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Tom Groeschen (Enquirer) just posted an update on when you might expect JoeyMVP back in the lineup:
Behind the scenes, the Reds believe Joey Votto could return during their series at Philadelphia next Monday-Thursday but that a more realistic goal is the St. Louis series (Aug. 24-26) in Cincinnati.
Or 11 days, 2 hours and 15 minutes from now. Sigh.
I’M NOT A DOCTOR, but I honestly thought 3-4 weeks was too good to be true. So, while I’m disappointed he’s not back yet I kinda prepared myself for a longer timetable.
Jason Stark beat me to this thought…I luv me some Cueto, but I was curious why we the Redleg Nation faithful hadn’t at least floated the idea that Aroldis Chapman should at the very least be in the Cy Young conversation. Well Jason Stark went a step further than suggesting he should be in the conversation: http://espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/stark_jayson/id/8265725/the-case-aroldis-chapman-winning-national-league-cy-young-award
He says the Cy Young should be Chappies and no one else comes close!
Read up on Craig Kimbrel before saying nobody else comes close. Kimbrel has comparable or better numbers in most categories, just fewer strikeouts. Both have been very successful, neither has really distinguished himself from the other guy, which makes it unlikely that Chapman (or any other reliever) will win the Cy Young Award.
I’ve said September 1st since the day he went down and I’m sticking to it…Any day before that is just a bonus in my mind.
@L.A.Red: It’s come up from time to time, but everyone basically just points to the fact that relievers don’t win it even if they deserve to. The more amazing story is that we have an ace starter AND a closer who could easily be the two leading contenders. Has that EVER happened on ANY team before?
I thought that 3 weeks sounded like a pretty reasonable return. I forget where I read this, but some Olympic sprinter had the same procedure done and was able to run his/her qualifier ~3 weeks later.
Obviously, having the 2nd procedure done was unforeseen, but I still look back to the west-coast trip before the All-Star break. Joey looked noticeably hobbled to me, his power was shot because he wasn’t shifting his weight during his swing as he usually does. He wasn’t running out grounders.
Instead of waiting until July 17th for his first procedure, it probably should have been done during the Dodgers series, which began July 2nd. Worst case scenario, it should have been done during the All-Star break, so let’s say July 9th.
I don’t mean to beat this horse to death (because we all did enough of that ~3 weeks ago when his lack of an MRI was revealed), but if this situation was handled properly, we would have our best hitter back in the lineup tomorrow, if not sooner than that.
Bucs are going into a tough stretch, next week and some. Depending on the situation, no need to start Votto unless we are in full blown, lose the wildcard(s) mode, or not. Give the man as much time as he needs and (like Dusty would think) moresome. The idea that, as good as Joey is, he would come back from over a month on the DL and then make-or-break a series win over the Cards is laughable. I can swallow my pride and lose to the WLBs (even be swept) if it means a healthier Votto in the postseason.
wildwestLV: I agree with you that Joey should be given as much time as he needs. But it’s not laughable that he could be out for a month and then make-or-break a series win over the Cards. When he was out for a month in 2009, in his first series (3rd game) back he went 4 for 5 with a double and home run, leading the Reds to a win over Toronto and preventing a sweep. BUT that was after 3 rehab games in the minors, which of course makes a difference.
I’m surprised there’s been no discussion (anywhere) about whether he does a minor league rehab or not. It’s important. He should, not so much to regain his timing there, but to reduce the risk of aggravating the injury. Junior never rehabbed, and sometimes hit a dramatic HR his first game back. But more often he incurred a season ending injury for coming back too soon and skipping the minor league rehab.
@wildwestLV: In theory I’m with you, but I would only modify it that we shouldn’t even have the word “wildcard” in our vocabulary. If we look like we’re losing our hold on first place, that’s when we do something. We don’t wait until we slip into 2nd. I really don’t like the new playoff structure with the wildcard “play-in” game. Yeah, it gives 2 extra teams a shot at the playoffs, but it totally devalues the original wildcard spot because you basically have to flip a coin to get past that silly reality-show of a contest. How awful would it be to have this great season, dip just below Pitt or St Louis at the last moment, and then have the whole year hinge on ONE game? Not to mention burning Cueto for the REAL playoff series to follow? Ugh…don’t even want to think about it. Go out and win the division.
Eric: I like the new playoff structure for the reason you later give. It rewards winning the division, which is how it should be. The team that wins the most games over the 162 game grind deserves an advantage. Now the division race is always meaningful again. Last season for example the Brewers won the NL Central and it gave them virtually no advantage over the wild card Cardinals in the playoffs.
In the past when it has come down to the last day of the regular season to decide which of two teams wins a division vs. which gets in by wild card, the two teams have always rested their regulars, treating the difference as irrelevant. Who wins the division should matter.
The Reds are playing the Mets and Cubs this week, even with out JV does anyone really think they wont go 5-2 this week? The strech with the Phiiles, Cardnials, and D-Backs worrys me. Thats the last tough strech of the year.They are only 4-13 the last 2 yrs against the Phillies, the Cardnials are tough and the D-Backs ar playing better. That 10 game strech is the key to the season, if they go 5-5 or better they will win this division
@Larry1980:
None of these teams that you’re scared of are as good as the Reds.
I’m with the others. That 10 game stretch worries me big time. Philadelphia has always been a house of horrors. They’ve got everyone back and healthy as well and we’ve seen how scary they can be when at full strength. Cards are playing better and are going to be looking for blood after that sweep to begin the 2nd half. D-Backs have the talent to win the West.
I know our pitching’s been great, but those 3 teams can put up runs in a hurry and we’re going to need some offense in that stretch. I’m not saying rush Joey back either, it’s just imperative we don’t implode in that stretch. If that Philly series goes south as I fear it might, I’d strongly consider getting Joey back in there by the Cards series.
I picked up tickets last week for the Aug. 24 game. It would be awesome to see him play in that one.
@corfy: Me too. Be in town for a family function so I made sure to get tickets. Not holding my breath on seeing Joey though.
Do you think Votto has the star power to get a little of Dr. James Andrews’ attention? The Reds medical staff has not given me warm and fuzzy feelings lately.
Lately?
@RedLegHerrm: There isn’t any excuse to rush Joey back. Period. If we’re in trouble during/after that stretch then we need to make a waiver trade to bolster the roster. We’re pretty much a lck to at least get a wildcard spot as of now. We need Joey to be 100% on October 1st WAY more than we need him there on September 1st.
@RedLegHerrm: I lived in Philly for the 2007-2011 seasons, and I went to most of the Reds games when they were in town. “House of horrors” is an apt description.
Ha. Harang gets a hit off the stupid Pirates. Way to go, big guy!
@BenL: And then scores on a Shane Victorino homer. Go Dodgers!
@eric nyc: I will always hate Victorino (see my post about Philadelphia), but that was nice.
And, like you were saying, no matter how tough the schedul is, there is no way they should rush Votto back. These knee things can nag, and we need him healthy for the playoffs.
Where am I? Reds fans rooting for Da Bums?
It doesn’t matter what the other teams do if we take care of business.
@seat101: Don’t think of it as rooting for the Dodgers so much as rooting against the Pirates. I believe the Reds will “take care of business,” but I certainly don’t mind some help.
First Pierre beating the Cardinals, now Victorino beating the Pirates. Glad the Reds didn’t trade for them.
@royhobbs: The Reds are 4-13 against the Phillies the last 2 yrs including the 2010 LDS, your telling me those 4 games dont worry u? the Cardnials dont worry u? I know the Reds swept them July 13-15, but they are tough. They hit. The Diamonbacks spilt with the Reds in Cincy, Its a west coast game and those are tough. The Brewers swept the Reds dont assume anything.
@BenL:
I still hate the Dodgers. And the O’malley’s return to baseball is less welcome to me than if Frank McCourt bought the Reds.
But I’ll try to keep an open mind.
@seat101: I must admit that I didn’t become a Reds fan until we moved to Cinci in the early 90s, and only got really serious about them in the last decade, so I don’t have the same deep-seated hatred that others might. For me they are just another west coast team that plays after I’m in bed most nights. I can certainly understand your objection, though.
@CKeever: The Reds Dr. Kremchek is highly regarded as a surgeon. Athletes from all sports get cut on by him. He is now in his 15th season for the Reds.
musicjoker: Absolutely, including players from other baseball teams.
I guess name recognition means more to some people than others. It’s harder to blame the Reds for a setback if the surgery is performed by somebody who isn’t affiliated with the Reds. Most athletes are happy with Dr Kremchek.
What do you think of someone else’s suggestion to see if Ludwick can play 1B, Frazier 3B and a platoon of Heisey/Paul in LF? Until Votto comes back.
Votto may have trouble the rest of the year with his knee and needs more days off. Also Rolen is fragile.
The Reds value defense and won’t suddenly convert Ryan Ludwick into an infielder late in the season. In September Neftali Soto and Henry Rodriguez are likely candidates to be promoted to provide infield corner depth.
OK I thought Chapman was good but this is truly obscene.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/stark_jayson/id/8265725/the-case-aroldis-chapman-winning-national-league-cy-young-award
Great article. Very fun to read. I keep thinking he’s due for another rough stretch, but if he doesn’t then his numbers at year-end are going to be nuts.
@musicjoker319: Has Ludwick played 1B before?, If so I am with u but Dusty wont do it.
@BenL:
My father hated the O’Malleys. He said baseball’s move to the West Coast was the beginning of the end of the afternoon paper.
@Larry1980: No, Ludwick has never played 1B before. But for 2 weeks I’ll at least look at it in practice.
@seat101: Walter O’Malley broke the heart of Brooklyn. But I preferred him and his son over George Steinbrenner. When free agency began after the ’76 season, Dodger ownership, which had big bucks, set the tone for the NL by exercising restraint, while the AL owners went crazy trying to keep up with Steinbrenner. Of course, the NL’s “restraint” didn’t last that long. And it couldn’t, or the NL would have become a AAAA league long ago.
It seems modern fans hate the Cubs and Cards, but to me, I still have way more loathing of the old NL West foes like the Dodgers and Astros.
I hate especially the Dodgers for 1981 where somehow through trickery they win it all while the Reds have the best record in baseball and DON’T EVEN GET INVITED TO THE PLAYOFFS. That and 1994 left a real bad taste in my mouth about baseball that took me a few years to get over, as that 94 Reds club was something special too.
I know deep down, there is part of me is still a kid that still doesn’t like Dusty Baker as he was on that period LA team and thought there was something just ‘wrong’ about bringing in a Dodger off that club to manage the Reds.
why does the guy who runs this blog call the Cubs the Stupid Cubs?
@Larry1980: It’s a tradition here to call the Cubs the Stupid Cubs.
@earl: The guy I really disliked from that era is Tommy LaSorda. He was obsessed with hatred of the Reds, wouldn’t let any of his player’s wives wear red. And I understand that anecdotally he’s a real A-hole, acts like a Hollywood celebrity.
The extent that the Reds got screwed in 1981 isn’t even completely known by most Reds fans. Of course they went 35-21 before the strike, while the Dodgers went 36-21. That was no basis for declaring the Dodgers the “first half champions” when play resumed and having the Reds get nothing for their large lead over the Astros.
But the forgotten thing is that about two weeks before the strike, the Reds had a 7-0 lead over the Giants in the 3rd or 4th inning. In those days, you just didn’t blow a 7 run lead. Rain came and the game was wiped out and not made up. If the rain had waited another half hour or so, the Reds would have been 36-21 – an identical record to the Dodgers – when the strike began.
@earl: Ditto!
@pinson343: Yeah, I agree with your assessment of the new playoff system. It both makes the division worth winning again AND it gives more teams hope of making the playoffs at the end of the year. In my mind, these are both wins.
@Larry1980: I don’t know if you have any older siblings, but do you remember when they used to pick on you? I do. And I called them stupid. There’s not actually any bad blood with the Cubs here, but they picked up the name when they were dominating the NLC. Most of us like Theo Epstein and think him anything but stupid.
I just posted this on another thread, but I’m posting it here too in case the other thread is dead, Zed:
Far be it that I come to Dusty’s defense on the stupid lineup, but I’m tired of the conversation. I plugged the following lineup in to the Lineup Analysis Tools:
Cozart
Stubbs
Votto
Phillips
Ludwick
Bruce
Frazier
Hanigan
Cueto
… and got the folowing results: 4.614 Runs Per Game
Then I put the following lineup I keep seeing other post:
Phillips
Cozart
Votto
Ludwick
Frazier
Bruce
Stubbs
Hanigize
Cueto
… and it actually lowered the average runs per game to 4.444. (interchanging Stubbs/Cozart gets the same result)
The point is, you can plug in any 9 players and let the tool analyze the best order. The best order was less than a 1 run difference per game than the best, the lineup that Dusty uses is in the top half.
While I agree there is a lot to the argument that guys on in front of Votto to have more opportunities to score, the difference is not has drastic as you might think. Managers DON’T look at lineups the same why we do. For the most part, they try to plug guys in where they will be most effective. If Dusty looks at the splits and finds Cozart’s OPS is .100 better in one spot than the other, he’ll put him where he hits the best. Furthermore, I’m sure most days Dusty comes in and thinks more about who he wants to play and who to sit rather than what order they punch their ticket. And IMO that is right and proper.
Something I expect Dusty looks at that most fans don’t, regarding Brandon Phillips, is that he changes his approach when he hits at different places in the order. He’ll change his approach again if he starts hitting leadoff. The OBP for the leadoff hitter might go up by Phillips’ own performance would probably go way down. I agree with Dusty when he says that, as manager, the lineup his his decision to make.
@TC: I like the word “Hanigize” (in your second lineup). Next time I see a guy get rung up on a particularly well framed pitch I’m going to say “You just got Hanigized, sucker.”
Also, very interesting info on the lineup. I’m surprised.
@TC: Did you use 2012 stats-to-date, career numbers, projected rest-of-season stats, or something else? Just curious what the statistical inputs were.
@Greg Dafler: Great question. I used year to date. If you’d like I can plug in career.
@BenL: A fortunate mistake.
@TC: I may have entered something incorrectly or be using a different set of stats, but I think you get slightly more R/G if you push Phillips up in the order and drop Stubbs (or Cozart.)
Just using current number seasons as a proxy, I get about 10 more runs per year by having Phillips in front of Votto vs. Cozart or Stubbs.
You get the biggest bang for your buck batting Hanigan in front of Votto. Phillips 1 and Hanigan 2 is about 20 runs per season more than Stubbs/Cozart…again at current season stats. But, Hanigan doesn’t catch every day, so the Reds wouldn’t benefit from that full amount.
A more reasonable change that Baker could and would make that has essentially the same 20 run per season effect:
Phillips
Frazier
Votto
Ludwick
Bruce
Cozart
Stubbs
Catcher
Pitcher
But in real life Hanigan’s OBP would go down if he’s no longer being pitched around to get to the 9th hole hitter. And Votto’s doubles would result in lots of plays with Hanigan being held up at 3b because he was too slow to score. And he doesn’t play everyday. Lots of things that Dusty has to factor in that differ from how a fantasy baseball lineup would be built.
You know, the ‘more reasonable’ lineup has the 4 guys who hit with runners on base all hitting in the top 4 spots in the order.
I’m still kind of surprised the Reds didn’t make any sort of play for Overbay. I’m actually surprised no one in baseball did. Is there more to the story there with Overbay?
Part of it probably has to do with him never playing anywhere except 1b, and most teams don’t need a full time 1b on the bench. The Reds have Todd Frazier to play 1b with Votto out. They value team chemistry and think highly of Miguel Cairo’s clubhouse influence – if they wanted to make a move for another corner infielder they already have Neftali Soto and Henry Rodriguez in the organization.
@Greg Dafler: So that is the equivalent of one more run every eight games?
@seat101: Even if they scored fewer runs, I like the lineup. It quiets the natives.
Again, though, players have a tendency to have different numbers according to where they hit the in the lineup. If Phillips’ OBP is reduced by .2 points hitting in the leadoff (which I’m not say it does), then runs scored would be affected as well.
Soto is having a bad year at AAA. He would not be a good option for the major league team this year.
Problem is that both Votto and Rolen have been down. Frazier can’t play both corner positions. Overbay would have been another LH bat, and one who could start at 1B with Frazier at 3B.
I look at it as – what greater need do the Reds have this month? A 5th outfielder (Paul) or a first baseman (Overbay)?
It’s been 7 days since Rolen has played and I see he is not in the lineup AGAIN tonight. Valdez is playing 3rd base. There’s Overbay’s roster spot w/o cutting or DFA anyone.
A couple things…
One, I am not at all sold on lineup tools. I like stats but the lineup tool completely dismisses the number one variable in the world; the fact that humans play this game. When you start shuffling batting order and such it tends to upset players’ routines. As humans are creatures of habit and as many professional athletes have a certain routine, upsetting these routines may have a negative effect on performance. Add in the stuff that redsfanman said about players changing their approach depending on where they are hitting and what he said about how a guy gets pitched to in the 8-hole as opposed to the 2-hole and it really makes this human variable too much for a lineup tool to handle. Lineup tools are great for giving a guy an idea on lineup construction and they provide some usefulness in their ability to analyze options but they shouldn’t ever be used to create a lineup. I love my Diamond Mind Baseball but how I manage on that simulator is different than how I’d manage real-life players. For Diamond Mind, a game based solely on statistics, with a slight bit of random luck thrown in, I’d use a lineup tool. For real players, the lineup tool may give me some ideas but I’d only use it to analyze some possibilities.
Thing two… As Greg said, it looks like Rolen is out again. I really don’t understand why the Reds don’t use the DL more. It’s been beaten to death on this blog so I don’t want to harp on it too much but playing with a short bench hamstrings a manager. The tipping point for when to place a player on the DL should vary based on the situation but the Reds seem reluctant to do it for almost any player under any situation, unless it’s clear that player will be out for over 15 days, or that player is a catcher. I’d love to sit down with Walt and hear his reasoning for this. I have a lot of respect for Walt Jocketty and wish someone would ask him about how the Reds use the DL.
@redsfanman: I don’t think BP’s numbers would go down hitting leadoff. He seems to enjoy it and he did a good job doing it during the 2nd-half of the season last year. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the leadoff spot when Votto comes back. Dusty felt BP was his best option in the 4-hole and really wanted a RH bat to break up his 3 and 5 guys. With the way Ludwick is hitting right now and with the struggles at the top of the lineup, I think Dusty may take a look at using BP to leadoff.
@LWBlogger: Yes, BP at his best is still not the prototypical cleanup type while Ludwick at his best is an ideal fit (or Super Todd but 6th seems to be his ceiling the the lineup this year).
LW, what do you think of the suggestions of a
BP
Frazier
Votto
Ludwick
Bruce – top half of the order?
@rightsaidred: Kinda answered you in the Reds/Mets preeview thread… I like Frazier and his power down in the 5 or 6 hole better than in the 2-hole. I like BP leading off, a lot.
A firstbaseman might be a greater need than a 5th outfielder but I think it’d be tough for the Reds to justify cutting Xavier Paul.
Overbay is still a free agent and there’s some reason why nobody seems to want him.
Neftali Soto, I agree he wouldn’t be a great option but he still IS an option. His numbers are up since the All Star break, he’s hitting .378 over the last 10 games, and he has experience at both 1b and 3b. He’s under team control and has options. If he performs well he might build up some trade value and get moved in a deal like Juan Francisco.
For all we know Rolen will be back in the lineup on Wednesday, almost a week before he’d be eligible if he’d been placed on the DL – he’s probably available to pinch hit on Tuesday. Twice this season Brandon Phillips was out for 5 games with an injury – I don’t think the Reds were ‘hamstringed’ doing those games, and they certainly wouldn’t have been better off benching him for 10 more.
The team wants to put its best lineup on the field as much as it can. Sometimes that means wasting a spot on Brandon Phillips for 5 games so he can play 10 more. Currently that means keeping Rolen on the bench rather than Neftali Soto or Henry Rodriguez. In Valdez, Cairo, and Frazier the team already carriers three other thirdbasemen.
You don’t think Brandon Phillips’ numbers would go down hitting leadoff… but I do. And I’ll bet Dusty thinks so also, I believe he’s mentioned Phillips’ tendancy to change his approach when he shifts to different spots in the order. Brandon Phillips was moved to the leadoff spot late last season by a losing team that was willing to mix things up in hopes of finishing over .500. This team is already in first place with the same unpopular lineup that has been used all season. Such a lineup shakeup seems really really unlikely.