2012 Reds / Titanic Struggle Recap

Titanic Struggle Recap: Oh well

Let’s recap tonight’s titanic struggle….

FINAL
Los Angeles 5
Cincinnati 3

W: S. Tolleson (3-1)
L: H. Bailey (12-10)
S: B. League (4)
BOX SCORE

POSITIVES
–Homer Bailey pitched six great innings. (For more on tonight’s performance, see “NEGATIVES” below.)

–Denis Phipps hit his first major league homer, a two-run shot. He also uncorked a frozen rope throw from right field to third base that had jaws dropping around the ballpark.

–Joey Votto walked three times.

NEGATIVES
–Ryan Hanigan left the game with a bruised right shoulder. X-rays were negative, apparently.

–Homer Bailey pitched a terrible seventh inning, surrendering four runs while collecting only two outs. On the evening, Bailey’s line looked like this: 6.2 IP, 5 runs on 5 hits, 2 BB, 6K.

–The offense wasn’t very good.

NOT-SO-RANDOM THOUGHTS
–Reds lose and I couldn’t care less. Life is good.

–Dusty Baker missed the game again tonight, but we’re told he’s out of the hospital, back in Cincinnati, and he’ll be back in the dugout for Tuesday’s game.

48 thoughts on “Titanic Struggle Recap: Oh well

  1. I got the feeling that the Reds didn’t exactly go full force out there tonight.

    Are they looking to create a situation where the Cards don’t make the playoffs?
    or
    Do you think it was just being tired from last night’s celebrations?

  2. Losing the game after the clinch is no big deal. Especially with Kershaw on the mound.

    The offense has been sputtering for weeks, though. And outside of Kershaw and Halladay a few weeks ago, the Reds have been facing some mediocre arms. That is troubling with the SF Giants likely on the horizon.

  3. People mention the stat that when Drew Stubbs scores a run the Reds are 47-6. Stubbs along with Cairo, Arredondo, & Valdez are a group that should not even be on the playoff roster. Here are stats that some people might not know.

    The Reds are 48-8 when Brandon Phillips scores a run.

    The Reds are 241-187 all-time when Scott Rolen starts, 124-47 all-time when he drives in a run.

    The Reds are 59-35 when Ryan Hanigan starts.

    The Reds are 24-23 when Devin Mesoraco starts.

    The Reds are 9-3 when Dioner Navarro starts.

    • The box score is wrong – Tolleson (3-1) won and Bailey (12-10) lost. LeCure didn’t even pitch, let alone get carged with the loss.

      Homer Bailey pitched better than the numbers indicated. In the 7th inning a run scored on a fielding error (charged to Cairo) and Bailey was removed from a 3-1 game, although crummy relief work by Jose Arredondo resulted in two more runs scoring, which were charged to Bailey.

      Arredondo gave up 1 walk and 2 hits but no runs in 1.1 innings… but he did a terrible job. In my opinion Homer Bailey shouldn’t be listed in the Negatives column, Arredondo should be.

      I got the feeling that the Reds didn’t exactly go full force out there tonight… Do you think it was just being tired from last night’s celebrations?

      I get the impression that some players were hung over from celebrating the night before and were not yet back to 100%.

      People mention the stat that when Drew Stubbs scores a run the Reds are 47-6. Stubbs along with Cairo, Arredondo, & Valdez are a group that should not even be on the playoff roster. Here are stats that some people might not know.

      The Reds are 48-8 when Brandon Phillips scores a run.
      The Reds are 241-187 all-time when Scott Rolen starts, 124-47 all-time when he drives in a run.
      The Reds are 59-35 when Ryan Hanigan starts.
      The Reds are 24-23 when Devin Mesoraco starts.
      The Reds are 9-3 when Dioner Navarro starts.

      You’ll also notice that Brandon Phillips tends to be in the everyday lineup and Ryan Hanigan has the benefit of catching the team’s best and most reliable starters… while Mesoraco usually catches the 4th and 5th best starters.

      Like Steve, I don’t see the point of any of the statistics you listed.

      Now the Reds get a day off to rest and recover from hangovers before getting back to work.

  4. @Number 14: You might think that Stubbs shouldn’t start in the postseason (I disagree with that) but to say that the team’s best defensive outfielder and top base stealer shouldn’t be on the post-season roster defies logic.

    I don’t understand the point of any of the rest of your statistics.

    • @Number 14: You might think that Stubbs shouldn’t start in the postseason (I disagree with that) but to say that the team’s best defensive outfielder and top base stealer shouldn’t be on the post-season roster defies logic.

      Heisey should get more starts in the postseason instead of Stubbs is what I should’ve said.

  5. I actually have liked some of what I’ve seen out of Phipps so far. That at bat he had tonight against Belisario was excellent. And that throw…WOW!

    Francona actually had the stones to criticize him for that on the ESPN broadcast, saying he should hit the cutoff man and not show off his arm. There was a man on second who could potentially tag and get to third. What good does hitting the cutoff man do at all there with noone else on base. :roll:

  6. @Love4Reds: The Reds didn’t have their A lineup out there. Not even their B lineup. They’re not going to lose just to help teams catch the Cardinals. The way to keep the Cardinals out, if that’s a goal, is to beat up on them the final weekend.

  7. I swear Francona was a negative force in that booth. And good God, he talked about the Red Sox winning the world series and how stuff like their solid rotation “will never happen again”. Except, you know, right in front of you…

  8. Kind of a bummer that so many starters were rested but Hanigan’s right shoulder gets bruised. That’s a very valuable right shoulder, obviously, hope he’s OK.

  9. @BearcatNation: Absolutely, the Phipps AB against Belisari was outstanding. Belisari can eat up RHed hitters, as we’ve seen. Thought the Reds might even get something going. Then Stubbs strikes out swinging at ball 4 way outside.

    Seems like Phipps would be a better bat off the bench than Cairo. Of course, a lot of people would be a better bat off the bench than Cairo.

  10. @redsfanman: Homer’s in the positives column for the first 6 innings and the negatives for the 7th inning. Seems reasonable to me, Homer was hit hard in the 7th.

    You’re right that Arredondo should be listed in the negatives column. When he left the Reds were only down 3-1, with 2 outs. Arredondo was throwing the ball all over the place. And why was he brought in to get a RHed hitter out ? I hope that he’s only used against lefties in the playoffs. (And never with the bases loaded.)

  11. @redsfanman: The Cairo error was ugly, but a run didn’t score on it, at least officially. Gordon scored on a sac bunt and Cairo’s dropping the ball allowed the guy on 2nd to make it to 3rd. Cairo’s defense has declined as much as his hitting.

  12. @redsfanman: What’s wrong with posting a few random stats? I didn’t know I needed a reason to post a couple stats. The Reds record when Stubbs scores is mentioned a lot. I was merely posting a couple of stats that are not mentioned a lot. The Phillips stat shows the Reds are just as successful when he scores a run as compared to Stubbs. I thought the Rolen stats were kinda interesting, especially the Reds record when he knocks in a run. So I posted those. And since I was posting those I figured for the heck of it I would throw in the stats when the catchers start.

    I’ll try to post more meaningful statistics next time

  13. I didn’t see how Hanigan’s getting hit in the adam’s apple (nasty) by the carom from Arredondo’s pitch in the dirt bruised his shoulder. According to Speier it hurt his collarbone but he’s OK.

  14. Number 14 – I saw the point of your stats right away. I get tired of hearing how the Reds record is when Stubbs scores a run. Pointing out how the Reds record is when other players do things is a good point. I would love to see Stubbs used as a late inning defensive replacement only in the playoffs but I don’t think it will happen. He’ll probably be in the lineup and striking out every game.

    Which guy in the booth kept saying that Votto made the error that Cairo made? He even corrected himself and then said no it was Votto. Maybe he eventually got it right, I left the room for a minute. I miss listening to our regular announcers. As much as Marty can get on my nerves, I missed hearing him call the game yesterday when they clinched.

  15. @Number 14: don’t let them grind you down! Your stats are as relevant as the Stubb stat. In fact, it helps put the Stubbs stat in perspective.

    @Steve Mancuso: Perhaps you could ask him why, rather than dismiss him with a ‘defies logic” response?

  16. Team record when a certain player is in the lineup or when a certain player does X is among the silliest stats out there. That’s what I took from Number 14′s comment.

    That said, no way is Stubbs not playoff roster worthy. One could make the argument for Stubbs vs. Heisey as the starting centerfielder, but I don’t see how Stubbs gets left off the roster altogether.

  17. @Greg Dafler: I have to agree with you on that one. The record when player X does (fill in here) stats are really pushing it.

    If Stubbs hits a HR in his first at bat in the playoffs, the Giants/Cardinals/Braves/Nationals/whoever aren’t going to say “well when that Stubbs scores a run, the Reds are tough to beat”

  18. Yeah I took his post immediately as a way to demonstrate the meaninglessness of the Stubbs stat, so I am not really sure why people were piling on over it.

      • We want to be #1.

        Why? Do we really want to risk facing the Cards in the first round of the playoffs? Also the number 1 seed won’t know where it has to travel to until the last minute. Also are we willing to play our starters to the degree needed over these remaining 9 games to secure the no. 1 slot?

        • Why?Do we really want to risk facing the Cards in the first round of the playoffs?Also the number 1 seed won’t know where it has to travel to until the last minute.Also are we willing to play our starters to the degree needed over these remaining 9 games to secure the no. 1 slot?

          If they have to play on the road, I’d rather the Reds have the advantage of playing a team that had to burn their best starter in the WC game to get there. I don’t think knowing where they will be going is that big of a deal. Pack a bag, expect the worst travel-wise, and go with the flow.

          As for the opponent being the Cardinals, I just don’t have this irrational fear of them that some in the fan base do. There’s a reason they are so far behind us in the standings. They’re not as good as the Reds. You can’t categorically say that about the Giants, Nationals or Braves.

        • If they have to play on the road, I’d rather the Reds have the advantage of playing a team that had to burn their best starter in the WC game to get there. I don’t think knowing where they will be going is that big of a deal. Pack a bag, expect the worst travel-wise, and go with the flow.As for the opponent being the Cardinals, I just don’t have this irrational fear of them that some in the fan base do. There’s a reason they are so far behind us in the standings. They’re not as good as the Reds. You can’t categorically say that about the Giants, Nationals or Braves.

          I think in a short series the Cards can be very scary as was proven last year. Add to that you basically have Latos as a non factor because the Cards light him up. add to that the Card have gotten Carpenter back and would get games 1-2 at home, I would much rather face the Giants in their big ballpark in games 1-2 over the Cards.

        • I think in a short series the Cards can be very scary as was proven last year.Add to that you basically have Latos as a non factor because the Cards light him up.add to that the Card have gotten Carpenter back and would get games 1-2 at home, I would much rather face the Giants in their big ballpark in games 1-2 over the Cards.

          Well, in a short series, anybody can be scary. You could say that about any team the Reds could face. I think Latos is pitching better than anybody on the staff right now, so, I’m less concerned about his past against St. Louis. Carpenter has been out all year. It’s unlikely he’s just going to go back to being the pitcher he was and the end of last year. Could he do it. Sure. But highly unlikely he’s not going to have bad outing or 2 before all is said and done. It’s not like turning on a light switch.

          Finally, a big ballpark (SF) means fewer HRs. The Reds’ offense this year has been somewhat dependent on hitting them. (sse, e.g., Marlin Park last week). This is not exactly a small ball team. And if you’re going to worry about Carpenter, you should worry just as much, if not more, about Lincecum. He’s suddenly pitching very well again.

          I want no part of SF on the road for the first two games.

        • Well, in a short series, anybody can be scary. You could say that about any team the Reds could face. I think Latos is pitching better than anybody on the staff right now, so, I’m less concerned about his past against St. Louis. Carpenter has been out all year. It’s unlikely he’s just going to go back to being the pitcher he was and the end of last year. Could he do it. Sure. But highly unlikely he’s not going to have bad outing or 2 before all is said and done. It’s not like turning on a light switch.Finally, a big ballpark (SF) means fewer HRs. The Reds’ offense this year has been somewhat dependent on hitting them. (sse, e.g., Marlin Park last week). This is not exactly a small ball team. And if you’re going to worry about Carpenter, you should worry just as much, if not more, about Lincecum. He’s suddenly pitching very well again.I want no part of SF on the road for the first two games.

          To ignore the past is not smart. Latos can’t pitch vs. the Cards and provide the Reds with a good chance to win, I don’t care how well he is pitching right now or what. Just look at his numbers, they are beyond bad they are down right scary. Add into that the “Cardinal” factor and look at our record against them over the past few years, give me the Giants any day. If you look at how we have done, I will take our chances over Giants and Latos facing them twice over Cueto facing the Cards twice.

        • To ignore the past is not smart.

          The past does not necessarily predict the future. Once upon a time, Chapman had serious control issues. Now, he doesn’t. Young pitchers grow. You’re hanging your hat on what is essentially a small sample size.

          I think we won the season series with the Cardinals last year, did we not? Nothing to be afraid of there. Luckily, the players aren’t as afraid of St. Louis as you are.

          And I seriously doubt anybody but Cueto starts twice against anybody, whether the opponent is SF or STL.

        • Why? Do we really want to risk facing the Cards in the first round of the playoffs? Also the number 1 seed won’t know where it has to travel to until the last minute. Also are we willing to play our starters to the degree needed over these remaining 9 games to secure the no. 1 slot?

          What Richard said.

  19. Today is the last scheduled off day for the rest of the remaining 9 regular season games and 6 of those games are against teams still striving to make the playoffs. The team should be pretty well rested after today and reasonably healthy, with the possible exceptions of Luddy & Hanigan. I don’t think Hanigan will be an issue and I hope Luddy will be back at least for the series with the Birds. Those dang hammies can be tough. We should get a pretty good gauge of how the post season lineup and roster will shake out over the next week. It’s time to start putting on the post season face for the Reds.

  20. @Jason1972: That’s what it says to me too, whether it was intended or not. It means don’t use those stats to say much of anything important. It’s novelty, not strong evidence.

  21. Good for Phipps, he crushed that ball and fouled off some pitches to get the one he took for a ride.

    I was having my own heart palpitations in the 7th, as Homer’s adventures were directly correlated with my fantasy’s teams playoff interests. Losing the QS left it to percentage points between me and the other guy in OBA in the pitching category. I prevailed by one hundreth of a point. Whew. Playoffs are a crapshoot indeed. :D

  22. Can anyone direct me to a link that explains in basic terms why the higher seeds have to start the playoffs on the road? I can’t seem to find any logical reason outside Bud and MLB are idiots.

    • Can anyone direct me to a link that explains in basic terms why the higher seeds have to start the playoffs on the road? I can’t seem to find any logical reason outside Bud and MLB are idiots.

      No link, but the reason is that the schedule was determined first, then the 2nd wild card was added later. That left no room in the schedule to play a 2-2-1 LDS round. Next year, they will play with a 2nd wildcard and leave room in the schedule for a 2-2-1 first round.

      • No link, but the reason is that the schedule was determined first, then the 2nd wild card was added later. That left no room in the schedule to play a 2-2-1 LDS round. Next year, they will play with a 2nd wildcard and leave room in the schedule for a 2-2-1 first round.

        What a crock of crap. How could they not travel? They have airplanes that fly pretty fast. This is a joke. Again more proof Bud needs to be removed.

        • What a crock of crap.How could they not travel?They have airplanes that fly pretty fast.This is a joke.Again more proof Bud needs to be removed.

          The TV scheduling contracts were all in place too.

          It’s just a one-year stopgap.

  23. @BearcatNation: I have been truly excited about Phipps for a while – that is why when an Enquirer reporter stated that Ludwick may leave after this year I wasn’t really disappointed. Phipps is a stud – who could be a terror and another George Foster if he is coached properly. He struggled at AAA for the 1st half of 2012 – and then picked it up in 2nd half. But you can definitely see the talent – this kid is a real stud!

    • I’m more concerned about the Cardinals’ hitting than their pitching. Using up the best pitcher seems more detrimental to other teams (like the Braves) than it does do the Cardinals. The Reds win with pitching and defense, but I’m concerned about the Reds’ ability to handle some of the Cardinals hitters. The Nationals, Giants, and Braves are all likely candidates for low scoring series.

      post immediately as a way to demonstrate the meaninglessness of the Stubbs stat, so I am

      If the Reds start the playoffs on the road won’t they have to clinch the NLDS at home, at GABP? Fine with me.

      @Number 14: You posted meaningless stats that justify why several guys remain in the lineup, particularly for Phillips, Rolen, and Hanigan, and it seems strange that people also use similar stats against Stubbs.

      @BearcatNation: I have been truly excited about Phipps for a while – that is why when an Enquirer reporter stated that Ludwick may leave after this year I wasn’t really disappointed.Phipps is a stud – who could be a terror and another George Foster if he is coached properly.He struggled at AAA for the 1st half of 2012 – and then picked it up in 2nd half.But you can definitely see the talent – this kid is a real stud!

      Denis Phipps hit .221 in 377 ABs in AAA this season. .237 in the minors in 2009, .249 in 2010, .346 during a breakout season in 2011, but 2012 was a step backwards and the worst year of his career. I hope you’re kidding – Phipps is a terrible hitter who is headed back to AAA at age 26. The only way he can help the Reds is as trade bait.

  24. @pinson343: Heisey doesn’t have quite the talent that Stubbs does – but Heisey is also a gamer (Pete Rose type gamer) – unlike Stubbs who even though he has tremendous talent simply does not have his head in the game at all. When Stubbs is playing in a game, I can always trust he will make at least 1 gaffe – like getting picked off first which was the turning point in last night’s game). Even though he graduated college with honors, he has absolutely no baseball smarts!

  25. @rfay00: Exactly, might as well come out with the Reds record during full moons or on Friday the 13ths. Stubbs defense is above average and better than any replacement (Heisey, Paul, etc.) that we have on the roster. If we go far in the playoffs it will be because of our defense/pitching. That is this team’s #1 strength.

  26. Personally, I’d rather face the Cards or Braves in the first round.

    Why? 2 reasons:

    1. They are close to home. The Reds typically do not do well on the West Coast, either because of the time difference or those cavernous stadiums out there. If they have to start on the road, better it be a team close to home.

    2. No matter who the Reds face, they will have to burn their best pitcher in the WC play-in game, so the Reds can throw Cueto at their #2. Additionally, the Reds should, theoretically, be better rested.

    So give me that WC team instead of the Giants in the first round. If we have to face the Giants best pitchers at the start of a series, better in be at GABP where the Reds have a decided advantage. In a short series, momentum is everything.

  27. I agree Reds should be pushing for the #1 spot as well..

    Giants clinched the same day the Reds did. So they will be just as rested as the Reds come time for the playoff games.

    Not only will the WC team have used up their best pitcher for the WC play in game, but they will have battled to the end of the season expending energy and resources to win even the rights to that spot.

    Plus it will give the Reds home field advantage WHEN we beat them (whomever they end up being) for the NLDS

    • I agree Reds should be pushing for the #1 spot as well..

      Giants clinched the same day the Reds did. So they will be just as rested as the Reds come time for the playoff games.

      Not only will the WC team have used up their best pitcher for the WC play in game, but they will have battled to the end of the season expending energy and resources to win even the rights to that spot.

      Plus it will give the Reds home field advantage WHEN we beat them (whomever they end up being) for the NLDS

      It will be interesting to see who the cards and braves pitch in that game.

  28. Oh, also, there are rules in the CBA that prevent day games after night games. Eliminating travel days would seriously handcuff the playoff schedule.

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