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Let’s recap today’s titanic struggle….
FINAL
Cincinnati 4
New York (N) 1
W: H. Bailey (5-4)
L: J. Niese (4-3)
S: A. Chapman (8)
BOX SCORE
POSITIVES
–That’s five in a row now. A win tomorrow would match the longest streak of the year.
–Homer Bailey. I’ve been as big a detractor as I could reasonably be, but I just can’t complain about him this year and especially tonight.
–Everyone in the starting lineup except Homer has exactly one hit. Way to spread it around, boys.
–Jay Bruce hit his 15th homer today and set the tone for the win. He’s having a very nice year.
–Joey Votto got on base twice today. Also, the sun set in the west.
NEGATIVES
–None
NOT-SO-RANDOM THOUGHTS
–Now that they’ve started to hit the Reds seem almost indestructible. They aren’t, of course, but it’s a nice feeling.
–I remember a time when many people thought Votto should be traded and Alonso given first. Well, before today’s game, Votto had been good for 4.2 WAR while Alonso had generated -0.3 WAR for the Padres (oh, that’s park adjusted, by the way). Anybody still feel that way?
–This is an off-the-cuff rant, but Thom mentioned the quality start a few times today. The QS is a good stat. Yes, it is true that 3 runs in six innings is a 4.50 ERA and that is not very good. Of course, the next-highest single-start ERA you can have is 3.86 (3 runs in 7 innings), and that actually is pretty good. It only gets better from there. So yeah, those ten quality starts from Homer mean something.
–The Reds are ten over .500 now and stay four up on both the Cardinals and the Pirates who both won today. Let us continue to bask in the glory of this team and not complain. Reds go for the sweep tomorrow. Johnny Cueto will be on the mound, and I like those odds. I’ll be watching.
Source: FanGraphs
the only thing I’ve got to complain about?? No highlights yet on mlb.com !!!
Will someone please get me a link to Saturday’s Louisville Bats game? I cannot find one. And I have tried.
Rating the Reds pitchers
By ERA: Cueto, Arroyo, Bailey, Latos, Leake
By FIP: Cueto, Arroyo, Leake, Bailey, Latos
By WAR: Cueto, Arroyo, Leake, Bailey, Latos
By xFIP: Leake, Cueto, Arroyo, Latos, Bailey
Seems to me Bailey is who we thought he was.
It’s Latos who’s clearly a disappointment so far and Arroyo the massive positive surprise (at least it’s a surprise to me)
As happy as I am about the great record and being in first place, I think it’s important that we continue complaining as long as lineup and in-game strategic mistakes continue happening on a regular basis. One of the things that bugs me about Dusty is his “I’m sure things will work out” attitude. This can take many forms, such as leaving a pitcher in when it’s clear he’s losing it, or allowing a guy to go 0 for 56 before deciding he might not be an ideal leadoff hitter, bating his worst hitter 2nd “to get him going,” etc. So, in order to avoid being hypocritical, I intend to remain vigilant in my criticism no matter how many games the Reds win. I refuse to adopt the “I’m sure things will work out” attitude. Mistakes are mistakes even when the team is winning. Despite all the wins, this team is simply not good enough to coast into the playoffs and on to the Series with a manager making blatant strategic blunders left and right.
@zippy:
I agree in general, though I reserve the right to disagree over what might constitute a mistake.
We’ll likely be hammered in the post seaseon if DBaker is still making up nonsensical lineups and bizarre pitching staff moves.
I’ll begrudgingly recognize your right disagree as to what constitutes a mistake. But I think we can probably all agree on some of them, which are the ones that clearly deserve criticism and are probably the most likely to undermine a potentially great season. At this point I don’t think I’d trade the Reds’ roster for any roster in the national league. So, from my perspective, the only things potentially standing between the Reds and a deep run in the playoffs are injuries and Dusty Baker’s blunders. Injuries are out of anyone’s control, but Baker’s blunders theoretically could be stopped if he ever felt any pressure to reevaluate anything.
Homer 10 of 13 quality starts. Maybe they should be called good starts. Plus, the quality start standard is 6 IP with 3 ER or less. But in practice, pitchers out-perform those floors. Homer has pitched more than six innings in almost half his starts. And he has given up fewer than 3 runs six times out of 13.
I’ll take a #4 pitcher who has 10 good starts out of 13.
Very smooth sailing right now as the Reds keep winning. I see potential trouble on the horizon when Rolen returns, if he doesn’t start hitting. Todd Frazier has to play every day and it’s hard to see that happening. If Frazier plays LF, then playing Rolen at 3B is costing us Heisey or Ludwick, assuming Stubbs goes back to everyday CF.
If Rolen hits and Frazier plays LF, no problem. But if Rolen continues to struggle at the plate and Baker keeps playing him, say 5 games a week, that’s going to create an issue.
Next week promises to be interesting if nothing else.
I agree, Homer is now a solid 4th starter.
I want to know if this is the real deal with Frazier.
B Harper – 166 ABs .289/.367/.518/.885 7HR 19RBI
T Frazier- 126 ABs .278/.343/.571/.914 7HR 22RBI
Small sample but they come close to mirroring his MiLB numbers.
Pitchers have to take some responsibility for the unearned runs they allow since most all errors are a byproduct of the pitcher allowing baserunners.
For example the April 27 game vs Houston where Leake gave up 6 runs; but just 3 earned. In the 4th inning the leadoff batter doubled, then the next batter reached on an error. If he gets the next batter out instead of allowing a double only 1 run(earned) scores instead of 4(3 unearned). Later on in that inning he had a shot to get out of the inning allowing just 2 runs but gave up another hit.
@TC: It would be great, but I’d guess “no”.
If you offered me .825 for his whole year right now, I’d take it. That’s about his career minor league OPS.
By the way, those Harper numbers…wow. He’s what, 19 years old?
So, just for the sake of wondering, Rolen activated, Negron sent down? When Stubbs comes back, Harris gone again?
@LVW: I thought the “quality start” criteria was runs allowed; not just earned runs, which if I am correct means it does allow for the pitcher’s role in unearned runs as you explained.
I am so eagerly awaiting the re-emergence of Mat Latos. When he finally starts tearing up like he should…DANGEROUS.
@TC: @Racine Red: I would have also said no a month ago, but Frazier’s approach to hitting has changed. He is still hacking with less than two strikes but he has developed a discerning eye at the plate and is willing to take a walk and he has started to develop a knack for fouling off pitches and protecting the plate with two strikes. Frazier will not duplicate Votto’s plate mastery, but he may be developing into a solid major league hitter with power, just the kind of RH hitter needed to hit cleanup and protect Votto while allowing Phillips to move back to leadoff and Cozart to move back to the #2 hole. Oh & BTW, Votto had only an .862 OPS in the minor leagues while Frazier had an .827 OPS in the minor leagues. It is possible to mature as a hitter and perform better at the major league level.
@OhioJim:
It’s earned runs only.
Better than even chance of sweeping with Cueto going tomorrow. It’s not quite 1999, because we’re not staging remarkable comebacks every night, but the feeling is starting to creep in that this group has all the components of a team that could do some damage in the playoffs. In my mind, the missing ingredient is Latos pitching like an ace and a spark at the top of the lineup. *paging Billy Hamilton* I kid, I kid…………sort of. Wouldn’t you be curious to see what he could do in a two week stint in CF? Has anyone missed Stubbs at all??
While I dont agree with everything dusty does, we do have to discern between “bizarre” managerial decisions and “ineffective” ones. For example, no matter how unorthodox batting someone in the 2-hole to “get them going,” just ask cozart, stubbs, and now valdez. All their numbers rise drastically hitting in front of JV, there’s no denying that. If batting stubbs or valdez is the way to get some production out of a bat we have to stick SOMEWHERE, then I’ll let hanigan keep getting his somewhere else. This only remains my opinion is long as we keep getting Improved production.
Bailey is a great #4 with the ability to occasionally pitch much better. I’ll take that right now. Don’t forget he’s been roughed up real bad once or twice. Wonder what his ERA would be minus those?
I like Valdez. He plays baseball. Reminds me of showing up at the lot as a middle school/high schooler and playing whatever position one of the teams needed.
@LVW: Well maybe it should be runs allowed then
I see where Paul Janish is back playing at AAA. He is a potentially big piece as far as organizational depth, especially if he can return to hitting like he was at then time he was injured. He is also a potentially valuable trade commodity to somebody who needs a good fielding middle infielder.
@Sultan of Swaff: I was thinking the same as you about Stubbs not being missed. The fact they’ve got Gathright for ultimate long term depth in CF if they really need it just underscores that fact.
The way the team has performed overall since Rolen went down and in the last 10 days without Stubbs really puts the onus on both of them to perform once they return.
Certainly, Frazier has to continue to play 5 or 6 days a week unless he really cools down. He can probably get 3 days a week in tandem with Rolen but the other days will have to come in the outfield, meaning two out of Stubbs/ Heisey/ Ludwick, will sit on days Frazier needs to play LF to be in the line up.
@BloodyHo: It is most definitely possible to exceed one’s minor league numbers. It’s just uncommon. Votto is an extreme exception, outperforming his numbers from the minors and getting to the bigs at a late age for someone who turned out to be a superstar.
@cliff: If players are playing so well in the #2 slot, why does Votto have so few RBI opps? I haven’t looked at the numbers, but given Votto’s low RBI total and extremely high numbers with RISP, if the #2 hole really got them going, Votto should have a lot of RBI opps, right?
Valdez sucks, he always has sucked, and he always will suck. He’s a bad baseball player. Of course, there are way below average players on just about every roster, actually that’s by definition. But a player with a career OBP of what, .285, is a very bad hitter, and he’s not a great fielder. His OBP this year, after his recent streak, is .234. He can play several positions, but his main claim to fame is that he played on the Phillies so is characterized as a winner. He’s bad. It’s tolerable to have a bad hitter that at least can play anywhere, as long as you have other bench players that can hit. Which the Reds really don’t.
The main reason is our leadoff hitters have combined to “hit” .198 with a .239 OB%. The 2 spot is .289 with a .345 OB%(league average is .276 and .336). Another reason- MVottoP! has been intentionally walked 11 times with RISP.
So does Mesoraco get any credit for Bailey’s good game today? It does seem like there is a double standard. If a pitcher pitches well and Hanigan catches, it’s because Hanigan calls a good game. If the pitcher pitches well and Mesoraco catches, then it’s the pitcher throwing a good game.
He did save a potentially big inning by making a nice play throwing out their leadoff on the strikeout near wild pitch.
I don’t mean to say he’s a great player, but he’s valuable. More so if we didn’t have a Cairo. And the numbers DO seem to suggest that cozart, stubbs, and valdez seem to be doing better in that spot. The reason votto hasn’t had more RBi may have something to do with all the times Willie harris hit there
@Racine Red:
The cumulative .239 OBP from the leadoff spot is killing Votto’s RBI opps. With the .220 OBP from the #9 spot, two of the three hitters in front of Votto don’t reach base even 1/4 of the time. Hard to believe the leadoff position barely gets on base more than the pitcher’s slot.
In 6 games leading off (small sample size), Heisey has a .321 OBP. Nobody else batting 1st comes close to .300 – Cozart at 263 (41 games), Stubbs at .132 (8 games) and BP at .240 (6 games).
I would not be opposed to trading Stubbs. I’ve always said this, if we can package him and get something really nice in return (a true #4 hitter or leadoff hitter), why not do it?
I did a calculation of Bailey’s ERA w/o the Pirates and Brewers games and it was 2.92.
@Karen: Nice work…………….
and that is what he “feels” like to me. A ~ 3.00 – 3.25 ERA guy. Not bad at all for a #4 and heading toward a #3 if he can get rid of those outliers.
To extend the exercise further, if you leave out his first inning of the year, his ERA is 2.48.
Of course, you can’t just “leave out” those games or that inning, but it does show that he has pitched really, really well for large stretches of the year.
I don’t know where the 2.48 comes from. In his first inning of the year he gave up 4 runs. Take that out and you get 3.60.
If you took each pitcher’s bad inning out, you’d have to re-normalize everything. That means that the average pitcher would pitch much better for stretches of the year, which means that Bailey wouldn’t get any better, relatively. It’s not like he had one inning where he gave up 10 runs because the manager said “take one for the team”. He had a rough inning against a great hitting team.
I think it’s great that Bailey has pitched better recently, but he’s got nearly 1 fewer K per game, and 0.3 more BB per game this year compared to last. I think he’s unfairly maligned for this presumed head case stuff, but that he’s given too much credit for luck compared to last year (he was unlucky last year, lucky this year, relative to FIP).
I was adding on to Karen’s exercise showing what Homer’s ERA would be without the two games he gave up 6 ER. I just went on and also subtracted his first inning of the year.
You only have to pull out two games and one inning for Homer to be a 2.48 ERA pitcher. You’re right the norms would be different. I wasn’t comparing Homer to anyone else. I was just showing he has been very good over a lot of his games.
Lets enjoy the ride. It’s pretty fun right now.
If you thought the pitching match-up today gave us a good shot at another sweep, you underestimated Dusty Baker’s ability to create a line-up to even things out. Got to wonder about the start for Willie Harris. It’s not like we need to “get him going” since he’ll like be “going” back to Louisville in a day or two when Stubbs and/or Rolen come back. I hope the Reds win, but …
Cozart SS
Valdez CF
Votto 1B
Phillips 2B
Bruce RF
Cairo 3B
Harris LF
Hanigan C
Cueto P
Instead of giving Harris the start, why not put Frazier in LF?
Who? You mean the enigmatic Todd Frazier?
@Steve Mancuso: Why both Cairo & Harris? One would be a head-scratcher but both is depressing.
But since we are trying to keep a no-negativity zone, I will not comment further.
@Steve Mancuso: Because Baker wants to give us a preview of what’s going to happen when Rolen comes back.
@CharlotteNCRedsFan: You have the right to be negative. Between Harris, Cairo, and Cueto, Dusty is most likely giving away 7-9 outs this game. Throw in Dusty’s penchant for bunting with Valdez, it may approach 11 or so.
It’s simply amazing how this team is winning with some of his decisions. For goodness sake Frazier is young. He can play a lot. Cairo and Harris were signed as bench players, please keep them that way.
@CharlotteNCRedsFan: A 3.00 ERA guy is a #1 starter.
Of course, if you simply pulled out all games where a pitcher didn’t pitch well, then 3.00 ERA would probably be a 5th starter. It’s a useless exercise.
@Steve Mancuso: I keep reading your lineup card and it seems like you forgot to put Frazier on it. Hanigan looks like this lone bright spot in a dead zone of non-hitters. The fact that I feel like the team will be relying on the top of the order getting on base makes me feel sick.
I got MLB.tv for my father for Father’s Day. I hope he doesn’t get sick too.
@Steve Mancuso: I’ve been trying very hard to just ignore Mr. Baker’s antics, even so far as to complement Mr. Baker for possibly having a positive impact on the Red’s performance lately (although I really believe it is the leadership of the players in spite of Mr. Baker), but this is simply Mr. Baker being an ignorant, stubborn old geezer without any consideration for the team, just ‘HIS’ players. Cairo and Valdez and Harris in Mr. Baker’s starting lineup? That goes so far beyond ludicrous as to be criminally negligent. Fire him and send him and his toothpicks out to pasture where he belongs and do it NOW!
@Karen:
A lot of pitchers would have nice looking ERAs if you took away their 2 worst starts.