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Let’s recap today’s titanic struggle….
FINAL
Pittsburgh 6
Cincinnati 2
W: A.J. Burnett (14-3)
L: H. Bailey (9-7)
S: J. Hanrahan (32)
BOX SCORE
POSITIVES
–The Reds lost today, but they won 2 out of 3 in the series and sit 4.5 games ahead of the Pirates. They did it without Joey Votto or Brandon Phillips.
–Alfredo Simon was excellent. After the rough reception we all gave him, you really have to take your hat off the results he’s gotten this season.
–Jay Bruce and Drew Stubbs each reached base twice.
NEGATIVES
–Homer wasn’t exactly on fire today.
–Logan Ondrusek is not very good. He has been very lucky. That seems to be changing.
–Only 3 hits today.
NOT-SO-RANDOM THOUGHTS
–Meh. This was not a thrilling game. The Reds didn’t play well. The Pirates did. But if the Pirates need A.J. Burnett to beat the Reds when the Reds are missing their two best players, well, I guess I can live with that.
–Now that the Pirates have been dispensed with, the Reds get to play the next 22 games against teams with losing records. 8 of their next 14 are against the Stupid Cubs. They don’t play a winning team again until the Cardinals on August 24-26.
–The Reds have help up well in his absence, but I am ready for the return of Joey Votto. I don’t know about you.
Yes, they were without Votto in the lineup. But this game showed that the Reds have the same problem they’ve had for the past few years: helplessness against an ace. That is really going to hurt them once they get into the playoffs, just like it did in 2010.
Agree w/ everything in this recap. Actually, it was a Reds’ loss that I was ok with. Better to get knocked down a (tiny) notch before the upcoming schedule. We need a reality check before taking on the likes of the Brew Crew and stupid Cubs. And if the Buccos feel good about beating a Votto-less and BP-less Reds, and taking 1 out of 3, good luck to them against the D-Backs & Dodgers (heck, even the Friars, the way they were hacking against us). We came out of this weekend in really good shape, and this will still be a real battle to the end (see St. Louis/Brewers game tonight). GO REDS!
Did’t feel the energy today of Saturday and Friday nights. Hard to tell from a TV screen 500-miles away but anyone who went to all three games, could you describe the atmosphere? Team seemed a little burned out today.
Really disappointed in Homer’s outing after following a worse stinker in his last start. Cubs up next and I’m looking forward to a rebound from him.
We might have to start to look at Drew Stubbs in a different light. Young man is playing some very good baseball and he has held it together for a while. The three most inconsistent guys on the club ,IMO, are: Stubbs. Bruce & Homer. If just two of three could make a break with the past and evolve as the could, this team would be something as we have seen. But at the same time, I think if all 3 continue down the same road, as their history shows, I think a WS is out of the question.
@RedZeppelin: We might lose one against a real “ace”, but the 2010 Phils rotation is gone. Save for the Nats (who should scare the h*ll out of anyone in the NL pennant race), I don’t know of any team (NL/AL) who can send out ace/after ace. Cards, maybe, IF their rotation can put it together, and I’m sure they’re entirely capable.
It was “ace” against our non-ace without Phillips or Votto. This one game means nothing about the playoffs.
So, the Pirates traded their 1st round lottery pick for Gaby Sanchez & they only start him once in the series?
Jeez guys.
The Reds are on pace to win 99 or 100 games.
They just won two of three against their primary competition.
And some of you are still griping? Still? Really?
What is it going to take to make you happy? The 1975 Reds? They probably didn’t have enough pitching, though, huh?
Come on.
@Jason Linden: I’d be happier with 1976 Reds.
Well said. Thank you.
It sounds like to me you are mistaken complaints with reality and facts, or just trying to find something to complain about. If you are held to just one game and what we have already done, fine. But, what most are concerned with, the reason most all the players play the game, getting to the playoffs “and” winning the WS. And, things always get tougher come playoff time. It is very different in the playoffs. But, you are suppose to prep your team for that right now.
Ok. When the Reds run all over the league the rest of August when BP and Votto are back. They should stretch chapman out in September for 3 or 4 starts and see how it goes. Broxton can close, marshall back to set up and fill in the rest. Seriously who is our 3rd starter going to be in playoffs? I know it’s not going to happen and people on the ESPN boards were trashing me wanting to leave chapman in at closer but can we really have HB or BA going in game 3 in playoffs? I mean seriously? I know i’m definitely living in fairy tale land, but at least some of u guys would agree with me right?
Mid-season? Right at the playoffs? Sorry, I’m not there. It needed to be done by mid-season if at all during the season.
I was thrilled in winning the 1st 2 games of the series; knowing we had to win both of those to take 2 out of 3(already counting today as a loss after looking at who we had starting on the bump).
I don’t have any right to complain about a 5 of 7 homestand. That’s beautiful. The reds are deserving of number one on power rankings board and any other aggregator of overall talent and skill. Go Reds!
A special thanks to Arrendondo for coming in the middle of the inning and bailing Homer out of trouble(a recurring theme in his starts this year).
Thought this was a positive as well. Runners on in a tight game and Jose has had issues with command, and he threw strikes and kept us in the ballgame. It was only one batter, but it certainly deserves mentioning.
On the negative, it sure seems like we have been committing a lot of errors recently. Understand two gold glovers haven’t been playing, but still….
@RedZeppelin: I don’t think it can be judged from today that the Reds are helpless against an ace, witt Votto or BP and Rolen all missing from the lineup.
Joe Morgan had an interesting thing to say when he joined the Reds tv crew on Friday nite – that the Reds have 3-4 hitters who can hit good pitching. Votto of course would be one. The others probably BP, Rolen and Bruce, but his saying 3-4 meant (I think) he was iffy about one of them. He did criticize BP for not being patient enough, but there are also reasons to be iffy about Rolen (health) and Bruce (fill in the reason).
As for the Reds having the same problem with hitting aces as in 2010, off the top of my head I think they’re doing better this year. They beat Sabbathia, for example. They beat up on Gallardo, does that count ? Some research would be needed to say.
The last time I looked (it hasn’t been for a couple of weeks), the Reds were 1 game up on playoff teams. The Nats were like 5-6 games up on playoff teams. I beleive all others were under 500 against playoff teams. If all of that means anything. The thing is, in the playoffs, it all gets more intense. For instance, the Nats could have been fortunate to get the #3-5 pitchers of those teams, avoiding the #1-2 pitchers for those teams. No avoiding them come playoffs. Similar for us and the other teams.
The rotation has thrown alot of innings! Could some of them being battling a tired arm? Is it time to find a spot start or two for them? Recharge the batteries so to speak. A healthy team will enable us to bring in someone to spot start? Suggestions?
I didn’t have a good feeling about today’s game and didn’t even watch until the 9th inning. I tuned in just after McCutcheon’s HR. Ondrusek’s giving up 2 seeing eye ground ball singles, and then Frazier’s making the error on a DP ball, reminded me of the kind of luck Marshall had in some of his outings.
I don’t have a lesser opinion of Ondrusek because of a couple of weak ground balls. I have 3 problems with him, if we’re talking about a high leverage set up guy.
1. Too many walks.
2. Too many HRs.
3. Not enough Ks.
I’m glad the Reds picked up Broxton. I’m happy with Ondrusek’s current role. He’s good at getting out 1 or 2 outs with righties up and inherited runners on base.
@SFredsfan: I think you’re right. Brantley, who knows about pitching, has been talking about this. Latos is a horse, otherwise I think they’re all getting a little tired. The Reds picked up Todd Redmond for starting pitcher depth and he’s on the 40 man roster. Maybe he could make a few starts.
@SFredsfan: It’s a good point. Leake, Bailey, both, have/are approaching exceeding # of pitches/ innings pitched vs. years past. Maybe Cueto too (with his injury last season). I think that this (up to now) stellar bullpen will play a pivotal role in these last two months. Another idea why today wasn’t such a bad thing. We have to get Arredondo, Simon, Ondrusek (Massett, when he returns), etc. going. They’re going to be very important going forward.
AND LeCure. Totally blanked out on that. Loves me some Sam LeCure.
@RedZeppelin: Your pessimism is…well, it’s just silly. The Reds are on a historic run(for the franchise) right now and your already throwing in the towel for the playoffs? Come on man! Ridiculous.
Looking at the Reds lineup today, I felt like they had little chance, which is an odd way to feel after winning 15 out of 16. But without a solid lineup, the bubble bursts at some point.
Looks like Joey might be back in time for the Cubs series. And I hope BP is back in the lineup against the Brewers, Gallardo is pitching the first game and Fiers (who’s been red hot) the second.
@Jason Linden: I didn’t say I wasn’t happy. I’m enjoying the heck out of this season. I’m just saying that today’s offensive futility doesn’t bode well for the postseason. Sure they won’t face ace after ace in the playoffs, but if they run into a team with more than a couple top-tier pitchers they’re going to be in trouble.
Didn’t say I was complaining about the team, however. I’m loving them right now, so much so that I consider making the postseason a given. But you’re not going far in the postseason if you give opponents many 4-pitch innings.
@RedZeppelin: PS to my previous reply. Just remembered that the Reds have beat up on Cain twice. So they’ve beaten Sabbathia and Cain twice. I don’t see the problem.
@Jason Linden: Jeez indeed….And I guarantee if there had been blogs and online forums in 75 some people would have been complaining then too…..
@Furniture City Red: There were radio call-in shows, and while I was too young to remember, my dad tells me there were plenty of people calling and complaining.
@pinson343: Best thing that could happen for the Reds would be for the Brewers to win big (or, just win) against the Cards tonight. It would (obviously) help us out, race wise, but I always like facing a losing team coming off an emotional win against a winning team.
@pinson343: Sabbathia isn’t quite the pitcher he once was, but I hope you’re right. For the record I’m not one who relishes in Reds loses or hopes for the worst. I’m a lifelong fan, but also a realist.
@wildwestLV: Agree about the growing importance of the bullpen in the stretch run. The Reds are in good shape there, outstanding depth even without Masset. Hoover BTW has been lights out at AAA.
You can’t win em all, but I can’t complain too much however since they were probably playing with about 20 or 21 man roster today (considering Phillips still isn’t available, Rolen was getting a well deserved rest, and Broxton and Chapman probably needed a day off as well). Usually I’d pull my hair out if Dusty through a lineup like this out there, but I have to admit that sometimes he just doesn’t have a choice. This defending of Dusty is a first for me, but the way this roster is structured and managed by the front office has been a problem for a number of years and needs to be addressed. Too many times over the last three or four years they have played shorthanded for a week or ten days at a time because they wouldn’t disable a guy that was clearly hurt.
BTW: I find it amusing that more than half the folks here (including myself) had written off Rolen completely before the All-star break, but now use his absence from the lineup as an excuse for the Reds’ poor performance today. Just saying.
I haven’t seen that.
@RedZeppelin: OK, no problem. I do think this Reds team in better than the 2010 team. They’re on pace to win 99 games.
Better pitching obviously. And even though the offensive stats aren’t as good as in 2010 overall, the offense has come on strong and I think will be more dangerous in the post season.
Again, here’s hoping you’re right. Cheers.
@RedZeppelin: He’s been healthy since the All-Star break. His replacement in the lineup today was Miguel Cairo. Of course he was missed. As was BP.
@RedZeppelin: Right on. GO REDS !!!
@wildwestLV: Yes, let’s go Brewers. Win tonite and celebrate and don’t worry about tomorrow.
With all the good moves Walt Jocketty has made this year (and there have been several) the fact that Cairo and Valdez still play the roles they do for the Reds in August is a failure.
I think it’s clear this team is better than 2010′s team. That team didn’t have a winning record vs any 1st or 2nd place team that year. This team has deeper starting pitching, a much stronger bullpen, and more postseason experience.
@Steve Mancuso: I would agree. If you compare this roster to say the 1990 Reds, Valdez and Cairo are more Luis Quinones and Billy Bates (24th and 25th guys on the roster) than Glenn Braggs or Ron Oester who were guys that you felt comfortable being your first guys off the bench. The Latos trade seems to have worked out and the Broxton trade looks good so far, but the bench – ugh!
Ugh. What a miserable game to sit through. Right up to the end where we had to actually watch the very last out just in case.
We made this way too easy on Burnett. I think the biggest turning point was in the first inning when Ludwick got caught trying to steal. That doesn’t happen, there’s a decent chance we score one mroe run and at least keep that inning alive for a while. Then maybe we wear down Burnett a bit and dont’ fall behind so early and start pressing. But in a game where Votto, BP, and a resurgent Rolen didn’t take a single AB it took a ridiculous error and an appearance by Logan “DFA’ed by September” Ondrusek to pull a 4-run win out for the Bucs. I think my biggest regret is that we let McCutchen get that one HR. Even with the win, it would have been nice to send McCutchen back home just screwed into the ground about why he can’t do anything against this club. That HR gave him a little ray of hope. Thanks again, Logan.
Easy easy schedule coming up. I hope we trounce the Brewers tomorrow and get our swagger back.
I believe I would have to agree. I had to work today so I only saw the 9th. Seeing Burnett still in there and the announcers said a 97 pitch count for him, I knew what was going on. Probably a lot of first pitch swinsg, not working the count against a good pitcher, not getting him to earn the win, etc. The thing is, I would have rathered see them with this one than either of the first 2 (not both).
@steveschoen: They really couldn’t work the count today. Burnett was throwing strikes early and often. The Reds really didn’t have the option of making him work. Burnett was on his game and when a pitcher is pounding the zone like that, you almost have to swing early in the count.
I’m not sure what all the fuss is about. The Reds took 2 of 3 from the Pirates. They lost a game in which the Pirates had the better starting pitcher, and they played with a lineup that had Cairo and Valdez in it, in place of Votto and Phillips.
No matter what happened the last 25 games, or whatever it is since Votto has been out, if the Reds played all 162 games with the lineup today, the Pirates are a better team than the Reds. You’re talking about replacing a 1.000+ OPS guy with a sub .500 OPS, and a .800 OPS with a .528 OPS.
If the Pirates take whatever people are talking about, this moral victory etc, then, well, fine. I sure wouldn’t be taking any if I were them. They had pitching advantages in 2 of the games and Votto/Phillips out.
On Bailey, it’s amazing that so many knees are being skinned jumping off the bandwagon. Perhaps it was a bit early to annoint Bailey a #2 or better type starter, just like it’s too early to panic with two bad starts.
The team still needs to rid themselves of one of Cairo/Valdez and Ondrusek. Those guys haven’t performed this year. In the case of Ondrusek, there are better options: Hoover, Masset if healthy. In the case of Cairo and Valdez, they’re just not that good. I would lean toward keeping Cairo because of past performance, i.e., 2010-11. There have to be better options out there somewhere in a waiver deal. It’s one thing if they have to play once in a while; if Phillips’ health is going to be an issue, you’d like to have someone you’re comfortable playing for a week or two.
Reds magic number is…51
Can we start a countdown on the site like we were doing for Votto doubles?
Cardinals bench (OPS) with Berkman playing:
A. Craig .913
M. Carpenter .845
D. Descalso .671
T. Greeene .640
Reds bench (OPS):
Heisey .719
Valdez .514
Paul/Harris/Costanzo .440
Cairo .395 (seriously)
When Votto returns, presumably Rolen (.694) or Frazier (.842) will be on the bench each night.
@Steve Mancuso: They are 7.5 games back. They have a better offense, but pitching wins championships.
Bailey’s start today was no worse than several starts by Latos (and for that matter one or two for Cueto) while Bailey was running off that string of quality starts leading up to his big July. The difference was that the offense didn’t pick him up before the pen ultimately let the game slip out of reach.
Bailey was the man throwing the pitches so he is ultimately responsible but it looked to me like he didn’t get a lot of help from his battery mate. Hanigan seem to see Bailey and his game differently from the way Bailey is comfortable and best equipped to pitch based on his results last year with Hernandez and this year with Meso.
The breaking balls to Walker and Marte were as poorly advised as they were thrown. I think that is especially true of the one to Marte. By then it was clear Bailey did not have a good breaking ball but was getting by via changing speeds and location on his fast ball. Brantley pretty much groaned out loud when they threw Marte a breaking pitch at 1-2 when he had been over matched on the fastballs.
The Pirates lineup wasn’t exactly murderer’s row today either:
J Harrison- backup .246
Barajas .210 .279 OB%
Barmes .207 .529 OPS
Marte .211 .574 OPS 1 for his last 16
Gaby Sanchez .198 .548 OPS
Burnett .083
Plus no Alvarez
So 2/3 of their lineup was weaker than weak coming into today and we’re talking about how bad ours was?????
@OhioJim: This is a really good point. They said efore the game this is the first time all season Mes wasn’t catching Homer. All of a sudden e was throwing that cutter that I didn’t even know he had. He nailed it a couple times, and then Hanigan started overcalling it and he started getting hammered. As much as we can say Votto and BP were out, it’s also a big deal that Homers regular catcher was out. No excuses, but we were a pretty hobbled team today against Pittsburghs ace. You can’t win them all. I just hope we really take it to Milwaukee tomorrow.
@RedZeppelin:
Yes, the “dread” whe Rolen isin the lineup is no longer from Reds’ fans, but the opposing team!
@Steve Mancuso:
Do you have a problem with Frazier at SS?
@LVW: There’s no excuse for giving up 15 hits to even the healthiest of Pirates lineups. Especially when you hold their MVP 1-for-5. This was a miserable performance from Homer and Ondeusek. They probably should have scored 10+.
@rfay00: There is virtually no evidence to support the idea that pitching wins championships. And people have looked at this. The evidence says that having a good bullpen in the playoffs is slightly more important than it is in the regular season, but that’s it. In terms of making the playoffs, hitting and pitching/defense have exactly the same importance. The BRM, for instance, was primarily and offensive team. The Cards have had bad luck.
@Jason Linden: Got to admit I’m struggling with this one. Reds had very powerful offenses in 70 and 72 and were taken out by better pitching teams: O’s & A’s. Heck the A’s had Reggie out in that series. It “seems” to me most of the time the team that can prevent runs wins. Something like “good pitching beats good hitting”. Or some such.
@CharlotteNCRedsFan: Reds were #1 in hitting, #3 in pitching, #2 in fielding 1975
1976: #1 hitting, #5 in pitching, #5 in fielding
Far from one dimensional as they had very good, if not excellent, pitching & defense.
Reds were also ranked very high in pitching and defense in 1970 & 1972.
By the way, the 1990 club was ranked #1 in pitching (tied with Expos),#5 in hitting, #4 in fielding.
I think it is more likely to win with very good pitching than very good hitting if you are weak in pitching.
The 1970 Orioles’ offense was at least as good as the Reds.
The “wild card” in the 1970 World Series was that the Reds starting pitching had essentially collapsed over the second half of the season due to injuries.
very true but the Orioles had
Jim Palmer 20-10 2.71
Dave McNally 24-9 3.22
Mike Cuellar 24-8 3.48
Not too shabby.
And a 3rd baseman named Brooks Robinson who caught every rocket off the bat of Bench, Perez, May that came his way…
Agree but the point was their pitching was “far” superior to the Reds: Orioles ERA 3.54. Reds 4.20, RPG: Reds 4.78, Birds 4.89.
IMO, it was the pitching that did us in. Did Baltimore have a starting rotation or what? Same as the A’s in 1972.
@eric nyc:
I agree; but most seem to be blaming the quality our lineup for the loss today when in theory the quality of it from top to bottom was no worse than theirs.
@Jason Linden: I guess after watching teams with good pitching win the past two world series, I was slightly mislead.
The Giants won the WS in 2010 playing small ball and getting solid pitching. The Cardinals ran out their ace when they needed a win in key games last year.
I am not an advanced stat guru, I enjoy looking at them and when you guys write articles and use them, I enjoy it.
I am not convinced that the Cards are having bad luck though. Their run differential looks great because they go out and smash a team by 6-7 runs and then turn around and lose one run games.
My two cents.
@LVW: At the same time, they got a fantastic pitching performance from their starter and we did not. Still, Arredondo and Simon were lights out. I’ll take our staff over theirs Ina second. We prove this weekend that we’re a better, deeper team.
@rfay00:
The 2009 Yankees did the same thing with Sabathia and the 2008 Phils did with Hamels. Beckett was a true ace in the 2007 Red Sox postseason run; so it’s been more than just the last couple of years.
Cueto > Burnett
Latos > McDonald
Arroyo/bailey/Leake > whoever the hell else they have.
Chapman > everyone
Reds > Pirates.
Unfortunately for Bailey, he couldn’t put these dudes away when was 0-2 count. He was nibbling around the corner,the Ball which Marte hit was a very poor call by his batterymate and himself. He should have busted the dude inside Marte is an inexperienced player but if you give him the fat pitch he did -bang 3triples and 2 runs. Seem like Bailey just can’t pitch under pressure and he just lost it ! OndruSUX and the defense did not help much 2uns and 0ne error!. The Reds in the meantime was whaling away like they were ready to go to the Brewers and gave in after the Bucos went ahead and Bailey S–Ked it up. Well at least the Pirates lost two games and they are going back to their den and meet with the snake. I hope the snakes will take of business and the Reds take care of Braun and his crew.
The top of the 4th costs us the game. We had just tied the game and they have 3 weak rh hitters coming up; all Bailey had to do was get those 3 and have the pitcher lead off the top of the 5th and to me it’s a totally different game.
Is it impossible for Frazier to play every spot in the infield and left field once a week and spot a sixth and/or 7th start at third? That would be pretty neat, because then everyone can stay fresh and the lineup isn’t any less potent.
@CharlotteNCRedsFan: Man, I hate when I have to do this, but let it never be said that I won’t admit a mistake. I did read a study some time ago that discussed making the playoffs. And when it comes to making the playoffs, it really is basically all the same. Good hitting will get you there as well as good pitching.
However, somewhere along the line, my brain decided that applied to the playoffs. And it’s doesn’t. Pitching is big time important in the playoffs. In fact, here’s a link to show it. Interestingly, the ’76 Reds are one of the worst pitching teams to ever win it all.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/pitching-almost-always-wins-championships/
It is still a team sport. Some people just think of pitching. But, then, pitching doesn’t score runs; they “assume” the team will score enough runs. But, then, just hitting doesn’t work, because then you could still score 5 runs, for example, but still need more because the pitching couldn’t hold them down. The thing with the playoffs, it is all more intense. No Cubs, no Astros, no easy games, all excellent pitchers, no AAAA pitchers you can feast on.
Homer Bailey didn’t just have a good string of starts in July. From April 14 – May 29 (start #2 to start #10), Bailey had 8 of 9 quality starts, a 3.47 ERA, .676 OPS against. On the year as a whole, he’s had a quality start 15 of 22 times, 65% or approx 2 out of every 3 starts. He’s no different than any of the other pitchers, and allowed a bad outing or two. I’m not expecting him to be the ace, and he’s been very good for a #3/4 type pitcher.
I believe he will have to return to the pitcher, he was before the last two starts, for the Reds to win a World Championship. He can be dominate when he has it going. I don’t get the last two starts and said in my initial post on this thread, I expect him to return to form next start. Didn’t say make the playoffs but win the whole deal. IMO, neither Arroyo or Leake have even the possibility to be that effective a starter.
The old overrated “quality start” stat. The NL league ERA for starters is 4.05; 3 ER in 6IP is considered a “QS” and is a 4.50 ERA or below average. Below average is not quality. 3 of his “QS” were below league average; another one was at league average; 2 others he allowed 4 runs and was a “QS” on a technicality(most unearned runs would be avoided by not allowing baserunners before or after an error). For example, in his April 20th start vs the Cubs he had 3 unearned runs; but 2 of them that scored reached base on a hit and the other one scored on a hit.
@steveschoen: Nope. Neither reality or facts. That’s the problem. The Reds had their b-team out today and got beat by a good pitcher. Someone thought this meant they couldn’t win against “aces” several people pointed out how wrong that was. Others griped about Bailey because… I don’t know why. Somebody gets worked up every time a pitcher has a rough start or two. Bailey is basically in a three-way tie for the third best starter on the team. Sometimes your third best starter gets knocked around a bit. Overall, he’s been totally solid this year.
There is a vibe that every other team in line to make it to the playoffs is perfect or, at least, better than the Reds. They aren’t. There are no ’27 Yankees out there this year. No ’75 Reds. There are a bunch of good teams, all of whom have problems. At this point in the season, I see no reason for anything other than optimism. The Reds are as good a bet as anyone in baseball to make the playoffs (and, if we’re being honest, the playoffs are a giant crap shoot, the best team almost never wins the WS now) and people want to gripe about the #3 or 4 starter having a mediocre outing and the Reds not doing much without Votto or Phillips.
It’s ridiculous. If you can’t enjoy a season like this, why are you even following baseball? If you have to win the World Series to enjoy it, you’re not getting nearly as much out of it as you’re putting into it.
I was referring to the griping. I haven’t seen any griping going on here at all. Even one post of a gripe wouldn’t constitute “And some of you are still griping? Still? Really?” What you see just isn’t there.
@Jason Linden: Thank you!I enjoy baseball and really enjoy this Reds.Kinda feels like the 1990 Reds!
Ironically, one of the Reds’ weaknesses is actually one thing that gives me a little optimism about the way they might handle the stretch run and the playoffs. This is a team that seems to vary a lot based on the context. One of our fears about them is that too many of them don’t seem to be “professional hitters” — they aren’t very selective, don’t work counts, don’t do a good job of “situational hitting,” etc. But it seems to come and go, depending in part on the situation. For example, when Votto went down, a lot of guys seemed to suddenly improve. Maybe just a coincidence, but perhaps a lot of them started taking their ABs more seriously. They’ve seemed to do particularly well in 9th innings when they’re down a run or two. Perhaps an increase in intensity? Against Verlander, they did a great job of working the count and running up his pitch total. Against the Cardinals, my recollection is they really battled throughout the whole series. Today it looked like they were on auto-pilot. They’d won two of three, they were assured of a 4.5 game lead, it was raining, etc. But if they make the playoffs, I assume the intensity will be sky-high, and they’ll take virtually every at-bat seriously. I don’t think we’ll see many 4 pitch innings when they’re down by two runs in the 7th. Maybe I’m giving them too much credit, but it feels like they can turn it up when they need to. I wish they played with intensity every single game, but they don’t. And ironically that gives me some hope.
don’t count out the CARDINALS – this team is getting better every day. The REDS have some potential but the constant bad line ups and horrible base running blunders will not allow them to go farther than the first series of the playoffs. This team needs a competent manager to execute discipline, create productive line ups, and be able to massage the pitching staff thru the post season. WE DON’T HAVE THIS WITH BAKER. The black book of rules he is using on the REDS is hindering this team. wait til October and you’ll see the results.
@ajshoe:
The Reds have more than “some potential”. They have the best record in all of MLB.
I have to laugh when the Dusty bashers start the year by saying: the Reds will never make the playoffs with DB at the helm. He not only has them in great shape to make the playoffs, but has also guided them to the best record in baseball (largely crafted while Votto has been on the DL). Now it’s: the Reds will not “go farther than the first series of the playoffs”.
I’ll take my chances.
I agree with Steve M. that they need to find another bat for the bench. If the bench has Heisey, Frazier, and a third bat like Overbay, we will be in good shape for the playoffs. Even the Yankees have had stiffs like DeWayne Wise and Russell Martin on the bench and in the lineup this year.
I seem to remember a Veteran 3rd baseman contributing to the team. Last name began with “Ro”.
And the 76 Reds had an “Ro”, too. Didn’t they?
It certainly sounds like Phillips won’t be playing today. Yesterday Baker said “not exactly sure when”. He did also say he’s close, which has been said several times. I’d guess he comes back in 3-4 more games. My largest concern is that he comes back too soon and reinjures it or isn’t healthy in the first place and is ineffective.
It sounds like Votto is 2 weeks away. Baker said 10 days to 2 weeks.
@Racine Red: I agree with all but I do think BP is more like day-to-day. If he misses the entire Brewer series, I would not be shocked. Love to see the guys get back up on the beam tonight. B-Crew is not playing well at all as they were just swept by the Cards.
@Racine Red:
Baker would keep those guys out for the entire month or until they lose ground in the NLC race if he wanted. He’s a player’s manager. I just hope in mid-September we have a nice 8 game cushion and can win the NLC a couple weeks before the playoffs start so our starters can get some rest as well as the rest of the line up.
I’d like to not count our chickens before they hatch,though. So, Go Reds and keep playing everyone tough!
@Racine Red: That’s too bad. Phillips plays well at Miller Park.
I’d be more than happy with a bench of Frazier, Heisey, Mesoraco, Overbay, and Valdez.
Sad to say but Cairo would seem to be the odd man out if they add Overbay. Sad because Cairo has been a plus bench player for the Reds until this year.
Valdez should be replaced. When you have 116 plate appearances, and you have 5 walks and 3 doubles, and no triples or homers, and you are batting .226, you are not a good baseball player. He’s not some kind of great defensive whiz. The fact that he can stand out in center field competently means nothing to me; he isn’t going to be playing there any more anyways.
@Racine Red:
Neither Valdez or Cairo are getting it done at the plate. While Cairo gives you more offense, Valdez gives you more flexibility in the field.
Valdez not only “can stand out in center field”, he also can stand in at shortstop. I like Valdez at SS more than I like Cairo or Frazier.
You add someone like Overbay and you can carry Valdez’s weak bat on the bench.
I was a bit terse. I agree that Valdez is a superior defensive SS option to Cairo or Frazier. What I was saying is that Valdez’ supporters say “he can even play CF”, which I suppose is true, but the likelihood that that will add any value from now until the end of the season is extremely small. It would take 3 OF injuries.
What’s wrong with Clint Hurdle? He’s got Josh Harrison, SS, who’s got an OPS of .710, but he doesn’t play that much because they start Barmes, OPS .533.
At catcher, Barajas catches a majority of the games, perhaps 3/5 like Hanigan. Barajas has an OPS of .632. This McKendry character, their other catcher, has an OPS of .944. That’s just weird. How bad could McKendry possibly be behind the plate?
This team is the best team in baseball and we need to change that, or replace that or releace him…Give me a break, people need to see what we have and enjoy.
I also think people need to remember what an “ACE” is and that more times then NOT they are going to handle even the best lineups.
Lets look at King Felix with Seattle, he did what on Sat. IN Yankee stadium? He shut out the Yankees. He gave up only 2 hits. The mighty Yankees who are one of the best offensive teams in baseball.
AJ is an ACE and pitching as well as any top ACE in baseball this season. Relax people…
If you were the CEO of a major company, would your message to stockholders be to stop worrying about ways to improve the product just because the share price has gone up a lot?
You are assuming making the changes suggested “improves” the product. I think we see that the product we have is the best, when you are the best, you don’t screw with…well I guess you could, go ask “COKE” how that went when they changed formula on the best soft drink in the world.
To think you can just exchange player X for Y and your team will be better isn’t always right. We “KNOW” what we have right now is the best, thus you don’t mess with it.
@Racine Red: My father-in-law bemoans the Pirates catching situation every day. He says that McKendry is good behind the plate, but I wouldn’t put a lot of stock in that analysis unto itself. Regardless, having seen that the Pirates have thrown out only 9 batters all year… I’d chalk it up as a loss and go for the hitting if I were them.
I bet we see a lot more of the Harrison kid in Pittsburgh.
The Reds’ pitching deficiencies can be managed in the post season. Cueto and Latos are horses. The problems are that Homer is lousy at GABP, and that Arroyo is lousy against lefties. Homer at home has a 5.35 ERA, giving up 15 homers and yielding a .317 BA; on the road he has a 2.63 ERA, giving up 4 HRs (in one more IP) and yielding a .227 BA. Arroyo has a slash of .303/.332.483 v. lefties and .228/.270/.352 v. righties. (And teams have taken to hitting every tom, dick and harry lefty against him in an uber-platoon. Harmon Killebrew would bat left-handed against him.)
In the playoffs, expect Homer to pitch on the road, and Arroyo to pitch against a righty-heavy lineup, if possible.
I wouldn’t mind seeing them go to a 6-man rotation shortly, to give everybody a breather for a few weeks. Or spot-start somebody and skip Homer at home one start, to give him some rest.
I can’t imagine Cairo being on the post-season roster. They will find a reason to DL him before September 1.
Every time that I say something to the Homer-bashers about how Homer is really a good pitcher and they don’t know what they are talking about, he goes out and has a clunker. In this case it was Homer’s 2nd clunker in a row. As with most pitchers, with Homer it is all about command. Command of the fastball and command of his breaking stuff. When Homer is commanding his pitches, he’s tough and when he isn’t, he’s very hitable. I had wonderful seats in Section 128 to watch Homer struggle with his command yesterday and watch him get hit hard. A lot of the outs were hit pretty well too.
All players go through slumps. Pitchers aren’t excluded from that. I’m hoping that this is just a slump for Homer but with his track record (or lack thereof), I’m wondering.
I just think Bailey is a #4 pitcher with a #3 ceiling. There’s nothing wrong with that.
Well, that’s the difference between a No. 4 and a No. 2. “Great stuff. Inconsistent.” These are the attributes of almost every No. 4 out there under the age of 31. Once a guy hits 31, its all about being “Crafty.”
Is Bailey actually inconsistent? I see four really bad starts this year. Cueto has 3 of them (though his “really bad” is a bit better than Bailey). The difference is that Cueto has a lot of good games. Bailey doesn’t. And Cueto is a top tier #1 starter.
Isn’t it more that Bailey’s good starts just aren’t that good on average? Someone quoted this 2 month stretch of good performance for him before the last two games. But his ERA was 3.47, which is #2 level but below the level of “great”. When a pitcher’s really good stretch during the season places him as a #2, he’s not a #2.
@Racine Red: Good thoughts.
My main question: how does our #3 starter match up to the other possible play-off teams? Not feeling really great about this unless Homer can return to form and I believe he will.
He isn’t a #2 at the moment but is he even a #3 when matched against the other contending clubs? If the last two starts are the measure then the answer is, we are in trouble come post-season. As has been stated before: pitching wins Championships. The saving grace might be that in post-season games, Dusty is quick to the pen when anyone other than Cueto or Latos is starting. But given Dusty’s history, I think that is a reach. Hope I’m wrong.
One more thing before I head back to work. The ESPN crew doing the Brewers/Cards game last night mentioned how the StL fans tend to really support their slumping players. It seems like when someone goes into a slump here in Cincy, Reds fans go all Philly on them and want to run them out of town (with a few exceptions). It seems like sometimes Reds fans want a player they aren’t high on to fail so that they can say “I told you he was a dud/washed-up/minor-leaguer/etc.” That may not be how it is but it is how it comes accross sometimes. It’s sad really.
@Racine Red: I always thought of him as a #2 or #3… #3 or #4 sounds about right at this point. No, it isn’t that bad and he is essentially the #3 or #4 on this staff.
It looks like Overbay has now been completely released. I hope the Reds get him for peanuts and play him against a few righties before Joey gets back!
@rightsaidred:
Good info. His bat would fit nicely into the smallish dimensions of GABP (some of his gap power would carry over the fence). Nice career BA, plus a very good career OBP.
I would take a bench of Heisey, Frazier, Overbay, Fontenot, and Mes.
Why wouldn’t the Reds consider a mild upgrade of utility infielder with Betancourt or Fontenot instead?
Betancourt or Fontenot might also be an upgrade, but I would make Overbay the priority.
Of course, I was pushing for the Reds to sign Fukudome last offseason, so what do I know?
@earmbrister: Sorry, yes, that was meant to be “instead of Valdez”. Fotenot was released by the Phillies and Betancourt was DFA’ed
Fontenot’s OPS of .683 would mark a huge offensive upgrade over Valdez (but he can’t play SS really). Betancourt’s .656 OPS would also be a sizeable upgrade over Valdez (.514)
There are better options out there now for very little other than a league minimum salary or cash considerations to a team.
The pickings are a bit slim. The Nats just grabbed Izturis. He’s just barely better than Valdez at the plate.
I just can’t get past a guy having something like a .516 OPS while batting .230 or whatever he is. He adds about 60 points from just taking 2 * batting average. That’s almost impossible.
Sorry for this Johnny Come Lately observation but 9 pitches in 4 ABs for the leadoff hitter – that reads like a bad joke.
I am ready to see Coz out of the top 2 permanently – he just is not showing he belongs up there right now.
At this point, I just don’t see Walt adding anything.
Also I would like to know if Brandon was able to PH on Friday, then was scheuduled to go Saturday…why is he not playing? How long is this going to go on now?
I hope the Reds take a long hard look at the performances of the bench players, particularly Cairo and Valdez, and decide they have seen enough to judge them for the year. We’re in August. Cairo and Valdez have made contributions here and there, but other players who are out there available, can surely produce more than Cairo’s .395 OPS. You can’t defend Cairo on his defensive flexibility because he’s a liability at every position he plays. He’s 38 and the Reds have to look at the situation without emotion.
Valdez is absolutely terrible at the plate. He swung at pitches yesterday that were so far outside they could never have been strikes. Burnett could have probably thrown even further outside and Valdez would still have swung, except Burnett had to make sure the catcher could get to it. Valdez has proven to be shaky at SS, although pretty solid at 2B.
This is one part of the roster management that has been atrocious by the club. It was hidden for the most part as long as Votto and Phillips could play every day. I’d hate to think what would happen if Cozart was hurt for any length of time.
Again if this bench is so bad how have they done what they have done with key players missing game time? I think we need to see there is more to this game then just flat numbers. This team has great chemistry right now, why would you want to mess with that because YOU don’t like the numbers put up by Cairo and Veldez?
Cairo and Valdez have contributed almost nothing but errors, outs and bad plate approaches to the current winning streak. I’ll reverse the question, if the team is playing well, should management stop considering looking for ways to improve it further?
Yep, I don’t touch a thing. Exactly how many more wins changes might bring is unkown if any. We know what this team is doing under it’s present roster, and sorry but not sure how anyone can think it’s not good enough.
Yes, according to dn4192. It boggles my mind.
Why because I believe what we have now is good enough and there is no way to know if adding these minor pieces people want to add will actually make the team better. Why mess with something that is playing well..opps forget..the slim hope it might play .700 ball the rest of the way out?
Your argument assumes its only the fans who think about adding pieces to improve the team. Don’t you think guys like Joey Votto, Jay Bruce or Brandon Phillips may actually want a guy like Scott Podsednik – LH bat, plays all three OF spots, leadoff hitter – rather than Xavier Paul? What do you think guys who may be on their last contender like Bronson Arroyo or Ryan Ludwick might think if you suggested adding Stephen Drew, having Cozart backup middle infield, and DFAing Valdez? Couldn’t that just as easily improve team chemistry because the players realize – “we really are going to go for this thing.”
Nope, I bet if you asked anyone on the Reds team they would all say they like the team they have. Again Chemistry weather you want to admit to it or not is HUGE. All you hear in almost every inteview of the players is how great the clubhouse is. I am willing to BET there isn’t one player on the roster who thinks a player change should occur at the cost of a roster player. We got Broxton and it didn’t cost anyone on the ML roster their job.
I’m not saying this means anything, because the numbers are based on kinda small samples. But Homer’s home/away split is remarkable.
Home: 5.35 ERA/5.49 FIP
Away: 2.63 ERA/3.29 FIP
His K/9 rate is basically the same an home and away. His ground ball rate is much higher at home and line drive rate much lower at home. Also strange given the overall split.
What’s different is the HR/FB, which is a staggering 18.1% at home and 5.3% on the road.
I don’t have an overall theory that can explain all of this, especially the GB% and LD%.
Some of the HR/FB is that some of the warning track flyballs on the road go into the front row in right field in Cincinnati. I think there is some nuance of confidence that Homer is still missing at home, and he pitches slightly and probably subconsciously differently. He trusts his stuff on the road, but doesn’t at home, having seen too many cheapy homers. The fact that he is so good on the road should tell us that he’s on the absolute cusp of turning the corner, but has to get over a mental hurdle at GABP that causes this. It is hard to figure.
I think the short GABP porch in RF is a bit lame, to be honest. I wish it were about 8 feet further back from the smokestacks to the foul pole.
I posted back when Votto went on teh DL what would happen if the Reds played near .600 ball during his time away and most thought that was pie in the sky…well they have a good shot at that, and we have also seen Brandon miss games and our pitching staff have a brief slumpness to their games and yet we are still near that .600 Winning %. So maybe it isn’t all about the numbers…
@Steve Mancuso: I agree that you don’t need Cairo and Valdez on the roster but I strongly feel that a good bench should have 1 guy like that. I think one of them is certainly expendable but dn4192 is right that even if one were to be replaced, what might it do to team chemistry? You’d have to put the right player in his spot and you need to look deeper than numbers to know who the right player might be. Chemisty is overrated at times because a lot of the time, it comes with winning. That said, the wrong combo of players can create a bit of a mess. Of course if Dusty is as good of a manager of people as some (including me) thinks he is, Walt should be able to trust him to keep the teams chemistry solid.
I really disagree with the notion of Cairo/Valdez and chemistry. First, if they keep Cairo it should not be because of chemistry but because they think he’ll revert to 2011 form.
In terms of chemistry, when is the utility guy any kind of problem? Those guys *always* have great attitudes, chemistry, etc—they have to, because they’re barely good enough to play in the bigs.
I don’t think you need either one of these guys, as long as you find replacements who are better. Chemistry should not be the reason to keep them. The bench the Reds have assembled in terms of backup infielders is absolutely horrible. It’s embarrassingly bad, and Mancuso is exactly right; if Cozart is out for any time it’ll once again be shown to be a disaster.
See the problem here is that there is no way to put a number of chemistry and that drives the stat geeks nuts.
If we were just to go off numbers then why have managers, just put a computer in the dugout and a computer geek who puts in the numbers and decides lineups and moves based off “numbers”. Only one problem, this game is played by humans.
I also find it intersting, those here clammering for “changes” I bet are the same who were up in arms that Walt signed Ryan Ludwick, or that Chapman is in the pen, or that Bronson is on the team this year or that Rolen was DFA’ed over the ASB and so on.
This team, has it’s faults, which all teams do, not one team is perfect, but right now, the roster the Reds have is the best in baseball for a reason. You don’t mess with that at this point, you allow for the season to play out, then see what happens and make moves in the offseason.
@dn4192:
And at what point did the Reds reach ‘this point’? Was that the magical date of August 1st after the trade deadline expired? Was that the magical date of July 27th when the Reds did not have the best record in baseball? Do the Reds keep Votto on the DL because he was unfortunate enough to be injured and the Reds do not want to risk upsetting the team chemistry by removing someone from the 25 man roster to accomodate Votto coming off the DL? You see the problem here is that there is no way to quantify the cause and effect of team chemistry and to make a statement that you don’t mess with the roster at ‘this point’ is quite frankly an absurd statement. Votto will come of the DL before August 31st and someone will be removed from the 25 man roster when that happens. Broxton was aquired in a trade for minor leagur prospects and someon was removed from the roster when that happened. If Uncle Walt feels there is a player available who will add value to the 25 man roster, he will make the change and someone will be removed from the 25 man roster. If Masset completes his rehab without any further complications before August 31st, he will be added to the 25 man roster and someone will be removed from the 25 man roster. I don’t know if adding a player like Overbay or Damon to replace Paul, Valdez or Cairo would be a good move or not, but I’m certainly not going to assume that such a move would destroy team chemistry and destroy the team in the process. I am personally content if the Reds do not sign any additional free agents now, but the fact is that there are probably two members of the current 25 man roster who will not be there by August 31st.
I personally see no reason to rush Massett back, let him work on his arm through Aug and then when the rosters expand in Sept let him join the ML roster and see how he does and allow maybe some other guys in the pen to get some rest. But come playoff time Massett in my view is not part of this roster…
@dn4192:
I believe what Steve is trying to say here is that the team is GOOD ENOUGH to win now and have been winning a lot lately, but are they good enough for October?
Cairo & Valdez apart from their miracle suicide squeeze, have been dismal.
October is a crap shoot. I doubt anyone thought St.Louis would beat Texas, they got the brakes and won the WS. No one thought the Reds would win in 90 let alone sweep. I say stay with what got you to this point and see what happens. If we come up short then readjust in the offseason.
I would disagree, both have steped up and helped this team in many ways. Valdez did just fine covering CF and Cairo did very well covering 2nd over the past few games. There is way so much more to this game then the 3-4 AB’s a player gets in a game.
@LWBlogger:
Two words: Jonny Gomes
Kidding; but seriously, love that man’s intensity AND he’s a team player.
@Racine Red: McKendry isn’t a very good defensive catcher but neither is Barajas. I don’t know if McKendry is really that good of a hitter or if it’s a matter of a small sample. I’ll have to look into it.
@byoung1989: The A’s are in the thick of it and Gomes has been really hitting this year.
Before we go hog wild for Lyle Overbay, Johnnie Damon has been DFAed by the Indians. Which one would look better in a Reds uniform???
We have 5 OF now with Ludwick, Stubbs, Bruce, Heisey and Paul, why would we add another OF who is also old…
Phillips is in the lineup as of now. I wonder if he’s really healthy; we’ll have to see.
@dn4192: It’s not improving to .700 as much as keeping the team at a high level rather than risking bottoming out to some of the risk they have exposed themselves to on the bench. Or it makes them just a pinch or two tougher in Ocotober. Game of inches, game of opportunities.
@dn4192: He is lefty and former CF who can play both corners very well (better than Heisey) so he fits the Reds defensive profile. He probably provides more consistency (but less potential) than Paul.
That said I don’t like Damon.
I like Overbay (because he eats righties alive) and his pinch hitting abilities. Replacing Valdez is impossible with another OF type – they need to find a serviceable infielder (I would take Chris Val over Valdez). I think Fontenot would be dandy.
Bench of Frazier – .842 OPS
Overbay – .815 OPS
Heisey – .719 OPS
Fontenot – .683 OPS
Would make me feel warm and fuzzy about pinch hitting.
@rightsaidred: I don’t think Damon plays a better OF than Heisey and I’m not a big “Heisey guy”. His range is now below average in LF and his already suspect arm has gotten a lot worse. He’s just not that good of a ballplayer anymore. He still is a marginally effective hitter I suppose.
@dn4192: See I’m a stat-geek and SABR member and most of us see that this is a game played by humans. Sure, we analyze it statistically and we see inefficiancies but most of us respect the human element. It’s funny because on John Fay’s old blog before it got Facebookized, I was considered more of a stat-geek. Here however, most of my views are considered “old-school”… It’s all about who you’re talking to and most on this blog seem very up to speed with advanced metrics. More up to speed than me in many areas.
To me the key is Stat Geek versus Stat Slave. You are the former and not the latter.
Right because if one wants Valdez released, they must be a stat slave. It wouldn’t have anything to do with his terrible stats *and* the fact that he swings at balls a mile out of the zone consistently.
@David: You make a good point… That’s why I said it would have to be “the right people”. You pick the right people and it won’t mess up chemistry too much. Or at least it shouldn’t.
Some idiot Pirates fan called in on one of the MLB network shows this morning and claimed that there were 20 bad calls that went against the Pirates and that proved the Pirates are a better team than the REDS.
HAHAHAHAHAHA what a dumba**
No Overbay
Per MLBTR, Walt Jockey has told John Fay that the Reds are not interested in signing Lyle Overbay. THey “like” Xavier Paul and don’t like OverBay’s limited defensive value.