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Bill James and Other Matters

Paul Daugherty was gracious enough to allow me to drive The Morning Line bus, his daily blog for the Cincinnati Enquirer.  Check it out.

19 comments to Bill James and Other Matters

    • Hank Aarons Teammate

      Looks like Votto has another game with the Dragons tonight: http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/08/31/another-game-in-dayton-for-votto/

      Now his return is “probably Monday”. Anyone think it’s definitely Monday? I don’t.

      • dn4192

        Now his return is “probably Monday”. Anyone think it’s definitely Monday? I don’t.

        I said from day one (even got banned from a Reds web site overit) that this was not going to be a quick couple of weeks and be done. Then you add in the reinjure and followup surgery and I think we are looking at a gimpy Votto for the Rest of the season. When Monday arrives there will be 27 games left, I am willing to bet he doesn’t play but in about half of those and won’t play more then 2 nights in a row. I still say we are risking long term issues here if he is not pain free when he tries to play…

  • Sultan of Swaff

    Great analysis Richard. My main takeaway is that for every spot you move down in the order, that’s 18 less at bats per season. I don’t know about you, but it wouldn’t have killed me to see Stubbs or Cozart bat ~100 times less each. And truth be told, it probably would’ve benefited those guys as well.

    The silver lining to Billy Hamilton not getting called up is that he is listed as an OF for the Arizona Fall League. I read that to mean the Reds have finally folded on Drew Stubbs and that it won’t be his job to lose next spring. More to the point, I’ll be shocked if he’s on the roster next season.

    • WVRedlegs

      The silver lining to Billy Hamilton not getting called up is that he is listed as an OF for the Arizona Fall League. I read that to mean the Reds have finally folded on Drew Stubbs and that it won’t be his job to lose next spring. More to the point, I’ll be shocked if he’s on the roster next season.

      The Reds are going to have to address the issues of Rolen at 3B and Ludwick in LF for next year, before they tackle the Stubbs issue. If the Reds win a World Series title, then I believe Rolen probably retires. If they don’t, I could see Rolen wanting to play one more year since he has had a very good second half. Ludwick may decline his mutual option to be a free agent to get his one chance at a bigger contract. Reds may have a chance to re-sign him, but he may get more richer offers than what the Reds will pay. I think they will give Stubbs one more year to turn it around. I can also see the Reds moving him over to LF and platoon with Heisey there next year, if Ludwick goes elsewhere. And then sign or trade for a CF that can leadoff. The starting pitching is pretty well setled for a few years and so to is most of the bullpen. The bench, a leadoff hitter, Rolen and Ludwick will be the big areas to address this winter. I forgot about the Dusty issue too. That may be issue #1. Not alot for Walt’s plate this winter, but enough to keep him busy.

  • Sultan of Swaff

    Looks like Juan Pierre cleared waivers. In 333 at-bats, he’s got a .706 OPS w/ 20/19 strikeout/walk ratio, 32-37 in stolen base attempts. Clearly a guy who can make contact who might work well as a pinch hitter/baseruner. He’s owed $160k the rest of the season. Surely it wouldn’t take but a C level prospect to do the deal.

    Think we should acquire him before midnight? I’m leaning yes.

    • BloodyHo

      @Sultan of Swaff:

      Looks like Juan Pierre cleared waivers. Think we should acquire him before midnight? I’m leaning yes.

      Sultan, this is exactly the role so many are advocating for Hamilton. The difference is that Pierre has proven effective at the ML level in filling this role. Someone would have to com eoff the 40 man roster, but I’m in favor of the move if something can be down in time to obtain Pierre
      for a LH pinch hitter and pinch runner for the rest of the season and the post season. He would be an additional weapon.

  • Sultan of Swaff

    p.s. Pierre hits .326 vs. righties, .167 vs. lefties.

    • WVRedlegs

      p.s. Pierre hits .326 vs. righties, .167 vs. lefties.

      Plus, he is a pretty good bunter. A skill that is terribly lacking in the Reds dugout. It might be worth a gamble. if it doesn’t work, just release him.
      Hey, Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

  • @WVRedlegs: I think Hamilton is still a full year away.

    Heisey and Stubbs have both had enough chances. Once is a (very) good bench player who can’t quite make the step up to being an every day. The other one I think is simply running out of time and chances before he becomes a 25th man type, the pinch runner used late to make sure a tying or lead run scores from 1st on a gapper or corner ball or is the defensive replacement to help protect a 1 or 2 run lead late.

    The Reds may need to use one of these two as a regular to bridge the gap to Hamilton or whoever; but please no more of the idea of a righty/ righty platoon just to give these two more of a chance. It is time to move on.

    Actually, Stubbs best career path could be to get to the American League where a team could afford to let him play everyday for his defense while batting 9th. Perhaps the Reds can make a deal to send him to the AL and get something of use in return.

    • Richard Fitch

      Heisey and Stubbs have both had enough chances.

      I know this is beating a dead horse here, but it’s still laying here, so I take a whack.

      I still think Heisey might be an everyday player. I know his plate discipline is a huge shortcoming, but I think he’s been put into a situation that’s unique on the club. Dusty has already said publicly that he doesn’t think he’s an everyday player. And Chris knows that the small chance he has to turn his manager around is to not just do well, but to get multiple hits every start he gets. He knows he won’t get much credit for taking a walk from Dusty, so he swings at pitches he otherwise might take.

      When Stubbs went out with an injury a while back, Heisey knew that no matter how well he played, he was back on the bench as soon as Stubbs was ready.

      Now, he watches the way other players have stepped up in Joey’s absence and he wants to be part of that, too. So, more over-aggressiveness at the plate. I think it becomes a vicious cycle. And, yet somehow, he’s hitting for decent average. And last year, he hit quite a few HRs for the playing time he got.

      If a manager gave him the job for 2 months and he didn’t have to look over his shoulder if he went 1-14, I wonder what he’d do?

  • TC

    We’re not worthy, Richard. Well done.

  • BloodyHo

    I’ve heard a lot of poeple mention this Bill James cat, but I’ve never read any of his work. Is he free lance or does he write for someone specific? Or maybe books as opposed to periodicals?

  • dn4192

    Reds announce Sept. Callups..

    Sat:

    Gregorius
    Ondrusek
    Phipps
    Rodriguez

    Sun:

    Mesoraco

    Tues:

    Villarreal
    Redmond

  • @Hank Aarons Teammate: I think more and more that I was correct and this issue ins’t going to be resolved for good until he has serious work done in there. In the meantime they are hoping to have him strong enough to be a consistent and major playoff contributor.

    • dn4192

      @Hank Aarons Teammate: I think more and more that I was correct and this issue ins’t going to be resolved for good until he has serious work done in there. In the meantime they are hoping to have him strong enough to be a consistent and major playoff contributor.

      didn’t they already say more indepth knee work was planned for this offseason?

  • seat101

    I do not believe Scott Rolen will be with the Reds as a player next year. Does anyone?

  • seat101

    Crickets.
    Where is everyone?

  • Mark Tokar

    I had the same surgery as Votto. I am older, of course, and we are all different. (For instance, I don’t have his amazing athletic skills.) But the doctor told me recovery would be 3-4 weeks. It was 3-4 months before I was healed and during that time pain and swelling were constant. However, being on the knee, hiking and walking up mountains did not damage it further. It just hurt.

    He’ll be 100% in 2013.

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