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The Reds have cycled through their pitching rotation twenty times. Four of the five starters still haven’t missed a turn. Mike Leake was skipped once early in the season. The table below shows how the Reds’ rotation has performed (a) relative to the National League average, (b) in relation to each other, and (c) how they have pitched recently. The numbers in parentheses indicate performance as of the All Star break, the last time this Take Five summary was posted.
| Pitcher | IP/GS | W-L | ERA | FIP | SIERA | K/9 | SwStr% | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Cueto (26) | 6.7 (6.7) | 12-5 (9-5) | 2.23 (2.35) | 2.95 (3.00) | 3.77 (3.75) | 6.9 (6.3) | 7.3 (6.8) | 3.5 (2.9) |
| Mike Leake (24) | 6.2 (6.1) | 4-6 (3-6) | 4.12 (4.01) | 4.08 (3.89) | 3.89 (3.85) | 5.9 (6.1) | 7.4 (7.7) | 1.4 (1.4) |
| Mat Latos (24) | 6.0 (6.1) | 8-3 (7-2) | 4.30 (4.41) | 4.32 (4.41) | 3.80 (3.70) | 8.2 (8.3) | 9.3 (9.8) | 1.1 (0.9) |
| Homer Bailey (26) | 6.4 (6.1) | 9-6 (6-6) | 3.53 (4.24) | 4.23 (4.66) | 4.13 (4.37) | 6.7 (6.3) | 9.3 (9.2) | 1.3 (0.6) |
| Bronson Arroyo (35) | 6.2 (6.2) | 6-6 (3-5) | 3.76 (4.06) | 3.96 (4.31) | 4.08 (4.21) | 6.1 (6.0) | 7.0 (6.4) | 1.7 (1.0) |
| Reds Average | 6.3 (6.2) | 39-26 (28-24) | 3.60 (3.77) | 3.90 (4.02) | 3.96 (4.00) | 6.8 (6.7) | 8.2 (8.0) | |
| NL Average | 6.0 (6.0) | 551-558 | 4.00 (4.12) | 3.92 (3.94) | 3.99 (3.94) | 7.3 (7.2) | 8.6 (8.5) |
W-L - win/loss record
ERA - earned run average
FIP - fielding independent pitching
SIERA - skill interactive ERA
K/9 - strikeouts per nine innings
SwStr% - percentage of pitches that were swinging strikes
WAR - wins above replacement level
NL Average - League average for starting pitchers
Comments: No big surprises.
1. The Reds starters have been outstanding the past three weeks, with an 11-2 record. Their collective ERA is now substantially lower and their advanced measures are about the same as the league average. That’s due primarily to lagging strikeout rates. Latos and Bailey are above average in swinging strikes, but overall the staff is below league average in that precursor stat.
2. Homer Bailey, has pitched very well recently. He’s achieved major improvements in innings per start, ERA and the advanced stats as well. A blown save cost him his 10th win this week.
3. The advanced stats are finally starting to like Johnny Cueto, due primarily to his surging strikeout rate.
4. If you’re starting to look ahead (and it’s tempting) the numbers don’t give clear guidance for a playoff rotation, other than Cueto pitching the first game.
If the playoffs started tomorrow, I’d use Cueto (for obvious reasons), Bailey (because he has been as dominant as Cueto recently), and Arroyo (because I like him). This is not a slight against Leake and Latos in any way. I love that Cueto once again proves he’s a #1, Bailey has become a solid #2 and everyone else pitches like solid #3s.
Both Leake and Latos have inflated ERAs compared to how their pitching because of the first couple weeks of the season.
I think as of this moment Cueto/Bailey are clearly the #1/#2 guys and then the third choice would just be personal preference. All our starters are really doing well right now.
Latos at 3 unless he finishes poorly, as he’s the most capable of a full shutdown performance. Leake is the most flexible, and Bronson is still a box of chocolates.
Guessing that the Reds will have to use 4 starters in the playoffs, I would go: Cueto-Bailey-Arroyo-Latos. Mike Leake would be my long man in the pen. Hope Dusty would keep a close reign on Arroyo early in the game because when Bronson is off, he is off early – like the first inning. Same thing with Latos but he tends to go off the rails in the 4th-5th-6th innings if he doesn’t have it. With the Reds’ All-World pen, I see no reason to not utilize them, early and often, if either Mat or Bronson are having issues that day. Right now I have total 100% faith in Johnny and getting there in a hurry with Homer. Hopefully Latos finishes the year strong, so he can moved up to the #3 spot, as I do agree with lthedaug on his ability to shut a team down.
Very exciting times to be a Reds’ fan!
Why not use Cueto-Bailey-Latos then have Arroyo and Leake in the pen? Not because they are bad, but because their styles are so weird and every pitch is off-speed compared to the other 3, the hitting could have difficulty adjusting, no?
@RichmondRed:
Dusty likes to split up the hard thrower with a softer one. I can see a Cueto-Baily-Arroyo-Latos rotation for that reason.
The Reds really don’t have a 3 day rest rotation, so taking it one step farther, the game 4 starter takes the ball for a potential game 7. Rethinking my last post, who do you want taking that ball? Visions of the 1990 Pirates putting Ted Power out there for game 6 dance in my head … Beware overthinking it, right? Especially in late July.
Lets make it to the playoffs before we start imagining the rotation. We all know Dusty will just surprise us all with who he puts out there for game 2.
If it’s a wildcard win to get in game or just game 1 of the NLDS, we know who is getting the ball.
@gberry: Yeah, I could see that, I kinda like that strategy. You make the other team unbalanced because they have to adjust twice within the first three games. I still think we’d go with the 3 man and have Cueto-Arroyo-Bailey.
Honestly, it will depend on who we play and who has home field.
Bailey and Latos have been much better on the road, so I could easily see if the Reds get the first two games at home, it would go Cueto and Arroyo followed by Latos and Bailey on the road.
I would really like Latos pitching on the road against the Giants.
The Reds have their lowest Team ERA at 3.25 since 1972 (when it was 3.21), when their Team batting average is below averge . . .
Here’s a great website to check out historical trends for the team: http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/CIN/pitchteam.shtml.
Go Reds!
Uh oh. Trouble.
Where’d all Dusty’s critics disappear to? At least the ones who always accuse him of getting everyone injured by overworking them.
Considering how well the relievers have pitched I doubt we’d see starters pitching out of the bullpen in the playoffs. I think they’ve been satisfied with both Simon and LeCure in long relief.
Bronson Arroyo, this could be the first time in his 7 years with the Reds that he doesn’t lead the team in innings pitched – weird.
I expect the Reds would choose to go into the playoffs with a rotation of Cueto, Latos, Arroyo, and Bailey. That’s what they chose on opening day and they haven’t had much reason to change it.
In the 2010 NLDS the Reds used three starters – Cueto (1 run in 5 IP), Arroyo (1 run in 5.1 IP), and Edinson Volquez (4 runs in 1.1 innings). Obviously Volquez is gone but I think it’s worth recognizing that Arroyo pitched fairly well. He did it before, maybe he can do it again. Latos, Bailey, and Leake don’t offer any postseason starts, which the Reds will consider.