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The Cincinnati Reds (11-11, 2nd place, 3.0 GB) complete the final three games of their three-team nine-game homestand against the Chicago Cubs (8-15, 6th place, 6.5 GB) Tuesday (7:10), Wednesday (7:10) and Thursday (12:35) at GABP.
Just a little over a week ago, these two teams faced off for three cold, miserable weather days in Chicago. We’ll find out if Dusty Baker is right about this Reds club being a warm weather team as the high temperature is expected to be over 80 degrees all week in Cincinnati.
CHICAGO’S BIGGEST OFFSEASON MOVE
The 2012 season is clearly a rebuilding year for the Chicago Cubs. Looking to move in a better direction this decade, the Cubs ownership’s biggest move this offseason was acquiring the front office minds of Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer. The Cubs hope that Epstein’s approach in Boston will lead to curse breaking performances in Chicago. MLB Trade Rumors compared the tenures of the outgoing and incoming Cub executives with their corresponding clubs:
Jim Hendry and Theo Epstein became GMs within months of each other in 2002, aiming to bring championships to teams with long histories of losing. Hendry fell short with the Cubs, creating three playoff teams in nine years and failing to reach the World Series. Epstein reached the playoffs twice as often in the same amount of time with the Red Sox, winning it all twice. But after missing the playoffs the last two years in Boston — and in epic fashion in 2011 — Epstein was ready for a new challenge and the Sox were willing to let him go with a year remaining on his contract. Cubs owner Tom Ricketts, long an admirer of the Red Sox model, signed Epstein to a record-setting five-year, $18.5MM contract to become the team’s president of baseball operations.
The Cubs have been winning since Reds left Wrigley. / David Banks-US PRESSWIRE
SINCE THEY LAST MET
When the Reds left Chicago nine days ago, the Cubs were looking at a 4-12 record and already seven games back in the division. They had allowed 5.1 runs per game through their first 16. However, they’ve received much better pitching in the past week against the Cardinals and Phillies, holding those two teams to 3.1 runs per game. The Cubs come to Cincinnati having won as many games (4) in the last seven days as they had in their first 16.
After a rough start to 2011, the Reds finally got back to .500 at the close of April baseball. Overall the Reds averaged 4.0 runs scored per game and allowed 4.1 runs per game. However, the team started out scoring just 2.8 runs per game over their first 12 games while allowing 4.4 runs per game. The Reds scored exactly one run six times in those first 12 contests.
The offense has been much better recently. Over their last ten games, which includes the last Cubs series, the Reds have gone 7-3, averaged 5.4 runs/game, and have scored less than 4 runs in a game just once. Team pitching also improved during this recent period to cut opponents scoring to 3.7 runs/game.
CHANGES TO THE ROSTERS
CUBS
–Ryan Dempster, SP – Placed on DL, retroactive to April 18. Missed the final start of the previous series between these two teams but is scheduled to return in game 3 of this series.
–Tony Campana, CF – A native of Kettering, Ohio, Campana was the official replacement for Dempster when he went on the DL. The speedy Campana has been playing centerfield and batting at the top of the lineup most days. He’s been one of the Cubs hottest hitter last week (.370/.414/.370) with 7 stolen bases in 9 games.
–Marlon Byrd, CF – The Cubs traded Marlon Byrd to the Boston Red Sox for RHP Michael Bowden and a PTBNL.
–Welington Castillo, C – Recalled from AAA retroactive to April 26 to replace injured backup catcher Steve Clevenger.
REDS
–Bill Bray, RP – Placed on the 15-day DL, retroactive to April 19. Currently on a rehab assignment with AAA Louisville.
–J. J. Hoover, RP – Recalled to replace Bill Bray in the bullpen: 3ip, 0h, 0er, 2bb, 2K.
PROBABLE STARTING PITCHERS
• Tues: Jeff Samardzija (2-1, 4.13 ERA) vs. Bronson Arroyo (1-0, 2.70 ERA)
• Wed: Paul Maholm (2-2, 6.20 ERA) vs. Homer Bailey (1-2, 3.60 ERA)
• Thurs: Ryan Dempster (0-1, 1.33 ERA) vs. Mike Leake (0-3, 6.65 ERA)
Merrillville, Indiana native Jeff Samardzija is in his 5th major league season, all with the Cubs. In his four starts this year, Samardzija has had two quality starts and two poor outings. He’s coming off 6.2 inning shutout performance in his last start against the St. Louis Cardinals. Samardzija has been plagued with control problems in his major league career, walking 5.0 batters per 9.
Paul Maholm started the season with back-to-back four-inning, six-run outings. He has since gone back-to-back six-inning, one-run outings, including a win last weekend against Cincinnati. Paul Maholm always seems to pitch well against Cincinnati. In 20 career starts against Cincinnati, Maholm is 7-4 with a 3.70 ERA.
Former Red Ryan Dempster is expected to return to the rotation on Thursday. He made three starts, all quality starts, before going on the DL.
STARTING POSITION PLAYERS AND TYPICAL LINEUP
1. David DeJesus (L) RF
2. Tony Campana (L) CF
3. Starlin Castro (R) SS
4. Bryan LaHair (L) 1B
5. Alfonso Soriano (R) LF
6. Ian Stewart (L) 3B
7. Darwin Barney (R) 2B
8. Geovany Soto (R) C
If this is the lineup that Dale Sveum runs out there, their first four batters all sport an OBP greater than .350. Brian LaHair (.390/.471/.780) is off to a hot start as the team’s first baseman and cleanup batter.
Even with LaHair’s great start, Anthony Rizzo (.378/.427/.671 with AAA Iowa) is trying to force his way onto the Cubs roster. The Cubs acquired the 1st base prospect from the Padres after the Padres had acquired Yonder Alonso from Cincinnati. LaHair has played some corner outfield with the club, leading to increasing speculation that Rizzo could be called up soon with LaHair moving to the outfield.
The bottom half of the order features a number of struggling hitters. Alfonso Soriano (.513 OPS) has just two extra base hits and is still looking for his first homerun. Geovany Soto, (.127/.226/.236) who edged out Joey Votto for 2008 Rookie of the Year, is barely edging out Reds Willie Harris in production so far this year in almost twice as many plate appearances.
CONCLUDING THOUGHTS
This is the type of team that the Reds need to beat and the type of series that the Reds need to continue to win. Mike Leake probably still has a bit of length left in his leash, but I can’t imagine him continuing to pitch this way throughout the month of May and still have a rotation job by the end of the month.
Lest we forget, Tony Campana was born in Kettering, but grew up in Springboro. Therefore, he should be referred to as “Tony from Springboro”.
I just want Tony to pop up four times.
I do want to add, as a resident of the area, that it is MERRILLVILLE, not Merryville. People there don’t pronounce the “L” in the word. Smardzy also lives in Valparaiso, down the street from my house. I don’t get to see him much. Well, never.
@Johnu1: Oops! Sorry. Typo on my part. Yes, I was spelling it the way I pronounce it, not the way it is listed. I’ll fix that.
Im sorry to be the pessimist, but that Game 3 matchup does not look good for the Reds. Dempster typically pitches well against the Reds and Leake has really been struggling. Hopefully he proves me wrong. By the way, maybe Im fairly new this site, but these series previews are simply wonderful to read. Great job, Redleg Nation!
@RC: So Tony was pushing for Votto’s exit via Hal to make a homecoming as the regular 1st baseman for the Reds! He called himself Richard because he knew he was being a dick about it! It all makes sense.
According to ESPN, Leake is pitching over Bailey and Cueto is going against Jeff S.
@rightsaidred: I can neither confirm nor deny your theory, although it is extrememly well reasoned and fits all the available facts.
“Looking to move in a better direction this decade”. Was this a typo? Didn’t you mean century??
So … a big fan of having tons of money to spend. Got it.
As the series starts, I’m left with this question:
Did the screwing of Todd Frazier–The Sequel occur yet? I’m curious about the return of Miguel Cairo, and who gets bumped. Well, curious is one word, skeptical is another…I fear that because Free Willie has actually had a few hits the last two weeks (he’s actually edged ONTO the “interstate” — his batting average begins with a 1, not a zero now — that’s the same “interstate” other players are derided for being on), he’s bought himself another month or two on the roster………Please, please let this prove to be misplaced pessimism.
@rfay00: Not sure what you are looking at, but the MLB & ESPN pages I looked at both list Arroyo, Bailey, Leake for the upcoming series, which is the order they each made their last appearance.
@vegastypo: Given how hot Frazier has been as a pinch hitter, it completely deflates any rationale for keeping Harris on the roster when Cairo is reinstated. You still have Valdez and Janish and Valaika. Oh, right, none of them are left handed. NEVER MIND.
Couldn’t we just get Frazier to become a switch hitter? I mean, if he makes contact once in 10 tries, that qualifies as efficiency.
The question really should be if Frazier just switched sides of the plate, could he still out produce Harris?
@Johnu1: Bah, beat me to it.
I think this outing for Leake is HUGE. If he can’t put up at least 6 strong innings vs. a poor Cub team at home I think we would have to consdier a brief demotion to AAA to work with Ted and bring up Jeff Francis to take his next few outings. I am a huge Leake fan but as shown last year he can handle a demotion, work on whatever issues he is having and return strong and given “whom” we are playing after the Cubs, I would hate to see Leake get hammared.
So..with an upcoming trip to NYC to play the Yankeess…who wants to bet that Mr. Harris will see time as the DH in that 3 game series, especially if we are facing any right handers…
@Josh M: Creative minds, I suppose … I just keep looking through the hardware websites in search of a wedge we could hire to use instead of Willie.
As I’ve watched Leake, as the expert on pitching that I have become, the guy has to keep the ball low and on the corners. He’s Jamie Moyer without the experience. Since that’s really a matter of mechanics, another stint at Louisville would help — for awhile. He just needs to buck it up and become a big-league pitcher.
I’m usually the one calling for guys to get sent out on this site (Harris and many others), but this seems extreme to me. Become a big league pitcher?
Leake put up a 3.86 ERA over 170 innings last year, and was clearly the Reds’ best starter not named Cueto. He’s got a better CAREER winning percentage and ERA than Arroyo, Homer Bailey, and Jeff Francis.
So why can’t this guy get any respect? Just because he’s short? He’s not Jamie Moyer, his average fastball is 90mph this year. Moyer’s is 77.
I agree that Leake’s start is important, and that he can’t keep this up forever without losing his job. But c’mon, the guy has proven more than a lot of people who get a pass on this team.
Paul Janish is on the DL with a fractured wrist.
Hanigan/Mesoraco: http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/23702/hanigan-deserves-to-play-over-mesoraco&ex_cid=MyESPNToday_Team
@Steve Mancuso: Hamilton one step closer to Cincinnati. With that said, I wish Paul Janish a speedy recovery. I always really liked him.
@hermanbates: There’s nowhere for Hamilton to play. He’s trade bait now that the Reds have done the Phillips extension. That’s why I didn’t like the Phillips contract nearly as much as the Votto one. We seem to have good, far less expensive, players in the pipeline at 2B. I’m no expert on Hamilton or the other middle infield players we have in the minors, though.
You find a spot for a guy like that, move him to the OF.
How much of an improvement, if at all, is he over our current OF? Hamilton steals bases, that’s about it. If you move him to a new position, he may not even be an average fielder. If he’s a .300 hitter with zero power, and doesn’t have great defensive skills in his new position, I don’t see that as an upgrade.
he doesn’t JUST steal bases, he gets on base and steals bases at a historic pace. If you subtract his caught stealings from his OBP and add a base for every SB to his SLG (a pretty standard adjustment for speedsters), he ends up with an adjust OPS of .886 for his career.
With his speed he should be able to track down plenty in center field. If he could come close to putting up those numbers in CF at the big league level he would be a huge asset.
Are we sure that Stubbs is “fixed” yet? I mean, short of that small stretch where we put him at #2 and decided to make our rookie starting SS also get the added pressure of being the leadoff hitter (terrible decision, way too much pressure to put on the guy), has he really been significantly better?
He’s 27, going to be 28 in October. If he hasn’t figured it out by this year, he won’t ever, and probably won’t be back. His BA has dropped every year in the majors, and his strikeouts have risen every year in the majors.
You say a .300 batter with no power and not great defense isn’t an improvement, I say that’s .050 higher than we’re going to get from Stubbs (roughly 30 hits) that can be added onto with the potential of a record number of stolen bases. I would make that trade off and hope I can get some prospects for Stubbs.
Plus hopefully Hamilton can be lead off so we could convince Baker that two Lefties in a row isn’t just asking to be smote, and then put Phillips at 5.
This guy is a game changer on the bases. He steals bases at a historic level. You don’t think down the road he could be more of an asset in LF than Ludwick/Heisey?
Really bad weather forecast for here tonight. Violent storms possible. Weather Channel is showing 100% chance of rain at 7 p.m. It’s very warm. Just lots of rain threatening.
@AnnapolisHoosier: While catcher ERA is a pretty flawed stat, Hannigan is obviously the superior catcher right now. I’ve been amazed with how many trips to the mound Mesoraco has to make every game. He’s just not there yet in terms of being able to manage the game.
I don’t really think there’s an issue though. I figured they’d split time pretty evenly and I still think they will by the end of the year.
The interesting point in that article to me was about Hannigan at the plate. I think he would be an ideal #2 hitter and I’m not sure why Dusty doesn’t see that. Dusty is always talking about how you need a guy who makes contact and can move guys over. Who’s better at that on the Reds than Hannigan?
Well, I checked. The only guy on the Reds with a higher contact% than Hannigan is Mesoraco. Huh. The kid is hitting pretty well.
I would like to see:
Cozart
Hannigan
Votto
Bruce
Phillips
Heisey
Rolen
Stubbs
I live about 20 miles north of the stadium and it’s pouring rain right now, storming. We’ve been lucky this year with the weather. I wouldn’t be surprised if this one gets called, especially at the start of the series.
I’ve made this comment to lots of folks over the last year who try to evaluate the Reds lineup as Dusty would use it. Dusty isn’t going to be around next year, probably. To assume this or that based on WWDD, I say … think outside the box. With Dusty gone, so goeth his coaches. What difference is that? Can’t say, we might need to be careful what we wish for. Or not. But planning a season around Dusty in 2013 is just short-sighted.
Hamilton is still at A ball. Even if he does great and gets promoted in season to AA, at best he might get a Sept call up.
@earl: I don’t think anyone is worried about making space for Hamilton this year. The discussion was: now that you have Cozart looking like a fixture at short for the next 4+ years, and Phillips signing his 5 year extension, is Hamilton blocked long term.
It wouldn’t surprise me to see Hamilton end this year in AAA. That means as early as 2013 he could be putting pressure on the Reds to make space for him if he’s hitting.
Mesoraco has been doing well this year if dustly would give him more starts he would have higher numbers and it would be so rude of dusty not to play mesoraco on fridays night game vs. the pirates he should play 2 out of the 3 games in my opinion