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Ran across this today on Ryan Ludwick and his $5M option:
Reds outfielder Ryan Ludwick will turn down his $5 million mutual option for 2013, but sources say the Reds will talk about a new deal to keep him in Cincinnati after his big season in 2012.
Both sides are very interested in him staying after his terrific season. The Reds understand Ludwick will turn down the option; off the year he had, he would be interested in a multiyear deal.
So, what would you offer Ludwick?
I have no numbers to offer but I know he’s important to their success and should receive compensation accordingly. He will be a veteran presence/leader especially if Rolen retires. My husband and I have been supporters of Luddy for several years and were so happy to see him as a Red cause we can see almost all their games. I don’t think he will try to hold them up financially but just wants to get a fair offer/deal.
What do you all think?
Well lets look at a couple of things before we throw a big contract at him. His OPS + this year was 128. The three years prior, 105,104, and 90. At age 34, turning 35 mid-season next year I believe he will regress to those 09-11 numbers. Let us also remember he was pretty bad at the plate the first six weeks this past season. Maybe I am off base but I say don’t let the door hit ya…
I don’t offer him anything now that he has declined his option, he basically had a phenomenal six week stretch in an otherwise pretty terrible season and was more or less useless after the middle of August.
@Jason1972:
He did have a pretty good NLDS. 3 homers, etc.
i was just about to say that, he showed great defense and great at bats during the NLDS. Also ive read he formed some really strong bonds with some players on this team. He calls everyone “brother”. You gotta hope we dont break the bank but BC has shown money aint no thang
It all depends on what kind of deal he’s looking for. The Reds can’t wrap up too many years in a 34-year old. Granted, he looked great both offensively and defensively and didn’t show any signs of age being a factor in the second half of the year. If they can work out something at two years, that would be the best option in my opinion.
That said, I really do hope they get him signed and brought back. As HeyLady said, he’s a quality leader but, more importantly, he has the kind of power the Reds need in the middle of the lineup and he plays very good defense in left field. He also seems to be one of the few guys on the team who shows (controlled) fire and passion for the game, a quality seriously lacking with this team that is as detrimental as anything to their success.
I would send him away…see ya. This past year is going to be the best he has for the rest of his career. Not paying extra for many years of worse results.
People were saying he was done when the Reds signed him…give him 3 years and let’s go…
Does it not matter that he’s second on the team in home runs and RBIs? And that this team wouldn’t even had made the post-season without him? He was also one of the few who really showed up for the post-season! And keep in mind that his numbers are based on a season that was not a full one cause of the reduced playing time while he was being bounced back and forth with Heisey. Imagine if he had been able to settle in and had some consistent playing time. Some of you are really selling him short, I think.
I would wait. If he really likes the “atmosphere,” he will give Walt a chance to match an offer. Walt shouldn’t ask for this chance, but if Ludwick want to be in a Reds uniform, he will likely maintain contact. Who knows what the market will be like. He may not receive much to his liking and may end up signing late. This would favor the Reds (in my opinion).
I would also wait for another reason. Jocketty seems pretty adept at letting the other GMs pay top dollar for top level free agents. He may be able to get a steal like Josh Hamilton for one year if he waits.
However, I’m thinking that he waits primarily because there are some trade possibilities he would like to explore. This team’s future is the next five years or so. Center field is obviously a priority. However, the Broxton trade tells us that he is always looking, and not necessarily in the most obvious areas.
I wasn’t selling him short. But as a small market club the Reds have to spend wisely. Do they really want to give more than $5mil+ to a player who is going to be 35 and just came off three prior average seasons. I agree that he gave us a great season, very thankful for that. But I just believe it was an anomaly. I may be wrong. As for clubhouse chemistry, isn’t that why we just gave Dusty two more years?
I don’t like anything higher than $12m total. I don’t care if it’s 2 or 3 years. He did end up with a great stretch this year but it’s hard to expect that to continue when you look at the last 4 seasons and his age.
I’d love to see Ludwick come back but I don’t think that kind of money even comes close to keeping him.
2 year for 10 million and incentives that would make it worth up to 14 million would be worth it in my opinion. If he plays like he did this year, then 7 a year is still under the going rate for his production.
Yep, that’s about what I would do. 3 years max, about 5 million a year. Hope for 2 years, 10 million with incentives/bonuses.
Teams like incentives, player do not. Personally, I think all player contracts should have positive incentives (money for reaching certain goals) and negative incentives (like half if you rip your elbow during Spring Training).
Really appreciate his second half and playoff run, but @ 34 nothing more than 2 years @ $5-6M per, maybe add some incentives. If he walks, take his salary and Rolen’s expiring salary and go get Michael Bourn to play CF and ultimately LF when Hamilton is ready in 2 years, and put Heisey in left. Extra OFs should be aplenty.
I imagine the Reds will do with him as they did with Francisco last year. They’ll give him a reasonable number and and tell him it’s waiting for him if he doesn’t find anything better. Jocketty has done well with making popular guys who may be overpriced feel welcome to come back even after they’ve explored their options.
Ludwick would be crazy not to explore FA after this year. At 34 this is his last chance at a big 3 to 4 multi-year contract. As I said yesterday, Ludwick is the perfect storm. You hate to loose him, but because of baseball economics, he is a bad risk at market price. I’m okay with the next team paying him for the production he gave the Reds but I hope they are able to sign him to something like a 2 year, $12M ($5.5M, $6.5M) deal with a 2 year mutual option at $6M and $4M with acceptable buyout. I’d also have some of that money contingent upon number of games played and/or on active roster.
He came through in the clutch several times. They should offer him 7 to 10 mills. Our team needs hitters, and Lud is definitely part of the equation.
2 years/14 million. Nothing over that.
2 and 12 with a club option for a 3rd year.
The first thing I’d do is take a wait and see approach. I’m not saying he needs us more than we need him, but when you have starting pitching to trade, you don’t have to throw money at your problems to solve them. Sure, the market for Ludwick will be there, but the concerns mentioned by the other posters will temper the enthusiasm for him. While we’re waiting for the market to shake out, we need to be sending out feelers to teams who are looking for pitching. To that end, I’d float Leake and/or Corcino. Possible teams include:
Twins–Willingham,
Marlins–Ruggiano.
Padres–Quentin.
D-backs. Parra.
Rays–Joyce.
Royals–Cain.
The beauty of the Reds situation is that it’s entirely fluid–Frazier could play 3b or LF, CF is taken but could use an upgrade (Hamilton slides to LF). Creativity is the key here, especially on a budget.
I like Willingham and Parra. Mostly Parra. Since you mention the Marlins I would check on Bonifacio’s availability. Versatile (CF,LF,3B,2B) with speed. I think he is about 27 years old and Ruggiano I think is in his early 30′s. Marlins are probably going to be in deal mode this winter. Logan Morrison (LH OF)could be a possibility. LoMo is one of those huge potential guys, but hasn’t done it in the majors yet. And if the Reds re-sign Broxton, with all of those RH relievers, you know a big trade will happen with a couple of them either this winter or towards the end of spring training when things are shaking out.
Thought of the day–
Who wants to bet on the Reds caravan they announce that Votto had a second procedure on his knee during the offseason?
I was thinking it would probably be at Reds Fest, and it would actually be the third procedure. In fact, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he’s not already had it done. The way the organization handled that situation is still shocking to me.
They said that already that in the off-season he would have more work done on the knee
I’m with those who say resigning him is not a must. I don’t even like a two year deal that much. Good year, a better pick up than I would have guessed in the beginning… but let’s see what other players are out there. I don’t like the idea of the diminishing returns on this one. It’ll be interesting to see how the Reds read the tea leaves on this one.
Many people seemed to think that Ludwick would jump at the chance to come back for 5 million. I never understood why, considering that his season is valued by FanGraphs at 12.7M.
He isn’t worth that much (12.7M) to the Reds, but I would not be surprised to see a team sign him for 2 years, 20 million. He had an equivalent offensive season to Beltran, who’s older by a year and got 2 years, 25M before this year. I’m taking off 5 million from Beltran because Beltran’s been a better player over his career (obviously).
If it’s 10 million or less, pay the man.
2 years, 10 MIl, front loaded.
@Jason1972: he had an OPS of 908 in June, 1089 in July, 986 in August, and 821 in June. Even in April and May he had 10 XBH in approx 105 at-bats, which isn’t terrible. so his season didn’t really boil down to a hot 1 1/2 months.
If Rolen and Cairo are not with the team next year, well, you know how Dusty likes some veteran-ness to the team. Is veteran-ness a word? So, having Ludwick back might be something Jocketty and Baker really want. Offer him a 2 yr./$15MM deal, with no third yr. option. Nothing more than that. And if he declines, so be it, wish him well and move on. Can Ludwick be a club house leader??
Yeah… that’s the upper reaches of reasonable, at least to me.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: I see your logic, but I really hope they don’t go that high, unless Bob is really just feeling frisky. It’s just wrong he’d be making more than Jay Bruce (I know that’s just how it works). But now is not the time to pay for past performance like we did with BP.
I don’t think they will go that high, but I think *someone* will go that high.
St. Louis??
@Sultan of Swaff: Heck of an idea to get Willingham. I’m sure the Twins won’t let him go though.
They shouldnt overpay him but they should go after swisher if they cant keep Ludwick
@ckerie: I thought you said not to overpay?
I heard Bronson Arroyo on ESPN radio with Scott Van Pelt this afternoon. Arroyo gave some praise to Hunter Pence about how he was able to get the SF Giants dugout all fired up and hyped up in games 3-4-5 of the NLDS. Maybe he could be a good fit in LF if Ludwick moves on. He’s a free agent and might be too expensive. But if he wants to play for a contender, he might sign for a little less. He doesn’t have the power of Ludwick, but he usually hits for a much higher average.
I believe I would defer to whatever the Reds front office chooses to do. It’s really amazing how they have turned around their image in terms of acquiring talent, young and veteran, and forking out the dough to keep them. They get an A-plus in my book, and I humbly do not offer any advice.
Other than they may want to move the fences back. With the stud young pitching, why make homers fairly regular for everybody.
I like Ludwick, but the good news and the bad news is that this season was his second best year of his career. In his best year (2008), he was in his prime and he had Pujols hitting in front of him. I think he can only regress from here, especially with his injuries. Honestly, I could see extending his contract for another year (through 2014), but not above $5 million AAV. If he rejects it, I wouldn’t feel bad about letting him explore other options.
He has Votto hitting in front of him now. I know he’s never played for the Cardinals or anything but most people seem to think he might turn into a decent player.
I was reading down the thread and thinking the same. Plus Bruce (30+hr eight behind him)
In today’s free agent market, teams only get about 1 WAR for $5mil.
Ludwick just put up a 2.8 WAR season, and in his last three years before that he put up .3, 1.9, and 2.4.
I think it’s pretty fair to say that Ludwick can be a 1.5WAR player for the next 2 years, so I’d be ok with giving him $15 mil for those.
The bigger issue I have isn’t what the fair market would be for him, it’s how the Reds are going to get better.
Consider who’s staying: 1B, 2B, SS, RF, C, with Frazier in at 3B and presumably Stubbs at CF. Now, maybe the Reds make some big deals and ship guys out. But probably not.
I see LF as one place that they might actually be able to get better. If they can get another 4WAR bat for LF they will have really upgraded the offense. Otherwise, we’re going to have the same offense we did this year, which was good but not great.
I haven’t read any others, just logging in. So, sorry if someone else said this. I believe it depends on a couple of things. Or, even all of them related. I am talking Ludwick, Rolen, and Frazier. If Rolen retires, Frazier is 3rd baseman and offer Ludwick 2 years and $10 million total with incentives. If we decide to keep Rolen, then keep Ludwick at what the option is right now. If he doesn’t accept it, let him go. I don’t see us keeping Ludwick and Rolen, unless Rolen comes back at a greatly reduced discount (even possible with the CBA) and greatly reduced role, for I do believe Frazier deserves to be in the regular lineup next year.
Or, I don’t offer Ludwick any more than there is right now if I am going to commit to Rolen being back as a regular. We have Frazier for LF, his favorite position. As good as he showed to be, he deserves more than a bench position.
Oddly, I recall Ludwick hitting AHEAD of Pujols in the 2 slot. Holliday hit #4. And that would be why he got so many pitches to hit. But it has been a long time. And I am getting older.
As far as defense in the playoffs, he made 2 great catches many others may have made standing up. He did make the plays, though, so credit for that, but he just isn’t more than an adequate defensive player.
Wait til Feb 1, if there’s still a need, and he’s available, then one year. Absolute max.
Hmm. The Reds have a LFer in Frazier. Seems to me 3rd base is what you need and there are plenty more options at 3rd base both within and without than there are options for left field. I hear Miguel Cairo is going to be a free agent this winter. Maybe the Reds could pick him up.
List of 3rd Base Free Agents: (* has an option)
Geoff Blum, ARI
Miguel Cairo, CIN
Eric Chavez, NYY
Mark DeRosa, WAS
Brandon Inge, OAK *
Kevin Kouzmanoff, KC
Placido Polanco, PHI
Mark Reynolds, BAL *
Scott Rolen, CIN
David Wright, NYM *
Kevin Youkilis, CWS *
David Wright is the only one on this list I would pursue. He is priced way too high though. Mets will probably never part with him either. Maybe Youk. But Youk should not hit 4th in a Reds lineup. I think that is the pressing need is finding a legit #4 hitter to play 3B or LF. Then have Frazier in the other spot. Only Wright fits that bill and he is more or less unavailable. A trade is more likely than a free agent signing.
@lthedaug: The Cardinals didn’t have Holliday until 2009, and during most of Ludwick’s big 2008 season he was hitting fourth.
Regardless, as others have pointed out, it is true that he hits between Votto and Bruce, so he should still see plenty of pitches to hit next season.
@al: I agree that we can probably expect Ludwick to play at about a 1.5 WAR level for next season, and possibly the season after that. So I don’t think that $5-7 million next year would be terrible, but I’d still like to see who else is available before making that decision.
@WVRedlegs: I would consider taking a chance with Eric Chavez. He has good power, although his glove is considerably worse than Rolen’s (but that’s true for most 3B). I think he has some good upside, since he started to turn things around with the Yankees this year after some mediocre seasons. He could probably be gotten pretty cheaply too.
I don’t give him a multi-year deal. The Reds gave him way more than anyone else would last winter and $5 mil is more than he is worth in the open market. Sure he had a great 6 week stretch, but he was awful at the beginning and not great at the end of the season. I like him on the one year $5 mil, but I don’t like a multi-year deal at all if it is more than 2 years $8 mil ($5 this yr, $3 next). Anything more than that is an overpayment given his age and skill set.