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Today, we have an argument in three parts. We know who the primary catcher will be, but there is room for debate over who will be number two. But you might be asking, why choose? Why not carry both? We’ve covered that, too. Our intrepid leader, Chad Dotson makes the case for Mesoraco and I take on Navarro.
Why Mesoraco?
Unless you think Navarro’s .318/.326/.523 line in 44 ABs is sustainable, Devin Mesoraco is the easy call. For whatever reason, I’m not sure the Reds are going to see it that way, however.
Let’s get defense out of the way first, since I expect that to be much of the justification for choosing Navarro on the post-season roster over Mesoraco. There’s little evidence that Navarro is much of a defensive catcher. His arm is average (at best), and as Baseball Prospectus noted, he has an above-average rate of wild pitches and passed balls, while being below average at “pitch framing.”
Certainly, Mesoraco is not Johnny Bench behind the plate, but he has a strong arm and has received high marks for his continuing improvement as a receiver. At the very least, the defense is a wash, in my opinion.
There’s no question that Mesoraco’s bat has not been good during this, his rookie campaign. He’s “hitting” at a .212/.288/.352, with just 5 HR and 14 RBI in 165 ABs, and a 69 OPS+ is almost Taveras-like (okay, now I’m just being silly). Mesoraco’s value, however, is not based on what he has done, but what he can do. There’s a reason Mesoraco was considered an uber-prospect by everyone. He showed a wonderful combination of power and patience in his minor league career. No, he hasn’t demonstrated that in the big leagues yet, but he’s only had 215 ABs. I still contend that he’s a good bet to start living up to those expectations at any moment.
Meanwhile, Navarro had one legitimately good year, at age 24 (in 2008, when he made the All-Star team). Since then, however, Navarro has posted OPS+ figures of 54, 49, 68. I don’t believe that Navarro’s 44 AB outburst in 2012 is enough to make me think he’s more deserving of a playoff spot, especially if there’s no discernible difference defensively (alliteration alert!). (And no, the fact that Navarro once played in a post-season doesn’t make me pause here; I’m not sure the previous playoff experience of the backup catcher matters at all.)
Two final points:
First, you are late in a game, and you need a right-handed pinch hitter. Who would you prefer to see striding to the plate? Navarro or Mesoraco? Give me the guy who has patience, and who has a little pop in his bat. (I think that’s Mesoraco, in case you didn’t read the first few paragraphs above.)
Finally, Devin Mesoraco is the future star catcher of the Cincinnati Reds. I think that should earn him consideration when this decision is made. Mesoraco has a chance to be the starter on some excellent Reds teams of the future. Navarro is a journeyman. To me, the choice is simple. Fortunately for us all, much smarter people than I will be making all these decisions.
Why Navarro?
Like it or not Ryan Hanigan is the number one catcher. He has been all year, and he’s played well. He’s a defensive dynamo, pitchers love throwing to him, and he gets on base. The one rub on Hanigan, is that he tires easily, which is why you need someone to back him up.
Except in the postseason.
Once the postseason starts, the Reds will never play more than three games in a row without a day off. Given that, there’s no reason to ever start the backup catcher. Hanigan should, and will, start every postseason game.
But you have to have a second catcher, right? Injuries happen, and in case of emergency, you have to have someone ready to take over. You don’t count on that, though. That is, you don’t put someone on the postseason roster because another player might get hurt. You put someone on the roster because they fit a role you need to fill. That player is Dioner Navarro.
I love Devin Mesoraco, I do. I thought he should have gotten more playing time during the regular season, and I don’t think he should have been sent down. But Mesoraco shouldn’t be on the postseason roster because he’s right handed.
Dioner Navarro is a switch hitter, which means, assuming the Reds keep Xavier Paul around, he will be one of only two left handed bats on the bench. The one knock on the Reds is that they are too right-handed, why exacerbate the problem?
With their second catcher (and really, there’s no reason to waste a roster spot carrying two guys who shouldn’t be expected to hit much), the Reds need someone who can be a bat off the bench in an emergency. Ideally, that player should be left handed. Dioner Navarros is left handed, and he’s the one who should get the roster spot.
Another Choice?
There is a chance the Reds will carry three catchers. This is an interesting question because neither Mesoraco nor Navarro is likely to play much of a role if Dusty is afraid to use them as pinch hitters. If you believe that either of these players is better than whoever they’d be likely to carry on the bench if they went with two catchers and that that player shouldn’t be deployed because of the injury risk to Hanigan (making them, effectively, an emergency-only catcher), then you have to carry both.
So what do you guys think?
Intensity, thats what Hanigan brings, and i hope he plays every postseason game… which i hope is more than 3
One argument I would add to Chad’s compelling case is that Mesoraco has more experience catching the Reds pitchers. I’m kind of agnostic on this issue overall. Hanigan is going to get all the playing time. It’s a sad reflection on our bench options that the Reds have to choose between Navarro and Mesoraco (and maybe both!) for pinch hitting roles.
And there it is.
Looking at the 3 catcher possibility, there are 4 postseason bench spots, using the givens from the original thread:
– 14 position players
– the starting 8
– plus Frazier and Heisey
– 4 open spots
One of those 4 will clearly be a 2nd catcher.
Of the remaining 3, I think the Reds have limited themselves to the choices of Paul, Cairo, Valdez, and a 3rd catcher. If they wanted Rodriguez or Gregorius or anyone else from the September callups to be on the postseason roster, I think they’d be giving them more playing time. Maybe something changes & after the Reds clinch they go with Gregorius or Rodriguez most days. But at this point, it doesn’t look that way.
If the remaining 3 spots are limited to Paul, Cairo, Valdez and a 3rd catcher, is the 3rd catcher going to be a better PH option than the PH/defensive versatility option of any of the other 3 players. I don’t think there is a clear answer to that.
Corky Miller.
<__> <__>
@Greg Dafler:
I think there’s no doubt that the Reds will add some XP to their postseason lineup. 10-29 off the bench is more than worth it.
Hanigan will get most of the playing time at C in the playoffs. Navarro will be his backup. Mesoraco’s confidence is shot right now. I don’t see him on any post-season rosters. Mesoraco will need to start out at AAA next year just to get his head right again, get his confidence built back up.
For a backup C for 2013, my suggestion would be to trade this winter for the Phillies backup, backup C Eric Kratz. He is a big strong guy with a strong arm. He’s 6’4″ and 255. He would fit in well hitting in GABP. He has 9 HR’s in 130 AB’s (.254 Avg.) this year. Pretty good. Could be even better in GABP. On the down side, he is a 32-year old rookie this year. But he has played well for the Philies in Cruz’s absence.
No this should not be an option. Mes should either be on the big club, or traded. If he can’t beat out Eric Kratz then he isn’t the future catcher of the Reds like most think. The only thing that is going to make this kid better is by playing in the big league and getting more then 215 AB’s to prove himself.
On the topic the playoff roster I’m for the three catcher approach like most everyone else. It just makes the most sense to me. You get a power bat off the bench and you’re not wasting your backup catcher in the process.
I do agree. Just because he was a rookie doesn’t mean he needs to be brought in slowly. Cozart did alright. Frazier did great. They didn’t play 2 of every 5 games. Some people actually learn better when they do things, actually playing, rather than just sitting there.
Since my take didn’t make the cut, I’ll give my argument for both Navarro and Meseraco here:
Keeping 3 catchers on the post-season roster provides more bench flexibility. Oddly enough, the emergence of Navarro as a hitter has made adding Mesoraco a necessity. Navarro can be used as a pinch hitter without wasting the backup catcher. Should an injury at catcher happen that demands a change during a game, having a third catcher will prove a blessing. And finally, the cost of adding a third catcher is not prohibitive. It means leaving Miguel Cairo off the roster. Not the end of the world. And as noted yesterday, it would need to be Cairo, not Valdez, simply because Valdez can cover at more infield positions in a pinch.
Of course, the chances of Baker leaving Miguel off the playoff roster seem slim to me, but it should be done, nevertheless.
I’m with Richard above, same argument and everything. I like the 3 catchers and leave Cairo off the roster. Don’t think it will happen, I expect them to leave Meso out.
Don’t know why people are talking about Valdez. He’s a lock. It’s either him or Gregorius as the backup SS, and no way the Reds will go with Gregorius in the post season, based on inexperience alone.
Count me in on the 3 catchers on the roster. Mostly because Cairo has nothing to offer. He’s not a good choice for PH and the Reds don’t need another 1B/3B in the mix with Votto/Rolen/Frazier.
I’d go with Navarro for his bat and switch-hitting ability alone. I understand that he only has 44 AB’s at the MLB level, but the guy was hitting well at L-ville too all year. Mesoraco looks lost and has lost all semblance of confidence at the plate. I don’t trust him to have good AB’s at this point, which as a PH could be devastating.
Now if the argument is Meso or Cairo…then there is a debate. Because it’s not really Meso’s bat vs Cairo’s bat…it become Navarro’s bat against Cairo’s bat as Meso would become the “emergency” catcher allowing Navarro to PH duties. At the same time, in general I trust Cairo to put the bat on the ball, or to execute small ball, which Dusty is prone to use, better than some other options. Cairo is a good baserunner, if not especially fast, and he can play more than one position in the field. Then there is the post season experience, which I don’t believe should be the sole basis for a decision, but it is one of many factors.
If it were up to me, I’d take both because I believe Navarro offers a better PH option than Cairo, and it wouldn’t use the backup catcher. But also if it were up to me I’d take Gregorious over Valdez too. So we’ll see.
This is, again, a place where I don’t think we can go wrong. Take him, don’t take him, who would be our options if we don’t take him, I do believe we would be just as strong either way. And, that is a good thing.
IMO, I would take Devin because I believe that opens Navarro up for being a pinch hitter (since he’s a switch hitter). If the matchup calls that Navarro would catch, also, all the better. And, we still have a catcher on the bench after that with some power. I would probably look to play Hanigan as much as possible, though.
I hate to say it, but I think that Cairo is the odd man out here. I would rather take 3 catchers, XPaul, and Valdez as backup shortstop.
I hate to say it because I like Cairo, and he was good until this year, but I just don’t see what role he plays on the postseason roster that isn’t already played better by Frazier or Navarro.
@Richard Fitch: Yes, Dusty is a players manager and Cairo has probably ‘earned’ his spot by being present this year.
This team needs 2 things from it’s bench: (1) backup defenders. That role is fulfilled with just three/four players: Heisey, Frazier, Valdez/Gregorious, Mes (2) Pinch hitters: XP and Navarro would be ideal. Cairo does not contribute well in either category at this point in his career even though I still love the guy as a Red.
Now that Hanigan is catching Bailey as well, one would think he’ll get the call every game. You’re only talking a 5-game series at most. I’ll take Navarro simply for his pop off the bench. Mes isn’t even sniffing PT so I’ll say he’s out. I don’t think Cairo makes the cut. He’s been buried. Valdez scares me. He’s awful. Rather see Didi. I’m still wondering where & when Frazier’s going to play? We all know Dusty will go with Stubbs in CF. Good luck to all of us.
I also fall solidly in the camp that says to keep both. As was stated in the original argument, could the third catcher bring more to the table than whoever he is replacing? I think the answer is without a doubt, YES.
I agree that due to being LH, Paul is in lock status on the bench, along with Frazier and Heisey. With the way Navarro has been hitting this month, it’s clear he would be a better pinch-hitting option than Mesoraco. So he has to be pretty close to a lock, too. I also don’t see any way Valdez gets left off, since we have to have someone to back up 2B and SS, and Gregorious won’t be on the roster.
In the end, it leaves Cairo and Mes for the final spot. Both RH, both have hit poorly this year. But Cairo brings nothing to the table that isn’t already covered somewhere else. Veteran bench guy? Valdez fits that bill. Backup at 1B and 3B? Frazier obviously will be the top backup, plus Valdez could play third as well. I just see no role on the roster for Cairo.
Mes, on the other hand, could hit at least as well as Cairo if his bat was needed, plus he offers some power. But most importantly, he would free up Navarro to be a pinch-hitter in Dusty’s eyes, since he wouldn’t have to worry about the dreaded “backup catcher doomsday scenario” should heaven forbid Hanigan get hurt.
The choice is clear: keep both catchers, then shake Miggy’s hand and wish him well.
It seems like we’re in violent agreement, have all 3 catchers on the postseason roster.
I agree, which means there is no way the Reds do it.
Stupid question, but I must have missed something along the way: Wasn’t there a lot of talk a few weeks back about the fact that Mes wouldn’t be allowed on the post season roster because of the timing of his demotion? I assume by the way people are talking that that got resolved somehow?
@docmike: BCDS. I like it. The Backup Catcher Doomsday Scenario. Anyway, aren’t you forgetting that Cairo can pitch if need be? Dusty feels youcan never have too many pitchers!
Has anyone here received an eGraph solicitation from MLB?
@BenL: Yes, he can be on the playoff roster:
http://redlegnation.com/2012/08/24/2012-cincinnati-reds-playoff-roster-and-devin-mesoraco/
Problem is, despite Dusty’s words in August, Devin has only played twice since coming back up to the majors:
– Entered in the 8th as a PH on Sept 9th & finished the game.
– Entered in the 11th as a PH on Sept 10th & finished the game (14th inning)
And he looked terrible in both at bats. Worse than Willie Harris terrible. And you all want a guy with 2 terrible AB’s in September to be on the playoff roster?? It wasn’t like he was out with an injury an is just coming back. Dusty hasn’t hardly played him since his callup for a reason. I can see having Mesoraco and Gregorius on ready/alert stand-by in case of an injury. Cairo will be on the NLDS roster. On the NLCS and/or WS rosters?? We’ll have to wait and see how it shakes out.
Do I want Mesoraco to be on the playoff roster instead of Cairo? Absolutely, with no hesitation. The main reason is of course, so that it frees Dusty up to use Navarro as a pinch-hitter whenever the situation dictates it. But what if just look at each player’s individual merits? Let’s see what each of them brings to the table:
Devin’s slash line = .212/.288/.352
Miggy’s slash line = .176/.204/.272
The stats don’t lie. As bad as Mes has hit this year (and he has been bad), he’s still significantly better than Cairo. He has hit more, got on base more, and hit for more power. So if the game went deep into extras, and we had to use the last guy on the bench to pinch-hit, I would much rather bring Mes to the plate than Cairo.
In addition, Mes plays good defense at a premium position, while Cairo plays below-average defense at positions where we already have much better options. When it’s all said and done, there’s really no contest.
Take 3.
This is the proper, and most complete, analysis.
Devin’s in Baker’s doghouse for some reason, IMO.
It does seem that way. Maybe he needs to walk less.
@Greg Dafler: Thanks Greg. Actually, Now that I see it, I think I remember that post, but the rule is so confusing that I’m not sure I ever understood it
It would seem like a player should have to go on the DL in September for their spot to become available… but whatever, it works in our favor here…
I hate to say this but my vote would be Navarro over Mez. I too love Mez, would be upset if we traded him, and think he’s going to be one heck of a big-leaguer someday. Having said that, he has hands down been the most disappointing Red this year. Maybe that’s unfair to say, especially because he only played 2/5th of the time, but I’m not sure who on the Reds has been more disappointing. For those of you asking how has he been more disappointing than Valdez, Cairo, Stubbs, etc? Admittedly, I had very low expectations for those guys coming into the year. Devin, on the other hand, I had high expectations, which in and of itself may have been unfair I suppose.
I think Walt and company still plan on Mez being the catcher of the future for the Reds, but when it comes to the playoffs, you have to think short-term. Navarro has earned this spot by outplaying Devin. He looks zoned in at the plate and his switch-hitting ability is a big plus. In my humble opinion, Navarro gives the Reds a better chance to win right now.
@Bill Lack: Great comment.
@WVRedlegs: He appeared in 2 games but had 3 at-bats. His second at-bat of the Sept 10th game was when he led off the bottom of the 14th with a single and later scored the walk-off winning run.
@WVRedlegs: I agree with your point about Devin not hitting well and looking terrible in his first 2 ABs in September. But you’re forgetting his 3rd AB: later in the game of his 2nd AB, leading off the 14th inning against the Pirates and hitting a line drive single and coming around to score the winning run.
Not that one good AB will matter, and not that it should, just being fair.
@Greg Dafler: Whoops, you beat me to it.
@Greg Dafler: Just re-read your August 24 post about playoff eligibility rules. For the replacement player part of it, there’s no requirement that the replacement player be on the 40 man roster as of August 31?
This doesn’t affect Devin, just wondering.
I have to go with Navarro, because most likely Hanigan is going to catch every game and I prefer his bat over Mesoroco (right now). I would not mind carrying three catchers though.
Devin is a shell of what he is supposed to be (and perhaps was). He seems to do ok defensively, but he looks lost offensively.
Navarro has come on strong recently. If you HAVE to choose just one, you choose Navarro because he gives you above average offense and about average defense. (As opposed to Devin, who gives you above average defense and below average offense.)
Although I agree with what others have said: Ideally, you take both.
@pinson343: Nope. The replacement player just has to be in the organization on August 31. Players added to the organization in September cannot be on the playoff roster…for example, say, the Yankees sign Roger Clemens for a start this weekend. He couldn’t appear for them in the playoffs. Andy Pettite, though was in the organization on the DL, so he could appear for them in the playoffs.
I believe the example usually given here is K-Rod with the Angels. The year he pitched for them in the post-season, I believe he was in the minors & not on the 40-man roster until after Sept 1. This rule allowed him to be in the post-season with the Angels.
As was discussed some last month, the Reds could have Billy Hamilton on their post-season roster. Let’s assume that Navarro, Valdez, and XPaul are 3 of the Reds final 4 bench players. Their 4th bench player could be Mesoraco, Cairo…or Billy Hamilton. (They aren’t going to use Hamilton, of course. If they were considering that, he’d be on the September roster.) But I think the argument could still be made that the Reds should have done this. In Cairo or Mesoraco you have a player who probably won’t make an appearance or have a very limited role, whereas with Hamilton you could have multiple possible chances to use him as a pinch runner.
Anyone have an update on Cozart?
@Greg Dafler: Thanks, Greg, good stuff.
@VottoManCrush: Fay had an update yesterday. Within a week of playing.
@VottoManCrush: They said no rush to get Cozart back while in Chicago because of the cold weather.
I agree: you take 3 catchers if for no other reason than Dusty will then be comfortable using the second one to pich hit (or pinch run
What I’m not sure of is what to do next year: Ryan has shown his value, but needs a decent amount of time off. Mes. has shown that catching 40% of the time doesn’t seem to work real well for him. Maybe next year he’s more comfortable with that kind of routine. But if he’s not, and another year at AAA won’t do him any good, then what? And who/how do they arrange the non-Hanigan-but-more-than-regular-backup role?
Meso has gotten a bad deal most of the year(taken out of late-inning hitting situations, a degree of blame for Latos’ poor start this season, not really a lot of time to adjust to major league pitching, and the continued scrutiny since Grandal has gotten called up), but we’ve been winning. I wonder at what cost? I hope this doesn’t plant itself in Meso’s mind and ruin his career before it starts. I would have given that kid every chance to build confidence at the big league level as humanly possible. Once we clinch, he’ll start playing more, but he’ll have to hit well, otherwise he may not break with the club next year(if Dusty is still around and Navarro is re-upped). I’ve hated this since the end of the first week. But Hanigan has proved his worth.
In terms of the roster question, Meso is the best option in regards to the final spot. There is nothing to say that hasn’t been said in regards to this, but Meso is the clear choice. If only he were 35 or older…
I despise three catchers. But I really don’t see any alternative. Was it really that hard to add a real bat off the bench at the break?