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The Cincinnati Reds have drafted a high-school pitcher, right-hander Nick Travieso from Archbishop McCarthy HS in Florida (check out the video of Travieso at the link) with the 14th pick of the first round of the MLB draft. He’s a very hard thrower, having purportedly touched 99 mph on the radar gun recently. Here’s the scouting report on Travieso:
Travieso can touch the mid 90s with his fastball, sitting comfortably in the 92-93 mph range, with very good movement in a downward plane. His buries his slider well down in the zone, with good late break to it. His changeup is deceptive at times, though he needs to improve his ability to keep it down in the strike zone.
Like with many young pitchers, he’ll need to refine his command at the next level, but he shows pretty solid presence and instincts on the mound while repeating a clean delivery fairly consistently. The fastball-slider duo alone would be enough for him to excel as a reliever, but he has the chance to develop into more than that down the line.
I’m always nervous about taking a high-school pitcher in the first round, but if he can throw 99? Well, I’m spoiled by Aroldis Chapman into loving the heater.
UPDATE: For what it’s worth, in his final rankings, ESPN’s Keith Law (sub.) had Travieso as the 33rd best prospect available in this year’s draft. You’ll have to go over there to read the entire scouting report, but here’s an excerpt:
Travieso surprised some scouts with a velocity spike this year, peaking at 99 mph, but his inconsistent stuff maddened scouts and has some teams wondering if he’s a starter or reliever long-term.
The rest of the report doesn’t give me the warm fuzzies inside, but what do I know? (Don’t answer that.)
UPDATE 2:
#Reds take another Florida high schooler with the 49th overall pick: OF Jesse Winker.
— Redleg Nation (@redlegnation) June 5, 2012
Keith Law didn’t have Winker in his top 100 pre-draft prospects. The word on Winker is that he has a big bat, with a great approach at the plate…but can’t play a lick of defense. If that’s not the case, don’t blame me; I’ve never seen the kid play. What do you expect from me?
For the record, the Reds have taken a University of Miami commit and a University of Florida commit with their first two picks. Also for the record: use this post as a draft open thread.
UPDATE 3:
OF Jeff Gelalich is taken by the #Reds with the 57th overall pick. First college guy the Reds have taken; Gelalich went to UCLA.
— Redleg Nation (@redlegnation) June 5, 2012
Gelalich is a 6’1″, 205 lb. left fielder. Law had him ranked #37 in his pre-draft top 100. Line-drive hitter, good arm, good defense.
I hope the Reds are not blinded by the groupthink that says everyone has to throw 95.
I don’t think anyone would say that everyone has to throw 95, but a guy throwing 95 out of high school is more likely to become an ace than a guy throwing 87 in high school.
Well, yeah … but stop thinking that all these guys have “ace” written on their contracts.
@Johnu1: Got Leake, Cueto, Arroyo and Corcino. None of those guys pump mid nineties. Cueto can, but he’s more effective at 93 than 96(typically). With your first pick, unless someone is as polished as Leake(there wasn’t when the Reds were picking). I like the pick. Kid has good upside from what I’ve read. I would’ve preferred Giolito, but Travieso is better than Michael Wacha. I think this is a good pick, high upside guy who can take his time in developing. I’m glad that we went high ceiling instead of high floor.
Look for the Redlegs to take a couple of college guys here. Gonna be using a lot of the money on Travieso, unless they chose him because he’d sign underslot. If that’s the case, maybe take a chance on another high school player. But, I’ll stand by the college players. Probably one position player, one pitcher.
Although…if Smoral is around, I wonder if the Reds go after him, seeing the proximity to Cincy and all. Very intriguing.
I’m with others, would’ve much rather seen Luc Giolito, it would’ve been a steal to get a guy like that in the Reds slot. Its all a crap shoot, but Giolito might be another Derek Jeter to the Reds’ Chad Mottola.
The trick is teaching these guys how to develop an out pitch. High school kids all think they have it.
Very much a gamble, HS draft choices. This is the second year in a row for this decision.
I just saw a piece (can’t remember where) that said that there’s been a recent study that refutes that HS players are more risky than the college players when it comes to the draft…anyone else see this?
@Johnu1: Well…I read from some of the big “know” guys, i.e. Keith Law, Jonathan Mayo, that Stephenson wouldn’t have made it to 14 this year. And this Travieso kid seems to have a slider out pitch. I guess the more we take, the higher percentage chance we get one right. So far our only good high school pitching prospect who has made it has been Homer…it’ll be exciting to watch. We don’t have too many rotation spots opening up any time soon, so it makes sense to take guys who may take awhile but have high ceilings.
Jesse Winker. Left Fielder or the future? I like that pick. Good value. Hopefully taking yet another high schooler doesn’t become an issue.
Seems like a lot of teams are going with high school players. I havent compared to last year but seems like a lot.
Wow, a big bat and a guy who can’t play defense … maybe we can trade him and see if we can make a deal for a 34-year-old reserve infielder.
Man, you are cranky. They just drafted some HS outfielder, and you’re killing the guy already?
The Reds just had another guy who could hit some and could not play defense (Alonso), and he was reasonably valuable. If it’s actually true that this kid could really hit and couldn’t play defense, he’d still be valuable. Call me in 5 years, we’ll see.
I am 66 years old with a severe health issue. I ain’t all that concerned about what happens in 5 years.
@Racine Red: Geez, lighten up, dude.
This board really isn’t that informative and to be honest, there are some folks here who aren’t all that friendly. I think I will find other outlets for my Reds fandom.
Thank you all very much.
Solid first three picks. I wonder if there are any signability issues here. Two high school kids, but I don’t know how strong their commitments are. I’m pretty excited about it. Replenish the system. Three players sent packing, three more brought in. Good news.
@Johnu1: Avoid ESPN my friend. That is bad news.
Interesting draft. I like that both the hitters apparently have solid approaches.
Now the Reds just have to sign them.
I don’t have any way to evaluate baseball draft picks. Looking at it from a football standpoint, what on earth did we need with a 4-year project of a RHP? Weren’t there any college level LHP available? But whatever. Baseball. This guy will probably be in the HOF before it’s all said an done and I’ll look like an idiot.
Reds collecting bats for when the DH rule comes to the NL?
Jerrod Parker, one of the centerpieces of the Gio trade, is currently throwing a no-hitter against the Rangers. Yeah, he’s good.
I’m honestly now sure how to feel about this one. Travieso will likely sign since he was taken #14 and will get a large signing bonus. His reported lack of control is disturbing, but the Reds have good pitching coaches in the minors, so that’s something they could definitely help him with. At best, he could develop a few more pitches turn out into that ace the Reds are betting on, at worse there is a decent chance he could be a bust, especially coming out of high school. However, I think the likely scenario is he develops a few good pitches and becomes a decent backend of the rotation pitcher, or a very good reliever. Even though the Reds bullpen is really good now, there is a large turnaround for bullpen talent, and in three to five years, we may just need Travieso’s arm. And if not, he could always serve as a valuable trade chip. Maybe not worth the #14 pick, but I can live with that.
The two outfielders are more intriguing. Winker may or may not sign, I don’t know how committed he is to college. He sounds like an above average hitter, and to quote Billie Beane, “defense doesn’t matter.” OK, yes it does, but that’s something that can be improved in the minors, and putting anyone into the small left corner of Great American helps their defensive numbers. Also, I really think the NL is moving towards the DH eventually, and maybe within this decade. Who knows. At worst, another trade chip assuming we sign him.
My favorite pick by far is Gelalich. With Law putting him at #37 shows that he was a steal, and the Reds got lucky when he fell so far down the board. Not projected to be a superstar, but give him sometime in the minors and I think he’ll be a good addition to the club in the next two to four years. But then again, I’m just random some guy on a web board.
From UCLA webpage:
Player avg gp-gs ab r h 2b 3b hr rbi tb slg% bb hbp so gdp ob%
Gelalich.372 59-59 226 53 84 9 1 11 46 128 .566 32 7 41 4 .462
@MikiLove: Good analysis my man, solid points all around. I like the Travieso pick mostly because of the alternative choices. The only pick I would’ve preferred is Giolito. But with Stephenson in the minors and Travieso being a guy who looks like an innings eater, bulldog type, I’m good with it. There won’t be any open rotation spots for awhile, so we can let a high school lefty develop.
The outfielders are exciting. I’ve read everything you can read on Winker, and some guys call him average defensively with a good to great arm, with gap to gap power and homerun power to his pull side all the way to no defense but huge power potential. The one thing that has been unanimous is that this guy has spectacular work ethic. Last guy we drafted who had projectable-questionable tools but a killer work ethic? Devin Mesoraco. So I like the pick overall.
Gelalich is a killer pick. From the sound of it, good plate discipline and ability to hit. I don’t think the upside is there for Gelalich that there is for Winker, but he’s got a much higher floor. At worst, Gelalich is a platoon, 4th outfielder type. He’d be better than Ludwick right now. Very good pick. Overall solid first round.
@hermanbates: and by high school lefty I mean a high school pitcher. I was thinking about eric’s point on lefty college arms as I was typing that out. I know he’s not a lefty.
What I like best about the analysis on Travieso … “with very good movement in a downward plane.” Hopefully this means he’s a ground ball pitcher.
@CP: Parker was part of the package for Cahill.
I didn’t really like that deal for Oakland. Parker hasn’t actually pitched that great, he’s been lucky. He’s a good prospect and all, but Cahill was signed cheap over a bunch of years, as I remember.
Maybe it will end up working out well for the A’s. He does seem to give up very few homers, and pitching in that park…
@Racine Red: Whoops you’re correct. The Gio trade had Norris, Peacock, and Cole and another guy, can’t remember his name.
I like the Cahill trade, particularly when you view it in conjunction with the Gio trade. But then again, I don’t think too highly of Trevor Cahill. He is a little wild for a guy that doesn’t strike out people. He’s moving from a much less hitter-friendly ballpark into a homerun ballpark. HIs contract and the fact that he’s an extreme groundball pitcher is nice, but he’ll never have the upside that guys like Parker and Peacock have.
I just hope Travieso is not another Homer Bailey.
A significant percentage of first rounders never make it to the majors. Homer is 26 years old and not an abject failure.
I really don’t care for the Travieso pick. If the analysis includes the qualifier of an excellent projection as a reliever, then you shouldn’t be taking him at #14. I was dreading them taking a low ceiling, close to MLB ready college pitcher rather than a high ceiling HS player (position or arm), but it appears we got neither. I hope Travieso is able to further develop his slider and change-up, but I’m not overly optimistic.
That’s how I felt.
He is just now starting to develop his secondary pitches. It is waaaay to early to put a ceiling on him. In fact, I’d say it is silly to put a ceiling on a high schooler with the kind of stuff Travieso has. A college junior would be a different story.
The problem with Travieso is he doesnt fit into BAs or BP’s scouting model very well. The kid doesnt have a lot of data bc he is relatively new to starting. A lot of pitchers in their top 30 have long track records…they’ve been in their radars for years by now. Travieso’s lack of experience is interesting in that its both a positive and a negative…I wonder how many innings a typical top 30 pitcher has on them by the draft?
Maybe the tie breaking vote for Travieso was that he had a hot date for prom. Cue Moneyball scounts: “Ugly g/f means no confidence.”
I’m sorry but unless the kid is a 4 Star can’t miss prospect like that kid in DC, I am not wasting my first pick on a HS kid. At best we will probably not see the fruits if any of him till what like 2016 or 17 at the earliest? I would much rather added a more mature better overall bat from the college level at this point.
@dn4192: I understand your thinking, but this is how I look at it. If you go after a 21 year old college kid, it’ll take him on average three years to get to the majors. So when he does get there, he’s 24, pushing 25. Out of high school, it’ll take on average 5 years to get to the majors, thus making him only 23. You get an extra year or two with these kids from High School. Yonder Alonso was as polished of a bat as there was in the draft we took him, and he wasn’t in the majors until he was 25. Devin Mesoraco is only 23. Jay Bruce is only 25 now, while guys like Tulowitzki and Braun are two to three years older. And the Reds have done a pretty good job drafting since 2004, whether it be college or high school players. And, the Reds did get their college bat in the supp. round in Gelalich.
I am okay with position players coming out of HS, it’s pitchers that I just am not as sold on.
The Reds were not in a great position to draft a college bat. Calles predicted a run on RHPs for.this reason
@hermanbates: That is a really good point. The main problems with high school players are signability and they are more likely to be busts. However, I do like the fact that if they work out, they could be up into the majors as early as 21. Travieso sounds like a work in progress, so he won’t be up for at least another four years, but our pitching is pretty deep so we should be good till then.
OK, the Tanner Rahier pick makes me feel a lot better about the draft.
The new draft rules appear to shift focus towards the HS kids early. Also, its a weak draft so perhaps Reds decided to just err on upside rather than take a relatively weak player @ #14.