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Before the season started, I compiled the top 20 prospects lists published from Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, and MinorLeagueBall.com into a single top 20 prospect list. Below is the order of that offseason prospect list ranking with a mid-season update on how the prospects are progressing.
1. Devin Mesoraco – C (.214/.295/.393)
Devin Mesoraco has been with the Reds since opening day as the back-up catcher to Ryan Hanigan, typically catching 2 out of every 5 games. Mesoraco had a hot start to the season with a .300 AVG and .822 OPS at the end of April, but has struggled the past couple of months. Devin will start the second half of the season in the midst of a modest 5 game hitting streak.
2. Billy Hamilton – SS (.323/.411/.443)
Hamilton was promoted to AA this week after his appearance in the Futures game. He has already stolen 105 bases in 83 games. The bat is there. The speed is there. The question is whether his defense will improve at shortstop or will he eventually be moved to another position.
3. Zack Cozart – SS (.252/.298/.409)
In his first full half season, Cozart has a league average OPS for a shortstop and has more than held his own defensively. A poor May has sunk his overall line. Since May 31, Cozart has hit .273/.320/.420, and starts the 2nd half having hit safely in 6 of his last 7 games.
4. Daniel Corcino – SP (6-4, 3.16 ERA, 1.255 WHIP)
Corcino has taken all 17 of his starts for AA Pensacola, and at this pace could find himself in the Reds sometime in the 2013 season.
5. Robert Stephenson – SP (0-0, 2.18 ERA, 1.161 WHIP)
Stephenson made his professional debut with Billings in June. Through his first 5 starts, Stephenson has thrown 20.2 innings, allowed 16 hits, 8 walks, and struck out 24 batters.
6. DiDi Gregorius – SS (.278/.344/..373)
Gregorius is the third shortstop prospect in Cincinnati’s top 6, and the best of the trio defensively. With his and Hamilton’s promotions this week, all three of these Reds pre-season SS prospects are at the AA level or higher.
7. Todd Frazier – 3B/LF (.278/.345/.556)
It doesn’t seem like it, but Todd Frazier had the majority of the Reds starts at 3B in the first half, putting up a better first half slash line than super hyped prospect Bryce Harper.
8. J.C. Sulbaran – SP (6-6, 4.22 ERA, 1.506 WHIP)
Sulbaran has shown flashes of talent for AA Pensacola, but has not yet strung together strong starts consistently.
9. Neftali Soto – 1B (.236/.293/.380)
Blocked by Joey Votto at the major league level, Soto is having a rough season at AAA, so far.
10. Henry Rodriguez – 2B/3B (.325/.363/.422)
After playing the first month in AA, Rodriguez spent almost 2 months on the DL with a broken thumb. He just returned last week and was promoted to AAA Louisville.
11. Tony Cingrani – SP (9-2, 1.28 ERA, 0.943 WHIP)
After an excellent two months in Bakersfield, Cingrani was promoted to AA and continues to match his impressive performance against tougher competition. Cingrani has a 28/121 BB/K ratio in 98.2 innings pitched this season.
12. Yorman Rodriguez – RF (.226/.251/.360)
The 19-year-old Rodriguez had a rough start in Bakersfield (.381 OPS in 23 games.) The trip to Dayton really seems to have helped so far, as he’s put up a .311/.338/.554 slash line in the 19 games he’s played for the Dragons.
13. Gabriel Rosa 3B/SS (.155/.169/.241)
Rosa is off to a slow start in the first 15 games of Billings season. It’s a rather small sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions, yet.
14. Kyle Lotzkar – SP (7-3, 3.97 ERA, 1.396 WHIP)
Lotzkar had a perfect 3-0 record with a 2.39 ERA in 5 starts for Bakersfield. Since his promotion to AA, he’s been a little more wild (4.8 BB/9), though exhibiting the strikeout rate (11.1 K/9) that he showed prior to the 2011 season.
15. Ryan LaMarre – CF (.273/.360/.367)
The 23-year-old, right-handed centerfielder has improved his walk rate to over 10% of his plate appearances for the first time in his professional career (42 BB in 380 PA) but he’s also seen a slight uptick in his strikeout rate this year (24.5% up from 22.0%).
16. Kyle Waldrop – RF/LF (.270/.337/.394)
This 20-year-old Dayton Dragon is in his 3rd professional season with Cincinnati, having played with the AZL Reds and Billing Mustangs in each of his previous two seasons. Waldrop’s power is down just a little from last year, but his BB/PA rate has improved from 3.4% to 8.1% while his K/AB rate has dropped from 24% to 18%.
17. Amir Garrett – SP (0-1, 15.43 ERA, 2 GS)
Garrett has made just two starts, throwing 2.1 innings as a professional for the AZL Reds.
18. David Vidal – 3B (.260/.326/.437)
Vidal had a .870 OPS after a month at Bakersfield but struggled at first after his promotion to AA Pensacola. Vidal has been improving throughout June and July, and over his past 10 games is hitting .286/.359/.514, matching his production with what he did in the more offensively minded California league.
19. Tucker Barnhart – C (.272/.363/.399)
Tucker continues to get on base frequently and play great defense. Barnhart has thrown out 38% of the 81 attempted base thefts. He was promoted to AA Pensacola last week. Yesterday, Barnhart was named by the Reds as their minor league player of the month after a huge June at Bakersfield (.382/.455/.603 – 1.057 OPS).
20. Juan Duran – LF (.232/.278/.363)
The 20-year-old outfielder has had a rough, streaky first half for Bakersfield, including lows of a .476 OPS in April and highs of batting .300 AVG (.771 OPS) in July.
Former top prospect: Left-handed reliever Donnie Joseph fell off the top 20 radar of many lists after the 2011 season, but he has bounced back in a big way. Splitting his time between AA Pensacola and more recently AAA Louisville, Joseph has a 1.24 ERA, 0.916 WHIP, and a 14/60 BB/K ratio in 43.2 innings.
Due to the emergence of so many players this year plus the addition of some exciting draftees, I don’t see how J.C., Neftali, Juan, or Amir stick in the top 20 next year.
Nice mix of high ceiling and lower ceiling/high floor types. On this account, I think we’ve been slow to credit Walt and Co. for the work they’re doing.
In the past year the Reds have really successfully skimmed the top layer off their farm system. Mesoraco, Alonso, Grandal, Cozart, Frazier, Francisco, Boxberger, Chapman, all out of the farm system to become MLB players. It’s a strange way for a team’s farm system to grow worse, producing too much MLB-ready talent. For almost a decade they had trouble getting one or two MLB players a year out of the farm system. It’s unfortunate that it’s portrayed as the Reds’ farm system beginning and ending with Billy Hamilton.
It seems like Tony Cingrani, Daniel Corcino, and Kyle Lotzkar are all likely trade candidates. With Chapman blocked from a rotation spot how many of the rotation candidates do they need to keep long term? It seems like Lotzkar needs a change of scenery after all the problems he’s had over the past few seasons… and his value seems reasonably high.
Henry Rodriguez and DiDi Gregorius both seem like trade candidates – what future do they have in an organization with Phillips, Cozart, Frazier, and Billy Hamilton under team control long term?
I’m not disagreeing about trading him, but why would you think that “a change of scenery” would cure his injury problems?
I think SOMETHING isn’t going right for him in the Reds’ organization – it seems like he’s been credited with having a good arm and good pitches in scouting reports, but he deals with injuries and control problems. He’s been having a lot of trouble recently in AA. If he has a MLB career ahead of him I don’t think it’ll be with the Reds.
I’m hoping that Cingrani has been moved to the untouchables category. That guy is dominant, and I expect him to be the best pitcher of the bunch at the MLB level.
I don’t know. You might be right, but the farm system is several other upper rotation pitchers like Lotzkar, Corcino, Stephenson and Tavieso. Just as a note, there are also some very impressive bullpen pitchers coming like Donnie Joseph and El’Hajj Muhammad.
The Reds have a young rotation that current features 5 starting pitchers plus a 6th guy who many fans were really angry to see left out – Aroldis Chapman. With Arroyo signed through 2013 it doesn’t seem like the Reds will be searching for a starter until 2014… or after that if Chapman does enter the rotation. Corcino and Cingrani look like the only of the rotation prospects who are close to MLB ready but I don’t think both should be untouchable just because of potential unforeseen circumstances years down the road. Somebody like Billy Hamilton, they are likely to have an opening and a role for him to fill when he’s ready.
I don’t know, where is there a hole for Billy Hamilton where there isn’t for a starting pitcher? First of all, pitchers get hurt a lot, and just because we have 5 now doesn’t mean we will by the end of the year or next year.
Second, The pitchers we have are going to be geting more expensive through arbitration, and it doesn’t seem likely that we’re going to be able to keep Bailey, Leake, and Latos all past 2013. So we’re losing Arroyo, probably can’t keep the other 5 all together once they’re all making millions, and that’s only 5 starters. So I would say keeping some of our best pitching prospects is pretty key.
Third, we’ve signed Phillips long term and have rookies at SS and 3B. I guess if you see Hamilton as a CF, and think that they’ll move Stubbs, that could happen, but since he hasn’t played a single game their, that seems like it’s probably a ways off.
TC, you (I think its you) keep talking about Muhammad. I’ve watched him in Dayton, I’ve looked at his career numbers thus far, what are you seeing that I’m missing? His WHIP is high for a BP guy, his walk rate is high, he does have a good K rate, but I just don’t see it.
If the Reds’ rotation sustains a major injury it’ll be interesting to see if Cingrani gets promoted – I don’t want them to rush a pitcher but I’m not sure what he still has to prove in the minors, let alone AA. That said, other teams probably see that he’s been dominant and that he might have a future ahead of him as a MLB starter. If you want to make a trade you (usually) have to give up something in return.
@Sultan of Swaff: Three of the guys in this list certainly won’t qualify for prospect lists next year (Mesoraco, Cozart, and Frazier), but I agree with most of your list of guys at risk for falling off the top 20. Garrett is low on the list at #17, but I think it’s too early to say whether he would rise or fall on the list after just 2.1 professional innings.
@redsfanman: It’s extremely rare that the team has been able to use exactly five starters this deep into the season. You’ve got Arroyo’s contract ending next year. Plus who knows what the club does with Homer Bailey as he reaches the next two more expensive arbitration years. Maybe they keep him, trade him, or non-tender him, depending on he performs over the rest of this year and next. I wouldn’t like to see them trade away too many upper level starting pitchers, epecially Cingrani and Corcino.
@Greg Dafler:
I know it’s extremely rare to only go use 5 starters – usually the Reds need 6 or 7 starters just to get through April. Arroyo’s contract ends after 2013 and who knows where the prospects will be in 2014? For all we know Robert Stephenson could be ready by 2014 – maybe Chapman will make a long awaited rotation debut to replace Arroyo. As far as Homer Bailey’s future, I think a lot of factors go into that – they’ve never indicated a desire to give up on or get rid of him.
I don’t mean to imply that Cingrani and Corcino should BOTH be trade bait, but I think they can justify considering moving one of the two. As I’ve said I don’t think Lotzkar has a future pitching for the Reds. The Reds have depth when it comes to young starting pitching.
Cingrani has indeed been dominant, maybe he is the best pitcher in the farm system. I assume other teams have noticed that too. If the Reds want to make a big trade for a leadoff or cleanup solution it would require trading away something valuable in return.
The Reds had pitching depth in the offseason so they traded away Travis Wood and Brad Boxberger. They had hitting depth so they traded away Yonder Alonso and Yasmani Grandal. They’re clearly willing to trade certain young players. If they can get a fair deal for Corcino or Cingrani – not just a mediocre rental player – I think it’d be worth making a trade.
My point (and while I wouldn’t want to see any pitching prospects get traded away), I don’t see Cingrani as untouchable by any means. I do agree right now he is the best looking one of the bunch.
RE: Billy Hamilton – I am not sure why he is not playing CF immediately. Too much talent at SS around and above him right now and I think Stubbs is too hard-headed to respond to coaching. I see Stubbs being moved quickly if Hamilton takes to CF like I think he will.
Re: Cingrani: I saw on Twitter not too long ago one of the Brand Name baseball writers answering a question about Cingrani, and the writer cautioned not to scout prospects (particularly pitchers) on their minor league numbers. I don’t know how much that writer (can’t remember which one) specifically knew about Cingrani, but probably good advice. I’ll be interested to hear what scouts say about him.