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Let’s recap today’s titanic (in both senses) struggle…
FINAL
San Francisco Giants 6
Cincinnati Reds 4
WP: Cain
LP: Latos
S: Romo
Just got back from Great American Ball Park. Chad said I could do the recap if I wanted to. And I do.
Obviously we’re all disappointed at the outcome of today’s game and the NLDS. There will be plenty of time and space here to review the championship season, the soul-crushing series, the personnel and begin the discussion of 2013. But I’m going to stay focused on today’s game.
Let me start by saying that the crowd and atmosphere were truly befitting a place named “Great.” In fact, I’ve never experienced a baseball crowd remotely similar. On Tuesday night, the atmosphere was thrilling, the game on the line for hours and the Reds were never really behind until the very end. Homer flirted with another no-hitter and flat out dominated. The optimism – signified by the many brooms – was palpable.
But today was altogether different – and better. Before the fifth inning stomach punch, the crowd was the same as Tuesday night, full of excitement and pure anticipation. It rose and fell with every Reds at bat. It stood for every two-strike Mat Latos pitch. Then BusterMVP happened.
Afterward, dead silence. Understandably. Yet something really uncharacteristic for a Queen City baseball crowd started.
We rallied, along with our team.
Cincinnati baseball fans are usually solely reactive. Today was the first time I’ve ever witnessed a GABP crowd attempt to will the team back into the game. By the ninth inning, the noise reached the point where you could no longer hear. Watching Jay Bruce’s twelve-pitch AB (the adjective ‘dramatic’ doesn’t begin to describe it) was like being in Rupp Arena or Michigan Stadium for a big moment. Literally deafening.
The two key plays to me, besides, well the (word withheld due to site guidelines) grand slam, were Brandon Crawford’s triple in the fifth inning and the strike out-throw out play in the bottom of the sixth. Crawford isn’t much of a hitter, but after Mat Latos missed – barely, really maybe not – with his first two fastballs to Crawford, he grooved one that the Giants shortstop pulled down the right field line. Blanco scored and Crawford eventually scored. Crawford’s triple set the rest of the disastrous top of the fifth into motion.
The Hanigan-Bruce double play never should have been. The called third strike on the Reds catcher was a ball, inside. The right call, on Matt Cain’s final pitch of the game, would have loaded the bases with no outs. Should Dusty Baker have sent Jay Bruce and Scott Rolen on that pitch, as he had done on the previous pitch that Hanigan fouled off? It was risky, but there was sense in the play. Sending the runners avoids a double play, at least a conventional one. Hanigan has a fairly low strike out rate. (The Giants weren’t holding Jay Bruce on second base, so I kind of wonder why he was out by a country mile.)
But again, the (word withheld, see above) pitch was a ball. Sigh.
I was sad when it was over. But I have to admit I was exhilarated by the game. The Reds, to a man, didn’t quit. In the five at bats after Posey’s grand slam, these things happened. (Note how many different players this covers.) Ryan Hanigan was HBP. Drew Stubbs singled and scored his fourth run of the series. Brandon Phillips doubled and drove in two runs. Ryan Ludwick homered. Jay Bruce walked. Scott Rolen singled. Brandon Phillips singled. Joey Votto singled. Scott Rolen singled (again). Super Todd Frazier singled with one hand on the bat. Zack Cozart walked. Joey Votto singled (again). Ryan Ludwick singled.
It’s tempting to focus on all the missed opportunities. But it’s more appropriate to recognize the virtue of how many opportunities there were.
In those last few innings, Brandon Phillips committed Gold Glove defense. Drew Stubbs saved a run in center field. The bullpen stood firm, because that’s what they do. LeCure. Marshall for two utterly dominant innings. Broxton. The Missile.
A six-run comeback is a heavy lift. The Reds fell two short. But I was really proud to be a fan of their team.
As I shuffled out the gate after the game, I overheard someone say. Well, it was a great year. And I agree with that. And you know what, it was also a really great game.
In a playoff everything you do is multiplied by 100 or what you don’t do. The Reds didn’t do the little things or react or act before problems occured. I think you have to have a different plan of managing and playing in the post season and I just didn’t see that out of the managing staff or players. Today we should have thrown the kitchen sink pitching wise at the Giants and we didn’t, Dusty directed it like he directed any of the 162 games during the regular season. Good Managers read their players and know when they need to act, Dusty reacted and it was to late. Also Dusty plays it like there is always another game and that has now bitten him in 3 different playoff series with three different teams.
Dusty is a players manager and the owner loves him, but this team has the talent to dominate and they don’t. We need a different approach with some new thinking. Dusty has taken these guys as far as he can, same thing happened in SF and Chicago, I just hope Bob and Walt see this….problem is I don’t think Bob does…
I too am distraught at the thought of the season being over. Yet just think of the years to come, this is a young team that is locked up for years to come. The youngsters are more experienced and the front office will try to improve the team further. Just think how sweet it will be when we do win the WORLD SERIES!
Well said.
I said this under the “love” story.
The players love each other and spirit of team is very high. Do not underestimate Dusty’s people skills and how that has made this a great team.
We have great chemistry and that could be lost with a new manager.
Again – I am new to this web site and just want to tanks everyone who posts. This is a great read by fans who love a great franchise and tradition.
I’m disappointed with the outcome (understatement), but that was a really, really great game.
I might have put the Jay Bruce’s 11 or 12 pitch AB in the 9th on the list of positive things that happened. From down 0-2 (or was it 1-2) when did Bruce ever extend an AB like that before?
He missed (fouled off) the one mistake pitch which might have sent Reds fans home happy had he connected but he still hung in. And I liked that he was still looking to drive the ball not trying to just serve it for a single and leave the rest of the lifting to someone else. With 1 out that was the attitude to take in my opinion.
And I would say that from the TV shots of the Giants bench, from the 5th pitch or so on, I think a number of them were thinking he had a real shot of giving one the ultimate ride. That’s respect, even it it doesn’t make the long winter ahead seem shorter right now.
It is what it is, a loss.
Only, “Redsfanman” has to imply that if you are unhappy with Baker’s “performance” in the postseason, you must be a racist and want a “white guy” like Bobby Valentine to be the new manager. Sorry, but I read that in a different thread, but wanted to make sure I posted this in the game recap.
Latos might have fallen apart to some degree, but the strike zone didn’t help. Tom Hallion sucks. Plain and simple. He calls it fair, and either Blanco doesn’t strike out but neither does Hanigan, or both strike out, and the Giants don’t have any 6 run rally.
I was still at work when this all happened and in our environment, an occasional internet score check is all that is available (neither cellular nor AM nor FM penetrate to my desk). I’ve been wondering if Hanigan or Price or Baker or anyone did anything to try and slow Latos down and get him refocused. At the least he has to realize walking Posey and allowing one more run was the better alternative, even if Pence or Belt eventually cleared the bases)
Price came out to the mound to talk to Latos just before the blowup hit by Posey.
Already hearing per John Fay’s twitter that Jocketty plans on meeting with Baker and the coaches tomorrow, and all are expected to come back.
Talk about the ultimate insult to Reds fans. Brilliant move Walt. Just can’t get enough of making the playoffs and never winning a series. All the while setting humiliating records through the process.
I bought a last minute ticket… and found myself at my first ever playoff game. I don’t have anything to compare it to. The excitement and the fans cheering on the team was insane. (I have almost completely lost my voice from screaming and cheering). But despite the disappointment and sadness I currently feel, I have to agree with all of Steve’s comments.
They team really made a valiant effort..
I know a lot of people are playing the blame game too. And I have to give credit to the Giants — their defense was good. That insane catch off Navarro’s hit in the 8th was devestating to me. I thought for certain we were on our way to winning until he scooped it. But I do think the Reds have a bright future ahead of them. And I was so happy to be cheering them on in the stands. And will continue to do so for many years.
I have a broken heart but fond memories of a great season.
Please, people. Does ANYBODY really expect that Dusty (in a season without Madsen, without Masset, without Votto, for over a month and a half, an ailing Scott Rolen, a healthy Miguel Cario, recovering from a hospitalization for an irregular heartbeat, then mini stroke, followed by the loss of Cueto) is going to be shown the door? Get a grip. If Dusty is gone, next season, it will be by his own choosing (and he may well). 2012 = The Year We Fell Short Because of Injuries. That’s what the front office has already chalked this up to, so should everyone else. Go Get ‘Em Next Year. See Ya All in the Nation in about 5 months. GO NATS!! GO GIANTS! (in that order).
No way the Reds are not going to try to rehire a manager of a team that won 97 games with a considerable number of injuries. Dusty may decide for health reasons not to manage, but I doubt it. There’s a chance they may not agree on money. Baker may ask for three years and the Reds only want to go for two. That’s sort of what happened when Baker left SF for Chicago.
I’m just stunned that anyone actually thinks Baker won’t be back.
Okay, I’m upset with many things, but I’m going to just say one hugely positive thing I’m noticing. My God, I can see Bruce and Bailey maturing right in front of me with every at bat, every inning pitched. I’ll admit, I’ve only been following baseball for a year, but it has to look so promising that these two are finally getting their stuff together. And let’s not forget Fraizer, who, barring a completely insane re-sign of a certain player I still have respect for but don’t want to see on our team after this year, is showing veteran skills as a rookie. Same for Cozart. It’ll be a long few months, but I am so excited for my second season as a Reds fan. And my third. And my fourth. And my fifth…well you get it. This team is coming together for what it seems to be the long run, and I’m so excited!
@GoRedlegs: Welcome to being a Reds fan. You being a new Reds fan look at this club wide open. Us veteran Reds fans (45yrs for me) tend to look at the bad first thinking we know how to improve what is needed. I do like change and I do like watching the younger players.
My one and only comment is not about the game or the season; it’s about the fans that post on these game threads.
We all have disagreements, occasionally some philosophical differences, have some differing opinions on certain players; but through it all we are on the same side and I enjoy each and every game on here(win or lose).
See everybody for the Game 1 thread vs the Angels in 2013.
Van Wilhoite.
Cool message. Did you win money on Matt Cain? (I had to ask.)
Yep; used the money I won on Carpenter yesterday on it; Giants were +125 which means if you take a game at +125 and win you get 125% of what you bet back.
We really lose out if we lose Speier or Price to keep Dusty.
I really want to be there opening day.
@RichmondRed: Dusty isn’t gone, though. I’ve heard that Walt isn’t even thinking about that. Dusty would have to ask for something unreasonable to not be welcomed back.
That puts so much more of a positive outlook on the game. As I read it, it didn’t make me as upset that we lost, but more upset that I don’t get to watch this team anymore this season. In a tumultuous summer for me as a sports fan (Arkansas football) and somewhat personally, the Reds gave me something to look forward to each day. I was without a job for almost 2 months (I have a great one now) and not having any luck, but this Reds team gave me something positive. This team was so much fun to watch and follow each day, and I really am going to miss watching them play. I can’t wait for the future of this ball club
This coming off season is a good time for change.
1. Walt and Bob needs to have the fatherly talk with Dusty and tell him to go live life. Enjoy your son, work on your hobbies, enjoy the home life. You did a fine job, thank you.
2. With Dusty no longer manager Jacoby needs to be replaced. Change can be very good. Eric Davis would jump at the chance.
Mark Berry can go also. Don’t know everything about his coaching skills but I’ve seen enough of sending guys to home being out by a mile, not signaling to baserunners soon enough and the old verbal coaching method when two baserunners are in hearing distance.
3. If Tim Spier isn’t the new manager then help him find a mangerial position somewhere. Who to manage this team? I don’t know but there are a lot of good baseball minds.
4. Walt has the fatherly talke with Rolen. Thank him and ask him if he wants to be hitting coach someday. Keep him as a member of the Reds family.
5. Where is Paul O’Neil? Does he come to any functions?
6. What to do with Devin Mesoraco? You kept him on the roster as a player until his blowup with the ump or the concussion and then sent him to the minors. Basically never to play again for the Reds once he was called back up. How can you judge a guy to be ready for the majors and have him fall flat on his face. Then you killed his confidence. You couldn’t send him down at the allstar break and tell him you need some at bats and work on this and that?
7. What to do with Drew Stubbs? Sure he scored 4 runs in the playoffs but that was because of Phillips. Players get cut performing like Stubbs did from August onward.
I’m ok with Heisey being a fourth outfielder. But use him a bit more in all 3 OF positions. He may thrive even more in that roll. I’ve been saying that for two years now. We saw a glimps of it this year.
8. Get bench players. Get all rookies to play the bench. Cairo meant father time this year, Valdez was a weaker hitting than I use to see and feel free to pinch hit your bench catcher. How often do you need an emergency catcher situation? Mesoraco can still learn by being a second catcher but he needs to have major league at bats. Why didn’t he improve at the plate at all this summer?
9. Call me crazy but I’m ok with Gregorious being our starting shortstop next year. Cozart can be Super Zack. Teach him some outfield as he has good speed, very good arm, athletic. Cozart can play some 3B, SS, 2nd, LF while Frazier can back up Votto. Have Cozart and Frazier be clones.
10. Run more, run more, run more. Cozart had good stolen base numbers in the minors. He should get 15 steals a year, so should Phillips, Bruce 10, Heisey 15, Gregorious 15. To much overall team speed not to steal more. Eric Davis can help with that aspect of the game.
As far as racism, I saw Dusty Baker being compared to Ron Washington and I only know of one similarity between the two men that separates other managers on the ‘hot seat’. I’ve always thought racism is the basis for much of the criticism of Dusty (and Obama); definitely not all, but some. If you’re better than that, good.
As far as Bobby Valentine, I think it’s worth pointing out that Bobby Valentine created a huge mess and controversy in Boston, something that Dusty Baker has NOT done here. With Dusty around we continue to have reason to be optimistic and reason for the players to want to come here (I mean, if Cueto, Votto, and Phillips requested trades like Adrian Gonzalez there would be a big mess) – replacing him isn’t guaranteeing an improvement.
Reds finished in first place with the second best win-loss record of all 30 teams in MLB and the team wants to bring the manager and coaches back – yep, talk about an insult to Reds fans. If the Reds respected fans they’d find somebody to blame.
The right idea is to start from scratch. Maybe Latos, he struggled on Thursday so his career should end. Fire everybody! At least dig up a few scapegoats to blame.
I haven’t heard anything about Speier or Price not wanting to be associated with Dusty – I think some fans blindly assume a rivalry or controversy between Price and Dusty because Price is seen by many fans as the voice of reason and Dusty as the village idiot… after all, anything good about the pitching staff is credited to Price, everything bad is on Dusty.
1. What Dusty enjoys is managing, and he’ll get another job elsewhere if he leaves Cincinnati. Maybe Boston or another opening.
2. Change can also be bad for a team that won 97 games.
3. Chris Speier is pretty old, and I doubt he begins a managerial career at this age.
4. Rolen, I think he’s clarified that when he retires he plans on spending more time with his children rather than coaching.
6. Devin Mesoraco is returning next season. I expect Dioner Navarro will get a better opportunity elsewhere (Houston maybe?) and the other catching prospect, Tucker Barnhart, was struggling after being promoted to AA.
7. Stubbs, probably they keep him until finding a replacement. They have one in Billy Hamilton who isn’t ready yet.
9. I’ll call you crazy. You’re crazy. Didi Gregorius couldn’t even hit in the minors this year. Best case scenario he’s become trade bait before people realize he can’t hit – like Juan Francisco.
10. Run more? Jay Bruce tried to steal third today and fans wanted Dusty fired as a result – after all, why would a team run? People only like aggressive baserunning when it’s successful.
The fact that Wilson Valdez almost had to come up and hit in what would have been probably an at bat for the season is an embarrassment to the Reds organization.
Despite the fact this team has taken probably 3 years off of my life (heart failure for the win; 6 months just today!)… 171 days until the Reds get to begin defending the NL-Central Championship. I’m already looking forward to the heart attacks next year will bring.
There are a number of off-season moves I’d like to see. First off, Cueto showed that he is a true stud!! Bailey and Bruce both took steps forward in the fashion that Cueto did last year! Frazier showed that he COULD be a stud next year and must be given a chance- one handed swing and all he is just a player who makes clutch plays. Is he Rolen’s replacement- I sure hope so. that gives us the freedom to look forward
A) Stud left fielder: trading for a stud is my thought as long as they are similar to Latos- young and controllable. Don’t know who to look at yet there must be some young studs.
B) Keep Stubbs in the outfield and bat him 8th every single game. When his light turns on-HMOG!
C) Move Chapman to the rotation then sign Broxton as I think he will be cheaper than Madsen
D) Use the bench to groom young players to take bigger roles
E) Speak with BP, about assuming a bigger leadership role as Rolen, Ludwick, Cairo, and Valdez are gone
F) Package Leake, maybe Heisey and a minor leaguer for the stud left fielder
G) Let the young talent in the organization develop while this group of studs beat up on the NL
Today was just a disappointment. Driving home from Tennessee scrolling through the FM stations just hoping to hear that the Reds are on top. Being only 22 years old, I have only seen one other good season to remember, 2010.
I don’t know what is more disappointing, this year or 2010. I do have faith in this team though. I see them dominating for years to come.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Dusty back. A 97 win season is something to brag about.
Great season!! Like everyone else, I am heartbroken over the last three games. However, I love my Reds! And I am glad to see Bruce coming around. As posted before, he is my favorite Red. It will be sad to see Rolen go, if he does, but it is hard to fight TIME. BP has been incredible as well as our pitching. I remember the days when we barely had one descent starting pitcher! I cant say enough about Latos stepping up on 3 days rest. I like that in my players!
I love the whole family atmosphere of this team, BUT, I still think there should be a couple changes. However, if there isn’t, I am still a die-heart Reds fan either way!!
Have a blessed off-season everyone!
laus Deo
@SFredsfan: I wouldn’t expect another package…the Reds are happy with what they have and probably won’t make a big splash.
That’s just my opinion though.
@rfay00:
I understand where you are coming from. And I like it also. Bob Howsam pulled off the deal that created the Big Red Machine. Can Jocketyy, make the same move? This is a brilliant young team with a long window ahead, yet to take the next step we need another difference maker. Someone incredible who really makes the Reds much better
Thanks very much for this, Steve. I was watching on tv and had similar feelings. Of course I’m very disappointed about the outcome, but what a thrilling game. The Reds just kept coming at them. Bruce’s AB was epic, part of me believed it was destiny that he was going to hit one out for a historic HR. I could recall the feeling I had when Bench (on two occasions) and Foster hit their game 5 HRs with the Reds down in the 9th.
It was a great season, the 2012 Reds will always have a place in my heart.
I could not find any coverage of this positive part of the Game 5 story anywhere else.
And of course this is not just a one year thing. The Reds are back.
Leadoff hitter is the big thing. That is the #1 need for this team, The 2 other issues LF and 3B Is Ludwick going to have this kind of season next yr?, Is Todd Fraizer a 1 yr wonder or will he be even better, I suspect he will be the latter. So this team has a good future assuming good health, 1 thing u cant assume.
This entire season has been crazy….
A friend who I call The Lurker — he lurks here but doesn’t post — told me in 2010 that he expected that year to be the steppingstone to what the Reds were building, and I soon shared that belief. Neither of us expected to actually win a division that year.
That’s somewhat the way I felt about this season, especially in the first two months and occasionally later, during the lengthier offensive droughts. Like maybe we remained a key player (or two) away from really becoming a force. But the wins kept coming and I set my sights higher.
This is my long way of saying that while this really hurts, I can still recognize it as a step. It won’t make the winter any shorter, but it should make the “hot stove league” just as fun to speculate on!!
I don’t see how a step is winning 97 games. What’s next? 105 games?
One of these times they need to win a postseason series. I realize there’s a lot of luck involved, but as far as I’m concerned, this year is about as good as it gets in the regular season.
I’m a Giants fan but your team has a terrific pitching corps and lots of fantastic young players. Gotta hope Votto can come back healthy and provide some pop – I think that really was an issue – he can’t just be a singles hitter. Dusty is a great guy (we loved him out here) but maybe he should yield to Speier, and concentrate on his health. Good luck next year. Your fans seem to be great too.
Too true. Those of us who have seen him nearly every day over the last 3 years can testify that a truly healthy Votto would have turned around game 4 with a gap shot or home run in one of the two opportunities he had before things went south in the 7th inning.
I feel great about the Reds future and the team showed a lot of character today. But of course there were some real disappointing moments in the last 3 games.
Latos will be better after he learns not to implode because a couple of calls don’t go his way. He did that a few times this year, including the time he got bailed out by the Stubbs bases loaded “trap” catch. I hope he learned something today, I think he did.
Pinson, good perspective, but I just can’t share this notion of learning something…I mean, sure, but you should learn things in some nondescript regular season game, not in game 5 of the NLDS.
I really hesitate to say someone let something get to his head, because that’s psychology, but Latos basically confirmed it, without saying it directly.
Me too but it was an expensive lesson that should have been learned during the regular season.
Still barring injury, the Reds look to head into next season with the top of the rotation nearly a 1A,1B,1C situation and Chapman presumably lurking in the wings.
It’s really interesting to watch the Yanks, up 2-1, throwing Soriano 2 innings. Are they worried about game 5? No. Soriano also pitched yesterday for 1 1/3 innings. And I bet he’ll pitch tomorrow if needed.
Hank’s teammate: That’s typical of how relief pitchers are used in the postseason, except by Dusty. Remember those Cardinal-Astro NLCSes back when Lidge was good ? He would pitch two innings for multiple days in a row.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: Yes this postseason was disappointing because the
Reds didn’t win a series. But compare it with the 2010 postseason, when the Reds were easily swept by a much better team, completely melted down in the one game they had a good chance to win, etc.
This team COULD have beaten the Giants, that’s the most disappointing part. But it’s better than being overmatched. The pitching was great except Game 4 and inning 5 of Game 5. The bats were there in Games 1, 2, and 5. (Even had 11 hits in Game 4.) The defense, for the most part, did its thing.
I see good times ahead.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: well, there’s 2010, when we get no-hit in one game and lose three straight in a playoff series…….then there’s 2012, where we have a laughable bench, some big injuries, some seemingly interminable offensive slumps during the season, and we still came within one game of being in the LCS. To me, it’s a step. Not nearly as big of a step as the team could have taken, of course.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: Yeh it was Latos’ statement that makes me think he may have learned something. He absolutely should have learned it during the regular season, it happened a few times in 2012, and who knows how many times in previous seasons.
@joebdoc:
Love your post. Long time SF resident but grew up in the nati. See ya next year!
A lot will be said about the end of the Red’s season. However, that should not take away from how truly amazing the 2012 season really was. 2012 saw the emergence of shortstop Zach Cozart and third base/first base/Heimlich maneuver extraordinaire/utility player, the one and only Super Todd Frazier. It saw a 19 game winner in Johnny Cueto.It saw a projected weakness, the bullpen, become the clubs biggest strength. Homer Bailey threw the first no hitter in Cincinnati since forever. Mat Latos turned around an abysmal start of the season, and became the Reds most dependable starting pitcher. The Reds ultra-dependable starting pitching didn’t miss a single start all year, with four out the five reaching 200 innings. Aroldis Chapman became an immovable force at the back of the bullpen. When Joey Votto went down with a torn meniscus, the Reds went ahead and rattled off a ten game win streak. Without Votto, the Reds had an improbably record of 32 wins and 16 losses. On top of all that, throw in 97 wins and a NL Central Championship banner. 2012 was a magical season. A magical REGULAR season, I should say.
Just read some of JoeyV’s comments about the situation with his knee and not being able to drive the ball with power. It left me wondering how many days it might be until we hear they’ve gone back in there and done more work and hope to have him at 100% by Spring Training….
@OhioJim: I would bet you are right, OJ. Surgery number three upcoming I would think for sure, and I hope it’s minor. In the annals of history, the disappointing ending would be a minor footnote if #19 has longterm problems.
As for this season, A. Bartlett wrote “Baseball breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart.” And the sadness isn’t the losing, which is certainly sad enough, but the summer’s companion has bid adieu for some time. And every year is the last for some players on every team, and this year it seems we might say goodbye to Scott Rolen. I think he was absolutely vital to this team having the confidence and attitude to become a contender. If he does leave, the team will miss him tremendously I am guessing. I may not be as old as Dusty or have his experience, but I also think the measure of the ballplayer exceeds his advanced mathematical analysis. I hope he’s back one more year as a role player as Frazier becomes a regular. I don’t know that I feel better with Rolen on the field, but I do feel better with him in the clubhouse.
What a fantastic season. Fun to share (mostly read) this blog throughout.
These are all insightful, well thought out comments, and I respect them. I firmly believe that Dusty Baker is a great regular season manager, but is an awful postseason manager. The Reds will NEVER win a postseason series with Dusty at the wheel, because he is too set in his ways to change his style. Leaving Latos in to face Posey was the last straw. Bochy pulled his starters all series with a swiftness that reminded me of Captain Hook, and look whose team won. This was a great season, but 2013 will be Groundhog Day if Dusty is allowed to return.
I am still physically ill from this series (can’t really eat much), but the Reds have a helluva team. I just knew they were done today after being down 6-0, but here they were in the 9th with a legit chance to walk off. After losing your best pitcher 8 pitches into the series and your best player reduced to nothing more than a good singles hitter, they were a pitch away from winning. Brandon Phillips is the real deal…him getting thrown out at 3rd had no more to do with them losing than the bad strike 3 call on Rolen or the bad strike 3 call on Hannigan or multiple other things. The usage of the bullpen in game 3 to protect them in games 4 and 5 was not a good move. Arredondo and Leake are simply not good but most teams have pitchers that are not good. I’m really proud of the Reds and not quitting when they could have many times. Opening Day 2013 is too far away but I’ll be there every step of the way.
Always remember Marty getting his haircut after a 10 game winning streak.
@vermilion red: Coincidentally, on mlb.com Meggie the college girl reporter gave the full quote on baseball from A. Bartlett Giamatti: “It breaks your heart. It is designed to break your heart. The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again, and it blossoms in the summer, filling the afternoons and evenings, and then as soon as the chill rains come, it stops and leaves you to face the fall alone.”
I remember the quote, it’s from an article he wrote about watching the Red Sox lose an elimination game on a cold and windy October day in Boston, his hopes gradually fading. He wrote about a key AB of Jim Rice that resulted in an out. I thought of that article and the quote today while Jay Bruce was having his epic 9th inning AB. Part of me was thinking game winning HR, the rest was thinking this is the sad end of the season.
@redsfanman: You are wrong, dead wrong. There is not one person here who doesn’t like Dusty Baker because of his skin color. Give me a break. You’re just, as usual, inventing things in an “I must mischaracterize everything to make myself look smart” manner.
In terms of managerial ability, I see Dusty Baker most like Jim Leyland, who I think is overrated as a manager. But Leyland is white, so I guess I’m allowed to say that?
Not one person, also, suggested replacing Dusty Baker with Bobby Valentine; that was your invention. Maybe you can say that I don’t want Valentine (he’d be miles worse than Baker) because Valentine is Italian?
In terms of Baker’s ability, he’s a fine regular season manager; baseball is a grind, and he seems reasonably good at the grind stuff, not that I can be sure, while he struggles with strategy and is both good and bad with the loyalty thing. But in the postseason, he simply is not a good manager. He is far too conservative and passive. This has nothing to do with the success or failure of the moves. If they would have taken Latos out today, and Lecure had given up the salami, I certainly would not have questioned Baker. Same thing yesterday with Leake. Both moves were absolutely fine regular season type moves, but simply not absolutely fine postseason moves.
Should they get rid of Baker? It would depend on who they could get. I’d never get rid of a manager at this stage without already knowing who the replacement is. I would not get rid of him just to get rid of him, that’s for sure.
And, everyone here wants Latos off the Reds…except…everybody. That’s invention #3 of yours. Are people disappointed that he lost his cool? Yes. So what?
You’re positive Mesoraco is back next year, just like you were positive he’d be on the postseason roster. Is there ever any doubt about roster decisions with you? I don’t think it’s clear he’ll be back.
I’m not that enamored with Gregarious as a starting SS, but I’m also far less high on Zack Cozart than most here.
As for aggressive baserunning, I’m not a fan at all. I would be interested if someone has studied the Reds’ aggressive plays over the year and figure out if it’s a net positive or a net negative.
@jessecuster44: You remind me of a discussion on mlbnetwork radio before the Reds’ game 5. They have a great respect for Jim Leyland and Dusty, but talked about how they’re set in their ways and don’t change what they do much in the post season, and in contrast how proactive Bochy is.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: Just as you were posting your comment, I was posting mine above about the mlbnetwork guys describing Leyland and Dusty as similar.
@redsfanman – I need to pile on here. I also heard the race card thrown out on the radio during my ride home from the game.
I feel like this comment came totally out of left field. I honestly could not fathom where it came from. I have to say — It infuriated me. I found it down right insulting as a fan. I don’t like when people throw the race card. I believe in the content of character and a person being judged based on their actions. I think its wrong to throw down the race card because you basically are saying that no one can criticize someone who isn’t white. Because — well — “he’s black.. so thats why people don’t like him”. Really? Thats what the defense of Dusty is? I’ve heard people defend Dusty .. and with plausible explanations for his decisions. I’ve listened to Dusty defend his decisions. Throwing down the race card is WEAK! and its insulting to fans that the person throwing it can’t come up with better explanations as to why to keep Dusty.
I think people who have had problems with Dusty — have problems with his decisions. Not him as a person. And they have come with facts and examples of things they didn’t like in terms of his managing. I don’t think anyone has any doubt as to whether the players love Dusty. They do. I don’t see people bashing Dusty for the sake of bashing Dusty.
Personally – At this point, I’m pretty torn about Dusty. I’ve heard and read arguements from both sides. But I’d rather hear the for and against than have the race card thrown down as an explanations for dissent.
At the end of the day .. I think Hank Aarons Teammate is right — they aren’t just going to willy nilly get rid of Dusty. And you certainly don’t drop him for the sake of dropping him or because he lost the series this week. But — I do think that if a better option comes up — someone who will blend well with the players on this team, especially those in for the long haul like Phillips and Votto … then you have to ask the question of “Should it be considered” .. ? The answer is yes. Does that mean definitively that they go with another prospect? no. But the consideration should be made. All good and big decisions are thought through. This one should be too.
(Sorry if I got long winded there)
Great season by the Reds. Gotta give the Giants a lot of credit. It’s hard to pinpoint what led to the Reds collapse. It almost didn’t seem like a collapse. It seemed like the Giants just endured. Losing Cueto and the effectiveness of the Giants bullpen really were surprises to me. It seemed that losing Cueto just kept catching up to the Reds every game.
The Giants starting pitching was very mediocre. Their bullpen really carried them, which was supposed to be the case for the Reds.
I thought Dusty managed ok in this series. There weren’t any moves that seemed just really bad that he made in my opinion. It may have been nice to have Frazier start one more game I think to get his power in there, but the Reds players just didn’t come through.
I would say Dusty’s postseason track record is something of a concern though when evaluating whether they are going to bring him back. It’s disconcerting to say the least. The Reds have to decide whether they want to keep that organizational consistency with the same manager (like the Cards with Larussa), or if they think they need someone new to push them over the top.
Who knows if Cueto pitched if the Reds win the series. Votto is so good that he still had a .500obp, but who knows if he was healthy if he cracks a couple of homers in the series to make a difference? I think those questions are a bit tough to swallow, but the Giants deserved it. Their resillency was unexpected coming back to Cincinnati. Lots of credit to the them in the end.
The morning after and it still hurts. It’s not the losing that hurts the most it’s the way they lose. Losing I can take. Losing by way of a historic collapse, two years after being run out of the playoffs while being no hit in your first post-season game in 15 years isn’t just losing it’s humiliating. I’m certain that Dusty will be back next year. The owner has said publicly he wants him and it’s his team, so clearly he can do whatever he wants, but don’t expect a lot of people to buy into the “we’re here to win championships talk” when you keep a manager that has epic post-season failure in his DNA. In the post season Dusty doesn’t just lose, he loses in grand, history making fashion. As a manager, Dusty Baker has been to the post season five times with three teams and each of his three teams have been knocked-out of the post-season after surrendering multiple game leads with an opportunity to close out their opponents (see Games 6 and 7 SF vs Anaheim in 2002 WS and games 6 and 7 Chicago vs Florida in 2003 NLCS). Now add to that games 3, 4, and 5 Cincinnati vs SF in 2012 NLDS. I think I see a pattern here. I know Big Bob wants to win championships but by keeping that guy in the dugout he’s sending me the message, he really doesn’t know how.
Agreed. Surely Big Bob is aware of the pattern; does he just chalk it up to bad luck? How recently has he shown public support for Dusty?
It’s very difficult to see an opportunity squandered like this. I’m still shocked that Dusty effectively conceded game 4 when the Reds trailed only 3-2 and 5-3 in the middle innings. Did Dusty notice that Phillips, Votto and Ludwick each struck out against a different pitcher in the fourth inning of that game? Imagine that – a manager making moves in a playoff game that likely would not have been made in the regular season. Go figure.
The Reds are loaded and should be back in the playoffs in coming seasons, but you never know. I’m disheartened to think that if they do make it back, we’ll still have the ‘Dusty tax’ to contend with again. Sorry, but I’m obviously still depressed about this series. I’ll be more upbeat by next Spring.
Dusty made mistakes, sure, but you can’t blame this post season collapse on him. We had 12 baserunners after Posey’s slam. We left 8 guys on in the first 3 or 4 innings on Wednesday, and we failed to put the Giants away early on Tuesday. Our lack of ability to push runs across the plate is what hurt us, not the couple of mistakes that were made by the manager.
Dusty seems like a good man but I don’t want him back. Tony LaRussa anyone? Hello. Remind me again how many first round playoffs we’ve advanced? Zero! Up 2-0 and you can’t win three at home! Think about something like that happening in NY or Philly. Please. We just had a monumental collapse at home. You don’t reward a Manager for that debacle.
@GeorgeFoster: His teams don’t just lose and lose in grand fashion, they do it by melting down. This under a guy who is the supposed master of clubhouse psychology. Four of the biggest post season meltdowns of all time have occurred since 2003 and Dusty’s teams have been three of those. The other was the 2004 Yankees where Torre got something of a pass because he already had more World Series rings than he could wear.
Moreover, wasn’t Scott Rolen supposed to be the clubhouse leader, blah, blah. He might not be the best player, but he’ll motivate the troops. With Scott Rolen, an epic meltdown isn’t possible.
I think the clubhouse presence thing is largely a myth. The players and manager have to go out there and win the games.
Greetings from Los Angeles… This was a great article and summary, I can’t applaud you enough for posting – and in such a gracious fashion. I am 42, and have been a die hard Reds fan my whole life (though I hadn’t been to Cincinnati until age 40). The machine as a kid growing up were my heroes. So I’ve since decided to go to Cincy every year for at least one series. We have months to analyze what happened and what should have been different – but what I love about what you posted is that you focused on the virtues of the fans, the players and the club. This was an awesome season, and as Larkin tweeted “I hate the way it ended but awfully proud of how the Reds played ’til the end.”
It was a great game – I had invested so much emotionally this season – even from out here – as I’ve seen about half of the games on the MLB package and have spent more than my share on paraphernalia. During the game I was actually analyzing different ways I was sitting in my chair – and in which chair I sat in thinking that one would be luckier than the other. I was convinced I was emotionally connected as I looked down at the muscles in my forearms spasming during the Bruce at bat in the bottom of the ninth (which freaked me out a bit). It seemed like after the sixth, the seventh and the eighth – it had to be destiny – it had to be a walk off…
But it’s definitely a time for healing now – analyzing later… Just two things I’d like to say though:
a) I love Dusty! (even though we all think he should have pulled some pitchers earlier – but 97 wins, come on!)
b) I hope to heck the Nats pull it off tomorrow!
I’m guessing these comments are about 90% similar to the comments everyone made after the 2010 playoff loss?
I love this site. The loss yesterday still hurts too much for me to even read any articles elsewhere about the game so I don’t know what comments players have made. This is the only place I can go to read about my beloved Reds right now. I’ve got to say though, the arrogant, condescending attitute of a certain poster is really getting to me. Yesterday in the game thread another poster commented on how he doesn’t post much and then went on to say how stupid the posters were for what they were saying. I think he called them idiots. As I was reading it at work I thought that when I got home I would respond and say if that was his/her attitude I’m glad they didn’t post much. We all have one thing in common, we love our Reds. While we might disagree on things there is no need to get nasty.
I’m afraid Dusty will be back next year if he wants to come back. I haven’t liked his management since he came here. He seems like a very nice man. I hope his health is OK. I wish him well in life. I just don’t want him in the Reds dugout. His race has nothing to do with that but some people will believe that no matter what I say. So be it. It’s not true.
I’ve seen a lot of people point the blame at certain things that lead to this series loss, whether it Brandon Phillips getting thrown out at third in game 3, or Ryan Hannigan’s passed ball, Scott Rolen’s error, Mat Latos meltdown at pitches he thought were strikes, and so on. I don’t think you can blame one thing. The team didn’t do what they needed to do to win.
I’m already looking forward to spring training. My family will be at Redsfest. Thanks to the guys who run this site. It’s the best.
Dusty makes some of the most maddening lineup decisions in the history of the game, but I still don’t understand the postseason criticism of him.
Exactly how did he manage the postseason differently than the regular season? Was he the one who went 1-for-Godknowshowmany in the three games at GABP? The people he sent to the plate were more than capable of producing runs. Unfortunately they didn’t do so when it mattered.
One could argue that he fails to motivate his teams in the postseason, but in my opinion if you’re a player and you need someone else to motivate you in the playoffs then there is something very wrong with you.
I wouldn’t shed a tear to see Dusty leave. I’ve seen all the Corey Pattersons I care to see in my lifetime. I just don’t see how this three game collapse is his fault.
Thanks for all the entertaining posts and comments this year! It was a fun (albeit sometimes maddening) season. As we Reds fans have said for twenty years, there’s always next year.
I think the point is that he *doesn’t* manage differently in the postseason. Look at Bochy, and Larussa last year, man they did not leave their starters in to get bombed. Pinch hitting Cairo in a 5-2 game on Wednesday because you are saving your better pinch hitters for a rainy day. That sort of thing.
The postseason is just different. Baker left Ortiz in in game 6 too long; he left Kerry Wood in to give up 7 runs, I think, in game 7 vs the Marlins. It’s a pattern.
I still remember that Lou Piniella pitched Rob Dibble to get the save in game 4 of the NLCS in a game that Dibble absolutely wasn’t available for (said Piniella), but they needed a pinch hitter and there he was in the game. The point is that postseason needs to be managed with urgency.
@RedZeppelin:
I think that’s the point. He was still managing like he had 100 more games this year.
You could just as easily say that his players were playing like they had 100 more games this year. Dusty made some debatable calls in the series for sure, but what isn’t debatable is that his team didn’t perform when they needed to.
Well, he did a lot of things differently. . .
1) He handled Cueto’s injury in game 1 BRILLIANTLY. No question about that; he used Latos in relief, but was smart enough to have LeCure in their first.
2) He pinch hit Stubbs yesterday for Frazier (worked, by the way).
3) He bucked conventional wisdom and made Arroyo his game 2 starter, when, arguably, he is our 4th best starter. Again, worked brilliantly.
Dusty Baker = Marty Schottenheimer
Please add a “with RISP” to my second paragraph up there. Thank you.
Memo to self: Don’t post before first cup of coffee.
@Love4Reds: I assume Manny Acta is available. I know the Indians had a monumental collapse in the 2nd half, but I really like his approach and willingness to look at different angles.
Re: Scott Rolen. I would love to have him back next, IF he were willing to assume Miguel Cairo’s role (which is what should have happened this year). If not (and I don’t think he would), then you just can’t re-sign him, can you?
Does anybody have a screen shot of the Hanigan strikeout pitch? Have heard different things about it.
I don’t have a shot of it but I saw it on Sportscenter this morning and their pitch tracker showed that it was clearly outside.
From what I’ve seen, the pitch was a ball, but given the situation, probably too close to take. The umpiring hasn’t exactly been solid this postseason. Bruce realized that and kept fouling off all those pitches.
On one of the replays they had a real good shot of it from behind the plate and it wasn’t even close enough to call borderline.
My only complaints with Dusty this series was his bullpen management (surprise!) in games 3 & 4 (and maybe a little in game 5).
It’s hard to pin the loss on having Broxton in the game in the 10th of game 3, I mean he should have got out of that inning. I still think Dusty should have extended both Marshall/Chapman to get more than 6 outs combined.
Bringing Arredondo in in a 2(or 3) run game in the 7th is an inexcusable move.
Things did get out of hand in a hurry for Latos yesterday. He got squeezed a little and it clearly messed with him. I couldn’t believe with the middle of the order up in that situation, Dusty went straight to LeCure. Assuming Sam was warm, is there much difference between Lecure and a slightly tired Latos facing Posey? If Marshall/Broxton/Chapman would have been warming, then I absolutely would have felt better about either one of them facing Posey.
But that’s about the extent of my Dusty complaints this series. As Cincinnati Dave says above, he did some unpredictable things as well. Still don’t care for him as an X’s and O’s manager, and if he’s back in 2013 I’m sure he’ll make 342 decisions that will make my blood boil. But it’s hard to pin this all on him though. The team collectively just couldn’t come up with a big hit with ducks on the pond at home.
Does anybody think Terry Franchona wishes he had waited a week, and seen this job open, this team would be in the W.S.
If he wants the job, LaRussa. I’d feel much better having him in the Dugout than anyone else.
I REALLY hate to call a guy out after a tough loss, and you could tell how bad he was beating himself up about it, but to me Hanigan cost us the game. His pitch calling thru the first 4 innings was spot-on. He knew Latos had a good fastball working, and called for it nearly exclusively. However, when the 5th inning rolled around, from the first batter forward, it was readily apparent the Giants had made the adjustment and were looking dead red. Every single hit came off a fastball, and yet the pattern didn’t change. The Posey at-bat epitomized this failure to adjust. In that situation you needed a ground ball in the worst way, and because of the high and tight 1-2 fastball, we had him set up to roll over a slider and hopefully get that double play. Instead, Hanny called for ANOTHER fastball, on the inside corner of all places, and KABOOM. Simply from a risk/reward standpoint, it was a low percentage play.
The refusal to adjust on the fly smacked of hubris, pride, and a dash of naivety. I really can’t blame Latos because he put the ball exactly where Hanigan wanted it all day. Had the adjustments been made earlier in the inning, I believe Latos could’ve lasted deep into the ballgame. His stuff was excellent.
Perhaps I’ll eventually be known on this site as the perpetual optimist, and if so I won’t have any problems with that. Like the rest of you I fret about roster make-up, nightly lineups, in game decisions and the like. But like the rest of you I also love this team win or lose, and for that reason this was a great year of baseball. Ten teams make the playoffs and only one wins the World Series. So this was a long shot from the start, especially for a team that hadn’t won a post-season game let alone a series. Epic collapse? Not the way I see it. Disappointing ending at the hands of another good, persistent team? Absolutely. But the Reds will be back and I’ll be watching. Cheering. Celebrating.
So until hope springs eternal again next year, I want to just say thank you. To Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Jay Bruce, Homer Bailey, Drew Stubbs and all the Reds, to Bob Castellini and the ownership group, to Dusty Baker, Chris Speier, Bryan Price and the entire staff, and to all the fans. I had fun. Let’s do it again. And finally, I want to say thank you to Chad, Steve, Bill, Greg, Jason, and the crew that lovingly maintains this site, and all the other loyal fans that give it teeth. I don’t live anywhere close to Cincinnati (Atlanta and that hideous chop surround me), so I don’t get that “How about those Reds” daily interaction. This is my home as a Reds fan. I just found RN this year and I plan to stay. Thank you!
To those of you who want to see where the fateful Cain pitch to Hanigan was, click here and scroll down to the fourth graph. It’s pitch #8.
He should have swung…that was uncharacteristic for Hannigan.
Baker has played 10 games with a chance to close out a postseason series since 2002 World Series Game 6. His teams are 1-9 in those potential clinchers.
Baker is one of 20 managers to win more than 1,500 major league games. But only two of those 20 prolific winners have never won a World Series: Gene Mauch and Baker.
You all really want Baker back?
How many of you are going to watch the rest of the playoffs? I think i’m done with baseball for a while. truly an epic season with the cruelest of finishes
Over the years, I’ve been as critical of Dusty Baker as just about anyone here. But to put the blame on him for the team not winning this series is ridiculous. Managers make dozens of decisions over the course of a series and of course it’s possible to second guess a few. But if you’re looking to figure out why the Reds lost, try these three things on before you get to Baker:
1. The Reds 19-game winning pitcher went out of game one after throwing eight pitches. Injuries happen to every team. But losing Cueto, particularly this way, without any warning and having to totally reorganize the plans for the pitching staff on the fly, that’s your #1 factor, right there.
2. The Reds former MVP first baseman played the entire series being unable to hit or field like he normally does.
3. The San Francisco Giants are good. Buster Posey is the league MVP. He hit a pitch.
The Reds won 97 games this year and won their division. Postseason series are mainly 50-50 propositions anyway. Having a manager with the talent of having their clubs win the division is a far more important part of winning the World Series than finding one with a successful postseason track record.
I’m not saying there are no legitimate reasons to not want Baker back next year, but what happened the last three days isn’t one of them, in my opinion.
Steve, you are probably my favorite poster/commenter/writer on this site (no offense to anyone else). I get what you mean, but I just don’t think (hope?) that anyone is “blaming” Baker for the loss. I mean, if Bruce hits it in the river, is Baker a genius for winning the series?
I think that the thing is, though, that the three things you listed are unavoidable. They cannot be controlled. On the other hand, Baker can control his managerial decisions. Yes, any move can be second guessed, and I think I’m fairly careful to second guess things reflexively. But it can, I think, be said that holistically, Baker does not manage with urgency. It’s interesting that when he finally got desperate (down 6-0 in game 5, kind of day late, dollar short), he brought Marshall in in the 6th, for example. Not Arredondo, Hoover, etc. I wonder if Latos gets out of the 5th with 2 runs if Baker does that. I bet not. This is just indicative of the methodical, conservative approach that drives me nuts. Watching other teams, it was clear to me that most (not all) were managed with a much greater sense of urgency than the Reds are. For example, would he have considered bringing Marshall in in the 5th? NO! But he should, he’s got the backend of the bullpen to do it in an elimination game.
What’s painful is that if Baker stays and they win the Central again, we’re going to have all the same questions going into the NLDS next year. There are worse things, of course. They could dump Baker and get a worse manager and not win the Central, for example.
At nearly 50-50 odds in a short series vs two good teams, you want to do everything you can to tip the house odds in your favor. I think Dusty game strategy, esp in short series, is one factor that tips the house odds in the opponent’s favor.
Whether that’s a big enough deal to fire him over or not, I don’t know.
I agree with that. Baker’s presumed liability as an in-game manager and line-up constructor certainly could impact a short postseason series more than they do a 162-game regular season when talent and good health generally win out. But sometimes the regular season race is extremely close too, and having a manager whose clubhouse style helps win over six months may ultimately be more important in winning the World Series.
On the other hand, maybe it’s possible to find a manager who does both. As I said, there are legit reasons for not supporting Baker back, despite a 97-win seasons. I just don’t think the outcome of the Giants series is one of them.
Right on both Steve and Greg. To me, it’s very difficult to determine what to do about Baker. If one believes the playoffs are just luck, you bring him back for sure. If one believes you need every advantage in the postseason, and you find a very good candidate, then maybe you make a move.
I can’t believe the team with the second best record in baseball (and at times, the best), playing at home with just needing ONE WIN to win it all, that they blew it. What in the world happened. Yep, I know – that’s how baseball goes, but I can’t see any excuse for this.
What I think needs to happen SOON is:
1. Fire Dusty (he lost one of these games)
2. GET RID OF CAIRO AND VALDEZ
3. Get rid of Arrondo and Andrusek
4. Get rid of Rolen (I like him a lot, but I think it’s time for him to go and let Todd play 3rd)
5. Get rid of Leake – he’s just not the pitcher he used to be
6. Get Billy Hamilton to Louisville and get him ready for the Reds
7. Get Drew Stubbs to an eye doctor and make sure he does not have Sabo’s problem (yes, he can field fine, but is he seeing the pitches when it comes close to him – I don’t think so)
8. Get some good hitting bench players
There you have it. We’ll see what happens.
@Steve Mancuso: it’s hard for me to look back and think the stars weren’t aligning this season for the reds. LA and Miami , Philly, and NY, are looking to have bounce back seasons next year. The reds’ pitching was the best i’ve seen easily in my 29 years, who knows if that can be repeated next year? I’m not saying whether or not to bring dusy back, i just wonder what the reds’ FO feels like they need to do to win WS next season if this season didn’t do it.
The Reds need an upgrade on offense. They only managed an 90 OPS+ as a team this year. That’s way below league average and easily the worse of all the NL playoff teams (not counting the play-in braves). And OPS/OPS+ overrates the reds offense because the Reds OPS is SLG%. The Reds had a .315 OBP, that’s below league average, while playing in GABP.
Votto for 150 instead of 100 will help. I wouldn’t count on Ludwick to repeat this again, but I still think a $5M option is reasonable. The Reds need to sign some Ludwick “insurance” though. I would look to sign a bat at the corner OF or 3b, with Frazier being able to cover either.
Another reasonable option is to just give up on Stubbs. The man has been in a 2 year spiral, and I’m not sure if he’s ever going to get out of it in Cincinnati. Bourn and Pagan are both FA, but they might be out of the budget.
Overall point, the Reds need to upgrade the lineup and have a few spots were they can easily do that.
@Steve Mancuso: In hindsight do u feel like the Reds’ should have handled Votto differently? (post Sep 1?)
Without knowing how Votto’s knee really feels compared to how it should feel after two surgeries, that’s hard to say from the outside. It may be that his condition is exactly as one should expect and that the Reds handled it (post Sept. 1) the only way they could from a health standpoint.
Clearly, as I’ve said from the very first of his injury, the way the organization handled Votto’s injury at the start was tragic. Allowing him to play for over a week with it may have worsened his condition and made the prospect for his recovery worse. So no home runs since June 29 may be part of that. Other than that, how did you enjoy the play Mrs. Lincoln?
I’ve written for a couple weeks (not hindsight) that the Reds should have faced the reality of Votto’s limitations in the short run and moved him out of the #3 spot up to leading off. Would that have made a difference? Who knows. Brandon Phillips did a good job leading off (OBP .360) but Votto would have been better (OBP .500). Votto came up a few times in big situations where the threat of the long ball or double was important. I’d have rather had Jay Bruce or Ryan Ludwick (or Brandon Phillips) up in any of those situations.
One way or another, his condition was a fatal handicap for the Reds. I’m already looking forward to the return of JoeyMVP next spring.
If the Reds do not re-sign Dusty Baker, they have to go out and get someone that would be even better. Who is available?? Who could the Reds get or lure to Cincinnati? Sweet Lou out of retirement?? No thanks. Tito Francona is already signed. I think he would have been a good one. Kevin Kennedy? No, he can stay in television. Jim Riggleman?? No thanks. I mentioned Buck Showalter back in August, but since the Orioles made the playoffs, that’ll never happen now. Pete MacKanin is available, but no. Ozzie might be available soon, but a BIG no. Ryne Sandberg?? Maybe, but no big league managing experience. Barry Larkin?? No managing experience at all, but has front office experience. I like Larkin here. Could Walt J. coax Tony LaRussa out of retirement?? That would be terribly ironic, TLR managing the Reds. If the Reds cannot get Larkin or TLR to manage, then they should leave it in Dusty’s hands.
I didn’t realize till just now that Ludwick’s $5M option is a mutual, not a team option. Given his age and production in 2012, he’ll likely want a 2-3 year deal from someone. No idea what the market will be for him, but GABP is sure good to him.
@Steve Mancuso: Maybe the Reds should have “Strasburg’d” Votto for the playoffs at some point? Should be interesting to see if Votto needs to go back in again for surgery? Should that have gotten done Sep 1? All speculation of course but 2012 postseason pales in comparison to the long term health of joeymvp. Watching him this past month + was like looking into the future joey 8 years from now. very disappointing.
As you eluded to in your wonderful written game recap mr mancuso, I feel a huge positive from this postseason 2012 was the fan support and crowd energy displayed by a city who always is ready for the dagger in the heart and yet time and time again comes back for the pain. Also, I believe i heard soccer chants in the crowd? I cannot remember a reds crowd ever being so wonderful! am i exaggerating?
@Hank Aarons Teammate: I think the sad truth is we all know this front office isn’t very proactive about handling a problem. Having said that, i’m not sure firing dusty is the answer, although his track record in the post season is nothing to write home about
@Hank Aarons Teammate: I believe u made a great assessment earlier today or yesterday about latos and his fastball. Seemed like 95% of his pitches were fastballs. can’t be that hard to hit after a few innings? wonder what the exact pitch chart was in comparison to his other games against Giants (whom didn’t he dominate in the past?) wondering if he threw more change-ups and breaking balls in the past
About Latos and his fastballs, I don’t believe in second guessing a particular pitch call by Hanigan (as someone else alluded to), I mean, if they throw a slider and Posey hits it, then we all say how dumb it was because Posey had popped two fastballs up in ABs 1 and 2.
But overall, I think that I would complain about the general philosophy the Reds took in their game plan for Latos. It was clearly by design and not some kind of accident, but it just didn’t work. I mean, Latos had great—not good, but great—control yesterday, and they still got some hits off of him. In other games he threw a ton of sliders. Latos’ fastball is not *that* good. He’s not Verlander. In other words his fastball is not good enough to just throw nearly exclusively. It’s a low to mid 90′s fastball with not a ton of movement.
Honestly, I am guessing that Latos is never going to be a superstar pitcher in this league, after observing him for a full year. I think he should and will likely be a very good #2 pitcher. That’s great, I’m not complaining at all; he’s cheap and very good. Maybe he’ll get better; it’s possible. I hope so. Just my opinion/guess.
This was brought up on BBTF pre-implosion. I had concerns early on in the game as Latos was primarily throwing heat and while he had good control over it, he wasn’t exactly painting the black. The general discussion was the fb was working and by not showing his slider/offspeed stuff till the 2nd or 3rd time through the order, it might be to his advantage. He went to the slider some in the 4th/5th, but ultimately didn’t have great success with it. He just threw a really bad cutter over the plate to one of the 5 best hitters in the NL.
Another Mancuso harping point i believe throughout the season: the overratedness of a closer. And although he was ineffective in the first game it was really the only meaningful inning Chapman pitched in. Wondering in the 3 losses how many innings Chapman could have thrown if u base his appearances solely on leverage. would u have chapman facing posey in 5th yesterday if u are reds manager mr mancuso?
Well, he actually pitched a meaningful inning in game 3 also. But your point is correct. If Chapman can’t pitch 2 innings out of the pen in a postseason series, like many other closers are doing, why is he the closer? The difference in general between Broxton and Chapman is much larger than the difference between Rivera and whoever the Yanks setup guys were when Rivera was in his prime, yet Rivera always went 2 innings.
I keep thinking Chapman might (MIGHT) be that starter that you can throw in in an elimination or key postseason game and expect a shutdown performance from.
Editing my prior post: chapman worked total of 3 innings i believe? I would argue that they all came at wrong times though
The play I am thinking about now was that play Cozart didnt make, In retrospect maybee he should have gone to 1st u give up a run but u get to 2 outs in the inning, maybee that slams the door in the inning, just a thought.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: 2 main focuses of reds offseason should be developing chappy’s other pitches and his command of them and making him a starter and GETTING VOTTO’S KNEE HEALTHY!!!!!!!!! sorry! had to yell at FO for a sec
@Steve Mancuso: Or, as Billy Beane was quoted as saying in Moneyball, “My $%^# doesn’t work in the playoffs.” Short series, short sample size, anything can happen. I’m no fan of Dusty, but there were plenty of potential tuning points in this series, and most of them didn’t directly involve Dusty.
I’ve been wondering in hindsight about the idea of using Chapman against Posey in the 5th – I’d do it in a heartbeat in a deciding playoff game. But was there really time to get Chapman warmed up in advance of the situation? At the point where you start thinking that a particular 3/4/5/6th inning at bat might warrant it, do you really have enough time to make it happen?
When did Lecure start warming. In game 4, Bochy had Kontos warming after THREE guys got on in the first. In a game 5, I have someone warming as soon as Crawford gets a triple.
Yes, *someone*. But at what point would you decide it should be Chapman?
Oh, I can’t say. Your question is a good one. I’m not on Baker for not bringing in Chapman there, but I wish he’d not wait so long to get guys up in the pen.
I know there’s plenty of time to discuss this, but I hope it’s eventually addressed:
I look back at the articles at the time of Votto’s surgery and I read over and over how it’s a minor procedure and it’s best to get it done and have him healthy for the stretch run and I ask – what the heck happened? There was never any indication he would be so far removed from his former self in September, much less October. Probably wouldn’t have mattered and he still found a way to get on base plenty, but I wish someone with the Reds would address the difference in the prognosis & the actual recovery.
I’m curious who fans want to replace Dusty Baker. Somebody wise, with a history of success in both the regular season and postseason, who players and fans respect… who makes good decisions and understands Sabermetrics. But who?
David Bell, the 40 year old AAA manager?
Chris Speier, the 62 year old with no managerial experience?
Jose Oquendo, 49, the Cardinals coach with no managerial experience?
Jim Riggleman, the 59 year old who quit as the Nationals manager because he and his .445 career winning percentage was too good for them?
Manny Acta, 43, fired by both the Nationals and Indians with a .418 winning percentage?
Jim Tracy, 56, recently resigned from the Rockies and having a .493 career winning percentage?
I don’t think there’s any obvious candidate available to justify replacing Dusty Baker with after his team won 97 games.
Sure there is. You just don’t know who he is. Why should you? You’re a fan, after all. Those resumes don’t come across your desk. Or mine.
I’ve heard this rationale for keeping Baker over and over again: “Well, tell who would be better? You can’t.”
We aren’t supposed to have that information. However, the people in the front office do. Of the 6 people you listed all are just obvious and well known names. Just because Baseball is an an old boys network that recycles guys like Riggleman and Valentine and Baker doesn’t mean there aren’t qualified people out there in the minors who have the qualities to put the Reds over the top. But you can’t find them if you don’t have the vision to expand your available pool beyond the same, tired old options.
The real question should be, “What managerial qualities does the organization value?”
Answer that, and you’re halfway there.
DINGDINGDINGDINGDING!!! As I said in some thread before yeaterday’s game, this organization does not draft for plate discipline or OBP, doesn’t coach it in the minors or expect it in the majors. Why would they suddenly hire a manager based on it?
I read articles regarding other teams’ managerial searches since they frequently mention the same few candidates, including guys like Jose Oquendo who have interviewed for several different managerial openings.
Yep, obvious and well known names. Recycled names like Walt Jocketty, Dusty Baker, and Jim Riggleman have already been hired into this organization. I think the Reds value having an experienced and reputable manager who the players like and who doesn’t cause controversy or create a distraction. They constantly express support for those aspects of Dusty’s performance. Answer “what managerial qualities does the organization value” and you’ll instantly eliminate most candidates, especially guys with no MLB coaching experience.
Primarily I think they’re looking for somebody who doesn’t cause problems and who has a history of success, which eliminates many candidates, but not 3x Manager of the Year winner Dusty Baker following his 97 win season.
Joe Maddon, we’ll see, but I expect he’s headed back to Tampa Bay.
Didn’t Maddon already sign a new contract extension with Tampa Bay at the beginning of this year??? If the Reds were to go after him, I’m sure there would be compensation to pay, a la the Boston-Chicago Cubs mess with Theo. That is something to avoid. I would go after Barry Larkin. I think he has the chutz-pah for the job, even with no managing experience. He also could keep some of the coaching staff intact and to help him. Guys like Spier, Hatcher, and Price. I am not including Jacoby in that group. A new hitting coach and hitting philosophy need to be installed.
Write a big fat check to Joe Maddon.
From the handling of the overall pitching staff, to the selection of the roster to the daily lineups in the 5 games, Dusty and the crew never played this as playoff baseball. You have to go into every series with a totally different game plan then what you have during a 162 game series. This has been a fault of Dusty as long as he has managed, and won’t change, so the odds of the Reds ever winning the WS is much slimmer then it might be with someone else managing this team.
I am pleased, but not surprised that there is so civility here. I am still hurting. I was at work getting test messages from my wife was “Your man struck out. Game over.”. I know it must have been more painful to watch or listen to that texting, so again, it is great to see this website so civil.
I am a little surprised that no one has written these words yet:
WAIT ‘TIL NEXT YEAR!
Please insert “the last” between “wife” and Your”. And yes, I meant text messages.
“Sometimes you just get tired of disappointments.’’ -Dusty Baker
I’m largely indifferent about keeping Dusty. His seeming inability to accept any criticism of or give explanation for his decisions is very frustrating, and at least from my perspective he does not seem to accept any sort of challenge to his decision making process as reasonable or worthwhile. RLN favorite “we have to get him going” is such a cop out. But I don’t follow other teams/mangers that closely, so maybe it’s not unusual. That said, he did show some adaptability in (finally, maybe reluctantly, maybe too late, probably not enough) moving Hannigan up in the lineup (even if it was just one spot). I think most people would also agree that even though his insistence on sticking with veterans can be unnerving and frustrating, using Hannigan as the primary catcher over Mes paid dividends in terms of the development of the pitching staff as well as the positives of his offensive and defensive contributions. I’m also glad that Arroyo got another chance after last year’s mess. He is so fun to watch when he is pitching like he can. As far as Cozart, it was frustrating seeing him struggle, but I think part of that may be based on seeing his potential in the field not necessarily carrying over to the batting. This was his rookie season, and having the pressure of batting leadoff or second for a team that struggled to get on base surely had to slow his development. I expect a lot more from him and am excited about watching his development.
I prefer players whose actions speak louder than their words and think the team is primarily made up of that type of player. That sort of approach can seem maddening when it appears the team is just going through the motions. Maybe if Dusty didn’t come back there would an increased sense of urgency. But I haven’t really thought that idea through though, so many it wouldn’t work.
I started following RLN last season, but over the offseason is when I really got into it. I think we’re lucky to have such great posters and the level of discourse from the commentators is great too. I rarely think I have anything to add to the conversations, but I always think the commentary is worthwhile even when I don’t agree with it. I definitely checked the website at least once or twice a day every day this season, and during many of the games was constantly hitting refresh on the game threads. I look forward to following what happens this winter and the start of play next season. Even though the way we’re going out this year hurts more than 2010, I really enjoyed the season and l am excited about the next. Though I’d rather watch some games, an additional 3+ hours in the day isn’t going to be that bad.
Back in the ’70s, Bob Howsam hired a no-name to manage a veteran team that had trouble getting over the hump in the playoffs.
Sparky Anderson.
We’re not in the 1970′s and both Bob Howsam and Sparky Anderson are dead. The team’s priorities have changed, as have what they look for in a manager. This is a team that carried Miguel Cairo all year to provide a veteran presence, and traded for Scott Rolen to add a veteran to the lineup.
The Reds have hired lots of other no-names to manage the team. They include Jerry Narron, Bob Boone, and Dave Miley. They had a losing record every year under each of those guys, but have finished in first place in two of the past three years under Dusty Baker.
The only problem with that analysis is that the teams Narron, Boone and Miley coached weren’t the same teams that Dusty has been handed by Walt Jocketty. Not even remotely close. Not in talent. Not in temperament. I’m not saying any of the three were good managers, just that your measuring stick is missing a few inches.
@redsfanman: Manny Acta
@Steve Mancuso:
Well said.
@Sultan of Swaff: SOS, no. He was hired a team who had never BEEN to the playoffs.
He got them there. Three times before they won anything.
They wanted to get rid of Sparky too, after 1973 and 1974. (Because he could not win it all)
So, are you saying they should keep Dusty?
The future of this team is bright. The starting rotation looks good- Cueto, Latos, Arroyo and Bailey. Leake- I am not sure if he can be more matured by next year. If he can, it will be a great asset to this team. The bullpen- Mr. Arredondo stinks and needs to go. Broxton seems to have bad luck and did not have good helped from his friends, he is a good asset. Rolen,Cairo can retire and take Stubbs and Valdez with them. Mr. Mesaroco so far is a bust, I hope they offer the contract to Dioner (S hitter). Too bad they trade Grandal a c with S hitter away.Get a better lead off and keep Ludwick for more 3 years. As for as Baker and Jacoby and Berry- I hope they won’t bring thesedudes back, at least 10-12 games to the opponents. Uncle Walt needs to fix some holes- lead off, bench players and a CF because Stubbs can’t hit the ball with a 2 by 4 board. Well they have a good future and a 2 bats and one more pither away and one manager who can manage by the book and alos by the GUT.
If the Reds arewant to win, they need to find a new manager
As long as Bob C. likes Dusty, he isn’t going anywhere. This isn’t a Walt call, as the owner Bob will determine if Dusty is back if Dusty wishes to return. I think Walt will “fight” with Bob on length of deal, but Dusty and his coaches are not going anywhere this offseason.
i’d gladly take dusty back if he promised just 2 things: let chapman start and stack the top of the lineup with high OBP guys.
Maddon did sign a 3/$6 million deal with the Rays in the offseason. That puts him about middle of the pack in terms of manager compensation. In comparison Dusty makes 3.5 million a year.
I suppose I forgot about having to compensate the Rays as well. But Joe would have to be interested if the Reds offered him Scioscia money.
Again this was just for fun. No way Maddon is leaving TB and no way Dusty isn’t back in Cincinnati in 2013.
I’ve seen a few mentions of Francona. I’d say the 2011 Red Sox collapse was far worse than our 2012 playoff collapse.
LaRussa gets tossed around a lot too. He had four playoff appearances with the Cards before winning a pennant, and six before winning a World Series. By some of the standards being expressed on here, he should have been fired before the 2006 world series.
I say Bruce Bochy should be the Reds manager.
Good god, no, I’d take Baker.
Bring back Pete Rose or Lou Pinella.
I like Barry Larkin, but don’t see him as a Dusty replacement. In my opinion “stars” don’t make good managers. The game either came easily to them or they had whatever make-up it requires to excel. The Reds need someone who had to fight and claw their way just to make a roster through effort, study, or force of will. Hannigan is managerial material (someday).
I also agree with the poster who mentioned that we don’t know who that person is—he’s not on the list of retreads that we’d come up with. Walt knows though.
I don’t see why you’d make Larkin the manager…with zero experience. Then again, I didn’t understand the hiring of Matheny, either.
I’m in the minority about Hanigan. I mean, who knows how he’d do, but I’d bet he’d be a small ball manager. I don’t know, maybe he’d value OBP since he’s good at it…?
I don’t want Dusty back either. But I also am realistic enough to know that management would never take that leap. So really all we can hope to happen is that Jocketty takes the bad options away from Dusty so he can’t play with them — namely Stubbs, Rolen, Arredondo, Cairo, Valdez and Leake — and upgrades those positions. (Hard to believe the Reds made it as far as they did with more than 20 percent of the team being dead weight and getting as much playing time as they did.) Dusty will not change. He will lean on tottering veterans until the team crumbles. So it’s up to Walt to change that. I would suggest Walt start the trading and maneuvering now. Maybe if Dusty saw that he was going to HAVE to play Todd Frazier full time, work with up-and-coming rookies like Gregorius and Cingrani, without the benefit of washed up veterans, he might freak out and retire. We can only hope. This team is now veteran-laden. If it still needs the “leadership” of the Rolens and Cairos, then it’s not going anywhere anyway. So it’s up to Big Walt now. If you see the same team show up for Opening Day next year, it’s all on Walt, not Dusty.
I’ve heard Aaron Boone’s name mentioned as a potential candidate for it within the past year.
You want a managerial choice…how about A HOF 2nd basemen…and its not Joe Morgan….He has managerial experience and I bet would take the job…
Why all the hate on Leake?
Wow, I was really cheering for washington just now. WLB’s down to their last strike and and they rip off four runs to come from behind.
The Cardnials were down 6-0 they came back and got hits with RISP The Reds were down 6-0 and they tried to come back and did not get hits with RISP.
Two years in a row the Cards season should have ended but the defensive player did not make the play. I’ve never seen a luckier team in my entire life.
Descalso’s hit was a rocket off the bat. I don’t fault Desmond for not making that play–there was no error.
Also, for as much as you complain about the Cardinals being lucky, you seem to forget the times they get unlucky breaks, such as bases loaded, no outs and they score one run or less. At some point you have to give them credit for grinding out their at bats. From my view that looks like the main thing they do differently from the Reds.
I’m not sure how not scoring a run is unlucky. Anyways, in my opinion, that was a play that almost any major league SS should have made. Desmond is a butcher out there, he also butchered a play earlier in the game.
I’ve always said that the Cards were force, don’t get me wrong. People here for some reason don’t recognize it. Oh, their bullpen is bad, people say. I corrected them, and it’s obvious now, their pen is probably better than the Reds at this moment, had the Reds won their series.
Still, they get all the breaks; technically, Freese swung and struck out on his “check” swing.
In the vast majority of the cases (I think it’s over 85%) in which the bases are loaded with no one out, the team batting will score at least one run. They hit an infield pop-up and a comebacker to the pitcher.
I think people on here are very eager to attribute luck to the Cards when things go their way, but they fail to take notice of times when they have horrible luck on batted balls, or they are plagued by injuries to Craig, Berkman, Furcal, Carpenter, and Garcia (other than Votto, the Reds were 100% healthy the whole season).
One of my favorite sayings (I think from Jefferson) is “The harder I work, the luckier I get.” I’m not trying to defend the Cardinals on this blog, but I do respect their ability to grind and work every at-bat, which they deserve some credit for. When you do that EVERY SINGLE TIME the way they do, you are bound to get a call your way on a borderline pitch or a checked swing. They also see their fair share of bad strike calls, such as in Game 4 (several called strikes a good 6 inches off the plate).
@Abel: The Cardinals were down to their last strike twice, with both Molina and Freese up. Storen was afraid to go after either of them from there. Walking both of them not the way to go, he had to challenge one of them, there was a much higher chance of a single from Descalso than a HR from one of them.
Anyway, credit to the Cardinals – big hits in the 9th from Beltran, who was a monster the whole game, Descalso and Kozma. Cardinals vs. Giants will be interesting.
The Reds came within one Pagan diving catch, one missed Affeldt hanger by Ludwick, one amazing AB from Bruce that ended poorly, etc from pulling off their own historic comeback. Yet the Reds are the chokers (and in some ways rightfully so). The next day the Cardinals get 4 RBIs in the 9th from Descalso and Kozma, and they are all THE HEART.
Makes me sick.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: What’s the opposite of a curse ? Whatever it is, that’s what they have in the postseason.
I’m pretty sure they sold their soul to the devil. It really makes sense if you think about it.
What happens when they face the Yankees? Devil owns both of them.
The biggest diffrence between the cards and Reds the Cards hitters take pitches, the Reds hitters outside of JV dont.
Descalso was a terrible hitter this season, by any measure. Now in the postseason, he’s a monster.
@Larry1980: Yep they work the count. I criticized Storen above, but he threw sliders just off the plate to both Molina and Freese that they laid off of. How many Reds RHed hitters would have laid off those pitches ?
You need some luck and breaks to win, the bottom line the Cardnials take advantage of the chances they get the Reds dont. The Cardnials are the better team of the two.
@pinson343: Joey Votto. maybee Jay Bruce.
Larry1980: I was asking for a RHed Reds batter who would have taken those sliders from Storen. Maybe Ryan Hanigan, but no on with pop.
Storen is pathetic. Is he really that scared to throw a strike?
Today also shows why I’d rather have Mat Latos than Gio Gonzalez. That was a pathetic performance by Gonzalez staked to a 6-0 lead. The man is wild. Yes, Latos gave up 6 runs, but long term, I want the guy who throws strikes. Latos also didn’t have a lead of 6 runs. Things would have surely been different.
Hank’s teammate: Apparently. As I said above: “The Cardinals were down to their last strike twice, with both Molina and Freese up. Storen was afraid to go after either of them from there. Walking both of them not the way to go, he had to challenge one of them, there was a much higher chance of a single from Descalso than a HR from one of them.”
Detroit, 5th in payroll. Yankees, 1st in payroll. Giants 8th in payroll. Cardinals, 9th in payroll. Money is king in Major League Baseball. Never let anyone tell you otherwise. Only the Rangers spent more and got kicked out earlier (obviously other teams like the Phillies and Red Sox need not apply, seeing as they know they can spend to kingdom come and suffer little consequence).
This is the time of year I’m frustrated about baseball. In October when the bad guys advance.
I haven’t posted my thoughts on here or anywhere else, partially because I was stunned, partially because I didn’t know how to put it into words. Watching the Cards-Nats game tonight finally allowed me to think.
This whole situation is beyond not fair, its just plain not right. I don’t know how anyone can feel OK about what has happened the past 4 days.
Dusty Baker’s comment after the game couldn’t have been more spot on for this city ‘…but, sometimes you just get tired of disappointments.’
If somehow we end up reaching the promised land, I can only hope going through this makes it that much sweeter, it just that it seems so damned far away right now. Despite being punched in the gut and kicked in the nuts again and again, I will still keep buying in, sign me up for another one, boys. My stomach is built of steel at this point.
@yoobee: Agree with your main points. But Desmond should at least have been able to knock the ball down and prevent the tying run from scoring, he lost his balance. Not that it mattered anyway, with Kozma’s hit.
Agree. His situational awareness should have been to keep the ball on the infield.
if the Cardnials win the WS again, its goona be very difficult to rip on them. lets hope the Giants can win it.
Larry1980: I’ll be rooting for the Tigers and the Giants. If the Yankees and Cardinals meet in the WS, it will be the team that traditionally never loses the big game vs. the team that recently never loses the big game.
Does anyone really think anyone other than the Cardinals will win the World Series?
@hokieneer: The Reds were up 2-0 in the series.
@pinson343: Freese could just as easily as not have been rung up to end the game on the “checked” swing at 2/2. Had it been the 3/2 pitch he probably would have. It just seems to be a quirk of many umps’ philosophy and personality that they will give the batter the break when it call won’t result in a walk but go the pitcher’s way when it will. Just ask Ryan Hanigan…..
@BearcatNation: To be a baseball fan, you need a stomach of steel. The Phils and Giants tortured their fans for years before their WS wins. The Cardinals had great teams in 2004 and 2005, more talented than their current team. In 2004 they won 105 games in the regular season and got swept by the Red Sox in the WS. In 2005 they won 100 games and lost the NLCS to the Astros in 6.
Anyway, the one thing the above teams have in common is years of consistent winning before reaching the promised land. The Reds have had 2 winning seasons since 2000.
Meant “no one with pop.”
Unless I mellow out some, I probably won’t even watch or follow much more baseball this year. Too hard to watch knowing that much of the season the Reds played better than what we will be seeing…..
I’m done for sure, now. I will not be watching any more baseball and supporting MLB’s slow creep towards the NHL-ification of the postseason.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: The Cardinals’ bullpen was their Achilles heel for most of 2011 and most of this season. They were knocked out of the NL Central race both seasons due to their bullpen. If not, then what ?
In 2011 they helped themselves at the trade deadline. This year they picked up Mujica at the deadline and brought up Kelly and Rosenthal. They were relying on Marc Rzepczynski and Fernando Salas for most of this season, you won’t see much of them in the postseason.
That was my point—people said that the Reds should face the Cards because the Reds are better, etc, etc. The main reason given was the Cards pen stinks–except it does not. I’d rather have their pen. People aren’t paying attention to the pen they have now.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: I think the AL team (either the Yankees or the Tigers) will beat the Cardinals, if they make it to the WS.
Are you kidding me? I will happily eat these words, but: our personal Hell of a Postseason will end, appropriately, with The St. Louis Cardinals winning the World Series, again. Probably in walk off fashion. Probably against the New York Yankees. You read it here first, but you know you’ve all been thinking it long before.
Just think. We could be watching an NLCS between a 97-win team that ran away with the NL Central and the team they soundly beat for the division. The Reds proved over 162 games they were better overall than the Cardinals, but because of the fluky MLB playoff setup, they could’ve been playing them AGAIN. After stomping them for the NL Central title, that’s not enough.
As a fan who remembers the pre-Wild Card MLB, I see stuff like that and I wonder why winning a division means a thing.
I could not agree more. In my mind the current format gives an additional advantage to large-payroll teams, as they can “fix” their team midseason, get a wildcard, and then have a good team in October.
I agree that I don’t like the current playoff format. I would prefer two divisions in each league with just the CS and WS. The team with the best record during the regular season has only one the WS twice in the last 14 years, which is odd. The postseason is all about who gets hot at the right time, and it almost always has been this way. The Reds benefited from this in 1990.
The Reds did so poorly offensively this year (after such a strong year in 2011) and were somehow still able to win the division. If you compare the expected win-loss record of the Reds and Cardinals based on runs scored and runs allowed, the Cardinals should have won the division by three games. I think if we are attributing the Cardinals season to luck, it’s just as fair to attribute the Reds division win to luck, because very few teams outperform their expected win-loss record by as much as the Reds, combined with such an underperformance by the 2nd place team.
And as far as stomping the Cardinals, the Reds lost the regular season series against them.
@BearcatNation:
Bearcat, us older fans can testify to the agony of watching and waiting for the Big Red machine to finally win a WS. Lost the series in ’70 and ’72. Lost the NLCS in ’73. Missed the playoffs in ’74 with 98 wins. All before back to back titles in ’75 and ’76.
I believe this version of the Reds can be good enough to win another title for the team. Just hope we don’t have to wait as long.
Don’t know if anyone is even following this thread at this point, but I’d like to throw in two observations about the Dusty Baker managerial question.
First, if the Reds replace Dusty, what happens to his coaching staff? I wouldn’t be surprised if Bryan Price, Chris Speier, Billy Hatcher, and Mark Berry stayed to work under Larkin (though I hope for many reasons they would replace Brook Jacoby). But I would be shocked if those guys stayed to play under Tony LaRussa. I think Bryan Price is a big key to the success of this team looking back to 2012, and looking ahead for years to come. For me, the insult of having TLR at the helm combined with the implications to the win-loss totals of losing Bryan Price would be devastating. I’m not saying the Reds have to keep Dusty (pretty sure they will), but I am saying PLEASE no TLR.
Second, I’ve been in Atlanta since the wire to wire season of 1990, followed by the Braves worst to first year of 1991. Take a moment please to count up the Braves postseason appearances from 1991 on. The math isn’t hard – figure out the number of years from 1991 to 2005 and subtract one for the lost year of 1994. That’s 14 straight titles. Now calculate the number of World Series rings. That won’t take long either. One. Does that make Bobby Cox a poor manager? Would you have wanted to replace him during that stretch? I know he had the luxury of some amazing pitching staffs, and I’m not the biggest Bobby Cox fan (mostly because it was annoying watching all that winning here when the Reds were struggling), but in my opinion it’s just proof that the playoffs are a bit of a crapshoot. Give me the guy who gets the team TO the playoffs every year. The way to win the World Series is to make the playoffs. Then roll those dice. And I’m also willing to bet that Dusty Baker, his coaching staff, and the front office will be going over the last few days very carefully. I suspect there will be more urgency moving forward when the Reds are in the postseason, just as there was (eventually) better decision making with lineups (e.g. Stubbs in the 8 hole) and pitching decisions (e.g. Marshall in earlier innings) toward the end of this season. Dusty Baker will be back. And this team will be in the playoffs again. Hopefully again and again and again. I for one can’t wait.
I know people are throwing around collapse, but it just doesn’t feel like that to me. They got beat, but it just doesn’t look like they took defeat out of the jaws of victory. The only loss of the 3 I got any angst about is game 3, but they couldn’t get many hits and even the pressure points was a base running blunder in the first inning and a bobbled ball on a tricky hit. It just wasn’t that epic. the loss feels bad, but not really cruel to me. What’s cruel is the freaking Cardinals keep winning. Yankees in 2004 to the Red Sox, that’s a collapse. Texas in the World Series last year, that’s a collapse.
SF/Cincy was a really matched series and the Reds lost their best pitcher 8 pitches in and didn’t have a 2 time Cy Young Winner to bring out of the bullpen.
The 5 game series is also so brief, it’s easy to get beat.
earl: win two on the road then come home for three and can’t finish the deal? That’s a collapse. Add to the mix St. Louis getting the last Wild Card then beating ATL + the NATS without Pujols and a new Manager! Dude, they’re laughing at us. Haven’t we been patient long enough with Dusty? Do you really want two or maybe three more years of Baker? I don’t.
They are going to be laughing at the Reds for years, too, because they have better players and are a better organization. Their 7th best starter is Joe Kelly. The Reds 6th best starter is Todd Redmond. They have injuries everywhere and it just doesn’t seem to matter. They also can spend a lot more money. They have a better farm system, too. Yes, it’s frustrating.
I’ve been throwing something around in my head that I’ve decided to toss out here and see if anybody else has had similar thoughts.
Once it was apparent that JoeyV had no power in his legs, was it perhaps the Reds biggest mistake to go on and use him in a business as usual sense?
Might Votto have been more of positive factor versus the Giants had he been held out and spotted into situations where a single (or walk or SAC fly) would have fit the bill? Might Frazier as he seems able to do, with multiple ABs per game felt the moment and gone on one of his runs?
While we play and replay down to minutia the tactical situations of the series, perhaps this strategic decision might have been the biggest of all….
Yes. I’d been saying for a couple weeks that the Reds should have had Votto bat first in the lineup and moved Bruce to #3. I would chalk Votto’s use up to the general conservatism that Dusty Baker employs when it comes to (a) lineups, (b) roles, (c) respect for players. Votto had a .500 OBP so he needed to be playing. But with no threat of hitting for power, he’d have been better suited in situations where his strengths would be maximized.
I had a thought yesterday that maybe Baker should have approached the final game like this: My best three pitchers on the staff — and it really isn’t close — are (1) Chapman, (2) Marshall and (3) Broxton. So start from the back of the game. Have Chapman pitch the 9th and 8th. Have Broxton pitch the 7th. Have Marshall pitch the 5th and 6th. Ask Mat Latos to get through the first four innings, which he did, giving up zero runs.
Part of the problem with managing in a low-scoring (at the time) postseason game the way you manage your starters in the regular season is that leaving the SP in until they get in trouble means that the SP will inevitably get in trouble. Baker said in game four he didn’t want to take Leake out after the fourth inning because “he was really dealing” in the third and fourth. See, that’s the recipe for disaster in the postseason because you leave the starters in until trouble. A manager needs to operate more aggressively with their relief pitchers in a short series.
I don’t think that it’s necessarily good to ahead of time decide Latos is only throwing 4 innings. For example, what if Bailey pitched his game 3 in game 5? You wouldn’t want to limit him to 4 innings.
But otherwise I agree in that once you get to the 5th inning, it should be Marshall (or Broxton) time, whoever is going first, in that at the first hint of trouble, the guy’s throwing. Baker saved his relievers for game 5 but then didn’t leverage it.
@Steve Mancuso: On pitching in the NLDS… I thought beforehand they should have taken a really long look at making game 4 a bullpen day versus starting Leake (and maybe they did and decided against it). It also occurred to me that Cingrani as an unknown throwing hard in the shadows could probably have navigated a turn through the Giants and could have been part of the mix in a bullpen day versus activating Leake.
In retrospect, sure.
One thing that may fall out of all this is that Leake’s career as a Red is over. I think he’s fine as the #5 starter, and he’s cheap, but given that Latos, Arroyo, and Cueto are back next year, and Bailey seems likely to be also, pitching Leake means that Cingrani is out of the rotation. Maybe he’ll need AAA time, I suppose so…but it seems like he’ll be ready at some point, and I just don’t know what role Leake has at that point. I see zero improvement from Leake year over year, and it’s not like he’s immature on the mound. He’s quite mature, I think. He’s just not very good, and I don’t see where the improvement comes from. A new pitch maybe?
The most damning thing about Leake is that he just cannot be put out there in a postseason game (barring an emergency like they had, of course). I think most people felt that way all year. Leake provides all-important rotation depth, but that’s really about it.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: Listening to (reading) Dusty’s comments about how Latos was “dealing” and everything happened so fast validates the criticism that he managed the game like it was one of 162 and not the 1 of 1 it was. And I am generally a Baker supporter……
@Hank Aarons Teammate: Actually I think I went totally over the top and posted here prior to game 4 that they should activate Cingrani and send him out to pitch at the start in the shadows. That was probably a but much given his age and lack of experience but no reason not to start LeCure or Marshall and come with Cingrani second and the other of the previous two third.
I suspect that the Reds upcoming class of starters is still far enough away that they may have to live wit Leake in 2013 unless Walt can pull off one of his surprise signings or trades.
Arroyo and Leake seem to have a mentoring relationship. Leake needs to spend the off season and spring picking Arroyo’s brain about the adjustments he made (cutter etc) which enabled him to pitch effectively versus LH hitters this year as it was lefties that nailed him every time versus the Giants.