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Let’s recap today’s titanic struggle….
FINAL
Philadelphia 4
Cincinnati 2
W: T. Cloyd (1-1)
L: J. Cueto (17-7)
S: P. Aumont (1)
BOX SCORE
POSITIVES
–Not a great Labor Day for the good guys, but Jay Bruce had a nice afternoon. Bruce went 2-4 with a homer and two RBI. For the season, Bruce now has 30 homers and 89 RBI. Not too shabby.
–Ryan Ludwick was the only other Red with two hits; he had a single and a double, and a run scored.
–JJ Hoover and Logan Ondrusek each pitched a perfect inning.
NEGATIVES
–Johnny Cueto didn’t have a terrible outing, so it seems strange to list this as a negative…but it’s Cueto we’re talking about. A seven-inning outing, allowing four runs on eight hits while striking out five — not a good Cueto start.
Cueto could have mitigated the damage but for an uncharacteristic episode in the fifth. At the time, the Phillies hadn’t been able to score, but Cueto allowed two-out hits to the #8 hitter and the opposing pitcher. Predictably, Jimmy Rollins made Cueto pay by depositing a three-run homer in the stands.
Before that three-batter snafu, and after it, Cueto was largely good today.
–Once again, the Reds were shut down by a soft-tossing young guy.
NOT-SO-RANDOM THOUGHTS
–That wasn’t much fun, but I hope you guys and gals are enjoying the rest of your Labor Day.
–Reds Magic Number:
Source: FanGraphs
It seems like in recent weeks the Reds have been having more trouble with rookies they’ve never heard of before than the big name pitchers who fans get worried about. Cloyd. Raley. Fiers.
Rrecent…..it always seems like Reds struggle with young never faced before pitchers….gotta question advanced scouting…
Gotta find somebody to blame for the 82-54 record. Start firing people! Or bring back Joey Votto, he’ll hit .500 only if one knee is working.
I don’t read his comment as that. I read it as questioning advanced scouting. Sounds perfectly logical. Not unfounded in athletics history. Sounds like you are trying to put words in people’s mouths.
@dn4192: I am not sure it’s an issue with advance scouting. Most advance scouting is done at the MLB level and this guy has only had one start to work with. Also, your advance scouts keep an eye on all opponents that are coming in the pipe but mostly focus on the next opponent you’re playing, usually taking in a series.
While I’ve had questions in the past about the Reds’ advance scouting, I think they’ve gotten a lot better at it. All you need to do is look at how good their defensive positioning has been this year as well as how good the pitching game-plans have seemed to be. Granted however that with pitch-by-pitch data so widely available, most of that information can be gotten online with no need for a traditional advance scout to actually have a butt in the seat at whatever park your upcoming oponent is playing in.
Titanic Struggle Recap: We don’t need the hitters at the top of the order getting on base. We need hitters to drive in baserunners.
Can’t drive in baserunners if people don’t get on base.
So, we need both.
0 for 8 from one and two in the lineup. Same stuff, different day.
And yet 82 wins…
Could be 92 if there was any dang logic to setting the top of the order!
There is zero way to know that. Reds reached 82 wins faster then any Reds team since win and to think it could be 92 is near laughable.
And, going with these 1-2 hole batters is laughable.
So being in first and having the second best overall record in baseball is laughable?
Did I say that? No I didn’t. Please don’t put words into people’s mouths.
If you want something, and just imagine how much better we would be, how many more wins we would have, if we had the better hitters up there.
I don’t believe we would be better, I believe that the reason our lineup is what it is has been done based on more information that dusty has over “Joe” fan and you can’t argue the results.
The analysis is simple common sense. We would be much better.
Yes. No way to know for sure. Not laughable, though. Within the realm of possibility.
I don’t know if within the realm of reality, either. But, I do know this. If we had better batters in the 1-2 holes, better batters that are on this team right now, batting in front of Votto, we score more runs. We score more runs, we win more games. How many more is anyone’s guess. But, to say we wouldn’t have won any more games than this what we have currently more than likely isn’t correct.
You are assuming we would score more runs and again we don’t know we would. What we do know is the lineup has produced more wins then every other team but one, and I am willing to bet no one here would have thought back when the season opened.
Not only would it farther into the realm of reality as it is I am making this post right now. What, you are going to bet we wouldn’t score more runs if Votto had better hitters in front of him? Not a very good analysis there.
Again, and just imagine how good we would be doing if we had better hitters in the 1-2 holes.
I want to apologize. I believe this response sounded harsh. I should have said it better.
If making out a lineup was based just on numbers then why even have a manager, just have a computer print out each day the most productive order and play the games…
Never said by the numbers. Everyone has only said “better hitters”, as in better hitters who are on this team right now. Who? Take your pick. That’s not by the numbers.
I felt these last 3 games were “boring” offensively. Even the 5 run 8th inning the other night, we really didn’t do much outside that. And, 2 of these three games were against a AAAA team. I hope this isn’t the start of something. Good teams, playoff teams, know how to keep away from 5 run innings.
Votto just completed his last rehab appearance on a minor league roster. Unless he plans on heading out to the Reds training complex in AZ for more work, he should be joining the Reds active roster by tomorrow. There is no benefit to keeping him on the DL unless he is headed out to AZ, even if he doesn’t play immediately.
There are three possibilities that I see regarding Votto’s delayed reactivation. The first most obviousreason is that his knee is still bothering him and he wants to maintain a controlled playing environment until he is fully comfortable with his knee. The 2nd almost equally obvious reason is that Votto is a perfectionist in his craft and he does not want to be activated until he feels that he is 100% effective. The third and much less obvious possibility is that Votto has seen how effective the Reds have played in his absence and he does not want to disrupt the chemistry that contributed to the Reds’ recent performance.
If reason #1, then Votto should obviously take as much time as necessary to fully heal.
If reason #2, then someone needs to sit Votto down and convince him that even a rusty Joey Votto is better than almost every MLB player active today and he needs to get back in the lineup and start contributing.
If reason #3, then Votto needs to be commended for his sensitivity and insight, but the time has come for his leadership on the field.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Votto is being a bit of a headcase with this. Like, hesitant about playing on an injured knee.
I just don’t believe this. Honestly, this is a lot of supposition without any evidence. Is this because of the depression issue 5 years ago? Seems like a real stretch.
Not too far of a stretch for those who have seen headcases in action.
Really? Could it be the knee isn’t 100%…if its not then I don’t want him playing.
I am going by when I injured my knee. I thought my soccer career was over. During rehab, I was so ginger on it, it was ridiculous. The thing that got me through was a nurse telling me to quit being a pansy. That got me fired up. As a result, I made 5 times as much progress in the same amount of time after the nurse’s comment as I did before the comment. Thus, I was being a headcase about it. No reason why Votto couldn’t be the same.
It’s (1). And, I keep hearing days he’s going to play. Reading between the lines of today’s article with quotes from Votto, it’s not going to be tomorrow either.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/nationals/reds-joey-votto-goes-0-for-3-in-rehab-start-with-triple-a-louisville/2012/09/03/84d6e8b2-f616-11e1-a93b-7185e3f88849_story.html
Here is the quote that makes me pretty sure tomorrow’s not the day:
“I will go in tomorrow and have a meeting with the Reds people and see what they say about my progress and my knee,” Votto said. “I’ll just play it by ear. I’ll let my body tell me when I feel like I’m getting there. I’m not very far off.”
He also indicated his knee wasn’t fully healthy as early as a few days ago; this despite all the scribes saying he looked perfect.
Over the last 5 series, encompassing 11 games with Stubbs hitting at the top of the lineup, the results of the top two hitters:
.168 BA (Willie Harris we miss you!)
.192 OBP (Willie Harris we miss you!)
.029 BB/PA (are you kidding me?)
.327 SO/PA (this is simply laughable)
.818 Runs/Game (this is the key overall result)
3.09 LOB/Game (nice to have pitchers who hit better)
Maybe comparing: * AVG * OBP ** SLG ** OPS
Stubbs for 2012: .219 * .285 * .356 * .640
Heisey for 2012: .286 * .324 * .431 * .755
Stubbs 2nd Half: .225 * .283 * .341 * .623
Heisey 2nd Half: .338 * .363 * .545 * .908
Stubbs – August: .185 * .241 * .241 * .482
Heisey – August: .341 * .357 * .610 * .967
With even just a straight up substitution of Heisey in CF for Stubbs, the improved results at the top of the order are simply astounding. If Phillips is moved to the #1 hole with Heisey in the #2 hole, the offensive production becomes so much better it’s just sick, even before Votto comes back. Once Votto comes back, well we can only hope for some common sense to prevail.
Only problem is you don’t factor in the human factor..
Or, the problem is that you only factor in the human factor? I happen to agree the idea that the Reds have lost 10 wins due to lineup shenanigans is silly. Obviously, we can’t play the season again with a different lineup, but to say it’s made no difference is equally silly.
There is no way to know, but I will ask this, if back on day one if you were told the numbers that have come from the 1/2 slot how many would have predicted the win total as of Sept. 1 be what it is. I net most would have said we would be no more then .500 at best.
But, at the same time, you can’t deny that we would have more wins with better batters in front of Votto, which would mean more runs for us, which would mean more wins. Putting an exact number on that no one can do. But, saying wouldn’t mean more wins is highly unlikely given it would mean more runs for us.
Human factor as in, how? Numbers don’t lie. Besides power numbers, Heisey’s numbers are getting better each season, Stubbs are getting worse.
With Votto, his next game should be with the Reds, right? He is no more likely to get injured with the Reds than he would be somewhere else. As was perfectly described above, a rusty Joey is better than anyone else.
If he wants to make sure he is healthy then, obviously, he should take as much time as necessary. But if it is a question of getting his swing back I wish he would do that in Cincinnati.
Why is everyone wanting to rush him back?
I really disagree with this. Assuming Frazier’s going to the bench most games when Votto plays, a rusty Votto is definitely not an asset. I’m not saying I don’t want him back or I’m not willing to play him if he might not be 100%, but if he can’t be 85% or more of the typical Votto, he’s going to be a downgrade from Frazier.
For people who think the Giants would be an easy first round opponent, consider that not only do they throw Cain/Bumgarner/Vogelsong at you, but their offense scored the most runs of any NL team in August—and they played 18 of their 29 games either at home or at SD or at LA.
Don’t get me wrong, I’d think the Reds should be favored in a series vs the Giants…but not by much. Maybe 52-53% chance to win, maybe up to 55% because the Melk-Man won’t be playing.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: Especially considering the Reds 1-2 hitters dont get on base that much, that is the #1 concern for this team come October.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: 5 yrs ago. It was a couple seasons ago. Frankly…I think its as simple as the Knee is not healed.
Right, I remembered it being further back. It was just slightly more than 3 years ago, July 2009.
I said the same thing, I think the knee’s bothering him, piecing together what he’s been saying. It is really surprising that folks are so sure he’s coming back. I’m still waiting until I see it. The more days late he is, the more likely something’s just wrong.
To me its simple, if he isn’t ready then send him to AZ to continue the rehab, we don’t need him really to the playoffs.
I have been of the opinion that the low OBP from the leadoff spot is hurting the team, but have also seen Jason Linden post a comment that, over the course of a season, batting order has little effect. So I am trying to make computations to determine how low OBP from the leadoff spot is affecting the Reds record. To keep it simple so calculations for multiple batting order changes aren’t needed, I just swapped the Reds #1 spot (.248 OBP) with the #7 spot (.316 OBP). The figures are based upon 135 games played.
I couldn’t find plate appearances by batting order, so had to use AB plus BB. Based upon that figure, the .068 increase in OBP would get the leadoff hitter on base 42 more times. The leadoff spot is scoring 46.7% of the time they get on, so it would produce 20 more runs. The #7 hitter would lose .068 OBP, reducing his times on base by 36. With a run scored percent of 35.8%, the team would lose 13 runs.
The 7 run differential is understated because it doe not take into consideration that the 2-3-4 hitters are all coming to bat with a runner base and one less out 42 more times. Someone else could probably calculate that potential, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the run differential almost double.
Based upon this exercise, I don’t believe the batting order has cost the Reds 10 games this year. I could see them having won 3 or so more games with better OBP out of the leadoff postion.
But, then, when do those runs come, also? Would scoring one run start a big inning, etc.? Plenty of times in the history of the game where one run can mean the difference in a game. Still, bottom line, better batters in front of a player like Votto would mean more runs. More runs would mean more wins. How many wins no one can quantify. But, no one can say it would mean no increase in wins.
Also, you would need to consider that, with Stubbs striking out more than Heisey, how many of Heisey’s outs that he would make be fielder’s choices, sacrifices that would move a runner along (Heisey is one of the better bunters on the team), sacrifice flies that would drive in a run, etc., all that Stubbs wouldn’t do striking out.
@MikeC: Sounds about right.
The real problem is not the regular season, it’s postseason games where runs are going to be harder to come by, plus, the averages in the regular season are taken over 162 games. Some games Cozart and Stubbs are great, and they score more runs than they would have if they batted low in the order, and in some games (more games, of course) Cozart and Stubbs don’t get on, and they lose runs. So as you say you get a small fraction of a run more per game if you move them down.
But in a postseason series, short and with good opposing pitching, they could lose a run in any given game, which could be the difference. They need as many guys on against the good pitchers as they can, in front of the boppers.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: On Votto… I pretty much agree with you. I think there is increasing reason to believe his knee is much less that 100%. I would not be surprised if Joey believes he has a small infinite number of reps left in the knee at full speed prior to needing much more extensive work to completely fix the problem and he wants to save those reps for when the team really needs them. The team having an 8.5 game lead with 28 games to play is not such a time…
I looked and as I figured Dusty has the .219 batter hitting in the top of the line up and the .286 batter on the bench. Doesn’t anyone in ownership ask WHYYYYYYY???
Ownership apparently values fielding and base stealing ability from a CF over a .040 increase in OBP.
First, ownership doesn’t make the lineups. If they did, Dusty would probably leave the next day. It’s probably Dusty that favors it. Which few can’t argue with. The entire argument is why have the 0.219 batting so high in the order? Can’t steal bases when you can’t get on. Can’t steal first. He can still defend batting lower in the order. Frankly, like others have stated, Heisey isn’t Alonso out there. Some stats have Heisey’s range/defense ability greater than Stubbs. I give Stubbs the edge on defense because of his arm. But, that’s only because Heisey hasn’t played enough for any of us to see him try to make a play where he needs to use his arm to throw a runner out at home. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t have the arm to throw a runner out.
@BloodyHo: @Hank Aarons Teammate:
BloodyHo: “There are three possibilities that I see regarding Votto’s delayed reactivation. The first most obvious reason is that his knee is still bothering him and he wants to maintain a controlled playing environment until he is fully comfortable with his knee. The 2nd almost equally obvious reason is that Votto is a perfectionist in his craft and he does not want to be activated until he feels that he is 100% effective.”
As Hank’s teammate (which teammate, I wonder) says, it’s (1), but it’s also (2), Joey said exactly this about a week ago. He specifically said that if he returns less than 100%, it’s unfair to his teammates.
This is Joey being Joey, the consummate perfectionist. He IS a bit of a head case, but in a good way. You can’t be that intense and that driven and that intelligent without being a bit of head case. Think Ted Williams.
I believe Joey will be back on the Reds roster today and will start PHing. From there he’ll work his way back into the lineup.
Third straight game that the Reds could do nothing with a young RHed starter.
The Reds lineup, especially without Joey, is just too RHed dominant. If the RHed bats are having trouble figuring a pitcher out, it’s all up to Jay.
The “young” part, as discussed above, is relevant too. The Reds had trouble with 3 straight young lefty starters in Arizona.
I watched the whole game, and felt “here comes trouble” after the opposing pitcher Cloyd singled, to put two runners on with Rollins coming up. Cueto had been in good form, spotting his pitches, retiring 9 in a row. Then the 4th string catcher hits a 2 out ground ball single. With Cloyd coming up, I feel that Cueto should have taken his AB as a key one and gone for the K.
Cueto is able to get out of jams by going for Ks against the best hitters in the league, why take a chance – in that situation – on a ground ball single by Cloyd ? Strike out the guy. The ground ball created the situation where a single mistake can cost 3 runs, which naturally is what happened.
Cueto’s next time up, Cloyd had no trouble striking him out.
It was raining pretty hard when he hung the slider to Rollins and the Reds radio guys thought he slipped a little on that pitch. Cueto had them work on the mound a little later. But no matter and too late.
This was not a fun game to watch. The Reds flailing away, looking helpless against three recent call ups (all RHed, Manuel is on to something).
Cloyd looked like Bronson Arroyo on a good day, having the Reds overswinging and frustrated with pitches that topped out in the mid 80s.
The big opportunity was against the 8th inning guy, who was making his major league debut, and too nervous to have any kind of command. Too nervous at first to throw a strike. So after ball 1 that is nowhere close, Hanigan swings at the first strike and hits a weak ground ball to SS. The patient Hanigan ? Even Phipps, a free swinger and making his own major league debut, drew a walk as the next batter.
In the 9th Aumont was also shaky and lacking in command. The Reds got the 2 singles and there was hope with Frazier up. He did not help himself by swinging at the first pitch, a curve ball that hit the ground 2 feet in front of the plate. He was obviously guessing fast ball, but even if you’re guessing, can’t a hitter like him adjust on a pitch that’s nowhere near the plate ?
@pinson343: PS. One could reasonably ask, how do I know that Cueto wasn’t going for a K against Cloyd ? And of course I don’t know. FWIW, the fist two pitches were fast balls and the count was 1-1. The ground ball pitch was a slider, maybe it wasn’t quite where Cueto wanted it, even though it wasn’t hit hard.
Well, Cueto himself has said he doesn’t go for K’s, and moreover, it’s not clear to me that he has the kind of stuff to do it anyways. Cueto has accurate, weak ground ball kind of stuff.
It’s the main weakness in his game. Situationally, it can be a problem when you really need that K.
Hoover and Ondrusek both were locked in, competing for a post-season spot.
God, please no. This should already be decided. Hoover was better than Ondrusek in his first go-round.
My take on the Joey Votto situation. I want him back. I think pinson above had a good point. Maybe he is a bit of a head case, but in a good way. He does seem like a perfectionist and why come back when he isn’t 100% while the team is playing so well. I do think the way they have played in the last few games shows they need him soon. As a fan it is frustrating to read day after day that he’s almost there but not quite. We thought he’d be back Saturday, then yesterday, now maybe tonight, maybe not. On the other hand I don’t want him back because I’m afraid Todd Frazier will be on the bench and that (at least for me) starts a new frustration or aggravation or whatever you want to call it. I keep reading where Frazier will fill in for Votto, or Rolen, or Ludwick so each of them can rest. But then how will Cairo or Valdez or Paul get their at bats so they can stay fresh for the post season?
If it comes down to Cairo or Valdez… well, it was fun making it to the playoffs.
I forgot to mention my assumptiion is based upon Dusty keeping Stubbs in the line up, but dropping him in the order. If Stubbs is replaced by a hitter with a .316 OBP, then the additional 20 runs come without a drop at the #7 slot.
@K: Nowhere I’ve read has Votto himself ever said he’s coming back soon. It’s more the fans that are just assuming it. Today’s quotes from Baker indicate to me that it could be a while longer.
Top of the order went a combined 0 for 8 yesterday. Stubbs now batting .219! How is that not a negative? In the last 7-days, he’s hitting .130. In the past 10, his average has gone from .229 to .219. Yet Dusty still rolls him out there as Heisey sits. I don’t get it. Braves sat Uggla because he’s been awful. It’s time Dusty did the same with Stubbs.
@sezwhom1: Maybe we can tell Stubbs there’s a super secret trade deadline coming. That lit a fire under him in July.
When should we start giving our starters some rest? Wouldn’t it maybe be an idea to start this kid from AA on Sunday vs. the Astros and say give Cueto a skip and some rest?
@Hank Aarons Teammate: Like it or not, Ondrusek is still in the running for a post season spot. I much prefer Hoover and don’t believe Ondrussk is needed.
BTW I didn’t mean to imply that they were strictly competing against each other. It’s conceivable that both could make it.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: Cueto doesn’t generally go for Ks, that’s clear. But he still could go for situational Ks, and he does K power hitters when in a jam. But those are hitters with big swings, not the opposing pitcher punching the ball.
I heard Tom Seaver talk about this several times. With runners on, he said the first thing he’d decide is whether he thought he could strike the batter out. If he felt he could, he’d go for it. Otherwise he’d try to induce a pop up or weak ground ball, depending on the hitter and situation.
But right Cueto does not have Tom Seaver stuff.
Wilson Valdez batting second. Cue the (merited) line up complaints. It’s virtually a cliche at this point but why for the love of all that is good and holy is Wilson “my warning track is 2nd base” Valdez ‘setting’ the table for the Red’s power hitters?
Is it becuase he is playing SS tonight? I can think of no other reason.
@rightsaidred:
It isn’t because he’s hit Kendrick….0-3 career. I would say unbelievable, but at this point in the season it is actually quite believable. Illogical perhaps, but believable.
@Redgoggles: The lowest batting average, OBP, and SLG in tonight’s lineup are boasted by just one player.
Hint #1: It’s not Latos
Hint #2: His name begins with a V and rhymes with Schmaldez.
@rightsaidred:
Well Dusty does have a point…..he IS due.
@Redgoggles: If ever there was a time not to bat the SS – it would be now. It still doesn’t change. I am beginning to wonder if a baseball superstition is dictating the top of Dusty’s lineup card . . .
Not to bat the SS 2nd, sorry for the omission.
@rightsaidred: Dusty has explained why Valdez is batting 2nd. “It’s OK to make outs batting 2nd”, he has said. He means “productive” outs, moving along the leadoff hitter after he gets on.
Sigh.
Joey has explained what he means by 100% (see Fay’s column). He knows he’s not going to be 100% until the off season. He’s talking about guarding against the possibility of hurting his knee while playing.