2012 Post-season / Homer Bailey

NLDS – Getting Ready for Game 3

=====Game 2 Review=====
Waiting for the hopeful conclusion of the NLDS Reds-Giants series tonight, there’s a number of noteworthy articles around the interwebs on Bronson Arroyo’s masterful performance on Sunday:

– Fangraphs says that the Giants got Arroyo’d. The article provides several still images showing his varying arm angles and a pitch speed table showing that Arroyo hit every speed on the gun from 69 to 90 at least once.

– ESPN Stats and Info focused on Arroyo’s pitch location. Arroyo threw 62.6% of his pitches on the outer third of the plate or away. Giants hitters were 0-for-15 in at-bats ending with a pitch in that location.

ESPN’s SweetSpot compared Arroyo’s approach and results to left-handed batters in 2012 to 2011.

=====Game 3 Preview=====
Of course, there’s the game tonight, too! There’s the daily statistical game preview from baseball-reference and a traditional narrative preview from ESPN.

“I had this one kid give me a sweatshirt that said, `The Year of the 12,” said manager Dusty Baker, who wears the uniform number. “He gave it to me in spring training. I believe in that. I’m only going to see one `12 while I’m living. It’s a special year. I just feel that it’s our year.”

=====Homer Bailey=====
Over his last 7 starts, Homer Bailey has a 1.85 ERA with a 0.74 WHIP, .463 opponent OPS, 1.7 BB/9, 8.9 K/9, & 0.7 HR/9. This includes 3 starts at GABP. Bailey faced the Giants once this year, back on April 26th in GABP against tonight’s starter, Ryan Vogelsong. Bailey was in line for the win after tossing 6.1 IP and allowing 3 runs (2 earned) on 7 hits and 2 walks, while striking out 6. He threw just 86 pitches, 59 for strikes. It was Sean Marshall’s first blown save of the season, back when he was still the closer, as he allowed a 3-run homerun in the 9th inning to Angel Pagan.

=====Reds Media Day=====
There are a handful of videos from the Reds media day yesterday at GABP. Stay hungry my friends:

36 thoughts on “NLDS – Getting Ready for Game 3

  1. It should be a nice evening weather-wise for a good baseball game. Lets get the brooms out tonight and sweep those Giants back to the left coast. I hope the Reds fans tonight sound like the O’s fans did last night. Loud, loud, and loud.

    • It was Sean Marshall’s first blown save of the season, back when he was still the closer, as he allowed a 3-run homerun in the 9th inning to Angel Pagan.

      Are there any on here still upset about Marshall being taken out of the close role? I think it’s pretty safe to say had that not happened, we wouldn’t be where we are now.

      It’s pretty cool to think that right now, basically everyone is doing what they should. Phillips is leading off. Cozart is hitting second. Hanigan is NOT hitting 8th any more, and Stubbs has been moved down in the order. Ludwick is hitting cleanup. Chapman’s closing, Broxton and Marshall are setting up, the rotation is rested and locked in, Baker has suddenly become flawless in his decision making, etc.

      Basically, to borrow a phrase, God’s in his heaven, all’s is right with the world.

      Let’s sweep those Giants and keep rolling. The Reds potentially have 17 games left, and they only need to win 9 of them.

      • Are there any on here still upset about Marshall being taken out of the close role? I think it’s pretty safe to say had that not happened, we wouldn’t be where we are now.

        It’s pretty cool to think that right now, basically everyone is doing what they should. Phillips is leading off. Cozart is hitting second. Hanigan is NOT hitting 8th any more, and Stubbs has been moved down in the order. Ludwick is hitting cleanup. Chapman’s closing, Broxton and Marshall are setting up, the rotation is rested and locked in, Baker has suddenly become flawless in his decision making, etc.

        Basically, to borrow a phrase, God’s in his heaven, all’s is right with the world.

        Let’s sweep those Giants and keep rolling. The Reds potentially have 17 games left, and they only need to win 9 of them.

        Yeah, without swapping Marshall and Chapman, the Reds would have won 10 fewer games and the Cards would have won the division.

        • Yeah, without swapping Marshall and Chapman, the Reds would have won 10 fewer games and the Cards would have won the division.

          There is no way of knowing what would have happen…

      • Are there any on here still upset about Marshall being taken out of the close role? I think it’s pretty safe to say had that not happened, we wouldn’t be where we are now.

        Marshall would have blown 10 games? I don’t think that’s safe to say. In fact I’d say it would have been highly unlikely.

  2. Homer Bailey sure has come a long way since the end of last year. I hope he pitches well and can get the win tonight. He certainly deserves it. He has had that breakout year we’ve been waiting for. I thought Bailey benefited the most from the Latos trade. Latos and his “attitude”, I think, rubbed off on Bailey some throughout the year. Just a side benefit from that Latos trade that not many people mention. C’mon Homer, give us a 7 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, and 9 K’s type of game tonight to wrap up this NLDS series. SWEEP!!!!!!!

  3. Garcia from the Cardinals is likely out for the season after yesterday’s game. While it won’t affect them in this series, it definitely undermines their chances if they move on.

    I can hear the whining already.

    • Garcia from the Cardinals is likely out for the season after yesterday’s game.While it won’t affect them in this series, it definitely undermines their chances if they move on.

      I can hear the whining already.

      Their fan base and players are already throwing him under the bus, for daring to make a start yesterday, knowing about his shoulder. Some (in the clubhouse) are actually questioning if he’s really hurt. Classiest team and fan base in baseball. They’ll chew off their own leg.

      • Their fan base and players are already throwing him under the bus, for daring to make a start yesterday, knowing about his shoulder. Some (in the clubhouse) are actually questioning if he’s really hurt. Classiest team and fan base in baseball. They’ll chew off their own leg.

        Hope Garcia remembers this love and adoration when he hits free agency in 2 years.

  4. I feel pretty good about the game tonight. I know this year that Bronson has been better at home than away and the opposite for Homer, but statistically it should be the opposite since Bronson is a fly-ball pitcher and Homer is a ground-ball pitcher and Bronson already did his part to buck this year’s trend.

    I think when Homer gets in trouble at home he simply makes a single mistake and then is harder on himself since he’s in front of the home crowd so things just escalate. Although I think he has matured quite a bit over the season so I think we’ll see less of that the more he pitches. Hopefully we won’t have to even worry about that tonight as the entire team seems to be locked in.

  5. “It was Sean Marshall’s first blown save of the season, back when he was still the closer, as he allowed a 3-run homerun in the 9th inning to Angel Pagan.”

    I was at that game and I’ll be at tonight’s. Please don’t let it happen again.

  6. My question is how do you approach tonight’s game? Do you go all in and try to finish it out tonight and keep Homer on a short string, or do you let him go? Also if Cueto can’t go tomorrow, what is our options?

  7. I think Marshall would have handled the job just fine over the course of the season. I think there are a lot of possibility that tree branch from there that would determine how the Reds season might have went. Would they have kept Chapman in a setup role or moved him to the rotation? In place of whom? Then, what would the bullpen look like with just 1 dominant LH relievers instead of two.

    From the beginning of June to the end of the season, Marshall pitched 43.2 innings with 50 strikeouts and a 1.85 ERA. He hasn’t allowed an earned run since August 26th, and batters are hitting just .122 off him in those last 15 games.

    • I think Marshall would have handled the job just fine over the course of the season. I think there are a lot of possibility that tree branch from there that would determine how the Reds season might have went. Would they have kept Chapman in a setup role or moved him to the rotation? In place of whom? Then, what would the bullpen look like with just 1 dominant LH relievers instead of two.

      From the beginning of June to the end of the season, Marshall pitched 43.2 innings with 50 strikeouts and a 1.85 ERA. He hasn’t allowed an earned run since August 26th, and batters are hitting just .122 off him in those last 15 games.

      Yeah, it’s interesting to think what would have happened had Marshall succeeded in the closer role. As it stands, he didn’t get the job done but has excelled (with a few bad patches here and there) as a setup man while Chapman put up one of the most dominating seasons as a closer in the history of the game.

      There is no telling if Marshall would have put up the same numbers he did this season if he had been allowed to continue as the closer, but I think we can all agree he would not have been as good as Chapman has been.

      And as you touched on, there is no telling what kind of ripple effect would have occurred if Marshall had remained the closer. People like to think it’s a simple as swapping one player’s stats for another’s, but it doesn’t work like that. Who knows who would be in what role now or what kind of numbers they would have put up in that role.

      As I said before, I think everyone on the team is in the role they should be in. This team won the most games of any Reds’ team since 1976 in no small part because of their dominate bullpen. I want Chapman to start too, but this was not the season for it. Next year, we’ll see. But I think it’s safe to say we’ll never see Marshall in the full time closer role again.

    • I think Marshall would have handled the job just fine over the course of the season. I think there are a lot of possibility that tree branch from there that would determine how the Reds season might have went. Would they have kept Chapman in a setup role or moved him to the rotation? In place of whom? Then, what would the bullpen look like with just 1 dominant LH relievers instead of two. From the beginning of June to the end of the season, Marshall pitched 43.2 innings with 50 strikeouts and a 1.85 ERA. He hasn’t allowed an earned run since August 26th, and batters are hitting just .122 off him in those last 15 games.

      Would of, could of , should ofs.
      What would have happened if Madson never blew his elbow out?? Chapman was the best starter during spring training. Things might have been completely different in 2012. Maybe not so much for the better either. Things worked out just right this year so far. Need 9 more wins. One in the NLDS, 4 in the NLCS, and 4 in the WS. Lets make it 8 after tonight. I hear some champagne cooling on ice for tonight.

  8. There’s a decent argument that the Reds would have gotten more value out of Chapman as the “7th/8th inning high leverage guy” with Marshall as the closer than Chapman as the “pure 9th inning/only pitch in save situations” guy. Of course, it worked out fine. I’m not complaining.

    • There’s a decent argument that the Reds would have gotten more value out of Chapman as the “7th/8th inning high leverage guy” with Marshall as the closer than Chapman as the “pure 9th inning/only pitch in save situations” guy. Of course, it worked out fine. I’m not complaining.

      Yeah, we can speculate, but we have no way of knowing. I can say I would not have traded this season the Reds just had for anything. Everyone finished (relatively) healthy, they won a ton of games and the division, and now they are about to roll to a playoff series sweep. (fingers crossed)

      We really could not have asked for the season to have gone much better than it did.

  9. I guess to answer my own question, yes, it seems like quite a few people are still upset about Marshall being removed from the closer role, even though we had a amazing season with the best bullpen in the game.

    Guess there’s just no pleasing some people.

      • Who is “upset”? Sounds like hyperbole to me.

        You bet it was. :D

        This site seems to love hyperbole so I was just playing along. Kudos for picking up on it.

    • I guess to answer my own question, yes, it seems like quite a few people are still upset about Marshall being removed from the closer role, even though we had a amazing season with the best bullpen in the game.

      Guess there’s just no pleasing some people.

      Upset? No, amused that someone would think that a swap of a setup man and a closer would result in a 10 game difference. If they were both going to stay in the bullpen, the way it is now is the way it should be. But your claim is laughable on its face.

      As an aside, Chapman’s save percentage is roughly in line with many NL closers? It’s not like by that metric he did all that well. Not that I personally believe in that metric, but it shows how funny the 10 game difference part is.

      Weren’t you also the guy who kept saying how awful Marshall was? And how he’s not to be trusted? So now he’s excelled as a late inning setup man?

  10. “But I think it’s safe to say we’ll never see Marshall in the full time closer role again” True dat.

    Dusty wants heat at the end of the bullpen. I think it’s safe to say that if Marshall had been throwing 99mph with the success rate he was having his leash would have been much longer.

    • “But I think it’s safe to say we’ll never see Marshall in the full time closer role again”True dat.

      Dusty wants heat at the end of the bullpen. I think it’s safe to say that if Marshall had been throwing 99mph with the success rate he was having his leash would have been much longer.

      Probably, but things are what they are.

      I still have hope for Chapman being converted to a starter next year. There are some vibes coming from the team that this is the plan (even Dusty hinted at it) but it depends on what happens with the rest of the bullpen this offseason. It tough to mess with something that’s working so well, but it (should be) for the greater good.

  11. @CI3J: Disagreeing with a blanket statement that Marshall as closer would have ruined the season isn’t the same thing as being upset he still isn’t the closer. Disagreeing with an idea doesn’t necessarily indicate a preference for the other position either. I think your idea of “playing along” isn’t as obvious as you intend and it just comes off as provocative. Stirring a pot just to stir it, without being obvious about the fun intended is still just stirring the pot.

    • @CI3J:Disagreeing with a blanket statement that Marshall as closer would have ruined the season isn’t the same thing as being upset he still isn’t the closer. Disagreeing with an idea doesn’t necessarily indicate a preference for the other position either. I think your idea of “playing along” isn’t as obvious as you intend and it just comes off as provocative. Stirring a pot just to stir it, without being obvious about the fun intended is still just stirring the pot.

      I didn’t say Marshall at closer would have ruined the season; that hyperbole is too extreme even for me.

      But in seriousness, I do think things lined up perfectly this season they way they were. I wouldn’t have changed a thing about the way the season went and the way it worked out.

      Having Chapman as closer over Marshall was one of those things and, like I said earlier, there is no telling what kind of ripple effect would have happened had Marshall remained closer. Maybe he wouldn’t have blown 10 games, but maybe he would have had 10 less save chances if the rest of the bullpen couldn’t hold leads since they would have lost Marshall’s setup abilities. Marshall (mostly) did well at setup, and it’s obvious that is the perfect role for him. Closing is not.

      Basically what I’m saying is everything fell into place and who knows if that would have been the case if that one little tweak (Chapman for Marshall at closer) hadn’t been made.

      As things stand, they worked out perfectly.

  12. Didn’t see the lineup posted yet.

    No surprises.

    Phillips
    Cozart
    Votto
    Ludwick
    Bruce
    Rolen
    Hanigan
    Stubbs
    Bailey

  13. Glad to see Todd Frazier is getting plenty of rest for the the NLCS and WS…wouldn’t want to over play him in the NLDS…

  14. At least for this season, moving Chapman to the closer role was a great move. I think Marshall was doing fine, but if Chapman wasn’t going to start this year, he may as well be the closer. That being said, let’s sweep the Giants tonight!

  15. I think the thing to keep in mind is that the decisions that were made this year with regards to Chapman (and Marshall, to a much lesser extent) will have repercussions next year. If this season ends in a WS title, we’ll all be craaazy happy with the results – heck, at this point I’ll be craaazy happy regardless. It’s been a great Summer!

    But things don’t happen in a 2012 vacuum.

  16. Cueto with a mild oblique strain. Not good.
    I’m guessing we would not see him until the World Series.

    The question is, can they get to the World Series without him?

  17. Of course they can get to the world series without him. The best team versus the worst team has a pretty small edge in any single game. It hurts certainly, and small edges make a big difference in the playoffs, but the Reds still have good odds in a best of 7 series.

  18. With the news on Cueto, I think Dusty has to manage today like it was a game 5 of this series. You need to attack from the start and not be afraid to go to the bullpen early if needed. A loss today means huge questions as to whom pitches in Game 4 which is not what we need.

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