotation? I think Chapman is more a matter of ‘chance’ or gamble while Leake provides more certainty with a lower ceiling. Leake can eat innings and stay healthy, we’ve seen it. If Leake goes to the bullpen it’s a waste. If Chapman goes to the bullpen he’ll dominate, no question. Leake to the rotation and Chapman to the closer role, that’s what I’d choose.
You’ve been waiting a long time for Chapman to start. The likelihood that he’ll switch has only gone down following Shin-Shoo Choo’s acquisition.
Leake can be traded any day? That’s true, but they’re done with filling their offseason needs. It’s highly unlikely that they’ll suddenly throw him away after being so reluctant to trade away ANY pitching.
@reaganspad:
But we’re talking about Dusty “no explanation necessary” Baker!
I wish I could understand this view that Chapman is the best pitcher on this team. I don’t see it. Yes he is good, but on a very limited basis as we have seen. He is much more a thrower then a pitcher. Right now if I had to rank our pitchers in who is the best it would be:
Latos
Cueto
Homer
Bronson
Marshall
Leake
Chapman
Lecure
Broxton
Simon
Logan
Hoover
I think Chapman is best suited for short brief appearances, I don’t think his body will be capable of long term pitching unless he does alot of work on his conditioning and pitch ability. I think I would rather go with Leake in the 5 spot and go with Marshall/Broxton and Chapman as the back end of the game guys. But that is just me…
Cingrani in the bullpen in 2013 doesn’t mean he stays there forever. There are quite a few teams that have brought up their better prospects with a year in the pen then moving them to the rotation.
I want Cingrani starting in AAA. He made his MLB debut out of the bullpen last season but he had jumped straight from AA after starting the season in single A. Hopefully he can pitch well in Louisville to prove that he can be should be taken seriously as a starter, since I think some people have been fair skeptical about his future. I think he has exceeded everybody’s expectations at every level (he was only drafted in 2011) while quickly rising through the farm system as a starter… and he should get a chance to continue that in AAA. If he does well I might consider moving him into the Reds’ bullpen.
Going from a AA starter to major league bullpen lefty, I think that’s a step in the wrong direction for him at this point. Maybe later in the 2012 season.
Sure it does. It’s called the Baker-Chapman Rule. Something about the vortex of gravity in the bullpen, fastballs, Hank Aaron… it’s all very, very technical. But yeah, Cingrani is screwed.
As far as taking Jocketty at his word, I think his first priority in interviews is to win people over rather than drive them away, like a (good) salesman or politician. You wanna see Chapman start? You want Chapman to close? Well, wait until spring training and we’ll come to a decision! No scaring away potential season ticket holders who refuse to watch unless they see Chapman start. He side steps the question, but look at what he’s done and I think you can come to the assumption that he expects Chapman to close.
Choo, I didn’t mean to imply that the trade was made to appease Dusty and motivate him to compromise on other fronts (Chapman’s role). I was shocked and thrilled that the Reds managed to address all their needs while retaining ALL the pitching, both at the minor and major league level – it completely changed my outlook on Chapman’s likely role. With Leake and Cingrani I feel they retained the MLB-ready starting pitching depth they need to justify keeping Chapman in the rotation.
@RC: I think Dusty’s legacy with the Cubs is most frequently associated with the ‘Bartman Game’, if you will, and injuries to Wood and Prior. He came to the Reds with major concerns amongst fans that he’d ruin the young Reds pitchers like Bailey and Cueto. I think he’s been very careful with the young pitchers, and it’s paid off. I think concerns about Chapman’s usage and the negative response from fans – no matter what role Chapman fills – probably factors into Dusty’s decision. He doesn’t want to be remembered in Cincinnati as the guy who blew out Chapman’s elbow when he could be the guy who allowed Chapman to become the most dominant closer any Reds fan had ever seen. I think the Reds knew Dusty would have such concerns when they hired and extended him.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: I agree that I’m discussing different things regarding Chapman – What I want to happen vs what I expect to happen after following the Reds (the later changed after Choo’s trade) – but in this case I think they’re the same thing. As you said I’ll believe Chapman is the closer until I see him make a major league start, and the Reds’ moves, depth, needs, priorities, ‘window of opportunity’ in the NL Central, and history makes that change seem unlikely. Dusty or Jocketty telling people what they want to hear – “oh sure, Chapman will get a great chance for the rotation”, that doesn’t mean anything. All evidence, starting with a recent 97 win season, seems to point towards the bullpen.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: In addition to cash one should look at Broxton’s reputation – is he a strong closer who other teams envy? Was he in high demand? Was he the big name on the free agent market like Ryan Madson and Francisco Cordero had been? No. He lost his job as the Dodgers’ closer in 2010 for doing badly. He joined the Royals as a setupman and only became the Royals’ closer following an injury to another guy. He could close elsewhere, but probably not for a good team. His only hope to become the Reds’ closer is for Chapman to be removed from the competition. Sean Marshall is at least as good, just he hasn’t been given a closer job to lose. I think Broxton can do the job fine, if necessary, but that they look at him more as a key setupman and a member of a new Nasty Boys bullpen.
Fortunately Tony Cingrani hasn’t headed down that path yet. Brief summary of his career: he was drafted as a closer but they moved him into the rotation after he was signed – for two minor league seasons he started full time before making 4 relief appearances with the Reds. Some scouts seem to think that his future is as a reliever but it seems like he’s done everything possible to prove otherwise. Personally I think he should be sent to join the Louisville rotation – if he pitches well scouts should start to take him (more) seriously as a starter.
You “Dustyproof” a lineup by getting rid of ineffective players that Dusty keeps running out there over and over. You “Dustyproof” a lineup by getting a leadoff hitter who has the attributes that Dusty wants in a leadoff hitter PLUS the ones that actually matter.
You don’t “Dustyproof” a pitching staff by trading away serviceable MLB or promising minor league starting pitchers solely to force a recalcitrant manager to start a guy who was always a starter, who was signed to be a starter, and who should !&*@ well be given a chance to start, just because that recalcitrant manager gets a warm fuzzy feeling knowing that this particular should-be starter occupies the totally made up and incredibly overrated position of “closer”.
I don’t buy the idea that Walt needed to trade a pitcher just to cement a spot for Chapman. But now that Walt’s gone and left the door cracked, Dusty will be doing his durned-est to kick it all the way open. And if Chap starts the this season in the pen, I kinda think he’ll never get out. At least, not while he’s a Red.
@redsfanman: I’ve heard of him mostly as a fastball/change guy. I’d like to see him pick up another pitch. AAA is the perfect place to do that, switch him to a LOOGY if and only if he can’t hack it as a starter. There are plenty of failed starters waiting to become LOOGYS out there.
@Jared Wynne: Which is apparently how I say, “yeah! I agree with you!”
@RC: I think you ‘Dusty Proof’ by making the candidate who you and Dusty Baker want into the same person. Sometimes that means eliminating bad options (6th starter), sometimes it means providing better ones (leadoff hitter who everyone approves of).
Trading a ‘serviceable MLB or promising minor league starting pitcher’ is not synonymous with releasing them or throwing them in a garbage can. If they trade, say, Mike Leake for a promising young hitter who needs more time in AAA, fine. Suddenly Dusty has 5 options and more minor league talent.
You don’t buy the idea that Jocketty needs to trade a pitcher to cement a spot for Chapman? Currently there are (at least) two good candidates for the final spot – Leake and Chapman. You’d prefer one, Dusty the other, but Dusty’s decision is the one that matters. Trade Leake and BAM, Dusty-proof, you’re both in total agreement of the selection of Chapman.
Chapman won’t get out of the bullpen with the Reds? I agree. I don’t think he should. I think he should put together a Hall of Fame caliber career as a closer. I believe he can.
Really? If I honestly thought that the organization was doing kabuki theater like that, I’d be in favor of mass firings.
A 6th starter is only a “bad option” if you never need him. We didn’t last year. It’s highly unlikely that we’ll be so lucky in 2013.
If the Reds are serious about moving the Chapman into the rotation, which they appear to be, they would be foolish to think that he can throw the number of innings next season required for a full season in the rotation. That said, they have no doubt formulated some kind of plan for how many innings they are going to allow Chapman’s 25 year old left arm to toss next season, given that he’s never thrown more than 118 in his career and having only thrown 63 and 71 the last two years. Thus they will obviously be needing someone to cover at about 10 starts next year. That’s looking like it will be Mike Leake right now. It appears to me that they understand that Chapman moving into a full time starter’s role is a two year project in order to get his innings per season stretched out to a full season. That also keeps Leake on hand in the interim to fill in for injuries to any of the starters, and to possibly take over Arroyo’s spot in the rotation the following year if he is not resigned. Chapman is far more valuable to the Reds pitching as a starter than he is coming out of the pen. Having one of your best pitchers on the mound more often can only improve your staff.
@redsfanman: Yeah, Leake has a lower ceiling than Chapman. Chapman’s is 20 ft high ceilings in a mansion, and Leake’s house just got caved in and the ceiling’s at about 5 feet.
@redsfanman: The probability of a Hall of Fame career for anyone in their 3rd year, and who will be exclusively a reliever, is diminishingly small.
Yeah, you’re right, the Hall of Fame closer suggestion is a little overboard but I think you got the idea I was trying to make. Chapman has already shown that he can be or is as good as anybody in the game today in the closer role.
@reaganspad: Still, when predicting who makes the rotation the most important point is who manages the Reds – you, me? Nope. Dusty Baker. It’s his choice, and Jocketty has seemingly done nothing to try to compel him to change his mind. In my opinion Jocketty (by keeping all the starting pitching and replacing Ryan Madson with Jonathan Broxton) has only reinforced and/or increased the likelihood of Chapman closing.
These are the Cincinnati Reds, run by old school Walt Jocketty, old school Dusty Baker, and protective Bryan Price. They value keeping pitchers healthy and on regular routines. Ideas about piggybacking with 6 starters, trading a key starter during a playoff run, starting Chapman in AAA, plans to extend Chapman’s season by limiting pitch counts and innings, I think it’s all crazy. Too crazy for the Reds.
In the 2013 playoffs I expect any of three options for Chapman:
1. Pitching out of the bullpen.
2. Starting after missing a significant amount of time with a midseason injury (hopefully unrelated to his pitching, like a broken leg).
3. Shut down like Stephen Strasburg
4. Disabled List – out with an injury that fans blame on Dusty Baker… even if the injury resulted from a decision that he opposed.
So Chapman can never become a starter?
I never said Chapman couldn’t become a starter, I said I don’t see that as being likely with the Reds. They are going all in for 2013 – if they were rebuilding it might be another story. Instead they won 97 games with Chapman in the closer role and all the signs (including team success) point to him returning to that role in which he was so successful.
Will Chapman start or not? It makes me think back to the recent presidential election. Obama continuously led in polls all the swing states he needed to win – Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada – the evidence was there to predict the likely winner. Similarly I think we can make a realistic prediction now that Chapman will return to the bullpen…. unless there’s an injury or trade of a starter before opening day.
redsfanman
I am not talking about throwing Leake away. I am talking about going through Spring Training with him on the team, making sure that the staff is healthy. Even then, Leake and Chapman can piggyback the first half of the year, and who knows, in July you drop Bronson. Teams are always trading for pitching.
Leake has not shown the stuff that will allow him to pitch for this team in post season, but he could take Bronson’s role as durable guy, 5th starter.
sorry but if Broxton can close 40 games and blow 5 saves, why would you need Chapman there. Championship teams have left handed starters. We are building a championship team, not a team to just win the division.
I would agree that if a second perfect storm occurred where Broxton gets hurt, Marshall goes to the DL, Hoover gets waived, Massett never comes back… and the team bus at triple A backs over the bullpen, then yes, Chapman could be closing again. But if there is any degree of health, we get 164 innings of Chapman next year
with the exception that Chapman is probably the best athlete on the team, has started before, and has a pitching coach who is not concerned with him being able to handle pitch counts.
I do understand what you are saying redsfanman, but old school right lefty batting order likes righty lefty pitching rotations. Nothing more old school than that.
Woods and Prior were not enough to get it done. throw a lefty effectively in between them and maybe we never hear the name bartman
speaking of Broxton and old school, you think they signed a 7 million dollar pitcher to pitch the 7th inning for the next 3 years? really
Arizona GM Kevin Towers is having some trouble with the fans. Somebody sabotaged his Wikipedia trade following the Didi Gregorius-Trevor Bauer trade.
http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/blog/eye-on-baseball/21376367/the-wiki-war-on-kevin-towers-has-begun
Cincinnati Reds Active Roster
Infielders
Zack Cozart
Jason Donald
Todd Frazier
Donald Lutz
Brandon Phillips
Henry Rodriguez
Neftali Soto
Joey Votto
Outfielders
Jay Bruce
Shin-Soo Choo
Chris Heisey
Ryan Ludwick
Xavier Paul
Yorman Rodriguez
@reaganspad: Whether or not Chapman has started before is irrelevant; he hasn’t started in years. Cases like his involve teams setting inning limits and ending seasons prematurely to protect the prized arm.
Do I think the Reds paid $7m/year to a setupman in Jonathan Broxton? Yes. Up from about $5m/year to Marshall the year before that. Jocketty wanted to sure up the bullpen and he did just that. Marshall-Broxton-Chapman, that’s an enviable trio of capable closers. I’m not sure if that’s better or worse than The Nasty Boys, but it’s as close to a lock down back end of the bullpen that you’ll find in MLB today.
Kerry Wood and Mark Prior, Dusty probably still hears about them. He RUINED their careers. Evil, bad Dusty. All his fault. Yada yada. It’s been years, but I’ll bet he still hears that. He’ll hear the EXACT SAME THING if Chapman moves to the rotation and gets hurt, and he knows it.
Again, really? Decisions as fundamental as this are made in fear of fan reaction? Again, if this were true, Castellini should clean house. Some group of fans will criticize every move that every manager will ever make. Nobody should be listening to us, no matter how much we think otherwise.
I disagree that the acquisition of Choo and the failure to move a pitcher indicates anything regarding Chapman’s destination in 2013. However, Jocketty’s statement *does* mean something – it contradicts some of his earlier statements, and gives momentum to Dusty and others in the organization who clearly prefer to never explore the depth of a dominant pitcher’s potential. If it turns out that Chap is a closer (grrrr) again, I will be seriously ticked. I’m sure the Reds will give my feelings all the consideration they deserve. Maybe more.
@RC:
It probably went down like this: “Dusty, I understand you refuse to see Aroldis as a possible starter and make this team great. I don’t want to bicker in public, that’s not how I work. Here’s how it goes… you get what you want with Aroldis, I’m going to get you a leadoff hitter that has a high OBP, and you’re going to have to use him. Choke on that.”
@redsfanman:
As much as I like and admire SRolen, I think his presence will be a distraction unless his role as backup is clearly stated and agreed to.
I am in the camp that DBaker has qualities WJocketty likes; handling the players and personnel decisions (coaches particularly, and mental toughness. Otoh, I think WJ would prefer a manager less dogmatic and more open to new ideas.
I really believe “Dusty Proofing” is part of his MO.
I think Jocketty just had his chance to push for manager who was ‘less dogmatic and more open to new ideas’. Instead he approved the Reds’ extension of Dusty Baker. I think Jocketty knows what he can expect from Dusty by now and apparently he’s satisfactory.
I think Jocketty’s mission is to improve the Reds, and the ways to do that were pretty obvious, albeit vague – acquire a leadoff hitter while trying to retain the 2012 (and future) pitching staff. Things that are frequently blamed on Dusty (no leadoff hitter, bad bench players) are often the GM’s responsibility to fix. I think they work as a team (with Dusty getting and accepting the blame when things go wrong) and a perceived battle between them is sometimes blown out of proportion. Chapman’s role is critical to the future of the organization, it’s a decision that includes people other than Dusty.
There are a total of 39 players on the active roster right now. Once Hannahan is officially signed, that will take the total to 40. In order to add anyone else (Rolen?), someone has to be removed from the active roster, DFA’d, traded or outright released.
You know, we actually agree on a lot. Getting a new manager was a move neither needed, wanted, or necessary. Particularly if the personnel changes “Dusty Proofed” the decisions ” Dusty could make.
“and all the signs (including team success) point to him returning to that role in which he was so successful.”
redsfanman, like your posts but we have to disagree here. all signs point at Chapman starting. Your explanation of this team spending $21 million for a 7th inning guy just does not hold water. That is closer money.
Left handed starters are what championship teams have on their roster. As you said, they are going for it in 2013, which is why Chapman starts.
I do not believe the Dusty ruined Prior and Wood, even though he does things I do not agree with. I actually think that Dusty is easy on his pitchers now with this pen. I think he is a little too much Captain Hook
I don’t understand how it’s obvious that Broxton is getting closer money when he’s “only” getting 7M per year. I have to agree with RFM on this. If 5M for Marshall definitely isn’t stopper money, I don’t see how 7M is definitely stopper money. I can’t say he won’t be the stopper for sure, but it’s not like they paid him 12M per year.
I for one take WJ at his word. The Reds would not have committed so much money to their bullpen otherwise.
Also, I think all this talk of the Reds going “all in” is overblown. This roster has a pretty decent mix of short and long term players.
You seem like a rational fellow. And you take what Jocketty says seriously?
Perhaps you’ll be right, but it seems far fetched to me.
@dn4192: Notice that five of your top six Reds pitchers, according to your own rankings, are starters. Think about what that means, and think about how that might apply to Aroldis. If relievers aren’t worth all that much, and Chapman ranks in the back half of the team, why wouldn’t it be a good idea to see if he can be valuable as a starter instead? With your rankings, they’re just toying with a middling reliever anyway.
“But we don’t know, we don’t know if he can, we just don’t know, he hasn’t proven it”…. I’m pretty sure that he can outpitch Mike Leake over 150 innings with his off-hand. And I like Mike Leake, I’m just saying, Aroldis is special. If you have to have experience in a job before you get the job, exactly how is baseball going to continue on?
I guess we disagree on Chapman being “special” as I don’t see it. He has 1 pitch and when it’s on it is near impossible to hit, problem is if it’s not he is in trouble and the really good hitters can figure out when to go after his pitch. To be “special” he must develop a consistant 2nd top level pitch and have a 3rd pitch available to him he can throw for strikes. He doesn’t have either of those right now. He also has a body make up and motion that SCREAMS injury after injury. I still believe Chapman’s value to this team is via trade, not on the mound for the Reds.
@redsfanman: There are two different things you are discussing. First is what *should* Chapman be doing? Well, I want him starting. Yes, they are all in this year, but that doesn’t move me to say he should be in the pen. I just happen to believe that if the starter thing doesn’t work out, you can put him back in the pen. I don’t see a huge problem there. Injury wise, I see no evidence that he’s any more likely to be injured in the rotation as in the bullpen.
Second is what the Reds will do. I have never, ever, thought that he will step on the mound as a starter with the Reds since the day that they made him the closer last year. No matter what is said, until I see him start a game in the regular season, I will believe he’ll be the stopper.
@redsfanman: Just to be clear, if no one is hurt and Choo consistently bats 7th and Cozart leads off, Baker should get the ax.
No, I don’t think that will happen, but…you never know.
Or if Baker uses Choo in the bullpen as a LOOGY.
I like the Choo acquisition. There was a steep price to be paid (Gregorius); but, it was a deal that needed to be made for the Reds in the present.
I think years from now when all us said and done, Gregorius won’t have been another Jeter in overall impact. However, barring injury he may at least border on matching Concepcion’s career. And he likely will have a better individual career than Zack Cozart (excepting a little bit of an edge in power to Cozart, their minor league numbers are essentially the same; and, the age advantage to Gregorius would indicate he will mature into a better player).
The point I want to make here is that I hope folks get out of the habit of calling the Reds a small market team, in particular when things don’t work out for them. Small market teams don’t trade the type and quantity of talent the Reds traded last year for Latos/ Marshal and have traded this year for Choo. They keep those guys and trade the Vottos, Phillips, Bruces, and Cuetos etc.
So if it doesn’t work it will be because WJ traded the wrong guys or for the wrong guys not because the Reds are a “small market” team.
First of all, I disagree about Didi – I think he’s really overrated and you sound like Kevin Towers, the DBacks GM
Like Yonder Alonso the Reds didn’t have any use for him so I’m glad he was moved.
As far as the Reds being a small market team, their payroll has increased in recent years but most of that money is spent on long term contracts for current Reds players. Maybe they qualify as ‘mid-market’ or whatever now. The main point is that the Reds don’t have a lot of payroll flexibility to go out and add new players; most cash they have is already locked up. Most acquisitions have to be completed by exchanging players rather than outbidding the Dodgers and Yankees.
@redsfanman: I think Gregorious is overrated also, but it’s not like he’s blocked by the best player in baseball. It wasn’t the same situation as Alonso. The Reds probably could have traded Cozart and just plugged in Gregorious and been ok, especially with the offense being added with Choo.
That said, I like moving the guy who doesn’t project to be a good hitter AND has barely taken a major league at bat.
I will say, I haven’t read all the comments, just so many. So, I thought I would just comment on who would be on the 25 man opening day roster (not talking of something special like holding back the 5th man until their start to get another bat for the first 4 games).
I don’t think Masset will be in there, still recovering or either be let go, aka what we did with Burton. It’s been so long since he’s pitched with us, I don’t think we hold onto him too much longer. We do have Hoover for that position.
Honestly, I like Logan more than Arredondo. I believe the thing with Logan was he was a bit overused. Baker has used Logan at the beginning of each season, I believe, looking at a 70-80 appearance reliever. I don’t believe Logan may be that strong of a pitcher. Or, if he is, just don’t keep pitching him 2 games then resting one. That’s a pace of over 100 appearances. No need for that when other pitchers on the team aren’t even getting 50 or even 40 appearances for the entire season. Also, from what I recall, at the beginning of last year, Logan has a scoreless inning streak similar to Chapman. Not saying Logan is Chapman. But, I will say, used effectively, I believe Logan is a good pitcher. Logan is also a bit cheaper. As well as, having that 6’8″ frame, it would be different for the batters to see, for example, Cueto on the mound then Logan come out. So, I would have to say adios to Jose.
I would send Leake to Louisville for starting pitching depth. He comes up before Redmond and may even be up quicker than that if Chapman doesn’t handle starting, which I am still not convinced of. Talent in Chapman yes. But, starting ability proven at this level, he hasn’t shown. As well as, I want to see the other things, like holding runners on, fielding, etc., things that closers normally aren’t concerned with.
If we get the loogy, I would have to say Simon or Lecure may be gone to make room. Sorry to see it, but someone has to leave to make room. Some may say Hoover. But, there is something about him I like and want to see what he can do with us first. If Chapman fails at starting, he goes back to closing, Leake comes up, and the other of Simon/Lecure may be on the block.
All of this, I believe for everyone here, is just speculation, fantasy baseball if you will, and simply depends upon how the individual would build their team. My team, I wouldn’t have changed the pitching staff from last opening day. That’s what carried the team last year. Why change it?
I still think we need a better 4 hole hitter. I just don’t think Ludwick will do for Votto what Fielder will do for Braun or Halliday was for Pujols. I would have gone with BP and Cozart in the 1-2 holes, myself, and look for the 4 hole hitter. But, if you can’t find that, which I assume we couldn’t, Choo is a great plan B.
I believe RLudwick will come up to bat with lfewer than two outs and at least one runner on base.
I believe JBruce will no longer be our number second inning leadoff hitter virtually every game.
I believe TLaRussa is very smart, loyal to those whom he feels he owes it, and is a small spiteful man at the same time.
I believe there will be less hair pulling over DBaker on this board. Still, when I disagree with him it is only fair I share my feelings with him as to how he can get back on the path to glory.
I believe others will feel the same way.
I believe this team can be as magnificent as the 2012 team which tore up the league when Joey Votto went down.
That is what I believe.
Anyone else looking forward to Cueto vs. Weaver on opening day?
Trout, Pujols, Trumbo
Phillips, Votto, Bruce
Then the next day Latos vs. Wilson.
Wow. What a way to start the season!
It’ll also be a nice way to end the 2013 season. In the World Series with a win in a 7 game series. Winning game 7 at home with Tony Cingrani striking out the side in the 9th inning in a 4-3 win.
@rfay00: Actually, I’m not looking forward to that. I think it’s an abomination that the Reds have to open vs an AL team. (But at least it’s an interesting AL team, I’ll give you that.)
Eh, yeah I kinda forgot the whole AL vs. NL everyday of the year thing.
I guess we are at an advantage seeing they don’t get a DH.
I’m looking forward to the Choo Choo train in the bottom of the first.
Hannahan is now official, 2 years with a club option. I didn’t see $$$ details, but I imagine it’s $2MM per year for each of the 3 years. That puts the roster at a full 40, barring another transaction to remove someone. The only possible need to address before the season starts (and this could wait until the final club releases at the end of spring training if necessary) might be a LOOGY for the bullpen to augment Marchall and Arredondo (reverse splits).
#1 LH .289/.381/.465/.847 Shin-Soo Shoo (thru 2013)
#2 RH .273/.322/.429/.750 Brandon Phillips (thru 2017)
#3 LH .316/.415/.553/.968 Joey Votto (thru 2024)
#4 RH .263/.334/.466/.799 Ryan Ludwick (thru 2015)
#5 LH .255/.330/.483/.813 Jay Bruce (thru 2017)
#6 RH .264/.323/.485/.808 Todd Frazier (thru 2017)
#7 RH .275/.370/.390/.729 Ryan Hanigan (thru 2013)
#8 RH .251/.290/.405/.694 Zack Cozart (thru 2017)
It looks like WJ has crossed off a lot of items from his to-do list this off-season. I’m sure there will be a couple of guys signed to minor league contracts with invites to spring training for competitions sake. Contract negotiations will now take the place on the front burner. Have the arbitration hearings coming up and most players will probably sign before those hearings are held. Extensions for Bailey and Latos are, or should be, a priority. Those two should get about the same contract, in the neighborhood of 4yr/$40MM deals. Nice neighborhood to be in.
Question I have been pondering…
What if Rafeal Soriano and his agent are open to a Ryan Madson type deal for next year with the Reds. Do the Reds do it?
Is this likely? No. Just throwing it out there.
I don’t want Soriano anywhere near the Reds dugout.
^^^^^^^^That should have been 4 yr./$30-40MM deals.
As I read all the comments I noticed a question that popped up time and time again regarding the bench. The bench consists of 5 guys including the backup catcher. Since we know there will be 2 catchers who will split time starting, we will count the bench as 4 players.
5 SP
7 RP
3 OF
4 IF
2 C
—
21 Players… that leaves 4 spots for bench/role players.
Typically the bench carries 2 OFs, but not always. Provided he’s not traded, Heisey is a lock. If there is a 2nd bench OF (5th OF) XP is probably a lock.
This leaves 2 bench spots for the IF. Currently those spots are filled by Hannahan, Donald, and Burriss. (We’ll talk about Rolen in just a second.)
Burriss is currently the only backup middle-IF on the 40-man. That does not make me feel warm and fuzzy. Burriss < Valdez/Cairo… but you need a backup MIF. Donald and Hannahan are redundant. Both are corner IFs. I prefer Rolen to either provided Rolen is used properly. Donald is on the 40-man AND out of options. That will have to factored. Likely he'll have to be outrighted risking him to the waiver process. I do like him for bench depth but not in Cincinnati.
Ok, so as of today Hannahan at $2M is a lock. Heisey is a lock. A middle IF (currently Burriss) is a lock. That means if Rolen comes back, XP is the odd man out. Frazier becomes your 5th OF and backup 1B. Hannahan is your lefty off the bench. Burriss is a switch-hitter.
It will be a crime if Burriss is on the 25-man April 1st rather than XP.
@TC: You mean the bullpen? Just want to make sure you know who I am talking about.
@rfay00:
They’re in the same ballpark……
Hey Hank Aaron
“I don’t understand how it’s obvious that Broxton is getting closer money when he’s “only” getting 7M per year. I have to agree with RFM on this. If 5M for Marshall definitely isn’t stopper money”
we paid Madsen 8 mil last year to be our closer. everyone choked over paying Coco 10 mil per year, even though at the time, I understood and liked the contract. We had to pay MORE for Coco to be a Red at the time. MORE as in we overpayed for a closer
yes $7.0 mil is closer money.
@steveschoen: Ryan Ludwick isn’t Matt Holliday or Prince Fielder but he had a great 2008 season hitting cleanup behind Albert Pujols, who won the MVP that season. After Ludwick’s 2012 season I see no reason why Ludwicka can’t perform well in that role to give Joey Votto another serious shot at the MVP. I that Ludwick was replaceable but I think he’s a capable or good cleanup hitter.
As far as Shin-Shoo Choo, the leadoff spot was the obvious problem in the 2012 lineup, not Ludwick. Maybe he was Plan B – he’s second in OBP by leadoff hitters with over 300 ABs, behind Mike Trout. If the Reds’ priority was OBP out of the leadoff spot NOBODY available – not even Michael Bourn – was as good as Choo in 2012.
Back to the Chapman topic, I think there are three points of view: What I want, what the Reds want, and what’s best for Chapman.
1. What I want: I want him to close. He’s dominant and they have starting pitching depth. The current priority is winning the World Series in 2013.
2. What the Reds want: I think they want to win, keep everyone healthy, and build on what has worked in 2012. I think that points towards Chapman closing.
3. What’s best for advancing Chapman’s career: Starting before being shut down early due to an inning limit like Stephen Strasburg and Mike Leake. Unfortunately nobody wants him sitting on the bench in the playoffs. People would call for Dusty and Jockety to be fired if he sat out like Strasburg, but doing that is in the best interests of his career.
@Shchi Cossack: Keep in mind that Jocketty won’t pursue a good LHP if he expects Chapman to return to the bullpen. I wouldn’t recommend paying a lot of attention to the free agent lefties.
@WVRedlegs: Yeah, there’s not much news to look for. Questions like Chapman’s role and Bruce vs Choo for CF won’t be answered until spring training. The speculation about player acquisitions has pretty much dried up, now it’s just a question of contract extensions and filling the AAA roster… or adding competition for the 25th roster spot. It SHOULD make it much easier for me to focus on work from now on. Yay for a few days, weeks, or months of productivity.
Now I am getting a little worried about Defense in CF . . . Heisey was inconsistent in CF and he is going to be our defensive replacement out there.
Choo has the arm, there is no doubt about that. Bruce and Choo can throw laser beams.
The knock from Indians fans has been his angles and breaks on fly balls. I hope he is ready for the challenge come opening day!
I think it’s premature to worry about Choo in CF. There’s still a good chance that Bruce will switch to CF instead regardless of the preliminary announcements – the Reds said he’d work on it in the spring. It will be an interesting situation for Dusty to manage and a great opportunity for Chris Heisey.
I would prefer Bruce but having hear nary a whisper Jay to CF, I am not holding my breath.
Especially if the Reds toy with the idea of extending him for another 3-5 years. I think they want to pay corner OF prices on the extension, not the CF rate.
I believe it was Walt Jocketty who said in a radio interview the other day that Bruce would get a look in CF in spring training before they make a final decision. Jay Bruce has suggested signing an extension but Jocketty has implied that that is premature as he’s already under contract long term. IF Bruce (or Choo) moves to CF it will be a one year assignment and I think everyone knows that. Choo would sign a big free agent contract as a corner outfielder and Billy Hamilton is set to take over in CF.
If Bruce stays in RF he could realistically win a Gold Glove. If he moves to CF for 2013 I think you can cross his name out of consideration for that award. If anything a conversion to a defensive position where he’ll field worse might harm Bruce’s leverage for negotiating.
@reaganspad: We’re just not going to agree. What I want, what’s the Reds want, and what’s best for Chapman are different issues. Chapman was forced into the rotation out of necessity but the opportunity gave the Reds an opportunity to see what he could do in that role. Their priority is to win and they won 97 games. They worked hard to bring back the same bullpen. Whatever the goals were for Chapman’s future I think they’ve changed in the eyes of the Reds’ organization. Chapman could face a two year process to convert him into David Price – that’s in his best interests but, considering his contract length, I don’t think starting that process is in the best interest of the Reds. Not while the Reds are already the favorites in the NL Central and in the midst of their ‘window of opportunity’.
Heisey was only inconsistent when he didn’t get any playing time. You can’t expect for anyone to have their game skills ready when they don’t play. It’s not like riding a bike. While they can still be swinging a bat and throwing the ball, there is no substitute for gametime situations.
@TC: Emmanual Burriss signed a minor league contract and I don’t think that gives him any edge up over guys who have performed well on the MLB roster like Xavier Paul. I think Burriss making the roster is an assumption fans make to justify trashing the Reds – Reds must, by default, choose the worst case scenario. Like how some fans, before the trade, expected Stubbs to lead off on opening day. Also, Burriss isn’t the only long shot candidate for a utility infield spot – Henry Rodriguez is one also.
Is it a crime if Burriss beats Xavier Paul for a roster spot? I think it depends on how Paul hits in spring training. Does Xavier Paul deserve a roster spot based on last year if he struggles in spring training? I’m not sure. Lots of fans were angry about Cairo and Valdez getting roster spots due to prior accomplishments.
Donald and Hannahan aren’t redundant, one is a righthanded hitting shortstop and the other is a left handed hitting corner infielder. Frazier and Rolen, both righthanded thirdbasemen, they are redundant.
Rolen, I’m not clear on how he could be ‘used properly’. Whenever he played in 2012 Dusty faced criticism, regardless of how well or how badly he did. In 2013 he’d play too much or not enough, either way there would be disagreement. I’m glad the Reds moved on from that with Hannahan.
I’m interested in how JJ Hoover and Tony Cingrani do in 2013. Either of them could be a future closer. Chapman will cease being the Reds’ closer in the next few years for one of any number of possible reasons.
@reaganspad: Ryan Madson did get a lot of money. All the news articles at the time, however, mentioned how he was signing for a discount, way below market value, and as a good bargain for the Reds. Many people expected him to get at least $10m, $12m/year… or more. Big closer money, like the Reds once gave to Francisco Cordero. The Reds paid a lot of money to Marshall and Broxton, not necessarily closer money but enough to keep them from pursuing a closer job with another team. Does that money make Broxton or Marshall the closer? I don’t think so.
Yes. Under no circumstances should Burriss be on the Opening Day roster barring multiple injuries. The guy had one extra-base hit (double) in 150 AB last year. Negative defensive metrics. Never walks. .213/.270/.221 last year (not a typo).
I agree it shouldn’t, but Burriss is an IF, Paul is an OF. The error in my post is that Donald can play MIF as well. Burriss was the ONLY middle IF on the 40-man in my mind. That would pretty much guarantee a position regardless of his contract status. But since Donald is also a MIF my point was incorrect.
I think in the 5 years I’ve posted here that I’ve proven that is not the case with me.
That is a very good point. The only reservation I have is that HRod as a utility player is that he played 2B through the minors until last year. In his 451 minor league games he played 322 games at 2B. He played 87 (60 last year) games at 3rd with moderate to poor results and 38 games at SS with disastrous results. They moved him from 2B to 3B last year after Phillips’ extension hoping to keep his excellent hitting skills relevant to the big leagues. He did okay in AA, but struggled at 3B in Louisville. (I think as a result of being moved he suffered a bit at the plate.) Perhaps can use that experience to be a backup 3rd and 2nd, but not SS. And not until his hitting recovers.
Mmmmm, here I disagree. Paul didn’t have a great spring last year, but showed that he could be an important contributor to the club when given a chance during the regular season. Based upon the fact that Paul did well with the Reds last year and Burriss did not do well with another club I think it would take more than good numbers in spring for Burriss to beat out Paul to make the roster. But that’s just my opinion.
I think you would agree there would be a way to use Rolen that would benefit the club and NOT take innings away from Frazier. My thought would be to be to use him as the first bat off the bench, late inning substitution, with a very occasional start. Moreover, to use him as a guide for the younger players with whom he will have plenty of time to teach while he watches the game from the dugout.
Yes, of course. Point taken.
Your reply didn’t irritate like usual. You were able to disagree without being abrasive this time. I might have to reconsider my plans to burn your house down.
If I remember correctly, didn’t HRod have a hand or thumb injury last year and played thru the injury. That would make most players hitting drop off. I would expect HRod’s hitting to rebound this year at Louisville, if he stays healthy. Does anybody know if he is playing winter ball anywhere??
@redsfanman: No one has discussed it much but I heard the thinking from the front office was to ‘flip’ the Strasburg model. Chapman gets starter work, begins the season in the bullpen where there is always need for another lefty (and Cingrani continues to start in AAA) and moves into the rotation sometime around the All Star Break.
Come playoffs, Champman will have thrown 100 innings with the ability to space to pitch either role depending on the circumstances.
I think it’s the most logical approach but it will take real mental fortitude on the part of Chapman to make a mid-season transition but if any pitching coach can make it happen, it’s Bprice.
redsfanman,
I understand that you want Chapman to close
“1. What I want: I want him to close. He’s dominant and they have starting pitching depth. The current priority is winning the World Series in 2013.
2. What the Reds want: I think they want to win, keep everyone healthy, and build on what has worked in 2012. I think that points towards Chapman closing.”
Your assumption 2 is flawed because Chapman was starting up to injury (the things that didn’t work in 2012). He was dominate as a starter in spring training and was much better than Leake.
And guys make the jump from bullpen to rotation all of the time without getting hurt (David Price) and most are not constructed like Chapman. That, and the best thing for your top pitcher is to pitch in a set pattern. every 5th day will be a benefit for Chapman and will be the best way to keep him healthy. We have seen him break down each of the past 2 years from relieving.
your arguments have flaws and we still disagree
If Choo has a great year this year, and Ludwick has a year similar to last year, assuming that BHam goes to CF in 2014, would the Reds sign Choo to an extension to play LF and let Ludwick go via a trade next off season???? Just wondering.
@WVRedlegs: I think we’d all wish that, but if Choo has a great year, a Boras client in a walk year is going to get very, very expensive to sign long term. Falls under possible, but not probable.
If we bring in Rolen, I start wondering about the payroll for 2013, as well as the headaches that could cause with the lineup if not the fans, also. Frazier deserves his chance. If any move with him, it should be to another position, the one he says he favors, LF, but we have Ludwick in there now.
Hannahan is different than Donald and Burris. Hannahan is a corner IF, the others more middle IF. If Rolen comes back, Hannahan goes somewhere. The opening day roster will come to Donald and Burris. I would have to say Burris in that case. He and Donald are similar players except Burris can bat from both sides. But then, do any of the three (Burris, Donald, and Burris) have any options left?
@Matt WI:
I was just wondering. Votto could have a 140 RBI season in that scenario with BHam and Choo batting before him. Phillips could bat 4th and possibly could have his first 100 RBI season. And Bruce, if he doesn’t reach it this year could also have his first 100 RBI season. Just take the $7.5MM that would have gone to Ludwick, and with Arroyo’s salary coming off the books after next season, I think there could be room to sign him. But being a Borass client does negate it some.
All the handwringing about whether Chapman will start this year is a waste of time.
Chapman WILL BE a starting pitcher, unless there are multiple injuries again in the bullpen, or unless he is not up to the task of starting.
Chapman would have been a starter last year if the Reds had not lost their closer Madson, their 7th inning guy Masset, and their lefty Bray before spring training had begun in earnest. You lose three key bullpen pitchers, you are forced to go with Plan B.
Chapman will be a starter, because he will put fannies in the seats. He’s a surefire sellout every 5th day, which is crucial when your team payroll has risen like the Reds has (approx. $100 Mil this year). More importantly, he will be a starter because he is much more valuable as a dominant starter than as a dominant closer. That’s why starters can land $160 Mil contracts.
Who wants to get 60 innings out of Aroldis, when we can get 160? Certainly not the Reds.
@earmbrister: I like that view of Chapman and hope it works out that way.
Unless Choo is really atrocious in center field — and I don’t think that would be the case — I think the Reds would be best served to keep Bruce in right field since we’re only talking about one year here. If Bruce were to start the season in one of his notorious arctic freezes at the plate, I can envision a great outcry that his new position is weighing on him at the plate, too. We know going in that we will be trading some defense for the offensive upgrade.
I agree with earmbrister on Chapman, but keep posting redsfanman, I am with you most of the time.
Chapman in 2010 pitched 109 innings and started 13 games. He was a starter the previous years.
in 2010 in 109 innings, he walked 57
in 2012 in 71 innings, he walked 23
24 walks in 2010 is another 10 innings worth of pitches…
Leake in his first year out of asu made 22 starts and pitched 140 innings
There is no reason that Chapman can’t handle 150-160 innings in 2013 and remain healthy. remember, his injuries and fatigue have come each of the last 2 years in relief.
The only thing that makes sense for the team and Chapman is to have him pitch every fifth day on a pitch count. Dusty is worse at managing relievers than starters these days.
and the best thing for a championship team is to have a LH #1 starter split Cueto and Latos in the postseason.
first half of 2013, let Chapman piggyback Leake. Leake starts and goes 5. Chapman pitches 2-4 innings for the first half season. By all star break, Chapman is starting and runs through the post season.
13 starts at 4 innings per game in the first half of the year is 52 innings. 13 starts in the second half at 5 innings is 65. Then you have 20-30 inning in the playoffs.
Chapman pitches every 5th day, prepares as a starter, and is available for the stretch run.
Price is a smart guy, he can figure this out. They do it with young arms every year
That’s good. His decline to mediocrity was a bit startling. Glad to know there was a reason.
@TC: My reply didn’t irritate as usual and you will reconsider burning my house down as a result? SWEET! If you change your mind I live within the I-275 loop so you can start with burning houses in there.
I think it’s just a matter of issues like Chapman’s use and Stubbs’ value being more controversial and open to debate while the bench is much more straightforward.
I think Hannahan will take some starts from Todd Frazier in the form of a platoon (more than a worse hitter like Burriss or Costanzo), but I expect that would be received much better (as smarter managing) than benching Frazier for another righthanded hitter.
Uh oh. Opening Day just got scarier. Hamilton to Angles for five years, reportedly… http://tracking.si.com/2012/12/13/angels-josh-hamilton-agree-to-deal/?eref=sihp
Eh, that’s just a few games. More importantly he stayed in the American League.
The money flowing on the west coast is just absurd. They are making the Yankees and Red Sox look downright mid-market.
Pujols and Hamilton on the same team and after throwing all that money at Grienke?! And Bud can tell us all about the ‘level playing field’ . . .
I was wanting to attend opening day anyway, but this news just seals it. I wonder what the Reds fans reaction to J Hamilton will be when he comes to bat for the first time?? A standing ovation? Or a smattering of applause? Or a houseful of Woooooooo’s?
My money is on a very enthusiastic cheer.
Maybe the first and last series of the season next year will be with the Angels.
@vegastypo: @reaganspad:
I hope I’m right about Chapman, cause if so, it should be an exciting and successful year.
dn4192
I think you underestimate his slider. While it might not be above average, with his stuff, it buckles opposing hitters.
I would agree that a change needs to be added with his fastball
that said, I think you are mis-remembering his control. if you are thinking of 2010, yes it was not good.
But in 2012, he was excellent. 23 walks in 71 innings was the best for any Reds reliever (save Marshall), and he only gave up 35 hits. and struck out 122 of course. And Marshall has a rep for not walking guys.
and the other relievers were giving up a hit per inning.
as a starter, I see the need for him to go to 75% fastballs from 95. a 2 seam fastball from Chapman would be very interesting
I can actually see Chapman get better as he learns how to pitch and command an additional pitch or 2.
Those looking for a LH reliever forget that Cingrani was a reliever in college and at this point has 2 above average pitches. Perhaps they could use him in that spot.