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Let’s recap tonight’s titanic struggle….
FINAL
Cincinnati 2
St. Louis 4
W: J. Garcia (7-7)
L: B. Arroyo (12-10)
S: J. Motte (41)
BOX SCORE
POSITIVES
–Drew Stubbs had two hits and scored a run. JJ Hoover pitched a perfect ninth.
NEGATIVES
–A win today would have given the Reds a one-game lead over Washington for the #1 seed in the playoffs. As it is, the Reds and Nats are tied for the best record.
–The offense continues to struggle mightily.
NOT-SO-RANDOM THOUGHTS
–Reds lose, but I’m told they will play another game tomorrow.
–Bronson Arroyo wasn’t great, but he did top the 200 IP mark for the season. Tonight, Arroyo threw five innings and gave up three runs on six hits.
–If Logan Ondrusek or Jose Arredondo make the playoff roster over JJ Hoover, it will be a complete travesty.
–For everyone who is on the verge of panicking, there is very little correlation between September and the playoffs.
Arroyo has now reached 200 innings, give the #Reds 4 pitchers with 200ip for the first time since 1943.
— Reds (@Reds) October 2, 2012
Ryan Hanigan leads MLB with 49% of would-be base stealers caught.
— Sir Random (@RedsRandomness) October 2, 2012
@redlegnation One of the best things about the upcoming playoffs is the rest of the nation will get to see how good Ryan Hanigan is #reds
— Richard Fitch (@RichardFitchNYC) October 2, 2012
Of course, some of us view the first listed negative as a positive. Just saying.
Interesting that Dusty said before the game that, yes, they had talked pretty much about who was gonna make the postseason roster, but that obviously he wasn’t gonna be revealing that information now……..but in answering the next question, about how he was gonna use players for this St. Louis series, he said he needed to get guys some work, and he named Simon and Hoover specifically. Why would he need to get them some work if they weren’t a lock for the postseason roster???
I really think the Reds prefer playing the Giants over either WC team in the NLDS…
Are you suggesting they are throwing these games? Just wondering.
Not at all, but instead more concerned with preping team for playoffs is no. 1 objective.
That’s an ignoratio elenchi
That’s an ignoratio elenchi
The way dn4192 said it, I really wasn’t sure. His response also didn’t make it clear to me.
I was at the game tonight and it was a tough one to watch, but I did get Joey’s autograph so I guess it wasn’t a total loss.
The fact that the last series of the year is against St. Louis it taking the fun out of the end of the season. Everyone is waiting for the other shoe to drop on this team, which is tied for the best record in baseball, and it’s as though everyone expects the Reds to be eliminated by the Mighty Cardinals. Let’s play the Giants twice on their home field against Cain and Lincecum so long as we don’t have to play the Cardinals, because everyone knows we can’t beat them. Of course, the other shoe dropping could be the offense, which has now disappeared.
But that’s what the worriers are worried about. And with the offense not clicking, watching the Cardinals offense doesn’t make one feel better.
Votto has been getting on base but said in an interview today that his power is not there and it might not be until 2013. With the Reds reliance on HRs and no one hitting them, that’s a sobering thought.
First, on your previous post, the Cards are not better than the Reds when you consider this whole season. However, I don’t like our chances in a 5-gamer right now.
So Votto is finally confirming what we all already knew. Interesting.
The Reds will sweep the Giants, I do think they prefer playong them, over Atlants and St.Louis, the match up is perfect for them.
The two hottest teams right now are the two teams trying to survive by gaining the 2nd WC berth. That might not be a coincidence. The Nats and Braves hit even less than the Reds tonite. The Giants (so far, into the 8th) have also hit less.
The Dodgers and Cardinals do have strong lineups, but I don’t think we should assume that they’re the two best teams in the NL.
@vegastypo: I think Dusty was anxious to give Hoover and Simon work because they’re both still on the bubble. He wanted to see them pitch against a strong lineup that will probably be in the postseason. Hoover pitched well, helping his case.
As I’ve said, I hope that Leake, not Simon, is the long man.
Everyone(not just the Reds) better be scared to death of the WLBs in the postseason because they have more dumb luck in the playoffs/world series than all of the other teams combined.
Aside from Nelson Cruz not catching the world-series-ending ball (which most people think he shouldn’t have had, though I think he should have), what luck did they have last year?
Seems to me the luck for them is getting *in* the postseason (2006, 2011 both).
The Tigers pitcher couldn’t field a ball to save their lives in 2006 WS. Anthony Reyes pitches his one good game of his Cardinals career in game 1 of the WS.
In Game 2 of the 2011 NLDS with the Phillies up 1-0 games and leading 4-0 in game 2 Molina gets a scratch infield single to spearhead a 3 run rally getting them back in the game. Washington made several horrible managing decisions like his insistence of using Ogando every damn game when he was clearly ineffective.
Dodgers win, still alive.
Dodgers 3, Giants 2. Now I really want the Reds to win later today. Otherwise they get to watch the Cardinals celebrate.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: You don’t want to face the hot team in the playoffs, even if they aren’t the best team. In that sense, both the Cardinals and Dodgers are dangerous. All the NL division winners (not just the Reds) all look beatable right now.
I for one will feel better if Latos shuts down the Cardinals tomorrow and the Reds score a few runs against Carpenter.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: One strong similarity between the 2011 and 2012 Cardinals is that both teams lost a lot of games due to bullpen problems, and both teams had their bullpen get their act together in September.
The Oakland A’s are in. What a great story. I’ve enjoyed watching them play recently.
The craziest thing is that with only a bit more than 1% of the season left (2 out of 162 games to be played), the Oakland A’s can be the #5 seed, the #4 seed, or…the #1 seed. I’m not sure whether they can be #3 or #2, but it’s just nuts that with 2 games left a team could be the second wildcard or the best team in the league!
Win or lose, the Reds are in the Postseason! I don’t agree with being the #1 team in the NL just for the fact that I don’t want to see the Reds face either the Cardinals or Braves. I think those two teams produce offensively better than any of the Division leaders. I rather have Washington face those teams and Reds take the chances against the Giants. I’m not one to discuss the lackluster offense or the line-up because the Reds have been winning! I just hope the bats get hot during the NLDS and pitching stays the same or get better!!
I would rather have the homefield against the Nationals when the Reds play them in the next round. This is the advantage that everyone seems to ignore. I cannot believe that management would say it does not matter who gets homefield in a best of 7 series, I just do not get why not go all out for the homefield and gain some momentum, but I guess it is better for morale when you act like you do not care and it does not happen.
I personally want them the next 2 and force a play-in game between the Dodgers and Cards
And, you are ignoring the distinct possibility (probably 50-50) that the Nats don’t even make it to the NLCS, meaning the Reds get home field anyways.
Personally, I want to optimize for getting to the NLCS. I’d rather play the Braves first, Giants second, and Cards last. It’s quite complex, actually, if I could choose the #1 or #2 seed.
Aloha, my name is Petty Officer David Wietlisbach. I am stationed on the USS Bremerton SSN 698. It is a fast attack submarine home ported in Pearl Harbor, HI. I have kind of an odd request for any of you Reds fans. I grew up in North College Hill. I am a very loyal Reds fan to say the least. Fanatic is what my wife calls me but she is from Colorado and would not understand. Anyway, since I am on a submarine you can imagine that our communications are limited to say the least. In fact the only communication with the outside civilian world we have is called Sailormail. It is simply a texted based email system that us submarine sailors use to email back and forth to our loved ones. We can not receive pictures or html links. Just plain text. I respect the loyalty and in depth reviews that is provided by this site and my request is that somehow my sailormail address is placed onto an emailing list of the site or something of the sort. It just has to be text based. I am going to be out to sea for almost all of the playoffs and probably will be on a 6 month deployment by the time the World Series rolls around. If this is a achievable request then I thank you very much. If not then I understand. Thank you everyone for your time. Go Redlegs! My address is
wietlidm@bremerton.navy.mil
Very Respectfully,
ET1(SS) Wietlisbach, David
If the objective is to win in the playoffs shouldn’t whom you are playing have some baring on how you fill out your roster and rotation?
What can we posters do to help?
@seat101: I don’t know but i would like to somehow.Maybe I fearless leader might know a way.I respect all military personal and everything they sacrifice to keep our country save god bless them all.
@David Wietlisbach: David, I don’t know what Chad, the owner of this site can do in this regard. However, I would be happy to cut and paste posts and anything else you might want to read from this site, into an email to you on a regular basis, so that you can keep up during the playoffs.
We greatly appreciate your service. It’s the least I can do.
@Richard Fitch:
@seat101:
@steelheels:
Richard, it sounds like you have it covered. If you need or want any help, just drop a line in the thread and I’ll pitch in.
@David Wietlisbach:
David, born and raised in Mt. Healthy and also served on the boats. The world just keeps getting smaller. Go Reds!
Richard – anyone can cut/paste to send? Assuming we have copyright holders’ permission, of course.
ET1 (SS) Weitilsbach – are there others on your boat who would like the same service for a different team? Let us know. We can help.
@David Wietlisbach: What about box scores and game summaries from the wire services? Do you get those? We can easily cut and paste forward those too… And thank you to you and your entire crew for your service!
I don’t know what everyone else’s goals are for the Reds at this point, but at the start of the season, my goal personal goal was for the Reds to again make the playoffs, hopefully by winning the division. Now that the division title has been secured, the only goal I have is for the Reds to make the WS, hopefully winning the WS. In order to do that they are going to have to win both the NLDS and NLCS, so phooey on who else wins what and who plays who. If the Reds are going to the WS, they have to beat anybody and everybody. Bring on all comers and PLAY BALL:!:
Have some time to think about next year and what the team budget and roster will be like next year. The Reds will be freeing up almost $22 MM in salary. Masset ($2.4M), Bray ($1.4M), Madson ($5.9M), Rolen ($8.2M), Cairo ($1M), Valdez ($1M), and Ludwick ($2M). That’s $21.9MM. Arroyo could possibly be on that list come next year, but we all know he has lots of deferred money coming to him. Rolen (much lesser salary) and Ludwick ($5M option) may be back. Votto’s salary goes to $17MM. Bruce goes to $7.5MM. Cueto goes to $10MM. Bailey is Arb-2yr and will get a significant increase over his $2.4MM. Latos is Arb-1Yr and will get a big bump up. I can see Walt giving a 3 or 4 year contract to both Bailey and Latos this winter. Cueto might get a 2-3 year extension on his contract. Locking those 3 up for the next 4 years would be huge. Hanigan deserves another 2 year deal. That savings looks like it will be eaten up by increases for established players. Then they have to sign players to replace those that leave. The Reds won’t have an $85 MM payroll next year. That looks like it’ll be close to $100 MM for 2013. Reds will need about 2.8 to 3.0 million fans next year to go thru the turnstiles.
@WVRedlegs:
When the Reds signed Arroyo to his current contract, they made the commtment for that contract through 2014. His contract makes him virtually impossible to trade and they certainly won’t just cut him loose and eat his contract, so he’s a lock for next year.
I don’t think the Reds can extend Cueto’s contract. As much as I would like to see him extended, I just don’t think it’s finacially feasible. He has just priced himeself out of the Reds’ market after his current contract. I do hope the Reds can lock up Bailey & Latos to contracts that will cover their arbitration and 1 or 2 FA years.
I can’t see Rolen signing for bench salary, <$1M, and I think he probably retires after this year, but he is a wild card right now. Only Rolen knows how he feels about retiring or continuing to play.
I really hope that Luddy agrees to his $5M option, but if he does, I think he is leaving a lot of $ on the table. At the very least, I think Luddy may give the Reds a little discount to resign, but not for $5M.
The pitching staff, starting and relieving, looks solid, but Uncle Walt may try to sign Madsen or Broxton.
CF will be the key talking point during the off season. Even if BH shows great in the AFL, he will not be ML ready in 2013 and no one else is ML for promotion from the minor leagues.
@WVRedlegs: Given the market, the best the Reds can do is 2.5-2.6 million fans.
Priority #1 in the offseason for me is locking up Latos long term. I think we all understand pitching must come first. I’d kick the tires on a Homer extension as well. If anything, a fixed cost for him increases his trade value.
Frankly, I don’t see Rolen as a fit next year w/ HRod and SuperTodd able to man 3B. At the same time, you’d think Cincy would be the only place he’d want to play since it’s so close to home. Retirement looks likely to me.
With Ludwick, I’d offer a 2 year deal for ~$8mil per w/ a club only option for a 3rd year. Of course, he’ll more likely be seeking Cuddyer type money, so it may not work. If not, I’m willing to look at trading Leake to acquire that piece.
@BloodyHo: The horses are Cueto and Latos, and I like Leake as a 5th starter who’s still very cheap.
This means that I think Bailey may be too much of a luxury. If you sign him long term now, then he’s selling high. This is his first good year. Is it a trend, or is this his career year? It’s impossible to say. But because his best year is this year, the cash to sign him could be quite staggering. How much do you think would be reasonable? If he wants something like 5 years, 50-60 million…then what? They really ought to consider trading Bailey this offseason. His first arb. year is this offseason—I could see him getting a 3x raise next year (7.5M), and that’s getting pretty pricey. The closest arb. case on point is John Lannan, who lost his case and got 5M for 2012. Lannan’s 2011 is not as good as Bailey’s 2012, either.
I really do wonder what Bailey would go for long term—if he were a free agent right now, you’d think it would be quite a bit.
Last summer they couldn’t sell Bailey for anything but scrape parts. A good season and a no-hitter on his resume, I don’t see a Latos deal in the works, but I think they can trade him for two good parts they need. But on the other hand, the reason the Reds are were they are is because of good pitching. Who takes his spot in the rotation? Keep in mind the organization seems to have settled on having Chapman as the closer. Especially will Broxton and Madson leaving.
Good questions—I can’t answer them because I don’t know what Bailey would bring. However, if a team got excited about him, the Reds could perhaps get a top pitching prospect in return. Then, Cingrani could take Bailey’s spot. No, I don’t expect Cingrani to put up Bailey 2012 numbers, but I’m not sure Bailey will do that, and I’m also not sure they really need Bailey 2012 numbers with the other 4 returning starters.
Note: I only would consider it, I’d see what people might offer. Also, I have no idea what Castellini will set the budget at. One needs holistic info to guess what the best path is.
@al:
The Reds have already announced their postseason rotation as being Cueto-Arroyo-Latos-Bailey, whether you like it or not. Maybe it will change for the NLCS, depending on whether or not the first series goes 5 games (since Cueto would start the 5th game).
I think calls to trade Bailey (or to consider a long term extension) are premature. Tony Cingrani is likely to start 2013 in AAA, where he belongs at the moment, if everyone stays healthy through spring training. See how he does, if he does well and everyone stays healthy they can consider trading Bailey in June or July. Remember that the starters all staying healthy in 2012 is a remarkable and unusual feat rather than something we should expect to continue in 2013.
Something else to factor in, the Reds want to keep Chapman in the closer role where he has been so dominant. Fine, I think that’s a good idea. On the other hand the decision in 2012 was due to Ryan Madson’s injury – a 2013 injury to Cueto or Latos would likely force Chapman into the rotation. Not necessarily desirable, but a real possibility. Cingrani can fill a rotation spot but only Chapman has the ability to adequately replace an ace without harming ticket sales. I hope Chapman stays in the closer role but I wouldn’t place any huge bets on it (even in the form of a huge long term deal to Homer Bailey).
Isn’t Cueto’s contract up after next season (2013)?? I’d pull the stops out and sign him to another 3 year deal. Then sign Latos and Bailey to 3-4 year deals and lock those 3 up thru the 2015 or 2016 seasons. Arroyo is up after next year and Leake hasn’t gotten over the hump yet. Maybe that year is next year for him. That leaves room for Cingrani or Stephenson or Corcino to advance to the rotation in 2014.
As for Rolen, if the Reds win the WS, I can see him retiring and going out on top. Maybe the same thing with Dusty since his health related issue happened.
Ludwick, perhaps takes a larger offer and moves on. Hopefully not.
Under the CBA, no player can recive less than 80% of the previous year’s basic salary. Like it or not, Scott Rolen is not going to play in Cincinnati next year.
Whoa! Really?! That will force a lot of players to retire after their big contracts are up. OR, if a player has a bad season in the last year of their contract year, they may not be able to get 80%. Rolen may not be ready to retire. Maybe he wants to hang on for another year. Now he can’t. He’s done.
If this is true, contracts will start to become camel-backed instead of back-end loaded. It will make it more difficult for smaller markets to get good players with a little left in their tank at the end of their careers. Junior would have ended his career in Chicago playing for the White Sox! That would have been a tragedy!
@seat101: Interesting. Though does that apply to a free agent? Isn’t Rolen’s full contract up at the end of ’12? I would think that 80% rule would apply more to arbitration negotiations and whatnot.
Matt – it applies to all players.
I think the second wildcard team, be it LA or StL, will be the team to fear.
The three division winners are playing to win, but it’s not their primary reason for playing. These games revert to a preseason mentality…. getting guys ready… choosing your 25-man roster…. rearranging your rotation… etc. The wildcard team has to burn their best pitcher, but I think they have even more advantages. 1.) They are still in win now mode, I have a hard time believing it’s hard to spin up the machine and get into a sense of urgency once you relax. 2.) The wildcard team gets the first two games at home. 3.) The wildcard team will already have a win before the other teams get to play. 4.) The wildcard team has a warm bullpen, and warm bats from not having so many days off.
Consider that last year, the Cardinal would not even be in the postseason discussion. When they clinch (which I think they will), they will be the beneficiaries of a new back door into the postseason.
(Best case, StL and LA tie and have to play a tiebreaker.)
You can look at it as warm bats and bullpens against a rusty team, or you can look at it as tired bats and bullpens against a well-rested team.
I think later in the season, an extra day off can work wonders on a team. Plus, you always have the chance that the playin game will go to extra innings and they will physically wear the team out, forcing them to scramble to come up with options against a well rested team who can line up all their players exactly how they like them.
It’s all about perspective. Personally, I think the only major disadvantage about this WC setup is the higher seeds have to start on the road, thus putting more pressure on them. But all things considered, the higher seeds still have a few advantages as far as game management goes.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: Sorry HAT. My bad.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: If I was as clever as Richard I would have said something like “Straw man down”. I still giggle about that. Funniest thing on this site in months.
Page 26 on this pdf
http://mlb.mlb.com/pa/pdf/cba_english.pdf
I can think of a few teams that could use him and might be willing to pay him @5.3 million. Boston. Chicago. Miami. Houston. All of them could use his veteran presence on the bench and occasional appearances on the field.
It’s a luxury, that’s for sure. 5M for his likely production is a deal most will pass on. But sure, it just takes one.
@seat101:
I don’t think your interpretation of this is correct. It appears to me that the 80% salary rule only applies to players under a club’s control. Once they hit free agency all bets are off.
Site meter? A poem not in Braille?
@Hank Aarons Teammate: yes, aluxury. One few teams would consider, much less afford, yet to the right team he could teach, teach by example and like Nellie did for Joe, or what Hank did for Dusty show how a Major League Baseball Player behaves.
@WVRedlegs: Cueto is signed through 2014 and the Reds have a $10 million option for 2015. 2015 would be Cueto’s age-29 season, which sounds about right. I wouldn’t extend him any longer than that at this point.
I’m looking forward to the playoffs but until then, I’m interested how Latos will add to his career 1-4 10.24 ERA stats against the WLB’s tonight.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: Homer is currently in his first year of arbitration and is being paid $2.43 million, so he has two more years of team control remaining. He’s 26. He won’t make a huge amount in arbitration next year, so why trade him just when he seems to be reaching that next level? A 30 start/200 inning pitcher is a valuable commodity.
I’m still rooting for them to take the #1 spot, because while the wildcard team will possibly be more warmed up, I think there’s a real advantage to burning their first starter.
In a Reds-Giants series the pitching matchups would likely be:
Cueto-Cain (push)
Latos-Bumgarner (push)
Arroyo-Vogelsong (push since Vogelsong has fallen off recently)
Baily-Zito (adv. Reds)
Cueto-Cain (push)
In a Reds-Cards series, if the Cards use Lohse in the wildcard game, they’d be:
Cueto-Lynn (adv. Reds)
Latos-Wainright (Reds)
Arroyo-Westbrook (Reds)
Baily-Lohse (Cards)
The Reds could have the series wrapped up before the Cards ever pitch their best starter.
Prime
You are correct. I was conflating that paragraph wit the owner’s collusion particularly with Rod Carew. Thanks.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baseball_collusion