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Let’s recap today’s titanic struggle….
FINAL
Houston 5
Cincinnati 1
W: E. Gonzalez (2-0)
L: J. Cueto (17-8)
BOX SCORE
POSITIVES
–Jay Bruce was 2-4 today, with a triple and an RBI. Bruce’s OPS is now over 900 (.267/.344/.558), with 33 homers and 96 RBI.
–Tony Cingrani made his major league debut, and he was very impressive. In three innings of work, the lefty only surrendered one hit and one run (a homer in the sixth inning), but struck out 5 and walked zero. He also looks like he’s fifteen years old.
–Didi Gregorius collected his first major league hit today. Congrats, Didi!
NEGATIVES
–Reds lost two of three to the hapless Houston Astros. That’s a negative.
–Johnny Cueto was roughed up a bit today, giving up four earned runs in four innings.
NOT-SO-RANDOM THOUGHTS
–Well, that wasn’t fun and I’m not going to pretend it was. The Pirates come to town next, and they are reeling. Could be a good time to crush their playoff hopes for good.
–Gregorius made his first major league start, and of course he was required to hit second, because he’s the shortstop, you know. (See Dusty’s Lineup Rules, #49)
–Magic Number:
Great debut by Tony Cingrani. After such a great minor league season it was nice to see him have such a great MLB debut. By striking out the 11th hitter of the game he got pizza and icecream for everybody at GABP and that’s a great way to win over fans in a debut. The only baserunner was a solo homerun. I like the high socks and was happy that he chose to go with them. It’s interesting to wonder where Cingrani fits in the Reds’ future plans.
Brandon Phillips, how many ABs does he get before they give up on him as a leadoff hitter and move him to batting second? At least recognize that he’s not any better at reaching base than Cozart? Hopefully Cozart can return and lead off again soon – it’s a shame to throw Phillips under the bus by tossing him into that role.
Cueto seems to have opportunities for 4 more starts this season, and he’s stuck at 3 wins away from 20.
I would hope he gets a few off games and not worry about 20 wins…
@redsfanman:
I’m sorry, but what bus fumes have you been breathing?! That is absolutely the most absurd, baseless comment I have seen on this blog, ever, and I’m including Richard from Springboro.
You are proclaiming (again) that Phillips can not hit leadoff after one bad game. I will grant you that Phillips has been struggling, but that has not been limited to just the 4 games he has been leading off. In those 4 games, Phillips hit .250 with a .333 OBP. In the 4 games before he was moved to the leadoff role, Phillips hit .176 with a .176 OBP, 0 RBI & 1 run scored. He has been struggling like a lot of the hitters after a very long, tough stretch of games.
And not better at reaching base than Cozart? I like Cozart a lot. I think he has had a heck of a rookie season, but that statement is even more absurd. Other than a very few opportunities (probably less than 20 total) to hit leadoff during his entire minor league career, he was thrust into the leadoff role. He is not a leadoff hitter. He never has been and he probably never will be. Cozart’s ML OBP is .287 and you claim he gets on base better than Phillips who has a ML OBP of .333?
Why would batting 2nd make any real difference than leadoff? You yourself said that he is who he is, I thought.
That was Didi’s second start. He filled in a couple nights ago and batted down in the order, 7th or 8th I think?
Impossible. I’ve never made a mistake.
Well that wasn’t suppose to happen.
I was thrilled with Cingrani’s performance, but he needs more seasoning at AAA before he is ready to make the move as a starting pitcher in the MLs. I like his aggressive approach to pitching, but ML hitters will start teeing off on his fastball if he doesn’t have better utility of his offspeed pitches. I expect he will be in the ML starting rotaion in 2014. The replay of Didi’s snare of the bloop line drive to LF in his previous start was the first time I had seen that play…simply stellar.
Please get Frazier some time off. If he doesn’t get some time off and rest, he will be useless and Rolen has already gone down again and may be down for the count. Maybe give Rodriguez some time at 3B and get him the experience. Having a rookie at SS & 3B hasn’t worked out too bad for the Reds so far this year, so maybe just give a couple of different rookies a chance to play while Frazier and Cozart recover completely.
I hate to kick a guy when he’s down, but please find Stubbs a place on the bench and keep him there. He’s completely lost at the plate and he is just hurting the team right now when he is playing. Let’s put the regular season behind us and if no one else has had a satisfactory performance in CF, then maybe try him again. There are plenty of other options for CF right now, starting with Heisey. Give Heisey a solid two weeks before even considering playing anyone else in CF.
You go JB! My gosh but 2013 & 2014 are starting to look scary good and 2012 may yet prove magical a year earlier than anticipated.
I’d like to say when is the last time Cueto had two outs and nobody on and ending up allowing three runs in an inning meaning almost never; but then, I believe he did the very same thing in his previous start versus the Phils…..
It looks to me like the Reds have lost their focus and are in a real doldrums right now. As I said a couple of days ago, I don’t think this is that unusual for a team which wakes up one morning and realizes the prize is all but won. Still they need some kind of a wake up call to get them back on track. Maybe a little bit of a run by the WLB….
I think they are in a slump. Nothing more or less.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: Yep, when you lose 2 of 3 at home against one of the possibly worst teams in MLB history you are probably in a slump. We can cheer-lead, rah-rah, and stay positive all we want but “thems the facts”. Doesn’t mean that tomorrow will not be the start of another great winning streak. But if this is the team that shows up in the postseason, it isn’t gonna be pretty. Slim as the chance may be.
Loss of focus, in a slump. Basically the two sides of the same coin much of the time.
And, bottom line, a poor time of year for it to happen.
Really? Really? When is a better time for this “to happen”? We are four weeks away from the postseason. If an irrelevant series vs. the AAstros with a 9.5 game lead is a “poor time” when would you rather see it? Honestly, this seems like the exact time I’d have like to see them take the foot off the gas.
Now, with the Pirates coming to town, time to put it back together.
Would you rather be going good or going bad just 4 weeks before post season play? I believe the answer is fairly obvious. Slumps are something fixed in just a week.
Just? Four weeks is an eternity in slumps. In fact, it’s basically 100% unrelated.
How did the 1990 Reds finish the season? Stumbled across the finish line, as I recall.
I meant “not fixed in just a week”, obviously.
Chances are the Pirates will come in and sweep the Reds away. When you catch a team means everything. Pirates are mega-pissed off after getting swept by the Cubs, they will take it out on the Reds. Besides, if you can’t score more than 2-3 runs a game against the minor league Astros don’t look for the Reds to score period in this upcoming series.
I’m no expert, but to say “chances are” that the Pirates will sweep the Reds is just wrong. There is not a greater 50% chance that just about any team will sweep a 3 gamer, let alone the Reds getting swept.
Agreed. If there was ever a “chances are” for a 3 game sweep, it was the Reds sweeping the Astros in the series that just ended. And we see how that one turned out.
I don’t get the logic…the Reds lose a series to the ‘stros and the Pirates got swept by the Cubs but somehow its the Pirates who have the advantage? Even if one could accurately predict how the next 3 games play out based on how the previous 3 games unfolded, how does that add up?
So because the Reds only lost 2 of 3, they’ll only be “sort of angry” compared to the Pirates? That’s not really how this game works. This team is going to be fine people. We’ll be ok. There’s a couple weeks to go.
I can’t stand the chiding of this team like they are children who are testing limits: “That’s unacceptable!” Gimmie a break.
@RedinSC: I don’t feel that strongly about jettisoning Stubbs. He is just completely lost right now and there isn’t enough time to get him straightened out. He needed to make the changes and adjustments in the last offseason. He still has value to the team as a defensive replacement and pinch runner for the playoffs. I don’t think he will be with the Reds for 2013. At the very least he needs a change of scenery. Houston might be a very good fit for him in an offseason trade after the world series. A new start close to home in a big ballpark could be just the ticket he needs.
@BloodyHo: To add to what you’re saying, BP was a superb lead off hitter last year (990 OPS in 39 games).
Last year is NOT the only time Brandon Phillips has hit leadoff. He hit .251 with a .302 OBP in 315 ABs in that role in 2010. He has similar numbers in the leadoff role so far this season. I just believe that he’s in a role where he’s destined to fail, and it’s unfortunate – I think he deserves better. In my opinion the star player and fan favorite isn’t the guy to throw under the bus. If somebody has to be placed in a position to fail stick with the rookie who fans continue to blindly support (Cozart). Being better than Zack Cozart doesn’t make Phillips a good leadoff hitter.
This is, frankly, a misleading argument.
Brandon Phillips: career .335 OBP; career .338 OBP in the leadoff spot. If you’re going to include his lousy 2010, I’m going to include all of his other years.
In fact, his OBP in all of the first 4 spots is relatively close to his career OBP. He’s 20 points worse if he bats in the 6 or 8 spot. I’m not sure what that tells us; he’s not batting there anyways. He’s horrible in the #9 spot, so we won’t bat him there and bat the pitcher leadoff. (Of course, that’s from his bad time in Cleveland.)
So what exactly is the point here? How is Phillips being thrown under the bus, as you say? He is a fine choice for leadoff on this particular team. No, he’s not an ideal leadoff hitter, as I’d rather see a guy with a .350-.360 OBP, but the Reds’ version of that is a catcher, and that ain’t happening with the Reds’ manager. How is Phillips “destined to fail” as a leadoff hitter?
Great recap.
As others have stated, the concern is that the Reds are flagging as the post-season approaches. Cueto looked stoned today, frankly; his head certainly wasn’t in GABP. Frazier is on fumes, Lutwick has cooled off; Cozart is injured and Stubbs is what, lost? And as for our vaunted bullpen . . . Looks like Marshall, Broxton and Chapman, whether they are ready and focused or not.
We are comfortably ahead right now. I get that. But that could also be the problem right now.
How did you figure out Cueto had his head out of the game?
All you negative nellies need to get a grip on reality.
1. The Reds have had a better record over the past 30 days than the Cardinals, Harpers, Braves, and Pirates.
2. This is not “right before the postseason” – that is four weeks away.
3. The Reds have the largest lead in any division. Going into today they had their largest lead of the year.
4. If the Reds weren’t 100% motivated in a sleepy, irrelevant series against the hapless Houston AAstros, who cares?
It’s like you guys aren’t happy unless you are pushing the panic button about something. Not a lot of fun to read. I wish I had a nickel for every time someone here predicted the Reds were going to get swept or would collapse. One person has had the Reds out of first place by now several times.
Furthest from the truth, Steve. This just isn’t a good time of the year to go into a slump.
If this was the last week of the season, I might agree with you (if someone could show some statistics that link how hot a team is at the end of the season and in the postseason – otherwise it’s just unsupported conjecture).
But this is not the last week of the season. It’s barely the last month of the season. The postseason won’t start for the Reds until Oct 6/7. You really think they way they are playing against the AAstros on Sept 7-9 is related to how they will play on Oct 6?
It takes a real pessimism – looking for the worst angle possible – to honestly believe that.
All true, Steve, but you have to admit, offensively, they’ve been pretty bad for the last 10 days or so…though I tend to believe it’s just the ebb and flow of a long season…
Wow…talk about blowing a loss out of porportion…
You guys who have adopted Drew Stubbs as your whipping boy, going into today, here were the Reds with worse OBP in September than Drew Stubbs (.294):
Ryan Ludwick .292
Brandon Phillips .290
Todd Frazier .286
Ryan Hanigan .278
Scott Rolen .182
Zack Cozart .154
I agree that the Reds have looked a little listless this month, and I sortof wonder if it was a great idea to have so meant September callups, and to get them all into games – it feels like spring training out there.
But but but, I’m not at all worried about this. The 1990 Reds were 14-15 in September. Hell, they were 2 games over .500 after May.
Obviously, I didn’t see Chris’ post before I mentioned the 1990 Reds. Still, this is precisely why I just can’t get worked up.
If they get no-hit in the first game of the playoffs, I’ll start to get worried.
As if something like that could happen…
is it so unreasonable to chalk this up to a bad outing by Cueto and nothing more? i mean this is professional baseball teams are gonna hit and sometimes they hit you’re best, you cant be perfect every time out. Unless your Chris Carpenter and your children have nightmares if you play poorly
@steveschoen: They’re 3-5 this month. Marshall blew one game and Chapman another. Calm down, for goodness sake.
Didn’t the 90 team play like .500 ish ball after the all star break?
Yesterday I watched the MSU Spartans dismantle Central Michigan. This was not at all surprising given the ranks of the two teams. I was curious how some of our younger players would play, but otherwise I probably wouldn’t have tuned in. College football is like this. A top team will beat a lower ranked team (almost) every single time. There are about ten games a year, and if you lose even one it’s time to freak out. This makes for really exciting matchups between top teams, but makes games like yesterday’s sort of dull.
One of the things I like about baseball is that the outcome of any given game is not predecided. The uncertainty of the outcome, combined with the fact that a baseball game is never over until the last out, makes for a really suspenseful game. Can you imagine watching a 162-game season of Alabama football knowing full well that they would only lose 5 or maybe 10 games? It would be incredibly boring.
The other side of the unpredictability of baseball is that sometimes good teams lose to bad teams. Sometimes even a whole series. It’s the price you pay for a suspenseful game. It doesn’t necessarily mean that the team isn’t trying or that they’re losing focus or slumping or anything. In a game where the difference between a win and a loss is usually one or two big innings, it just happens. Cueto had a bad day. Oh well. He’s been pretty good this year, and he’ll get another shot and he’ll probably win next time around. The same can be said of the Reds.
Let me just say this again: Tony Cingrani looked really, really good in his major league debut today. Can’t wait to see him in the Reds rotation.
I did not see more than his first inning. Did he show a breaking ball? I ask because if he’s fastball/change, there’s no chance he’d be a LOOGY in the postseason.
Even if he does, he really looks completely like a starter-type pitcher, not a relief type.
You can not lose 2 out of 3 at home to the Houston Astros who may need be the worst team in MLB history, its not acceptiable. Bottom Line, this offense needs to get it going, I sure hope this is just a blimp on the radar.
Why can’t you…
Well, it has been a very good year.
@dn4192: That Astros team is maybee the worst team in history, hell when was the last time they won a series. June, The Reds will be playing much better competition in October.
Yes they will, and that is still 25+ games away
Nice to see the over-reactors and gun-jumpers out in force.
Gotta love Cincinnati.
With Bud Selig screwing up the playoff schedule this yr, the highest seeded team starts out on the road, Would Dusty use Arroyo on the road in game 2 or would he start cueto latos game 1 game 2.
Start Bailey on the road.
I think we can see why Cingrani was on Walt’s “Untouchables” list at the trade deadline along with Hamilton. I knew about him in college and was ecstatic when the Reds drafted him. Don’t rush him. He needs a little more seasoning at AAA next year. He’s going to be a good one. I just hope the Reds keep him as a starter and not move him back to the bullpen.
Here is a question.. Think Cingrani is in the rotation next year? And if so Chapman too? Where does that leave the other starters?
I think a middle course is sensible here. It is not unusual for teams teams to struggle when they are on the threshold (very) early; and the 1990 World Champions have been put forward as a prime example.
On the other hand there are teams like the 2011 Braves who never get it back and fold.
So I think caution but not panic or hand wringing is well suited for the situation if I had a hand in running the team.
Once the horse was out of the barn today, I liked that Dusty used the call ups instead of the guys on the bench who were sitting out from playing yesterday. Treat it like a spring game rather than the deciding game of play off series. Hope he told everybody to go home, have a relaxed evening and come after the Pirates tomorrow.
There are a multitude of teams like the 1990 Reds. How you play down the stretch when you are way ahead, as far as I know there’s no evidence it affects your playoff success.
On the other hand, there are very, very few teams like the 2011 Braves. The ’64 Phillies, yes. But huge folds are very rare.
I agree that Cingrani needs to go back to the minors, presumably to AAA, to work on breaking pitches based on what I’ve read in scouting reports, but what we saw in his debut was very promising. Will he be in the rotation next season? This is an organization that didn’t even make Mike Leake pitch in the minors and gave him rotation spot when he was ready, we’ll see how Cingrani does during spring training.
I think Chapman is entrenched as the Reds’ closer and Tony Cingrani’s promise has only decreased the pressure to convert Chapman to the rotation.
Where does this leave the other starters? Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, Bailey, and Leake are all under contract to return next season but most teams need more than 5 starting pitchers to get through 162 games. I think Cingrani will enter next season as 6th on the depth chart, replacing Jeff Francis and surpassing Todd Redmond. If they desperately need to trade one of them next year to make room… well… I think they can wait until next year. If an injury forces the 2013 Reds to turn to top prospect Tony Cingrani, fine, throw a party, he will be received much better than Jeff Francis probably would have been this year.
Nearly every single one of your posts is condescending towards Reds fans, about how they receive player X poorly, or how they favor players stupidly. It’s quite interesting. You love the Reds and hate Reds fans?
In terms of Francis, his 2012 is practically identical to Leake; I’d say he’s pitching a bit better, in fact, given the great Reds defense behind Leake. Nothing wrong with Francis as a 5th starter who gets punted off of your playoff roster.
I don’t think that post about Cingrani and the Reds’ rotation was condescending towards anybody (except maybe towards Jeff Francis), several people posted questions like “where does this leave the rotation next season?” after seeing Cingrani pitch, and I gave an educated guess or opinion.
Jeff Francis, it’s nice that he has had a successful season since leaving the Reds, but he was brought in as a contingency plan in case of an injury, nothing else. I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say that Reds fans would be more excited to see a successful top prospect enter the rotation than they would be for a veteran #5 starter who arrived on a minor league contract (check out how much better Didi Gregorius is received than Wilson Valdez). Either way, for 2013 Jeff Francis is gone and Tony Cingrani is in the Reds organization.
@OhioJim: I tend to agree, you just can lose 2 out of 3 to the Astros at home, who havent won a series since June probably. They need to refocus and the offense has to get out of this funk.
@OhioJim:
My primary concern is that the Reds don’t have a lot of veteran leadership on the field who have been through these last month doldrums.
It is hard to debate against that when Rolen is healthy and on the field, this Reds team is a much better team even beyond his physical contributions.
And they were playing like crap when Rolen was on the field the last week or so. I don’t see how this is a veteran leadership issue. The team’s in a slump. They overachieved incredibly while Votto was out. Now they’re coming back to earth a bit, and slumping.
Better to go thru a September funk with nearly a 10 game lead, than to go into one in October when its win or go home. But I would like to see that “Magic Number” reduced to zero sooner rather than later.
The larger issue with Brandon Phillips in any spot high in the order (and it’s not like he’s not valuable) is that he’s overrated as a hitter. He’s the 5th best offensive player this year on this team, after Votto, Bruce, Ludwick, and Frazier. He’s never likely to be more than an above average offensive player because he walks at a rate similar to Wilson Valdez, and his power is not enough to compensate. He’s not young, and he’s been pretty darn consistent over his career. It’d be surprising to see him put up a really great offensive season.
Because his defense is great, analysts overrate his offensive ability. The Reds paid him because of his defense plus his above-average offense from the 2B position.
Hitting leadoff for the Reds has just been a revolving door of disgrace and I think Phillips deserves better. We’ll just have to wait and see if he puts up the .250 average and .300 OBP (as he did in the role both in 2010 and so far this season), .400+ obp of last season, or something in-between in the leadoff spot. He has a realistic chance to hit .300 again this season but by batting leadoff I think he’s sacrificing any chance of that happening, which is a shame. Brandon Phillips isn’t a good leadoff hitter, he isn’t a solution to hit leadoff, he’s just another guy I expect to see struggle.
Is Brandon Phillips overrated as a hitter? No, I think his flexibility and versatility is a huge asset, although it keeps him from putting up big numbers by shifting between roles. I think something that complicates things for him is how he is continually moved around the lineup into different roles with different expectations placed upon him. He started this season needing to reach base and use his speed at leadoff. A month later he was hitting 4th, a big bat responsible for driving in runs. Then he replaced Votto hitting 3rd, as the big bat in the middle of the lineup. Now he’s no longer a big bat, suddenly he needs to focus on getting on base and stealing bases instead of driving in runs or hitting homeruns.
Brandon Phillips’ skills are best suited for hitting second in the order, in front of Joey Votto, and I think most people would agree. I think it’s best to keep him there, where he gets the boost of hitting in front of Votto rather than that leadoff curse Reds hitters face. At this rate I think they should be building the lineup around Phillips, not the other way around. Let him hit second in the order and he’ll be one of the best #2 hitters in baseball (as opposed to a mediocre fill-in at #1, 3, or 4). It’s great that he’s a team player and willing to make sacrifices, but the Reds should have some respect for him. I think the Red are better off sticking with Cozart leading off and giving Phillips an opportunity to excel hitting second.
Dusty has 49 rules when it comes to lineup construction? I think you’re giving him too much credit.
@steveschoen:
The Reds worst losing streak this year was five games (Aug 5th – 9th). They won seven of their next eight games. It’s only one data point, yes, but what’s your evidence that slumps require a certain amount of time to break?
What’s your evidence that that slumps can be turned around in just one game and wouldn’t need a least a week to confirm a team isn’t out of a slump? You just gave an example that proved my point.
Wh-What?????
I’m completely confused by that comment/logic, also.
I am not really worried. This is a streaky team and they are going to the playoffs. They’ll either get on a good streak then or they’ll go home early. The seasons will change and 2013 will come around. It’s baseball.
@redsfanman: So the problem is that the lead off spot is cursed? I see…
BP has good career numbers as a lead off hitter, as pointed out above. His numbers batting second are ever so slightly worse. I wouldn’t hesitate to bat him in either spot, nor third, fourth, or fifth. It seems like you’re inventing a problem where there is none.
Ugly series by good team. Lost the last two series at home against losing teams that actually play a little better on the road. The Pirates don’t fit that mold.
This is going to sound extraordinarily pessimistic, but it’s not meant to be at all. I hope that the Reds don’t go on a tear and finish out the year overly strong. I hope the WLB’s make a bit of a run (no closer than 4 back); and the Reds sort of have to pick up their game and run. If they close out the division to early, I think focus could be an issue going into that first October series.
On a related note, take a chill pill guys. The Reds… they’re winning the division. By a lot. One bad game, does not a season make.
I know as fans we’re quick to jump on the bandwagon of the great minor league player who we haven’t seen disappoint us yet, but is Cingrani a realistic option for the playoff bullpen?
@Greg Dafler:
As impressive as Cingrani has been during his short professional career, nope. Let’s not experiment during the playoffs. That’s simply a bad idea.
The Bucos are 5 games over .500 right now and come to GABP for a 3 game series. Anyone who thinks the Reds have been struggling lately, better take a close look at the Bucos and thank your lucky stars we are Reds fans rather than Bucos fans. They could be a mere 2 games over .500 when they leave GABP and head to Chicago to play the Stupid Cubbies, who just swept them in a 3 game series, and the Brew Crew, who are playing as tough as anyone right now.
I wouldn’t mind having Cutch in a Reds’ uniform (not going to happen, but it’s a nice thought), but I’m really glad I’m a Reds’ fan and not a Bucos’ fan.
@BloodyHo: Agreed. It’s too early to experiment. Yes, he was very effective in 3 MLB innings, but he had the advantage of surprise. As Chris Welsh pointed out repeatedly, his delivery is very deceptive: his easy arm motion doesn’t suggest the speed of his fastball. The Astros probably hadn’t been watching tape on him, but if he’s on the playoff roster you can expect our opponent will, and his advantage might go away really quickly. Our bullpen has been a team strength, plus you add two starting pitchers to the mix. Why take a risk?
Oops. The above comment reference Cingroni.
@Greg Dafler:
I don’t see that happening, unless Bill Bray is just completely out of the mix. It would give an additional LH reliever in the pen. But with at least one starting pitcher either being moved to the pen or not even on the NLDS or NLCS rosters, I don’t think there will be room in the pen form him.
After the Reds clinch, give him a start to see what he can do in that regard. The guy only has had a handful of starts at the AA level.
On the other hand, he was a very good reliever in college. And if he’s pitching better than say Ondrusek or Le Cure or whomever, why not put the best 7 or 8 relievers you have out here.
@RiverCity Redleg: I like the idea of some Ph.D’s going over the stats, consulting with their colleagues in Europe, and getting back to the team: Confirm, slump is over.
@WVRedlegs: I believe over the weekend that they announced the Bray is shut down for the year. So, Bill’s not an option in the playoffs.
I know the Brewers are playing some good baseball right now, but the Cards are in no better shape. The Brewers just took 2 from the Cards at home. In fact the fact that the Cards are still in the second wildcard position just shows that this is not an uncommon occurance for teams at the end of the season. The Pirates and Dodgers have basically lost on the same days as the Cards and then you have the Yankees struggling as well.
The Cards have a huge west coast trip coming up against the Dodgers and the Padres. The way the Padres have been playing it wouldn’t suprise me if they have a better shot at sweeping the Cards than the Dodgers do. Yes this slump is frustrating, but it’s really not all that uncommon and these teams that are slumping seem to be losing against “bad” teams (Dodgers losing to the Padres, Pirates losing to the Cubs, and Cards losing to the Brewers).
@redsfanman: Just whiplash trying to understand this. Time will tell whether Phillips has a .300 OBP like hia bad year or a .350 OBP like last year? How about he has a .335 OBP? I.e., his career norm.
What is the difference between hitting #1 and #2? You say he’s a terrible leadoff option but one of the best #2 hitters in baseball? Why? What does a #2 hitter do that a #1 hitter doesn’t? Usually people say bunt, have patient ABs to let the leadoff guy steal if he’s fast, and hit behind the runner. Phillips won’t be bunting, he’s not patient. He does hit to RF a reasonable amount.
On this team the job of the #1 and #2 hitters both is to get on stupid 1st base so Votto can get some RBIs. The idea that Phillips will be terrible in one spot and great in the other is beyond me.
Phillips is overrated as a hitter. OBP .335, and SLG of .450 is a typical year. That’s pretty good for a 2B, but nowhere near great. That he can put up the same stats in the 1, 2, 3, or 4 spots just doesn’t seem remarkable to me.
You may notice that all Reds hitters seem to do better hitting second in the order than they do leadoff, and that trend has continued for many years. What’s the difference, what’s the benefit of hitting right in front of Joey Votto? I’m not sure, but there IS a difference if you look into the numbers.
2012 Leadoff OBP: Phillips .279, Cozart .261, Heisey .234, Stubbs .237.
2012 Hitting #2 OBP: Cozart .416, Heisey .344, Stubbs .298.
Something that I don’t expect as much of out of a #2 hitter is base stealing. Brandon Phillips has missed a bunch of games with leg injuries and I’d prefer NOT to see him try to steal bases – he’s not a good base stealer (151 career stolen bases with 58 caught stealings) and I’m concerned that he’ll re-injure himself. As long as he’s being asked to lead off I expect him to want to steal bases – listen to how proud of himself he is when he talks.
I think Phillips has a great opportunity to put up great numbers and hit over .300 for the season if he hits second in front of Joey Votto. If he hits leadoff I expect an OBP around or under .300, as we have come to expect from Cozart. It is important that the #1 and/or #2 hitters reach base in front of Joey Votto so at least put ONE of them in a position to succeed. Throw Cozart or Stubbs under the bus into the unlucky leadoff spot, at least he can then trust Phillips to reach base at a reasonable rate.
Personally I think Jay Bruce should return to the leadoff role – he’s been asked to do it in previous seasons when the team needed to shake-up the offense, but he’s never stayed in the role long. He’s a fast runner and for his career he is hitting .277 with a .317 OBP in 112 ABs leading off with 8 homeruns. Give the best hitters the most at bats (rather than the worst in Cozart or Stubbs), give Bruce more opportunities. I think the need to allow Bruce hit in the middle of the order has diminished thanks to Frazier and Ludwick. Also Jay Bruce is no stranger to fan dissatisfaction and criticism. A 1-2-3 punch of Bruce, Phillips, and Votto with the CF or shortstop hitting 6th or 7th might be unusual but I think it’s the best use of the Reds players. Sticking Phillips in leadoff just because… and or Cozart at the top just because… it’s crazy. If you’re going to put somebody in a position he’s not suitable for, try to avoid doing it to multiple players.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: It’s not worth it.
Nope, we’re not going to convince each other until we see how Brandon Phillips performs for the remainder of the season leading off. I think many people will just blindly support making Phillips lead off – after all, he performed well in that role for a short time last season (but not before or after 2011) – regardless of how badly he performs, and it’s unfortunate.
Man, Cingrani was a revelation. Without Bray, I don’t see how you’d leave this guy off a playoff roster—deceptive lefty with a mid 90′s fastball and a great out pitch. Also factor in he can go multiple innings and has closer experience and it’s a no brainer for me. An honestly, who would you rather have walking out of the bullpen gate in the 6th inning of a playoff game—Cingrani or LeCure/Leake/Ondrusek?
Cingrani has closer experience in college. Heck, Joey Votto was drafted as a catcher. Both are out of practice for the role they were drafted out of. Deceptive lefty with a mid 90′s fastball and a great out pitch? Eh, maybe deceptive lefty 2-pitch pitcher with a low 90′s fastball who had been pitching in AA because he needs to work on another pitch to be successful against MLB hitters.
I’d rather have Simon, JJ Hoover, Marshall, Broxton, or Chapman coming out of the bullpen. We have an idea of what to expect from them. Tony Cingrani had an impressive debut but, in all fairness, he was facing the Houston Astros and a lineup full of players who nobody had ever heard of. It’s premature to write Cingrani in as a dominant setupman.
@redsfanman: Well let’s just negate all of BP’s positive performances. Anytime he had a good stretch… ’cause, well that’d just be luck and clearly unsustainable. Turns out he’s a .200 hitter riding the pine with Valdez. Sheesh. Nobody is looking for .350 OBP. Nobody. And nobody is citing 2011 as evidence for anything but you.
Looking for career type performance over time, if not his prime years (call it the last 3 seasons), which will be right in the .330′s. Even his at his career OBP, which, for the last time I’ll touch on the subject, again translates into getting on base four less times a season then Jay Bruce at his career OBP over 503 at bats.
Lets not ignore all the negatives either. Citing Phillips’ career OBP as a leadoff hitter IS citing 2011 as evidence because his brief period of unrealistic and unsustainable success leading off in 2011 significantly skewed his career numbers. Seeing Brandon Phillips lead off again is disappointing and painful but hopefully he can make the best of it. We’ll have to wait and see.
So who would you want at leadoff?
Isn’t the idea to have your best 5-6 hitters batting in the top of the order to get more ABs than the Wilson Valdez’s of the world?
So if Baker puts a lineup like:
Phillips
Cozart/Valdez
Votto
Ludwick
Bruce
Frazier
CF
C
P
Doesn’t that give our best hitters the most opportunities throughout the rest of the year?
What’s with all the arguing…
The following argument for Phillips hitting leadoff uses REAL supporting data and not just ‘I think’ supposition.
Phillips career: AVG * OBP * SLG * OPS
BATTING 1st *** .275 *.336 *.445 *.781
BATTING 2nd *** .279 *.322 *.427 *.749
BATTING 3rd *** .277 *.323 *.428 *.750
BATTING 4th *** .282 *.331 *.454 *.785
BATTING 5th-8th .277 *.326 *.436 *.763
It simply doesn’t make any difference where Phillips hits in the batting order. He hits statistically equivalent in every position of the batting order.
% of ground balls hit per ball in play career result:
.498 for Hanigan
.483 for Phillips
.461 for Stubbs
.419 for Cozart
.414 for Votto
.381 for Bruce
.363 for Rolen
.358 for Frazier
.343 for Heisey
.326 for Ludwick
Not only does Phillips hit the ball on the ground more often than everyone except Hanigan, he also hits it hard resulting in much more frequent double plays.
% of double plays per AB:
3.06 Phillips
2.28 Hanigan
2.25 Frazier
2.14 Cozart
2.13 Votto
2.01 Rolen
1.69 Ludwick
1.58 Bruce
1.40 Heisey
0.63 Stubbs
If Phillips hits #1, then he comes to the plate leading off an inning or the pitcher hits in front of him a VERY high percentage (almost certainly above 80%) of the time. For either of those conditions, Phillips will not be able to ground into a double play, which he normally does much more frequently than anyone else in the lineup. This alone makes him a more effective hitter.
Career OBP:
.413 for Votto
.373 for Hanigan
.365 for Rolen
.334 for Bruce
.333 for Ludwick
.331 for Frazier
.323 for Phillips
.319 for Heisey
.315 for Stubbs
.287 for Cozart
A real OBP argument can be made for hitting Votto or Hanigan in the #1 hole to maximize run production but that isn’t ever going to happen with Mr. Baker making out the lineup card and I don’t think I would propose doing it either. Rolen has long since dropped below his career performance level so he is certainly not an option to hit in the #1 hole. Bruce would look like an excellent option to hit in the #1 hole, but he is 2nd in the NL in HR and this would produce even more solo shots, not a good thing. Phillips is as good as any other option and better than most regarding OBP as a criteria for hitting in the #1 hole.
Stolen bases are simply not a significant factor for determining a good leadoff hitter, except for a very few select individuals (i.e. Ricky Henderson) and even then OBP will far outweigh stolen bases as a consideration.
@BloodyHo and Hank:
I lurked on the ESPN boards quite a long time and RedsFanMan was much the same there too. Even once said that he liked starting disagreements because agreeing was too boring… So good luck to you.
On the recent rough patch. Dissapointing? Yes, but not unexpected. The team did a real good job of buckling down and thriving during Votto’s recovery. Natural to exhale and decompress now that he is back. Hopefully, they can rebound and generate positive momentum down the strech. Teams that back into the playoffs can do very well (most recent memory was St Louis the year they beat the tigers in world series), but I’d rather not see the Reds test that out this year.
The least of the Reds concerns should be Cueto winning 20 games. He should be rested and ready for the playoffs in order to get the Reds to the World Series.
@Redsfanx: I don’t think there’s an issue with that. If Cueto just stays on his regular turn in the rotation, he’ll have 4 more starts. Given the Reds off days, the first 3 of those would be with an extra day of rest (5 days between starts). The final start would be with 4 days of rest on the second to last day of the regular season, against the Cardinals, when he would most likely go the usual 5 innings for his “final tuneup” start.
@Lost and Found: Probably been mentioned, but one team that backed into the playoffs and won the WS was the 1990 Reds. Not that I want to see the backing in part.
If we are concerned with getting players like Frazier and such some extra rest, should we not also be concerned with the Pitchers outside of Bronson who are far exceeding their highest innings pitched this season?
@rfay00:
Who would I want at the top of the lineup? Somebody who can get on base (unlike Cozart, Stubbs). Somebody who plays everyday and offers speed to run around the bases (unlike Hanigan, Rolen). Somebody who doesn’t face concerns about knee or leg injuries (Phillips, Votto). A guy who is a threat to opposing pitchers, who they won’t want to face. Somebody who isn’t more useful elsewhere in the lineup (unlike Frazier and Ludwick, who both have a tendency for big dramatic hits in the middle of the lineup). I think that points to Jay Bruce.
Leading off with Phillips and Cozart or Cozart and Phillips, what’s the difference? Either way Cozart is one of the top two hitters, and why does he belong there? He’s just as easy an out as Drew Stubbs. I think they both deserve to hit between 6th and 9th in the lineup.
@BloodyHo:
Jay Bruce, he does hit lots of homeruns, he can give the Reds a lead on the first pitch of a game. This season he’s hit 20 in 285 ABs with none on, 13 in 201 ABs with runners on. He’s led off an inning with a solo homerun 12 times in 141 ABs already. It’s also important to recognize that the leadoff hitter is only scheduled to lead off once per game and hitters in the bottom of the order still reach base sometimes – especially Ryan Hanigan. After the first inning hitting leadoff for the Reds wouldn’t mean leading off every at bat, it means batting behind two former leadoff hitters (Cozart, Stubbs), one of the best OBP guys (Hanigan), and the 9th spot in the order. I think Jay Bruce will get plenty of RBI opportunities. Keeping him in the middle of the order to produce runs might have been a priority earlier this year but I think Ludwick and Frazier have both performed well as run producers.
Indeed stolen bases are not a significant factor for determining a good leadoff hitter, but I think stealing bases is a skill Brandon Phillips will attempt to pursue again anyway as he strives to readjust to the leadoff role, something that he might not do hitting second. After suffering leg injuries twice already this season we have to hope he miss the playoffs with a third leg injury.
1. Bruce, RF
2. Phillips, 2b
3. Votto, 1b
…(fill in the blank)….
6. Cozart, SS
7. Stubbs/Heisey, CF
8. Hanigan, C
9. P
In my opinion the best lineup, top to bottom. Not the normal lineup, not one you’d find in Lineup Building 101, but the best. Best hitters at the top, worst hitters hitting 6th and 7th, slowest guy hitting 8th so the pitchers can bunt him over. Jay Bruce can put the Reds ahead after the first pitch of the game, or he can frequently reach base with the speed to score from first on a double by Votto. Phillips and Votto both hit where I believe most people agree their skills make them most suitable for. I think it’s a great way of putting everyone in a position to find success, rather than a mess forcing you to wonder – why oh why is Cozart still at the top of the order?
Bruce? Why not hit Votto leadoff?
@BloodyHo: I already cited much of this. It is just ignored.
@redsfanman: Maybe his .300 OBP in 2010 is unsustainable also. Why aren’t you just assuming he’ll perform at his career norm? The answer seems to be because it gets in the way of what you believe.
Votto is recovering from knee surgery and I believe that everyone agrees that he’s best used to hit 3rd. I think almost everyone is happy with Ludwick hitting 4th. And Frazier hitting 5th. Bruce is the guy who they can justify moving elsewhere in the lineup, who offers the speed that Dusty desires from the top of the lineup, and who Dusty has previously asked to lead off.
We’ll just have to wait and see. We both have numbers that we can spin to support what we believe. At this rate I believe that for over a decade leadoff has just been a cursed role for the Cincinnati Reds and I think Brandon Phillips is getting elected to be tossed into that revolving door of disgrace with no end in sight.
@indyfan: Yes, we should be concerned.
@redsfanman: Cursed, like supernatural effects? Seriously?
I’m surprised more people don’t like the Bruce at leadoff idea, after all, there’s a lot of complaining about his BA with RISP. Or maybe batting 2nd, even.
Aren’t some players superstitious? Maybe it’s not a supernatural effect but over the years we’ve learned that pretty much anybody who goes into that leadoff role is going to hit badly. Even Brandon Phillips was struck by it in 2010. In most cases the fans really turn against the player. At this rate any Reds player moved into that role should know that he’s next in a long line through, as I call it, that revolving door of disgrace.
As far as the revolving door of disgrace theory, I think Jay Bruce is capable of handling it – his streaky hitting has given him a lot of experience being treated all different ways (often negatively) by fans, and he knows the team won’t give up on him if he struggles… while other leadoff candidates have often been struggling to establish or prolong their careers. Brandon Phillips is used to performing well and being a fan favorite and isn’t used to being criticized or booed.
Like Dusty I’d prefer to avoid keeping Votto and Bruce from hitting back to back. I think keeping somebody who hits lefties well, like Phillips or Ludwick, between them does seem smart by placing the middle guy in a position to succeed.
@pinson343:
It was mentioned above. As I recall, they were quite comfortable in September and clinched in the middle of rain delay at riverfront. Reds were significant underdogs to the Pirates that year in LCS, but like this team, they had several threats in the lineup, solid(but unspectacular) starters, and a strong bullpen.
“Leading off for the Reds” means the successor of guys like Drew Stubbs, Zach Cozart, Orlando Cabrera, Corey Patterson, Willy Taveras, Chris Dickerson, Ryan Freel, Jerry Hairston Jr, Norris Hopper, D’Angelo Jimenez, and Felipe Lopez.
Revolving Door of Disgrace, for almost a decade. Brandon Phillips is one of the only hitters who has walked through that door and emerged on the other side with some credibility as a hitter, and he’s not even a good leadoff hitter.
I look forward to the day when Billy Hamilton is ready to lead off for the Reds. Something he has on his side is that he doesn’t have to accomplish much to earn the job. Reach base 35% of the time as a rookie and he’ll be a huge success. Unlike Brandon Phillips his skills are better suited for that spot than elsewhere in the order.
@BloodyHo: Wonderful post.
Bottom line: All other potential candidates have eliminated themselves. There is only one legitimate option.
All of these aruments based on hypotheticals and potentialities against this move have become very tiresome.
@redsfanman: I completely agree that it’s been a source of embarassment. Brandon Phillips is the leadoff hitter for the remainder of 2012 and even in a slump, his performance is better than that vast majority of that list.
With Hamilton’s callup likely next year, I don’t foresee a big FA signing to fill the need. BP will likley lead off the majority of next year too before Hamilton hopefully assumes the role for the next several years to come.
@redsfanman: You listed a bunch of crappy hitters that the Reds have put at leadoff. Maybe that’s the reason that the spot is “cursed”.