The Reds have cycled through their pitching rotation thirteen times. Four of the five starters haven’t missed a game. Mike Leake was skipped once. (We need to acknowledge and be grateful that the Reds starters have been remarkably healthy so far this year.) The table below shows how the Reds’ rotation has performed (a) relative to the National League average, (b) in relation to each other, and (c) how they have pitched the last month. The numbers in parentheses indicate the performance after eight full rotations, the last time this Take Five summary was posted.
|Mat Latos (25)||9.00||2.69||7.5%||.307||3.04||2.93||3.34||3.46||12-3|
|Homer Bailey (27)||8.83||2.08||10.4%||.307||3.81||3.13||3.16||3.24||7-10|
|Bronson Arroyo (36)||5.33||1.57||11.2%||.266||3.51||4.13||4.04||4.26||10-9|
|Mike Leake (25)||5.49||2.26||10.1%||.272||2.86||4.00||4.06||4.28||10-5|
|Tony Cingrani (23)||10.20||3.36||11.5%||.225||2.69||3.59||3.47||3.33||5-2|
1. Overall, the Reds starting pitching is a little below league average in ERA, FIP, K/9 and SwStr%. Only Johnny Cueto is better than average.
2. Overall, the last five trips through the rotation were about the same as the first eight. Leake and Bailey have been better recently, Arroyo and Latos worse. Johnny Cueto has been about the same.
3. Homer Bailey is the only Reds starter above average in SwStr%. Mat Latos is the only Reds starter above average in K/9. The Reds do not have a starting staff of power arms (not exactly a news flash). The bullpen, that’s another matter.
4. Some statistical truths confirmed: the win-loss records are weakly related to underlying fundamental stats, and the BABIP has been moving toward the league average, as it should. For most pitchers, their luck eventually evens out.