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Let’s recap tonight’s titanic struggle….
FINAL
New York (NL) 0
Cincinnati 3
W: J. Arredondo (5-2)
L: M. Acosta (1-3)
BOX SCORE
POSITIVES
–After striking out a couple times earlier (in pretty ugly fashion), Jay Bruce redeemed himself in the bottom of the ninth with a three-run walkoff homer to give the Reds an exciting win. Bruce also doubled earlier in the game.
–The Reds wouldn’t have been in position for Bruce’s homer to win it were it not for another brilliant performance by Mat Latos. Latos went seven shutout innings, surrendering only five hits. Latos has just been brilliant lately. He’s allowed one run in his last three starts.
–Zack Cozart (2-4 with a double and a walk), Brandon Phillips (0-2, 3 walks, 1 run scored), and Ryan Hanigan (2-3 with a walk) each reached base three times. Ryan Ludwick was 2-5 with a double and a run scored.
–Dusty Baker used Sean Marshall in a tie game in the eighth inning, which is a pretty good spot. Kudos to Dusty. Marshall responded by pitching a shutout inning. (Question: if the Reds had been up by a run, would Baker have used Marshall or would he have used Jonathan Broxton? I think I know the answer, and it baffles me.)
–Drew Stubbs made a wonderful defensive play in the top of the ninth that prevented the Mets from scoring. Phillips and Todd Frazier also made excellent defensive plays that saved runs and/or extra bases.
NEGATIVES
–The offense was pretty poor until the ninth inning. The Reds did get 11 hits, but they stranded 14 runners. The Mets stranded ten, and for a while, it looked like neither team would ever score again. Both teams combined to go 0-18 with runners in scoring position (before the last swing of the night, of course).
–I mentioned Bruce’s strikeouts above, but it bears repeating, because they were two of the worst ABs I’ve seen in a while. Let’s not compare him to Joey Votto, because that isn’t a fair comparison to anyone, but you never see Votto look anything other than locked in at the plate. Bruce was flailing up there during those two strikeouts. It was painful to watch.
Bruce’s last AB of the night, however, shows why he has frustrated Marty Brennaman to the point where Marty’s hair has fallen out. Bruce was completely locked in. He fouled off a couple of tough two-strike pitches, then drilled an opposite-field homer. I don’t know why Bruce has stretches where he doesn’t swing at any bad pitches, but then has other stretches where he swings at everything.
I don’t think the problem is that Bruce isn’t trying hard enough. That’s too simplistic. The concentration does seem to wane at times, for whatever reason. Maybe he’s just a kid and he’s still learning?
NOT-SO-RANDOM THOUGHTS
–Reds win in exciting fashion, Pirates get killed by the Dodgers. Reds lead in the Central is extended to six games. Life is good.
–You know, Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos make a pretty good 1-2 punch in the rotation. Look around the league. There aren’t many teams that can match those two. If and when the Reds get into the playoffs, they should be in a much better position than they were in 2010 to actually stick around for more than three games.
–Game thread comment of the night, from Sergeant2:
26,113 turned out for tonight’s titanic struggle, 26,113. What a coincidence, that’s the same number of runners the Reds have left on base tonight.
–In the ninth inning of the Pittsburgh game:
Pirates announcer just said “There’s always tomorrow.” Then started talking about the Cardinals and the Wild Card race. Me like.
#reds— Redleg Nation (@redlegnation) August 15, 2012
–That was Bruce’s sixth career walkoff hit, and his fourth career walkoff homer.
–The Reds need a better start from Mike Leake tomorrow than they’ve gotten recently.
Source: FanGraphs
Electric atmosphere at the ball park tonight, especially the last couple innings. The crowd stood the entire bottom of the ninth inning.
That’s TWO game winning home runs in a row for Jay Bruce, both hit with the score tied 0-0. The Reds have scored six runs in the last two games and Jay Bruce has driven in five of them. He still leads the club in HR and RBI.
Mat Latos didn’t have his dominating stuff tonight. Hardly any swings and misses. He fooled the Mets hitters with his curve a few times, but he really worked hard for seven shutout innings.
Brandon Phillips walked three times. Good for him.
The Reds bench players still stink.
Something to look at about Ryan Hanigan. The Reds are 46-23 when Ryan Hanigan starts. His CERA is 3.02.
Hanigan also happens to catch for two of our better pitchers. Coorelation does not always imply causation.
I also don’t think you can discount Hangian’s contributions behind the plate when he catches those guys. He calls a good game and plays tremendous defense. Plus, Latos has been hitting the ball pretty well lately and helping himself out – a lot of times he’s been doing it with Ryan Hanigan on base in front of him.
I do not. But this is not the first time that a poster used these numbers to suggest that Hanigan is vastly better than Mesoraco behind the plate. Maybe he is, maybe he isn’t, but it is not entirely fair to Mesoraco to use the ERA figure when Hanigan catches our aces.
Where did I post and say that Hanigan was better than Mes? I enjoy watching Mes at the plate, he is always something fun to see. In no way was I saying that Hanigan is better than Mes. Do I personally think he can call a game better than Mes right now? Yes. In future years Mes will be better but he is still a rookie. Hanigan is still very underrated and does not get the appreciation he deserves. There is a reason he comes into the game when Chapman or Arroyo are on the mound.
@CaptainTonyKW: Correct!
would like to point out that Jay has the game winning homer in 2 straight games and the guy was getting blasted by some on here as last as the pitch before the walk-off.
But I just want to know what that did for his clutch / late stats….
I still think it’s the Cardinals and not the Pirates that bear watching the scoreboard for. St. Louis has shown they can turn it up at the end of the year – the Pirates, not so much (see 2011 as proof for both teams). That said, I like where the Reds sit right now and the mere thought of getting Votto back at some point in the future means the Reds add a piece unlike that which any other team can hope to replicate via the waiver/trade route.
I thought everyone wanted more runners to reach base? Well, at least the Reds got plenty of baserunners throughout the game.
Like with Cueto I was hoping for more strikeouts in such a good start. Three for Cueto in his last time out, four for Latos tonight. Oh well.
After getting extra time off Jay Bruce has now hit homeruns in two consecutive starts. Maybe the time off wasn’t a bad idea.
It’s interesting how exciting a game can be even when nothing happens. I was impressed by how many fans seem to have stuck around GABP for the 9th inning.
@CeeKeR: Not only are the Reds set to activate Joey Votto eventually but the only team with a better record, the Washington Nationals, is planning to voluntarily shut down a player of comparable importance in Stephen Strasburg. HA. One of the few teams with a better 1-2 punch than Cueto and Latos is just going to see how far they can get into the playoffs without a key player. Hopefully Votto can beat up on Strasburg’s replacement in the playoffs.
@theybege: @theybege: Blasted is a little strong.
Dusty acknowledged Jays recent slump in his presser.
Redleg Nation is unanimous in its desire to go back to complaining about Thom and Chris……glad to see Jay earn his way off the hot seat.
I know the RISP and LOB numbers in the game tonight look bad taken on the whole …but I’ll say this – I give some of the credit to the Mets pitchers. Yes, I know their season numbers are terrible, but when we had guys on base with two outs, they made a number of very good pitches. Two examples: 1) the Stubbs at bat in the 6th – bases loaded two outs, Ramirez throws two fastballs right on the inside corner (or just inside) and gets the strike calls, then throws a perfect pitch on the outside corner at the knees and Stubbs hits a harmless ground ball. In my mind those were three perfect pitches – I don’t really blame Stubbs there. 2) Bruce’s strikeout with one on in the 7th – Bruce strikes outs swinging at a pitch that he honestly could not reach, because the previous pitch was called a strike outside the zone – a good job taking advantage of the zone by Parnell.
Anyway…the numbers overall are bad, but it seemed to me that the Mets made some uncharacteristically (sp?) good pitches in tight spots. I think if our pitchers had managed the game the way their pitches did Reds fans would be praising them…just an idea.
Jay Bruce: ” We left a village on base tonight.” .
Never heard that before. I love it.
@gpickup11: Strong comment. Welcome to RN.
Not surprisingly, a lot of discussion about Jay Bruce late in the game thread. I feel he tries too hard, puts too much pressure on himself. Others pointed out that the solution there is focus and ultimately confidence. I wish I’d actually seen his final AB. I could gather from Reds radio and Gameday that he was fouling off some tough pitches.
I’ve heard the following more often about Jay Bruce than any other athlete: “If he only knew how good he is.” It’s true that just a decent swing from him and the ball is out of the park.
@gpickup11: Yeh, where have you been ? The Mets were making good pitches when they most needed. And we’re going to see more good pitching from them over the next two games.
The Reds pitchers did the same, it’s easy to overlook that the Mets also had a lot of scoring opportunities. Great clutch pitching by Latos and Marshall, and defense by Stubbs.
I was happy to see Marshall in the 8th. Dusty used him because three lefties were coming up after Wright and Broxton’s arm is sore (wasn’t even available on Sunday). Marshall pitched well, he was smart to pitch around Wright.
Beyond the fact that it was a game winning hit, the guy hit an opposite field home run against a lefty that was kind of impressive to me. The Mets were working him outside all night. True it was a GABP homer, probably an out in almost any other park, but it counts in Cincy.
Chris Young’s season is pretty meh overall, but he pitched a pretty decent game against the Reds earlier this year. He seems to be one of those pitchers that isn’t far from being something good and injuries seems to be his drawback.
I’m sure ESPN and whoever looks at Homer or say Mike Leake’s numbers overall thinks…yeah that guy isn’t that all that, but you watch them all the time, you see when it clicks and you know the guy can pitch.
Talk about winning with pitching and defense. Latos didn’t have his best stuff but shuts them out for 7 innings. I like him more and more. He battles like Cueto !
I didn’t see BP’s diving catch in the 4th until after the game: what a fabulous play, and saved 2 runs.
Old schoolers complain that the shoestring catch has disappeared in favor of unnecessary dives and sliding catches. Stubbs made a heck of a shoestring catch tonite to bail the Reds out in the top of the 9th.
After video review: Stubbs got back to first base quickly on BP’s line drive, and looks like he was safe.
Part of the Reds not scoring despite all those hits and walks was just plain bad luck. Always a big part of the game.
Latos is a ballplayer. I bet the dude was a pretty good hitter in high school and you got to like the barehanded stab on the come backer.
I think Latos and even Homer (more on the road) could put up a good start in the playoffs.
Regarding Latos….
A wise man once said, “You don’t hit a drunk in a bar fight with your pitching hand.” A pitcher should protect his pitching hand.
This is one if Votto plays it could have been a blow out. BP doesn’t get 3 walks very often, if ever. They pitched around him, they can’t do that with Joey in the lineup.
With both Joey and Rolen out, this is not such a good lineup. The biggest problem is the lack of LHed hitting, both in the lineup and off the bench. A lot of RHed pitchers, like Young tonite, are much more effective against righties than lefties. The Reds have a challenge on their hands every time they face such a pitcher.
If the Reds had a power hitting LHed bat off the bench instead of Cairo, I wonder how many more wins they’d have. Even if it’s only two, that’s a big difference.
@Steve Mancuso:
You’re right about how electric it was tonight, i was wayyyy up in the right field nosebleeds but i couldnt hear a thing in the bottom of the 9th.
as for runners LOB, I looked at my brother in the 8th and said “what is that 12 left on?” took a quick at the score board and my brother’s reply, “14, oh good, its worse”
@earl: I had the same thought of how easily the game could have been a blowout if Joey were in the lineup. For one thing, another LHed bat against Young.
I’m liking the 2012 Reds. Ludwick is cool by me. I got to think he has punched his ticket for being back next year. They got to get him some work at 1st next year, as you got to think ‘THE TODD’ is the regular 3b next year.
@RedsFan29: Welsh was talking again in the broadcast about how Hannigan frames pitches for the ump. I couldn’t agree with him more. If its where he is set up… he lets it stay there for a sec until the umpire makes the call. He is a true pitchers friend… and perhaps the most underrated Red. I was listening to the broadcast on the radio when the catcher’s interference call happened…anyone see it?
Hanigan tried to get a jump on the runner stealing second, reached too far forward to get the incoming pitch and clipped the bat.
@rewquiop:
Only saw one AB last night, the final one (now THAT is time management). DVR’d the game and watching now while I work. Just saw the interference call a few minutes ago. Hanigan was “side saddling” the plate with Valdespin on first. Like many tall RH pitchers, Latos struggles to keep baserunners from getting big jumps on SB attempts (16 SB’s on 18 ATT this year). So Hanigan was catching with his right foot forward to get throws off quicker. With Valdespin running the batter’s bat apparently ticked the leather as Hanigan reached for the ball. Neither Hanigan or the Reds argued the call.
I think that the other stats that I heard during that AB are: (1) that Hanigan has the best ERA for his catching appearances in the league (not surprised), and (2) that Hanigan has thrown out approx. 57% of base stealers, a heckuva %.
How about this for a negative…. Latos pitched 7 shutout innings and didn’t get the decision.
On second thought, it kind of balances out his June 18th outing when he gave up 7 runs over 4 innings and didn’t get the decision either.
Remember all the Latos haters?
And, you’re trying to imply all of it wasn’t justified? Latos even admitted he wasn’t performing up to standards. What, you are going to like a player who doesn’t perform up to standards? There were plenty of questions with him coming from a park like the Padres in the first place. This coming from a Latos fan.
Leaving a “village” on base was a definite negative, BUT, as gpickup11 alludes to above, the home plate ump was awfully generous with the strike call tonight.
@CaptainTonyKW: I still think Mesoraco has a lto of potential, but it’s starting to look an awful lot like he could have used another full-time season in Louisville. Not that he wasn’t ready to start playing in the majors, but he needs to be playing everyday at this point in his development. I’m not sure if the plan was to start giving him more playing time as the season went by and Hanigan’s performance just made that illogical, but I can’t say I’m not a little nervous next year at the prospect of Mes suddenly starting every day. Anyone think there’s a chance they re-sign Hanigan? It’s a weird position to be in. obviously the club is looking at Mes being the everyday guy for the next 5+ years and if that’s how they feel they’re going to have to start treating him like that sooner or later, but at the same time Ryan Hanigan has really shown his worth to this organization and earned another contract. He won’t cost much and he’ll be an absolute bargain at whatever he gets. Maybe you bring him back for 2 year deal and flip the playing time splits – have him catch Cueto and Latos and have Mes catch Bailey, Leake, and hopefully Chapman? Then if Mes looks like he’s definitely ready for the job at the end of next year you could always trade Hanigan’s budget contract to someone looking for a solid defensive pitcher even if his offensive numbers have fallen off a bit.
I don’t think Mesoraco has anything left to prove in Louisville. Why did the Reds keep Mesoraco over Yasmani Grandal? They thought Mesoraco was ready and capable of both fielding and calling games well. They’ve made it pretty clear that they want fielding, not hitting, to he be his priority. Most people have been pretty happy with how he’s caught and called games this season.
Hanigan is set to return for next season and I expect him to play 40 to 60% the time again, like every other season since 2009. I don’t think either catcher is expendable or easily replaceable, nor is either an ‘everyday guy’ to catch every game.
I don’t think he has anything left to PROVE at all. I just think he would benefit from a developmental perspective from getting more playing time. That includes his defense and game calling. I haven’t been particularly impressed with either of those yet, and obviously his hitting is not making up for it. I think from a physical standpoint he’s clearly ready, but he just needs to be playing more often and it doesn’t make sense to take starts away from Hanigan.
Or did I make that all up and Hanigan still has another year left on his deal? Maybe I’m confusing him and Cairo.
@eric nyc:
The Reds signed Hanigan to a club friendly 3 year $4Mil contract for 2011-2013. He’s Arb eligible in 2014, and not a free agent until 2015.
A good signing.
I know it’s easy to say after the fact but…Jay Bruce looked incredibly confident in that last at bat. And specifically his pre-pitch body language prior to the last pitch of the game. It almost seemed like his body was grooving, bat waving to the beat of the GABP atmosphere and I, for one, had a surreal feeling about that correlation, as if Jay and the crowd were in sync in that moment of time. I felt there was no way he wasn’t going to pound that ball somewhere. And if that’s what it takes for Bruce, perhaps GABP should get on their feet and clap whenever he comes to bat, be it the bottom of the 2nd or the bottom of the 9th.
@earmbrister: Er, left foot forward.
For anyone listening to the Reds radio broadcast last night, I would love to hear a recap of Marty’s reaction when Bruce came to bat and following the big blast.
I got to my car and was clear of the parking structure for the post-game show. Marty basically didn’t say anything about Bruce. Brantley went on a long, winding speech about how you can see the pressure on Jay Bruce’s face. That he’s trying too hard. That he feels the weight of everything, with #19 being gone, on his shoulders. That even with the HR tonight you could still see that Bruce wasn’t enjoying the game. I thought it was pretty remarkable – not in either a good or bad way, just a very strangely personal comment by a broadcaster paid by the Reds organization about one of their employee/players.
I can say that Jay Bruce remains very popular, as he should be, with fans inside GABP. The Reds scoreboard operators now do the B-R-U-U-U-U-U-U-C-E thing across the ribbons throughout the stadium, which is extremely cool.
Marty’s vendetta against Bruce is making it impossible for me to keep listening to the radio broadcast. I cringe every time Bruce comes to bat. I literally turned it off a couple times last week.
The organization can’t be happy about the way Marty treats him. It’s one thing for an announcer to criticize how the team is playing in general, but to single out a player like Bruce is really sickening.
Is Brennaman so untouchable that no one can say anything to him about it? If the Reds announced today that Marty had retired suddenly and was being replaced by Jim Kelch, I’d be ecstatic. The only good thing to come from a hostile departure for Marty is that it would make it less likely that his son would take his place in the booth.
Lets not get too carried away with Jay Bruce in the last two games. Good to see some life out of him, and for him to hit a little in the clutch. And off LHer’s at that. Will miracles never cease??
But lets be real, he is still batting ONLY .245. Let’s see if he can continue to hit, or if he’ll just be his usual one week wonder and then disappear again for a long period of time. I am getting used to this with Jay Bruce, you see a glimpse every now and then of a very good ball player, then he just ends up breaking your heart by his lazy, lackluster and unproductive play for extended periods of time. Which in 2012, has been most of the season.
What’s lazy and lackluster is using batting average as the only measure of a player’s hitting. Bruce leads the team in HR and RBI – and is in the top 20 in the majors in both. He is 14th in ISO, which is a measure of raw power, the skill at hitting for extra bases. He’s also top-20 in doubles and top-30 in walk-rate.
“You keep putting them out there, sooner or later somebody is going to score,” Baker said.
I think my brain just exploded.
–I think the whole night could be summed up by BP’s reaction to a waist high 75pmh slider he swung thru from Young around the 5th inning–pure exasperation. It’s like the Reds knew they should be pounding the Mets pithers, but just couldn’t break thru.
–I’ll have to gently disagree on the Stubb’s play in the 9th as being great. He misread it off the bat, broke back, and then had to race in to make the play. Phillips play in the 4th on the other hand……
@Sultan of Swaff: Stubbs didn’t break back on that ball but he did hesitate. It seems he got a bit of a bad read. It was an “at ‘em” ball which are hard to read though. Nice recovery on his part too… Fully agree that the Reds probably felt they should be doing some damage off Young and they were getting frustrated they weren’t pounding him.
Over the last three seasons, only 14 players have hit more home runs than Jay Bruce.
@Steve Mancuso:
Only two Reds have hit 20 or more HR’s in each of their first 5 seasons with the Reds. Bruce and some guy named Frank Robinson.
Attacking Bruce after a great game with a walk-off home run just makes it seem like you have a personal vendetta against the guy. Last time I checked Jay Bruce has only worn a Reds uniform and for that reason alone his good games should only be celebrated.
Bruce is extremely frustrating to watch at times, but as the Redleg Nation staff has pointed out he is young and I’m the first to forget this when he goes up and has awful at-bats. Still, for the money we are paying him, he produces better numbers than alternatives out there. Keep in mind, the hitters (Steroid) era is over. You are not seeing the monster numbers of Avg, HR’s, and RBI’s throughout lineups that you saw in the 2000′s. If Bruce hits .260, with 30 HR’s, and 100 RBI’s, that is very productive for a guy making $5 million a year. Likewise, we are receiving good bang for our buck with Ludwick and the numbers he is putting up. Ideally, I would love to see Bruce hit for better average, but he may not ever be that guy and we may not need him to be that guy to win.
This game shows exactly why the win loss stat is somewhat meaningless for starters. Gives more credibility to those who follow quality starts. What is interesting though is looking at the quality starts for the reds starters:
Ceuto – 18
Homer – 15
Bronson – 13
Latos – 12
Leake – 12
Latos has done that in two more starts than Leake has as well. That gives Latos the lowest Quality Start % out of the Reds rotation (even including last night’s game). Maybe even more surprising is that the Mets have one more quality start on the year than the Reds in the same number of games played. Maybe that has something to do with home ball parks…
Good point, but it also doesn’t do justice to how Latos has rounded into form this season. His April was absolutely abysmal. For the last month or so he’s been pitching like an ace. If he had pitched like this the whole season he’d be a runaway Cy Young winner. Now I’m not saying you should be cherry picking stats, but the fact of the matter is Latos has always been known as a slow starter and he’s done nothing but get better as the season’s gone along. He also has not been known to break down at the end of a season so there’s no reason to think he won’t continue this level of production down the stretch and into October, which makes me positively giddy.
@eric nyc:
I completely agree. I wasn’t pointing out to play down Latos’ accomplishments, but more to show surprise that it wasn’t higher. There almost needs to be another quality start stat. Something like dominate starts where the criteria would be 0 ER in 7+ innings or 1 ER in 8+ innings. Maybe it exists and I just don’t know about it. I would bet that Latos’ dominate starts would be more impressive relative to quality starts.
Having 2 ace starters in the rotation is just awesome!
Exactly. Latos’ “quality starts” especially lately have come in the form of completely dominant performances while Leake, Bailey, and Arroyo’s generally just squeak under the line of that 6-inning/3-run criteria. I hear a lot of broadcasters say it and I agree with it – The definition of “quality start” as it exists right now is garbage. 3 runs over 6 innings is a 4+ ERA. That’s not “quality.” It’s below average. A pitcher that went out every single outing and gave up 3 runs over 6 innings would be demoted to the bullpen by July.
Sorry, I can’t take any HR stats that deal with a player who plays in GAPB. It is obvious Bruce hasn’t broken out. Right now, he seems to me to be a Dave Kingman type of player with a bit better defense. It could be pressure, mental, etc. But, until he gets over it, he’s not going to be any more than he is. IMO, I can see the Reds trading him and/or Stubbs in the next 2-3 years, before Bruce’s contract goes 8 figures per.
Don’t get me wrong. I am a Reds fan. Bruce is a Red, so I am a fan. But, I am also a realist. Bruce’s bat hasn’t developed. He seems to me like many have said on here in the past about the Reds, IMO he swings for the fences too much and should possibly just hit the left field singles every once in a while.
Bruce’s salary goes to $10MM next year. How do you feel now about Bruce??
@steveschoen:
You “can’t take any HR stats that deal with a player who plays in GAPB”?
I can. I’ll take 30 HR’s and 100 RBI’s every day and twice on Sundays. Which is what Bruce is on track to do this year. And which is what he basically did last year. Who else on this team is going to give you that besides Votto (and do they also play at GABP?)? He’s just 25 years old and has become a reliable RBI guy over the last two seasons. He’s signed for 6 years for only $51 Mil (an average of $8.5 Mil/yr).
The Reds are only paying Bruce $5 Mil this year, $7.5 Mil in 2013, and ONLY $10 MIl in 2014. Where are you going to find that kind of production for that kind of cost?
You’re talking about trading a 30 HR, 100 RBI guy who is only 25 years old. Great idea.
That’s why I said when his contract goes to 8 figures per. Good for the money now, yes. Come that time? That’s why I believe that one or both, Stubbs or Bruce, will be let go somehow in the next 2-3 years.
Jay Bruce, a guy who can have a 30 homerun and 100 RBI season that doesn’t constitute a successful season. One of the top homerun hitters in baseball but whose bat hasn’t developed. I’m not clear on what constitutes a breakout season for him – hitting .300? A real ‘breakout season’ from above what he did last season would make him an MVP candidate.
If you can’t accept stats from a player who plays at GABP it explains why you’re so unreasonable about what he has accomplished.
Update on the Reds hitters performance on BRS% (percentage of base runners who scored on the batter’s play). To calculate this, you take all the runners who are on base when the batter comes to the plate and figure out what percentage of them the batter was successful at knocking in. It includes runners on first base, which RISP does not. It includes sacrifice flies, ground balls and walks as a means to drive in runs, which again RISP does not. The NL league percentage is 14%.
Frazier 18%
Ludwick 18%
Bruce 17%
Phillips 17%
Votto 17%
Rolen 14%
Stubbs 13%
Heisey 11%
Mesoraco 10%
Hanigan 9%
Cozart 7%
Not at all surprised to see Frazier so high – guy is just clutch and I don’t care if people think that’s a silly word. I am a little surprised to see so many of our guys so far above league average, though. Especially Bruce. I also still can not believe how much ground Ludwick has made up in the last couple months after his horrible start. Guy is having a career year if you take out April and May.
Part of that is that this statistic is biased toward power hitters. The ability to drive in runs from first base depends on being able to produce extra-base hits. That’s where someone like Hanigan falls short. If a singles-player hits a single with a runner at first, and moves that runner to third, that’s a “failure” according to this statistic. So you have to take it for what it’s worth. Stats measure what they measure. This one shows the extra value that power hitters have, other things equal.
@Steve Mancuso: I really like how you explained the stat here. One of the reasons I like BRS% is that it is very straightforward and easy to understand. It also doesn’t require any sort of judgement on the scorekeeper’s part.
@WVRedlegs:
Um, great. Jay Bruce’s last two full seasons were worth 15 million and 21 million according to fangraphs. They are showing that he is currently worth about 7 million this year. However, the drop mainly has to do with a huge decline in fielding value, which is not reliable for advanced stats yet. In other words, he has a very team friendly contract.
@Steve Mancuso: I love that Frazier tops the list. Shows that the kid has a knack for situational hitting.
Whatever you do, don’t show the % for Cairo/Valdez, I’m trying to savor the win.
@Steve Mancuso: A very interesting stat. Four things strike me about that list:
1. Frazier should probably bat higher (dead horse, beaten)
2. Votto’s RISP is probably no drop off compared to everyone else
3. Ludwick’s slight edge is probably due to his power compared to Phillips – that is why cleanup hitters should have power!
4. (the point intended) Shocked may be the appropriate term for Bruce’s placement on that list.
@Steve Mancuso: What do you have against the Brennemans??? They are some of the best announcers and broadcasters in baseball today. Marty is just calling it like he sees it in regards to Bruce. Many Reds fans are in his corner regarding Bruce. As many fans are very disappointed in Bruce. Bruce is terribly overrated. What is with it with your Bromance with Bruce?? Or should we call it a Brumance??? You can cherry-pick the stats all you want when it comes to Bruce. Second on the team in K’s, a sub .200 batting average with runners on base, and so on and so forth. He has a phobia about hitting the outfield wall for some reason and that affects his defense. But the bottom line is Bruce should be a solid #4 hitter, but he fails miserably at that. Starting next year his salary goes to $10MM. Will he be worth that kind of money?? I say no, he isn’t.
I’ve been pretty specific about the Brennamans.
Jay Bruce is a power hitter. I’m satisfied evaluating him on HR, RBI, BRS%, + doubles. You keep looking at batting average. Which of us is cherry-picking?
And, he’s not scheduled to make $10 million until 2014. He’s going to make $7.5 million next year. A total steal for a consistent 30/95 player with well above average defensive skills.
Stat line of player:
(HR/RBI/AVG)
2009-30/100/.286
2010-30/125/.270
2011-16/62/.276 (only 99 games)
2012-15/44/.276
Any guesses? Player will make $124 million over those 4 years…Dave Kingman or not, Bruce is worth the money they are pay now and probably a case could be made even at $10 million.
The player above is Alex Rodriquez…talk about an awful contract for the results.
Now, yes. These results for $12 million per? I just don’t think so.
Can anyone look up the stats for Jay Bruce since June 1, 2011 and bring them to this board?? That was after his monsterous May 2011. That would be about 2/3 of last season and about 70% of this year, so those stats would equal out to more than one full season though. I would like to know the number of games played, at-bats, hits, doubles, home runs, RBI’s, K’s, BB’s, batting average, OBP, and batting average with RISP. No defensive stats needed. If someone could dig those up we can get into an honest discussion about Jay Bruce. How does Jay Bruce rank in the number of HR’s hit and RBI’s since June 1, 2011 with all other ML players??? I don’t know the answers to these stat questions. But I don’t think they will be very good at all. I’d be interested to see what they are. Maybe they change my tune on Bruce. Maybe they re-infocre it.
@WVRedlegs:
It’s easier than that.
Annualize his 2012 numbers.
He’s on track for 32 HR’s and 100 RBI’s this year.
Yeah, not very good numbers at all.
@WVRedlegs: Or how about this season after May 15th? That would be an eye-opener. Jay will not be a better player until he decides that where he is at is not good enough. Same with Drew Stubbs, I’m afraid. I’m not a hater but these guys are who they are. Like them or not.
Steve Mancuso, unfortunately, I have to agree with you about Marty and it is sad. I have been a Reds fan for around 40 years now and I grew up listening to Marty and Joe (well it was Al Michaels and Joe when I first started listening). As a kid and young man I loved listening to the games, Marty and Joe were great, I almost never missed a broadcast, even if the Reds were on TV, I had the radio on. But somewhere along the line Marty turned into a bitter old man with constant rants about this player or that player. I honestly think that Marty is the reason there is so much negativity from the fans (bloggers), many fans think he is god. For several years I had trouble getting the Reds broadcasts, they were not available locally. When I was able to get them again I was shocked at how bitter Marty had become. When Joe cut back and then retired and finally passed away, I stopped listening to the broadcasts, they were no longer enjoyable like when I was a kid. If I couldn’t get them on TV, I kept up with the game on the Internet (Gamecast). Fortunately, I can get FoxSports Cincinnati now and get almost all of the games, but I miss the old days listening to the old Marty and Joe. It was nice to see Marty and the head shaving thing, he was kind of like the old Marty, but I sure do miss Joe.
@JCTENRED:
I’ll third that emotion on Marty. He and Brantley are downright awful. I too have often thought that Marty was an inspiration for alot of the negativity coming from Reds fans. I too liked the head shaving promotion, it was a class act; it’s a shame the barber didn’t shave his tongue too. The Reds deserve a better announcing crew.
@WVRedlegs: I’ll indulge your date cherry-picking (intentionally leaving out Bruce’s ‘monstrous’ month) just to prove a point. Although I wonder how it’s an “honest discussion” when you intentionally exclude his best month, as if that doesn’t count. And by the way, this took 10 seconds to look up at Fangraphs. From now on, do your own stat searches.
Over the last “calendar year” which I think is the “honest discussion” you were looking for:
Bruce 152 games, 632 plate appearances, 29 HR, 91 RBI, 8 SB, 10.6 BB%, .234/.321/.454.
I think most every team in MLB would take a 24-year old player producing that. Without his best month. Which should count.
@Steve Mancuso: My bad on the salary. You are correct about 2013 on Bruce. But you call him a “consistent 30/95 player with well above average defensive skills.” Please, I almost peed my pants laughing so hard. I needed the laugh though. Thank you. Bruce has done the 30/95 thing ONLY ONCE in his FIVE ML seasons. Never has knocked in 100 RBI’s.
That is consistent to you?? ’08=21/52 .254. ’09=22/58 .223. ’10=25/70 .281. ’11= 32/97 .256. ’12= 23/72 .245. I had to add in the batting averages just for fun. I’ve got a hundred bucks that says that Jay Bruce will not reach 95 RBI’s this year. How does one year make that consistent???
By simply factoring in PA missed by time on the DL. Did you expect him to accumulate HR/RBI in 2008 before he was called up?
His AB/HR and AB/RBI in every one of those years would have achieved 30/95 or very near it. His numbers for 2012 are better than last year.
I don’t gamble, but it wouldn’t surprise me if other folks here took you up on your bet. He’s on pace for 96. And if he “only” gets to 90, does that really prove your point?
To be fair, if Bruce doesn’t reach 100 RBI’s this year (I’m nto sure he will either) it will be just as much about our inability to get runners on ahead of him. I do think he’ll reach 30 HR’s and I think he’ll do that consistently for the next 10 years.
I will take that bet. He is on pace for 105 RBI right now with 13 games against the cubs and Astros left. That is a foolish bet to be making.
Seriously, the Jay Bruce hating is fantastic. A 25 year old with over 2500 PAs having a .808 career OPS for 5 million a year this year and 7.5 next and is pretty darn good in the outfield is a serious asset and one that allows a team on a budget a leg up on the competition. He may not be Joey Votto, which is apparently what everyone wants, but he also isn’t as old.
How many people missed the specification “8 figures per”? Geez!
@JCTENRED: I’m with you 100%. I miss Al Michaels, Joe Nuxhall and the earlier version of Marty, who is still an excellent play-by-play commentator.
Do Reds fans ever stop criticizing someone? Yes, they left a ton on base last night. Yes, Marty and some of the other announcers can be ruthless towards some of the Reds players. Yes, Bruce can be frustrating at times. Yes, Wilson Valdez and Miquel Cairo should be DFA’d immediately. Yes, Dusty is an idiot, but what nobody talks about is that this team WINS. We’re watching a spectacular season, yet everyone is constantly criticizing some member of the Reds organization. Starting to get pretty darn ridiculous.
Jay Bruce is 25 years old. He’s younger than Zack Cozart or Todd Frazier. Can we stop pretending he’s a fully-formed player? He’s still a kid.
Bruce has some definite flaws, but I am surprised at the vitriol directed towards the guy. He’s still young.
Ugh…the only thing worse than commenters whining about players is commenters whining about commenters whining about players…
Of course commenters whining about commenters whining about commenters whining about players is just good reading. So you’re welcome.
Hilarious.
And I think it was also commenters whining about commenters whining about commenters whining about broadcasters whining about players (who hit 30/95).
Im sorry, but I know we need to worry about getting to the playoffs first. But I really do not want to see the Dodgers first round. There lineup REALLY scares me. And once Kemp gets going, there lineup may be the second best in baseball (of course, behind us).
I would really like to beat out the Nationals for the top spot in the NL. But hey, we can first focus on beating the Cards as the NL Central winner.
I’m not convinced Babe Ruth and Barry Bonds could drive in 100 runs on this team hitting in the 3 and 4 holes with Cozart and Stubbs hitting in front of them every night…
@Steve Mancuso: WVRedlegs just really doesn’t like Bruce. I’ve gone back and forth with him many times and he doesn’t seem swayed by my analysis. Sometimes a person just doesn’t like a player. He once suggested that he’d much prefer Hunter Pence. I’m not sure if he’s seen Pence play since the AS break though. I like Pence but the guy has been struggling much moreso than Bruce.
err, my comment was suppost to be towards WVRedlegs.
GUYS Bruce is 25 years old. Tthe best hitting years for MLB player on average is 27 to 32. there is no way you trade him. I think he will hit 35 homers with 110 RBIs and a .280 or better during those years. Right now we should be happy with 30, 95, and .250.
I am frustrated at times with Bruce, but I just keep thinking, wai until this guy is 27!