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Are you scared, yet?
The Reds keep winning, but keep scoring fewer runs while doing it. I’ll leave the exact statistics to others, first because it’s depressing and second, because it’s enough to know this: for the month of September, the Reds are at or near the bottom of the NL in many key offensive measurements.
That’s not something to woo about.
But, is it something to boo hoo about? Have the Reds’ bats gone into a deep and somber slumber from which they cannot be shaken? Are we witnessing a foreshadowing of October in Philly 2010, when Cincinnati hitters looked over matched at the plate, as if they were swinging Dusty’s Australian toothpicks instead of Louisville’s oaken lumber?
Have we seen the best of the Reds’ hitters?
Like that high school girlfriend you had who seemed to be crazy about you one minute, but didn’t know who you were the next, Offense is fickle. Here, then–poof. Gone. Nowhere to be seen. Offense doesn’t sit by the phone waiting for Todd to call. Ask Jay Bruce. He’s been dating that gal for as long as we’ve known him.
Is that all it is? Is Offense some ephemeral gift a team has no control over? Are the Reds at the mercy of the winds of fate, or are there real reasons why this team suddenly cannot plate runs?
First, let’s understand that this simply not an offensive powerhouse we have here in the Queen City this season. That fact has been obscured somewhat by the Reds home run production for the first five months of this season. However, it’s time to recognize that this rendition of the Cincinnati Red Stockings is probably not going to carry the day with their bats. They are a middle of the pack offense in the NL—at best.
September has brought with it some challenges that have helped stifle the offense. They are:
- An expanded roster. More players mean different lineups everyday. It means looking at players with an eye toward the future, not necessarily what is the best offensive lineup on any given day.
- Personal goals. Once it was clear the Reds weren’t going to be caught, it was time to take some swings to pad personal stats. I won’t name names, but some guys have been swinging for the fences, when a well placed opposite field hit would have done the job quite nicely. Even Frazier was quoted as saying he wants to get into the lineup so he can get his 20th HR.
- Mentally tired players. Quite a bit of gas was spent holding the fort down while Joey was out. It’s only natural that players have let down a bit.
- Team philosophy. Let’s face it: certain players are going to be on the post-season roster whether we like it or not. They are soldiers who have been here all year and are not suddenly going to be jettisoned at this late date. If you’re going to depend on these guys, you need to get them some ABs to keep them sharp, even if it doesn’t result in an optimum lineup.
- Youth. Cozart and Frazier are important cogs to the offense. Cozart because of the pop in his bat and Frazier because, well, he’s Super Todd. Zack hasn’t experienced the depth and breadth of a full major league tilt. His season ended prematurely last year. Todd is used to being done in early September. There is an adjustment to be made here that is often overlooked.
The Reds will tighten up. Players who have been taking it easy or thinking about their own personal milestones will redirect their mindset. The vets will refocus and make sure everyone else does, too. Less clear is how much of an anchor having Drew Stubbs in the lineup and having Todd Frazier out of the lineup will prove to be. On the eve of Joey Votto’s return to the lineup, Marty Brennaman made a very pointed observation in the direction of Dusty Baker when he said on the air:
If Todd Frazier isn’t in the lineup when Joey Votto returns, the Reds are not putting their best team on the field.
Can a middle of the pack offense survive that decision when the best pitchers in Baseball start taking the hill later this week?
Is the Reds’ post-season in danger?
In the last 30 days, Todd Frazier and Drew Stubbs have been very similar hitters. Stubbs’ defense makes him worth more.
Stubbs: .159/.221
Frazier: .181/.241
This doesn’t worry me in the least though. Stubbs is being Stubbs, Frazier has just been tired I think (and perhaps trying to hit that 20th HR). The other reason I have very little worry about the offense sits in the #3 hole of our lineup and starts every game knowing he will be on base at least twice. How scary is that?
Beyond that, pitching and defense. Those have never left us all year long and I don’t think they’re going anywhere in October either. Also, just to point out the obvious.. offense doesn’t sit at home waiting on Todd to call because she stalks him like one of those creepy women you hear about in horror tales, waiting to pounce when you least expect it.
Ah, Steve, I see Mr. Small Sample Size has been whispering in your ear. Be care about him. He’s a carnival huckster.
Seriously, I think Todd being hurt is a mitigating factor here. Also a factor is the fact that he hasn’t been playing as much because Rolen has eaten up some playing time, not to mention the other people (Cairo, Heisey, Valdez, etc.) who are being run out there to keep them in the mix and relevant.
As for the defensive part of the equation, if you could make a convincing argument that enough balls are going to be hit to him that no one else on the team could get to reliably–and, that this makes up for the 3 to 4 at bats we are giving away each night with Drew in the lineup–then I might agree. Because I value defense more than the next guy. But I simply don’t see it.
How are we to know, if the Reds don’t hit in the postseason, whether it’s just good pitchers versus a mediocre offense, or whether it’s a continuation of a deep slump?
Of course, one can’t know that, but I agree that the terrible offensive performance of September is very likely completely irrelevant. The way that it could be relevant is if some of the slumping players are actually hurt and we don’t know it. Otherwise, I see the postseason as completely independent from September.
The youth on the team are the last guys I’d be looking to blame. I mean, XPaul/Didi/HRod/Phipps/ have all performed admirably when called upon. It’s the black hole of Valdez/Cairo/Stubbs that haven’t risen to the occasion. Their supposed veteran intangibles don’t mask their lack of hitting ability, and management’s failure to concede this point makes me question their sanity.
This is the one thing that has irked me for the last month—that the postseason roster decisions were already baked into the cake when the month started. Given how incredibly awful Valdez/Cairo/STubbs have been, it’s baffling there wasn’t an open competition for roster spots.
This much I know–the 25 guys on the postseason roster won’t be the best 25 guys who are eligible.
Not to call anyone out, but I wish that those who claim this great defensive prowess of one Mr. Stubbs would just once provide something in the form of statistical evidence to back it up. As someone who has watched the vast majority of games this season, I just don’t see it. I see an average centerfielder out there. For instance I went to the Dodgers game last Sunday night and I saw him slow down on a ball that was over his head but could have caught if he had made an all out run. My friend even commented that he was dogging it. But then again, I may be wrong.
Can’t speak for that exact play in that exact game but to even imply that Stubbs is an average defender is well off-base. I have watched literally every pitch of this season (thank you mlb.tv) and he is the best outfielder on our team, bar none. His speed out there is highly under-appreciated by some on these boards. I won’t go into if his defense makes up for his bat, but his defense is stellar.
Also, I don’t have a clue how to judge defensive metrics so I can’t provide you with that aspect. I’m sure someone else will cover it for you.. but just going by the eyes he does an exemplary job out in center field for us. He gets a lot of good jumps on balls off the bat and makes tough catches look easy due to his speed. I don’t remember the exact ball (I want to say it was one off Cutch’s bat) this last series but someone crushed one out towards that “North Shore Notch” and Stubbs simply ran it right down and caught it then pumped the ball back in towards the field to make sure the runner had to tag up.
I remember commenting about it being a great catch on the game thread.
I am not saying he doesn’t make good or great plays, but i have also watched a lot of baseball the last couple of years and I have noticed that he does not come in on balls hit in front of him very well. And I most definitely do not think his defense warrants the amount of at-bats he gets in a season. If you want to put him in as a late-inning defender to protect a lead, that is fine. but his net worth is negative as far as I am concerned. Plus he is gradually getting worse at the plate every year. It is also not his fault that the manager keeps running him out there (especially in the 2-slot most of the season) when he is overmatched at the plate.
The Reds lack of offense is puzzling. Because of this it makes the playoffs about even. Matchup-wise the Reds look superior to the Nats. They only have two starting position players that could start for the Reds. At 1B Votto gets the nod over LaRouche. At 2B its Phillips. At SS Cozart has a slight edge, or its even. At 3B Nats Ryan Zimmerman gets the nod. In LF its Ludwick, in RF its Bruce, and in CF the Nats Harper probably gets the nod. At C its Hanigan. The Reds starting pitching is better and the bullpen is better. If only they can get the offense back on track. Small ball is going to have to enter the equation for Baker in the playoffs. I hope the Reds will bunt a little more (safety squeezes)with a runner on third and less than two outs in these 5 and 7 game series. Even if its the #3-4-5 hitters at bat. Throw “the book” and sterotypes out the window at playoff time. Lets see Bruce drop a bunt down the third base line when the defense puts the shift on him. Take a free base hit if they are going to give it to you. Sometimes, especially when its win or go home time, you have to do the unexpected. Many times its those little things that gets the scoring going.
@Richard Fitch: You’ve provided several reasonable explanations for why Todd Frazier’s slump in September is real and not a factor of a small sample size. In this thread alone you’ve said (a) he’s hurt, (b) he doesn’t hit well unless he plays every day, which we know he won’t in the playoffs, and (c) he’s not used to playing in September. Those factors have manifested in the September statistics I cited.
So which is it? Are there good reasons Frazier is slumping (that won’t change in October) – or is his September slump just small sample size talking?
For that matter, aren’t his good months in 2012 also built on the same small sample size foundation?
Yep, I wasn’t even attempting to argue his overall value.. just saying that Drew has fantastic defense in my eyes.
I’m in general agreement that the team-wide slump isn’t something unique to worry too much about. The sheer adrenaline drop off from the race being essentially over, then actually over, is sufficient to explain it to me.
On the other hand, the team is vulnerable to prolonged slumps because the ones who don’t play with #19 on their backs in general have low walk rates. Walking helps bridge those times when a player (or team) isnt hitting for average. Batting average fluctuates for every player. The ones who have a high BB% built in to their OBP tend to have less run-scoring fluctuation.
This is a weakness of the Reds offensively and always will be until they have a fundamental shift in organizational philosophy that values walking.
On the other hand, the organization has taken a prudent long view in terms of emphasizing pitching and defense. Two out of three is pretty good and the main reason they are sitting today with the best record in baseball.
@Steve Mancuso: Fair points. If you’re going to label his entire season a small sample size, well, sure you can, he is a rookie who didn’t come up until May, after all. I’m just suggesting that talking about September only is a considerably smaller sub-set of at bats. One that’s fairly unreliable, IMO.
Todd is not hurt now. So, yes, I would expect that alone to improve his performance in October.
And I’m hoping that pressure from somewhere above persuades Baker to play him most games in the playoffs.
Also, in making this a discussion about Todd alone, you’re completely avoiding Drew’s deficiencies at the plate, which are significant and likely to continue into the post season. We don’t really know that about Todd.
There is no way to predict how the Reds will do offensively in the playoffs. It is the small sample of small samples. Remember Billy Hatcher had nine straight hits to begin one World Series. Billy was pretty good but who would have put money on that? So the Reds are pretty good hitters and they will be facing good pitchers. Both can be on or off their games. And there is really very little to do, to insure they are razor sharp. You certainly can try but it really is an unknown. And the Reds pitchers may or may not be on the top of their game. It is entirely possible that we could see some slug fests. In fact because baseball is a game mostly of averages and streaks, it may be good that the offense is a little sluggish right now. The law of averages says its about right for a turn around. At any rate I’m really looking forward to the playoffs.
I agree except that Billy Hatcher was a bad, not good, hitter. Both in 1990 and for his career. An OPS+ of 91 for a corner OF just is bad.
Thankfully, he was Babe Ruth in that series…
Billy Hatcher was decent for his career, but yeah, the playoffs tend to bring out some insane hot (and cold) streaks in players. Who knows, maybe Stubbs will get hot and carry the team all through the playoffs. Wouldn’t that be something? I’m talking like hitting 8 home runs, scoring 18 runs, batting .400+, OBP .500+, etc.
Hey, as we saw with Hatcher, stranger things have happened.
@RedBlooded: That’s a really great point.
On Stubbs in CF: The alternative is Heisey and there’s no comparison. I love Heisey’s grit and enthusiasm but if he has to play CF, it’s too risky. Sadly, neither one of these guys is a major upgrade on the other at the plate.
Baserunning: I’d evaluate Stubbs if he ever got on.
Hitting: The Jacoby philosophy has forever confounded me and it’s not just recently it’s manifested itself. This team has too many hitters with bad approaches. The worst is Bruce, then Stubbs (who really has proven he will never hit MLB pitching) … and now Cozart is picking up on it.
Post-season: Reds have won a lot of games by squeaking out a run or two in the 8th against a marginal setup guy. I do not think the Nats or Giants will be that easy.
Ya kneffer nose, but I would hope these guys get together and decide that “home runs or else” isn’t as good as a couple of baserunners every inning.
And FWIW, in October, GABP doesn’t play like a bandbox.
Roster: Whoever we send in there is the same guys who got us there. I have as much faith in Miggy Cairo as I do in Bruce, BP or Rolen … in most situations.
I’m also mindful of all the times in the past month-plus that the Reds have faced pitchers they haven’t seen before, probably haven’t even heard of before. I wonder how much of a scouting report the team received about some of these guys. … Maybe in the postseason, it’s a “better the devil you know” scenario in which we’ve seen the Giants pitchers, the Nats pitchers, and the Braves pitchers (except for maybe Medlen, but the Braves will have to use him for the wild-card game?). … The 2010 postseason was tough to sit through, but that can’t happen again, can it?
Geesh, what a dirge.
This is a theme that has been hit upon all year. I do agree with Richard, 100%. In the regular season, this team is pretty good. Postseason, nnnnnnnot so sure. Regardless, we have all winter to dwell on the lack of offense in the postseason if it happens. Right now the Reds have clinch and are tied for the best record in baseball. Let me refer you to Chad’s next post. Let’s just savor the moment.