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Let’s recap tonight’s titanic struggle….
FINAL
St. Louis 2
Cincinnati 4
W: H. Bailey (8-6)
L: J. Westbrook (7-8)
S: A. Chapman (13)
BOX SCORE
POSITIVES
–Six straight wins!
–Homer Bailey with an excellent outing tonight, allowing one earned run in eight innings pitched. In the eighth, Bailey allowed the first two runners to reach before escaping from the jam in exciting fashion. Good stuff, especially since Bailey was essentially making an emergency start, after Johnny Cueto’s blister kept him from pitching.
–Aroldis Chapman finished up the win by striking out the side in the ninth inning. The ballpark was nothing short of electric at that point. Fun.
–Scott Rolen had the big hit, a two-run single in the eighth inning that gave the Reds their winning margin. Nice to see Rolen come through in a clutch situation, after all his recent struggles.
–Chris Heisey went 3-4 and scored a run. Joey Votto had a double, a single, a walk, two runs scored and an RBI. He’s good.
NEGATIVES
–None.
NOT-SO-RANDOM THOUGHTS
–Good grief, that was fun. A sellout crowd, ESPN national broadcast, and the Reds get an exciting win to secure a sweep of the hated St. Louis Cardinals. Doesn’t get much better than that.
–The Reds are now 12 games over .500, a season-high. Even better, Pittsburgh lost, so the Reds are alone in first place again. Good times.
–Homer Bailey’s ERA is now 3.93. He keeps getting better, friends and neighbors.
–I should probably have put this under “positives,” but the Cardinals are now 4.5 games out of first.
–This:
NOW I’m excited about this #Reds team. Best moment since the division clincher in 2010.
— Chris Garber (@cgarber8) July 16, 2012
Reds are alone in first place. All is right with the world.
— Chad Dotson (@dotsonc) July 16, 2012
–The next 17 games (and 24 of the next 27) are against sub-.500 teams. If the Reds are going to pull away from the pack, the time is now.
Source: FanGraphs
Homer Bailey was the dude in the 8th. Considering how often he would crack earlier in his career, it was cool to see him just lock down and take them out. Reds starters and relievers keep this up, they are going to be rough in a short series.
@earl:
Homer did a great job in the 8th, but IMO, he shouldn’t have been out there. Once Halliday got the hit, I’d have pulled him. Just b/c it worked out, doesn’t make it the right move. I think Dusty got away with one…
I agree. If you were watching the game, Dusty did say he was trying to “save” the bullpen so it was no surprise that he was left in.
I have to agree. I do believe it was a decision that could have gone either way. I probably would have pulled him. That probably would have been more “by the book” decision. But, I don’t think entirely.
My heart can’t take too many innings like the 9th tonight.
Oops. I meant the 8th.
Let’s remember to welcome MVottoP! back to the land of the living tonite.
Two on, heart of the line up, no one out. Guess it’s time for Homer Bailey to just wreck up some hated Cards.
Yep, best crowd since the division clincher. For marketing purposes, those visuals are worth more than 10 winter caravans put together!
@Sultan of Swaff: Agreed. I was at the game last night and what a great atmosphere!
We are averaging @3k higher attendance/ game. We are likely to get to 4k/ game.
4k X 81 = 324,000. 324,000 X $20.00 = $6,480,000 increased ticket revenue.
Revenue from sales of food, souveneirs, drinks and miscellaneous is increasing correspondingly, at least.
The Reds are already enjoying increased radio (big time) and tv ( little time now, more 2 years from now).
I don’t know if there will be any luxury tax income.
There will maybe be some post season income.
This brings up the question: is this enough?
Also, remember, with all due respect to Rolen, I don’t think he comes back/we bring him back. At least not at his price. It will have to be a substantially discounted price. That would open up some room, also, to bring someone in after the season (or maybe before the end; if the money isn’t there right at this moment, it would have to be considered an investment, seeing what your return would be).
I’m pretty confident in saying there is no way Rolen will be a Red in 2013. I suspect he will in fact retire. And the Reds can’t possibly block Frazier for another year. And they have payroll issues.
Awesome game. No one can really complain. I was watching something else at the same time as the game, so, I did miss tidbits, but it didn’t seem like much if anything else we could have done.
Everyone might have their, “I still think. . .” and “I would have liked to have seen. . .”. I have my own. I still think Frazier should be the regular 3rd baseman over Rolen, period. But, it was great to see Rolen catch up with that fastball. After letting Homer finish the 8th, then getting a 2 run lead, I would have liked to see Homer get a chance to finish it against the lower end of their order, at least giving him a short leash.
But, all of that is just preferences, just like anyone would have. I can’t see anyone having anything negative to say. Well done guys!!! Keep it up!!!
Well, that didn’t suck.
Hard to describe how exciting it was being at the game. The crowd was really into supporting Homer and Chapman in the ninth. I was there with a friend who is a serious Cardinals fan (Freese jersey, I stipulated no Carpenter or Molina). He clapped for Rolen all game, who was one of his two favorite Cardinals, even after the GW hit.
I’ve never seen so many brooms. The Reds management did a great job with the scoreboard camera cutting away to all the brooms during the break between the eighth and ninth and then all during the ninth.
I’m thrilled for Rolen that he got such an important hit in such an improbable situation. I have to admit, I wished Baker had pinch hit for him. Whether Rolen deserves to play or not, whether he should have been in the game then trying to hit an 97 mph fastball or not, he nonetheless got the hit and we need to relish that.
I also have to confess I thought that Baker should have brought someone else in to pitch to Molina in the eighth inning. Yet, I’m ecstatic that Homer did so well in a big situation.
One other positive: Paul Janish started a major league baseball game tonight for the Atlanta Braves. He got on base one out of four times (walk) and scored a run. No errors at SS, of course. How great would it be if he could make the playoffs with the Braves.
Agreed, Steve, on everything. I was watching something else at the same time as the game. So, I couldn’t quite tell how Homer looked all game. It didn’t seem he was doing too bad. So, when it came to the 8th, I could really see either way, letting him finish it or pulling him. After he got out of the 8th, and, then we got the 2 run lead, I would have liked to see Homer finsh it all against the bottom of their order, at least on a short leash. Even though I still feel Frazier should be playing 3rd regular, it was great to see Scotty catch up to that fastball. Just an overall good game. One we would lose before, like the first couple. But, not these.
Interesting Janish, who spent the season in AAA because he can’t hit MLB pitching, has almost the same career MLB OBP as Zack Cozart. I hope the pitcher they got in return does well.
I’m not nearly as high on Cozart as most here, but you do realize that the difference is that Janish has no pop in his bat and Cozart does have some, right?
I agree that Cozart is definitely a better power hitter but at the same time he’s not been significantly more successful at reaching base than Janish. I just think it’s worth recognizing that Cozart gets way too much attention for overrated hitting (or else Janish didn’t get enough credit for his offense).
Cozart is slumpint a little right now, but he’s had an OPS of right around .700 all year, which is right around big league average.
Janish had an OPS of .520 last year, and has a career .590 OPS in the big leagues.
So I have to disagree, Cozart is just a better hitter all around than Janish, who is pretty terrible. Plus Cozart is younger and clearly has more upside. This definitely won’t be Cozart’s best season at the plate, and it’s already a big improvement over Janish.
That said, it’s insane that he’s been leading off for so long, as has been noted many times.
His OPS is higher because Cozart hits more doubles and homeruns but he doesn’t do much better as far as reaching base. ‘This definitely won’t be Cozart’s best season at the plate’? You don’t know that… check out Heisey, his best skill (homerun power) vanished in the offseason. Cozart being young doesn’t mean that his numbers can only get better.
Nobody wants Cozart leading off. Even Janish didn’t spend much time in the 2 hole except for a some “get ‘em going” moments. But hitting more doubles and HR’s makes him a much better hitter than Janish. Nobody can argue that Cozart’s OBP is good, but those other things matter. And, it’s important to remember… that compared to Janish, Renteria, etc… league average looks pretty darn nice.
@Matt WI:
This ^. It is so nice to not have Renteria on this team. And, didn’t Cozart set some rookie record for doubles by All Star break? He plays hard and I’m glad he’s a Red regardless of where he hits in the lineup.
Janish had an OBP of 2.59 last year, so Janish at .290 is 31 points better. That’s about the same difference as between Phillips and Mesoraco. It’s not huge, but it’s there.
Then add to that that he hits with better power, and for a higher average, and I don’t really know why you’re arguing this…
Steve
There are not many players who will be cheaper, or, like Rolen, cheaper to replace.
Take a look at arbitration elIgible Reds for 2013
http://www.iviewtube.com/v/155596/umpire-jim-joyce-blown-call-ruins-armando-galarraga-perfect-game-video
Umm, Frazier? He should be the regular 3rd baseman now. Rolen’s spot would go to a bench player. Then, use Rolen’s money to help fill another need.
Whoops! Wrong link.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/05/2013-contract-issues-cincinnati-reds.html
Despite his dominance, Chapman is making me nervous. The majority of strikes tonight, as often seems to be the case, were the result of swinging at pitches out of zone. I know this will happen a lot with a guy who throws so hard because hitters have to start their swings early, but eventually a team might decide not to swing at anything, and I’m nervous about how that’s going to work out. And if it works out badly in one game, I’m afraid we’ll see it again and again. Thrilled with the results so far, but still nervous.
It is always interesting to me that announcers/analysts/fans will say a pitch was a good pitch on 3-2 if the guy swings at it and it’s out of the zone. To me, unless the pitch is just very slightly out of the zone, it’s typically not a good pitch when you would have walked the guy (obviously, there are circumstances where it’s what you want to do because you don’t care if you walk the batter).
I wasn’t so worried with Chapman’s next couple of batters, as they whiffed on pitcher’s counts. He also threw a slider and a change, which is a good sign.
@zippy: I thought the same thing. “Wiley veteran Furcal” held off the high pitch, but fortunately for the Reds, it actually was at the top of the zone for a called strike. That pitch alone could have turned that at bat very differently, as I don’t think he swings at anything else that looks above the belt. He’s got to clip the top of the zone more often, or players will not swing at anything up. Without that pitch, he’s in trouble.
Overall, outstanding work by the good guys. Nice to see we are not fading away into the sunset.
The Reds bullpen, if my math is right, is on pace for only 414 innings this year. It’s not easy to compute what they had last year, but I think it was near 500 innings.
Dusty gave Homer a chance in the eighth and it worked. I think I would have preferred a pitching change after the first two batters reached in the eighth, but Homer made Dusty’s decision look good. Anybody who wasn’t impressed with Homer early in the year, that would include me, is obviously seeing things in a whole new light these last several weeks.
There was no part of me that wanted Homer out there in the ninth inning, though. Maybe he would have closed it out, but if Chapman is physically capable of going on a third straight day, he’s got my vote, especially against the bottom of the lineup. Nice to see him throw a few pitches that weren’t just fastballs, too.
Had no expectation that Rolen would produce in that situation, and frankly still think it should be Frazier getting those at-bats. But what a time to come through! Nice job, Scottie.
Interesting question: in a playoff series you need only 3-4 starters. As of right now, who are you moving? Cueto isn’t going anywhere, arroyo brings the only real veteranyness and has te most big-game experience of any pitcher(with sox) latos has big time, make-a-short-series-even-shorter stuff, leake has pitched well, and Bailey is having a good year and takes forever to warm up.
Cueto-Arroyo-Latos
Then next year’s palyoffs:
Cueto-Chapman-Latos
Very interesting. I think, with what we have, and “thinking” I know Dusty, it will come down to who we play and where. For instance, for the playoffs, I can’t see Latos nor Arroyo pitching here. But, if we get SF, for instance, I can see Latos and Arroyo there. Or, if the opponent’s batting order is heavily left handed, you may not see Arroyo in there. Also, Baker will probably look to go with his “mix up” theory, which I could understand up to a point. “Mix it up” as long as they are good pitchers, pitchers going good, not just because they are different pitchers. I’d rather have 3 similar pitchers in there who are all going good than, for example, throw in a soft tosser like Arroyo just because he is a soft tosser. Vice versa, as well.
As of now, not knowing any of this, I would have to go with Cueto, Latos, and Bailey, with Leake just being beaten out. But, also, with pitchers like Leake and Arroyo on the outside of that, I believe we would be fortunate to be able to have the starters on a short leash and still being in some good long men.
I think we’re a long way from the playoffs. It’s July.
That said, if they do make it, there is no way in hell that Latos isn’t going to be pitching.
But, we don’t want to be waiting to win it on the last day, either. Our last 6 games are on the road. We want to win clinch it here, the sooner the better. The only way that can happen is by winning now, not till September.
Ideally, this is what should happen with the Reds and their contracts this offseason:
Eligible For Free Agency (2)
Scott Rolen – Rolen, now on the disabled list with a strained shoulder, could be replaced by Todd Frazier in 2012. Frazier is 11 years younger than Rolen and considerably more affordable.
Miguel Cairo – Cairo, 38, contributed at three positions and posted a .742 OPS in 102 games last year. He’s off to a slow start in 2012, and will probably be looking at a minor league deal next offseason.
Contract Options (2)
Ryan Madson: $11MM mutual option with a $2.5MM buyout. As MLBTR’s Dan Mennella recently explained, it’s safe to expect the Reds to decline their side of this option. It’d be a lot of money for a player recovering from Tommy John surgery on a team with alternatives in the bullpen.
Ryan Ludwick: $5MM mutual option with a $500K buyout. Ludwick hasn’t done much at the plate this year; it’s hard to imagine the Reds exercising their side of the option.
Arbitration Eligible (10)
First time: Mat Latos, Drew Stubbs, Mike Leake, Chris Heisey, Logan Ondrusek, Alfredo Simon
Second time: Homer Bailey, Wilson Valdez, Paul Janish
Third time: Bill Bray
Rolen: Hope he does the right thing and retires.
Cairo: Offer him a minor league deal, if he declines, adios.
Madson: Buy him out and try to bring him back at a reduced price, but not a high priority. If he won’t take 3 years, 9 million, let him go.
Ludwick: He hasn’t been horrible, honestly. 5 million is too much, but it might be worth it, depending on what happens with trades. I’d buy him out and try to bring him back for 3 million.
Latos: 5 years, 20 million. (roughly)
Leake: 5 years, 20 million. (roughly)
Stubs: Hope he gets traded at the deadline as part of a package for Span or Upton.
Heisey: 3 years, 7 million.
Ondrusek: 1 year, 1.2 million
Simon: 1 year, 1.5 million
Bailey: 3 years, 15 million
Valdez: See ya!
Janish: Already gone
Bray: Hm….
I agree with this, but I would like to see the bullpen locked up for more than another year.
I think we could get a discount if we gave Ondrusek and Simon a two year deal.
I think Bray and Madson need to go…Donnie Joseph and JJ Hoover will be much cheaper and will allow us to extend our SP staff for longer.
I do think Joseph and Hoover would work, also. Agree with a lot of it. It is going to be an interesting off season, again. Like, I could see Leake and Bailey getting something like that. But, then, putting that much money into who some consider your 4th and 5th starters? Not sure if Valdez is gone. I would like to see how HRod and Didi do at AAA first. For, if they can play multiple positions, they may be in there. But, then, how good would it be for them to ride the bench here. I can see saying by to Valdez, but then we will have another need to fill, especially if Cairo goes, also.
Can’t believe nobody mentioned Chris Heisey. Only 3 for 4 with a run scored. Oh yeah, in place of Drew Stubbs, batting 2nd. However, I’m sure Heisey’s performance wasn’t good enough and we’ll see Stubbs in their tonight. Any takers? Cozart’s average falling fast. Now .244. Must address the top of the order before I’ll believe in this team. We’re winning because of pitching and defense.
Finally, we won six in a row back in May then went 6 & 8. We won six in row in June then went 6 & 11. We currently have a “six” game winning streak.
It’s fairly obvious to me who the best “overall” outfield is, Bruce, Heisey, and Ludwick. Even with Heisey’s power numbers down, I honestly believe and see a better hitter. Except for his power numbers, most everything is on pace to wipe out his numbers last year. Especially 2-3 biggest marks on him the last two years, he’s hitting breaking balls better, he’s hitting lefties better, and he’s striking out less. With only his power numbers down, it tells me he’s simply working on other things this year. He may not have Stubbs speed; I will say that may give Stubbs the edge in the field, but not by much. Heisey definitely doesn’t play bad defense.
Let’s just see if Baker can see past Stubbs speed and see who the better player is. Some like to talk about Stubbs talent. Sorry, I don’t see it. All I still see is speed and a pretty good arm. I will say I see potential. Talent to me is “developed potential”. Like with Gomes “having a bat that can carry a team”. Why? Because he can hit a home run? Until he shows it consistently, that’s a player who’s just been in the zone for a while. A player with a bat that can carry a team lives in that zone. Stubbs will be in the zone for about a week, then tanks it. That has been his trend. His swing looked good. But, I was always told I had a gold swing like Jack Nicklaus. I still hit the golf ball like Steve S. A good looking swing means little if you don’t get hits.
@steveschoen:
You’re right. He has short periods of seeing the ball really well and hitting the ball hard, then he goes back to horrible for extended periods. I can see wanting him to play CF, but he should be batting 8th. Maybe he gets pitched around more down there with the pitcher next and actually gets on base. Heisey is probably a below average CF when you compare him to the others in the league. They need another solution out there. It’s simply awful that Baker keeps batting Stubbs 2nd just because he’s fast.
The best overall outfield isn’t obvious since there is so much disagreement. Heisey is a worse fielder, a slower runner, and tends to walk less. In the infield Rolen has the appeal of being the best defender at his position, which is a big part of why he gets playing time.
Have the Reds been trying to build a winning team by scoring lots or runs with big bats? Or focusing on pitching, speed, and defense? In the past year they’ve traded Alonso, Francisco, and Grandal – all potentially good hitters but sub-standard fielders, for pitching help. Stubbs speed and defense fits much better with the Reds’ philosophy and goals than Heisey.
@sezwhom1:
They’re all line drives in the boxscore …
Don’t know if you watched the game, but 2 of those 3 hits were grounders off the pitchers’ ankles. Hits nonetheless, but he is hardly “driving” the ball. Not convinced that Heisey or Stubbs are the answer in the outfield.
Gotta wonder if management is holding off on moving Billy Hamilton to the outfield, because they want to cement his progress at the plate first.
I’m not generally a believer in using small sample size stats of batter vs pitcher (though there is some evidence it’s not a bad idea), but when a guy is 3-8 with 3 jacks against a pitcher, he’s starting if I’m managing.
I agree that the answer would be someone else, but I’m just not that impressed with the guys on the trade market to play CF and bat leadoff.
Huzzah for the Reds! Now, let’ s show those Arizonites some heapin’ helpings of the NEW Cincy 3-way*!
* Gold Glove defense, clutch hitting, and dominating pitching!
I said it in the game thread but I think it deserves repeating. 6th inning, Brandon Phillips makes a web gem to turn a double play on a Berkman ground ball. It wasn’t a between-the-legs or off -the-seat-of-his-pants BP play, but it was still a play that maybe 1 or 2 other 2nd basemen in the game could make. The next batter is Yadier Molina who promptly jacks a pretty good slider out of the zone into the left field stands for a solo HR. Without the defensive play, that’s a 3-run homer and the Reds (potentially) lose the game. One play that goes down in the box score and every saber metric as just another double play. This is why defensive metrics can’t measure how much BP means to this team. As far as I’m concerned, BP gets an extra WAR for last night that will never go on his stat sheet and does anyone doubt that there aren’t another 2-3 games over the course of a season where the same thing happens?
@eric nyc:
Agree that the double play was big, but I don’t think you can necessarily say he hits a 3-run homer. I guess it depends on what the alternative was to the DP. First base could have been open to walk Molina who was already 3 for 3, and he doesn’t necessarily get the same pitch he hit for a homer if the base situation is different.
Fair enough, but Molina was swinging for the fences on everything the entire series and, if anything, Bailey was being careful with him even with the bases empty/ The pitch he hit was a really good breaking ball down at his ankles. Obviously you can always say things could happen one way or another and it’s all conjecture, but my bigger point is that it’s hard to put a proper value in terms of WAR on Brandon’s defense and this was a good example.
@eric nyc: Yes, it was a very, very fine play. I think that a handful of other 2B would have gotten to it, even shading up the middle for the DP as Phillips was. That said, I don’t think but 1 or 2 other 2B would have turned it into a DP. They probably would have gone for the out at 1B. Thus Molina’s HR would have been a 2-run jack.
Phillips is two different guys in the field. On some plays, in my mind he uses unnecessary flair and everyone (apparently except me) loves it. An example is the play that ended the 6th on Saturday, which was IMO not a difficult play to get to it, and he most certainly didn’t need to flip behind the back like he did. On others, like the one last night, he makes brilliant plays. That was a really difficult play, as you say, not to get to it, but to get to it and make that throw to 2nd. He’s not the only one who makes that play, but there aren’t more than a couple, I’d estimate.
I will give credit to Dustman for changing a little here and there. No Stubbs has helped last night. Stubbs most likely to beat the balls to the ground and DP or strikeout with sinkers in the dirt from Westbrook. HI-Z got 3 hits! and he will sit down tonight , if Dustman does this then he is in my negative ccolumn again. Stubbs’s day seems to be shorter and shorter if he doesn’t wake up and be smarter to use his tools in hitting and bunting. He needs to learn how to use his speed to creat confusion and makes it hard for the defense. however, he thinks that CF is his job to keep , thus, he seems to not care about his offense output. He probably thinks that being a good defensive player will get him a long way in the major. Stubbs should be used in: sub in late inning, when the game is a blow out – either way W o L. As a Starter only once a week….etc. Pinch run or pinch hit etc. He should not hit at second or should be a starter any more.
Entirely agree, except one thing. Stubbs has no batting tools I can tell. His speed can be useful. But, when 2 of the 3 offensive tools require getting hits, and those are prereqs for using the 3rd tool, I see no tools Stubbs has offensively. Like I said before, I do believe Heisey is the better batter. That is obvious. Is Heisey an All-Star? Not by a long shot. But, then, that goes to show how far down Stubbs is for that. People like to talk of Heisey as being a 4th OF. Then, Stubbs is no better than a 5th OF. With the exception of Heisey’s power numbers, I see Heisey having grown into a better batter this year with improvement practically across the board. Meanwhile, Stubbs gets worse each season. Some like to tout Stubbs 2 hole numbers this year. Take out his first 8 games in the 2 hole, his numbers drop off the cliff, again. That’s been his trend, after a small change, like a day rest or a change in the batting order, Stubbs excels for maybe a week, then tanks again. I can only think Baker is thinking, “Stubbie is due for a big run. I can feel it.”
Saw this on Lance McAlister’s blog today:
Starting pitchers vs #1 offense in NL/at GABP: 7 runs, 6 earned, in three games.
The Reds swept the Cards without Cueto pitching, with Latos starting (1-3 11.37 career vs Cards) and with Bailey owning the worst home ERA in MLB)
Read more: http://www.espn1530.com/pages/lancesBlog.html#ixzz20nRjzagk
Video of Billy Hamilton’s inside the parker:
http://deadspin.com/5926272/reds-prospect-billy-hamiltons-legend-continued-after-hitting-this-inside+the+park-homer
Rounded the bases in under 14 seconds. I read somewhere there were some rumblings he could be called up in September purely as a pinch runner. Don’t see why not. It’s not like there’s anyone else in Louisville we’re dying to get up here when rosters expand. Can’t wait to watch this guy play regularly.
He’s not on the 40….
If Hamilton’s not on the big league roster in September and then, if the Reds make the postseason, on that roster too, I’m going to hack into Walt Jocketty’s computer and put him on it. He will hit no worse than whoever the 25th guy would be, and he will fulfill at least the Dave Roberts 2004 Red Sox role. I don’t give a rat’s you know what about the 40 man roster. Wave bye bye to the 40th man.
@earmbrister: Why would moving BH to the outfield hurt his progress at the plate at all? By all accounts he’s a pretty abysmal SS and that’s not keeping him out of the lineup anywhere.
@eric nyc:
I only know what I’ve read. And I’ve never read that Hamilton is “a pretty abysmal SS”. What I have read is that he may get tagged with more errors than other shortstops due to his extraordinary range. And that long-term, the emergence of Didi Gregorius (who is an amazing SS in the field) may force Hamilton and/or Cozart to move to 2B or the OF.
As to whether a positional move would hurt his progress at the plate is debatable. It would depend on the emotional makeup of the player, as well as what kind of success he would have at his new position. If he’s played SS all of his life, a switch to the OF may very well affect him at the plate (particularly if he struggles in the field). It would hardly be a slam dunk kind of move.
Well, all that might be true in a vacuum, but no one’s moving to 2B. Phillips has a 5 year contract.
From experience I know that he’ll be booed off the field by fans if he has lots of fielding errors and he’d have to hit much better just to overcome the resulting fan dissatisfaction. Todd Frazier has been able to hit well enough to make his fielding go unnoticed but I’m not sure Hamilton can do the same.
I get the impression that the plan is to convert him to the outfield in a winter league, but we’ll see.
@eric nyc: Very sound thinking.
Worst case if we have to struggle for the next year or possibly two with a Stubbs/Heisey combo in CF, Hamilton could be the light, at the end, of that dark tunnel. I think Cozart can and will handle SS for awhile and they seem to be set at all the other positions except LF – especially in the long-term. Grooming Hamilton for CF makes a lot of sense to this fan.
@eric nyc: Because learning a new position is always tough. Plus the extra work in the field can sometimes take away from extra work in the cage. There’s only so much work a player can put in before it becomes counter-productive.
Just wanted to add: It was nice to see the Cards be the team to make a few mistakes here and there and fail to execute. Seems like it’s always gone the other way in these close games with them over the last two years.
At this point, with the Reds in the lead, having one of the top 10 records in baseball and being 12 games over .500 I think we need to come to grips that dusty isn’t as bad as some think, and there is a very good chance he will be back next year, so lets just enjoy this season…
Another quick note on BP: They said on the broadcast last night that since the advent of the Web Gem in 2007, Phillips has had 40 (FORTY!) of them which is by far the record. As silly as it sounds, in some ways I think that might actually be one of the most telling stats about his defense.
A few quick observations from the game…
I questioned Baker letting Homer bat in the bottom of the 7th. I thought he should have been pulled. Homer got a hit. When he allowed the 2 hits to lead off the 8th, I was sure that Dusty was a fool (a fool I say!!) … I was shocked he was still in there against Molina who was 3-3 with a double and a HR against him…. Then Homer pitched out of it and Baker’s move worked out. Some will say “blind squirrel getting a nut” but I think it’s more a manager showing confidence in a still developing starting pitcher. A move like that may pay off in a big way as far as Homer’s development.
Cozart’s play on the soft liner in the first was exceptional. The defense was a little mixed with Bruce misplaying a ball of the wall that could have held the runner to a single. Then there was Votto’s error. Bruce redeemed himself with a great break on his diving catch on the flyball to RF. It was a fine, fine play. The double-play that BP started on the groundball in the hole was very, very sweet to see in person. A lot of 2B wouldn’t have gotten to it or would have only been able to get the out at 1B. BP’s play was exceptional.
It is very fun to boo Molina.
Bingo was his name-o. Spot on dude!
@eric nyc: Web Gems are basically just something some plays some guys in a studio think are cool. Anytime you’re basing an idea on something that ESPN uses to draw in viewers, you’re on shaky ground.
@Matt WI: ooops. Delete “just something” from that sentence.
@Matt WI: I prefaced it by acknowledging how silly it sounds, but we talk about this all the time. There’s really no defensive metric to properly value plays that one player can make that most others can’t. Yes, “Web Gems” are the product of a bunch of guys trying to get hits on their site, but they also mean that the guy has made a spectacular play and one that, likely, not many other people could have made. Do it a handful of times and you’re just a big league player. it happens. Do it week in and week out for 5+ years and you have to start giving some credit. I just thought it was an interesting factoid. Not suggesting Fangraphs starts tracking it.
@earmbrister: I guess I’m only going by the error numbers, and maybe you’re right that’s not a perfect way to evaluate him. But I’ve certainly never heard anything but negatives about his defense at SS, hence the constant talk about moving him to the OF. With his speed it seems like a no brainer, and the one good thing I have heard about him is that he has a decent arm. So CF seems to make perfect sense.
@eric nyc:
What I’ve read about Billy H. is that he has outstanding range (go figure), a plus arm, and above average instincts. My take is that we hear talk about them moving him to the OF, because of the log jam ahead of him (Cozart, Phillips, Gregorius). I’m all for moving him to the OF, by the way.
My point was, “perhaps” they are waiting on the move due to his progress at the plate. If memory serves, Hamilton got off to a slow start last year. And again, based on memory, didn’t he start switch hitting only a year or so ago? If the concern is whether he has proven that he is a legitimate upper minors hitter, throwing a positional change at him at this moment might not be the best course of action.
If hitting a baseball is one of the toughest things to do in all of sports, you don’t want him worrying about fielding a brand new position at the same time his is trying to learn to hit advanced pitching. As a golfer, you don’t want to be thinking about a bunch of extraneous stuff, and choking the crap out of the club. You want to swing with an “empty” mind.
Based on that premise, I’d think that I would be a much better golfer …
@earmbrister: Plus, if I’m Billy Hamilton I’m looking at a big league infield that is set for at least the next 2-3 years. Frazier is clearly the heir apparent at 3B, Cozart is 23 and looks to have that job locked up (especially if we can get him down in the order where he belongs), and then there’s BP and Joey case closed. He knows the only real way he’s making it anytime soon is in the OF so if anything I’d think moving him there would actually give him MORE confidence because it would be a clear sign the organization wants him on the big club sooner than later.
I have now recovered enough from the game for a few observations. Brandon Phillips won this game with his defensive get & throw on the double play.
Rolen has put the bat on the ball in the past two games, but most of the hits he had were seeing eye rollers through the infield. The hit to win this game was solid, very clutch. Kudos Scotty, you are a competitor and you handle yourself with class.
As much grief as Stubbs has been getting, I disagree that he is not trying. If anything he is trying too hard. He has adjusted his plate approach a lot to try and hit more ground balls and line drives rather than fly balls. He is just not having any success and I really think he needs time to step back, take a deep breath and regather himself. I don’t think he can do this on the major league roster. Stubbs won’t like it, but a trip to AAA would probably do him more good than anything else. Let him play every day without the pressure to produce every time and get his head straight. Make it clear that he will be in AAA until the September callups (or maybe just before) so he can really let go of the pressure and also make sure he understands that he will be back and is still in the Reds long-term plans for success.
C’mon Uncle Walt, get the Reds that LH bat they need on the bench. Maybe its Paul (we’ve tried everyone else, why not him) or maybe we have to continue to beat the bushes, but an effective LH bat on the bench is becoming absolutely critical.
Another 6 game winning streak and now 12 games over .500 after a HUGE win could be the springboard to a serious run wher the Reds bury the central division and relegate everyone else to competing for a wildcard slot.
There was a comment made during the game about a meeting in the tunnel between the players from both teams where the players agreed to play the game on the field and let go of all the nonsense. Such actions are indicative of real leadership and professionalism on both teams. The other aspect of that comment that I found most interesting and telling was that Matheny and the St. Louis coaches were aware of the meeting but Baker and the Cincinnati coaches were not aware of the meeting.
FWIW, John Fay denied this happened…on twitter.
@CharlotteNCRedsFan: Thanks CharlotteNCRedsFan
@sezwhom1: Sezwhom- I did mention HI-Z – he got three hits and one of which which helped the Reds started a rally with two outs!. He should be getting at least 60% of the time and Stubbs may be 20% and Valdez 20%. They need to keep Valdez sharp also , he still is a better bunter and has some experience in the playoff which has more pressure than the regular season. Some said to DFA valdez , I don’t think he is that bad. Mr Harris was worst!
And any talk of Cozart in the OF is silly, he simply doesn’t have enough of a bat to play the OF.
I disagree. Now if he is surrounded by light hitting players, that is one thing, but if we have a solid hitting LF to compliment him, it is not a problem. Especially when we have good power at the middle infield positions.
Take Brett Gardner, as an example. He has more pop than Hamilton, but not much more.
Whoops, nevermind. I read that as Hamilton to the outfield.
I agree, re: Cozart. He is not moving.
I’m not sure the “light hitting” even applies to Hamilton anyways. I mean, he might be. But, if he is stealing bases like crazy, then when you add the speed in, a single’s almost a double. I’m almost never a huge fan of speed, but this kind of speed is just very rare.
It is going to be fascinating seeing how this guy does in the majors, eventually.
Did I read right that Joey Gaithright in Lousville was released?
He opted out of his contract, like Jeff Francis, once he realized that he wasn’t being promoted. The Reds signed the Xavier Paul to replace him.
Interesting article today at si.com about the emergence of stars and production out of the CF position across MLB. Stubbs wasn’t mentioned. Snub!
@Racine Red: Cozart is batting almost .250 as a leadoff hitter while playing plus-defense. I don’t know why anyone should have ever expected any better out of his rookie year. His defense is barely a fall-off from Janish at all and I think most of us would have been plenty happy with Janish hitting .250. I think once we get him out of the leadoff spot (where he might thrive eventually, but it’s too much pressure for a rookie) he could end up as a .270+ hitter. That’s an All-Star.
I am not expecting anything better. All I said is that I’m not as high on the guy as most here—as in long term. I can’t get past the fact that he’s just so wild of a swinger. I look at his stats and watch the guy. There’s nothing in Cozart’s background that suggests all star. He’s definitely better than Janish overall.
I didn’t expect Cozart to do better than this (let alone the ~.320+ that some fans expected him to repeat) but I think some fans perceive him as having hit better than he actually has. We like him because he’s a young prospect… but if identical numbers came from a utility player – say Paul Janish, it’d be unacceptable. Fans have given up on Stubbs since he can’t reach base despite Cozart being much more successful. It’s just weird.
As far as hitting leadoff, I just don’t think Cozart demonstrates many, if any, of the skills required of a good leadoff hitter. Once he’s out of the job I think he’s finished with that role for good. He’s best suited for a #7 or #8 hitter. More and more Cozart looks to me like the second coming of Alex Gonzalez.
It does baffle the mind that Dusty continues to try to make him stick there. His primary qualification for batting leadoff is being the shortstop. I weep.
I think Cozart’s primary qualification for leadoff is that most of the other options are even worse. I think Stubbs is a better option than Heisey. Phillips is a better option to hit leadoff but they feel he’s more useful elsewhere in the lineup.
It’s impressive that the Reds are in first place despite not having any options for a lineup that fans would support.
That’s simply not true. If we agree the primary job of batting leadoff is getting on base, the following players have better OPB than Cozart:
EVERY OTHER REGULAR STARTER EXCEPT ROLEN.
@eric nyc:
@eric nyc: @eric nyc:
Not to beat a dead horse (but I have my bat out) …
How is it that moving Cozart out of the leadoff spot would positively effect his hitting (due to less pressure), but you contend that moving Billy Hamilton to a whole new position, the OF, should have no effect on HIS hitting?
@Racine Red: I think if he can keep up this caliber of defense and hit .275 he’s an All Star caliber SS. I also think the wildness you’re seeing is a result of him pushing because of the added pressure being put on him as the leadoff hitter. I also don’t think he’s nearly fast enough to have it make any sense to bat him there. I hope Dusty forcing it on him doesn’t end up ruining him ala Stubbs. Stick him at 6 or 7 and I think he will end up being a well above average SS for at least 3 or 4 years.
Stubbs is the toughest guy on the team to know what to do with right now.
Over the last 30 days he’s “hit” 125/210/304, which actually shows surprising patience and power for a guy who really can’t make contact to save his life. K rate of 32%.
Compare that to Heisey and Ludwick who have hit 280/345/500 and 286/357/571 respectively, and it’s a no contest as far as who should be playing right now.
At this point I think a trade or a demotion are in order for Stubbs. If they can get a useful piece for him, just let him go. See if someone else can help him out because the Reds are just making it worse.
Otherwise, see if some time in AAA, with different coaches and less pressure, can at least get him back to where he was when he first got called up.
It’s funny what you can prove depending on which splits you use. Stubbs went into an 0/32 hitless streak to prove that his career before and after never did or will exist. He had a ~.350 OBP as the #2 hitter before getting hurt and his offense dropped off a cliff in the time afterward – I think he’ll start producing again.
I still think Stubbs is more capable of reaching base than Heisey while being a better baserunner and a better outfielder… on a team that values pitching, speed, and defense. There’s definitely disagreement over who should be playing in CF… but the people whose opinion matters have sided with Stubbs.
Demoting somebody to AAA without any minor league depth during a winning streak, it just doesn’t add up.
@Matt WI: If he’s going to insist on batting Cozart-Stubbs/Heisey 1 and 2, I don’t see any reason to not just go ahead and switch them. You’re getting the same OBP out of the spots, Stubbs/Heisey clearly aren’t benefiting from batting 2nd, and both of those guys have more speed than Cozart if they can manage to get on base. Plus Cozart hit MUCH MUCH MUCH better in the 2 hole while he was there. Less pressure and better pitches ahead of Joey. Not to mention that Dusty gets to bat his CF leadoff and SS 2nd which Willie Mays told him you have to do.
Winning streak = Reason to not go ahead and switch them.
Cozart started off hitting great in the #2 hole. Stubbs hit ~.350 in the #2 hole until he got hurt, then his 0/32 streak erased all memory of his successful season in the eyes of fans. I don’t think Cozart’s production is going to change significantly by switching from the 1st to 2nd spot in the lineup.
C’mon, that’s going a little far, don’t you think? He’s hitting 212/281/357 on the year, in what way can that be described as “succesful.”
You accuse the “fans” of having a bad memory, but doesn’t it seem like your’e letting a few weeks of good hitting in the 2 spot cloud your memory of what has been a very unsuccesful season overall?
FWIW, a commenter on redsminorleagues.com who attends Pensacola games said Hamilton personally told him a move to the outfield is in his future and he takes an hour of outfield before each game.
Wouldn’t shock me if it was true. Just make sure he’s on the roster by August 31st so he’s eligible for the playoffs!
@eric nyc: You’re dead on. If he can’t be flexible enough to really move Cozart out of the top of the order, why couldn’t he at least do that flip-flop? Both national broadcasts this weekend (Fox and ESPN) pointed out how terrible the top of the Reds lineup is. C’mon Walt, please find a way to make that better!
@Matt WI: Even Leake is better at getting on base… but he’s got a crappy walk rate. Must come with the day job, he’s naturally averse
@redsfanman: Don’t know if I can buy that argument. They’ve been winning during this stretch DESPITE the horrible production at the top of the order. My suggestion would, at the very least, be a zero sum switch which at best puts the guys with more experience in the higher-pressure role and lets the rookie ease up a bit. Worst case scenario, you still get almost no production out of the top 2 spots and best case scenario you get at least a bit of an improvement out of Cozart plus some more speed out of the leadoff man if they can get on base. Don’t see the downside unless you really think Stubbs is going to bust out of his slump that has lasted the better part of 18 months now.
@eric nyc:
I observe that the lineup has been part of the team that’s on this winning streak. A lineup that is so poorly designed and arranged that it’s still scoring enough runs to win games.
The player on the Reds roster with the most experience in the leadoff role, I think that’s Stubbs – I’m fine with switching him back to leadoff and moving Cozart to 2nd, 7th, or 8th. But that’ll be unpopular. Just like any other lineup change.
Stubbs’ slump hasn’t ‘lasted the better part of 18 months’, it’s lasted about a month, including the All Star Break, since he got hurt.
It is… but that’s with stellar pitching. It’d be nice not to be in one and two run games as often if it can be helped.
The Reds scored 8/12 of their runs against the Cards in the 7th and beyond. Which is to say one thing they are not doing is jumping out early… when ideally your lineup is set to do just that.
@redsfanman: He was pretty bad all of last year and has been downright awful this year except for a couple games here and there. I was being purposefully hyperbolic, but I don’t think it’s THAT much of a stretch to say that Stubbs has not been a particularly good offensive baseball player for the last season and a half.
Very interesting lineup with Votto out:
Drew Stubbs 8
Zack Cozart 6
Todd Frazier 3
Brandon Phillips 4
Jay Bruce 9
Scott Rolen 5
Chris Heisey 7
Ryan Hanigan 2
Bronson Arroyo 1
Hey look what Dusty did with 1-2! You’re welcome, Dusty. I’m fine with Joey gettign a day off. His knee is still bothering him> Really wish he would have taken the AS week off.
Reds.com had an article about Votto probably getting a day off because, as Dusty says, “I don’t see the knee as much as I see some fatigue, which is usually around this time of year.”
Which is funny, because it’s really hot in most places now and according to Dusty, that’s when guys are loose and really ready to go. Must be because Votto’s from Canada.
Also, I’m glad Frazier is taking Joey’s place instead of Cairo, but it begs the question: What the H is Cairo still doing on this roster? He never PH’s anymore and if this is what we’re going to do the one or two other times this year Joey sits then he has absolutely ZERO value to this club.
@wally mo: I’m not really sure why he’s arguing that Janish is as good offensively as Cozart either. And I’m a Janish fan… No promise that Cozart will hit better in the future than he has this year but I think he will. His minor league numbers aren’t great but they are about average for a SS coming out. No, he doesn’t walk enough but he does have some pop which improves his SLG. He also generally hits the ball harder than Janish. My gut and his MiLB track-record says he’ll be a decent MLB hitter and certainly much better than Janish. Once again, I like Janish.
I don’t know what to say about Dusty’s lineup today, but I’ve got to say something…
I’m so glad that Dusty decided to play Frazier while Votto sits, but I’m not buying Dusty’s argument that Votto is tired. We just finished a 4 day all star break, so even for the players selected as all stars, that was 3 days without any games played. Then 3 games later a player needs a day off because he’s tired? Yeah, right.
Playing Frazier at 1B with Votto out is almost mind boggling, but I’ll take whatever crumbs Mr. Baker wants to spread around in order to make the lineup more effective, for any reason.
Playing Frazier and Rolen together in a lineup and hitting Frazier ahead of Rolen is also equally mind boggling, but again the crumbs thing.
Sitting Ludwick when Votto is out of the lineup… well I guess there are only so many crumbs available.