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Let’s recap tonight’s titanic struggle….
FINAL
Cincinnati 5
Houston 3
W: S. Marshall (3-3)
L: F. Cordero (0-2)
S: A. Chapman (19)
BOX SCORE
POSITIVES
–Sweep!
–Another nice outing by Homer Bailey (ruined by Ondrusek, but more on that later). Bailey pitched seven shutout innings, giving up four hits, striking out seven. He did walk five (a season high), but while his stuff wasn’t perfect, he was also the victim of some pretty terrible umpiring.
–Devin Mesoraco had two hits, including a double, and he scored a run.
–In the top of the ninth, with the Reds down 3-2, Xavier Paul led off with a double, then Brandon Phillips worked a one-out walk. After Zack Cozart struck out, Drew Stubbs came to the plate to face Francisco Cordero for the second straight night.
Stubbs came through with the clutch hit again, a crushed double off the CF wall that drove in two to give the Reds a lead they would not surrender. Overall, Stubbs was 2-5 — both hits were doubles — with two runs scored and three RBI tonight.
–Jay Bruce reached base three times: two hits, a walk, an RBI.
–Sean Marshall only pitched to one batter, but he recorded a huge out to put out the fire started by Ondrusek.
NEGATIVES
–The Reds had the game under control before Logan Ondrusek entered and tossed gasoline on the fire. He surrendered three doubles, then the Reds played some classic Little League-style defense to allow a third run to score. I can’t even describe it. Just embarrassing.
Fortunately, Drew Stubbs bailed Ondru the Giant out.
–Speaking of defense, the Reds committed four errors tonight: Scott Rolen, Ryan Ludwick, Todd Frazier, Mesoraco. That’s just not acceptable.
NOT-SO-RANDOM THOUGHTS
–In the 8th, it looked like the Reds had snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. A punch to the gut. Thank you, Stubbs. Thank you, CoCo.
–What is going on, Nation? Seven wins in a row. Fourteen wins in sixteen games. Eighteen games over .500. Since Votto went on the disabled list, the Reds are 8-2. This is just insane.
And I love it.
–During the game, I said this:
Homer Bailey’s ERA is down to 3.56 now. He’s been superb the last couple of months. This is why you are patient with young pitchers. #Reds
— Chad Dotson (@dotsonc) July 26, 2012
Bailey’s ERA is actually 3.53 now. The guy has looked really good the last month or so. It’s fun to watch Homer maturing.
–Poor old Francisco Cordero looks like his career is finished. Two straight nights, he’s blown the game (thanks, CoCo!). This thought terrifies me, though:
Scary reminder: Cordero could have signed with the Reds at pretty much any time during the off season.
— Jason Linden (@JasonLinden) July 26, 2012
#Reds made four errors tonight and still won. Paging Tom Emanski.
— Chad Dotson (@dotsonc) July 26, 2012
–First seven-game winning streak since August 2010. Did anything fun happen that season?
–Enjoy the off-day, Nation!
Source: FanGraphs
Ugly win, but a win it is.
Got to give some props to X-Paul who is definitely swinging a stick like he doesn’t like Louisville cooking.
X-Paul is 4-9 in a week along with a key PH walk, Willie Harris and Mike Costanza went like 8-62 in a few months work combined. I’ll take it and more Mr.Xavier.
One of the great things tonight was that Marty had a better view of the Stubbs hit than the TV broadcast. TV is either faster or better. So it was the rising excitement in his voice that let me know Stubbs hit was going to be a big one. Throwback to memories of all the Reds games I heard on a small transistor radio, before regular TV coverage and before the internet. There’s a lot I don’t like about the way Marty calls the game now, but it’s still electric to hear him describe a big, favorable play.
Electric, you said it well.
Can we dispense with the Coco gloating? He was a good team mate. And you know, that is someone’s career we are talking about.
I’m simply relieved that he did not sign. But it’s on him, he could have signed but he way, way, way overestimated how good he was. So I enjoy seeing the Reds beat him a little extra. Doesn’t seem too mean. Everyone knows he’s a good guy.
I lost any sympathy for CoCo when he was telling media in Toronto and elsewhere how he didn’t get treated fairly by the Reds when it came time to talk about a new contract. Well, THIS is why he didn’t get the money/years he wanted. (And the beatings he suffered in the AL, too.) ……….. He just had two “I’ll show them” opportunities, and he got beat both times by a guy who often is a strikeout waiting to happen and one of the most maddening players on the team to figure out.
I’m glad he was — and probably still is — a stand-up guy and generous in the community, I mean that. But on the field, what has happened the last two nights is a little better just because of who the Reds beat.
Oh please
A few thoughts. First…
Let’s get the violin out for CoCo, shall we?
Second, on who goes down when Votto comes back. I think I agree with whoever said that Paul is the guy who goes down, even though he has hit well in his few games and he is a lefty off the bench. You gotta think that by the time Votto gets back, there will probably only be about a week or two at the most left in August. Depending on where the Reds are at in the standings, they can probably afford to send Paul down for a week or so and bring him back up on September 1st. I just think that is more likely than getting rid of Cairo or Valdez or sending Heisey down.
Lastly, someone please correct me if I am wrong, but don’t we have an option on Ryan Ludwick for next year? I am not sure how much we would owe him if we picked it up, but I think with how he is coming on lately and also with being one of Walt’s boys, that we could see that option get picked up and have Ludwick back in a Reds uniform next year.
Granted there are still 64 games lefts and there is a lot left to be determined, so this is all speculation. But isn’t that what we do here at the Nation?
Good point… Paul isn’t gone forever if he goes down. We’ll see.
Are we sure about that? I doubt he has options.
No, I lost two to three years of my life watching him due to all the drama in 9th…
Logan Ondrusek for a new CF Shane Victorino trade rumors – take that! Ondrusek blows the game so the somewhat unpopular guy Victorino would replace, Drew Stubbs, can win the game in the 9th for the second day in a row.
I would say Stubbs 9th inning hit tonite’s was more clutch than last night’s because we were down to our last out and we had just given up the lead.
The more I think of it, this was clearly a conspiracy set up by management to devalue a trade piece and add value to the guy they want to keep! INSIDE JOB! JOCKETTY JUST WANTS TO SIT ON HIS HANDS AT THE DEADLINE!
I’m not just having fun watching baseball, I’m having fun talking to people about stats and players’ stories and gettign them into the team. Worth every bullpen managemnt blunder this season.
Go Reds!
Aren’t conspiracy theories great? I hear Dusty is on another team’s payroll and trying to throw the season but he’s such a bad manager that he accidentally led the Reds to a 58-40 record… and needs to be fired for such a disappointing season.
Or Francisco Cordero, the Reds bought out his 2012 option for $1m to make him a free agent. The Reds also offered him a new contract. Maybe he appreciates all the Reds have done for him (and paid him) and wanted to help them out. That’s a reasonable conspiracy theory, right?
Nice win for the Reds. Paul’s double got it started in the 9th, a great AB by Phillips, after being down two strikes. Drew Stubbs… clutch again! After Coco had a 30 pitch night last nt, after not pitching in awhile, Mills brings him in tonight?! We’ll take it! Bailey continues to love pitching in his home state, despite a tough nt tonight. Keep the throttle down on these strugging teams and the Reds will continue to separate themselves from the rest of the division. Onto Colo. w a nice day off!!
What is going on is that the Reds are playing an easy stretch and winning mostly with pitching and defense (tonight’s error-fest aside) just as they were before Votto went down.
So, question is, who goes down when Votto comes back. My vote is for Cairo.
Xavier Paul, no question about it. Todd Frazier will be finished at 1b when Votto returns and he otherwise gets playing time at both 3b and in the outfield. Unlike with Cairo or Chris Heisey I doubt anybody will claim that he is important to the team or important to the clubhouse chemistry – he’s just one in a stream of mediocre players competing with Harris, Negron, and Costanzo for the final roster spot. That said, Xavier Paul has hit well and should expect to be back with September call-ups.
I don’t see Cairo going down. He’s too important for clubhouse chemistry and a rt. handed pinch hitter. It’s possible Heisey could be sent down or traded by the deadline. They could get prospects back. One could be used on the bench or bullpen til Votto gets back. Then send the prospect down. It would get a little strength back in the Reds’ minor league system.
Heisey’s not going to bring a prospect of any consequence.
If the Reds send a good player down to keep a redundant, old, bad spare part, I’ll absolutely lose my mind.
Maybe “good” player isn’t the right word, to get rid of a better player to keep someone that’s redundant like Cairo, is not a smart move.
@Bill Lack: Isn’t it ironic that many here are buying into Dusty-logic: need to keep Cairo as a piece of furniture than a producer because of his………..(you fill in the blank). People let’s get a grip and not be brainwashed into this type of faulty reasoning.
@bdogg47: Not sure how much we could get for Heisey. He isn’t a highly touted prospect, and he hasn’t exactly stood out in the majors.
@Racine Red: Heisey has enough value that could bring a young AA prospect. Reds’ minor league system got depleted from the Latos trade. I see nothing wrong w a small trade for Heisey. His AB tonight in the ninth did not solidify him w Ludwick gradually playing better and Paul’s left-handed bat on the bench.
Ludwick is a corner outfielder headed to free agency, Heisey is a capable CF, 4th outfielder/platoon player and good pinch hitter who remains under team control. The Reds are trying to win this season. I see no way in which a trade of Heisey for AA prospects helps the team. Move him in a trade for an everyday CF/leadoff hitter, fine, but not for minor leaguers.
At best, a C+ type prospect.
A team in need of young, developing talent could give Heisey another chance for more ML AB’s. His anxious approach at the plate w runners on base, and his weak adjustment to off-speed pitches has to change.
A team that wants a good defensive CF and pinch hitter on the bench who can play everyday anywhere in the outfield whenever necessary… they’d want Chris Heisey. The Reds fit that description, despite two days of success by Xavier Paul. I think Heisey is worth far more to this Reds team than anything they’d get in return in a trade.
W Cairo, you never underestimate experience and chemistry on the bench. He’s been a part of a Yankees’ WS team. It’s invaluable. That’s one of the reasons Jocketty signed him to a two-yr extension. Teams need those kind of guys on the bench.
@redsfanman: It serves no purpose to send down Paul. He was tearing up AAA pitching w a .450 avg. Reds need a left-handed bat off the bench. It showed itself tonight w his 9th inn. double that started the rally.
With all due respect to Xavier Paul, he has a .249 career average and .291 career OBP with 91 strikeouts in 386 MLB ABs. Before this season he is 4/52 with 1 walk and 24 strikeouts as a pinch hitter. Yes, 4/52 as a pinch hitter according to ESPN. Cairo has been terrible as a pinch hitter this season by going 3/17.
Yes, Xavier Paul he has been a great AAA hitter, but that has never carried over to the majors. In the past two seasons he was designated for assignment by both the Dodgers and Pirates and granted his release from the Nationals this July so he could sign with the Reds. If those teams thought highly of him they would have held onto him. So far he’s been very successful with the Reds… but that’s been just two successful games. It’ll still be another week or two before Votto is ready but, again, I think you can be pretty sure that Xavier Paul will be the one sent to AAA until September call-ups.
In summary, I think Xavier Paul was a great pickup and I don’t want him to leave the organization, but he’s also nothing special and I don’t think these two successful days are an indication that he’s taken Miguel Cairo’s job.
Like you, I truly can’t believe the Reds think they have solved their LH PH bench situation with Paul based on 2 good games. That’s 2, as in two, 1+1, etc.
I’m as thrilled as the next guy when he doubles to start a huge rally, but his great minor league numbers come in hitters parks at an old age. Maybe he’s better than his previous bad major league numbers, but it’s going to take more than 3-4 good ABs to convince me of that.
I think something most of you are overlooking with Paul is his age.
The dude is 27. It’s not like he can’t suddenly figure it out and improve greatly on his past numbers. In fact, he’s right at that age where, in the majority of MLB careers, people “figure it out” and start playing to their potential.
I will take Paul over Cairo any day. Cairo is old and declining. Paul is up and coming.
And he’s “only” hit .249 in MLB? What, you mean better than Stubbs, Bruce, Ludwick, Rolen, Cozart, Valdez, Cairo and Mesoraco are doing this season? How horrible!
24 walks and 91 strikeouts in 387 ABs for a .293 career OBP. Now that he’s 27, BAM, a hitting machine in 2 of 5 games. Zach Cozart was up and coming during the first week or so of the season (.455) and last season (.324 average)… but once he got enough games it balanced out. I think it will balance out for Xavier Paul before Votto becomes available again.
If Xavier Paul returns to AAA for a week or two between Votto’s reactivation and September callups, BAM, the team’s success will disappear. Does anyone believe Xavier Paul is an important part of this team, that he makes a difference, or would anyone notice if he was gone temporarily? I doubt it. On the other hand people in the Reds’ organization seem to value Miguel Cairo for leadership and team chemistry.
@redsfanman: Honestly now, in two games Paul has produced more than Cairo has all year. Can you argue that? So my question to you is this who is more likely to have a game like Paul had Tuesday night: Cairo or Xavier? That is the only question that needs to be answered. As far as veteran leadership, I thought that was Rolen’s big calling card. Phillips & Arroyo provide plenty of “veteran leadership”.
Come on – let’s go for the gold. Some of you sound like you would be happy to make the playoffs and then go home. Reds have a few holes and chief among them is a left handed reserve who has a “chance” of producing. Yeah, I would prefer Victorino or Kotsay over Paul but right “now” that is not the choice. I would not choose Cairo over Paul and for life of me can’t understand anyone who would. Gold watch, and a possible coaching position, is all Miguel is due from the club.
Cairo has 11 hits and 2 walks, Paul has 4 hits and 1 walk. That doesn’t show that Xavier Paul has produced more and it certainly doesn’t imply that he would consistently produce more. Who is more likely to have a game like Xavier Paul the other day in the starting lineup? Probably Paul. Who is more likely to succeed as a pinch hitter? Probably Miguel Cairo, since he’s been a successful pinch hitter in prior seasons and Paul has usually been horrible in that role.
I agree that a lefthanded reserve who can pinch hit off the bench would be an improvement. At the same time I don’t particularly want somebody who can’t hit, like Mike Costanzo or Willie Harris, on the roster just because he’s left handed. Xavier Paul has plenty of time left before Votto returns but he needs to have more than two days of success to prove that he’s some sort of solution.
A few random ABs while Joey Votto is out, that’s all Xavier Paul is due from the club.
If Xavier Paul gets sent back to AAA after Votto returns it isn’t some sort of death sentence with a star player who will never be seen again. He’d be back in a few weeks, at the start of September. He and Cairo could spend the rest of the season as happy teammates, excelling in all endeavors.
@redsfanman: Sorry after watching nearly every game, I can not recall Cairo being an integral part of 2 wins. Only one is what I could come up with. XP has already had 2 in a week.
We don’t share the same vision and may have to do with age. I just don’t understand your line of thinking and doubt I ever will.
@redsfanman:
There is the point. Every reliever on this team is a “good” pitcher, at minimum. Yes Racine, even Sean Marshall. We are blessed and cursed, I guess, by an embarrassment of bullpen riches!
I still have a dollar that says on Votto’s return, Cairo suffers a sudden injury that keeps him out until exactly September 1st.
And more on what have you done for me lately, now Stubbs is the king. Look, I wanted and still want him playing over Heisey. I don’t want Span because I don’t feel the upgrade is sufficient to warrant giving up lots of stuff.
But jeez, the guy had a few good games. He could and should improve his season numbers. But let’s not think that he’s great now. He took advantage of a pitcher probably about to be DFA’d. It’s really amazing to read people praising Stubbs that wanted him sent to AAA less than a week ago.
If he hits for 2 weeks and really boosts his season numbers, I’ll take note.
@Racine Red: Please let us dispense of the “few good games” mantra. Since mid-July, Drew is batting .361 with an OBP of .470. Go check his post-All Star stats.
He looks different at the plate and as I pointed out at the time: sometimes circumstance does what nothing else can do. Stubbs has risen to the challenge – his jib was probably on the line and the Reds lost their best hitter. I’m willing to see where this goes. IMO, it is going to a very good place. Victorino or Kotsay still would be a very nice piece to add but the necessity of a Span may be off the table.
#1 Stubbs Fan
Prior to the last three games, Stubbs’ post All Star Game OPS was .570. He had three excellent games against the Astros. Color me unimpressed. I want him to stay in the lineup, but you’re basing something on 3 games.
How about this: Suppose the Reds were offering Stubbs as part of a deal for Span. Do you think the Twins would make the deal based on Stubbs’ performance after the All Star Game? I highly doubt it.
@Racine Red: Please let us dispense of the “few good games” mantra.Since mid-July, Drew is batting .361 with an OBP of .470.Go check his post-All Star stats
Wow, first Pete, then Repeat. He has had a handful of good games since the All Star Game.
I’m still pretty irritated about the 8th inning, even with the win. Baker said that it wasn’t a pretty inning. I cannot understand how you can leave a reliever in who has faced 4 batters and given up 4 rockets—when you are only up by 1 and with a RISP.
He did not bring Marshall in because of the stupid lefty/righty thing. Then why wasn’t someone else warming, such as Simon, to be in there. I cannot think of one other game all year when a reliever on this team has faced 4 batters and given up rockets to all 4. I’ve seen walks, I’ve seen some hits coupled with strikeouts, etc. Even Chapman’s meltdown vs Detroit, there weren’t rockets hit like that.
What was Baker doing there? You have *one* more out to get before you know you will have at least a 1 run lead with Chapman for the 9th. The thinking has to be to avoid losing the game with a reliever who’s got absolutely nothing.
I guess Dusty thought that somebody in the bullpen other than Marshall and Chapman could get a few outs against the Astros since those two guys have been used to pitch so often lately. I don’t think whether or not to use Marshall (or Chapman) is a lefty/righty thing, he’s just a guy who can be trusted to get outs… and he can’t pitch every day of the week.
I haven’t been able to read the game thread yet or any of the responses above this one so this might have been addressed, but where was Dusty when the Houston second baseman never came close to catching the baseball on the force out in the eighth. That call was huge.
And why did Dusty let Ondrusek face the lefty when he had Marshall in the bullpen.
Can we look at that Ondrusek for Victorino trade again?
On that call at second base, there was chatter about Dusty being back in the clubhouse at the time, but I never quite heard why he was back there, or if he was really back there at all. I wish I had a good answer (or any answer) for the second question. I think a post said that Dusty attributed it to a lefty/righty matchups thing, but as badly as it sounded like he was getting rocked, I don’t seem much justification for Ondru to stay out there.
I posted originally in the game threat but should have posted here…
Man, I was at Minute Maid all 3 nights. I went in thinking anything less than 3 wins would be not good. But I truly feel bad for Coco ‘Uh Oh’ Cordero. He was not horrible for the Reds and an awesome guy to boot. I was beyond excited after both of Stubbs hits, but I just feel bad for Codero…almost like wished the Reds just tied it and he didn’t lose both games. But nonetheless, Reds with 7 in a row, and a legit shot at 10.
I’d cut Rolen some slack. That was tough error. Hey, we’ve been at or near the top in Defense all year so once in a while, a clunker gets thrown in. All good.
Thank gawd Cordero turned down our contract offer in the off-season. Can you imagine the drama. Don’t go there. Finally, why does Dusty always pinch hit for Mesoraco in the 9th? He does it all the time. Let the man hit.
Reds are up to 2nd best ERA in NL. Pretty amazing. Homer Bailey pretty tough tonight, getting key K’s in the 1st, then double plays in later innings. Too bad homer did not get the win but he did his job.
Actually, I think Ondrusek brought the firewood, soaked it gasoline, then lit it with a match.
The bad umping also helped the Reds in the 3rd…sure looked to me like Stubbs took a called strike 3, was called a ball and he dumped a double in on the next pitch.
Keep going, Drew. Just don’t do that drop off. Keep this up, the offense can be set. Well done, Drew, and everyone else.
500 ball the rest of the year gets us 90 wins. I figured low 90′s to make the playoffs. Keep it up, boys. Almost home. I still think a lineup change is going to be needed for the playoffs.
@CI3J: Thanks for bringing a little sanity to the Paul discussion. We have put up with Harris, Negron & Costanzo, and now a guy has done what those three couldn’t do what Paul has done in 2 consecutive games and he needs to be sent packing? What am I missing?
We have at least 2 more weeks to make that roster decision. Let time tell the tale.
@Bill Lack: I don’t have a good reason. I just disagree. Had to be said.
(In case you missed it, I was playing with @CharlotteNCRedsFan comment.) Actually I do agree.
Well for what it’s worth, 16 of 18, 7 game winning streak… It’s still a 3 team NL Central race and the Cardinals are still the best built post season team. I find myself pulling for the Pirates to keep winning along with the Reds if only to keep the Reds motivated and to keep the Cardinals out. That’s not because I don’t like the Cardinals (because I do), it’s because the Cardinals could get really dangerous in the playoffs.
Good Long game last night. Homer has really taken command of his spot in the rotation, this guy can really deal for 7 or 8 innings now that his head doesn’t explode on a bad call or bloop hit. But……We got some very timely hitting against the worst team in the majors…I’ll take it…and I’ll enjoy it…but I’m not ready to say this team is where it should be. We are still one tough series away from second place. Lets really get this offense going up there in the thin air of Rockie land and put a whooping on what may be the 2nd worst team in the league. LOL!
Small sample size obviously, but if Paul can be the LF bat off the bench we’ve been looking for then I really can’t think of anythign we need to trade for. Put BP in the leadoff spot, Ludwick at cleanup, Heisey and Paul off the bench…I mean you could possibly upgrade Cairo but at some point soon Gregorious or Soto might be ready to do that. I love what Stubbs is doing, and he has the ability to do it more foten, but I’m pretty confident he’ll cool off pretty soon. I just hope this little spurt doesn’t cement his place at the top of the order in Dusty’s mind.
I know Dusty will throw an absolute fit but I simply can’t believe anyone but Cairo will go down when Votto’s back. You just can’t make an argument for anyone else with the possible exception of Bray. The choise would really have to be either Frazier because they both fill the same role in a Votto-Rolen administration or Heisey because they’d both be RH pinch hitters. I’d love to see Dusty and Walt rationalize sending either of those guys to Louisville to keep Cairo’s sub-.200 bat on the roster. Just make him a bench coach and give BH his spot on the 40-man. Problem solved.
With the emergence of Frazier being able to do anything (we apparently are the only ones who know this) such as play first base, Cairo serves no purpose to this club anymore.
He was the backup corner IF. Rolen and Frazier play 3rd, Frazier and Votto play 1st. Where does Cairo fit?
@H8theDrake: I think it’s like a 4.5 million option…kinda high
@redsfanman: Well said. I’m excited and happy about Paul, but there’s no reason to reasonably expect him to perform above his head the rest of the way out. It’s a crapshoot. I suppose I’d rather roll with him than Cairo, but I sure won’t be surprised if his number gets called for Louisville.
I just have fear of hearing Marty two weeks from now: “Cowboy, as good as he was when Paul first came up, he’s that bad now. It looks like he’s got no idea out there sometimes.” (That’s Marty to a tee isn’t it?
) I think we are seeing a very small positive sample, and of course comparing that to the disaster of Willie Harris et al. I understand the excitement, I do, but color me skeptical in this case. If it’s lightening in a bottle from here on out for Paul, great.
@rfay00: B-R says he only has 2 yrs of service time and he’s arb eligible for the first time in 2013… so I’m not certain, but it looks like he’d still have an option left at least.
All this debate about who should be dropped when Votto gets back…. why would anyone assume there isn’t going to be another injury by then? Have people forgotten Rolen is on this team?
@zippy: I choose to believe Rolen has been cured by the healing waters of the Ohio River. Or not.
I think the trade was nixed not because of Ondrusek’s value in the pen, but because Victorino makes $8.5 million to Ondrusek’s $493k.
Except it’s not going to cost nearly that much for 2 months of him.
And they’ve said that they’re willing to add salary.
My take is that a) we don’t know for sure that the offer was straight up and the deal may have included another piece, and b) the years of team control.
Ondrusek isn’t great, but he’s been a useful piece on the team and they have him under control for 4 more years I believe. Victorino would be 2 month rental, and unless he turned it around, not a big upgrade over Stubbs.
@Matt WI: I don’t expect Paul to play like this for long, and I dont’ know that I really expect him to be anything but a very average pinch hitter, but the fact of the matter is he bats from the left side and, like it or not, we need one of those guys on our bench. It WILL cause opposing managers to make pitching changes late in ballgames. And, while you’re right he’s playing over his head now, he has been hitting the ball very well in AAA all year and there’s no reason to think he won’t be a perfectly competent pinch hitter in the majors now. Compare that to Cairo who is a positively terrible hitter at this point in his career and should be the last guy off the bench to pinch hit (behind Leake and Arroyo as far as I’m concerned) and the only reason he’s on the club is because of his veteraniness.
A lot of people have been criticizing Baker for the bad pitching decision last night, which they’re correct to do (just no rational explanation whatsoever), but I think we should be focusing more attention on the fact that the worst (or, optimistically, second worst) hitter in the lineup is leading off every night. If XPaul or BP had failed to reach last night, the game would have ended with Cozart’s AB (I’m assuming he’d have made an out no matter what the situation was), and Stubbs and Bruce never even get a chance to swing the bat. As I’ve pointed out several times, the tragedy of having a bad hitter leading off isn’t just that Baker is minimizing the number of runners on base for the best hitters, but also that he’s maximizing the number of plate appearances for a bad hitter and reducing the number of chances for his best hitters. Of all people, Cozart now has more plate appearances than any other Red. And on those rare occasions when Cozart reaches base, he almost never attempts to steal, and with Stubbs hitting behind him the hit-and-run is basically out of the question. Yesterday’s pitching choice hurt the team’s chances yesterday, but Baker’s lineup hurts the team’s chances EVERY game. I can’t believe nobody is able to put an end to this madness.
@eric nyc: Fair points, fair points. I think my position is related to an idea that I didn’t really add: That I wouldn’t let Paul’s performance in any way stand in the way of making a trade for someone with more experience and/or talent (for either him or Stubbs). If there is nobody to be affordably obtained that can meet some of the needs you outlined, then so be it. If we’re talking simply a Paul vs. Cairo decision, there a lot of good reasons to go with Paul as you pointed out.
“I don’t see Cairo going down. He’s too important for clubhouse chemistry and a rt. handed pinch hitter. It’s possible Heisey could be sent down or traded by the deadline. They could get prospects back. One could be used on the bench or bullpen til Votto gets back. Then send the prospect down. It would get a little strength back in the Reds’ minor league system.”
I don’t buy that veteran presence stuff. They already have plenty of veteran/clubhouse chemistry guys. I’d rather someone that could hit off the bench. Besides, Rolen/Frazier will be the RH PH when Votto comes back. The Reds don’t need two utility players (Cairo, Valdez) on the bench. They need a LH PH bad….I know he won’t come but Giambi would be perfect.
@Matt WI: I still think Victorino for Ondrusek would have been a steal (anyone NOT think that after last night?) but at this point I’m also thinking of the next couple years. Unless you can actually package Stubbs and some lesser prospects to get the upgrade at leadoff and in CF then I don’t think our farm system can handle being depleted anymore than it has for whatever marginal upgrade we could get. As everyone keeps pointing out, a lot of our offensive problems are squarely on Dusty’s insistence to not use his roster efficiently. We have a leadoff hitter. His name’s Brandon Phillips. We have a cleanup hitter. His name’s Ryan Ludwick. Drew Stubbs should be batting 8th. Cozart should NEVER be leading off, though I’m ok with him batting 2nd where he’s had success. Still, any rational manager would have Cozart and Stubbs no higher than 6-7. The only way a trade really helps is if it does something to take the decision out of Dusty’s hands by taking Stubbs off the roster and putting in a guy like Victorino or Crisp who clearly bats leadoff. And even then I don’t think that’s better than just reshuffling the lineup we already have.
Sorry I don’t, I am not that impressed with Shane and what he would bring. Logan had a bad outing last night, so what, like it hasn’t happend to other pitchers. Obtaining “rentals” is just a bad idea in my view, this team is set as it is, leave it alone and let it play.
As for Cairo, exactly how much in game time has he gotten this season? Baseball is a tough enough game anyway and to get just random starts at best makes it even tougher.
In all fairness Miguel Cairo has had plenty of playing time and he’s used to this role as a part time utility player. He’s built a long career for himself in that role. He’s definitely having a bad season. On the other hand, I think he’s still capable of being reasonably successful as a utility player and pinch hitter. He’s a veteran and part of the team chemistry and I don’t believe that dumping him in August works in the team’s best interests.
Here’s what’s typical of this site:
Miguel Cairo had two good years and is having a bad season, as you say.
Wilson Valdez, in his first 76 PAs, had an OPS of .500. Cairo’s season to date is about that many PAs, and his OPS is .400. Today, people extol the virtues of Wilson Valdez, who’s improved since his first 76 PAs—and, they want to get rid of Cairo based on his bad small number of PAs.
I’m fine with DFA’ing Cairo, I don’t think the team will crater if he’s gone, but I can understand why the Reds might believe that he’ll play significantly better in the next two months.
@Racine Red:
actually, it seems like what is typical of this site, is people judging what’s typical of this site. doesn’t seem to add much to the discussion in my opinion.
@dn4192: The statement about Ondru is true. He has been lights out for a while now and his velocity has been up too. Except last night. Everybody is going to have games like this and it doesn’t mean that so-and-so sucks. To me, it is “all” on Dusty leaving him out there when the lefty came to bat.
Imagine if that had been Sean Marshall after a couple of seeing-eye singles. His butt would have been out of there and rightfully so. But why-oh-why the double standard? The Reds have nothing but decent, or better, pitchers in the pen. So why let a guy go out there and continue to get bombed? Inquiring minds would like to know. Think Dusty would answer that probing question?
Well, everyone does not have games where they come in and give up 5 straight rockets. I’d like to hear of one example of another Reds reliever who was that bad. Not that giving up 5 rockets is unprecedented or anything.
Ondrusek is the worst pitcher in the bullpen besides perhaps Bill Bray, who’s impossible to evaluate this year because he’s not pitched that much. Do you dispute that? Why he’s in a high leverage situation and Simon sits for a week is beyond me.
@Racine Red: Okay here you go:
Arredondo – April 9 vs Cards, 1/3 IP, 2 hits, 2 walks, 3 runs all earned
Bray – April 18 vs Cards, 1 IP, 4 hits, 3 runs all earned
Chapman – June 19 vs Indians, 1/3 IP, 2 hits, 2 runs both earned
Hoover – June 2 vs Astros, 2/3 IP, 3 hits, 1 walk, 2 runs both earned
LeCure – June 28 vs Giants, 1 IP, 3 hits, 1 walk, 2 runs both earned
Marshall – April 13 vs Nationals, 1/3 IP, 2 hits, 2 walks, 1 run earned
Marshall (*) – April 26 vs Giants, 1 IP, 3 hits, 1 walk, 3 runs all earned
Marshall (*) – May 19 vs Yankees, 1/3 IP, 4 hits, 2 earned runs
Ondrusek – July 25 vs Astros, 2/3 IP, 3 hits, 3 runs, 2 earned
Simon – April 7 vs Mariners, 1 IP, 2 hits, 2 runs both earned
(*) couple of extra examples of Marshall because I knew you would probably care to see he was just like everyone else in the Reds’ pen – they have “games like this”.
I hope this helps you see my point. Even the Great Chapman had a bad game and who would of thought that?
Hey, ignore Chapman’s few bad games and he’s been perfect. DUH. It’s weird, if you like a player his bad games are irrelevant, if you dislike a player his bad games are everything.
It’s amazing how quickly some people have turned on Logan Ondrusek. He was great to start the season, now he’s the ‘worst pitcher in the bullpen’ who is absolutely horrible. Alfredo Simon on the other hand, he gave up 2 runs before striking out the side in his debut and was hated… since then he’s been great but he’s been largely ignored. Oh well. Whatever makes fans happy.
@redsfanman:
You seem to think that it’s just fans being fickle or something, but there’s a reason for it.
Ondrusek has a FIP of 4.38 and an xFIP of 4.87 and both of those numbers have been high all season. They are better predictors of future ERA than current ERA. Many of us have been waiting for the other shoe to drop.
Why are they so high? Because he has the lowest k rate of any reliever on the team (6.03/9IP) and the second highest walk rate (4.58/9IP). That means that he’s going to have a lot of baserunners, and eventually going to give up runs.
Congrats! You might have gotten the disappointment you’ve been waiting so long for! Time to celebrate!
First you call people out as fickle for being down on Ondrusek, then you lash out when they give you a reasonable explanation?
Don’t let the facts get in the way of your opinions I guess.
My original point was that Baker should have gotten him out of there because no other Reds pitcher has come into a game and given up 4 straight rockets. I still believe that’s true, and nowhere did I ever say that Ondrusek is the only pitcher to have a bad game.
I won’t talk about fans turning at the drop of a hat because Wally Mo Pena will get upset, but I’ve been an Ondrusek detractor all year, not recently. His peripheral stats stink. He doesn’t throw strikes and he doesn’t strike people out. He isn’t a good pitcher. He’s not a terrible pitcher either, and I never said he was terrible, but he stands out in the Reds bullpen as the worst pitcher and I believe him to be a below NL average major league reliever. I will continue to call for him to be the last man out of the pen, the mop up man, no matter what he does tomorrow, the next day, or the next week or month, unless he goes through a significant period of time where he gets his walk rate down to 3 per 9 IP or less and strikes out 7 or more per 9 IP. I’m not holding my breath.
There’s no reason whatsoever that Stubbs/Cozart have to hit back-to-back. Stubbs is a streaky hitter. Generally speaking, when he’s making contact, he’s a very good hitter. When he’s swinging and missing a lot, he’s terrible. Seems to me a smart manager would have noticed that fact and adjusted his lineup accordingly. When he’s hot, Stubbs should be hitting 1 or 2. When he’s cold, he should either be on the bench or hitting 8th. Cozart, it seems to me, has been much more consistently mediocre, and he should remain at the bottom unless he shows significant signs of improvement, which I don’t expect to see this season. I’m a Cozart fan, but I’d be a much bigger fan if he were hitting 7th.
@eric nyc: Well I think Billy Hamilton will be in CF in two years (and one and a half is possible) so if you can get something for Stubbs while he’s 27 and hot then I’d do it.
@zippy: I agree Cozart shouldn’t be batting that high up. I don’t understand why they haven’t tried Hanigan 2nd when he’s catching. Well, I do understand actually. I’d always bat Cozart 8th. If you don’t want your catcher 2nd, then put Frazier there.
Co-Co exploded in the big time. he probably kicked his own butt for not accepting the offer from the Reds. The dude wanted to beat the Reds real bad but he just couldn’t throw the ball as he was once able to and the result … you know it.
About OndruSuX- the dude is up and down, no one really can trust his pitching – Last night he was Mr. Andru3doubles… So he won the SSSS award! I still feel that the Reds need to trade Ondruboob for someone who can hit and help on the bench. Paul Xavier, Valdez are able to help. HI- ZZZZ was too anxious, Cozart is fading fast , Stubbs is up and down and old man Cairo is a walking Egyptian Mummy!
@eric nyc: I agree- Ondru Boo is an Ondru 3 Doubles for batting practice ! His arm is Puff , thus they should have traded him to the Philly.
@davidphillips6: Absolutely agreed – great guy, even if he was occasionally shaky out of the pen for us. And yes, you should never root for someone to fail (Stubbs to beat him, fine, but not for him to walk 6 guys or something). I hope he’s perfect the rest of the year, with no saves against us.
Cordero led the Reds’ bullpen in ERA in 2009 and 2011 but you’d think he was a 20 game loser from the way he’s always been treated by Reds fans.
@CharlotteNCRedsFan: Cairo=Walking Egyptian Mummy…he nees to retire before he broke all his joints! he needs to quit when he is ahead and goes out with a good batting average! He tries hard but it is time to hang it up. I like him and his attitude as a player. He is a team player but he needs to also realize that he needs to retire and be a coach !
@dn4192: I still think there’s no need to give up a major league reliever for victorino. if the yanks can get ichiro for 2 prospects, then victorino can be had for prospects. the phils are in dire need of middle relief help, not just now, but for the future. I see this victorino for ondrusek trade as upgrading the phils with marginal (if any) improvement for the reds. why make the phillies better? that’s why i say no to the trade.
Also, could you bear watching vistorino and his “bug-eyes” every night???
biggest take away from last night for me was about bailey. i’m finally starting to see the potential that everyone has been talking about all these years. his off-speed stuff was nasty, and he looked like he could hit his spots when he needed to.
he honestly looks like the second best pitcher on this team now, and what a lift that is. the reds have the second best ERA in ALL OF BASEBALL now. i didn’t think that i would ever be able to say that.
got to give props to brian price at this point. for whatever his role has been in shaping bailey and leake, the reds owe him big time.
@Racine Red: you can always come up with splits to prove a point though. his second half OPS is now .811, so why throw out the good games to get to a bad number?
span may be a slight upgrade from stubbs, but stubbs has been a better player over the last two years. from what i’ve heard, the asking price is pretty high, and i think this team can definitely win with stubbs.
I don’t want Span. I’m just making a point. People are ignoring the whole year, when Stubbs has been bad, to make their point. Again: I have been advocating Stubbs over Heisey, and I also think they can win with Stubbs. But Stubbs has a long way to go to be any kind of decent hitter this year.
that’s totally fair. i agree, stubbs has a long way to go to get back to a decent season. he’s on pace for less than 2 WAR, which puts him in the bench player zone.
the thing i always thing of with stubbs is that his splits are so extreme. he crushes lefties and is terrible vs. righties. i wonder if there’s a way they can give him a little more time off vs. righties and get someone else in there.
Hmmm. Victorino crushes lefties even more than Stubbs and stinks vs righties, so that wouldn’t help. There has to be a platoon player who’s strong against righties available, no?
@Racine Red: wilson valdez is bad, but cairo has been worse. there’s no real argument there.
the reds need a LH on the bench, paul shows promise, and cairo has been the worst player on this team so far this year.
when people say that they want cairo sent out when votto comes back, that’s all it comes down to. it’s reasonable, and rational, and doesn’t seem very kneejerk to me.
if the reds really want to improve their bench, they’d get rid of both of them.
Yes, both of them should go for upgrades. But is indeed kneejerk to choose Paul over Cairo based on Paul having a couple good games, instead of looking at Paul’s career. If the brass evaluates it overall and thinks Paul is more valuable, fine with me. E.g., left handed bench hitter importance, etc.
Any chance we bring Laynce Nix back? Not sure what is situation is with Philly, but I’d be all for that.
@Racine Red: Racine, was that a rhetorical question? I wasn’t sure so I’ll treat it as not and my apologies if it was. HELLO!!! Does the name Heisey ring a bell with anyone?
@Racine Red: well, denard span has a .750 OPS vs righties, so if somehow they got span and kept stubbs, they could work some kind of platoon out. but i really can’t see that happening.
other than that, doesn’t really seem like there’s a good option. best case is probably to get stubbs bunting more vs righties and just trying to get on base any which way he can.
Hah, I was going to type out a big long post about people getting too grumpy over taking roller coaster rides with their favorite player’s performances then I realized that instead we should just focus our ire on a target we can all agree on since we have an off day:
Baker’s lineups. If we started a pool right now for a specific good sensible lineup I’m not sure anyone would collect on it by season’s end. That more than anything else about this team drives me bonkers.
Ask however many fans for this team’s ideal lineup and you’ll get the same number of different lineups – getting a small percentage to agree on a specific lineup would be remarkable. Brandon Phillips, Drew Stubbs, and Ryan Hanigan tend to be key to those debates.
If the team manages to go on some run, like, move into first pace, go 8-2 or something without Joey Votto, complete a few sweeps, go 18 games over .500, maybe fans can accept rather than criticize the team’s performance. It’s unlikely.
It’s fun to look at all the difference numbers that occur in MLB…but when all is said and done, only 2 matter. How many W and L’s you have. Doesn’t matter how you get them or with what combination. Right now the Reds have I believe 58 W’s and 40 L’s and there are few teams with more.
That would be the point of the joke. If we all picked our favorite sensible lineups.. we still wouldn’t see any of them by the end of the year. Unless of course someone out there thinks Stubbs/Cozart in the 1 and 2 holes is sensible? I dunno.
@dn4192: Ah yes the numbers…I agree it is fun. The Reds starting pitchers are 5th in MLB for ERA @ 3.60. That includes the horrendous starts in April for Latos & Leake when they were pitching before waking up from their long winter hibernation. Leake had a 6.65 ERA in April and Latos wasn’t much better at a 5.97. I’d match the Reds starters against anyone (including the Nationals) right now and take my chances. The Reds and Nationals also have two of the top 4 records in MLB. The Reds relievers have the best ERA in MLB at 2.53 by a smidgeon over the Bucos at 2.57. This is especially impressive since relief pitching is where the reds have suffered the most from injuries with Madson and Masset out for the entire year and Bray out or ineffective while coming back from injury for the entire year. The Reds and Pirates also have two of the top five records in MLB. There is simply no question, the Reds success to this point is directly attributable to their pitching.
Burnett is dominating the Astros tonite more than any of out starters did this week.
@Racine Red: Pretty much I agree about Ondrusek. I said last week that I did not understand why Ondru seems to always get a free pass when folks start talking about who goes if/ when Massett returns.
If the Pfils really did offer Victorino for Ondru straight up, the only reason the Reds didn’t jump on it had to be that they also wanted some portion of Victorino’s remaining salary sent with him and the Pfils would not go along with that or at least not for as much as the Reds felt they needed to get to make the deal.
The reports I have seen regarding Victorino had the Phiilies wanting a young, proven RP AND a young OF or 3B rather than a straight up deal Ondru for Vic.
According to Cot’s, Victorino is going to have over $3M still owed him for the last 2 months of his contract. No way the Pfils get a “young proven RP” and another MLB level or near MLB level young player unless they send pretty much all of Victorino’s remaining salary with him. And even then I think it is a stretch for the Pfils.
@Racine Red: what did I do? did you read my posts?
Saw a report that Dexter Fowler might be available. It would take a lot to get him probably, including Drew STubbs, but he would be an impact pickup.
He’s a switch-hitting leadoff man with great speed and some power. He’s having a great year this year, but his career numbers (.269/.360/.432) would play great at the top of our lineup. He’s also only 26 and under team control through 2016.
The rockies pitching is terrible. I wonder if Stubbs, Corcino, and Hoover could do it.
@wally mo: The one problem I forsee regarding Fowler is his agent is Scott Boras and Boras can be a real problem. Right now, the only players Boras represents on the Reds is Madson and Brackman. Madson was a cheap, one-year option for the Reds that simply fell into their laps in the offseason and Brackman was a flyer aquisition hoping to strike the mother lode from the trash heep. Fowler would be another matter entirely regarding contract negotiations.
Can we all agree the Reds have a VERY good chance to make the playoffs this season? Good.
Can we all also agree that the current Reds pitching staff SHOULD match up well with pretty much anyone else in the National League? I think they have proven that thus far.
Now then, let’s just say the Reds go into the playoffs with Ondrusek and the lineup the way it is. Compare that to a team with Victorino in the lineup or as a bat off the bench, without Ondrusek in the pen(likely replacing him with Masset or allowing Simon to pitch in more high-pressure situations). Which team has a better chance of winning the NLCS and World Series?
At this point, even with Ondrusek being under team control for the next 3 or 4 seasons, do we really believe he is an essential piece to a WS-winning team? Isn’t that what should make this decision? Give up Ondrusek to get a guy who may help you meet your ultimate goal. Seems like a “fair trade” to me.
@BloodyHo: That’s a fair point. He has two more years of arbitration though, so it’s not like there’s that much negotiation that has to happen if they don’t want to work with Boras.
Stubbs will hit Arb this year, so Fowler is one year ahead of him, and will be a more expensive because of that for the next two years. That said, he’s they type of CF that you’d love to put at the top of the lineup, and you know that’s where Dusty would put him because he plays CF or SS.
@BloodyHo: Now being reported that Fowler is off limits in trade, so it’s a moot point anyway.