2013 Reds

Dexter Fowler boomlet?

Reading in a couple places today the suggestion that Dexter Fowler might be a possible trade target for the Reds. John Fay speculates:

But Fowler is ideal. He hit .300 with a .389 on-base percentage and .474 slugging percentage last year. He made $2.3 million and is abitration-eligible for the second time. He’s only 26 and the Reds would control him for two years. That works well. Top prospect Billy Hamilton is a year or two away.

But, again, the price would be steep. The Reds would probably have to give up either Daniel Corcino or Tony Cingrani, two top pitching prospects, as part of the package.

Fowler *might* be an upgrade over Drew Stubbs. But his home/away splits are a huge concern. He success seems tied to the friendly confines and high altitudes of Denver. Fowler’s career slash outside of Coors Field: .248/.331/.367. Despite his speed, he’s not very good at stealing bases. In the past three seasons, Fowler has stolen 37 bases (and caught 21! times). Over that time he’s hit 24 home runs.

Stubbs career: .241/.312/.386. In the past three seasons, Stubbs has 51 home runs and 100 stolen bases (23 CS).

Is Fowler better than Stubbs in CF? Meh. I surely wouldn’t give up the farm, or even an important piece of it, to find out.

138 thoughts on “Dexter Fowler boomlet?

  1. i agree it would be better to pass on Fowler given that cost, those road splits seem lousy, even considering playing games at SF, LA, SD as notable pitcher parks plus some pretty good pitching.

  2. I agree with the splits outside Coors. However, he did hit well in GABP last season. And, for his career so far, he has hit well in St. Louis, GABP, and Pittsburgh as well. If it’s just Corcino or Cingrani, maybe with a couple other smaller players for a package, I say pull the trigger. Even with his low BA, it’s still better than Stubbs. As well as, his OBP is way better than Stubbs. He won’t be called on to steal many bases, Votto will hopefully be driving him in.

  3. The biggest value in obtaining Fowler would be WJ’s ability to protect the lineup from Mr. Baker. Fowler is a switch-hitting CF to hit leadoff. Mr. Baker would plug him into the #1 slot and leave him there. That in and of itself is a big benefit. Fowler had a monster year last year with a BABIP of .390. I don’t think that’s sustainable, so the Reds shouldn’t pay for his 2012 performance, but Fowler’s performance for each of the past 3 years has improved compared to Stubbs’ performance for each of the past 3 years has deteriorated.

  4. As was inferred above, GABP as a home park for Fowler is probably a wash at worst compared to Coors as a home park. Plus parkwise, the rest of the NL central is pretty much an antithesis of the rest of NL West.

    He would come with only two years of club control guaranteed; so, there is the need to be careful not to overpay. To that end, I think sending both Cingrani and Corcino might be too much. But there is certain room for WJ to deal.

  5. In critiquing Fowler’s split home and away from Coors Field, you need to look at Stubb’s splits home and away from GABP too. Stubbs BA is .040 higher at home than away. His OBP is .040 higher at home than away and his SLG is .090 higher at home than away. Fowler’s BA is .040 higher at home than away. His OBP is .050 higher at home than away and his SLG is .120 higher at home than away. A major plus is that Fowler hits against RHP & LHP equally well. There is no question that Fowler is a significant upgrade over Stubbs, especailly hitting leadoff. The question is at what cost.

  6. I’m gla someone else caught this too. ESPN’s Buster Olney has gone so far as to write that he believe the Reds will trade for Fowler.

    Someone mentioned the Reds could do a Leake for De Ava trade.

    • From MLBTR:

      The Twins might not receive much more than a No. 4 starter in exchange for Josh Willingham, an AL executive tells Phil Mackey of 1500 ESPN Twin Cities Radio. “There’s no doubt Josh has a very good contract, but I really doubt a team would trade a viable starting pitcher for a guy with a strong bat but who is limited defensively,” the executive said. “It’s a lot easier to find a left-field or DH-type than to trade a good starting pitcher for one and then have to backfill the rotation spot.” The 33-year-old Willingham is owed $14MM through 2014 and posted an .890 OPS last season, but another AL executive says Denard Span is a better trade chip for Minnesota.

      That would be a Leake for Willingham deal and the Twins could sign Ludwick for LF to fill Willinghan’s spot on a 3 year contract.

    • In the same article referenced above, Fay further speculates:

      I think it’s much more likely that the Reds go smaller and add a left-handed hitter to share center field with Drew Stubbs. Stubbs was fine against left-handers this year. He hit .283 with a .324 on-base percentage vs. left-handers and .186/.259 vs. right-handers.

      Who that left-hander hitter may be I don’t know, but think someone less pricey than Fowler.

      Maybe a FA like Scott Posednick if WJ really trusts Mr. Baker to effectively manage a CF platoon (a BIG IF) would be an option. That would put the pieces in place until some of the Reds’ minor league OF talent becomes major league ready.

      • In the same article referenced above, Fay further speculates:

        Maybe a FA like Scott Posednick if WJ really trusts Mr. Baker to effectively manage a CF platoon (a BIG IF) would be an option.That would put the pieces in place until some of the Reds’ minor league OF talent becomes major league ready.

        No, please, not another platoon. I can understand it, but I wouldn’t like to see it.

  7. If Walt is also bringing in (or back, in the case of Ludwick) someone to hit fourth, I would give up Corcino and Heisey for Fowler in the less than the amount of time than it takes a Chapman fastball to reach home. The problem? . . . It should take considerably more than that to land a guy with a 3.5 oWAR last year. Also, I’m not so worried about the park differential. I consider GABP to be a wash with Coors. If Walt is only able to do one thing, he should make sure the four hole is filled. Of course, this means we will just have to hold our breath and hope that there is a LH stick somewhere to platoon with Stubbs and that, ahem, Dusty presses the right buttons.

  8. Homer for Fowler?……..Don’t do it Walt! There is a good chance that Homer will now be what everyone always wanted Homer to be.

    • Homer for Fowler?……..Don’t do it Walt!There is a good chance that Homer will now be what everyone always wanted Homer to be.

      Presume this is in reference to the blurb on MLBTR that Foxsports has folks inferring a Fowler for Bailey matchup might be in the works.

      Some times what you have to do hurts like the big trade last year that landed Latos.

      According to Baseball Reference, counting 2013, Fowler has 3 years of team control left; and, Bailey has two. That might make it a good trade for the Reds if they could then turn around and pick up somebody like Jurgens or Lanan off of the nontender heap to bolster their starting depth.

  9. I still think Bailey has more value at this point than Fowler, as a known quantity both at home (pitching in a hitter (Homer, if you will) friendly ballpark) and away. Also as a potential two starting pitcher. Fowler simply has too many questions connected to him.

  10. My only thing is I feel like the Reds NEED to get rid of Stubbs somehow in a trade. If Stubbs is still in the orginization, he will start more often than not. Dusty will see to that. Only way to fix that is trading him away.

  11. Let’s be clear here. The MLBTR piece does NOT say that a Bailey for Fowler trade is in the works. It says that the Rockies like Homer and that the Reds like Fowler. And it says “Now the question is whether their mutual interest crystallizes into trade discussions during the Winter Meetings.” Meaning there have been no trade discussions yet. Morosi used the exact same phrase in the yardbarker piece linked to above. So not only are trade discussions not happening, but Fay has already tweeted that he doesn’t think the Reds would make that deal. There’s going to be lots of unfounded speculation this week. Keep calm and carry on.

  12. Talk about the splits all you want, but keep in mind Fowler’s road BA is 45 points better than Stubbs’ .217 at GABP (a hitter’s park?) If it means Stubbs sits the bench and Fowler plays center, with Chapman (potentially) replacing Homer in the rotation (or maybe Cingrani or Corcino eventually) I’d love to see it!!! I realize the Chapman to the rotation issue is still uncertain; still, I think about a postseason rotation of Cueto/Latos/Chapman and think the only thing that could cost us would be lousy offense (i.e. Stubbs in center, Cozart batting near the top of the lineup, Frazier on the bench…which cost us our postseason series in 2012)…was severely disappointed to hear that idiot was renewed as manager. He’s managed some good/great teams, and let’s count his postseason success…uh…

    • I hope Bailey is untouchable. He may be as good as any Reds starter right now.

      I don’t disagree with this but when you’ve already got a 1 and 1A. if you can really milk the other guy for return, doing the deal is something to consider. We saw that from the other side last year in the Latos trade. Of course really milking them means getting more then Fowler coming back.

      I’d look for WJ to try to convince the Rocks they’d be better off taking Leake and one of the two between Cingrani and Corcino. However if they insist Homer has to be the center piece them make them pay big time.

  13. I’ve been a big supporter of Homer Bailey for a long time, and he’s the same person he’s always been, the pitcher fans wanted to see traded away for years. I’m surprised that now that he’s had a good season everybody wants him back after previously hoping he’d be traded for far less than Dexter Fowler. If the Reds are serious about converting Chapman I believe that Homer Bailey has been demoted to the 5th starter role.

    Over the past 3 years Fowler has hit .297 with a .398 OBP at Coors Field vs .254/.335 away. I might be concerned with the splits if the discussion involved somewhere where hitters tend to have trouble (like San Diego), but Great American Ballpark is one of the easiest places to be a successful hitter. If the Reds want a speedy guy who can get on base I believe that Fowler is a great fit.

    I hope Dexter Fowler would be willing to play some LF. I think the priority related to Stubbs is to get him out of the top of the lineup, not out of CF or off the roster. If the Reds could follow up such a trade by signing Kevin Youkilis (who only plays ~120 games per season) to play third base Todd Frazier would be needed for 40+ games in the infield, games I don’t want filled by Chris Heisey.

    Weird arguments brought up here. Dexter Fowler has too many questions connected with him? How about Homer Bailey – was 2012 a breakout season or a one time career year? Has one healthy season erased our memory of all the injuries and struggles he’s endured? Maybe Homer Bailey will build on 2012 and continue to improve… or maybe he’ll go back to his average of ~120 innings and a ~4.50 ERA that he put up between 2009 and 2011. Bailey is more of a question mark than Fowler.

    Trading Homer Bailey does NOT mean that the Reds would be in the market for a starting pitcher like Jurrjens or Lannon. It means Chapman would enter the rotation and Mike Leake would keep his spot while Cingrani and Corcino head to AAA.

    Bailey may be as good as any Reds starter right now? Bailey isn’t close to as good as Johnny Cueto. I’d rank Latos and Arroyo ahead of him now also. Chapman and Cingrani might belong ahead of him, depending on how they perform in spring training. I guess Bailey beats out Mike Leake (then again, he wasn’t better than Mike Leake until this season).

    I think trading Daniel Corcino for Dexter Fowler would be reasonable, to solve the Reds’ leadoff problem. Or Mike Leake for Fowler. I’d want more (maybe utility infielders or a lefty reliever) in return for Bailey now that his trade value is as high as it’ll get.

  14. Dexter Fowler and Homer Bailey have two of the coolest names i BBall today. It would be awesome to have them both on the Reds, perhaps Fowler for Leake and a T-Shirt to be named later?

  15. There is no rough equivalency between Great American Ball Park and Coors Field for hitters. According to Baseball Reference, the Batting Park Factor for Coors was 120 last year. For GABP it was 107. That’s an enormous gap. Fowler’s splits have to be taken seriously.

    Again, is he an upgrade over Drew Stubbs – yes, on OBP. No on power, no on stolen bases, no on defense. Is that worth trading a solid #3 starting pitcher? No way. I seriously hope these rumors prove false.

    • There is no rough equivalency between Great American Ball Park and Coors Field for hitters. According to Baseball Reference, the Batting Park Factor for Coors was 120 last year. For GABP it was 107. That’s an enormous gap. Fowler’s splits have to be taken seriously.

      Again, is he an upgrade over Drew Stubbs – yes, on OBP. No on power, no on stolen bases, no on defense. Is that worth trading a solid #3 starting pitcher? No way. I seriously hope these rumors prove false.

      Agreed on the stats between Coors and GABP. But, Fowler has hit well in GABP, both last year and for his career. I’m not worried about that at all. On power, it’s a wash since Stubbs wasn’t hitting, period, and leadoff isn’t asked to hit for power. Stolen bases are essentially a wash, also, since he wouldn’t be asked to steal much hitting in front of Votto. As well as, since Stubbs wasn’t getting on base, he wasn’t stealing much. Defense would be a worry for me. So, the question, IMO, is what we gain in offense worth what we lose in defense. With a smaller outfield than Coors, I would take that chance.

      I’m not so sure I like to send them Bailey, at least not now. I was calling to send Bailey on myself. And, it was rightfully so, since Bailey hadn’t done anything for his first 5 seasons in the league. Last season was definitely better. He still had his hiccups. He did essentially what a 3 man should do. With the situation like that, after 5 seasons in the league where little is done then the player has essentially a breakout year, I would be interested in giving Homer one more year, to see if last season was a fluke or not. If he repeats, then I look to lock him up. If he goes back down, let him go.

      I would rather see the package include Stubbs myself. Baker has shown me enough that Walt has to make the lineup Baker-proof. If Stubbs is here, I’m convinced Baker will look to start Stubbs all he can.

      That all said, since we are looking for what I would call a rental player, just for a year or two, just until Hamilton is ready, anyone we get isn’t going to be the ideal guy (fast, good offense, good defense, affordable, etc.). Those guys are probably going to cost too much if their teams will even let them go in the first place. So, we are going to have to take some kind of flaw. Given that, I could take keeping Stubbs. He just shouldn’t see the light of day above the 7 hole. If the CF sees action above the 7 hole, we need someone else instead of Stubbs.

  16. Bailey is far more valuable than Fowler. Bailey shouldn’t be moved unless we are doing a blockbuster acquisition.

    • I hope nobody who wanted Ryan Hanigan leading off is complaining that Dexter Fowler is a terrible leadoff hitter because he doesn’t hit homeruns or steal bases. When criticizing Fowler’s offense please keep in mind who the other candidates are for the Reds’ leadoff spot.

      Fowler has seriously awful defensive stats. I know they aren’t perfect, but Fangraphs has him -13.9 and Baseball Reference has him as -.8 dWAR. His UZR over his career is among the worst in all of baseball at -39.

      I don’t think Fowler would have to stay in CF with the current opening in LF, would he? Ryan Ludwick’s return is far from certain. Also signing Kevin Youkilis instead of Ludwick would keep LF mostly open.

      Bailey is far more valuable than Fowler.Bailey shouldn’t be moved unless we are doing a blockbuster acquisition.

      In the past year Homer Bailey’s trade value has raised from zero to sky high, hasn’t it? Fowler and Bailey both had one good year, but it’s a fluke in Fowler’s case and a sign that Bailey has improved. They’re even the same age. The outlook is pretty funny. I don’t think Bailey should be moved unless the Reds are making a big acquisition that improves the team, but I think acquiring Dexter Fowler (and bench help or a lefty reliever) would be such a move to improve the team, particularly the leadoff spot.

      I trust Walt Jocketty not to do anything silly and I’ll be okay with a move that he approves to make Fowler the new left fielder.

  17. Fowler has seriously awful defensive stats. I know they aren’t perfect, but Fangraphs has him -13.9 and Baseball Reference has him as -.8 dWAR. His UZR over his career is among the worst in all of baseball at -39.

  18. @Steve Mancuso: I have heard tell of Coors’ Field throwing off OF defensive metrics in the past as well. A quick Google search didn’t yield much in support of that statement, but I believe they have a higher LD% there, as well as the higher HR rate. I am not super sure how the UZR metrics are done, but I’m not sure that they include batted ball mix. I read once how the altitude and pressure affected the way pitches travel. I’m sure that some effect might occur on fly balls to the fielders as well.

  19. Ah, the winter meetings are finally upon us. All of our wistful speculation can be set aside, or at least augmented, by the real decision makers. Hopefully the next week will bring a flurry of FA and trade activity to satiate our hunger for the return of spring baseball.

  20. It’s not ideal, but what about Nate schierholtz? .287/.360/.466 last year against righties. He doesn’t play center, so that’s a hurdle. But I prefer him to XP(even after XP’ late season boom.

  21. …we are talking about Bailey that threw the first Reds no hitter in years, threw over 200 innings, and looked better than any other Reds starter in the playoffs…right?….right? The same guy from the Reds system that they’ve invested this much in already…the same guy that is even showing some signs of growing up and demonstrating actual maturity??…right…right? Not sure why I’m typing so many question marks because if the Reds have anybody that isn’t one…I’d say it was that Bailey guy.

  22. @Steve Mancuso:
    I think you’re underselling Fowler a bit. He’s not really as good as he was last season (.390 BABIP), but he’s still a pretty significant upgrade over Stubbs. I also don’t think his defense is as bad as the metrics say. Every time I’ve seen him, he has looked pretty smooth in the field. Granted, I don’t watch enough Rockies baseball to say definitively one way or the other.

    I still don’t think I’d give up Bailey for him unless something else was headed the Reds’ way, but he’s still an intriguing target depending on the price.

  23. I think a Fowler for Cingrani and Stubbs would be ideal…I mean, most people on here think Cingrani is just going to be a reliever one day so why keep him and his hype. Sell him while he is hot.

    • …we are talking about Bailey that threw the first Reds no hitter in years, threw over 200 innings, and looked better than any other Reds starter in the playoffs…right?….right?The same guy from the Reds system that they’ve invested this much in already…the same guy that is even showing some signs of growing up and demonstrating actual maturity??…right…right?Not sure why I’m typing so many question marks because if the Reds have anybody that isn’t one…I’d say it was that Bailey guy.

      Yep, Homer Bailey threw a no hitter. You know what that, in itself, means? Nothing. Phil Humber pitched a perfect game before allowing him to be claimed off waivers this season. I think that Homer Bailey has quickly gone from being extremely underrated to extremely overrated. His trade value will never be higher than it is now.

      His salary is set to go up in future seasons as we watch Cingrani, Corcino, Robert Stephenson, and Nick Travieso work in the minor league system. If they are willing to trade Bailey now seems like the logical time. I don’t necessarily want Bailey traded away but with six veteran starting pitchers (Cueto, Latos, Chapman, Arroyo, Bailey, and Leake) it makes sense to trade one of the later two to fill their need for a leadoff hitter.

      I think a Fowler for Cingrani and Stubbs would be ideal…I mean, most people on here think Cingrani is just going to be a reliever one day so why keep him and his hype. Sell him while he is hot.

      I think Tony Cingrani has exceeded everybody’s expectations but that doesn’t mean he has a future as a reliever. Check out Bronson Arroyo, if you keep performing you can keep a rotation spot.

  24. @AlphaZero – When I’ve seen Fowler in person, including close up in Spring Training, his athleticism has been breathtaking. I generally only trust the defensive metrics when they are consistent from year to year and with Fowler, they have been. For whatever reason, he’s a cut below Stubbs in that regard. But I agree, he’s looked the part the few times I’ve seen him live.

    @steveschoen – Fowler’s plate appearances in GABP are too few for that to be a reliable indicator of how he’ll perform in Cincinnati in the future. He’s likely to be an upgrade over Stubbs in terms of OBP, but a downgrade for defense, power and stolen bases. That’s not a recipe that would entice me to part with Homer Bailey. Mike Leake? Maybe.

    @Jared – The theory that Coors Field may mess up the defensive metrics is interesting. Carlos Gonzalez has a negative dWAR and UZR as well, although less negative than Fowler. Michael Cuddyer, who played for the Twins for ten seasons, didn’t show worse defensive ratings last season in Coors.

    John Fay just posted that he doesn’t see the Reds being willing to part with Homer Bailey based on the scarcity of front-line starting pitching. He does point out that the decision might be influenced by Homer’s willingness to sign a long-term deal with the Reds.

  25. I’ll just say this — I don’t want to see Bailey traded, period. And for a career .270 CF? Absolutely not, with or without prospects.

    I think we need to come up with a new stat, WONG (wins over next guy). I have to think Bailey has a bigger WONG than Fowler would.

    • Congratulations. I just choked on my drink. However, all “WONGs” aside, I agree with your assessment of the Bailey for Fowler debate.

      I’ll just say this — I don’t want to see Bailey traded, period. And for a career .270 CF? Absolutely not, with or without prospects.

      I think we need to come up with a new stat, WONG (wins over next guy). I have to think Bailey has a bigger WONG than Fowler would.

    • I’ll just say this — I don’t want to see Bailey traded, period. And for a career .270 CF? Absolutely not, with or without prospects.

      I think we need to come up with a new stat, WONG (wins over next guy). I have to think Bailey has a bigger WONG than Fowler would.

      Saying someone has a bigger “WONG”…that’s slightly inappropriate. Haha.

      • Saying someone has a bigger “WONG”…that’s slightly inappropriate. Haha.

        It sounds like the future of scouting and advanced metrics.

    • I’ll just say this — I don’t want to see Bailey traded, period. And for a career .270 CF? Absolutely not, with or without prospects. I think we need to come up with a new stat, WONG (wins over next guy). I have to think Bailey has a bigger WONG than Fowler would.

      Best comment. Ever.

  26. Does adding Fowler take us from where we were at the end of last season and put us into the WS? If not, then what is the point. We are at a stage where the move(s) we make need to put us in the WS, getting Mike Staton does that…

    • Does adding Fowler take us from where we were at the end of last season and put us into the WS?If not, then what is the point.We are at a stage where the move(s) we make need to put us in the WS, getting Mike Staton does that…

      I think the commissioner won’t allow Stanton to be traded unless it’s for a top tier talent. The Reds would ideally trade him for a boat load of prospect. That would kill the Marlins market (or whatever is left of it).

  27. Rather than Wins Above Replacements or Wins Over Next Guy how about ‘What the Team Needs’? They need a leadoff hitter, not a 6th starting pitcher for a five man rotation or a power hitter like Giancarlo Stanton.

    Does adding Fowler put the Reds in the World Series? Not necessary, but he eliminates all question about the top of the lineup – he’d be the leadoff hitter, no question about it. No more experimenting with Brandon Phillips, Zack Cozart, or Drew Stubbs in that role as long as he stays healthy. Add Fowler and leadoff ceases to be an issue for two years – cross that off a list, move on and focus on the bench.

  28. @redsfanman: Bailey isn’t a #6 starter. He’s a #3 guy slated to start in the #4 spot.

    People get stuck on how good a guy “needs to be” to pitch at different spots in the rotation. The reality is, the better each spot in the rotation is, the more games the team wins. Trade away a starter and it’s not only his spot that gets worse, but spot below that. I say keep them all unless a ridiculously good offer comes up. And ridiculously good offers don’t come up.

    • @redsfanman: Bailey isn’t a #6 starter. He’s a #3 guy slated to start in the #4 spot.

      People get stuck on how good a guy “needs to be” to pitch at different spots in the rotation. The reality is, the better each spot in the rotation is, the more games the team wins. Trade away a starter and it’s not only his spot that gets worse, but spot below that. I say keep them all unless a ridiculously good offer comes up. And ridiculously good offers don’t come up.

      Bailey isn’t a #6 starter but he is one of the Reds’ 6 MLB ready starting pitchers, not including Tony Cingrani. How much the rotation would suffer by giving a spot to Mike Leake instead of Homer Bailey is debatable. I think Homer Bailey is far more injury prone and likely to miss time. They were comparable in 2011 but Bailey took a big step forward in 2012 – Bailey is a year older, maybe he’s a year ahead in his development.

      What about Homer Bailey for Alex Gordon? A gold glove winning left handed leadoff hitting left fielder? He’s more of a sure thing than Dexter Fowler while also having below average homerun power and rarely stealing bases. Like Fowler Gordon he is a leadoff hitter, no question about it, and a solution to a problem with the Reds’ lineup.

      Homer Bailey for Alex Gordon seems reasonable to me, especially if the Royals cover some of Gordon’s contract or add quality utility players.

    • @redsfanman: Now, I would trade Bailey for Gordon in a minute.However, Gordon’s contract is too rich for the Reds.

      I believe that Alex Gordon makes ~$9m in 2013 and ~$12m in 2014. Removing Homer Bailey’s contract (Bailey gets what, ~$5m in 2013?) from the payroll (in favor of less expensive Mike Leake) through that trade does off-set a bit of that while eliminating the need for Ryan Ludwick in LF. I think they could work it out without Gordon being a big burdon on the payroll.

      • I believe that Alex Gordon makes ~$9m in 2013 and ~$12m in 2014.Removing Homer Bailey’s contract (Bailey gets what, ~$5m in 2013?) from the payroll (in favor of less expensive Mike Leake) through that trade does off-set a bit of that while eliminating the need for Ryan Ludwick in LF.I think they could work it out without Gordon being a big burdon on the payroll.

        To elaborate, Ryan Ludwick is asking for over $7m/year (and the Reds offered him $5m for his 2013 option) just to play LF while not addressing any roster issues? Trade Homer Bailey for Alex Gordon and the Reds will add about $4m to the 2013 payroll while settling the outfield (Gordon in LF, Stubbs in CF, Bruce in RF) and assuring Chapman of one of five (and only five) spots in the starting rotation while completely eliminating the need for Ryan Ludwick. After that the only remaining priority is the bench.

        • To elaborate, Ryan Ludwick is asking for over $7m/year (and the Reds offered him $5m for his 2013 option) just to play LF while not addressing any roster issues? Trade Homer Bailey for Alex Gordon and the Reds will add about $4m to the 2013 payroll while settling the outfield (Gordon in LF, Stubbs in CF, Bruce in RF) and assuring Chapman of one of five (and only five) spots in the starting rotation while completely eliminating the need for Ryan Ludwick. After that the only remaining priority is the bench.

          Gordan is due: 13:$9M, 14:$10M, 15:$12.5M, 16:$12.5M player option
          MLB Trade Rumors projects that Bailey will get $5.1M in arbitration.

          Actually Ludwick fills the Dusty-proofing RH power hitter to bat 4th between Votto and Bruce which is still not addressed with the proposed swap. It’d be nice if Frazier did, but not sure he’s there yet.

          We’d also have a pretty pathetic 7-9 with Cozart, Stubbs, and Pitcher. It would be nice to offensively upgrade on of CF or SS. Heisey could help ease that pain, but that won’t happen.

          We’ll also need to then find a 6th starter to finish out the year for Chapman. Hopefully, Chapman can last until Cingrani or Cueto show enough to step up from AAA to finish out the year for him.

          We’ll also need another LH relief pitcher.

          We still need a backup SS, since nobody cares for Burriss. :)

          We still need a LH bat with some pop for the bench.

          I’d say there would be plenty of roster issues left for Walt to work on still.

        • Gordan is due: 13:$9M, 14:$10M, 15:$12.5M, 16:$12.5M player option
          MLB Trade Rumors projects that Bailey will get $5.1M in arbitration.

          Actually Ludwick fills the Dusty-proofing RH power hitter to bat 4th between Votto and Bruce which is still not addressed with the proposed swap.It’d be nice if Frazier did, but not sure he’s there yet.

          We’d also have a pretty pathetic 7-9 with Cozart, Stubbs, and Pitcher.It would be nice to offensively upgrade on of CF or SS.Heisey could help ease that pain, but that won’t happen.

          We’ll also need to then find a 6th starter to finish out the year for Chapman.Hopefully, Chapman can last until Cingrani or Cueto show enough to step up from AAA to finish out the year for him.

          We’ll also need another LH relief pitcher.

          We still need a backup SS, since nobody cares for Burriss.

          We still need a LH bat with some pop for the bench.

          I’d say there would be plenty of roster issues left for Walt to work on still.

          You think the catchers won’t hit in the #8 spot? :lol: One of Cozart or Stubbs/Heisey will be hitting #1 or #2, unless Dusty has learned the errors of his ways. Doubtful.

    • Gordon > Bailey.Prospects would have to go with him.Plus there is the whole money thing on top.

      To some extent the price of Gordon’s salary would be off-set by moving Homer Bailey’s contract – the difference in salary is less than what Ryan Ludwick seems to want to get paid in LF (let alone what the free agent centerfielders want long term).

  29. Also in breaking news, the Nationals signed long time Red Bill Bray to a minor league deal and the Giants signed Angel Pagan to a 4 year, $40m contract. I am thrilled that Pagan is off the market – I think he is extremely overrated.

  30. I would’ve kept Bray. His injury was not arm related. When healthy, he is more effective than Ondrusek or Arredondo. Solid lefties are scarce, and we let one walk away for nothing.

    With the Pagan $igning, it shows that Victorino will not be coming to Cincinnati. The only viable options at this point are trade or bounce-back type players (Sizemore)…..or both.

    • @Sultan of Swaff: What an overpay for Pagan IMO.

      I agree. Pagan isn’t much better at getting on base than Stubbs for his career, but he gets $10m/year? Yikes.

      Mariners are looking at Ludwick

      https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/275704856239550464

      I really hope Ryan Ludwick gets signed elsewhere to take him out of the equation.

      @cincyreds14: Most things I read about Fowler, about splits at and away from Coors Field are not very reassuring, or about his defense in CF. I’ve heard for a long time that the Rockies had an absurdly high asking price for Fowler and I doubt he’s suddenly become easy to acquire. The reasons you want them to keep Bailey are the same reasons as why the Rockies might want him.

    • Mariners are looking at Ludwick

      https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/275704856239550464

      I realize that “looking at” doesn’t mean a whole lot, but after Ludwick’s disastrous time in San Diego and Pittsburgh, I can’t imagine he’d want to go to a bigger ballpark, and into a division with some big-time pitching. True, he’ll still have the Astros to kick around, though.

  31. Reds fan here residing in Denver and having seen Dexter Fowler play last year, he would be a BIG TIME improvement over Drew Stubbs. Dexter is 26 and GETTING BETTER – Stubbs has flat lined or regressed. He does not get baseball – that is evident. As a life long Pete Rose fan, I have always looked at a player’s BB IQ – Pete had it BIG TIME – Stubbs is low and seems lost half the time – all raw talent and w/o BB IQ he will only continue to regress. Dexter has it and would turn the Reds on their ear. Dex has stopped running (12 SB in 2011 and 12 in 2012). Get him running. btw, Frazier’s BB IQ is also high (learned last year how to get chop hits). Definitely a keeper!

  32. @redsfanman: Dexter Fowler could be just as or even more valuable – younger and cheaper – Reds GO GET DEX (would hit .300 with 20+ HRs and steal 30 bags at GAB)! The Rockies need pitching desperately and would jump at either Corcino, Cingrani and Stubbs BUT DO NOT OFFER BAILEY – as he is just now coming into his own (pitched lights out in Sept and Oct – waited long enough for him – KEEP HOMER).

  33. And do not forget about Denis Phipps – he was hurt last year after tearing up AAA in 2011. The kid has all kind of talent. We should take a long hard look at him as he could be very valuable to the Reds.

  34. The more I think about it, the more standing pat sounds fine. Boring I know… I wonder what’s available in Rule 5? I’m wondering whether the Reds are going to try to get something done with Rolen? Can Stubbs get any worse at the plate? I’m not sure he can.

  35. I don’t want Ludwick back. There. I’ve said it. He’ll be too expensive, and too big of a risk. I hope the best for him, but I don’t think he’ll be as good in the next two years as he was this one.

  36. @seat101:

    Walt kind of speaking out of both sides of his mouth on this quote. . .Stating that they have not spoken with either COL or OAK, but then saying that Bailey’s name hasn’t been brought up – Well Walt, if you haven’t spoken with them then obviously Bailey’s name could not have been brought up. . . Huh? Kind of makes me believe that there have been discussions of some sort.

  37. Sounds like we need to know what the definition of is is……
    Whom would we be talking to them about?

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