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Let’s recap tonight’s titanic struggle….
FINAL
St. Louis 8
Cincinnati 5
W: J. Kelly (4-5)
L: M. Latos (10-4)
S: J. Motte (30)
BOX SCORE
POSITIVES
–Todd Frazier reached base four times, going 3-4 with a walk, a run scored, and an RBI.
–Scott Rolen had two hits, including a double. Brandon Phillips and Ryan Ludwick had two hits each.
NEGATIVES
–I’m still not sure what happened there. The Reds were cruising through five innings, up 5-2. Mat Latos came out to the mound to start the sixth, and for whatever reason, the wheels fell off immediately. Latos gave up five runs in that inning alone (Alfredo Simon gave up another), and he ended with a pretty ugly line: seven runs allowed on nine hits and a walk, in 5+ innings.
NOT-SO-RANDOM THOUGHTS
–When I say the Reds were cruising, I mean it. This game looked like it was going to be easy from the beginning…then, boom. The Reds never challenged after that six-run sixth inning.
–I’m so tired of Yadier Molina.
–Okay, forget about it. The Reds are going to retire Barry Larkin’s #11 tomorrow. That’s gonna be a fun time.
Source: FanGraphs
Well, at least there’s no pressure on Leake to keep the sweep, right? Relax and have fun. BP & the lineup should be real p*ssed though. GO REDS!
That was ugly,thats a game the Reds should have had. Before everyone goes gloom and doom all the Reds have to do is win 1 game and they have a 6 game lead monday, they have a much easier schedule than does ST.Louis,
The Reds figure to hold on and win the division given the number of games left and schedules of the contenders. However that said, there are all sortd of indications their pitching is starting to wear thin. Cueto hasn’t really been “Cueto” since the AS break. Homer looks to have hit a wall after being consistent all year topped by the best 5 weeks of his MLB career. Leake has been in and out. Now tonight Latos absolutely crashes in flames after 5 innings of “cruising”
I think they really need to get some help from somewhere or they could end up in the playoffs but with all their starters running on empty,
What? Cueto has been fantastic since the All-Star break. The Reds are 6-2 in his eight starts since the break with an ERA under 2! Bailey did have four tough outings in a row but was fantastic the last time out and they have said it was a mechanical flaw and before last night Latos has been just as good as Cueto. Before last night Latos had given up 7 earned runs over his last 42.1 innings pitch.
Take nothing away from Cueto on results; but, he is grinding versus dominating as he did earlier in the season. That he has learned how to grind is a very good thing and perhaps the final step in his ascension to being a true ace. However the fact he is grinding virtually every time out even versus weaker opponents is a sign he is wearing down.
Creeping mechanical faults and mental errors (and the failure to suck up and over come them, i.e. Bailey streak and Latos last night) are signs of the same.
All I was saying was that they need somebody other than the core 5 to take some starts in the last month to save further wear and tear on the rotation.
Cueto’s WHIP is lower post All Star Break, and he is striking out more hitters.
The stats don’t back you up. You are watching a different game than I’m watching.
Tonight I felt sort of like the Paul Simon song, Cecelia. The Rdds were ahead 4-1 so I went on and did my outdoor workout only to return to an hour later and discover they were trailing 8-5….
This comment brought to you by the committee to have Aroldis bean Molina with a 100+ mph fastball.
Didn’t see the game, Dusty pretty much said the Reds stunk, swinging at a lot of pitches in the dirt. Can’t recall him complaining before about hitters being too aggressive.
He blamed Latos’ not covering first on Beltran’s grounder for setting up the 6 run rally. He did add that Latos made a good pitch to Craig on the 3 run HR.
Latos said his spikes got caught on the mound on Beltran’s ground ball to first. Then he wondered why a guy who hits so many HRs would slide into first.
It’s almost as if the Cardinals were trying to win !
Some lost opportunities early on, two bases loaded one out situations with no runs scored. In both case Latos made one of the outs, but a lot of wringing of hands on other web sites anyway. Even Dusty mentioned Latos’ check swing on ball 4 that would have made it 6-2, then Cozart’s drive would be 7-2.
Seems like the Reds would have had trouble holding the lead anyway.
That was easily the Reds best pitching matchup for the series, so don’t have a good feeling right now. Leake and/or Bailey need to come thru and cool off the Cardinals’ bats.
This team is simply not ready for the big stage for playoff and World Series games. Should have put away a depleted Philly team on Thursday night. Now, Latos goes dunderhead on us, he forgets location of his pitches. Seems our biggest fear will come true..we make the playoffs but get quickly eliminated because of continued shortcomings and NO Corrections/Improvements done. Stubbs. He simply refuses to modify his thought process to cut his swing down and hit to the opposite field. He may not be very bright. Bruce, on occasion suffers from the same problem and adds defensive lapses in the outfield (last game at AT & T Park). Is he really an All-Star? Bailey and Leake. Not sure what to say, both inconsistent and cannot hold leads. Bailey never has lived up to the hype. He really is a 4 plus ERA pitcher and a .500 pitcher, at best. Note to Jocketty: are you watching what we are watching?
Right now, this team is not playing real well. Even the split in Philly showed the same cracks, not taking advantage of many opportunities to put the other team away, the rotation being inconsistent, and the bullpen being fairly ineffective. I hope it’s just a bump in the road, not the team wearing down from a long grind.
People are getting too bent out of shape. A split on the road vs Halladay, Lee and Hamels is not a bad outcome. Yes, last night was painful, but let’s see how the good guys respond today and tomorrow. After the 12-5 loss last week there was some grumbling about an impending sweep that never materialized.
Regardless of the outcome of this series, the Reds are in a nice position. On this date in 1990, they were 72-53, up by 6.5 games.
Posted at the start of the Game Thread yesterday:
I was a little uneasy after Phillips got screened by the 2nd base umpire and wasn’t able to make the play on Molina’s grounder up the middle in the 2nd inning, but sometimes things happen and I certainly didn’t fault Phillips on that play.
When Beltran hit that screamer down the 1st base line that Super Todd speared and then came up to complete the out at 1B, only to discover that someone didn’t have their head screwed on straight and forgot to cover 1B, I was more than uneasy that a victory over the dreaded Birds just wasn’t in the cards. Dag blast it anyway!
I was glad that Simon was able to spare the bullpen after the wheels came off. Phillips (2-5), Ludwick (2-5), Frazier (3-4, BB) & Rolen (2-5, 2B) had good games at the plate, we just didn’t get much before or after the middle of the lineup. Now let’s hope the Reds shake it off and bring their A game this afternoon.
Thursday was painful because of the black hole offensively/defensively of the Cairo/Valdez combo that Dusty decided to throw out there. Pretty much cost the game if you ask me.
Completely agree.
@Petaluma Reds Fan: Bailey is 7-2 in 12 starts away from GABP this season with a 2.91ERA and a 1.17WHIP.
…Jay Bruce – Agreed. He isn’t perfect. Jockety should have got us a perfect RF’er before the trade deadline.
…Stubbs – Tend to agree with your general point about Stubbs. Not sure questioning his intelligence was called for. I’m pretty sure you couldn’t hit major league pitching worth a damn…Does that mean your not too bright also?
It’s amazing how after a bad loss the usual suspects show up with their shy is falling crap. Like someone said the other week – If you guys are looking for perfection you’re following the wrong sport and you can’t be getting much, if any, enjoyment from what has been a really fun and exciting season to be a Reds fan.
Out of The Cards 8 starting position players last nigh 5 of them are hitting over .300 with the other 3 .299, .276, and .269…
Impressive.
cmon – who made the line up ??? who put Heisey on the bench and STUBBS on the field ??? Who put Frazier (hottest hitting RED) in the 6 spot in the line up ??? Who pulled Latos at the worst time ??? Who’s commandered the team to be a home run derby contest every game ????? Where are the commands to exexute small ball and get runs on the board ????
And you know what we have to look forward to on Saturday’s nationally-televised day game right after a night game? Rolen on the bench and Cairo at first. Ugh.
@OhioJim: Not sure if it’s the pitchers that are fatigued or just general complacency after beating up on an easy schedule over the last few months, but I agree. I’m really concerned that this team is not prepared to face tough, playoff-level competition. Then again, it could just be a late August, “can’t win-em all” type game, and they put it back in gear during September/October. Maybe Votto comes back soon and immediately resumes his +1.000 ops ways, and our pitching goes back to its more shut-down like ways. Here’s to hoping.
I remember in 2010 The Reds and Cards played, 1 team got swept the other team won the division. People its 1 game I know they should have won but stop the doom and gloom ok!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! They are up 6 and with a much easier schedule.
Saying that just makes it worse since already in 2012 the Reds and Cards played and 1 team got swept- the Cards.
We had a glitch with the site last night and a few comments were lost on this thread, including three of my own. To boil down what I said: (1) Can we go back to playing the Cubs and AAstros soon, (2) The team was outplayed and outmanaged by another team with a greater sense of urgency, (3) the opening of high school football in Cincinnati, Dayton and Northern Kentucky probably affected attendance at GABP, which was still 90% full.
Let us hope that after today’s game we aren’t thinking, “wouldn’t it be great if the Yanks/Sox has a series this weekend”.
@Steve Mancuso:Steve, is there a specific ‘book’ for official Scorers? A set of guidelines, maybe, on, say, when a hit is a double and an error rather than a triple?
Reminder on the commenting guidelines: (1) don’t attack other commenters personally, (2) no profanity or vulgarity.
Regarding profanity: The rule isn’t for some legal reason, it’s because the site owner wants to keep the site clean and readable for all family members and due to his belief that you can communicate your idea in a civil way, without using it. That’s his right and choice and I support him.
Using censor bypass words like this: Joey #otto isn’t consistent with the purpose of the rule here because it is essentially equally vulgar.
Please keep it clean, even in frustration. Thanks, and Go Reds!
Well I guess I got busted for my ‘Dag blast it anyway’ comment…
No, it’s my potty mouth. I sincerely do apologize to everyone in and on the Nation. I get excited and frustrated, especially losing to tough teams like the Phils and Cards, and since I cannot verbally express my frustration (I have a six and four year old) in my living room, I go and vent on the thread. Not an excuse, though, because even though my children can’t read yet, I should know better that others’ can. I truly do apologize. The good news is today’s tv broadcast will be blacked out for me (I can only get Braves/Giants), so it’s WLW. Somehow I don’t get so angry if I can’t actually see the Cardinals. Let’s regroup, hit like crazy, pile on the runs today and tomorrow and take the next two from these guys! GO REDS!
@CharlotteNCRedsFan: “Yanks Sox”? Is that like a wedgie for a foot fetishist?
@seat101: It’s ultimately a judgment call by the official scorer. Although MLB does have a rather extensive set of rules and ‘comments’ for official scorers. Rule 10 covers many circumstances for the scorer, but not every one.
One way to measure power hitters is to add together their doubles and home runs. Only three hitters in all MLB have more (2B+HR) than Jay Bruce.
Miguel Cabrera 64
Albert Pujols 62
Robinson Cano 59
Jay Bruce 57
Josh Hamilton 57
Ryan Braun 57
Pretty good company.
Also, Joey Votto is still #4 in MLB in doubles.
@Steve Mancuso: What is even more amazing about these stats is that both Pujols & Cabrara play half of their games on fields that more resemble fairways.
We need Jay to produce the next couple of games or any stats can be thrown up but they won’t mean squat come Monday morning.
@Steve Mancuso: Thank you very much for the link.
Wondering if I could get some help?I tried yesterday to copy a portion of Bloodyho’s comment I copyed and pasted it didn’t look right.What am I doing wrong?
I noticed that yesterday Steel. I think I can help with this one. Next to the date and time on each entry is a ‘Quote’ option. If you click that option it adds the text necessary to offset the quote and it also copies the verbiage from the post. You can also just typ the proper commands yourself to start the quote and end the quote. I hope that made sense.
Boys & Girls, the Birds have a formidible lineup that can simply crush the baseball. They have 5 (count ‘em…5) starters hitting above .300, 6 (count ‘em…6) staters with an OBP of .370 or above, and 7 (count ‘em…7) starters with an OPS above .800. The only non-dominant hitting starter is their SS with a hitting line of .269/.332/.354. That’s simply getting it done. What the Birds don’t have is SUPER TODD!!! Go Reds!!!
Oh, the other thing they don’t have is a manager who insists on hitting the catcher 8th so he doesn’t clog up the bases, a manager who insists on hitting the SS at the top of the order rather than 8th even though he gets on base less than anyone else in the lineup, and a manager who leaves his starter in to give up the game when the starter doesn’t have it or has completely lost if it is early in the game.
Cardinals lineup with OBP (Reds OBP in parentheses):
Jay .390 (.295)
Beltran .348 (.293)
Holliday .379 (.329)
Craig .379 (.342)
Molina .379 (.334)
Freese .390 (.357)
Schumaker .378 (.324)
Furcal .332 (.382)
The Reds have one excellent OBP in their lineup and, of course, he bats eighth. The Reds are literally playing with an upside down lineup.
Wow
You might as well bat Joey Votto leadoff when he comes back to at least get him to the plate more often if you are going to bat your top top 3 out makers right in front of him (Pitcher, sub .300 OBP, sub .300 OBP).
Reality check time.
The Cardinals are a better team than the Reds. Thankfully the Reds have a 6 game lead.
The idea that there is no way the Cardinals will win the Central is misguided. As of today coolstandings.com has the Cardinals at 16% to win the Central. After the Cardinals win the next two games, and does anyone really doubt that they have a huge advantage in the next two games (yesterday was the one to win), it should be around 25%.
The Cards have much better hitting and a rotation ERAs of 2.61, 3.26, 3.65, 3.67, and 4.00. The 4.00 is Garcia, who is healthy and very likely to be way better the rest of the year. The 3.65 is Wainwright, who is very likely to be way better than that also. Their rotation is better than the Reds. They have fixed their bullpen problems. In fact the advantage even at the end of the bullpen is not so much for the Reds. The Cards have an excellent 9th inning guy, of course not as good as Chapman, but they trust their 8th inning guy, whereas Dusty Baker runs to put in Sam Lecure in the 8th because he does not trust his 8th inning guys. One, Marshall, he doesn’t like and the other one, Broxton, is apparently able to pitch about 1 inning per week and is “unavailable” the other 6 days.
Votto’s return will not make as much of a difference as people think. Probably two days per week Frazier will play 3rd. Some days Frazier will probably play 1st. So the change most days will be Votto instead of Frazier. That’s a plus, but not a huge plus.
This is not a situation like in the NL East, where the Nats have about the same size lead as the Reds, but the Nats are better than the Braves. There is almost no way the Nats will be caught. The Reds could be caught.
The Reds are really good. The Cards are better. I’d rather be the Reds with the 6 game lead, but the Cards winning the Central would not surprise me.
True, but only to a point. If you look at it only as Frazier will replace either Votto or Rolen in the lineup, it is not a huge advantage. But if you look at the larger picture – Votto’s return means less chance Cairo or Valdez plays one of the corner positions – it’s huge.
Here’s how I’d be lining the Reds up without Votto, or at least something like it:
Phillips
Frazier
Bruce
Ludwick
Rolen
Hanigan
Stubbs
Cozart
Pitcher
@Tom Diesman: It was noted on the Little League World Series telecast a couple of nights ago that they teams there tended to bat their top three hitters in the #1-3 slots. I sort of went Hmmmm…..
@Steve Mancuso: I like your lineup especially if Phillips is playing with fully functional wheels. Right now I think he is somewhat impaired and at times playing not to get more severely hurt. But I’m not sure the Reds have a better choice for now either.
@Hank Aarons Teammate:
The Cardinals may in fact be better than the Reds. But I would be VERY surprised if they win the division. It would require a poor finish for the Reds as I do not believe the Cards will play 70% baseball the rest of the way. I doubt they have played that well over a similar period of time all year but I am too lazy to check it up.
@Hank Aarons Teammate: More K’s means more pitches thrown. Three years ago the mantra was that he needed to learn how to get outs without K’s so he could become more pitch efficient which he has done. He has gone 6 innings or less (twice) in 4 of his last 9 starts.
Nobody ever said that. Strikeouts are always a good thing. There is no luck involved when you are striking people out.
@OhioJim: He’s averaging a bit over 6 1/2 innings per start this year. In his last 5 games he’s gone 7 twice, 8 twice, and then the Phillies game where he struggled. If he was getting tired I’d expect the last 5 starts to look a bit different than his other starts.
@Truman48: I doubt the Reds collapse. As I said, the Reds still have the upper hand, though if they are 4 games up after this weekend, not as much so.
I don’t think a red-hot Cards finish is out of the question. Their schedule difficulty is overstated. They have 4 very tough games against the Nats coming up, but their 3 against the Nats in September will likely be after the Nats have clinched. They play LA, but so do the Reds. They play Pittsburgh coming up, and Pittsburgh is dead in the water. Facing Burnett and McDonald may have been tough a few months ago, but Burnett is vastly overrated and McDonald has been pitching more like Bill Bray than anything else.
And then the Reds “easy” schedule includes considering the Phillies games easy because their record is bad. I think we know that will be anything but.
@OhioJim: One last thing. More K’s does not mean more pitches, actually it means fewer.
http://www.twinkietown.com/2011/5/10/2163382/the-fallacy-of-pitching-to-contact
@Hank Aarons Teammate: Great link! Even the math was understadable.
@Truman48: If one team is 6 games better than another team over ~130 games and the consensus is that the team with worse record has played the easier part of their schedule and the team with the better record has an easier schedule ahead of them, then I think it is fair to say the team with the better record is the better of the two teams. The team with the worse record may appear to have superior individual performers and component units (pitching offense et al) but their performance as a team doesn’t measure up to the other team’s performance as a team.
Now Ohio Jim, I am not saying I believe it. I was just saying saying that for argument’s sake. Plus the Reds aren’t likely to just be a .500 in the remaining games which seems to be the requirement for belief that a Cardinals’ comeback is possible.
@OhioJim: Reminds me of A Night At The Opera….”The party of the second part, with the party of the first part….
@seat101: But it misses a possibly important component,double play, aka the pitcher’s best friend
@OhioJim: hmmmmm lemme read it again.
@Truman48: I figured as much, just offer you some moral support….