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Let’s recap tonight’s titanic struggle….
FINAL
Philadelphia 1
Cincinnati 2
W: M. Latos (12-4)
L: K. Kendrick (8-10)
S: A. Chapman (35)
BOX SCORE
POSITIVES
–Another very strong outing by Mat Latos. He struggled with his command for a while in the fourth inning, but overall he pitched seven innings, allowing one run on four hits. Latos’ ERA is down to 3.69.
–Jay Bruce continues to mash the baseball. Tonight, Bruce was 2-3 with a walk and the two-run homer that gave the Reds the winning margin. That’s the third straight game in which Bruce has homered. He’s good.
–Jonathan Broxton and Aroldis Chapman were good out of the pen. What about Broxton, by the way? He’s been very good lately.
–Ryan Hanigan was 2-3.
NEGATIVES
–The offense was pretty bad again. That will happen on occasion when your top two hitters in the order have OBPs of .287 (Drew Stubbs) and .221 (Wilson Valdez).
–Let’s not harp on it too much, but there really is no reason Wilson Valdez (.196/.221/.216) should be hitting second in a major league lineup. It’s just willfully ignorant to put him in that spot.
NOT-SO-RANDOM THOUGHTS
–Fun win, Cincinnati’s 83rd victory of the season.
–Don’t look now, but Jay Bruce is hitting .261/.339/.539 with 31 homers and 91 RBI. Not bad at all.
#Reds have 9 runs in the last 3 games.Bruce has driven in 7 of them.
— John Fay (@johnfayman) September 5, 2012
–Tonight, the Reds topped 2 million in attendance for the season.
–Are you prepared to say we were right here at RN to encourage everyone to calm down about Latos after his terrible April?
In his last 14 starts, Latos has posted a 2.44 ERA.
— Reds (@Reds) September 5, 2012
–It’s just TC:
Super Todd has 27 straight game on-base streak.
— TC Kaylor (@ItsJustTC) September 5, 2012
–Reds Magic Number:
Source: FanGraphs
Jay Bruce 2, Phils 1. The RHed bats that had heated up have cooled off, and Jay is carrying this team of late. Really hope to see Joey back in the lineup tomorrow.
@pinson343: Agree with your sentiment, the last week would have been very ugly without him. Few, if any, look better than Jay when he has his stroke going. Just beautiful to watch.
True, but that was a very good and very big AB by Ludwick in front of the Bruce home run. He was down 0-2 but guessed where they would go and coolly went with the pitch, serving the ball out into RF for a single to keep the inning alive and get Bruce to the plate with a chance to do what he did.
Great point.
Like Mike Davis is the forgotten man in Kirk Gibson’s famous WS HR.
Yeah, how did a guy who walked about a batter every month walk a guy hitting .200?
I thought the same thing tonight at the game. Bruce has really put the team on his back and carried it lately. He also made a great defensive play tonight.
Stubbs was on base twice tonight, a hit and walk.
And all night long he took some close pitches he normally chases. He just could lay off that inside running fastball in the 7th at 3-2; but lots of guys would have chased that pitch. Some would have been good enough or lucky enough to spoil it but not Stubbs on this night.
Watching Stubbies ab in the seventh…he got the count to 3-0 and started to walk to first on a pitch right down the middle. Ump called him back and you could just tell by his body language he was done. He just didn’t want to be in the box. Of course he swung at ball four for the K. He needs to be sat every other game or so. He has always responded to a day off with a decent game back. Platoon him with Heisey…
Trade him in the offseason and sign Michael Bourn.
Or, you know, hope Billy Hamilton pans out in the outfield. I am done with Stubbs, and I’m starting to get the sense the organization agrees.
You have to give him credit where it is due and it is due for Bruce. His last 10 games he has carried the offense and played very good to exceptional defense. Since Aug. 1 he has been the Reds best player. He has come thru when they really needed him this year.
If we have cooled what was it when the Cards went 36 innings scoring one run and it was unearned…
@dn4192: The Reds’ have cooled the Crads were experiencing a Cryogenic freeze.
I liked the Broxton trade from the start, and he’s now settled into the 8th inning role. I like the way Dusty handled the bullpen in the 8th tonite. He had both Broxton and Marshall ready. If Rollins or Frandsen get on, Marshall would have come in to pitch to Utley. If Utley gets on, Marshall would have come in to pitch to Howard. (The reason that Ondrusek was up, though I didn’t like the idea of bringing him in if Mayberry got to hit.)
Sometimes Dusty overdoes the lefty/righty thing, but Broxton is definitely tougher on righties, and I like mixing and matching with Broxton/Marshall.
@CharlotteNCRedsFan: Yes, when Bruce’s stroke is going, it’s so effortless.
As smooth as Junior’s was.
OhioJim. Indeed.
The pitching was great, but the offense just has to do more. You don’t win many games by scoring 2 runs.
I was nervous in the 8th and the 9th, even though I have a lot of confidence in the back end guys.
I had a bad feeling that Rollins was going to hit out a first pitch “get ahead” fastball from Broxton. He almost did. I was even worried about Chapman, was afraid that Mayberry or Wiggington would run into a fastball. (I never worry about a LHed hitter with Chapman pitching.) Wiggington almost did. Welsh (I think) compared it to the fastball that Chapman threw Willingham, the last time he blew a save. 97 mph and right down the pipe. Luckily, Wiggington is not Willingham.
@OhioJim: Yes and it should be noted that Ludwick, although not hitting for as much power of late, has kept hitting.
Against the relievers the Reds were seeing in the 7th and the 8th, they should have put up an insurance run. When they didn’t, thought it might come back to haunt, as described above.
Hate to bring up the usual names, but in the 7th XPaul doubles and then Stubbs Ks.
And Valdez leading off the 8th was giving the Phils an automatic out. Without that out, the Reds probably score a run (the 3 walks were not surprising).
Thank god our cleanup hitter can get on base so Bruce can drive him in. Don’t know how the organization thinks playing Stubbs day after day hitting 1st or 2nd will help him or the team. Moronic.
@pinson343: 7th and 8th
I was really hoping Stubbs could draw the walk (7th inning because, I figured that would be the ideal spot for Dusty to play his #19 trump card.
I don’t post often but maybe regularly. I have always maintained, as it continues to drive me and most of Reds fans crazy…. This Team wins in spite of its clueless manager.
Lineup is a joke, he has only been marginally better with the bullpen.
Unfortunately, getting to post season with good record, possibly home field( we would have it if he played the better offensive guys, every baseball fan knows this is obvious), doesn’t and won’t win us the pennant, AS WE WILL FACE THE BETTER TEAMS AND WE PLAY THEM ABOUT 50-50 RIGHT NOW.
This is such crap, this team wins because it has talent. This idea that they win in spite of Dusty to me shows just how out of touch Joe fan is with the actual game itself. Two division titles in three years in spite of Dusty…yea right.
to dn4192:
I wouldn’t say Dusty is clueless except for his love of Stubbs followed by Valdez which makes zero sense. However, least we all forget: Dusty has had the luxury of the same 5 starting pitchers which came out of Spring Training. Unbelieveably rare for any Manager. Add a lights out closer and what Manager wouldn’t look good? I just got back from New York where I attended a Yankee game. The media in Cincy is so easy on Dusty. They would rake him over the coals if he pulled a similar trick in the Bronx with Stubbs.
Dear Redleg Nation,
Due to technical difficulties and a dwindling membership, we are taking another week of vacation. So you will not be seeing any posts from us for a while.
However, we plan to be back, strong as ever, with a new membership drive, as soon as our namesake slumps for a week or so.
We are sorry for any inconvenience.
Sincerely Yours,
The Trade Jay Bruce In The Offseason Club
–”Willfully ignorant”. Yep, that summed up my thoughts when the lineup was posted this afternoon and Valdez was batting second.
–Latos got lucky tonight, but it makes up for some of the bad luck he had early in the season.
–Yes, the RH hitters have cooled, so it’s the perfect time to see Mr. Votto in the lineup tomorrow.
–Frandsen is one heckuva defensive 3B.
How is it that between Thom, Welsh, and Jim Day, and all of the people working on the broadcast, that not one of those people understood that if you force a guy at 2nd (on the ball that should have been ruled a trap), you can’t actually also get a force at home. Thom must have said how smart Hanigan was to step on the plate about 3 times, but I would think that a baseball broadcaster would know that you can’t get a force at 2nd and then home in that order.
I’m seriously wondering how badly Valdez has to hit before the Reds would dump him.
I mean, really, suppose Valdez hit .000 for the season. I’m assuming they’d dump him by now. So what’s the limit? He’s approaching an OPS that will start with the number “3″.
@dn4192: DN, you just re-stated my point. I said, they win, despite Dusty Baker/his ineptitude, therefore, they win because of their talent alone.
How did you not get that the first time? BTW, Almost everyone on this forum agrees.
Exactly. Just the most simple example, it makes slim or no sense whatsoever to have such poor batters in front of who are suppose to be your top RBI guys. Like someone else said, it’s like Baker is just giving those 2 outs away and, actually, still leading off with BP, then Ludwick, Bruce, Frazier, Rolen, etc. We haven’t been winning because of the two poor bats at the front of the lineup. We’ve been winning in spite of the two poor bats in front of the lineup. Who puts them there? The Baker-man. It will be very interesting to see what he does with the lineup when Votto comes back.
…Check it again, we don’t have the same success against the best teams/Pitching staffs. Yeah we won a division title 2 yrs ago, did that make you happy DN? We weren’t even competitive in the first series, getting swept.
I’m looking for a team that is built for a deep run every year. Dusty’s shit lineups don’t give us that. Everyone acknowledges this.
It’s funny how people who sit at home in thier lazy boys with limited information believe they have a better knowledge of a job over someone with actual experience, access to all the information…
The Reds made the playoffs in 2010 and got beat by a better team, now this year have done what they have inspire of the manager…yea right.
Careful, sir.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: Right of course about the force out no longer holding at home. With the ruling that Stubbs caught the ball, the inning was over. If the Reds were being careful and playing out a “trap” call, there’s no force at home.
They just dissected the whole play on mlbnetwork. Stubbs knew he’d trapped it and was throwing home, trying for a force out at the plate. Their interpretation of BP’s cutting the ball off was that he was thinking of getting a force out at second (not a double play). So the Reds were playing as if the ball had been trapped (which it was).
@Steve Mancuso: @OhioJim: I’m glad that some people are willing to recognize when Stubbs has had a decent nite, getting on base twice. I’ve laid off of bashing him, but mentioned his 7th inning K tonite because that was a big moment in the game, or could have turned out that way, against a real hittable pitcher.
did anyone else notice that Aroldis Chapman now has 100 more strikeouts than walks? I’m no expert, but i THINK, that’s pretty impressive.
@Sultan of Swaff: Latos did get lucky in the 4th, but did not rely on luck after that.
There was a pretty long segment on mlbnetwork tonite about interactions between Latos and Frandsen. They’re apparently buddies as they were joking around when Frandsen took a couple of big swings in the first inning, and more joking when Latos made it to 3rd in the 3rd. Problem is, while joking, Frandsen put on the sign for the successful pickoff play. Not as bad but reminiscent of BP getting picked off while chatting with his buddy, Jimmy Rollins.
No guy on the other team is your “buddy” while the game is being played. No wonder that Latos was in a bad frame of mind in the top of the 4th, and lost composure after he didn’t get a called 3rd strike on a borderline pitch. (Why didn’t anyone try to settle him down until after he walked in a run ?)
BTW, the mlbnetwork people said that they are friends because they played together in the SD system, but Frandsen was never in the SD system.
@cadmiumreddeep: For the number of innings he’s pitched, it’s amazing.
Watching some West Coast baseball. The Dodgers take a 3-1 lead over the Padres in the bottom of the 7th and Boxberger comes in to end the rally by striking out Matt Kemp with a runner on 2nd. Then Yasmani Grandal hits a 2 run HR to tie it in the top of the 8th. Grandal has that HR, a walk, and a single so far in the game.
I’m real glad that Latos is good.
Off-topic, but I heard late Tuesday night that Chris Carpenter is going to throw a few simulated innings Saturday, and if that goes well, up the pitch count in another simulated game next week, and perhaps rejoin the Cardinals rotation before season’s end. … Let’s get this thing clinched well before that last series of the season, shall we???
That Cardinal rotation is pretty scary without Carp. With him (if he is effective) it’s a down-right horror show.
So the Cards have a scary pitching staff, a top ranked offense…so how are they not in first place?
I’ve got three quick things from tonight
1) Stubbs got on base tonight and made a heads up play in the outfield by not diving for the ball and playing for the force out. His D alone is so far better than Heisey’s, who probably would have dove and missed it. That alone is why Stubbs plays.
2) As a card holding member of the Jay Bruce can do no wrong club, it is good to see the Trade Jay Bruce club go away for a bit. I’m not sad to see you guys go.
3) Dusty’s Line-ups. It is hard for me to get upset with them until I see what he does when Votto comes back. If we still see stubbs in the first two spots, then we have a problem. I figure we will see a Phillips, Cozart, Votto, Ludwick, Bruce, Rolen, Stubbs, Hanagan, Pitcher line up as the basis for the rest of the season and playoffs.
Hey, one of my silly tweets made the recap. What a pleasure!
#dustylineup
Exactly what are people’s expectations for Votto the rest of the way?
This was one of those games I ‘felt’ we were going to lose, but this team is just too good and too competitive right now.
Valdez was everything he was expected to be in the lineup, which is nothing. Our two veterans are hurting this team when they get PT. There is no way around it.
Valdez had the worst Avg/OBP/SLG in the lineup at #2 (Latos was better in every category)! If Phillips doesn’t supplant a SS/CF at the top of the order when Votto is back tonight then I may rip my hair out.
Clearly Valdez will be with the club through September as the guy who will spell Cozart and occasionally BP. No one likes that, but it’s too late in the year to do anything about it and I’m willing to believe that Dusty/Walt know more about Gregorious’ ability to start a game in the bigs right now than I do. With a month left that should only mean having to see Valdez 4 or 5 more times and I can live with that. The trade was an epic failure but we’re en route to a division title so meh…I can live with it.
The bigger question is will Valdez and Cairo be on the post-season roster? I’m kind of terrified that they both will be. Cairo because Dusty just can’t get enough of his veteraniness…GOTTA HAVE MORE VETERANINESS…and Valdez because “What happens if BP get hurt?” Clearly neither would start a game, but I still can’t help but think Dusty would find a way to PH both at some point just on principle…I could also see hypothetically, deep in the playoffs when tensions are very high, BP getting thrown out of a game like he was the other night for arguing. The very notion that Wlson Valdez could get multiple AB’s and actual defensive innings in a playoff game makes me seriously nauseous.
They have been on the team all season, there is zero chance either won’t be on the playoff roster. Why would you screw with the roster that has been this successful.
I’m not sure I agree with that. I can understand the need to have utility infielders over the course of 162 games. Your starters are going to get hurt. Are going to need days off. You might need a guy to come in and play for a week or two and he might need to shift between different spots (Todd Frazier). But in the playoffs, none of your starters are taking days off. Yes, someone could still get hurt, but it would have to be serious for them to sit. And you shouldn’t be putting your post-season roster together based on the possibility of an injury. You put your best 25 guys out there, period. Cairo and Valdez are NOT 2 of our best guys. So yes, they have been on the roster all year and have served a purpose – how well they served that purpose is up for debate (not really) – but once the regular season is over their role SHOULD be over.
Okay who takes thier roster spot? Won’t be any rookies so what veterans are there?
I’d guess that maybe a guy named Votto takes the roster spot of one of them. The only other option is to get rid of Paul, and that ain’t happening. Even if Dusty Baker begs Jocketty (and Baker likes Paul, anyways).
And I had totally forgotten about this. If Votto had come back on August 31st then Cairo would be gone already.
I think we are a Looooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooong way from knowing if Mr. Votto will be on the playoff roster. Right now I would lean more towards him not and being on the DL over him playing……
Look at it this way – Neither Valdez or Cairo should see the field in the post season except in an absolute emergency. There is even LESS reason for either one of them to EVER take a single AB in the post season. So you would be keeping TWO players who you would never want to bat and who you hopefully would never use int he field. How is that efficient roster management? Frazier backs up both Rolen and Votto should one of them need a rest. In a pinch, I’d imagine Navarro or Hanigan could also backup 1B. That completely removes Cairo’s role from the team. In his place I’d take Mesoraco. With Hanigan, Navarro, and Mes on the bench he can bat either Navarro or Mes anywhere in the game he wants and still keep his most-coveted backup catcher (again, Dusty always managing for that worst case scenario that never happens…) Cario = done. The end.
Valdez is a little trickier. Right now there is no experienced backup behind Cozart or BP at short or second. But Cozart and BP should, barring an injury, not need any time off. Do you really have to build your post season roster around the chance of a disastrous injury to a young starter? That woudl be the only reason to have Valdez around. You could still NEVER justify sending him to bat even once no matter what the situation, so you essentially are playing with a 24 man roster with one really bad emergency stop gap sitting on the end of the bench. I would rather roll the dice that Cozart and Phillips will both stay healthy and have either an extra bat – ANYONE really – or just keep an extra arm in the bullpen. We are going to be starting either Arroyo, Bailey, or both at some point in the post season and there’s every reason to believe we might need all the help we can from the pen on those days. Valdez has no value to this team in the post season. None.
Good point. Why not just disable Votto, they played better without him than with him.
“Latos Tolerant” – How long were you sitting on that one this year?
You already know what you have in Valdez (nothing). If you have to give Cozart a day, why wouldn’t see what you have in a player like Gregorius? By all accounts, his defense is already major-league ready. So, you risk nothing by playing him over Valdez, but with a ton more upside. Seems like the textbook definition of a no-brainer to me.
@RiverCity Redleg:
I made the exact same argument in the game thread. Even if Gregorious comes in and bats .190 and makes an error or two, at least you’re getting a young player experience with that playing time rather than just watching a veteran whose career is clearly over ride off into the sunset with all of those innings and AB’s. My only point above was that this is, for whatever reason, the plan Dusty is going with for this last month so I’m just not going to get riled up about seeing Valdez on the field once a week for the next 4 weeks. It won’t cost us the division and hopefully after that I never have to see him again.
But, unfortunately, Dusty doesn’t want to play the call-ups. His quote yesterday was “we ain’t runnin’ no tryout camp”. Which, of course, is the opposite of last year’s winner, “they ain’t up here to paint.” His man-crush on Valdez (and Cairo, for that matter) fits his love of all veterans, no matter how bad they are.
@eric nyc: I would sooner see Todd Frazier at SS or 2nd.
It isn’t as if Valdez has looked like much a defensive specialist.
@RiverCity Redleg:
I agree, if you’re going to have Gregorius up here, let him have a start when Cozart needs the day off.
Somewhat related note, anyone see that the Reds outrighted both Chris Valaika and Jordan Smith to Louisville? This really surprises me, as I figured both those guys would be September call-ups.
This just removes them from the 40-man roster, I believe. I thought Jordan Smith would be called up to. But adding Tony Cingrani to the 40-man roster and calling him up was a bit of a most pleasant surprise. I really love this guy’s pitching. I think the Reds have decided to fast track his development some. Bringing him up to get a taste of MLB and see how everybody goes about their work and how they prepare for a game was genuis. He will be the next star in the starting rotation. He takes Arroyo’s spot sometime in 2013 or for the 2014 season.
Am I the only one who would love to see Xavier Paul get some more playing time? He’s no world beater but he’s a gamer. I don’t think I’ve seen him have a bad at bat. Can he play CF?
For the NLDS, in a 5 game series, I see the Reds having an extra bat on the bench and only 11 pitchers on the roster. Thus, unfortunately, Exxon Valdez will be on the post-season roster. In a 7 game series, the NLCS and WS, I see the Reds carrying a normal load of 12 pitchers. The bench spots will be highly important in a 7 game series. Will Exxon Valdez be on those rosters? It’ll depend on what happens between now and then, if any injuries occur. My guess is, he will be.
Ladies and gentelmen, Mr. Joey Votto:
Phillips 2B
Heisey CF
Votto 1B
Ludwick LF
Bruce RF
Frazier 3B
Navarro C
Gregorious SS
Leake P
@RedLegHerrm: Anybody else hearing the “Alleluia Chorus?”
Day 1…lets see he gets tomorrow off with the off day, so it will be interesting…
Hmm… Two days off in a row for Cozart? Actually, with an off-day tomorrow, that’s three. Weird.
Fay says he’s got a stiff back. Didn’t sound like anything too serious. I’m excited to see Didi.
Ditto, I like the extra lefty bat against Halladay. While untested near the bottom, I don’t see a soft spot in this lineup today. Pretty neat
I see a soft spot at 7th and 8th in the lineup. Big test for Didi Gregorius, we can base his whole career off one game against Roy Halladay. Can he hit or can’t he? It all comes down to this.
So what will be the reasoning if said lineup today lays an egg?
@dn4192:
After Mr. Baker’s callous, haphazard and stubborn refusal to put the best players in their best positions to succeed, for more than 120+ games, I think one game, good or bad, pales in comparison.
For the record, by letting Brandon Phillips lead off I definitely don’t think that Dusty is putting Phillips in his best position to succeed – I think he’s throwing Phillips under the bus by tossing him into a position that he’s not suitable for. Phillips might be the Reds’ best leadoff hitter but Phillips does not reach base enough to be a good leadoff hitter.
On Bruce during the time Votto’s been out: (From Lance’s blog)
Jay Bruce since Joey Votto went on the DL:
.284-.366-.611-.977, 13 HR, 34 RBI in 45 games, 162 AB
He started 0 for 12 when Votto went on DL.
Jay Bruce since Dusty gave him back to backs days off, Aug 10-11, at Wrigley:
.345-.402-.810-1.212, 10 HR, 24 RBI in 22 games, 84 AB
2012 stats
31 HR, 91 RBI
Projected stats
37 HR, 108 RBI
With 25 games remaining he is one HR from tying a career high (32) and 9 RBI from his first 100 RBI season.
Read more: http://www.espn1530.com/pages/lancesBlog.html#ixzz25biwEN00
@RedLegHerrm: Other Bylines . . .
Reds re-introduce sometime leadoff hitter back to the top spot.
Dusty plays the odds with lefty heavy order against Halladay.
@RedLegHerrm: YIKES!!! Everyone should be VERY careful and prepare for the end of the world as we know it. No Stubbs or Cozart in the top 2 of the lineup? Of course is apparently took an injury to Cazart to make this happen, but it doesn’t seem serious. This lineup is certainly serious. The base clogging catcher isn’t even hitting 8th. I guess the team chemistry and comraderie and Mr. Baker’s mystical contribution behind the scenes just got thrown out the proverbial window.
“Tell him about the Twinkie.”
Also, our 1 and 2 batters’ OBPs are .333 and .324. Not stellar, but a HUGE improvement!
Barring anything crazy, I think Friday’s lineup may be the starting lineup for the playoffs. I am guessing
Phillips
Cozart
Votto
Ludwick
Bruce
Rolen
Stubbs
Hanigan
P
@Bill Lack: Good stuff. Sure hope that’s a good enough showcase so the Reds can get themselves a “real” RF.
@RedLegHerrm: Oh, nice. I was so pumped to see Votto I failed to notice Didi was in. Excellent.
@dn4192: Uh, one game sample size against Roy freaking Halladay. Nobody should make much hay one way or the other about one game.
So long as Didi doesn’t go 0-4 and let a ball go thru his legs to lose the game, I’ll preemptively declare his day a relative success.
Always good to hold one player to a lower standard than another. It’s the best way to make a fair evaluation of a player’s performance.
@redsfanman: What do you want from a kid making a debut against Halladay? Sultan was just making a joke about Valdez.
@dn4192: Ideally they’d have as many games with a lineup like this as Dusty allowed Cozart and Stubbs to go 1-2. So nobody needs to hear “Brandon went 0-3 today, goes to show he can’t hit leadoff” or “They scored 2 runs today, so much for the lineup.”