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Let’s recap tonight’s titanic struggle….
FINAL
Arizona 7
Cincinnati 1
W: I. Kennedy (7-8)
L: M. Latos (7-3)
BOX SCORE
POSITIVES
–None.
NEGATIVES
–Mat Latos. Jose Arredondo. Zack Cozart. Jay Bruce. Scott Rolen. Mostly Mat Latos, though.
NOT-SO-RANDOM THOUGHTS
–Reds are still in first place. They have another game tomorrow. Good night.
Source: FanGraphs
This is more of a “cap” than a “recap.” But probably all this game deserved.
Reds are tied for first place, not exclusively “still in” first place. Just sayin’.
If this was the last game, I agree. But it isn’t.
Pretty uninspiring start for Latos. Hopefully we don’t have to wait a month to 6 weeks like at the first of the season for him to get his act back together.
–Hanigan’s OPS keeps drifting lower–.705 now (Mez 17pts. lower) Tonight was a perfect opportunity to get Mez a couple ABs—down big, need some offense, starting pitcher gone from the game. I love what Hanigan does for us, but we need to rest him a bit more to get the most out of him. Mez has the higher upside, he’s been around the league now, and his numbers are trending up instead of down.
–Not that it mattered, but the home plate ump was terrible. All you ask for is consistency, and he couldn’t even give you that.
–I hate nights like tonight when the team marches in lockstep to the scouting report right off the edge of a cliff. Gheesh, by the 6th inning you’d think they would try a different tactic, but noooooo.
–Bray is steadily improving as Arredondo stumbles. A switch in roles, perhaps?
–I wish pitchers would throw at Ludwick every at-bat. It usually leads to an extra base hit.
I’m worried there is going to be “nothing to see here” for the next 3-4 weeks.
Our hitting approach is so terrible. Zero walks. First inning we had five batters see a total of ten pitches.
Calling for Cozart to bunt in the first inning, down 2-0, with Stubbs on *second* was one of the most discouraging things I’ve ever witnessed.
Cozart is very discouraging right now regardless of what he is doing or being asked to try to do.
Dusty has said that Cozart was the most MLB ready of anybody to come up to the MLB team since Dusty has been in Cincy. Cozart’s lack of a coherent batting philosophy makes for more discouraging thoughts.
If this were facebook, i’d hit the like button about a thousand times regarding that comment.
Whether he was called to do so or not, wtf. Hey, Arizona, here’s an out! Stubbs is on second base with no one out. Here, have an out. You’re welcome.
I have to agree. It’s like Baker has relagated that we are going small ball until Votto gets back. I’m not one to just go up and whack away, either. Just try to get a single.
@Sultan of Swaff:
In fairness to Hanigan, he could well be nursing an injury of some sort, especially given the position he plays. However much as we have seen in the last 3 years, he is running down like a watch that needs rewound or now days I guess it would be a laptop with a suspect battery).
Meso has caught the two well pitched games of this home stand, including handling Chapman in a saving/ winning situation of both of them. He also looked much better behind the plate on the west coast swing than he had earlier in the year. I’d like to see them start giving him more work.
Too bad Navarro isn’t on the 40 man. If he was they could more easily give Hanigan a break (2 week DL stint) to see if that would help to recharge his batteries.
The one, and only positive, I took from tonight’s game was Bray’s outing. Simply DOMINANT. Probably overlooked amongst the rest of this train wreck, but, for ‘ol Bill B., in light of all that’s happened this season, (not even referencing the other night) that was something to feel good about. I hope Bray tucked that away and comes back out next time, dealing like he can. If we’re going to survive this, we’re going to do it w/ our pitching and defense. Really glad to see Bray dole it out tonight, despite all the rest.
Spoken like Thom. No offense, just saying that is how Thom would say it.
Cozart is still a rookie, and he’s going through a typical rookie slump. Fine. I don’t understand why he insists on swinging at so many first pitches, but I don’t begrudge him for struggling. The question everyone should be asking, every single person, every single day, at least once an hour, is why he’s still hitting at the top of the order. He doesn’t get on base much, almost never steals, isn’t very good at “situational” hitting, isn’t a particularly good bunter, etc. He does absolutely nothing you would want one of your top two guys to do (except play shortstop, of course), and yet he’s been there for as long as I can remember. It was indefensible a few weeks ago, and now it’s approaching a felony. At this point I would rather see literally any other regular player hitting 1 or 2. Pull a name from a hat, and as long as the hat doesn’t include the name Cozart, we’re going to see an improvement at the top of the order. But Baker insists on sticking with it, because Baker is convinced he’s smarter than everyone else and sees things nobody else can see.
I’m just curious how much longer the ‘Cozart is still a rookie’ defense can protect him from criticism that he doesn’t reach base enough to be a regular MLB player. Unfortunately if you pull any name from a hat somebody can make a darn good argument why THAT guy shouldn’t be at the top of the order either.
I don’t think Dusty believes he’s smarter than everyone else, I think he realizes that he has a better understanding of who is on his roster and that his problems are not solved by the argument that ANYBODY must be better than _______.
How does Baker have a better understanding of who is on his roster than we do? I’m pretty sure we have access to the same roster he does, all the relevant stats, and we’re able to watch the same games he watches. The fact is, Cozart’s OBP is lower than every regular except Stubbs and Rolen. MAYBE if I had to pick between Cozart and Rolen hitting second, MAYBE I would opt for Cozart. But just barely, and I’m not sure about that. But it’s hard to see how Hanigan, Bruce, Frazier, BP, Ludwick, Mesoraco wouldn’t do more damage up there than Cozart does. Not only is he not getting on base in front of the big hitters, he now leads the team in ABs. Think about that. At the current pace, Cozart will have had more plate appearances than ANYONE ELSE on this team. I assure you Baker doesn’t have access to ANY information that could possibly justify giving Cozart more chances than BP, Frazier, Bruce, Ludwick, Mesoraco. Oh, and Votto. As of tonight, I believe Cozart has passed Joey Votto in plate appearances. And that’s with Votto only missing three games with this knee thing. Think about that for a moment.
That is the problem. Even with this bad recent stretch, Cozart would not be facing much criticism at all if he were batting between sixth and eighth and he sat once every ten days for Valdez. Instead he is has played more than any other player on the team and batted exclusively at one or two while posting the worst OBP of any starter save Rolen who is closing the gap. His statistical profile for the year shows that he does not benefit the team at the second or first spot in the lineup as he would at the bottom of the order.
It’s not a criticism of Cozart so much as it is a criticism of management for “protecting these young kids” when it comes to Frazier and putting Cozart in situations that highlight the weaknesses of his game at this point.
That’s a strawman, I’d argue. One person said pull a name. In reality, having the guy with the worst OBP on the team leading off is indeed a bad idea. I’d say put Phillips there, but I will grant you that the team doesn’t have an ideal leadoff hitter.
In terms of Cozart not reaching base enough to be a MLB regular…if he were to have a .290 OBP but slug .400, he’s most certainly good enough to be a MLB regular shortstop. It wouldn’t be great, but it’d be ok. I am, though, concerned about his lack of ability to reach base and what it could eventually mean to his overall offensive profile.
Stubbs also for that matter. Sure, Stubbs can steal. But, first, given how little he has gotten on base this year, that would mean fewer steals. Second, hitting in front of Votto means fewer steals. Third, I believe Baker simply hasn’t had Stubbs steal much this year.
That is one thing I believe with Baker. I can’t help thinking Baker doesn’t have the team work on bunting and stealing much at all. Like, in comparison, Morgan made stealing an art, a study. I don’t remember him ever being known for his speed but more for his jumps off the pitcher, slides to avoid tags, etc. I don’t see that from Stubbs. It’s like Baker sees speed in Stubbs so labels him “You’re our basestealing threat.” That means nothing if you don’t work on the actually stealing, if you don’t get on base more to be able to take even more advantage of your speed, etc.
But, from what I can recall, that was the kind of player that Baker was, at least who I remember. He was pretty much a swinger. He rarely considered a bunt, not much of a speedster, it was pretty much for him always get up there and just hit the ball, even an aggressive hitter like many have described our hitters. And, many times, teams take on or assume the style of their coach. Can anyone remember Baker’s playing? This is only what I remember. I do only remember him with the Dodgers, and this is what I remember.
Here’s a serious trade idea.
Jay Bruce for Justin Upton.
They make the same money, same length contract I believe. Both are disliked by significant
segments of their fan base.
@Racine Red: I think Bruce has some limited no trade language in his contract. No idea if Arizona would be on his good list or bad list.
That’s not a serious trade idea.
1. The Reds are not trading Jay Bruce. It is not going to happen this year.
2. How is that really an upgrade just even based on what they have actually done?
Jay is streaky, he has been that since he got to the bigs. The last week or so he’s not hitting, next month he might hit 10 HRs. Ride it out.
They are 1-2 in this series, no need to pull the eject lever.
First, I do think it’s a serious idea. I realize they won’t do it.
Second, I never said it was an upgrade; I think it’s a fairly lateral move. In my mind Upton and Bruce are very similar players. And I’m certainly not posting this idea because Bruce is slumping. I’m suggesting the idea because fans, like people on this site, absolutely cannot stand him. I think it’s unhealthy to have a guy that so many fans dislike. Upton is kind of like Bruce, although perhaps even streakier. It might do them both good to start over in a new location.
Reds fans, like people on this site, absolutely cannot stand almost anyone associated with the Reds. Joey Votto, Brandon Phillips, Ryan Hanigan, Johnny Cueto, Aroldis Chapman, and Todd Frazier are the only people who don’t need to leave Cincinnati on that logic. I see no reason as to why Upton would be received any better by fans.
It’s not the same thing, though, comparing Bruce to Wilson Valdez, just to pull a name out of the hat. No one really expects that much out of Zack Cozart. Etc. The level of disgust towards Jay Bruce exceeds any other player besides maybe Sean Marshall. You may well be right, that Upton will have just as many detractors. Certainly people would hate him here. Those who are clamoring for him haven’t seen him choke with RISP, etc. But a change of scenery might make him into a star here.
I just don’t think that long term it works when a fan base really dislikes a key player. We’ll see, I guess. I’m not even someone who hates Bruce at all. I just see him as a pretty good player who is at least somewhat likely to remain that way. If so, it simply will never be good enough for the fan base. Not even close. Add to that that Bruce looks like he’s not hustling (just in the way he moves around—note that I am not saying he does not hustle), it’s just not a good recipe. I’m not saying it’s rational.
This ‘level of disgust’ towards Jay Bruce has been demonstrated on many occasions towards many current Reds players – Homer Bailey (he has NEVER lived up to expectations of a #1 draft pick), Bronson Arroyo (he doesn’t throw hard enough to pitch well, 2011 proved his career was over), Drew Stubbs (manager needs to be fired for having him in the lineup), Scott Rolen (he’s disgracing himself by not retiring), Alfredo Simon (Reds gave a roster spot to somebody off the scrap heap?), Mat Latos (his wife had to cancel her Twitter account due to all the hate mail she was receiving after a bad start by her husband), and all of the utility players. I don’t think Zack Cozart or Sean Marshall face nearly the same level of disapproval – after all, one is a rookie and the other has been okay.
I don’t think it’s possible for this Reds team to put together a 25 man roster if fans need to like the players. What matters is winning games, and this team is in first place with ticket sales having gone up. Getting rid of key players because the fans are whining about them too much doesn’t make sense…
Again, none of the players outside of Latos, at this point, are expected to perform at a high level. and Latos is in year 1. Give it time—if he continues to have 2 more years like this one to date, I’ll bring it up again. Bruce has had 3 nearly identical years now, all of which are streaky, yet above-average RF years. He is worth the money they are paying him.
I don’t see my proposal as “getting rid” of Bruce, which I see as meaning dumping him. I suggested trading him for a coveted player who, at his peak, is a better player. He is less consistent, and I see them as roughly equivalent. It’s not like I said they should trade Bruce for a couple prospects. And, to not disrupt this year, they could do it in the offseason. I would think that many GMs would deal Bruce for Upton. My trade proposal is likely fantasy first and foremost because the Backs wouldn’t make it.
As an aside, I would expect that Homer Bailey has exceeded the performance of the average first round draft pick. Somehow, fans think 1st rounders must be all stars. It’s not so, I would bet. Someone must have studied the expected return of a 1st round pick.
@Racine Red: Red – I’m sorry this is delusional. Ever heard of a couple of guys named Rolen & Stubbs? Hell man, all in all Marshall is well thought of on this blog. Maybe not “Hall of Fame” well thought of, as you do, but well thought of none-the-less.
@RedLeg75: Agreed. But he’d have offered a, “You know, I’m just saying, NOT that everyone will see it this way, but, Bill Bray…”
This site is incredible yet very consistent. Yesterday, it was “who needs Votto?”. And I don’t mean the headline, I mean the comments. They might play .600 ball with Votto out. They’ll score more runs with Votto out. Etc.
Today, it’s the other way; how will the Reds play .500 ball with Votto out? And after 4 good starts, Latos has a really bad one, and now people are thinking he might have a bad month.
The consistency is the mood swings day to day.
In reality: (1) they should be able to weather the storm if Votto is out for 3-4 weeks, although it won’t be pleasant and they may well drop a few games to each of the teams behind them that matter and (2) people that say that the Reds win with pitching and defense, and so Votto’s loss is not that significant, are deluding themselves. The season won’t be over when Votto comes back. It just may be a lot harder.
Even with Votto in your lineup, you’re going to have a hard time winning when your pitching gives up 7 runs.
So… Yeah, Votto or no Votto, wouldn’t have made much difference.
You guys can start complaining about missing Votto when we start losing games by the score of 3-2 or something.
Joey Votto would have caught both those homeruns by Kubel and driven in 7 runs singlehandledly. DUH. No wonder you’re not the GM.
I think Stubbs reaching base at least twice for the third night in a row was a positive.
As far as Cozart bunting, I’m not sure what the problem is – that the #2 hitter was asked to bunt or that Cozart wasn’t able to pull it off? Or both? If the Reds had gotten a run in the inning would it have later been acceptable?
Bam, suddenly fan disapproval has turned towards Zack Cozart. Nobody is immune. Is it just what I’m observing or has fan perception of him changed remarkably quickly… even for Reds fans?
Hanigan vs Mesoraco, both have been assigned to work with starting pitchers (Arroyo and Cueto for Hanigan, Leake and Bailey for Mesoraco, Latos with both) and get playing time based on the rotation spot, not run production/hitting. That’s nothing new and I doubt that’s something that will change from slumps or hitting streaks. The Reds have made it clear that they value a catcher’s ability to call games well over the likelihood that he’ll get a big hit. Arroyo and Latos have both had disappointing starts this week but I really doubt Hanigan’s playing time will change as a result.
Joey Votto had been playing hurt and was in a slump, having trouble hitting or driving in runs with his injury on part of the West Coast and Cardinals series. The Reds won games with good pitching. The pitching isn’t perfect and the pitchers can still have bad games, as recently shown by Arroyo and Latos, but geez… it’s still a good pitching staff and it’s still capable of winning games with or without Joey Votto.
Probably both on Cozart. This team sure can’t bunt for a manager who loves to bunt. That said, I can’t believe you’d bunt your #2 hitter after a leadoff double in the first inning. And I do not think it would be acceptable if they scored the run, either, at least personally.
I don’t get the whole Cozart deal either. He’s played well in June and July, and terrible the past three games. It’s again the what have you done for me in the last game syndrome. That said, I haven’t ever liked the way he approaches at bats, from day 1. It is why I’ll be concerned all year that he’s going to end the year with a .600 OPS…because of the lack of discipline at the plate. Hopefully he’ll make .700.
On the idea that they won games on the West Coast while Votto was hurt with pitching, I really disagree with that. In their wins, they scored 5, 2, 8, 6, 6, 4. That is *excellent* output for those parks. In the Cards series, they scored 5, 3, 4. That’s pretty much near their season average. Of course they are capable of winning without Votto, but the point is that they will win fewer games without him—I guess I am taking a lot of the comments that I read as “Losing Votto is not really that big of a deal”, and I really do think it is, to this team. Fortunately, it’s only 3-4 weeks. If it’s the rest of the season, it’s bad, very bad.
More important than the number of runs the Reds scored while Votto struggled was how many runs did the pitching give up. I don’t care if they win 1-0 or win 8-0, it’s just a matter of whether or not they win. Losing Votto is definitely a big deal and makes it harder to win games but it hasn’t influenced the pitching staff’s ability to perform well or to keep the score low. I think a lot of fans are underrating the pitching staff.
@Racine Red: I have not seen this comment. Not once. I have seen numerous comments that the storm can be weathered and I have made a few of those myself. Is there not a difference? Maybe just a little if in nuance only? Please anyone, raise your hand if you think that “Losing Votto is not really that big of a deal”.
Some of you guys need to stay away from the sharp knives.
@redsfanman: You are correct sir. When “anyone” is stinking up the place, they get called on it. What else is new in the world?
As far as Bruce being “hated”? Really? Like Rolen hated? Drew Stubbs hated? Like Mat Latos hated? Like Logan Ondrusek hated? Like Dusty Baker hated?, Like Brook Jacoby hated? Like ______ hated? I see what you’re saying – if a guy is struggling and it is pointed out, trade him because the fan base “hates” him and he must be dealt for the good of the team? Man, that is a real knee-slapper. Can a ball-club be run like that and be successful?
Many of the posters mistake “hate” for disappointment and frustration. You have no idea, apparently, what real “hate” is like. I would suggest toning down the hyperbole otherwise the word “hate” loses it’s true meaning.
@Sultan of Swaff: After one good outing, too soon to switch Bray into a more critical role. Nice to see him pitch that way though, the only positive for tonite.
@Racine Red: Fans “can’t stand” Jay Bruce ? News to me. Commentators talk about his BARISP, some people here don’t like him, most just waffle according to how well he’s doing. Love him when he’s on a tear, get frustrated when he slumps.
He has fans here, I’m one.
I haven’t been to a game in Cincy for a while, but I imagine he gets among the loudest cheers when introduced. Is there any evidence that the average fan doesn’t like him ?
Maybe I’m giving too much credence to this site and Marty Brennamen. The problem is that I can’t exactly tell if fans are booing Bruce ever, because of, well, his name. You are right that “some” people here don’t like him. I’d say “some” is something like 75%, based on the comments I read.
My experience as a fairly long time Reds fan is that if Marty Brennamen rails about you on the radio, then you will not last that long as a Red.
@pinson343: A voice of reason in a sea of panic.
Kind of guy that you wouldn’t mind being a foxhole with.
Tomorrow Cairo and Valdez will be in the starting lineup. (Valdez is 3 for 9 against Saunders.) The sad thing is, I have to agree with starting both of them tomorrow. (Not because of the 3 for 9.)
Can someone enlighten me about all the hype about Xavier Paul? I admit to knowing next to nothing about the guy except looking up his horrid major league stats. Maybe there are mitigating circumstances?
Here’s typical Baker on Paul. The next two paragraphs are from the Enquirer.
“I liked him when he was with the Pirates,” Reds manager Dusty Baker said. “He was one of the best pinch-hitters around, especially against right-handers. He can play all three outfield positions. he gives us that much needed left-handed bat. He has speed, which we also need.”
Paul has actually struggled as a pinch-hitter. He’s hitting .119/.133/.220 in 61 pinch-hit plate appearances.
The Reds have wanted a left handed hitter on the bench all season – Xavier Paul has excellent minor league stats, including this season.
Apparently Xavier Paul went 2/11 with 0 walks and 6 strikeouts against the Reds.
Maybe saying “this guy is worthless, I don’t want him on my team” would have been a better way for Dusty to respond to the team’s roster decision.
I think the whole meme that Jay Bruce is loathed by the fan base is kinda nuts. WLW sports talk callers are not the average fan.
Jay’s made a couple errors and is in a recent funk. The errors thing is kinda new, but the funk at the plate has happened two or three times year since he came up.
Even if the guy just does what he has done in the past three years, JB is worth his cash. Of course he could turn into a super hero or Reggie Jackson or maybe he is just what he is (kinda say Pat Burrell). He’s decent either way.
WLW sports talk callers and disgruntled people who complain online are by far the most visible or recognizable fans. Saying controversial stuff to make people angry is part of how those radio broadcasters get listeners. I listen to those call-in shows when I drive just to hear what nonsense they come up with, and who they have to hate for what reason on what day.
The elephant in the room is Brook Jacoby.
Best line last night: After Xavier Paul popped out on the very first pitch he saw as a Red, Thom Brennaman says, “He’ll fit right in here.”
Evil Latos and Arroyo appeared on the mound these two games. Well, it is probably better to have it happened now than later. usually , these two will get better after a bad outing.
Stubbs is realizung that his days arre getting shorter, thus, he is coming out from the Funky mode. Noe, Cozart and Bruce need to wake up from their sweet dream. The Reds do not seem to take it seriously when they play with team below .500 and they get their butts kicked everytimes. Kansas City, Twins and you name them… these are games that the W need to be on the Reds side but instead they get LLLLL.
@RiverCity Redleg: What else is new, the dude wanted to show that he can do it. he might not be bad though but he is with the Reds so anything can happen! This is Basball!
Not to highlight the obvious but this team has won with pitching and defense. The offense, for the most part, hasn’t joined the party. If our starters beging to falter and the bullpen gets over-worked, we’re in trouble. Two out of the last three games qualifies. Fundamentally, we’re not very good. Thom Brennaman is spot on saying Xavier Paul swinging at the first pitch will “fit right in” plus this team can not get a bunt down. The season is half over and we still can’t execute. Red Flags. Top of the lineup still a major concern.
I’m just now getting around to reading this stuff, and like at least a fe3w other, I feel like I’ve stepped into the Twilight Zone:
“The level of disgust towards Jay Bruce exceeds any other player besides maybe Sean Marshall.”
Really? Where? I’m just totally not seeing either of these things. Marshall gets mostly support around here, and Bruce’s streakiness is frustrating, but I don’t see any great tidal wave of disgust or hatred that makes his presence here untenable. What the heck am I missing?
@RC: I don’t think you are missing anything . Folks just want this team to succeed badly and they become frustrated when our guys do not perform up to expectations .. I include myself in that group . Game time is 12:35 today. The team will show up to play. Let’s hope for better results today!
Zack Cozart hit .270-.275 in the minor leagues. He may simply be a .250 hitter in the majors. I’ll take that from a sure-handed shortstop, especially when he has some pop in his bat. But I don’t want him hitting first or second in the lineup.
He has also never had a very high walk-rate. It’s extra low now because he’s a rookie and still building his confidence to let the counts get deeper on average.
My discouragement with his bunting in the first inning had nothing to do with him. It was that we called on our #2 hitter to give up his out to move the fastest runner on our team from second to third base in a game we were already behind 2-0. That’s just utter madness in managing.
@Steve Mancuso: I’m one of the few that condones a certain amount of sacrificing (bunting) from the regulars but last night’s was indefensible. I hope that didn’t come from the dugout but rather Zack on his own. He is a rookie and entitled to make more than his fair share of hiccups.
As far as batting second, I agree. Last night’s first inning was a perfect example of Hanigan being the man for that spot. Yeah, he runs like he is killing worms but he is smart/savvy and can handle the bat. Wish to God that Dusty would give him that opportunity. With Votto out, every little thing matters even more than with Votto in there. The players “and” on-field management are going to need to step up.
@littleleo1:
It’s not that I agree or disagree with criticism of Bruce. It’s just that someone up there indicated that the relationship between him and the “fans” has deteriorated to the point where he’d be better off elsewhere.
I have seen or heard ZERO indication of that, and have no idea where that idea would have come from. I await enlightenment…
@RC: Yep – Jay is probably never going to be a Ted Williams but he is alright the way he is. Do we wish for better? Of course but with streaky players there are going to be times when we grouch at him. This is one of those times. That doesn’t mean we want him hung or traded. He is who he is. Can he get better and less streaky? It’s possible but I would look for incremental improvement not a “flash of light” difference.
With Jay and Drew I hope against hope that they will have a Cueto-revelation and bust-out. Cueto was serviceable, at best, before he changed his wind-up to the Tiant-style and now he is one of the best. It is very hard in general, but with ballplayers in particular, to learn new tricks. For either Bruce or Stubbs to really take-off, a change in philosophy will likely have to occur. I’m seeing some signs with Drew and I am somewhat optimistic. Johnny Cueto has a lot of fortitude and drive just like Votto so it’s no wonder their at the head of their class. Guys, like that, that find a way to be as successful as they can be. Everyone would like to be the best they can be but few are willing to do what it takes. I don’t fault those that don’t because the vast majority are more like Stubbs & Bruce than Cueto & Votto.