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Baseball people, and that includes myself, are slow to change and accept new ideas. I remember that it took years to persuade them to put numbers on uniforms. – Branch Rickey
I thought of this quote as I walked away from my seat at GABP on Sunday, a seat that, while 325 feet away from home plate, still afforded me a clear view of not only the back of Jay Bruce, but a collection of people that clearly are not pulling in the same direction. I was inside Citi Field a week ago Friday as the Redlegs easily handled the hometown NY Madoffs. As they did that night in Queens, the Reds have, at various times this season, made it look easy. In fact, Aroldis Chapman’s first half seems to be a microcosm of this team as a whole: dominating one moment, disappointing the next; young and full of promise, but unsure of roles.
In the spirit of full disclosure, I tell you I am no fan of Johnny Lee Baker. The obvious benefits of his “players’ manager” philosophy and the clubhouse harmony it produces have been far outweighed by his inability to mold his players into an entity that at the very least should be the sum of its individual parts on the field, if not greater. The Defenders of Dusty routinely fall back on an old baseball meme, declaring with certainty that “players win games, not managers.”
True dat.
Also true is that few players on this roster are placed in roles that give them the best opportunity to perform at their highest level. Good managers do that, yeah? Our manager not only places his charges in sub-optimal roles when the game begins, but doubles down on those mistakes by holding his best remaining players back in crucial situations because they don’t occur late enough in the game to give him a comfort zone from his own inner doubts and the howls of those circling, second-guessing hounds, real and imagined.
There are many in Camp Baker who would rather see the focus shift to GM Jocketty, who in their opinion bears much of the responsibility of the current state of the Reds. All of which would be fair game except for one nagging problem:
We don’t know what we don’t know.
The jury is out on the Latos deal and will be for some time. We don’t know the role owner Castellini plays in the management of employee Baker. Does the GM believe that as long as the manager has support of the owner, his hands are tied? Has Castellini informed the GM that he’s happy with the job done from the dugout, thank you very much? Has decision-making on acquisitions of role players like Renteria, Cabrera, Patterson—and lately Harris and Valdez—been driven solely by available money or are they merely bad bets laid down by Walt? Were other players of similar value available to the Reds? I wanted the Reds to go after Melky Cabrera two years ago. Was he even willing to come to Cincinnati? The biggest question mark may be Baker and Jocketty’s working relationship. Is it constructive? Nobody’s saying.
Dusty Baker is out in the open. His moves lay there broiling in the hot sun of a 162 game season and under the harsh lights of those toothbrush light stanchions surrounding the baseball diamond. There’s nowhere for him to hide. Comparatively, Jocketty operates in the relative shadows. Until the daily ballpark tour admits access to Walt Jocketty’s laptop and email threads, we are left to guess at the true configuration of the power base at 100 Joe Nuxhall Way.
Meanwhile, the wheel turns and Johnny Lee Baker continues to call the shots as the lineup card is handed to the umpiring crew. Tonight’s another night at the ballpark. I’ll head down and watch. And judge with my own two eyes.
And wonder what the man behind the Ray-Bans is thinking. Not to mention the man behind the blinds in the owner’s box.
Leake – 86 pitches, comes out. Cueto – 120+ stays in. Latos – 90+, stays in. Constantly bunting when we have guys who can’t bunt (execpt Valdez). Hanigan batting eighth when he is your second best on-base guy and a great contact hitter. Disturbing misuse of one of the best arms to come along in a long time in Chapman. Playing washed-up veterans instead of young players with skills. The easiest thing for a manager to do is make out a lineup card and he can’t even get that right. I like Dusty as a person and respect his service to baseball. But old-school thinking is out the window, it is time to move on.
that’s a great quote.
i agree with you that we can only really go on what we know, and based on that, i feel like dusty and walt share the blame pretty equally, and that ownership is about as good as you can hope for right now.
dusty’s side is clear: he does not believe that anything that has been learned about how to score runs and prevent runs in the last 10+ years is worth a damn. they won games back when hank aaron was playing, so what’s the use?
baseball isn’t about strategy for him as much as it’s about relationships, feeling the right thing to do, trusting your gut, and getting the right guys going. imho, this form of mysticism has been thoroughly debunked, and now we’re just in a transition period, waiting for the old dogs to retire.
walt’s side of the blame can be measured in two ways, both relating to player acquisition, which he is ultimately responsible for. sure, ownership can approve or deny, and the manager can request, but the GM leads the front office, which puts the team together.
the first is that he has brought in a lot of guys with low OBP. there’s no getting around it. he doesn’t seem to place a lot of value on it.
second, and i think more damning, is all of the old cardinals he’s brought in. this seems worse to me not because of any one player, but because it shows a fundamental philosophy: the guys i am friends with are better at baseball than the people i don’t know.
that’s nepotism, or cronyism basically. and it doesn’t seem to say very good things about his approach to talent evaluation.
Great post, Richard.
The relationship between Jocketty and Baker is undoubtedly far more complicated than the oversimplifications we commonly employ here, particularly in relation to player acquisition and roster construction. We just don’t know what the internal politics are like. You’ve put your finger on one of the two biggest variables – how much support the manager has from the owner. If Baker has Castellini’s strong support, which I suspect he does, then Baker probably has a lot more influence on the normal GM decisions than we imagine.
Also, even if he wasn’t compelled to do so by the owner’s preference, Jocketty may want to defer to Baker’s wishes because he thinks that’s a good way to do business. And he might be right about that. A GM may see his primary role as being supportive of the Manager and therefore wants to provide the players that the Manager wants. The Manager says he wants a veteran SS, poof, we have a veteran SS. The Manager says he wants Jonny Gomes back, poof.
The Manager says he wants Aroldis Chapman to close, poof.
I’m not suggesting that the GM has no independent role to play. Only that there is way more back-and-forth involved than the characterization of “that’s on the GM” or “that’s on Baker” would imply.
Walt was just extended last year through 2014. Dusty’s contact expires this season. That is one good indication of where Castellini’s support lies. Another is in the fact that Walt is a veteran GM who is well-regarded and has a World Series under his belt.
There’s internal politics everywhere, and it’s impact on decision making by organizations is immense. Who really knows the relationships among these men? There are probably a whole slew of ‘underlings’ (not trying to be disrespectful, it’s just the first word that came to mind)who make decisions which impact the team of whom we have no knowledge. But the manager is the public face who we see on the field every day. He makes an easy target, and unfortunately, Dusty’s decisions even make him an easier target than he needs to be.
Nicely done
The Branch Rickie quote is as accurate as any I’ve seen about baseball. I use the “a lot of managers would do the same thing” defense a lot because it’s true. Of course the counter to my argument would be “they’d be wrong too” … Statistical analysis is becoming more prevalent from the front-office on down to the dugout but it is a very slow movement. Baseball is strongly rooted in tradition and change of any kind comes about slowly. Heck, I’m a SABR member and I struggle with people who use some of the advanced metrics, especially defensive metrics, as the primary basis of their arguments for doing or not doing something. I also think that a lot of the more statistically inclined tend to forget that we are dealing with humans. Bench a player for example and he gets angry. That anger is picked up on by other players. They get angry, etc… Change a player’s routine (put him in the bullpen, change his lineup or position, etc) and maybe his performance changes. In short, things that look good on paper don’t always work.
All that said, if you aren’t doing statistical analysis you are not using a very valuable tool. I don’t know if the Reds have a analytics office or not but they seem to be behind in this area of baseball’s development.
Dusty Baker was hired in 2008 and given a 3 year contract. WJ was hired in 2009, in the middle of DB’s 3 year contract. That arrangement and relationship can be strained at best. After the Reds won the division in 2010, the 2 year contract extension for DB was inevitable and unavoidable. There is no obvious or public friction between BC, WJ and DB. That in itself speaks well to the professionalism of these three individuals, but such a closed shop makes evaluating the flawed end result from the outside very frustrating, but that’s our problem as fans, not their problem as baseball professionals. Since DB was in place before WJ joined the Reds, it is hard for me to envision the full control for normal GM actions regarding player aquisition and roster assignments under his complete responsibility. Until WJ has his own manager running the major league team, he is somewhat insulated from criticism. Once WJ has his own manager in place for 2013 or DB is given another contract extension, WJ must assume ALL responsibility (blame if waranted) for these hairbrain aquisitions of less than marginally productive, over-the-hill veterans who simply eat up roster spots and playing time from deserving young talent. The blame for DB using and misusing these less than marginally productive, over-the-hill veterans rests squarely on his shoulders, whether he had inordinate input in their aquisitions or not.
All that said, if you aren’t doing statistical analysis you are not using a very valuable tool. I don’t know if the Reds have a analytics office or not but they seem to be behind in this area of baseball’s development.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/job-posting-reds-development-intern/
The Reds do have a team that focuses on metrics, they hardly trumpet it, nor does any of the press in the area dog them about it… but it’s there.
Software Development Intern – Cincinnati Reds (Cincinnati, OH)
Department: Baseball Operations
Job Title: Software Development Intern
Reports To: Manager of Baseball Research and Analysis, Manager of Baseball Systems Development
FLSA: Hourly, Non Exempt
Job Purpose: The Cincinnati Reds are currently seeking a Baseball Operations Software Development Intern. This position reports to the Baseball Operations staff and will assist in the development and operation of the department’s player information and evaluation system. This position requires strong statistical, database management, and software development skills and experience, as well as a demonstrated ability for independent thought and for working within a team framework.
Expectations:
- Adhere to Cincinnati Reds organization policies and procedures
- Act as a role model within and outside the Cincinnati Reds organization
- Perform duties as workload necessitates
- Demonstrate flexible and efficient time management and ability to prioritize workload
- Meet department productivity standards
Duties/Expectations: Responsible for, but not limited to the following:
- Work with Baseball Operations staff to develop and implement statistical and scouting databases and front-end graphical user interfaces
- Design stored procedures and views for baseball operations database systems using Microsoft SQL Server
- Develop applications using Microsoft C# and other relevant tools using industry best practices.
- Participate in the testing that is required before development programs are moved to production.
- Continue to identify features and functions to be incorporated into the baseball operations database system, including solicitation of feedback from Baseball Operations staff to evaluate system and prioritize additions/improvements
- Share responsibility for training staff on use of system, including in-person training and development and maintenance of a reference manual
- Provide ongoing support and troubleshooting of system, including upgrades to take advantage of new technology and data feeds from 3rd party providers
- Potentially develop applications for Apple and Android devices
@Brian Erts: Too bad it’s for an intern. I have the skills required to do that job
I may be off base with this, but I don’t care whether the Reds have a staff sitting around developing new statistical methods for analyzing baseball. You can reinvent the BABIP all you want, but if the upper level decision makers don’t use it, who cares? There are already enough statistics out there. There is nothing new about OBP. Being committed to developing, signing and trading players who are good at it is another thing. Is it the job of the Manager of Baseball Research and Analysis to go to the GM and Manager and explain that looking for an “RBI guy” is stupid?
How many interns does it take to learn that Chris Heisey walked one time in his 65 plate appearances batting ahead of Joey MVP?
What you need is a Manager who either (a) sees getting on base as an important part of the job of batting ahead of #19 or (b) holds players accountable for not doing said job.
These issues are really so much simpler than “advanced statistical analysis.” In a way, that’s gorilla dust.
Do we need a Manager of Baseball Systems Development to tell Walt Jocketty and Dusty Baker that front-of-the-rotation starting pitchers are worth several times more than an elite closer?
Great quote from Branch Rickey. Ironic that it came from him, one of baseball’s great innovators. He’s mainly known for breaking the color barrier by bringing Jackie Robinson into MLB.
But he did a lot more than that. As a GM, he developed his own “advanced metrics”, including OBP and metrics for pitchers based on walks and Ks, not on wins and losses. He also was the first GM (first successful one anyway) to emphasize a team’s putting major resources into its minor league system and player development.
Baseball people are not only slow to acceptt change, they’re even slower to acknowledge that they’ve accepted something new.
A friend of a friend of mine worked on an advanced analytics staff for Brain Cashman. He said that EVERY major league team has such a staff, made up of young guys with PhDs in math and economics. Other sources from within baseball have said this publicly, such as in mlbnetwork interviews.
Teams don’t like to talk about this, the culture of baseball is very secretive, no team wants the other teams to know what they’re doing.
Advanced analytics staffs of course work for a team’s GM. He didn’t hire them to ignore them. But the manager ? There we get into the relationship between the manager and the GM, the beliefs of the manager, etc.
We have no idea of what goes on between WJ and Dusty. There’s got to be some pretty serious conflitcs there, but then again Castellini obviously likes both of them, they seem able to work together.
@Brian Erts: Nice comment, sorry I missed it before writing mine. It seems that every ML team has an analytics staff.
It’s part of the culture of baseball that very few of them trumpet it.