2012 Post-season / 2012 Reds / Game Thread

NLDS Game Three Thread: Reds vs. Giants

The mighty Redlegs return to action tonight with a commanding 2-0 lead in the best-of-5 National League Division Series. Cincinnati can clinch a spot in the NLCS with a victory tonight.

Mr. No-No, Homer Bailey, will take the mound for the Reds. As Greg noted earlier today:

Over his last 7 starts, Homer Bailey has a 1.85 ERA with a 0.74 WHIP, .463 opponent OPS, 1.7 BB/9, 8.9 K/9, & 0.7 HR/9. This includes 3 starts at GABP. Bailey faced the Giants once this year, back on April 26th in GABP against tonight’s starter, Ryan Vogelsong. Bailey was in line for the win after tossing 6.1 IP and allowing 3 runs (2 earned) on 7 hits and 2 walks, while striking out 6. He threw just 86 pitches, 59 for strikes. It was Sean Marshall’s first blown save of the season, back when he was still the closer, as he allowed a 3-run homerun in the 9th inning to Angel Pagan.

The Giants will counter with Ryan Vogelsong, a 34-year old right-hander who finished up the season with a 14-9 record and a 3.37 ERA. In the second half of the season, however, Vogelsong’s ERA is 4.78.

Here’s your game preview. Go Redlegs.

318 thoughts on “NLDS Game Three Thread: Reds vs. Giants

  1. The offense was pathetic tonight, which has become par for the course when Homer pitches. Seems like he never gets any run support. ONE hit after the 1st inning. Just pathetic, especially considering who they were facing tonight.

    I have a bad feeling about things now. They had Giants on the ground, foot on the throat, and let them back up. San Fran may be down 2-1, but they have all the momentum in the world, knowing they just stole a game they had no business winning.

  2. Take a chill pill peoples, it was highly unlikely the Reds would sweep the Giants. The Reds will take it tommorrow, no problem-mo. Go Reds!! Adios Amigos.

    • Take a chill pill peoples, it was highly unlikely the Reds would sweep the Giants. The Reds will take it tommorrow, no problem-mo. Go Reds!! Adios Amigos.

      Yeah, I’m not freaking out yet, it was just a tough way to lose.

  3. I hate being a Reds fan who is always waiting for the other shoe to drop. If it’s not worrying the Giants will come back with three straight wins, it’s worrying they couldn’t beat the Cardinals in the NLCS. Hell, I’m already worrying about next year. Can we just win the series so I can enjoy baseball?!

  4. This loss is on BP I am sorry that was a dumb baserunning decision on his part, all the other things that happened in the 10th would be a non-story. As to Dusty I did not think about that descision to get bochy to call his bluff and empty his bench, I agree he should have done that.

    • This loss is on BP I am sorry that was a dumb baserunning decision on his part, all the other things that happened in the 10th would be a non-story. As to Dusty I did not think about that descision to get bochy to call his bluff and empty his bench, I agree he should have done that.

      That’s exactly right. Mental errors trump physical errors, and mental errors trump managerial decisions that can go either way. I don’t like the way Phillips plays the game: I don’t like how he holds the ball for a half hour before throwing to first, I don’t like how he barehands balls he doesn’t have to. I don’t like his mental model. However, I recognize that he is a superior defender and slightly above league average hitter, which makes for a good player.

      However, today, the Reds payed the Brandon Phillips tax, not the Dusty Baker tax.

  5. I think people are being way too tough on Phillips. He was being aggressive and got a terrible bounce right back to Posey. I really don’t have a major problem with it.

    • I think people are being way too tough on Phillips. He was being aggressive and got a terrible bounce right back to Posey.I really don’t have a major problem with it.

      Nobody out. Made an out at 3rd. Not smart.

      Aggressive often means “stupid”.

      • Nobody out.Made an out at 3rd.Not smart.

        Aggressive often means “stupid”.

        Yes you never want to make the first out at third, but he got a bad break on the ball bouncing straight back. If it goes anywhere else he’s on third and people are calling it great baserunning. Dusty has no excuse.

        • Yes you never want to make the first out at third, but he got a bad break on the ball bouncing straight back. If it goes anywhere else he’s on third and people are calling it great baserunning.Dusty has no excuse.

          Honestly: say he was safe by a foot. I would have said it was a bad baserunning play.

          But that’s just my outlook. I absolutely hate making outs on the bases. I realize others disagree.

        • ……But that’s just my outlook.I absolutely hate making outs on the bases.I realize others disagree.

          I agree with you philosophically. However I don’t agree with the sentiment others have expressed that the Phillips play “cost” the Reds the game. What cost them the game were defensive miscues by two of their most reliable defenders (Hanigan and Rolen) on the Giants 30th out.

          One just cannot project the rest of an inning let alone the rest of a game by looking at what follows immediately after a play like the Phillip’s play, especially when it happens right out of the chute.

          There are just too many variables involved. The pitcher’s outlook is different; the hitters’ outlooks are different. Even if somebody follows with a HR, you can’t assume one more run would have scored because the pitching might have been different or the hitter might have been looking to do something different.

          On the other hand in extra innings, when there is a past ball that advances a runner to 3rd with already 2 outs then several pitches later the 3rd baseman boots what looks like a routine grounder allowing the run to score, that is pretty concrete.

        • I agree with you philosophically. However I don’t agree with the sentiment others have expressed that the Phillips play “cost” the Reds the game. What cost them the game were defensive miscues by two of their most reliable defenders (Hanigan and Rolen) on the Giants 30th out.

          One just cannot project the rest of an inning let alone the rest of a game by looking at what follows immediately after a play like the Phillip’s play, especially when it happens right out of the chute.

          There are just too many variables involved. The pitcher’s outlook is different; the hitters’ outlooks are different. Even if somebody follows with a HR, you can’t assume one more run would have scored because the pitching might have been different or the hitter might have been looking to do something different.

          On the other hand in extra innings, when there is a past ball that advances a runner to 3rd with already 2 outs then several pitches later the 3rd baseman boots what looks like a routine grounder allowing the run to score, that is pretty concrete.

          Fair enough. Your point is correct. Let me say it this way: the Reds’ failure to blow the game open in the 1st inning, when Vogelsong was off his game, cost them a win in regulation.

        • Fair enough.Your point is correct.Let me say it this way: the Reds’ failure to blow the game open in the 1st inning, when Vogelsong was off his game, cost them a win in regulation.

          This I agree with; and, giving away an out was a part of the failure. And actually they gave away two outs in the first. Rolen took a borderline pitch he saw all the way for strike three. It was right down the middle but perhaps a bit low but certainly not an ankle bruiser. Scott Rolen taking a pitch like that, i.e. trying to beg a walk versus looking to foul it off or put it in play says worlds about how much (little) he has left in the tank.

    • I think people are being way too tough on Phillips. He was being aggressive and got a terrible bounce right back to Posey.I really don’t have a major problem with it.

      The rule is always that you don’t make the first or the third out at 3rd base. That’s exactly what he did. You just can’t do it, unless it’s 100% that you will make it.

      • The rule is always that you don’t make the first or the third out at 3rd base. That’s exactly what he did.You just can’t do it, unless it’s 100% that you will make it.

        It was a lucky break. It wasn’t an obvious bad play. I hear what you are saying, but I’m not going to kill him for it.

  6. @AnnapolisHoosier: One of two things happened: 1) Dusty made the decision NOT to walk Arias 2) Dusty did not think to walk Arias. Either one is inexcusable. Not the best 10th inning showcase for the Reds; Hanigan whiffs on a fastball, Dusty, was well, Dusty and then Scotty botches a grounder. Glad the world saw that.

  7. If the offense doesnt wake up tomorrow then they have the task of beating Matt Cain again, and I know no Reds fan wants that. I have the unshakable feeling that Dusty is putting Leake on the mound tomorrow too… This series just got a lot more interesting than I would have liked

  8. I feel like finding a ledge after this day. This game only made it worse, as does the feeling of Doom I have after watching the offense look like the Double-A team the Reds fielded after they clinched and not knowing who the hell pitches tomorrow. If Mike Leake jogs out there, I’ll throw up in my Mr. Redlegs hat.

  9. Somehow this feels like game 5 of the 1990 NLCS. Reds could easily have won the game, Piniella was second guessed by Tim McCarver for about a half hour because he could have ended up with a pinch hitter, I believe, but instead had Jeff Reed having to hit against a lefty with bags loaded, one run down, 1 out in the 9th. Reed hit into a double play, and everyone worried that the Reds would lose games 6 and 7. They won game 6.

    There, though, they had a distinct pitching advantage, as I remember. Our game tomorrow, well, it’s not an advantage if Zito faces Leake. Probably a push.

    The Reds did little against Zito in April, and the Giants did nothing against Leake in July.

  10. And yeah, Dusty was stupid not to walk Arias, but I’d say the groundout fest that was the offense tonight is a little more to blame any time you lose on a sac fly and a ground ball.

  11. Watch the A’s lose today too—had a run in, 1st and 2nd in the first, went K/double play. You blow those early chances, you’re in trouble. They are up 1-0, but if I’m an A’s fan, I’m scared.

  12. Asking for a sweep against a successful team is a little much, but why didn’t they do it!!!

    Get em tomorrow Redlegs.

  13. I just can’t shake the feeling of how awesome it would’ve been when Chapman blew away Sandoval for the last out in the ninth of a 2-1 victory…

    Sigh.

  14. Tonight is an example of why they still have room to grow. The lineup will vanish for days on end after scoring nine runs, and they really don’t seem adept at scoring unless they hit balls out. St. Louis does it, the Giants did it tonight, which is why they have won the past two WS. I am at least hoping to see the Reds take the next step and get to the NLCS before the Dodgers take over the National League with a $300M payroll.

    • Homer Bailey just said Mike Leake is starting tomorrow.

      The way I’m looking at it, I think the Reds still have the advantage in a Latos vs Cain game 5. Of course they could lose, anyone can lose, any game.

      I really don’t like the Zito matchup for the Reds hitters. They scored 1 run off him in each of their 2 games, 6 innings pitched each time. The Reds hitters today swung at a lot of bad balls. The Giants pitchers also made some really good pitches at (in)opportune times. Zito will throw a LOT of bad balls.

      Of course, maybe Latos won’t pitch game 5 either because he’ll be too sick. What a postseason.

  15. Oh come on people, the loss is not on BP. Get a grip. 1st inning and he’s being aggressive. It was a great throw by Posey.

    Dynamite pitching on both sides. Look how the Giants scored their runs. You may not see a game like that again for a long time. How can anyone blame Dusty for a passed ball then an error by Rolen?

    My one little beef was with Bruce. After Votto and Ludwick walked, Bruce swung at the first pitch and flied out. Really? After back-to-back walks you swing at the first pitch?

    • Oh come on people, the loss is not on BP.Get a grip.1st inning and he’s being aggressive.It was a great throw by Posey.

      Dynamite pitching on both sides.Look how the Giants scored their runs.You may not see a game like that again for a long time.How can anyone blame Dusty for a passed ball then an error by Rolen?

      My one little beef was with Bruce.After Votto and Ludwick walked, Bruce swung at the first pitch and flied out.Really?After back-to-back walks you swing at the first pitch?

      Actually, yes, I don’t mind Jay Bruce swinging at the first pitch there. He’s a home run hitter. Plus Rolen’s on deck, and he isn’t exactly hitting.

      I didn’t see this AB yet, so I don’t know where the pitch was, but in general, home run hitters should be hacking the first pitch there if it’s a hitter’s pitch.

  16. Ugh…with our pitching questions in Games 4 and 5, I don’t like our chances if we pitch Latos and Bronson on 3 days rest…

  17. One ironic thing is with all the discussion of who should pitch game 2, all of the possibilities have now already pitched and each gave up 1 run. Seems like Baker couldn’t go wrong!

  18. The Reds lost. Start the witch hunt! Brandon Phillips is to blame for getting thrown out at third. Broxton for throwing a passed ball that Hanigan should have caught, which set up the tough fielding error on Scott Rolen. Drew Stubbs and Dusty Baker are usually blamed for anything that goes badly, so they might as well be charged also. That’s five.

    Who expected this series to end in three games? Not many. How many expected the Reds to WIN this series in three games? Even fewer.

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