2012 Post-season / 2012 Reds / Believe

Your Reds Postseason Roster

Okay, ladies and gentlemen (and yes, even you, you coarse scallywag), it’s time. The Reds are going to the playoffs. For the Reds to be left out would be a collapse the likes of which baseball has never seen before (yes, I remember last year; this would be much,much worse). Over the next week and a bit, we’re going to periodically roll out a number of posts on the spots around which there are, or at least should be, some debate. Today, however, we’re going to tackle the spots we know will be covered. Before we get started, note that I’m assuming the Reds will go with 11 pitchers and 14 position players as they did in 2010. If they go 12 and 13, the picture changes a little.

Sure thing position players:

C – Ryan Hanigan
1B – Joey Votto
2B – Brandon Phillips
3B – Scott Rolen
SS – Zack Cozart
LF – Ryan Ludwick
CF – Drew Stubbs
RF – Jay Bruce
OF – Chris Heisey
UT – Todd Frazier

A few caveats here: If he decided to strikeout in every at bat between now and October, I suppose it’s conceivable Stubbs could be left off the roster, but I’m not betting on it. Additionally, if Rolen’s back locks up at the wrong time, the Reds would have to take him off the roster for at least a series given that he typically takes about a week (then length of a series) to recover from those bouts.

Sure thing pitchers:

SP1 – Johnny Cueto
SP2 – Mat Latos
SP3 – Bronson Arroyo

CL – Aroldis Chapman
RP – Jonathan Broxton
RP – Sean Marshall
RP – Alfredo Simon
RP – Jose Arredondo

I still can’t believe how good Simon has been. We were all ready to mutiny when he was brought in, and things certainly started poorly, but he’s been great for most of the season.

As things stand right now, 18 of 25 roster spots are spoken for. Yes, some others are also probably pretty well determined, but we’ll have some debates and discussions anyway, just for fun. By my count, we’ll still need to fill four bench spots, one starting pitcher spot, and two relief pitchers spots.

126 thoughts on “Your Reds Postseason Roster

  1. @Chris Garber: Re: postseason rotation, it looks like they are sandwiching Arroyo between Cueto and Latos:

    The Reds flip-flopped the rotation. Instead of Mike Leake, Homer Bailey, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos, it’s now Bailey, Leake, Cueto, Arroyo and Latos.

    The reason is to separate Cueto and Latos, who have similar repertoires, with Arroyo.

    “We’ve been wanting to do it forever,” Reds manager Dusty Baker said. “We couldn’t do it until now because we didn’t have the off days.”

  2. Bench: Xavier Paul, Wilson Valdez(for bunting purposes only) Navarro, Cairo (I guess, can’t deside between him and Meso)

    SP: Bailey, but i would still keep Leake on the Roster for pinch runner/hitter in case of a long inning game.

    RP: Sam LeCure is a lock. Not sure on the rest.

  3. Long man in the bullpen. Bronson Arroyo. He can come back with little rest. Also if Bailey is the 3rd starter and struggles Arroyo comes in. There will be a short leash on these pitchers and you need guys who can pitch more than 1 inning if need be.

    Mesoraco has played himself off the roster. He catches and didn’t hit all year long. Didn’t do much in a pinch hitting role either.

    If Cingrini continues to pitch like he does don’t be surpirsed if he sees some action. May not be all three sets of series but depending on match up. The Reds can use another lefty in the pen. Arredondo doesn’t count.

    • Mesoraco has played himself off the roster. He catches and didn’t hit all year long. Didn’t do much in a pinch hitting role either.

      If Cingrini continues to pitch like he does don’t be surpirsed if he sees some action. May not be all three sets of series but depending on match up. The Reds can use another lefty in the pen. Arredondo doesn’t count.

      I’m not saying that Mes should be on the playoff roster over Navarro but to say he didn’t do much in a pinch hitting role is a bit unfair. His stats as a “sub” from baseball-reference. .600/.600/.600 in five(FIVE!) AB’s. Now not all of those are pinch hitting but he’s never had the pinch hitting role.

      If the Reds get matched up with the Phillies I would expect to see Cingrani on the roster. We’ll need every lefty pitcher we can get.

  4. @Greg Dafler: Interesting. It doesn’t matter in the 19 game scenario I laid out, but I’d prefer to have Latos get more starts than Bronson, all things being equal.

    • @Greg Dafler: Interesting.It doesn’t matter in the 19 game scenario I laid out, but I’d prefer to have Latos get more starts than Bronson, all things being equal.

      I really hate the idea that Latos is #3 and Arroyo #2. I’m not even convinced Arroyo should be starting. If he does, I like him at #4. The “separate Cueto and Latos” idea doesn’t do anything for me.

      • I really hate the idea that Latos is #3 and Arroyo #2. I’m not even convinced Arroyo should be starting. If he does, I like him at #4. The “separate Cueto and Latos” idea doesn’t do anything for me.

        It is better to have Bronson pitch in SF then in Cincy, bigger ballpark will suit him much better.

  5. Since we are pretty much set that we are playing the Giants, and with how Cueto has pitched so far this month and such, I am not sure why he gets the “nod” as the Game 1 starter, if your goal is to “win” and play the best players, would you not go with Latos in game one given how he is performing NOW and his track record vs. the Giants and the importance of getting game 1 and putting away the horror of 2010’s game 1. I think it would then be smart go with either Bronson or Homer in game two as both are much better in bigger parks/on the road. Then let Cueto go in Game 3 here at home and that way you have Latos able to go in 2 games if needed.

    • Since we are pretty much set that we are playing the Giants, and with how Cueto has pitched so far this month and such, I am not sure why he gets the “nod” as the Game 1 starter, if your goal is to “win” and play the best players, would you not go with Latos in game one given how he is performing NOW and his track record vs. the Giants and the importance of getting game 1 and putting away the horror of 2010′s game 1.

      What does it mean to “win”?

  6. @SirRibShack: Name a bunch of bad players and say Dusty likes these kind of players and Walt does too or Dusty likes these players and Walt doesn’t but he goes and gets them anyway. Either way it’s a shot at Dusty Baker liking bad veterans even though he’s never been a GM and yet he gets blamed for roster moves and bad trades constantly by many commenters on this site.

    I’ve never heard anyway say man I’m glad Dusty likes good pitchers and told Walt to go get Latos and Broxton. But I hear all the time that Paterson, Taveras, Harris, Valdez etc were all Dusty’s idea.

    To BloodyHo, you’re right I know nothing about you and have no idea if you’re racist or not but I do believe a lot of the Dusty hate is because he’s black. Sorry to point out the elephant in the room but if you don’t think this is true you’re naive.

    • @SirRibShack: Name a bunch of bad players and say Dusty likes these kind of players and Walt does too or Dusty likes these players and Walt doesn’t but he goes and gets them anyway. Either way it’s a shot at Dusty Baker liking bad veterans even though he’s never been a GM and yet he gets blamed for roster moves and bad trades constantly by many commenters on this site.

      I think you should let this go, since you’re just digging a deeper hole at this point. I suggest again, stop trying to psychoanalyze posters, and just respond directly to comments you do or don’t agree with, and discuss the merits.

      The problem with the above quote, in my mind, is that there is a very clear reason to say that some of the players are Dusty-type players. That reason is that he plays them a lot and he bats them high in the order. If Dusty was really going kicking and screaming with guys like Taveras, he wouldn’t have gotten 400+ABs in the leadoff spot when there were plenty of better options.

    • @SirRibShack: Name a bunch of bad players and say Dusty likes these kind of players and Walt does too or Dusty likes these players and Walt doesn’t but he goes and gets them anyway.Either way it’s a shot at Dusty Baker liking bad veterans even though he’s never been a GM and yet he gets blamed for roster moves and bad trades constantly by many commenters on this site.

      I’ve never heard anyway say man I’m glad Dusty likes good pitchers and told Walt to go get Latos and Broxton.But I hear all the time that Paterson, Taveras, Harris, Valdez etc were all Dusty’s idea.

      To BloodyHo, you’re right I know nothing about you and have no idea if you’re racist or not but I do believe a lot of the Dusty hate is because he’s black.Sorry to point out the elephant in the room but if you don’t think this is true you’re naive.

      @Cbus: So now all of us who don’t like the way Dusty manages a game hate black people? You’re an idiot, you know that?

    • @SirRibShack:

      To BloodyHo, you’re right I know nothing about you and have no idea if you’re racist or not but I do believe a lot of the Dusty hate is because he’s black.Sorry to point out the elephant in the room but if you don’t think this is true you’re naive.

      Dude, in a city where people like Frank Robinson, Tony Perez, Joe Morgan, George Foster, Barry Larkin, etc., are idolized? Shoot, I would live to see Joe or Barry become the manager. Where we have a black mayor? But, when Baker’s decision-making ability is:

      – how much of a chance he’s given Stubbs, Gomes, Harris
      – bunting Stubbs to second against soft tossers like Lohse on the mound
      – putting Coco out there 4 out of 5 days knowing Coco doesn’t have his good stuff
      – leading off our batting order with 2 of the worst hitters on the team, making batting orders simply based off of a batter having experience against a pitcher 3-5 years ago
      – forgetting the ball count on one of his batters he’s having sacrifice bunt
      – asking for a weather report from a manager with a history that he would, figuratively, lie to his own mother if he felt it would give him a edge during the game

      Baker shows he doesn’t have very good decision making ability. What I listed above isn’t “color”-dependent. This is “decision-making” ability-dependent. Baker may have been a good manager at one time. IMO, he is only serviceable right now. Something like a player like Cairo has been for the last several years. Teams always want someone like that. That’s why they can be around so long. Why did he spend so long in SF? Why would they consider letting go of a close friend of two of their franchise’s biggest players? Baker only lasted 4 years in Chicago. Remember the (at best) racial statement he made in Chicago.

  7. Hey, I just got informed that I was selected to buy NLDS tickets!

    How did everybody else fare?

    • Hey, I just got informed that I was selected to buy NLDS tickets!

      How did everybody else fare?

      I thought I won. The title of the email I got was “NLDS Ticket Purchase Opportunity”. What a let down when I opened that thing up.

      • I thought I won. The title of the email I got was “NLDS Ticket Purchase Opportunity”. What a let down when I opened that thing up.

        Me too! I was perturbed.

  8. Lottery loser here. Don’t mind. I want World Series tickets!!

    I agree that this boils down to two simple questions – which two pitchers do you leave off the playoff roster, and which batter do you add to the playoff roster. They don’t need five starters so they don’t need 12 pitchers. My two cents:

    Pitchers – You actually have to drop three here if you consider Cingrani as part of the mix. No Ondrusek. Pretty simple there. No Cingrani (unless it’s the Phillies then maybe, but only maybe). That leaves Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, Bailey (a lock), Leake, Chapman, Broxton, Marshall, Arredondo, LeCure, and in my opinion a slight surprise, Hoover. Which means no Simon. They just don’t need three potential long men (Leake, LeCure, Simon). I’d say if you need three long guys you’ve either played a lot of extra innings or you got your hat handed to you.

    Batters – I’ll be very surprised if they don’t simply add Navarro (or Mesoraco depending on how you want to look at it) and call it done. That means you get to keep Valdez and Cairo and add Navarro. No Gregorius. Sorry Didi, but this team will be back in the playoffs and your time will come. That makes Hanigan, Votto, Phillips, Cozart, Rolen, Ludwick, Stubbs, Bruce, Navarro, Mesoraco, Cairo, Frazier, Heisey and Paul.

    Mark it down. The only switch that might happen and wouldn’t totally surprise me is if they keep Simon and drop Leake. No way Ondrusek makes this team, and Cingrani like Gregorius will be back. Everything else is set. Of course, I could be wrong…

    • Batters – I’ll be very surprised if they don’t simply add Navarro (or Mesoraco depending on how you want to look at it) and call it done. That means you get to keep Valdez and Cairo and add Navarro. No Gregorius. Sorry Didi, but this team will be back in the playoffs and your time will come. That makes Hanigan, Votto, Phillips, Cozart, Rolen, Ludwick, Stubbs, Bruce, Navarro, Mesoraco, Cairo, Frazier, Heisey and Paul.

      You left Valdez off your list there, but said you were keeping him. I think you’re making the same mistake I did above, which was forgeting that the Reds were supposed to have to make a decision on keeping either a) X Paul, or b) Cairo or Valdez when Votto came back. But they never had to make that decision, because Votto didn’t come back in August.

      Point being, it’s a little trickier than just adding Navarro.

      If you assume Heisey and Frazier are bench locks, that means you have 10 guys selected. If you’re going to 14, that means you get to take 4 of the following 5:

      Navarro, Mesoraco, Paul, Valdez, Cairo

      Navarro is my pick for catcher, Paul for LH pinch hitter. Valdez will get picked as backup SS. That means it will probably come down to the veteran vs. the rookie, and since the rookie didn’t hit especially well, I’m guessing they go with the veteran.

  9. @renbutler: I got a chance to buy tickets!!! Woohoo. I won’t be able to make it to Cinci until game 4. Is it awful that I hope they don’t sweep?

  10. One thing I will say, there’s almost no loss any which way we go. With the 18 laid out in the headline, needing 7 more, I would look to add:

    OF – Xavier Paul
    INF – Didi
    C – Devin
    C – Navarro (as more of a pinch hitter)

    P – Homer (for starter or pen)
    P – Hoover
    P – Cingrani (really only because he’s left handed; I would like another left hander in there)

    I think they will do something different. I think Cairo instead of Didi. I think Valdez instead of Devin. I think Logan in stead of Hoover. I think Lecure instead of Cingrani.

    But, again, I believe we can do well with tweeks to any of this. I could easily understand Logan instead of Homer. Or, Logan instead of Cingrani. Or, Lecure instead of Homer. Or, with the position players, Valdez instead of Didi. Or, Cairo instead of Devin. I don’t think we lost much with anything like those. Maybe even gain something different. But, one thing’s for sure. But, it’s good to talk like this, that we can almost play, “Pick the piece to the puzzle”, rather than “Who are we going to suffer with”. Lots of talent there.

  11. For me, XPaul, Navarro, and Hoover are no brainers. I’m definitely for Devin as the emergency catcher so that Navarro can PH.

    I understand what people are saying about Cingrani being left handed, but jeez. He has 4.1 MLB innings pitched. I’m excited about the guy, but I’m not sure I want to bring him in in the playoffs just yet.

  12. Cingrani isn’t even built to get left handed hitters out. Cingrani’s change up is described as anywhere from below to above average depending on who you listen to (Welsh I believe described it as plus plus but other sources have it as below average so who the heck knows),and he doesn’t really have an effective breaking pitch. Doug Grey I believe mentioned that his splits seem to suggest he’s better at getting RH hitters out than LHs.

    But I guess this is just typical. A left handed pitcher shows up, and everyone, including the manager, wants to turn him into a LOOGY.

    • Cingrani isn’t even built to get left handed hitters out.Cingrani’s change up is described as anywhere from below to above average depending on who you listen to (Welsh I believe described it as plus plus but other sources have it as below average so who the heck knows),and he doesn’t really have an effective breaking pitch.Doug Grey I believe mentioned that his splits seem to suggest he’s better at getting RH hitters out than LHs.

      But I guess this is just typical.A left handed pitcher shows up, and everyone, including the manager, wants to turn him into a LOOGY.

      I asked the question about Cingrani’s breaking ball a while back. I’ve never seen him throw one. Does he even have one?

      • I asked the question about Cingrani’s breaking ball a while back.I’ve never seen him throw one.Does he even have one?

        I have read on several scouting sites that his fastball is a +pitch, his change a +pitch but not as strong as the FB with his slider a work in progress.

        He seems to have succeeded by varying speeds effectively on the FB while commanding it’s location very well and mixing in some effective changes. For now his slider seems to be mainly a show pitch to try and plant thoughts.

      • I asked the question about Cingrani’s breaking ball a while back. I’ve never seen him throw one. Does he even have one?

        Yes, a decent slider. But they have had Marshall tutoring him a bit on that slider. I saw him when he pitched at Rice a couple of times. The dude is for real. Just about every team Walt talked trade to in July wanted Cingrani in return.

  13. @BenL: Any chance you guys that won the OPPORTUNITY to buy tickets can buy several and sell some at face value to those of us who weren’t so lucky? StubHub is outrageous right now.

  14. @RedTitan19: Sorry, my 4 tickets will probably be spoken for, but if I find myself with an extra I would certainly like to see it in the hands of a real fan.

  15. @wally mo: You’re right. Or perhaps I can’t count! I guess this question is easier if you have an actual roster in front of you instead of just doing this by memory. And I did lose track of the fact that they didn’t drop anyone when Votto returned so there’s an extra position player in the “main” roster (not counting the purely September call-ups).

    Valdez is definitely in. That leaves Mesoraco or Cairo out. I’m guessing they’ll drop Mesoraco and keep Cairo. Mesoraco adds nothing right now – the only reasons to keep him are a) to get him some playoff experience, though I’m not sure how valuable that would be watching from the bench because his playing time will be virtually nil, and b) a third catcher in case you pinch hit or double switch with Hanigan or Navarro and your second catcher gets hurt. I would think in that case they would put Cairo behind the plate or even Super Todd. Even though Cairo isn’t worth his weight in pennies right now, I can’t believe they’d have him on their roster all year long only to leave him off a playoff team. And he does have some versatility in the field in addition to that nebulous veteran-y thing.

  16. @CFD3000: The reply button on the bottom right of a post. It doesn’t show up until you mouse over the comment you want to reply to.

  17. @SirRibShack: That’s not even close to what I said but go ahead and make things up if it makes you feel better about your argument.

    That’s exactly what you said. Most people don’t like Baker because he’s black. Did you say that, yes or no? Oh wait, I have the answers right here for you.

    “Hate to say it but I think he’s just got the wrong skin color for this town and some will never like him no matter what he accomplishes.”

    And…

    “To BloodyHo, you’re right I know nothing about you and have no idea if you’re racist or not but I do believe a lot of the Dusty hate is because he’s black. Sorry to point out the elephant in the room but if you don’t think this is true you’re naive.”

    You said this in reply to people on THIS BOARD so who are you talking about? If you aren’t talking about the fine people that come on this site to discuss our favorite team then don’t bring this garbage up on here. If disliking Dusty Baker the manager makes me a racist in your eyes so be it, I won’t lose any sleep over it.

  18. FWIW, Fay has posted his thoughts about the post-season roster.

    Interestingly, he has Hoover as a lock. Agrees with the commenters that have LeCure as a lock and Simon on the bubble.

    Among position players, includes Valdez as a lock. Has Cairo, Mes and Gregorius on the bubble. Predicts Cairo but mentions the “Mes allowing Navarro to PH” scenario.

  19. @pinson343: i’m actually feeling pretty sorry for the pirates and their fans right about now … i guess the alternative is to keep watching the giants and size up the likely first-round competition!

    • @pinson343: i’m actually feeling pretty sorry for the pirates and their fans right about now … i guess the alternative is to keep watching the giants and size up the likely first-round competition!

      they got a month further down the road than last year. I guess if one is a fan of theirs, you hope they stay the course and try to add another piece or two this off season

  20. I usually don’t get a chance to log on and read the comments on here until late at night or early in the morning so that’s why it took so long to say this. The comments from cbus concerning Dusty were offensive to the city I love and the posters on this site.

    I won’t be surprised to see the Reds go with the 25 man roster in the playoffs that brought them to where they are right now. Valdez, Cairo, Mesoraco and Leake all contributed to getting them to the playoffs. It will be frustrating to say the least to see Wilson Valdez start a game, and Drew Stubbs bat second etc. but I won’t be surprised. It has worked so far….

  21. Ok, that’s what I would want, here is what I think will happen. Let me remind people that taking guys who have been with the team all year has always been Dusty’s MO his entire career. Obviously, final judgements come down Mr. Jocketty.

    Bench: XP, Navarro, Valdez, Cairo
    Starting Pitching: Baily
    Relievers: Leake, LeCure

    The biggest regret for me is that leaves Hoover off. Honestly though, as much as I like Hoover I don’t see a name he beats out for a spot. Simon has been very good and he has been with the team all year. Leake will not be left off the roster. Valdez and Cairo have both had a horrible year, but they have “postseason experience” which may or may not be important. I don’t know. I’ve never been there. Paul is a no brainer and probably should have been on the No Doubt list. I take Navarro over Meso because, well, they want to win.

  22. @TC: U didn’t have to read it, wasn’t addressing you Mr. grammar. Shot back a quick comment to a poster.

  23. I’d like to see Paul, Navarro on the bench at least.. plus I wouldn’t be VERY surprised if the reds took LeCure and Hoover, and decided to not go with a 4th starter.. you’d have potentially 3 long-relief guys then who have been pitching really really well… plus I would REALLY like to see Cingrani brought on the roster too. Guy looks lights out.

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