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Let’s recap today’s titanic struggle…
FINAL
Cincinnati Reds 5
Pittsburgh Pirates 0
WP: Latos (2-2, 4.93 ERA)
LP: Morton (1-3, 4.61 ERA)
POSITIVES
• While it took Mat Latos a half-inning to realize the calendar had turned from April to May, in his best game of the year, the 24-year-old from Alexandria, VA, struck out eleven (career high), gave up only two hits, and shut out the Pirates over six innings. More of this, please.
• Drew Stubbs scored three of the Reds five runs and got on base four times. His home run (3) drove in Zack Cozart who was clogging the bases after drawing a walk. Stubbs also had a walk, two singles and a stolen base. Someone ought to look into the question of whether there is a correlation between getting on base and scoring runs.
• Todd Frazier (.389, OPS: 1.365) made a solid case for playing time at Louisville with a home run, a double and another hard hit ball to right field that Jose Tabata stuck out his glove and caught on the run. Maybe most importantly, in the first inning, with the bases loaded and one out, Frazier dove to his right to rob Casey McGehee of an extra base hit, saving 2-3 runs. Marty initially announced that Scott Rolen had made the play. Later, Jeff Brantley described it as Rolenesque.
• JJ Hoover, (0.00 ERA) pitching in his hometown of Pittsburgh, continued to look sharp on the mound. He struck out two. The two runners who reached base on him hit routine ground balls. One reached on an error by SS Zack Cozart. The other, a single by Tabata, trickled over second base and barely into CF. Hoover had great command of both his fastball (94 mph) and breaking ball.
• Aroldis Chapman pitched 1.1 clean innings, with 2 Ks. He’s now thrown 14 2/3 innings without giving up a run. He’s allowed five hits. He has struck out 25 and walked only 4. He’s pitched more than 1 innings five times. Look! Up in the sky!
• Reds pitchers struck out the Pirates 17 times.
• Clean-up hitter Brandon Phillips (.215) hit into a double play, but he hit from the right side of the plate.
• Key-situational hitter, Willie Harris (.086) weakly grounded out to 2B, but he hit from the left side of the plate.
• The Reds won the series against the Pirates 2-1 and moved a game back above .500 as they head to Milwaukee for a three-game series.
NEGATIVES
NOT-SO-RANDOM THOUGHTS
• Going into today’s game, Dusty Baker had a 335-339 record (.497) as manager of the Reds. It’s the identical winning losing percentage he had with the Cubs. Baker has managed 18 full seasons in a league of 16 teams and won one league pennant (2002, SF Giants).
• Friend and fellow Reds fan, Tony Liao, points out that with Chapman’s 10 consecutive scoreless appearances he only has 23 more to go to catch Arthur Rhodes.
• Top game thread comment (lookatthathat): Frazier is having himself a baseball game.
Can we start a “Free Frazier” club b4 he gets sent down?
or at least lobby for him to get a first-class ticket to Louisville if he won’t be on the charter to Milwaukee.
Talk to Giants fans and they continue to rip Dusty for his managing late in Game 6 of their World Series against the Angels in 2002. They ended up losing that game and Game 7 as well. Dusty’s never been known for his in-game management.
More Frazier, PLEASE! Might as well find out what we have.
Willie Harris should be glad that no one in the Reds’ office can even spell “D-F-A”.
Home run for Albert Pujols today.
How could this team send Frazier down?
with how bad Heisey, Ludwick, Harris, Valdez, Rolen and Cairo have hit this season how could they send him down?
Valdez would probably have to stay because he can play SS
one thing to think about is not what the above players have done so far but what do we think they are capable of doing.
fangraph’s updates it’s zips projections to include what players have actually done so far this season. This should be a good estimate of where the player will end up
wOBA from ZiPS(U)
.326 Frazier
.318 Heisey and Ludwick
.314 Cairo
.303 Rolen
.276 Harris
.261 Valdez
“JJ Hoover, (0.00 ERA) pitching in his hometown of Pittsburgh, continued to look sharp on the mound. He struck out two. The two runners who reached base on him hit routine ground balls. One reached on an error by SS Zack Cozart. The other, a single by Tabata, trickled over second base and barely into CF. Hoover had great command of both his fastball (94 mph) and breaking ball.” The base hit by Tabata was Hoover’s fault for not properly fielding his position. A very weak grounder right over the pitching rubber with Hoover falling off toward 1st base. I guess Mr. Baker needed to teach him a lesson and show him up since Hoover was pitching in front of friends and family and was pitching VERY well. With a 5 run lead, 2 outs and the pitcher pitching really well, Mr. Baker felt obliged to pull him. I really detest Mr. Baker as a manager (and I use that term loosely)!!!
Booooooy, after Latos pegged the first batter he faced and then walked the bases loaded in the 1st I was ready to just unload on him and Walt and and Castellini and anyone who happened to look at my sideways this afternoon. But he showed us what we traded all of that talent away for today, and it was something to see. He easily could have gone out for the 7th but it was a smart move to get the bullpen some work. I don’t understand bringing Chapman in for the 3rd out of the 7th, though. His spot was due up 4th in the next inning and I was actually praying for Hanigan to get out so that we wouldn’t have to pinch run for him. Basically the plan was to use Chapman for one batter and it just so happened we squeaked into a chance to use him for a an extra inning. All of this after he through what, 3 innings in the last 2 weeks. That’s $35 million well spent right there.
Otherwise, thoroughly enjoyable game. Cozart looks like a 10 year vet, Jay Bruce still looks like he could really turn on the jets and get in the MVP conversation, Drew Stubbs looks like a bonafide big league hitter who belongs at the top of the order, I don’t know how on earth anyone could justify sending Todd Frazier down to AAA the day after he has a game like this at the plate and on the field, and we simply have the best bullpen in baseball and it isn’t really close.
Does it seem to anyone like Joey isn’t seeing the ball that well this season? I see him taking a lot more pitches than he usually does. In the past he was waiting for the pitch he wanted, but this season he’s watching strike 3 an inordinate amount. Not too worried, because if anyone can fix a problem like that through insane batting practice sessions, it’s Joey Votto. But also, we’re still not doing him any favors with the #4 spot. BP is clearly in a funk, and I know he’ll get out of it and start hitting well again, but there’s no reason he has to do it in the cleanup spot. He’s shown he can bat all over the lineup and have success. No real reason to mess with 1-3 right now, but if you just swapped Bruce and Phillips (Suggesting Jay Bruce bat cleanup? Really going out on a limb here, fellas…) then we could stop taking the bat out of Joey’s hands in critical situations. Plus I think it will help BP with a little less pressure.
I think you answered your own question later by saying he’s being done no favors by the clean-up situation… Joey is seeing the ball fine. He’s OBP is .450
w/26 Walks. He sees the ball plenty well, he just doesn’t see a lot to hit.
What a difference starting pitching makes. The Pirates had no chance against Cueto on Friday and they had no chance against Latos today.
Otherwise, just the usual stuff from me. PLEASE don’t send down Frazier, he upgrades the bench from horrible to not so bad (just need a LHed bat).
And after Bray regains form and returns, move Chapman to the starting rotation. Realistically, the Reds management won’t do it before then, even though the bullpen has improved since Hoover replaced Bray.
And yes Bruce should be hitting cleanup.
After reading the game thread today, a question:
Is this “Redleg Nation” or have I somehow been redirected to the “I Hate Dusty Baker” home page.
I say this while the team has:
come from 4-8 to 14-13 over the last 2+ weeks (10 out of 15)
come from 5 back of the cards to 2.5 back in that same period
won 5 straight series
a 2.66 ERA over the previous 14 games before today
dropped their season’s ERA from 4.15 to 3.37 over that span
pitched a combined shutout today, thus lowering each of the above numbers
over those same 14 games the offense has produced .257/.328/.447/.775
raising the season’s numbers from .211/.274/.314/.588 to .236/.303/.385/.688
It is laughable to listen to the constant grinding of axes against baker given the present results. Anyone who looks at this season with an objective eye sees that the Reds were hitting .211/.274/.314/.588 over those first 12 games– your beloved Sparky Anderson wouldn’t have won more than 4 games either with those numbers– and over the next 15 with still low offensive output have produced a .667 pace…
….667 ring a bell with anyone?
The 75 Reds finished at .667. With HOFers at 5 positions (yeah, I know that Bench, Morgan and Perez are the only ones in the Hall, but Rose is a HOFer and “Concepcion’s exclusion from the HOF is the single greatest injustice in HOF history” –Keith Olbermann). Anyone see 5 in their prime HOFers out their today?
Some people need to try watching the game and appreciating the results, rather than spending their every waking hour finding ways to criticize Dusty. It’s really quite tiresome …
Well said.
Just read Fay’s column of how Dusty isn’t going to bat Bruce cleanup. The reasons were not hard to guess. Two lefties in a row is a NO-NO and Bruce hasn’t proven himself to be an RBI guy yet. Good grief.
On the positive side, Dusty said that Cairo’s return for the Brewer series is not a “lock”. Cairo went 0-10 at Dayton with 0 walks. Bringing him up right now and sending Frazer down would be insanity.
@67stats33eyes: The Reds ARE doing well, and I for one am pleased. They have gone 4-0-1 in their last 5 series.
The most important moves I would like to see made depend primarily on WJ, not Dusty.
For good measure I’ll throw in that I’ve liked Dusty’s handling of the bullpen, ever since Bray went down.
PS And I liked today’s lineup, felt confident when I read it.
@Matt WI: I mean I get it – he knows he’s getting pitched around more so he’s trying to get more BB’s. Which he is, obviously, and it’s driving up his OBP. At the same time, he’s not swinging as much and it’s hurting his RBI numbers. It’s not like no one’s EVER giving him stuff to hit. I think he might just be over compensating. But whatever…I think I’ll defer to Joey’s judgement.
Here’s a perfect example of the lengths people go to hate Dusty:
It was suggested that if Baker managed the ’75 Reds that Geronimo would have been the lead off hitter and Concepcion the 2 hole hitter.
So let’s follow that premise logically. If the contention would be true, than the inverse would also be true (That’s the way logic works). So…
Today Baker should be batting:
–lead off hitter his 13 year vet, 2500 hit, 6 time 200 hit (at that time), career .310/.379/.432/.810 lead off hitter who had .392 OBP over his last 7 years
–2nd hitter would be the fastest guy on the team, a very young player who had produced .288/.357/.419/.776 over his first 348 PAS
–3rd hitter would be a player who had been labelled a head case over his first 9 years in the majors before being acquired by the reds. with the reds he had produced .291/.416/.474/.890 along with an avg of 30 2B, 21 HR, 74 RBI, 61 SB, and 115 BB over his first three years with the reds
– 4th hitter would be a 6 year under achiever who had produced .246/.303/.394/.697 with 27 HR and 125 RBI in his first 1000 PAs at age 26
– 5th hitter would be a 8 year in a row 90 RBI guy with a .285/.348/.485/.833 line and 238 HR and 915 RBI
– 6th hitter would be a .270/.340/.483/.823, 8 yr veteran, with 212 HR and 745 RBI
So, please point out who on the present day Reds fits these profiles.
You’ve missed the point completely. Nobody is claiming Dusty has the ’75 Reds to work with. The point I was making is that Dusty’s lineup doesn’t maximize his team’s offensive production because he pays too much attention to irrelevant factors such as righty/lefty and what position a guy plays. He’s got the guy with the third highest OBP of all the regulars in the #8 slot simply because he’s a catcher. Doesn’t matter if you’re managing the ’75 Reds or the ’12 Reds — that makes NO sense. He’s got his best two hitters separated by a guy who’s slumping badly, simply because he refuses to have two lefties back-to-back. Doesn’t matter what team you’re managing — that makes NO sense. He puts guys at the top of the order simply because they’re centerfielders and pays no attention to whether they’re actually getting on base. Doesn’t matter who you’re managing – it makes NO sense.
No, I didn’t miss the point, I don’t agree with the point.
First, the point fails in being objective. Your inference was that baker would start a line-up that didn’t ‘maximize his team’s production’, yet you fail to point out that Anderson didn’t start a line-up that ‘maximized his team’s production’ as I pointed out above– Morgan as lead off, Rose as the three, Bench as the four would have produced more runs. So Baker failed in your eyes, but if you are objective, you would have to admit that Anderson failed as well.
Second, you make a tremendous leap with the assumpton that Hannigan would produce the same numbers in the two hole as he does in the 8 hole. Hitting in front of the pitcher certainly is a different dynamic in terms of obp than hitting anywhere else– in short, he gets more walks because there is no reason to fear the batter behind him (much like votto in the three hole).
Third, Your point is shortsighted, it in no way addresses the big picture, in no way addresses player development. Ask yourself, is it better in the long run to have Hannigan towards the top of the order or Cozart and Stubbs? Hannigan is going to be replaced by Mesoroco eventually, choosing to experiment with Hannigan rather than give the reps to a kid who will be here long term makes no sense and retards the development of those kids.
Fourth, who else are you going to use? As you have pointed out Hannigan has the third highest OBP on the team. So with Votto and Bruce in the 3 and 4, and Hannigan in the two, who’s your one? eliminating Stubbs and Cozart you are left with Phillips, Rolen, and Heisey/Ludwick. So who else do you put at the top of the order?
@67stats33eyes: I think I’d agree with your assessment on most levels except the BRM wasn’t going to hit this poorly for one very good reason — a batting coach and hitting philosophy that worked. In a phrase, a lot of what we consider a “slump” is corrected before it becomes a problem.
I remember a Saturday game of the week in either 75 or 76 when the Reds were on and they showed a picture of Big Klu and Garagiola (sp?) said ‘that Klu had the easiest job in America– batting coach for the BRM’.
The idea that Klu made the Reds into the hitters they were seems highly unlikely to me. Look at it this way, what’s harder teaching hitting to the BRM or to the present day team?
Jacoby isn’t working with Perez, Rose, Bench, Morgan, Foster and Griffey, he’s working with Heisey, Ludwick, Stubbs, Hannigan and Phillips. There is really no comparison.
Is there any chance the Reds would send Heisey down and keep Frazier?
Isn’t this akin to shooting yourself in the foot so your sore thumb feels better?
Is this some kind of sick joke?
Dusty might be tempted but I doubt Walt would let him.
…and not to commit complete blasphemy, but…
Let’s look at the 75 REDS and Anderson’s management of said team.
1) Playing bench guys in front of stars. Driessen- 249 PAs, Rettenmund- 226 PAs, Plummer- 189 PAs, Chaney- 175 PAs, Flynn- 143 PAs —
2) Using relievers in a manner that seems less than prudent. Eastwick 58app/90inn, Borbon 67/125, Carrol 56/96, McEnneny 71/90
3) And what about that batting order?
Morgan had a .466 OBP and 67 SBs in ’75 with only 17 HR and 94 RBI (94 RBI with a .406 and .391 One/Two in front of him?). C’mon guys, Morgan should have been the lead off hitter not the 3 hitter, right?
Bench had higher numbers for RBI, HR and OBP than either of Foster or Perez, why didn’t he bat 4th?
Rose was .409/.512/.591/1.103 with runners in scoring position, why on earth wasn’t he the three hole hitter? He was clearly wasted in the lead off spot, right? Especially when you consider that with no one on base he produceda line of .294/.379/.392/.771.
My point: If you don’t call them both ways then your criticism is not valid.
The success of the bullpen hinges on how the manager uses the bullpen. Given the ridiculously low ERA we have seen from the relief staff over the last few series has as much to do with their talent as Baker and the staff does with using them.
That being said, it’s a managerial farce that we have two time bombs in the rotation and the 35 million dollar golden goose pitching less than I did in middle school.
@67stats33eyes: I’d say when a Dusty Baker team goes 108-54, we can compare the two teams.
@67stats33eyes: There are people who blame the late 70′s decline of the Reds on Sparky’s having overused the bullpen arms in 1975 and 1976. I think it was more that the starting rotation lost Gullet to free agency and that every pitcher who even mentioned free agency – such as Nolan and Eastwick – got traded. The Reds thought they had a cure for all that in trading for Tom Seaver in 1977 but in that they traded away Pat Zachry to get him, they didn’t add depth, and the lack of pitching depth was the problem.
Sparky was fired after the Reds “only” won 95 games in 1978.
They won 92 in 1978. If they had won 95 the Reds would have been looking at a 1 game playoff with the Dodgers. But your point was well taken. Talk about a ridiculous firing. John McNamara got a raw deal in 1982 as well. The Reds win more games than anyone in 1981 and let everyone go to free agency and Tom Seaver gets injured. McNamara is fired in half a season.
@Bill Lack: Yes. That could happen. I don’t see the benefit overall, at least as a casual observer.
Reds fans used to complain about Sparky all the time. Too much of a players’ manager, people said. And if he were managing now, there’d be plenty of complaints. Sparky had a self-criticism: I manage too much with my heart and not enough with my head.
@Bill Lack: I would hope not.
@pinson343: Overuse of the bullpen was not just Sparky. All teams did the same thing in the 70s unless they had Bruce Sutter. Lots of reasons for the decline and it’s hard to pinpoint one — Reds never did have great pitching, even with the BRM. Good enough when you score 5 runs a game.
@Johnu1: Sparky was known as Captain Hook, but you’re right, that was mainly due to the Reds having starting pitchers (other than Gullet) who could not go deep into games.
Legendary teams become legends over time. In the mid-70′s, a lot of people felt their starting rotation was average at best and the Reds were therefore not a great team. The starting rotation was actually a little better than average, but not much.
@Johnu1: And 5 runs a game back then was a huge number.
I wonder how good Latos would have been today if he hadn’t been sick.
“Going into today’s game, Dusty Baker had a 335-339 record (.497) as manager of the Reds. It’s the identical winning losing percentage he had with the Cubs. Baker has managed 18 full seasons in a league of 16 teams and won one league pennant (2002, SF Giants).
And the Reds have exactly 1 Pennant in the last 36 years. How many managers have been a part of that failure?
@jmt5887: Being sick may have helped him, who knows. BTW he said he was under the weather after his most recent start, so something’s been bothering him for a while.
More on the BRM: The greatness of the Reds’ starting lineup was recognized in the mid-70s. They were called “The Great Eight”.
The degree of awe in which the ’75 Reds are held today is reflected in that – during the week of the Fenway Park Centennial – on mlbnetwork former Red Sox greats were saying that the greatest Red Sox team EVER was the 1975 team. Their having played the Reds to a 7 game series was regarded as evidence of this.
@Truman48: Right the Reds were a very good team thru 1981 and then the idiot Dick Wagner traded Foster and Griffey Sr. to NY for no one. Trading Ray Knight and moving Bench to 3rd base also did not work out. As you say, in 1981 the Reds had more wins than anyone – in 1982 they had 101 losses, the most in the NL and just 1 less than the Twins, who had the most in the majors.
@pinson343: What? Are you saying Alex Trervino was not a great player?
By the way, Bryce Harper can play this game!! Wow.
@pinson343: We look at the great teams under different microscopes. How good was the pitching for the 1927 Yankees? Hard to tell because of the hitting. Same with the BRM. The pitching was good enough. But nobody wants another history lesson on that team. Where I go now is with the current team that seems to have enough potential to be competitive toward the end. What I don’t see is a commitment to that process as I understand it. The Reds have a “great 8″ now … just put them on the damned field and stop playing ping pong with the batting order.
@Johnu1: Actually the 1927 Yankees had an outstanding starting rotation, the best of them picked up (along with Ruth) from the Red Sox. But enough history for today. I believe the 2012 Reds will contend. It will help if management makes certain moves that don’t even require a trade.
@pinson343: Could be on the ’27 Yanks … I didn’t see them play despite what my friends insinuate.
For the Reds to contend this year, they need to evaluate their hitting philosophy.
Pitching seems to have come around, so maybe Price is better than I gave him credit for being.
Well you can tell at least one big difference between the ex-Brave team mates Davey Johnson and Dusty, there is no way Dusty fills out a lineup card with a 19 year old Harper batting 3rd in his world.
This isn’t about the Reds, but can we talk about the AL and NL East? This is how I feel about it: http://www.nous3.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/upside-down-house-germany-1.jpg
@67stats:………Yes, the Reds have bounced back from a horrendous start. But I don’t see how that exonerates Dusty Baker from some managerial decisions that appear to me to have cost the Reds more opportunities.
Take yesterday. Despite some bad breaks (how in god’s name did tabata catch that ball? and Votto was safe at home), the Reds had a decent shot at coming back until Dusty left Leake in for the seventh inning, despite a bullpen coming off a complete game by Cueto and a day off before that. His decision-making about how long to go with a starting pitcher can be costly.
And more generally, if you have a guy who is clearly struggling — raise your hand, Willie Harris — and you have a guy who is clearly raking at the plate — that’s you, Todd Frazier — then it would be OK to use Frazier or even Heisey or somebody else off the bench to pinch hit instead of Harris, even if the opposing pitcher throws with his right arm……Granted, it might be more to Walt’s discredit than Dusty’s that Harris is still here, but just because he is, that doesn’t mean he has to be the first option at “high-leverage” times. The guy needs to go on a hitting streak just to get on the so-called “interstate.”
If the other stuff about Sparky or the Big Red Machine or whatever goes overboard, maybe so. But it ain’t like Dusty doesn’t throw lots of ammo to critics for his managing style….
In close games, when he really starts pulling levers and pushing buttons, his moves leave him wide open to criticism. The Reds seem to lose a lot of games in those situations.
@RichmondRed: And as the termites turn, I’d guess that what you see is not exactly what you will get.
@RichmondRed: But if you have a good enough relief pitcher, all things are possible.
Go Baldy!
At PNC again today with much better results than last night.
I don’t care if I ever seen another Matt Latos start. I could cook a ten course meal in the time he takes between pitches. He could make perfect game boring.
I could live with today’s line-up every single game.
The Pirates have little offense. Without McCutchen in the line-up, they have NO offense.
Absolutely beautiful day for baseball in Pittsburgh today!
“No, because I want to break up them lefties,” Baker said. “Plus, Jay’s hitting well and hitting home runs, but he’s still got to improve on driving in runs himself.” – Dusty Baker. When asked if Jay Bruce might move up to the clean-up spot in the order.
Question: would Baker have broken up Ruth & Gehrig because they were both left-handed batters?
That’s Dusty running his mouth and that’s me throwing up in my mouth.
@RichmondRed: Great photo. Along the lines of a serious reply, I don’t think the Nats fast start is a fluke, I expect them to contend, along with the Marlins. Don’t know what to make of the Braves. The Phils have gotten old, people think they’ll pick it up when Howard and Utley return, but when will that be and how will they play ?
I don’t know the AL East that well. The Rays are solid with their rotation. I assume the Birds will fade. The Yankees offense will keep them in it. The Red Sox pitching is abominable, maybe they’d like to have Bronson back ?
Good managing: I was at the Cubs vs Dodgers game on Saturday. Bottom of the 9th inning, up 5-0 against the Cubbies and the Dodgers are cruising. Jamey Wright was in for the mop up on a cold, windy day. But, Mattingly had his stud set-up man, Kenley Jansen warming up. In the Reds case, that would be Dusty having Aroldis up and ready to go in those conditions. Never would have happened. Just found that a nice little piece of attention to detail and being prepared.
Today Chapman was warmed up, ready and came on to record the 3rd out of the Pirates 7th with the Reds leading 5-0 but the Pirates having men on first and third and their #3 hole hitter coming to the plate.
Maybe Dusty was having a bad day at being Dusty…..
@Matt WI: Dusty could be right though… I mean 6 out of Jay’s 8HR’s on the season have been of the solo variety. That’s totally his fault. Who is this kid, Adam Dunn Jr?
How many of those solo home runs were with 2 out? (I was gonna say, how many with the bases empty, but … oh well)
In any case, a solo home run with 2 outs is not as much an accident as would appear. You pitch to a power hitter with 2 out, none on. Sometimes, he connects.
@Johnu1: Only one of the six was with 2 outs. Four with no outs, one with one out. What I can’t quite filter is how many times he was leading off an inning.
What does Dusty Baker do to help this team win?
What does he do for Joey Votto that puts Votto in a position to maximize his abilities?
Why does Jay Bruce have so many solo home runs?
What does Dusty do to put Votto and Bruce in RBI situations?
Are any other players on this team capable of providing protection for Votto or Bruce?
Why aren’t the two best hitters on the team allowed to bat next to one another to provide some protection for the one in front of him?
Does Dusty Baker have a “my way or the highway” mentality or does he listen to the advice of others? If so, then who?
What am I missing that we as paying customers think we see that would improve the chances of our favorite team winning that a paid professional seemingly does not?
Would a different viewpoint in the chain of command make a difference and enhance the team or depress the team?
Is this organization really all in for this year now that Votto is signed long term and not on a limited time window?
What does Dusty do that enhances the talent of this team and takes them to a new level?
Just asking? Trying not to be so critical.
Let’s hear it………..
@George Culver: I suppose the only ongoing answer is maybe we need to be careful what we wish for. Again, I just think the philosophy is stale. This team isn’t dictated by the “veteran-y” players now … the veterans are all in their 20s. Dusty’s notions about baseball aren’t wrong but IMHO, they don’t fit this team.
@Matt WI: I’d guess that over a season, it’s probably about the same for all batting order spots to lead off an inning. But no doubt, our cleanup spot has been dreadful this year and Bruce is paying for it.
@George Culver: You’re missing the nightmares Dusty has of Votto and Bruce batting back to back and some LOOGY striking them out on 6 pitches with the bases loaded and the Reds 1 run down in the 8th inning or later….
Or maybe your missing that Dusty wants ther front office to quit dancing around the issue like they have for the last 18 months and go out and get him a legitimate RH bat to hit between Votto and Bruce.
to expand on your excellent point…
This goes for a lot of the issues that have been expressed today against baker. You don’t know who decided that Willie Harris will be on the team– Baker? Jocketty? Baker and Jocketty? These two guys do not sell each other out and we don’t know how the decision was made. Same for Frazier. Same for Valdez. Anyone who pins the roster choices on Baker has no basis to do so.
It’s been longer than 18 months. Before Votto/Bruce, it was Junior/Dunn/Casey with a season of Hamilton thrown in there.
In the last decade the only RH “cleanup”-type hitters for the Reds have been: 1 good year from Kearns, some Rich Aurilia moments, a few league average-ish years from EE, 4 great months from Rolen, and for some reason BP (thanks Naron).
This is the lineup I would love to see the Reds use 75% of the rest of the year:
2B Phillips
SS Cozart
1B Votto
3B Frazier
RF Bruce
C Hannigan
LF Ludwick
CF Stubbs
Phillips has had success leading off, Cozart was going good hitting second, Frazier has some power and is a right handed bat and if pitchers keep pitching around Votto, Frazier can make them pay. Stubbs can get on to be bunted around by pitchers, Hannigan can hit behind Bruce and maybe get driven in by Ludwick and/or Stubbs occasionally.
Who’s with me?
@67stats33eyes:
Proving that Sparky made some mistakes as a manager doesn’t make Dusty’s mistakes any less glaring. There’s just no getting around the simple fact that Sparky understood you put your high OBP guys near the top of the order, even if they’re not the speediest guys on the team. In anyone’s wildest dreams, would Dusty ever allow a guy with average speed who plays third base to lead off for an entire season? It’s impossible to imagine. Sparky wasn’t perfect, but the fact that he didn’t have Rose hitting 6th or 7th puts him in a completely different class than Dusty.
I’m not going to bother addressing all of your points, because you clearly don’t know what you’re talking about. Let’s just take the Hanigan point. He has a high OBP because he’s great at making contact. He has one of the lowest swing-and-miss percentages in the league. He has only 5 walks this season. His batting average is third highest among the regulars, and that’s DESPITE hitting in front of the pitcher, meaning he’s having to hit some bad pitches. I dare say that if he had Votto and Bruce behind him, his batting average would be even higher. He’s also the best hit-and-run guy on the team, but he bats 8th, usually behind guys who don’t steal bases. His talents are NOT being utilized properly. Not even close.
And that’s just one example. Just the tip of the iceberg. That doesn’t even get us into the constant misuse of Bruce, BP, Rolen, Heisey, Harris, Frazier, etc. Other than hitting Votto third, I’m not sure Dusty routinely has ANYONE hitting in the right spot, and that’s on top of the fact that often the wrong people are playing.
Dusty claims his platoon in left is based on “match ups.” Interesting, then, that BOTH players are well below their career averages. So, how are those match ups working out? Classic case of a manager thinking he’s very clever but actually making the situation worse. And what makes him REALLY bad is that he’s unwilling to admit mistakes, so he’ll stick with his bad decisions long after it’s obvious to the rest of us that it isn’t working.
@George Culver: here’s some things that I see:
Baker is patient. Each year we see a situation where his patience with a player pays off. He doesn’t make decisions based on now, he manages the long game. Take Stubbs, do the Reds win when Stubbs hits? definitely. Thus Baker continues to be patient with Stubbs, because in the big picture, the Reds are a better team with Stubbs on it.
Baker gives everyone a chance to play — and every year we see how non starters produce– Cairo, Nix, Hannigan, etc. are examples of what Baker’s philosophy yields.
Baker carries himself like a professional– he and Jocketty do not snipe at each other, most of what goes on is not public knowledge.
Baker’s players love him. Don’t believe me? Go find a single ex-Baker player who bad mouths him. Can you say that about Larussa? ask Rolen. Pinella? ask Oneil.
Baker has turned this team over during his tenure– even though you read on every Reds blog that he doesn’t play rookies. Votto, Bruce, Cozart, Hannigan, Cueto, Bailey, Ondrusek, Chapman, Massett, Lecure, Leake, Heisey and Stubbs have all (all 13) made their ML debuts or have established themselves as big leaguers during his tenure.
Baker gets veterans to play better– Gomes, Phillips, Arroyo, Hernandez all had their best years under him.
Baker doesn’t panic. He maintains the same demeanor no matter what happens. He doesn’t rant and rave for the press, he doesn’t sell out his boss or his players.
…these are a few of the things I see that many refuse to acknowledge.
I got to admit after tagging on Dusty (who I think is probably a bro, even though he does some goofy stuff with his starters and bullpen), I checked out where he put Jay B. after calling him up.
He did bat him 2nd and then 3rd like in game six of BruUUUCes career. That was a Reds club already mired in in the doldrums going nowhere, but he ‘did’ bat him in a key spot early, so I got to shutup some.
Got to say, I’m not sure putting Bruce at #2 doesn’t sound bad to be right now. (Keep the youngster at short going lead off.)
I’d love to see Stubbs step up and become the clean up dude, but everytime he gets into one of the marquee batting lineup places he takes strike two and looks like a deer on Indiana State Road 45 in the middle of August.
Billy Hamilton
New York Times
http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/05/05/the-name-and-speed-to-revive-the-steal/
@zippy: I clearly don’t know what I’m talking about?
Really…
So let’s take that one point that you decided to address. Hannigan. You contend that Hannigan ‘has a high OBP because he’s great at making contact’.
Hannigan– BA for his Career is .275, his OBP is .370 — how is that mediocre batting avg the driving force for his excellent OBP?
year by year–
team–
12- 3rd in OBP, 4th in BA
11- 3rd in OBP, 7th in BA
How does all of that contact he makes justify these numbers? If the driving force in his OBP is contact then how come he ranks higher in OBP than avg?
if you were to project his career numbers over 162 games he bats .275 and has an OBP of .370. Last year those numbers would have a MLB rank (qualified) of 72nd in avg, 24th in OBP– again, if contact is why he’s a high OBP guy, then why the disparity in ranking? the difference is clearly in what he does outside of contact.
Also, his 162 game projection for BBs is 65. 65 walks in 2011 (qualified) would have ranked him 37th. 72nd in avg and 37th in walks– again, a disparity that does not support your thesis.
And on the subject of OBP and contact hitting (over the last three years)–
’11 — 24 players had .370 OBPs (qualified)– 21 of 24 had 79 or more Ks — 17 had 88 or more — 10 had 100 or more —
’10 — 28 players had .370 OPS — 25 of 28 had 76 Ks or more — 22 had 91 or more — 15 had 102 or more
’09 — 46 had .370 OBP — 40 of 46 had 71 Ks or more — 33 had 90 or more — 26 had 100 or more
So generally speaking, the vast majority of players with superlative OBP are not contact hitters.
Of course, you can rely on his 5 walks in 59 plate appearances instead of numbers projected using his career numbers but that would be highly suspect. So since almost all of these numbers point to high OBP not being driven by contact hitting, I wonder if it’s me who doesn’t know what he’s talking about.
First indication that you don’t know what you’re talking about is that you don’t know how to spell the player’s name.
Second indication is that you ask how a player’s OBP can be higher than his average if the driving force in the OBP is the average. That’s like asking how it’s possible for Ohio’s population to be greater than the population of its cities if most people in Ohio live in cities. It’s called “math.”
Third indication is that you’re using career statistics instead of noticing what’s actually happening on the field this season. That’s EXACTLY the sort of thing I’m criticizing Dusty for doing. He’s been acting as if Rolen is a .281 hitter with power. He’s acting as if Brandon Philips is slugging .432 and not the guy who has one double this season. He’s acting as if Ludwick is hitting his career .259, and he’s acting as if Willie Harris is actually a major league player.
One of Dusty’s biggest problems is that he’s incredibly slow to notice fairly obvious trends. It’s the “we’ve got to get so-and-so going” mentality. Every once in a while his “patience” (which I would call “stubbornness” or “failure to notice trends”) will eventually pay off because so-and-so will actually get better, but for every one example of that, I can give you two or three examples where it’s done more damage than good. BP might wind up being a good cleanup hitter before the end of the season, but right now he shouldn’t be hitting between Votto and Bruce. Rolen might end the season with a higher average than Frazier, but right now Frazier should clearly be starting the majority of games. Harris might somehow manage to get his average up to .238 by the end of the year, but right now the team would be far better off if Leake were used as a pinch hitter in key situations and Harris were used only as a last resort. And so on. Practically everyone who watches these games is aware that Harris being left handed isn’t helping him reach base, but Dusty is one of the few people who refuses to acknowledge it.
Hanigan is great at making contact. He’s been getting better and better at it, and now he’s great at it. He’s also very good at hitting to the right side when the situation calls for it, which doesn’t always get him on base, but moves a guy from 2nd to 3rd. Ludwick and Rolen aren’t nearly as good as they used to be, and BP is clearly struggling right now. Anyone who watches on a regular basis should be aware of these things, and creating a lineup based on lifetime stats or expectations about long-term performance or a player’s speed isn’t the way to maximize the team’s offensive efficiency every day. And if anything, Baker’s problem is that he refuses to use stats of any sort, and just makes up his lineup based on his “gut feeling” or arbitrary rules like “centerfielders should lead off” or “you can’t have two lefties back-to-back” or “guys who walk are clogging the bases.”
Also, Hannigan’s BABIP is .296 for his career– over the last 3 years there are 147 players (qualified) who have an equal or better BABIP than does Hannigan. So I am not sure he actually even counts as a high contact guy.
So far this year, there are 10 lead off hitters (qualified) with OBP of .339 or higher. The other 12 Qualified hitters have OBP of .321 or less, 11 of .312 or less.
Which then begs the question:
Are the 22 teams that are leading off .321 or less guys managed by idiots, too?
And before you say it….
I do more or less understand the point you were making about Hanigan’s OBP compared to average, but it’s so convoluted that I simply refuse to get into the numbers. He’s a great contact hitter – period. If you can’t see that just by watching the games, then you have no business discussing this stuff. He also happens to be good at drawing walks. This doesn’t make him less qualified to hit higher in the order, it makes him more qualified. I’m not sure what difference it makes whether he ranks higher on the team in OBP or batting average over the past three seasons, but I know it doesn’t mean the guy with the team’s 3rd highest OBP THIS YEAR (who’s also the team’s best hit-and-run guy) should be hitting 8th THIS YEAR.
One– if his OBP is what it is BECAUSE he is batting 8th then he should definitely be hitting 8th.
Two– and if that’s how you would run the team, then what do you do at the 90 PA point in the season when the order of OBP is different change the line-up again? Or do you fill up your line-up card daily based on that day’s OBPs? Is that what you would do?
I definitely remember Baker being patient with Willy Taveras, Corey Patterson and Orlando Cabrera. He patiently has managed the Reds to a below .500 record for four-plus years. He patiently managed the Reds to massive under-achievement last year.
As long as we can play the Pirates, Cubs and Astros every series we’ll be fine this year. Don’t worry.
@zippy: that’s about four times that you have told me I don’t know what I am talking about. Is that the way you talk to everybody who has a different viewpoint than you? Because there are actually no right answers, just opinions on all of this. The point is we are having a discussion about baseball and every time you answer a reasonably factually supported argument with “I am not going to address that because you obviously don’t know what you are talking about” you haven’t done anything to further your argument and you have actually strengthened mine.
…and two more things:
One, the very idea that you think 59 ABs is a better indicator for a 31 year old ball player than his career numbers shows me that you started with a premise and are simply going to simply attack my intelligence rather than my points and continue to shout your premise. No one who is objective would choose to use the 59 ABs.
The point that you refer to as being convoluted is this: Everyone’s obp is driven by average to some extent that’s a given, but your contention that his OBP is high because of contact and not walks would be true if his BA ranked higher league wide and his obp ranked lower league wide. That’s exactly the opposite of reality. How convoluted is that?
Please continue to name call, ad hominem attack and snark.
67stats33eyes (catchy name, by the way),
That’s the way I respond to people who go out of their way to say things like: “Here’s a perfect example of the lengths people go to hate Dusty….” and then quote something I said about Dusty having Geronimo leading off. Now, was it REALLY necessary to argue that point? Did you REALLY have to attack what I’d said (in a different thread, no less) just to make the point that you think Dusty is a fantastic manager? Are you REALLY going to be able to prove that I’m wrong about what Dusty would have done with the ’75 Reds lineup? No. So who’s needlessly attacking whom, and then pretending to be a victim of an out-of-the-blue personal attack?
As to your “points” about Hanigan: As I said, if you can’t see that he’s a great contact hitter just by watching the games, then you have no business talking about this stuff. None of the stats you’ve come up with suggest in any way, shape, or form that Hanigan isn’t a great contact hitter, isn’t great at hitting to the right side when it needs to be done, and isn’t a great hit-and-run guy.
If you want to use lifetime stats, then use them for ALL players, not just Hanigan. And now you’re stuck arguing that Rolen should be the everyday cleanup hitter, Ludwick should be the everyday left fielder, Jay Bruce and his .235 career average against lefties should probably be platooning (but not with Heisey and his .188 career AVG against lefties — Heisey should NEVER be allowed to face a lefty), and Willie Harris is a legitimate major league player. Now, should we really rely on those lifetime stats, or should we rely on what we’ve all seen so far this year? I’ll go with the visual evidence, and I’m convinced Hanigan is a great contact hitter, has a better shot at getting on base than most of the other guys in the lineup, and shouldn’t be hitting 8th on THIS team THIS year unless several other players really get hot. I think it’s absolutely indefensible to have him 8th, and, I’m sorry if it hurts your feelings, but anyone who goes out of his way to attack something I said about Dusty and then attempts to defend the indefensible is probably going to hear something negative from me.
The above didn’t exactly work like I wanted. My comments start with “I don’t intend ….”
On this date in history:
2010: Miguel Cairo collected his third hit of the season raising his numbers to .160/.160/.200/.360. Reds Fans screamed for Cairo to be DFA’d on every blog having anything remotely to do with the Reds.
Baker/Jocketty ignored posters everywhere and were patient.
Cairo finishes .290/.353/.410/.763 in 226 PAs and is a significant producer in the playoff season.
I’m sure many of you criticizing Baker today were wrong about that one, too.
Amen to that – I hope Latos realized that he was not facing the Cardinals yesterday.
Dusty simply strikes me as someone who values his gut reaction over his head. He feels some sort of empathy for Harris or Taveras, for example, and that translates into his mind’s eye ring able to spot talent where others cannot. He then projects that his gut feeling (since he claims to “know” a lot more about baseball than the rest of us) will play out and that he’ll eventually be proven an above-average evaluator of talent.
Apologies to Freud or Jung or whoever. Thanks for great reporting here. I appreciated the humor speckled about the post.
And that’s too bad. It should not be about a manager’s ego.
@Johnu1: And my response would be this: If it’s a duckling you can turn it into a duck, if it’s a puppy it’s a lot harder to get it to quack. Talent is where most of baseball success comes from. At this moment do you have any doubt that the BRM guys were more talented than the present day reds?
That’s my point. It’s a lot easier to get Hall of Fame level talent to hit than it is to get borderline ML talent to hit. Klu got to coach stars, Jacoby hopefuls, do you really disagree with the idea that jacoby’s job is harder?
@67stats33eyes: Hopefully, I’ve met the criteria for civility, but I will say that comparisons between the 1975 Reds and the 2012 Reds are somewhat bizarre. Finding data to support these comparisons is fairly easy in baseball, as are reasons to say that the two teams come from separate eras, played in completely different surroundings with different notions on strategy. The competition was different.
What we are doing is bluffing our way through a vague connection between Sparky and Dusty.
Sparky had better talent. Dusty needs to work at it. I think most of us believe that Dusty isn’t doing a good job of that, and the results bear it out.
Personally, I think Dusty is not a practical choice to lead this team. We could do worse, yes, and I have no idea who would do better.
But to continue to compare this team with the best team in Reds history will be met with some resistance.
As I wrote earlier, when Baker goes 108-54, I will consider him on a level with Sparky Anderson.
@67stats33eyes: Whether Jacoby’s job is more difficult is a conversation that is worth pursuing on some levels. The reality is that, if it’s a tough job, get somebody in there who can do it. If that isn’t Jacoby, find somebody else.
I think we need somebody else. I don’t need 5 Hall of Famers to win this ridiculous divisional title. I just need a team that can get 10 hits every night, not 14 one night, three the next … yabba dabba doo.
@67stats33eyes: Just to be fair, batting average isn’t necessarily the best indicator of contact. For instance, Bryan LaHair is hitting .390 (3rd in MLB), but he is striking out 31% of the time this year, and only makes contact on 68% of the pitches he swings at. Obviously that is an unsustainable rate and extreme example, but it illustrates that looking at batting average isn’t always the best way to look at ability to make contact. Hanigan does make contact on 88% of the pitches he swings at, and 95% that’s in the zone.
@Johnu1: Talent, talent, talent, talent, talent. I just thought I’d mention the 5 most important differences in the two teams. Do you not understand that with this team reaching the same level of success would be a far greater accomplishment than getting the BRM to that level?
The BRM had the greatest catcher of all time, the greatest second baseman of all time, a HOFer at first, the all time hit leader at third and one of the all time best shortstops. Does anybody believe the present Reds possess that talent?
Thus Baker could do a far better job managing than Anderson and the team could have a far lower pct than the BRM. Why?
Talent, Talent, Talent, Talent, Talent…
@67stats33eyes: I don’t mind Hanigan in the 8 spot as much as some others do. The fact that he is a contact hitter suggests he is vulnerable to the GIDP ball. Maybe we’re lucky our 7 hitter is in a slump!
Hanigan’s OBP as a point of reference for this batting order may be a part of the problem, not part of the solution.
@Johnu – That’s pretty much it exactly. I personally feel that Hanigan would likely be a DP machine in the 2-hole. He makes a lof of contact, hits the ball on the ground frequently, and he runs like a catcher. As a former catcher, I hate saying it but catchers don’t tend to have the best wheels. I blame it on all the squatting and on being sore literally all the time. I love Hanigan. I think he’s a decent hitter, has good pitch recognition, and that he’s a very nice catcher. I wouldn’t hit him in the 2-hole though. Of course, he doesn’t always have to bat 8th.
@lookatthathat: And to be fair, I definitely would have spelled it “Hannigan” if I didn’t double check while I was looking up his stats
@lookatthathat: You are absolutely right about the metrics for contact. I totally agree. However, that is not the point that the conversation is based on. The premise was that Hannigan has a high OBP because he’s a good contact hitter– and no one has shown any metric to support that premise.
I on the other hand have shown that what happens outside of contact is where his OBP becomes top tier.
@67stats33eyes: I think if ANY-body expects Dusty to approach the standards of the BRM, absurd.
If I implied that the 2012 Reds ought to win 108 games, sorry. But if that’s their objective, time’s a-wastin’.
I think, what would make me happy, is that the Reds are competitive in the National League in 2012.
That would be enough.
What little I’ve seen of the league so far, as well as various TV games I’ve caught … the Reds compare — talent-wise — favorably with the league.
Finishing at or below .500 would be a disappointment and unacceptable under predictable conditions.
This doesn’t condemn Baker and I hope it’s not hyperbole to say that the current Reds are dreadfully dull, in part because of the way they are managed. Until that changes, they might win — but they will be eminently forgettable.
@lookatthathat: Thank you. I would also like to point out that spelling is a visual skill, logic is not. Spelling has nothing to do with reasoning. Any educator would tell you that.
Of course a blog poster will use it to disparage someone rather than argue their point. Any blog moderator will tell you that.
Everyone have a good day, gotta go.
If it’s all about talent and not the manager, why are we paying several million dollars to one? Instead, let’s promote David Bell from AAA, pay him $500,000 and spend the $3 million/year we save on players. Dusty Baker is nothing special.
The constant drumbeat (or is it dumbbeat) of Baker bashing gets old.
The Reds started the year batting about .200 AS A TEAM. Hard to win games hitting like that. Meanwhile, in the rotation, only Cueto and Arroyo started out strong.
Now that the team has begun hitting, the bullpen has started to jell, and Latos seems to be getting it together, the Reds are winning games, and series after series. They’ve won 9 of their last 14, after winning only 5 of their first 13.
The Reds need to find another bat to assert itself in the middle of the order, and the wins will continue to pile up. Whether that bat is Phillips, Rolen/Frazier, Ludwick/Heisey, Mesaraco, or a trade deadline deal remains to be seen.
Meanwhile, if the bullpen continues to improve with no further setbacks, we will finally see Chapman join the rotation. With Cueto, Latos, and Chapman leading the rotation, the winning should get easier and easier.
The glass is WAY MORE than half full. Sit back, take a swig, and enjoy it.
@67stats33eyes: “Is this “Redleg Nation” or have I somehow been redirected to the “I Hate Dusty Baker” home page.”
The commenters on this blog are the most astute Reds fans that exist, and the opinions are more varied than you give credit. If you’d visit more regularly instead of crashing the proceedings once a month you’d know that. Or, you can choose to spend your time on sites more sympathetic to your worldview. Oh right, when it comes to Dusty, they don’t exist. So maybe you should just be grateful a forum like this exists. I know I am.
@earmbrister: I think the solution to the #4 hole is Mesoraco. Granted, that won’t happen for another 3 months if it does at all, but you don’t have to be a rocket surgeon to see the pop this kid has in his bat. It’s only a matter of time.
Cozart
Phillips
Votto
Mez
Bruce
Ludwick/Heisey
Stubbs
Frazier/Rolen
He can’t even get playing time, is a rookie learning one of the toughest positions in baseball and You think he should hit 4th? How about in maybe a year or two…
So..is Todd in Lousiville or Milwaukee?
Winning series after series?
Astros, Cubs, Pirates, Giants … who hoo.
And, am I misremembering the Cubs series? I seem to remember being dominated 17 of the 18 innings by a terrible team in our home park. A 1-1 record is not a series “win.” If not for the Cubs third baseman booting a routine double play (but at least it was a right-handed double play!) we get swept.
Thinking about Arroyo vs Yo tonight: Two guys who are each very capable of the “good pitcher/bad pitcher” dichotomy. Reds could hit 5HRs or be beat by 5HRs. I’m voting for Bad Gallardo tonight.
@earmbrister:
Enjoy being a .500 team that is playing at pretty much 100% heatlh while it’s two major rivals in the division are not and yet we are only .500?
Enjoy watching someone who ONLY because he is left handed he is on teh team while a more talented player wastes away in Lousiville? Enjoy watching maybe one of the best pitchers in the game be little used and misused now for going on a 3rd season?
Sorry but not sure how exactly that is all enjoyable…
@Sultan of Swaff: I also like Mesoraco in the 4 hole, but I don’t know if we will see very soon. The kid has a lot on his plate with learning the pitching staff and the league this year. Ultimately, I like your line-up, though I would try to have Stubbs circling the bases in front of Votto, whether it be at the #1, #2, or #8 spot. In another year or two, I like Billy Hamilton leading off and playing in the outfield. With Hamilton and Stubbs creating havoc on the basepaths, this team becomes much more dangerous.
@dn4192: I don’t know. I kind of like the idea if Votto/Bruce is not on the table. I’d like to hear from a player’s perspective what it really feels like to be in one spot vs. the other. I don’t buy Dusty’s “you have to learn that spot” rhetoric nearly as much. You’d like to think Mes would play “see the ball hit the ball” in any spot. Coaches could, you know, coach him situationally at each at bat.
Buster Posey didn’t have to bat 8th. I think it’s worth a shot. Worst thing you do is move him back down the order… I don’t think he’ll be psychologically harmed hitting 4th…. your point on playing time is well taken though.
@dn4192: The Reds can hardly be considered to be at 100% health, when you lose Ryan Madson (your closer), Nick Masset (a late innings guy), and Bill Bray (a key lefty) to start the season.
Chapman WILL join the rotation when the bullpen proves itself for an extended period of time.
Willie Harris is playing his way off the team; Baker is actually forcing the issue.
The Reds have started to hit, the starting pitching is improving, the bullpen is getting better, and they’ve won 9 of the last 14.
Plenty to enjoy.
@dn4192: Meso has enough time in the bigs to bat 4th. I don’t agree that he ought to hit there, but he’s got the PA’s to support it. I think some other realities about him that we tend to overlook are more glaring. He hasn’t been a particularly good catcher yet.
Doing this would more like playing a hunch, not something derived from strong evidence in the pros just yet.
@earmbrister: I would say that if trends continue, this could be a fun season. IF trends continue … and I’d agree that the injuries the team suffered are important but happened generally in the spring, so disruption was not as noticeable.
I need to see if this team can sustain momentum over a week or 10 days — maybe not win all those games, but be in contention for all of them. So far, the trends suggest strange variables that don’t make sense beyond the obvious — the team is missing some leadership.
Maybe as the stats guy points out, that isn’t the problem. If it isn’t that, then what is it?
@Steve Mancuso: Yes, we have won series after series.
The Giants and Pirates can hardly be considered bad teams. And the Reds need to, and did, win series that they should have won against the Stros and the Cubs.
As for the two games series vs the Cubs, they found a way to salvage a split.
They’ve won 9 of the last 14. I’m not celebrating it, just enjoying it. This series vs the Brewers on the road may tell us more about this team.
Meanwhile, the Yankees, with just a slightly higher payroll, are 15-13 and a bit of a mess right now. The Reds aren’t the only team with issues.
I cheer for the wins and celebrate victories as much as anyone. And I’m optimistic enough to plunk down a couple thousand dollars on season tickets.
That makes it all the more frustrating when Willie Harris bats second and Brandon Phillips bats cleanup.
I do remain optimistic that someday the Reds will be managed by someone who recognizes the #2 spot in the lineup is for a player who gets on base a lot, not for social engineering the most recent slumping hitter. I’m hopeful that eventually, our manager won’t look at players as “RBI-guys”.
Bravo. Great line.
@Matt WI:
Meso may be three years from maturing and he could just become another Alex Trevino … useful for any team that hires him.
Like all fan bases, we tend to have high hopes for young players and typically forget that this is a common event in MLB. New faces = new promise.
Meso has a ways to go to be a big-league catcher. I don’t think he’d be a total bust as a cleanup hitter but we have better options for the moment. Fill in the blank there as you will.
@Johnu1: I can see that thought process… I just didn’t understand the inference he had played well or long enough to demonstrate he should be there from a numbers perspective. The whole idea is of course based on promise.
Generally, what I see in a contending team is the ability to win games they probably ought to lose. Historically, that’s been defined as “luck being the residue of design” … so until Cincy starts winning often* in that fashion, I remain apprehensive.
* — once a week, or so.
@Matt WI: Which is not to say that he ought to automatically bat 8th. We have two or three guys who could bat 8th and we’d not be the wiser. That’s what’s frustrating is that some important components in this lineup are dreadfully inconsistent. Until that’s addressed, however that happens to occur, we can expect some odd peaks and valleys in team performance.
That’s not all on Baker, which was the intent of the thread, but it’s a dugout philosophy that says, what’s broken ought to be fixed.
We can’t always just wait for events to iron themselves out. Being 3rd and 12 back by the AS break is not a good way to go through life.
@Johnu1: Where’s the evidence he’s not a good catcher?? Let me guess, it’s because the team has a losing record when he starts, right? Or his catcher’s ERA? Small sample size white noise. I railed on the article that mentioned catcher’s W-L record two weeks ago when it was first mentioned, knowing full well it would be used as an excuse by Dusty to bury the kid and others as shorthand for his abilities as a pitch caller. It’s lazy analysis. I mean, by that logic, Mike Leake should never step foot on the mound again and Aroldis Chapman won’t give up a run the rest of the season. *facepalm*
@Sultan of Swaff: I don’t buy stats as much as some do, just what I observe. I try to not analyze beyond that. But if you want to rail on that misuse of data, I can’t fight that. Meso has a long way to go to be a good catcher. No sin in that. He’s a rookie. That’s my opinion as a fan, not a sabermetrics guru.
*I should say “anyone who goes of his/her way.” I’m not sure if 67stats33eyes is a man’s name or a woman’s name.
*anyone who goes OUT of his/her way. (Is there any way to edit/delete comments?)
Relax guys.
I’m not sure what’s so magical about the #4 spot, particularly given the fact that the current guy has a sub-.600 OPS, but whatever, Mesoraco is certainly being mishandled offensively.
If we look at how the organization is handling Mesoraco as compared to how other elite/near elite catching prospects have been handled, something is wrong:
1. Buster Posey: hit 6 or 7 right away in his first season making 25 man roster.
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2. Carlos Santana: hit 3rd immediately.
3. Matt Wieters: hit 6-8
4. Jesus Montero: Is hitting 5th (btw…is absolutely dreadful defensively, still winces when hitters swing and miss
5. Wilin Rosario: batting 7th for the Rox
Mesoraco is probably somewhere in the middle on the list overall. He’s probably the 4th or 5th best hitter Posey, Wieters, Montero, and Santana (about as close to a tossup as you can get). and was better thought of defensively than all but Posey and Wieters coming out of the minors.
The big thing to me, is that the Reds are probably the 2nd worst offensive team on the whole list, just ahead of the 2012 Mariners. And Mesoraco is hitting behind the likes of Stubbs, Heisey, Ludwick, and occasionally, Willie Harris & Wilson Valdez. I guess I should note that the only catcher on the list who wasn’t handed the everyday job is Rosario, and he recently came off a pretty bad knee injury. Mesoraco should be hitting 6th or 7th at a minimum when he is in the offense. Dusty is either being lazy (I think we all remember when Joey was a late scratch from the lineup and Miguel Cairo was inserted into the 3rd spot in the lineup), or he is being completely illogical.
I’m sure Mesoraco will start cutting into Hanigan’s playing time as the season progresses, but there is no sign that he’ll move up the order (though Dusty at least hit him 7th the other day ahead of Valdez).
Just wondering here…it appears that the Cubs have DFA Blake Dewitt who I think is a left handed hitter, would it be better for the Reds to pick him up and DFA Willie Harris if we “must” have a LH bat on the bench?
@CP: Does moving Mesoraco up in the order make an appreciable difference in the offense?
Somebody has to hit 8th and that would either be the catcher, Rolen or the LF. Is there big enough “win” there for it to matter? As of today, yes … but by next Friday, maybe not.
The issue now, I think, is whether we agree that Dusty’s overall patience with players is the proper approach.
I buy more into a better hitting instruction philosophy but that is more difficult to evaluate because of the less discernible difference it might make over a longer period of time.
@Johnu1: You make a good point—that most of the discussion on these threads is about whether Dusty should be patient or more aggressive. What I believe is the root of this issue is that most here feel he is far too patient with aging veterans and far less patient with young players. I guess we’re just looking for some basic fairness.
@dn4192: I think DeWitt has been DFA twice this year. He was decent a couple of years back, apparently has fallen off the favorites totem. Can’t be worse than Harris but probably isn’t better.
Dewitt has not impressed this year (only 29 ABS) but last year was not a total disaster – .266/.305/.413/.718. No doubt it’s Dewitt and it isn’t even close. The downside: Blake has mainly been a 2B/3B and some limited work in the corners of the outfield.
Really it shouldn’t be question between Dewitt and Harris but say, DeWitt vs. Frazier. I’d take Fraz in a New York-minute. Frazier has the “potential” to be special, not so much with Blake Dewitt. God let’s hope that whatever happens it’s not Willie but the smart money says he stays. Baker’s track record.
Oh no question it’s Frazier, but for whatever reason, Dusty/Walt feel the need for a subpar LH bat off the bench and just wondered if Dewitt might offer a tad more upside over Harris…while small, upside is upside…:D
@Sultan of Swaff: Well, we do know from history that players tend to hit their plateau and not get much better after time unless they do the Vitamin S.
But they do tend to regress pretty quickly after certain surgeries — and that’s what Rolen is clearly facing. He feels good, I imagine, but it’s clear his bat speed and range of motion are diminished.
I really think that’s the hardest thing to tell a guy, and if he’s in denial (understandable) he may expect to come out of it soon.
But I’d bet he doesn’t.
I understand Dusty’s dilemma, since he’s an old-school baseball loyalist. Most managers are, probably, at his age.
They all believe that the vets earned it and the kids have to wait their turn.
Problem is, most MLB franchises are DFA’ing guys who are 26 going on “over the hill.”
@Johnu1: You actually have it backwards. The mistake increases as the date ranges increase. And the mistake will be relatively large compared with all the media/fan focus on who should bat leadoff versus who should bat cleanup, blah, blah, blah. As long as Dusty lumps the top hitters together, the total runs expected doesn’t change much…he could put the 5 best guys’ names in a hat and blindly put together a decent lineup. Of course,fans would go berserk when they see Joey or Jay leading off…
In comparison, the difference in 2 or 3 spots in the order between a guy with potentially 100-200 extra points in OPS over Rolen, Stubbs, and Ludwick is a pretty large. Also, I guess the question for Dusty would be, if it is a mistake, even a very small one, why would you continue making it?
I don’t mind Dusty’s patience with players. But this idea that veteran players get their own little fiefdom in regards to spots in the batting lineup is NUTS and is a problem that Dusty continues to create for himself.
@CP: I suppose if we played 162 with me doing the lineup or a computer doing the lineup, the computer would probably win 85 times, mainly because it would not factor in luck.
I tend to have bad luck.
All the same, I need access to the same data and my success/failure ratio depends in large part on how I use and manage that data.
Your use of the word “potentially” is interesting because I’d work with that and the computer wouldn’t.
But the computer wouldn’t permit those fiefdoms to exist. I might.
@CP: I agree on the relax guys comment. It’s way too long a season to get all torqued about differences of opinion.
I don’t feel like Mesoraco is being mishandled simply by where he is currently batting. The guy that is most comparable on your list based on the number of games played to date is Rosario, who is backing up Ramon Hernandez in Colorado. He’s batted 6th, 7th, and 9th this year for a good offense. Frankly, the Reds offense IS BETTER than all of the other offenses you mentioned, particularly when you look at the offenses of the catchers rookie years.
DM is getting about 40% of the AB’s at the catcher position, which amounts to all of 37 AB’s.
I don’t doubt that he will be moved up in the order once he gets his bearings overall as a defensive as well as offensive player.
It’s early May. The batting order and the roster will see plenty of change by the time we see the dog days of summer.
Read, better than all of the other offenses other than Colorado.
@dn4192: Dewitt is batting .138 with a .133 OBP.
Not much of an improvement …
I continue thinking it’s a mistake to say Dusty’s main problem is “patience.” Go back to the Taveras fiasco, and you’ll see he named Taveras the team’s leadoff hitter in the off-season. Critics pointed out his low OBP, and Dusty countered by saying his OBP didn’t matter because he stole lots of bases, and insisted Taveras would get better because he was “young” (he was 27 and had played four full seasons). This was on TOP of the Patterson fiasco, from which Dusty apparently learned nothing, and it took how many months for him to realize Taveras probably wasn’t an ideal leadoff hitter? Patience can be a good thing in baseball, but Dusty just seems to operate in his own world – where certain things are “right” and other things are “wrong” and it makes no difference what’s actually happening on the field or how illogical his theories are. It’s like repeatedly sticking your hand in a fire and waiting for it to stop hurting. I don’t think “patience” is the right word for that.
@zippy: Patience with the right guys is a good thing: Albert Pujols. With the wrong guys it is a disaster: Willie Harris. The question is: does Dusty Baker know the difference?
@zippy: On some levels, the Taveras “experiment” was probably a gamble worth taking until the reality of a Baker-Jacoby offense doomed it.
The Virus only walked once or twice in the first 2 months of the season, kind of defeating his agenda of stealing 100 bases.
So all this again comes back to an overall philosophy that I see repeating itself with Reds offenses, and manifesting itself in a win-loss-win-loss results line.
If removing Baker means getting a better hitting instruction plan, then that’s what has to happen.
Willy Taveras is a symptom.
Frankly, the ongoing joke about walks clogging the bases … geez, it’s painful since it’s true.
@Johnu1:
It’s never a good experiment to guarantee the most plate appearances to a guy who rarely gets on base and has almost no power. You experiment with that kind of guy by hitting him 7th or 8th.
@zippy: 1– The Hyperbole attached to your comment about the BRM and Dusty is what causes me to respond by saying “the lengths people go to…” the Idea that there is anyone on this team (votto included) who had the skills of the top three batters on the BRM to get on base makes the comment ridiculous– I could have picked the guy who said Dusty wouldn’t have batted Ruth and Gherig three and four and made the same kind of point: “anyone out there on the field look like Ruth or Gherig”. I don’t think baker is a great manager– not because he’s an idiot, but because I don’t practice the art of Hyperbolic overstatement that is so common on all blogs– I think he’s a good manager, because I think there are far, far more good managers than great managers. I have a high bar for great managers– Torre, Weaver, Larussa (as much as I hate much of what he has brought to baseball) Cox, Leyland — and don’t feel that many who others call great are actually great.
2. I also am not arrogant enough to think that I know more than guys who have been in Major league dugouts for over 40 years. A guy actually in the dugout, with constant contact with all of the players has a tremendous advantage over we who observe from a distance.
3. I don’t lose my objectivity either. I evaluate decisions based on a wide range of factors. In the case of managers, I weigh things like talent, like payroll, like alternatives (many of the comments made here are answered in my head with “but what is the alternative”), and because I do that it becomes readily clear that people who are constantly negative never acknowledge the other side of the argument and that indicates a loss of objectivity. Simply put: If you read the game thread from yesterday, you can find almost no positive comments about Dusty and literally a hundred negative. No one holding a big league management position is 100% wrong, but if you read this blog that’s what is garnered.
4, I also regularly witness a convenient ‘everything’s Dusty’s fault’ mentality. The make up of the roster is the responsibility of the GM, yet regularly on here Baker is ripped for the make up of that roster. By the same token, it is commonly held that Baker doesn’t play young players, and is oft repeated here. Since taking over the following players have either moved into starting spots or significant roles: Cueto, Bailey, Leak, Hannigan, Votto, Cozart, Stubbs, Bruce, Heisey, Masset, Bray, Ondrusek, Chapman, Lecure, and Hoover have all come up during Baker’s regime. How can 15 of 25 players, the majority who made their ML debut or became starters under baker, be starting or playing key roles if Baker never plays kids? Yet, if you read yesterday’s game thread it’s only referenced about twenty times.
5. As well, I look at stat adjustments across the board. The stats garnered in the eight slot are as different as those garnered in the 1 or 2 hole as parks are different. Everyone will acknowledge park factors, but you won’t acknowledge batting order position as a necessary adjustment factor in evaluating a player.
6. And finally, while doing all of that, during my comments I never once felt the need to dismiss your thoughts with a personal unrelated justification like spelling. I talked about your points, if you had known what color of shirt I was wearing I am sure you would have brought that up– It’s just as relevant as spelling is to the discussion. Nor did I use the ‘you obviously don’t know what you are talking about so I won’t address anything but you personally” dodge.
@zippy: Agreed, but his Colorado numbers suggested he could get on base. Not great numbers but not evil. His OBP could/should have been higher for a leadoff guy, but still …
http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/taverwi01.shtml
@67stats33eyes: I don’t disagree with the logic that says baseball guys know more than fans, but if we intend to follow our baseball team objectively without the benefit of emotion, then let it be Strat-O-Matic. Hyperbole is what fans do. We beef when we fail, cheer when we win and always hope we will go undefeated.
If the objective of this exercise is to snatch that aspect of fandom away from us bloggers, you will likely fail. Blogs exist for that purpose and civil disagreement is a peculiar common thread.
I’ve been on other blogs, run off of other blogs because my point of view was a bit too overstated. I hopefully have learned from that.
All the same, zeal in blogging is what we’re about.
I appreciate seeing both positives and negatives in this entry. The recent typical “Positives: None.” after a loss and “Negatives: None. This was a fun game to watch.” have been getting old.
Rehashing the Taveras fiasco is painful, but instructive.
Taveras had one good year (2007) leading off in Colorado and one bad year (2008). His high 2007 OBP was due primarily to his batting .320, which was way above his career normal. He hit .258 in more AB in 2008. The obvious tell was in his BABIP for 2007, which was way above his career normal and unsustainable. The Reds signed him based on one year’s worth of data that could have been debunked in five minutes by a stats guy. The organization may have learned its collective lesson from that mistake.
But Dusty Baker *patiently* ran Taveras out there for 430+ plate appearances (.240/.275/.285) and it only stopped when Taveras got injured. Without the injury, he might have been back leading off for Baker again in 2010. And the worst of it was that Baker never really demoted Taveras from the lead-off spot that entire time.
Harris gone:
http://cincinnati.com/blogs/reds/2012/05/07/lineup-roster-move/
Wow!
@Steve Mancuso: Probably less of a disagreement than a point of view when you say his BABIP was unsustainable. The organization could have simply disagreed, which apparently is what they did. But I agree that rehashing that disaster takes us nowhere.
@67stats33eyes:
The facts are these:
I made a comment in which I stated my guess as to what Dusty’s lineup would look like if he managed the ’75 Reds. In part, it was meant to be funny (did you REALLY think I believed Dusty would platoon Armbrister and Foster?), but the main point wasn’t REALLY to comment on how Dusty would have managed the ’75 Reds, but to illustrate the silliness of doing things like saying “he’s my leadoff hitter because he’s fast” or “he bats 8th because he’s a catcher”). There was zero reason to single out this comment as “a perfect example of the lengths people will go to hate Dusty.” I don’t really care one way or the other if you want to fight about such things, but you shouldn’t lob grenades and then throw a hissy fit when one comes back your way. My original comment was about DUSTY. Your original comment was about ME. Can you see the difference there?
No, those aren’t the facts. I didn’t name you, didn’t attribute it to you, I simply talked about what you said. That’s not talking about you in anyway shape or form, that’s talking about the comment… and since I wasn’t talking about you, or to you, then it’s not lobbing a grenade at you. By the way an unattributed post that started “a perfect example of the lengths people will go to hate Dusty” was a grenade? Really? That’s a grenade? And because of that which you term a ‘grenade’, you respond with the comments I have previously outlined. And I’m the one who threw the hissy fit? Might want to re-read the post you consider a hissy fit and compare it to your response to this alleged ‘grenade’.
Seems to me that they handled Harris quite deftly.
He got a month to prove himself. He started only six games because he was struggling. He was given a couple key at-bats to try to boost his confidence. Then he was given a couple bats in mop-up time.
When nothing worked, he was DFAed. Sounds like just the right amount of patience to me.
And those of you who predicted that this wouldn’t happen — remember this next time you make a prediction.
Yeah right.
@zippy: I was never confused about and I don’t think most of us were. I’m fairly new on this board so I would prefer to not take sides on that.
I think anything about the BRM beyond humorous illustration was somewhat irrelevant.
@renbutler: Had the Reds not sent Harris back, the outcry would have been pretty brutal. Despite our belief that they do what they want with the team and the fans can want what they want, I do think that sometimes the f.o. is compelled to listen.
In addition, the guy was just not helping the team in any way. Gotta wonder how that played in the clubhouse.
Gallardo scratched tonight in favor of Marco Estrada, who is a candidate for the Cy Young Award.
@renbutler:
The team has played 27 games. Harris started 22% of them. He played in 19 games, which is 70%. And he also had an effect on games where he didn’t play, because he was using a roster spot that could have been given to a productive player. If the Reds end up losing the division by a game or two, I hope you remember these 27 games when some of us kept saying “why is Harris here instead of the guy who led the team in HR’s and RBI in spring training?”
@zippy: The Reds were 6-2 in the last eight games he appeared in, and 3-0 in his starts.
Now, make sure you read the entire post: I’m NOT saying they succeeded because of Harris — he was truly horrible, but he clearly did nothing to prevent the current surge.
His role was so small that there’s really no way you can pin any one loss, let alone multiple losses, on him.
@renbutler: Kinda makes you wonder why we get so wrapped up in all this, doesn’t it?
Score 9 in the first inning and go from there.
@renbutler:
on
Your analysis of Harris’s effect on the team is way too simplistic. This isn’t a college football team where it makes no difference how far your walk-on fourth-string punter can kick the ball. Dusty has only five position players on the bench. One is the backup catcher, one can’t play the infield, and one is (was) Willie Harris. That has an effect on EVERY game. Does Phillips get more rest if they have a quality backup? Does Dusty double-switch more often if he’s got a quality infielder to insert? Does he pinch hit Heisey now (instead of saving him for later) because he’s got another good bat on the bench if he needs one? Does Rolen play as many games if Frazier is on the team? And so on. Madson hasn’t played a single game this season — does that mean he’s had no effect on the team’s record? Aside from possibly keeping Chapman out of the starting rotation, wouldn’t that money have come in handy? (I’m not complaining about signing Madson; I’m just pointing out that you can’t judge a guy’s impact on the team by looking at win/loss records in games he starts.)
The fact is, with Willie Harris on the team the Reds are 14 and 13, 2.5 games out of first place, and that’s only because they’ve been beating up on the Cubs, Astros, and Pirates (without their best player). Harris certainly hasn’t been the biggest problem on this team, but he might have cost a few games, and those few games might turn out to be the difference between making the playoffs or not. Regardless, I just don’t see the point in defending a move that never made any sense in the first place.
@zippy: Drum,drum, drum, the constant drumbeat of Baker bashing.
You bash Baker for the “Taveras fiasco” when it was the GENERAL MANAGER’s (remember him (?), he sets the roster) only “big” signing of the off season.
Who should have lead off in 2008? Jonny Gomes? Ramon Hernandez? I’m sorry, they were reserves. For “everyday” players we had the likes of Paul Janish (.211 BA) and Adam Rosales (.213 BA). Yeah, it was one helluva roster back in 2009, as well as 2008. People bash Baker for where he batted Phillips in the order. Does anyone remember that only ONE Reds regular batted better than .280 for 2009 (Votto)?
I quote you: ” Go back to the Taveras fiasco, and you’ll see he named Taveras the team’s leadoff hitter in the off-season. Critics pointed out his low OBP, and Dusty countered by saying his OBP didn’t matter because he stole lots of bases, and insisted Taveras would get better because he was “young” (he was 27 and had played four full seasons). This was on TOP of the Patterson fiasco, from which Dusty apparently learned nothing, and it took how many months for him to realize Taveras probably wasn’t an ideal leadoff hitter?”
Taveras hit .320 with a .367 OBP in 2007. On the 2009 Reds he was an above average hitter. Face it, the roster BLEW in 2008 and 2009.
It probably took Dusty 5 minutes to realize that Taveras sucked. The question became, who do you replace him with? The great Paul Janish? The future HOF’r Adam Rosales? The 33 year old Jerry Hairston? The 30 year old Darnell McDonald? Yeah, there was also Chris Dickerson (yawn).
Please tell me who YOU would have batted leadoff in 2009. And with a roster like that, what would it have mattered?
And Zippy, know that Stubbs started 2008 in A+ ball. How early in 2009 should they have called Stubbs up to take Taveras’s place?
Cause I’m sure that the general consensus is that Stubbs was a polished hitter in 2009 …
@Steve Mancuso: Instructive? PahLeaze. Only one Reds regular batted .280 in 2009 (Votto).
The line-up choices in 2008 and 2009 were instructive in only one way: the Reds were a VERY BAD TEAM in those years.
I’d LOVE to hear how you would have set the line-up in 2009. Take a look at the roster back then. It was just FULL of studs.